Thursday 9/4/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Sep 4, 2014

NEWSLETTER College Football Prediction From Indian Cowboy

Take #302 Texas San Antonio +7 over Arizona (8 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 4)
I will have five or six picks going this weekend for my rated service, but I wanted to get this one out there for everyone. If you wait, you can probably get 7.5 or even closer to 8 by game time as the public is noticeably heavy on Arizona. You can call me crazy but I actually believe Texas San Antonio is going to get Arizona absolute fits on Thursday Night Football. We would not be a bit surprised to see Texas San Antonio take an early half-time lead into this contest. Stop and think about as to why a Pac team would only be favored by a touchdown over a relative newcomer in Texas San Antonio on the national scene? It’s because Texas has and will always be a bed rock of talent, and this Texas San Antonio team is one of the best unknown teams in the country. They will be soon be known following this Primetime Thursday Night Contest. Note that these two teams played last year, with Arizona winning 38-13 at home and UTSA covered as a 25.5-point underdog, and now they find themselves as just a 7-point underdog at home a year later. With revenge, with Arizona coming off a big win and UTSA having 6 straight wins dating back to last year, look for this contest to be much closer than people expect, and I have UTSA falling within the touchdown spread here.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Sep 4, 2014

DAVE COKIN

Wiseguy Action Report (CFB + NFL)

Welcome to another edition of Wise Guy Wednesday. This is my weekly rundown of where the early pro dough is going in both college football and the NFL. The info is gathered from various sources, including local, contacts I’ve got offshore, as well as stateside books outside of Nevada.

It’s always worth mentioning that early week line moves, even those that are the most significant in terms of variance from the true opener, are not automatically wise guy moves. There are a few notable services that release early selections, and absolutely create line movement in the process. Plus, there are games that draw the vast majority of the early action, enough so that the prices change, but are not considered pro plays. Comments are from the sources, as I try to leave my own opinions out of this rundown. Let’s go!

302 UTSA was a major pro mover in Week One and the Roadrunners blasted Houston. It looks as though they’re getting bought again, although it’s nowhere near as heavy as last time.

310 Iowa State is getting some tepid support, although the general consensus seems to be that this might be more maneuvering to influence the number and that Kansas State could get bought back late. The public will be on the Wildcats on game day.

325 Arkansas State is drawing some sharp action. Some brief elaboration here. The biggest difference between Pros and Joes is that the latter segment of the betting population only remembers the last thing they saw and reacts accordingly. Tennessee just mauled a Utah State team that drew a load of sharp money last week. The public now wants nothing to do with going against the Vols. The pros are never as easily convinced and they’re taking the road dog right now.

331 New Mexico State is mildly popular with the wise guys. But this is an ugly game with zero marquee appeal, so even a trickle of pro money is going to impact the line, which it already has.

339 USC is getting play, and I’m getting varying opinions on what this number will do as the week progresses. One of my east coast guys is convinced this will be Clemson/Georgia all over again and that after getting dog action throughout the week, he is adamant there’s going to be a late flood of sharp dollars on Stanford.

341 Akron got hit hard early and the line in their game with Penn State has been the biggest mover of the week. But note this might not be true pro money. Direct comment from one contact was “I knew we’d get all dog play early as everyone wants to play against Penn State off the long trip and that crazy finish. We’re not stupid. That’s already built into the line.”

352 Oregon took sharp action early. The consensus is that the squares will buy the dog here, and the pros are going to come back and take more Ducks later.

383 Air Force has already moved from dog to favorite and the expectation is that this number might keep going up. In other words, this is one of those if you snoozed, you lose games.

Moving to the NFL:

469 Jaguars figured to be an auto-play for the sharps as they always grab doubles if available in Week One.

478 Texans are looking like a popular pro side, although it’s not overwhelming.

479 Titans is clearly shaping up as the pros/joes battleground game of the week with the sharps hitting the dog in a big way. Opinion among my contacts is that the amateurs are going to bet on KC on game day.

484 Buccaneers is the other very hot pro choice to open the week, and Tampa Bay is also taking public money as well. Thus, there’s little value to be had on that matchup as that ship has already sailed, so to speak.