Jim Feist
Comp MLB Pick for Thursday, September 4, 2014: 7:10 PM EST
(953) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS VS (954) SAN DIEGO PADRES
Take: (953) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Reason: Your free pick for Thursday, September 4th, 2014, comes in baseball as Arizona and the Diamondbacks meet at Petco Park in San Diego, California. San Diego is favored despite the worst offense in baseball. That struggling offense faces a good arm in Arizona's Vidal Nuno, who has allowed 1, 2, 2, 2 and 2 runs the last five starts. Nuno pitched eight excellent innings on Saturday against the Rockies, as he allowed one run on only two hits while striking out seven hitters. He has a 2.45 ERA against San Diego this season allowing 2 hits in 7 innings! Ian Kennedy has a losing record overall and has been getting hit, allowing 10 runs his last three starts (17+ innings). He has a 5.06 ERA against Arizona this season and a losing home mark. Play Arizona!
Comp MLB Pick for Thursday, September 4, 2014: 7:10 PM EST
(953) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS VS (954) SAN DIEGO PADRES
Take: (953) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Reason: Your free pick for Thursday, September 4th, 2014, comes in baseball as Arizona and the Diamondbacks meet at Petco Park in San Diego, California. San Diego is favored despite the worst offense in baseball. That struggling offense faces a good arm in Arizona's Vidal Nuno, who has allowed 1, 2, 2, 2 and 2 runs the last five starts. Nuno pitched eight excellent innings on Saturday against the Rockies, as he allowed one run on only two hits while striking out seven hitters. He has a 2.45 ERA against San Diego this season allowing 2 hits in 7 innings! Ian Kennedy has a losing record overall and has been getting hit, allowing 10 runs his last three starts (17+ innings). He has a 5.06 ERA against Arizona this season and a losing home mark. Play Arizona!
Ben Burns
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Indians
Bonus Play Detroit Tigers
After taking the first two games of this series in Cleveland, the Tigers got shutout on Wednesday. I expect them to bounce back and take Thursday's finale.
Give Cleveland some credit for dusting itself off after a painful loss on Tuesday where they allowed a 3-run HR in the top of the ninth that was the difference. But they also lost 12-1 on Monday. The odds are not in their favor tonight as Max Scherzer is pitching for Detroit. The Cy Young winner, despite some recent struggles, still has a 19-9 team start record.
Scherzer has typically been very good in this spot. He has a 15-1 TSR his last 16 Thursday starts and 12-2 TSR in the fourth game of a series.
Also, I feel it should be noted Detroit was not favored on the money line last night. They are here, looking to extend a 5-0 run as a road fave of -110 to -150.
Trevor Bauer gets the nod for the Tribe. The team has won his last four starts and he has a 2-0 record this year vs. the Tigers in three starts. But his ERA is 4.42. Look for Detroit to make it 3 of 4 in this series. 1* Bonus Play.
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Indians
Bonus Play Detroit Tigers
After taking the first two games of this series in Cleveland, the Tigers got shutout on Wednesday. I expect them to bounce back and take Thursday's finale.
Give Cleveland some credit for dusting itself off after a painful loss on Tuesday where they allowed a 3-run HR in the top of the ninth that was the difference. But they also lost 12-1 on Monday. The odds are not in their favor tonight as Max Scherzer is pitching for Detroit. The Cy Young winner, despite some recent struggles, still has a 19-9 team start record.
Scherzer has typically been very good in this spot. He has a 15-1 TSR his last 16 Thursday starts and 12-2 TSR in the fourth game of a series.
Also, I feel it should be noted Detroit was not favored on the money line last night. They are here, looking to extend a 5-0 run as a road fave of -110 to -150.
Trevor Bauer gets the nod for the Tribe. The team has won his last four starts and he has a 2-0 record this year vs. the Tigers in three starts. But his ERA is 4.42. Look for Detroit to make it 3 of 4 in this series. 1* Bonus Play.
