Thursday 9/3/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Gulfstream - Race #9 - Post: 5:41pm - Maiden Claiming - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $34,000 Class Rating: 61

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 BEAUTIFUL SIN (ML=7/2)
#2 SASS MASTER (ML=12/1)
#4 RARA (ML=12/1)


BEAUTIFUL SIN - Taking a trip down the ladder based on class; has the form to make her presence felt. This thoroughbred collects a lot of money per race around the track. I believe she can increase the lifetime earnings right here. Going on Lasix for the first time. While a conventional handicapping angle, it's still quite useful for handicapping purposes. SASS MASTER - Yates drops her down to this level. You don't need too much more handicapping knowledge to believe this horse has a good chance at this level. The jock and handler combination have a favorable return on investment when they combine forces. RARA - I really like sprint horses that make a fast turnaround. It looks like Jaramillo had to learn all about this filly on August 23rd when riding her for the initial time. Back aloft again today. Was in a Maiden Special race at Gulfstream last out. That race had a class rating of 72 and she is moving down today. A certain solid contender.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 HIRAM'S MISTRESS (ML=3/1), #7 SWEET SUMMER STAR (ML=6/1),

HIRAM'S MISTRESS - Don't think that this filly has value at 3/1 this time out. SWEET SUMMER STAR - A bit of a lackluster try when this filly finished sixth. Pedestrian speed fig in the last race at Gulfstream at 5 furlongs. Don't believe this entrant will improve too much today.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - RARA - My take on the data says it usually takes a campaigner a few races after a layoff to get back into shape. That's just what we have here, so I have lofty expectations for this horse.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #5 BEAUTIFUL SIN to win if you can get odds of 2/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
5 with [2,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,5] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[2,4,5] with [2,4,5] with [2,3,4,5,7] with [2,3,4,5,7] Total Cost: $36

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Del Mar - Race #8 - Post: 5:40pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 92

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 ATTACK (ML=6/1)
#13 THREE RED SEVENS (ML=5/1)


ATTACK - Faced tougher last race out at Del Mar. Based on Equibase class ratings, this is a weaker group, so I will put this horse on my list of top contenders. Horse will add blinkers to the equipment package today. That often leads to an improved performance. THREE RED SEVENS - When a horse finishes in-the-money as often as this gelding does, you will usually want to use him in your exotic wagers. Just see his most recent speed fig, 81. That one fits in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 ALLTHELEAVESRBROWN (ML=7/2), #11 LADIES MAN (ML=4/1), #7 PYROTECHNICS (ML=9/2),

ALLTHELEAVESRBROWN - This steed didn't go to the lead and didn't close down the lane last time he ran. Difficult to put your money on this early speedster. Too much zip in the clash. Finished eighth in his most recent race with a most unsatisfactory speed rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this group. LADIES MAN - Speed kills. Plenty of zip in this event compromises this equine's hopes. This gelding earned a speed figure in his last contest which likely isn't good enough in today's event. PYROTECHNICS - Hard to put your dough on the win end of any thoroughbred that finishes second and third as frequently as this participant does. Could be tough for this thoroughbred to beat this field off of that last fig. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class rating, so put him on the likely underpriced equines list.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #6 ATTACK to win if we can get at least 8/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [6,13]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
6 with 13 with [2,5,7] Total Cost: $3

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
6 with 13 with [2,5,7,8,11] with [2,5,7,8,11] Total Cost: $20

SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:
[6,13] with [6,13] with [2,5,7,11] with [2,5,7,11] with [2,5,7,11] Total Cost: $48

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Saratoga

RACE #4 - SARATOGA RACE COURSE - 2:36 PM EASTERN POST


The P.G. Johnson Stakes

8½ FURLONGS TURF TWO YEAR OLD FILLIES STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE

