TNF - Panthers at Broncos
By Tony Mejia
Carolina (-3, 41.5) at Denver, NBC
With apologies to Carolina's Ron Rivera, who doesn’t feel it’s “fair” that the reigning NFC champion has to open the season on the road with a Super Bowl rematch against the Broncos, he’s definitely in the minority when it comes to individuals not looking forward to this matchup.
Rivera’s quarterback appears to be in his coach’s corner.
"A lot of people want to make it a rematch. It's not a rematch," Newton told the Associated Press. "It's just our next opponent."
There’s no point in getting too wrapped up in semantics, but the fact is it’s clear that the Panthers are still raw over their Super Bowl 50 loss and not thrilled with having to travel nearly all the way across the country to open the 2016 regular season. It now remains to be seen whether they can channel that frustration into making life miserable for new Denver starting quarterback Trevor Siemian, whose first pass in this game will be the first of his NFL career.
While Peyton Manning was dreadful throughout most of his final season and didn’t have a great Super Bowl (13-for-23, 141 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT), his value came in getting the Broncos out of plays that would be blown up by the Panthers, not to mention keeping the rest of the offense loose despite the magnitude of the game. Experience mattered. Siemian doesn’t bring that intangible to the table, but will have a homefield advantage in his back pocket to try and make his life easier against a stingy Carolina defense.
Newton committed costly turnovers in the Super Bowl and ended up a rather ordinary 18-for-41 for 265 yards, adding another 45 on the ground through six carries. It was hardly a Superman-like effort, which led to a controversial post-game press conference and Super Bowl MVP Von Miller clowning the regular-season MVP all offseason. We’re about to see how effective a vengeful Newton can be.
Carolina Panthers
Season win total: 10.5 (Over +120)
Odds to win NFC South: 4/13
Odds to win NFC: 6/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 12/1
Denver Broncos
Season win total: 9.5 (Over +130)
Odds to win AFC West: 12/5
Odds to win AFC: 7/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 25/1
LINE MOVEMENT
When the Westgate SuperBook opened Week 1 numbers April 15, Denver was originally listed as a 3-point favorite. Carolina is now the 3-point 'chalk', although the total remains about the same. Weeks before the NFL Draft, WestgateLV placed the total at 43.5. It's currently available at 41.5 there and at most shops.
The unproven Siemian winning the gig over Mark Sanchez, who was ultimately released and landed in Dallas, undoubtedly affected this number despite Denver's homefield edge. Including the postseason, the Broncos are 32-6 straight up at Invesco Field at Mile High.
DENVER D DOMINATES
Miller had a sack, a hurry and a tackle for loss in his final preseason showing, so he seems quite ready for the season to begin. A bigger question mark would have to be standout corner Aqib Talib, whose last play in the Aug. 27 win over the Rams was a late hit on Case Keenum that was whistled for an unnecessary roughness penalty. Talib, who was shot in the leg back in June in an incident Dallas police is still investigating, hasn’t been suspended and will line up in his usual spot at left cornerback opposite standout Chris Harris despite rumors that he can be had for the right offer. Safeties Darian Stewart and T.J. Ward also return in the secondary, Of the 11 Denver defensive starters that lined up in Super Bowl 50, nine return. Only DE Malik Jackson (Jaguars) and LB Danny Trevathan (Bears) are elsewhere, which means the Broncos have a great chance to pick up where they left off. It should be noted that Denver only surrendered more than 20 points in one of their last eight contests, holding the Steelers, Patriots and Panthers to an average of 14.7 points in dominating the postseason.
BENJAMIN RETURNS
After tearing his ACL last August, former top Carolina wideout Kelvin Benjamin will return to action, albeit on a limited snap count. According to Rivera, he sees a target of 35 snaps for Benjamin and would be willing to let him surpass that if he looks like his normal self. Benjamin, a 6-5 freak of a red zone target who had 1,008 receiving yards and nine touchdowns as a rookie, caught six passes for 61 yards in three preseason games. Between Benjamin, 6-foot-4 Devin Funchess and 6-5 tight end Greg Olsen, Newton will have massive weapons to try and solve Denver’s defense.
CAM LOOKS TO BOUNCE BACK
Newton accounted for 45 of the Panthers’ 59 touchdowns last season — 35 passing and 10 more rushing. It looked almost unfair that he was able to lead the Panthers to an average of 40 points per game in wins over the Seahawks and Cardinals to get out of the NFC, but he was overwhelmed in the Super Bowl, which is all anyone remembers. It's further disconcerting that Newton was picked off twice in the preseason dress rehearsal game against New England, finishing just 13-for-29 for 100 yards while putting up just 3 points with the first-team offense. Although Carolina went 15-1 during last year’s regular season, Newton is just 14-18 in his career coming off a loss.
RECENT MEETINGS (Denver 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS last five; UNDER 4-1)
2/7/16 Denver 24-10 vs. Carolina in Santa Clara, CA (CAR -4,5, 43)
11/11/12 Denver 36-14 at Carolina (DEN -3.5, 43.5)
12/14/08 Denver at Carolina 30-10 (CAR -7.5, 48)
10/10/04 Carolina at Denver 20-17 (DEN -4, 38)
11/9/97 Carolina at Denver 34-0 (DEN -8, 42)
DENVER OFFENSE SEEKS REDEMPTION
Because Manning and the offense were carried to the Super Bowl 50 victory by the defense, this Broncos offense does carry a chip on their shoulder entering this one. Look for them to keep life simple for Siemian, who will become the first quarterback ever to start for a reigning NFL champion without a single pass to his credit. He started just 14 games at Northwestern and tore his ACL in his senior season, but he’s won Denver teammates over with his intelligence and ability to translate what he’s learned on to the field. It’s unlikely that he gets pulled due to performance, but it should be noted that while the Broncos defense rightfully gets the bulk of the attention in this matchup, Carolina is also loaded on that side of the ball, returning six of its starting front seven from last year’s Super Bowl intact. Only the retired Jared Allen, replaced by veteran Kony Ealy will be absent, although the secondary has a new look with standouts Josh Norman (Washington) and Roman Harper (New Orleans) gone. If Siemian struggles mightily or is injured, rookie Paxton Lynch is likely to see his first action.
PANTHERS AS ROAD FAVORITE
Carolina was 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS in this role last season, losing only in Atlanta on Dec. 27 in suffering their only regular-season setback of 2015. The Panthers were a road dog in every game they played in 2014 and were 3-2 SU (1-4 ATS) in this role in '13.
BRONCOS AS A HOME DOG
As you might expect, the Broncos don’t have a lot of experience as an underdog at Mile High, but did just get the job done in sending Tom Brady and the Patriots home in last year’s AFC Championship game as a 3-point dog. They were also getting 2.5 when they beat New England on Nov. 29 during the regular season and blew out Green Bay 29-10 on Nov. 1 of last year when also getting 2.5. Beyond 2015, you have to go back all the way to 2012 for Denver’s last game as a home underdog, a 31-25 loss to Houston when getting just 1.5.
NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED
The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 2 has the Broncos as 3.5-point home favorites over the Colts. Meanwhile, the Panthers are listed at -13.5 at home against the 49ers, by far the largest spread in Week 2.