Matt Fargo
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Bonus Play Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto locked up its first series win in Tampa Bay since 2007 after winning last night and tonight it will go for the sweep as it looks to keep its playoff hopes alive. The Blue Jays have won four straight games and they need to keep taking advantage of the soft early part of September as including tonight, the next 10 games are against teams with a losing record before closing the season with 14 games against winning teams and that is where ground can be made up as long as they don't falter now. They are a respectable two games under .500 on the road and have won five straight games as an underdog. Tampa Bay has fallen apart after a mid-August run as it is 6-12 over its last 18 games including losses in eight of 11 at home. The Rays used to possess one of the best home field edges in baseball but this season they are nine games under .500 here. Mark Buehrle gets the ball for Toronto and he has not had a great few weeks as he has been all over the place. The good news is that he has dominated Tampa Bay this year, posting a 2.70 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in four starts, all resulting in Toronto wins. Going back, the Blue Jays are 19-4 in Buehrle's last 23 starts against teams with a losing record. The Rays counter with Jake Odorizzi who has been pretty solid this season and he is coming off one of his best starts of the year as he allowed just one hit and no runs in seven innings against the Red Sox. This was the third time he allowed just one hit in a start and in the other two follow up starts, the Rays lost. The Rays are 3-9 in Odorizzi's last 12 starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Play (959) Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Bonus Play Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto locked up its first series win in Tampa Bay since 2007 after winning last night and tonight it will go for the sweep as it looks to keep its playoff hopes alive. The Blue Jays have won four straight games and they need to keep taking advantage of the soft early part of September as including tonight, the next 10 games are against teams with a losing record before closing the season with 14 games against winning teams and that is where ground can be made up as long as they don't falter now. They are a respectable two games under .500 on the road and have won five straight games as an underdog. Tampa Bay has fallen apart after a mid-August run as it is 6-12 over its last 18 games including losses in eight of 11 at home. The Rays used to possess one of the best home field edges in baseball but this season they are nine games under .500 here. Mark Buehrle gets the ball for Toronto and he has not had a great few weeks as he has been all over the place. The good news is that he has dominated Tampa Bay this year, posting a 2.70 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in four starts, all resulting in Toronto wins. Going back, the Blue Jays are 19-4 in Buehrle's last 23 starts against teams with a losing record. The Rays counter with Jake Odorizzi who has been pretty solid this season and he is coming off one of his best starts of the year as he allowed just one hit and no runs in seven innings against the Red Sox. This was the third time he allowed just one hit in a start and in the other two follow up starts, the Rays lost. The Rays are 3-9 in Odorizzi's last 12 starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Play (959) Toronto Blue Jays
Jimmy Adams
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Bonus Play St. Louis Cardinals
The Brewers are a pure “Fade” team right now, plain and simple. This squad has lost 8 games in a row and just got their doors blown off by the subpar Cubs. They were outscored 17-5 in that series and are hitting just .211 since beginning this losing streak. To make matters worse, Carlos Gomez went down with an injured left wrist and Ryan Braun’s status is uncertain due to the birth of his child. The Brew Crew has given up the division lead due to this stretch of poor play, and they gave it to the team that’s coming into Miller Park tonight.
St. Louis is playing solid baseball right now, winners of 5 straight. They’ve won 7 of 12 meetings this year vs. Milwaukee and have also taken 12 of their last 16 at Miller Park. Michael Wacha comes off the disabled list for this one. He’s pitched well all year long and shouldn’t miss a beat facing the shorthanded Brewers lineup.
It’s Wily Peralta on the other side, a guy who gave up 6 runs in just 3 innings in his last start. Peralta has allowed a whopping 14 runs in just 8 innings throughout his last 2 starts. Something is clearly wrong with this guy, and he’s not likely to figure it out tonight. Take the Cardinals.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Bonus Play St. Louis Cardinals
The Brewers are a pure “Fade” team right now, plain and simple. This squad has lost 8 games in a row and just got their doors blown off by the subpar Cubs. They were outscored 17-5 in that series and are hitting just .211 since beginning this losing streak. To make matters worse, Carlos Gomez went down with an injured left wrist and Ryan Braun’s status is uncertain due to the birth of his child. The Brew Crew has given up the division lead due to this stretch of poor play, and they gave it to the team that’s coming into Miller Park tonight.
St. Louis is playing solid baseball right now, winners of 5 straight. They’ve won 7 of 12 meetings this year vs. Milwaukee and have also taken 12 of their last 16 at Miller Park. Michael Wacha comes off the disabled list for this one. He’s pitched well all year long and shouldn’t miss a beat facing the shorthanded Brewers lineup.
It’s Wily Peralta on the other side, a guy who gave up 6 runs in just 3 innings in his last start. Peralta has allowed a whopping 14 runs in just 8 innings throughout his last 2 starts. Something is clearly wrong with this guy, and he’s not likely to figure it out tonight. Take the Cardinals.
Will Rogers
Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins
1* Bonus Play Over the Total
The Minnesota Twins scored five runs in the bottom of the fifth inning last night, defeating the White Sox by a score of 11-4. They will host the Angels in Game 1 of a four game set at Target Field tonight, and after seeing almost 100 runs (97) cross the plate in the last six games at Target Field, another high scoring tilt wouldn't surprise anyone.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Twins will send Kyle Gibson to the hill, and he's really struggled at home lately. Gibson (11-10, 4.23 ERA) was torched for 10 runs on 16 hits over 10 innings in losses to Detroit and Cleveland in his last two home starts. He has only pitched two innings versus the Angels this year, but that was a complete disaster, allowing seven runs before getting the hook. The Halos counter with Hector Santiago, who has struggled on the road this year.