#4 THRILLED
#3 SEASIDE SCHILLER
#1 HARMONIZE
#5 AVA'S KITTEN

This turf race for juvenile fillies was first run in 2005 and was named after Hall of Fame trainer Philip George Johnson, who died the previous year. Johnson, a native of Chicago, bought his first horse in 1942 for $75 and won his first race with him two years later, the first victory in a career than spanned six decades. He was the leading trainer at Saratoga in 1983 and according to the National Museum of Racing, won at least one race each year at the Spa from 1962 to 2003. His biggest career victory came in 2002 with a horse he co-owned named Volponi, who pulled off a 43-1 upset of the Breeders' Cup Classic. The P.G. Johnson Stakes was not run in 2007 or 2008. Here in the 11th renewal of "The Johnson," #4 THRILLED is the pace profile leader in this juvenile field, and comes off a "POWER RUN WIN" to break her maiden in her "first asking," 24 days ago here at "The Spa." Jockey John Velazquez was in her irons for that win, which produced a +300% return on investment in the process, and is back today for his 2nd ride, gunning for back-to-back "Circle Trips." #3 SEASIDE SCHILLER, a 4-1 shot, also comes off a maiden breaking, "POWER RUN WIN" in her respective "first asking."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Thursday 9/3 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY PICK 4:

1,2,3,4,6,7/9/2,6/2,6,8 = $36


LATE PICK 4: 3,5,7/4/2,3,8/4,9,10 = $27

MEET STATS: 273 - 892 / $1534.90 BEST BETS: 37 - 80 / $121.10

SPOT PLAYS: 10 - 77 / $79.60

Best Bet: ALDEBARAN EAGLE (9th)

Spot Play: SILKY FLASHY NFAST (8th)


Race 1

(5) LOVE HUNTER got hung out for a long trip last time vs. Grassroots foes now gets a positive driver change and a better post; top call. (1) MY MY HEY HEY broke at the start last time, recovered, then went first up and destroyed the field. He's requalified well and is hard to see getting beat if he stays flat - but that's never a safe bet with him. (3) ONLY MY WAY closed quickly late last time and can share here.

Race 2

(5) DR J HANOVER wasn't pushed early in his debut but did show good late pace and can build on that initial effort here; top call. (4) REJUVENATE dropped back into maiden company, left hard from the outside and set all the pace only to be picked off very late. He's the one to beat here. (2) SHOREVIEW raced evenly on cover in his debut for a trainer not known for winning right off the hop. This colt could show sharp improvement here.

Race 3

(4) SILVIA goes for Burke/Gingras here and will likely get a good trip near the pace from which to launch a late assault on pacesetter (3) COULD IT BE MAGIC, who has been almost unbeatable locally. Top call to the former, but only slightly. (6) SILENT BLESSINGS has faced the best in her division and should be heard from here.

Race 4

(6) MATCHPLAY HANOVER gets a slight nod in a very competitive NW2L dash. He should get a good stalking trip here but there are several win possibilities here. (7) ARSENIC rebounded with a solid win last time and McNair will look to control this mile. (4) HEAVYMETAL HANOVER hasn't missed the board yet and should be a threat here from close range.

Race 5

(9) EMOTICON HANOVER as expected rebounded with a win last week after blowing up on the final turn at Georgian two back. We likely haven't seen this filly's best yet; breakout performance predicted. (4) EVERYTHING N MORE was a solid 2nd in a stake at Tioga last time and is getting closer to breaking her maiden. (6) DEWDLE ALL DAY wasn't far behind the choice last time and her consistency should be respected.

Race 6

(2) SHOW SOME LEG drops back to face maidens here and has as good a shot as any in a win-shy group. This filly should be a square price; call to upset. (6) MISS PRINCESS LEAH is 2 for 3 out of town and faces a group that is 3 for 107 collectively. She obviously has a shot here. (4) SO RAVEN always looks great on paper and always finds a way to get beat; your call.

Race 7

(6) SHOW BIZ HALL was trying to close into a :28 flat final 1/4 last time which was hopeless. Expect him to be kept closer to the front early here which would give him a big shot to convert with a win. (8) BOLI has some wins earlier this year vs. decent fields. Don't sell this one short here. (2) TORTOLA SUNRISE has done well for Moreau and can't be discounted here.

Race 8

(3) SILKY FLASHY NFAST went a big trip two back at Georgian then went a long trip last time from the 10-hole and finished a good 4th considering. She is improving quickly as many Kadabras do and could spring a huge upset here. (7) CAPRICE HILL broke at the start last time then was babied around the final turn and managed to drive away for the win. She is obviously talented but risky and will be a very low price on the board here. (5) TWICE IS RIGHT has two easy wins and two breaks in stride in her past four starts. She is another that could take down the big chalk if she behaves.

Race 9

(4) ALDERBARAN EAGLE has faced the best sophomore trotters on the continent and held his own. It's hard to imagine him getting beat here. (8) GRANA PADANNO displayed big speed winning easily last week and is the most likely upsetter should the choice falter. (2) MYSTERY BET seems to have cured his gait issues and will be closing late for a piece as is his custom when he behaves.

Race 10

(2) WEATHERLY raced evenly last time after missing some time but he did show sharp late speed. He should be a top contender vs. this group. (8) CAJON LIGHTNING got an aggressive steer to break his maiden in good time and should be a threat here. (3) JAKE LOEWEN wasn't that far behind the choice last time and is another to consider in a wide-open dash.

Race 11

(9) SOAKING UP THE SUN was claimed out of a good effort by Puddy and faces a fairly weak group here; top call. (10) SPORTS VISION was a big go last week and set all the pace only to be nailed on the wire by a class-dropping favorite. He is dangerous here, even from out there.(4) TICKET TO ROLL dropped into conditioned claimers and improved. He can be a threat here. (1) VEGILANTE HANOVER is only a one-time winner but often follows along for shares. He should get a piece of this. (6) LCM NUKULAR STRIKE is a good one for the bottom of exotic wagers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Thursday 9/3 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 164 - 783 / $1,155.90 BEST BETS: 17 - 66 / $85.50

Best Bet: MY IDEAL HANOVER (1st)

Spot Play: PERFECT PITCH (9th)


Race 1

(1) MY IDEAL HANOVER is on a roll scoring her second straight victory; the hat trick is not out of the question. (2) NUTMEGS DESIRE is knocking at the door based on his last two tries; contender. (5) CASE SOLVED has good early zip to make some serious noise; watch out.

Race 2

(5) NAUTICA HANOVER has put in some nice efforts and should be ready to put her best foot forward. (4) PATS PARADISE makes her return to Yonkers where she was a solid third on July 20th; threat. (1) ROLL WITH JOSIE should do much better from the fence; maybe.

Race 3

(7) LEGAL LITIGATOR did not fire his best at Saratoga last out; he's back at Yonkers and could get the job done with a favorable trip. (2) COOL LIKE FIRE needs a better trip to contend in here; worth a play. (1) OUTA MY HEAD gets post relief and that could help his cause.

Race 4

(5) COSMICPEDIA Very sharp 7-year-old is seeking his 9th victory of the year; should keep on his winning ways down the road. (2) LONG FIGHT HANOVER has put in two good tries that puts him right in the hunt. (3) BLUE STRIKE put in a mild bid to grab the show spot last time out; contender.

Race 5

(2) NO CLOUDS BLUECHIP Pacing miss is back at the Hilltop where she got the job done on July 20; all systems go for her fourth score of the year. (1A & 1) ENCORE DEO & DIME A DANCE Burke trained entry will try to knock off the choice; possible.

Race 6

(2) FREEZE OUT could take this with a complete meltdown of the early leaders. (5) VINO AND FORMAGGIO was sent down the road last out at Vernon to grab the victory; big threat again. (6) TIME ON MY HANDS has good speed; not out of this.

Race 7

(3) SOFT IDEA has been on the board in all of her starts; ready to boss this group. (4) LYRA has pulled off four straight victories and will be the main danger. (1) ROLLING GOING GONE will be closing in the final strides.

Race 8

(4) DEREK DELIGHT Pacing mare was sharp last out; figures to take this group to task for all the cash. (1) ALITTLEEASTERMAGIC gets class & post relief; threat. (3) LOVINEVERYMINUTE Plainridge invader could have a say in the outcome.