2. Kennys Vargas - The 24 year old has impressed since joining the Twins, hitting .319 with six home runs and 31 RBIs in just 32 games. He's hit home runs in each of his last two games at Target Field.
3. X-Factor - These teams have trended toward high scoring games, with the total going over at a rate of 31-15-5 over the last 51 head to head meetings.
Selection: This is a play on the Angels@Twins to go OVER the Total (Free)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins
1* Bonus Play Over the Total
The Minnesota Twins scored five runs in the bottom of the fifth inning last night, defeating the White Sox by a score of 11-4. They will host the Angels in Game 1 of a four game set at Target Field tonight, and after seeing almost 100 runs (97) cross the plate in the last six games at Target Field, another high scoring tilt wouldn't surprise anyone.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Twins will send Kyle Gibson to the hill, and he's really struggled at home lately. Gibson (11-10, 4.23 ERA) was torched for 10 runs on 16 hits over 10 innings in losses to Detroit and Cleveland in his last two home starts. He has only pitched two innings versus the Angels this year, but that was a complete disaster, allowing seven runs before getting the hook. The Halos counter with Hector Santiago, who has struggled on the road this year.
2. Kennys Vargas - The 24 year old has impressed since joining the Twins, hitting .319 with six home runs and 31 RBIs in just 32 games. He's hit home runs in each of his last two games at Target Field.
3. X-Factor - These teams have trended toward high scoring games, with the total going over at a rate of 31-15-5 over the last 51 head to head meetings.
Selection: This is a play on the Angels@Twins to go OVER the Total (Free)
Jesse Schule
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Bonus Play Over
The Cardinals bats have come alive during a five game winning streak, and they will look to continue surging as they face the Brewers in Milwaukee tonight. The Brew Crew have lost eight in a row, and now sit three games back of the Cardinals in the NL Central.
Wily Peralta will toe the rubber for the Brewers, and he's been just hammered lately. Peralta (15-9, 3.82 ERA) has surrendered 14 runs on 16 hits over eight innings in his last two starts. He's had troubles with several of the Cardinals hitters in the past, including Matt Carpenter who's 6-for-15 with a home run and two RBIs lifetime, and Matt Holliday who is hitting .375 with a pair of home runs and five RBIs lifetime versus Peralta.
The Cardinals hand the ball to 23 year old Michael Wacha, who makes his first start since June. The right-hander has missed the last two months with a sore shoulder, and he's only pitched two innings in his rehab stint at Double-A Springfield. Wacha lost his only previous meeting with Milwaukee this year, giving up three runs on eight hits over 6 1/3 innings. He was also 0-5 with a 3.40 ERA in seven starts on the road prior to landing on the DL.
These teams have pushed the total over in 11 of the last 14 meetings in Milwaukee. Take OVER.
GL, Jesse Schule
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Bonus Play Over
The Cardinals bats have come alive during a five game winning streak, and they will look to continue surging as they face the Brewers in Milwaukee tonight. The Brew Crew have lost eight in a row, and now sit three games back of the Cardinals in the NL Central.
Wily Peralta will toe the rubber for the Brewers, and he's been just hammered lately. Peralta (15-9, 3.82 ERA) has surrendered 14 runs on 16 hits over eight innings in his last two starts. He's had troubles with several of the Cardinals hitters in the past, including Matt Carpenter who's 6-for-15 with a home run and two RBIs lifetime, and Matt Holliday who is hitting .375 with a pair of home runs and five RBIs lifetime versus Peralta.
The Cardinals hand the ball to 23 year old Michael Wacha, who makes his first start since June. The right-hander has missed the last two months with a sore shoulder, and he's only pitched two innings in his rehab stint at Double-A Springfield. Wacha lost his only previous meeting with Milwaukee this year, giving up three runs on eight hits over 6 1/3 innings. He was also 0-5 with a 3.40 ERA in seven starts on the road prior to landing on the DL.
These teams have pushed the total over in 11 of the last 14 meetings in Milwaukee. Take OVER.