Race 9

(1) PERFECT PITCH Pocono shipper has won her last two in a row; moves to Yonkers and Sears gets the call; the pick. (3) BAHAMA BLUE faced open foes in her latest; could make some noise against these. (2) GRACE SEELSTER did not fire at odds-on last out but is capable of bouncing back; maybe.

Race 10

(2) DUKES UP moves to the two slot and that might be what he needs to return to the winner's circle. (6) MEETYOUATMIDNIGHT can be quite dangerous if he returns to his August 10th trip. (4) FITZS Z TAM raced evenly in his latest; could be a factor in here.

Race 11

(6) ONTHECLOCK HANOVER Gelding could mow these down if he goes back to his August 20 start; worth a shot. (4) IM BLUE TOO was nailed for win honors last out; has speed and is a big threat. (3) URBANA BAYAMA moves down in class and the 3-hole can put him right in the mix.

Race 12

(5) LITTLE MISS HENRY This might be a good spot for this mare to make her return to the winner's circle; threat at her best. (3) I DO IT MYSELF gets class relief and that could make this gal a big player in here. (4) ABS TO ENVY Qualifier at Freehold was good enough for her return to the races; beware.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Thursday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Canterbury Park (5th) Prince Demidoff, 6-1
(7th) Sammy's Mineshaft, 7-2

Charles Town (3rd) Danielle Deer, 9-2
(7th) Morning Muse, 3-1

Del Mar (2nd) Fantastic Mizz, 7-2
(5th) Moonlight Meeting, 7-2


Golden Gate Fields (2nd) Spectacular Cat, 4-1
(4th) Houdini's Magic, 8-1


Gulfstream Park (6th) Joyous Affair, 3-1
(9th) Beautiful Sin, 7-2


Louisiana Downs (1st) Blue Choice, 6-1
(5th) Fleeting Image, 7-2


Penn National (6th) Buffalo, 7-2
(7th) Cat Nip Ally, 4-1


Presque Isle Downs (1st) Bold Senator, 3-1
(7th) Cayo Hueso, 4-1


Remington Park (1st) Gins and Giggles, 3-1
(7th) Sassy Songbird, 6-1


Saratoga (2nd) Do a Legger, 6-1
(8th) John's Island, 8-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's Tip Sheet
By Joe Nelson

College football is back and gone are the days of just one marquee game on opening night. This season’s Thursday night card features 10 contests, including several major conference teams in action in important games. Here is a look at three of the biggest games that will open up the 2015 college football season Thursday night.

Match-up: South Carolina Gamecocks vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Venue: Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina (Neutral Site)
Time/TV: Thursday, Sep. 3, 6:00 PM ET – ESPN
Line: South Carolina -2.5, Over/Under 64.5
Last Meeting: 2013, South Carolina (-12) 27-10 at home

South Carolina has been accustomed to playing on opening night and it usually has been a successful outing, including beating the Tar Heels to open the 2013 season the last time these programs met. Last season, a South Carolina squad that opened the season in the top 10 of the national rankings was blown out at home against Texas A&M. The Gamecocks lost 52-28 as a 10-point favorite and the final score was closer than the game ever felt as the Aggies made a big opening statement and wiped away the lofty season goals for the Gamecocks immediately.

This season, the expectations are far more grounded for Steve Spurrier’s squad entering his 11th season with the program. Sophomore Connor Mitch won a multi-player battle at the quarterback position and the Gamecocks will have new personnel throughout the offense with very few starters from 2014 returning. One of those returnees is wide receiver Pharoh Cooper, who had the second most yardage in the SEC last season and figures to rate as a 2016 NFL draft prospect as a receiver and a kick returner despite lacking great height.

South Carolina has been a sound defensive team for most of Spurrier’s tenure, but that changed in 2015 with over 30 points per game allowed and over 430 yards per game allowed. The Gamecocks allowed 34 or more points in six of the eight SEC games. The defense has most of last season’s key players back, but this will be a difficult opening matchup going up against a potentially explosive North Carolina offense. The Tar Heels fell short of expectations last season as has been the norm on the football field in the last decade in Chapel Hill. North Carolina returns junior quarterback Marquise Williams, who was the team’s top rusher as well as passer last season and most of his teammates from starting roles last season on the offense are also back.

Larry Fedora has seen the Tar Heels decline in wins each of the last two seasons after going 8-4 in 2012 and last season the Tar Heels allowed 39 points per game and 498 yards per game, featuring the worst defense in the ACC. This is a program known for producing NFL talent on defense but the front seven has lacked that type of talent the last two years and the defense is not likely to make a huge leap forward in 2015 as more high scoring showdowns could be possible. The total on this game is set rather high and it seems likely that South Carolina might have a more conservative approach early with a young quarterback while hoping to keep the Tar Heels off the field. Despite looking like a great offensive team on paper, it is worth noting that the Tar Heels posted just 28 points combined in the final two games last season with ugly losses to average NC State and Rutgers teams.

Historical Trends: South Carolina is just 3-6 ATS in neutral site games going back to New Year’s Day 2009, but the Gamecocks are on an 11-3-1 ATS run since 2000 when favored by 3 or fewer points. South Carolina is 7-10 ATS in season openers going back to 1998 though 5-5 ATS under Spurrier with the defeat last season as the first S/U loss. Under Fedora, North Carolina is just 5-8 ATS as an underdog with only three S/U upset wins, all of which came as an underdog of fewer than seven points. The Tar Heels are 2-6 S/U in neutral site games going back to 2004, but they did win the Belk Bowl against Cincinnati in this stadium after the 2013 season. North Carolina has just one S/U win in six meetings between these teams since 1988.

Match-up: Michigan Wolverines at Utah Utes
Venue: Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City, Utah
Time/TV: Thursday, Sep. 3, 8:30 PM ET – FOX Sports 1
Line: Utah -5.5 Over/Under 46.5
Last Meeting: 2014, Utah (+3.5) 26-10 at Michigan

Even in a down cycle, Michigan remains one of the most prominent college football programs in the nation and the hiring of Jim Harbaugh back to Ann Arbor puts the Wolverines back in the national spotlight. Harbaugh inherits a veteran roster and his reputation for quick success in his previous stops has many feeling very optimistic about Michigan’s chances to seriously compete right away in the Big Ten. Harbaugh has not officially announced a starting quarterback with Iowa transfer Jake Rudock and junior Shane Morris both in the mix. While it was a very disappointing 5-7 season for Michigan in 2014 under Brady Hoke, a -16 turnover margin and a handful of close losses are things that could turn around this season to produce better results with a similar roster.

Michigan actually had very respectable defensive numbers last season allowing just 22 points per game and 311 yards per game with particular success against the run, allowing just 3.2 yards per rush. The Wolverines also allowed only one 300 yard passing game all season. Seven starters are back on the defense and there is little reason to expect much of a drop off with the secondary for Michigan looking especially strong. In last season’s home meeting with Utah, Michigan lost 26-10 at home, but the Wolverines had more yards only to be burned by four turnovers and a punt return touchdown as Utah did not look like a vastly superior team.

The Utes wound up 9-4 last season for the most successful season for the program since moving to the Pac-12. Utah was in the Pac-12 South race for much of the season, but while it could be argued that Michigan underachieved last season, the Utes certainly overachieved with all five Pac-12 wins coming by six or fewer points and some great fortune with two double-overtime wins. Travis Wilson returns at quarterback after posting efficient numbers last season, but the Utes are a bit depleted at the receiver position with only one last season’s top four receivers back. Devontae Booker will carry a heavy load for the offense after rushing for over 1,500 yards last season, but Michigan will not be an easy team to rush against and Booker had just 34 yards in the matchup last season.