GL, Jesse Schule
Scott Spreitzer
Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins 8:10PM
Bonus Play Los Angeles Angels
Reason: I'm backing the Angels to bounce back after a pair of defeats at the hands of the Houston Astros. Hector Santiago has pitched well for the Angels, allowing just 3 earned runs and 24 base runners in his last four starts, spanning 22 2/3 IP. Besides his stingy results of late, I expect the Angels to get back on track at the plate, where they're 22-11 in road night games against right-handers, averaging over 5 rpg. Kyle Gibson goes for the Twins and he's allowed 5 earned runs in three of his last five starts. The righty has a 5.19 ERA in his last six starts, overall, and was pounded for 7 earned runs and 6 base runners in just 2 innings in his lone outing against the Halos this season. The Angels are 36-16 off a loss, while the Twins are 3-11 in their last 14 as an underdog. I'm backing the Angels on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins 8:10PM
Bonus Play Los Angeles Angels
Reason: I'm backing the Angels to bounce back after a pair of defeats at the hands of the Houston Astros. Hector Santiago has pitched well for the Angels, allowing just 3 earned runs and 24 base runners in his last four starts, spanning 22 2/3 IP. Besides his stingy results of late, I expect the Angels to get back on track at the plate, where they're 22-11 in road night games against right-handers, averaging over 5 rpg. Kyle Gibson goes for the Twins and he's allowed 5 earned runs in three of his last five starts. The righty has a 5.19 ERA in his last six starts, overall, and was pounded for 7 earned runs and 6 base runners in just 2 innings in his lone outing against the Halos this season. The Angels are 36-16 off a loss, while the Twins are 3-11 in their last 14 as an underdog. I'm backing the Angels on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
Marc Lawrence
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks 8:30PM
Under
Edges - Seahawks: 0-5-1 UNDER last six non-Sunday games, and 0-4-1 UNDER home openers, including 0-3-1 w/Carroll. Packers: 2-5 UNDER last seven non-Sundays. With the Packers defense vastly improved over last season?s unit and the Seahawks owning the top defense in the league last year, we recommend a 1-unit play niche UNDER in this game. Thank you and good luck as always.
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks 8:30PM
Under
Edges - Seahawks: 0-5-1 UNDER last six non-Sunday games, and 0-4-1 UNDER home openers, including 0-3-1 w/Carroll. Packers: 2-5 UNDER last seven non-Sundays. With the Packers defense vastly improved over last season?s unit and the Seahawks owning the top defense in the league last year, we recommend a 1-unit play niche UNDER in this game. Thank you and good luck as always.
Hollywood Sports
Arizona Wildcats at Tex San Antonio 8:00PM
Bonus Play Tex San Antonio
Reason: Take the UTSA Road Runners plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats. Arizona (1-0) was dominant in their 58-13 win over UNLV last Friday where they outgained the Rebels by more than 400 yards of offense -- but the Wildcats have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory by at least 20 points. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 5 games played in the month of September, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these contests. UTSA (1-0) comes off a 27-7 upset victory at Houston last week. Head coach Larry Coker has the benefit of the most experienced team in the FBS that returns twenty starters from last year's 7-5 team.
The Road Runners have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against non-conference opponents. Take the points with UTSA at home. Best of luck -- Frank.
Arizona Wildcats at Tex San Antonio 8:00PM
Bonus Play Tex San Antonio
Reason: Take the UTSA Road Runners plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats. Arizona (1-0) was dominant in their 58-13 win over UNLV last Friday where they outgained the Rebels by more than 400 yards of offense -- but the Wildcats have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory by at least 20 points. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 5 games played in the month of September, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these contests. UTSA (1-0) comes off a 27-7 upset victory at Houston last week. Head coach Larry Coker has the benefit of the most experienced team in the FBS that returns twenty starters from last year's 7-5 team.
The Road Runners have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against non-conference opponents. Take the points with UTSA at home. Best of luck -- Frank.
NEWSLETTER NFL Football Prediction From Strike Point Sports
Take #461 Green Bay (+6) over Seattle (8:30 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 4)
I really hope you didn’t miss out on last week’s perfect 3-0, +$1,500 domination in college football. Now it is time for some NFL winners, including this Opening Night Play and my 7-Unit NFL Play on Sunday. I know, I know, Seattle is dominant at home. I also know that they are coming off a Super Bowl win, and that doesn’t bode well. Super Bowl champs have a ton of pressure on their shoulders as they try and repeat the success they had the previous season. Green Bay’s offense is strong enough to keep pace with that vaunted Seattle defense as Rodgers can control the air and Lacy can control the ground. I am not saying that Green Bay will win this game, but it will be closer than people think. Green Bay has won six of their last eight games versus Seattle, including five in Seattle. Take the road dog in this one as Green Bay will cover this line in an entertaining fashion.
Take #461 Green Bay (+6) over Seattle (8:30 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 4)
I really hope you didn’t miss out on last week’s perfect 3-0, +$1,500 domination in college football. Now it is time for some NFL winners, including this Opening Night Play and my 7-Unit NFL Play on Sunday. I know, I know, Seattle is dominant at home. I also know that they are coming off a Super Bowl win, and that doesn’t bode well. Super Bowl champs have a ton of pressure on their shoulders as they try and repeat the success they had the previous season. Green Bay’s offense is strong enough to keep pace with that vaunted Seattle defense as Rodgers can control the air and Lacy can control the ground. I am not saying that Green Bay will win this game, but it will be closer than people think. Green Bay has won six of their last eight games versus Seattle, including five in Seattle. Take the road dog in this one as Green Bay will cover this line in an entertaining fashion.