Utah will be a productive defensive team with the potential to force turnovers again as the front seven looks very promising even with the departure of Nate Orchard who had 18.5 sacks and was a second round pick in the NFL draft. The secondary remains the question mark for the Utah defense with injuries taking a toll on the defensive backs last season and limited experience for this season’s group. This is a huge home date for Utah with a truly marquee matchup for a home opener, something that has not occurred since at least 2010 when Utah beat a ranked Pittsburgh team to start the season. This will be a key game in determining the trajectory of the season for two programs looking to take the next step.

Historical Trends: Michigan last opened the season with a true road game in 1998 though the Wolverines did lose to Alabama to open the 2012 season in Arlington. Michigan is 5-1 ATS in season openers since 2009 with the loss to the Tide as the lone miss, but they were a heavy home favorite in most of those games. Michigan is on a 6-10 ATS run as a road underdog since 2009 and since 2007, Michigan is just 12-24-1 ATS in all road games. Utah is just 11-21 ATS as a home favorite of fewer than 10 points since 2000 while going just 3-7 ATS in season openers under Kyle Whittingham, though with just two S/U losses.

Match-up: TCU Horned Frogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers
Venue: TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota
Time/TV: Thursday, Sep. 3, 9:000 PM ET – ESPN
Line: TCU -14.5, Over/Under 57.5
Last Meeting: 2014, TCU (-16.5) 30-7 at home

Coming off a 4-8 season in 2013, TCU was certainly pegged as a team likely to improve in 2014 and when the Frogs dominated Minnesota in week 2 of the season, TCU started to get some attention. That game was in Fort Worth and while the Frogs had a big early lead, they were aided greatly by turnovers to pull away and were held well below their eventual season production average in the 30-7 win. Trevone Boykin was mostly unknown nationally at the start of last season and he did not have a great game vs. the Gophers, but by the end of last season, he was one of the most productive quarterbacks in the nation. He will enter the 2015 season in the spotlight as one of the Heisman favorites on a national title contender.

TCU has almost everyone back on offense and it was a team that scored over 46 points per game with over 530 yards per game. Top returning wide receiver Josh Doctson is recovering from a broken hand but he is expected to play and Boykin and senior running back Aaron Green will provide great threats on the ground. The questions for TCU are with an inexperienced defense that lost six of the top seven tacklers from last season on a defense that allowed a lot more yardage than the 19 points per game average against suggests. Five times TCU allowed 27 or more points and the statistics were padded a bit facing two lightweight foes in non-conference play.

The Big Ten West looks a bit wide open this season with three teams making coaching changes and if not for a more difficult schedule than its peers, Minnesota might be tabbed to take the title. The Gophers draw both Michigan and Ohio State from the East for a big disadvantage in the division race, but it has been a steady climb forward in four years for the program under Jerry Kill. With back-to-back 8-5 seasons, this is now a respectable program and the Gophers have started to win some big games, winning at Michigan and at Nebraska last season while also blowing out rival Iowa at home. This is a great opportunity for the program with a chance to make a huge national splash to start the season in one of the biggest home dates in many years.

Minnesota lacks flash on offense and with few returning receivers and the loss of 1,600 yard rusher David Cobb as the offense will lean heavily on imposing junior quarterback Mitch Leidner’s legs and a conservative offensive approach. The offensive line will be a strong point and against a formidable offense expect Minnesota to aim to move the chains and limit the possessions in the game. Minnesota does have some promise on defense with a quality linebacker corps and great depth up front as they should be a fairly difficult team to run against despite some inconsistency last season. It is a tough task for the Gophers in the opening week, but also a great opportunity while being a statement chance for TCU to pick up a quality road win and earn a spot on top of the national playoff conversation after being left out last season.

Historical Trends: TCU is just 4-8 ATS as a road favorite going back to 2011, going 1-4 ATS when laying 10 or more points in that span. In any venue, TCU is on a 31-18 ATS run when favored by at least 14 points, including a 49-0 S/U record as the last outright loss for the Frogs under Gary Patterson as this big of favorite came at SMU early in the 2005 season. Minnesota is 9-5 ATS as a home underdog since 2011 under Kill with the Gophers 6-1 ATS as a double-digit home underdog under Kill, including six straight ATS wins with three outright upset wins.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: Michigan at Utah

Michigan Wolverines at Utah Utes (-4.5, 46.5)

Expectations are modest in head coach Jim Harbaugh’s first season, but Michigan expects a gradual return to greatness with the mercurial former quarterback at the helm. Harbaugh will get his first chance to lead his alma mater when the Wolverines visit Utah to open the 2015 campaign on Thursday.

Harbaugh was lured back from the NFL after leading the San Francisco 49ers to three NFC Championship games and is expected to do for Michigan what he did for Stanford – mold the team into a consistent Rose Bowl contender. Harbaugh has yet to officially announce his starting quarterback, though transfer Jake Rudock is the presumed favorite to win the job. Utah went into Michigan and put a 26-10 beating on the Wolverines last season and will be motivated to do the same after the noted football gurus at Popular Mechanics magazine caused a mini controversy by referring to the opener as a “cupcake game” for Michigan. The Utes begin the campaign outside the top-25 and are predicted to finish fifth in the Pac-12 South after losing some talent to the NFL, most notably linebacker Nate Orchard.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1. LINE: Utah -5.5

LINE HISTORY: The Utes opened as 5.5-point home favorites, but that is now -4.5. The total opened at 46.5.

INJURY REPORT: Michigan - WR Amara Darboh (Probable, finger), RB Drake Johnson (Questionable, knee).

WEATHER: Temperatures in the high-70s with wind blowing toward the north end zone at around 18 mph.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "For the spread we are fairly split with the public bettors mostly backing Michigan and the sharper ones on Utah. The sharps liked Utah weeks ago but now we're seeing the mainstream guys come in and they're loving Harbaugh. More than two-thirds of our moneyline wagers are on the Wolverines. I think the smart play is the under and so do many of our professional clients." Odds consultant.

ABOUT MICHIGAN (2014: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS, 5-7 O/U): Rudock or anyone else stepping under center for the Wolverines will need some help from the running attack in the opener, and the team is still waiting to see if Drake Johnson is ready to go after suffering a torn ACL against Ohio State last fall. "Drake is cleared, practicing and haven't decided whether he's going to play in this ballgame yet or not,” Harbaugh told reporters. “He's doing a fantastic job. He's in practice and an explosive football player.” Johnson did not get a carry against Utah last season but came alive down the stretch and ended up averaging six yards per carry.

ABOUT UTAH (2014: 9-4 SU, 9-4 ATS, 4-8-1 O/U): The Utes are going with senior Travis Wilson, who is beginning his fourth season as the starting quarterback in coach Kyle Whittingham’s high-scoring attack. Wilson threw for 18 touchdowns and ran for five more in 2014 and will again lean hard on running back Devontae Booker, who is coming off a 1,512-yard, 10-TD campaign. “Devontae Booker will carry the ball as many times as it takes to get a win,” Whittingham told reporters.

TRENDS:

* Wolverines are 0-8 ATS in their last eight vs. Pac-12.
* Utes are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. Big Ten.
* Under is 7-3 in Utes last 10 home games.
* Utes are 37-17-2 ATS in their last 56 non-conference games.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-three percent are backing the Wolverines.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Two TCU defensive players to sit out opener
The Sports Xchange

TCU will be missing two defensive players when it travels to Minnesota for its season opener on Thursday night.

Horned Frogs coach Gary Patterson did not release the names of the two players, but defensive end James McFarland and cornerback DeShawn Raymond were not included on the depth chart this week.

Patterson did not indicate the reason for the two players sitting out the opener.

Asked about when the identities of the absent players will be released, Patterson said, "You'll find out when we get to game time."

McFarland led TCU in sacks last year with seven and was the defensive MVP in the Peach Bowl victory over Ole Miss. He missed practice time during the spring because of a foot injury.

Other TCU defensive players nursing injuries going into the opener are cornerback Torrance Mosley, defensive tackle Davion Pierson, defensive end Mike Tuaua and and linebacker Montrel Wilson.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

TCU was perfect versus non-conference foes in 2014
Andrew Avery

The Texas Christian Horned Frogs were one of the best bets in the college game last season, posting a record of 11-2 against the spread on the season a went unbeaten (4-0 ATS) in four games against non-conference opponents.

TCU backers will look for that hot betting trend to continue at the Minnesota Gophers Thursday evening.

At the time of writing, the Frogs were tabbed as 17-point road favorites.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Conditions could be windy as Utes host Wolverines
Andrew Avery

According to weather forecasts, wind is expected to blow toward the north end zone at Rice-Eccles Stadium at around 16 miles per hour when the Utah Utes host the Michigan Wolverines Thursday evening.

Temperatures will be in the high-70s under partly cloudy skies with a small 8-14 percent chance of rain.

The Utes opened as 5.5-point home favorites in their season opener, but that has been adjusted to -4.5. The total is presently 46.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Toledo is a popular play on Thursday's board
Andrew Avery

According to Consensus, the Toledo Rockets are the most supported team on Thursday's NCAAF board, seeing just under 74 percent of the support as of Wednesday evening.

The Rockets are presently 26.5-point home favorites (5Dimes) with Stony Brook in town.

Toledo was 5-7-1 against the spread last season, opening the 2014 campaign with a 54-20 win over New Hampshire as 11-point home faves in Week 1.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Thursday's games

South Carolina (-13) beat UNC 27-10 two years ago, running ball for 228 yards; Gamecocks lost 7 starters on offense, have new QB, were 1-7 vs spread when favored LY, are 9-5-1 in non-SEC games since 2012. Tar Heels are 4-8 in last 12 games as an underdog, 4-6 in last ten non-ACC games; they've got 105 starts back on OL and a senior QB. UNC has 17 starters back, ten on offense.

Harbaugh makes Michigan debut with new QB but four starters back on OL: Wolverines are 7-14 as road underdog since 2008, 4-9-1 in non-league games since '12- they were -16 in tunovers LY, when Utah (+3) won 26-10 in Ann Arbor. Utes had a +3 turnover ratio but were outgained 308-286. Utah covered five non-league games in row; since '10, they're 12-10-1 as a home favorite.

TCU has to have chip on shoulder after being shunned for shot at 4-team playoff LY. Horned Frogs have 10 starters back on offense and a senior QB; they're just 3-8 as road favorite since 2011, but waxed Minnesota 30-7 (-16) LY, outgaining Gophers 427-268- it was Minnesota's only loss LY by more than 10 points. Minnesota is 7-6 as a home underdog under coach Kill; they have a QB wth 16 career starts and an experienced (88 starts) OL.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL: Lions struggling ATS on the road this year
Andrew Avery

The BC Lions head into the Week 11 schedule with a 1-3 record against the spread in their four road games this season and have gone just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven road games dating back to last season.

The Lions will visit the Montreal Alouettes Thursday evening and are currently tabbed as 5-point road underdogs for the meeting.

BC is coming off a bye week but lost to the Als in Week 9 by a score of 23-13 and closed as 3-point faves.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 11 CFL games

British Columbia (3-5) @ Montreal (4-5)-- Alouettes (+3) upset Lions 23-13 out west two weeks ago, their first win in last five visits to Vancouver; Als had 411-249 edge in yardage. Lions had last week off after their fourth loss in last five games, while Montreal (+10) upset TigerCats in Hamilton last week. Montreal won three of last four series games, winning the last five played here, last two by 24-9/50-17 scores. BC is 1-3 on road, losing by 11-10-30, with only win at winless Saskatchewan. Montreal is 2-2 at home, 1-1 as a home favorite; eight of their nine games stayed under total.


British Columbia Lions
Montreal Alouettes 5.5, 47


Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Saskatchewan Roughriders 3.5, 52

Toronto Argonauts
Hamilton TigerCats 7, 54.5

Edmonton Eskimos
Calgary Stampeders 5.5, 49.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WNBA Preview: Sky (18-12) at Liberty (21-8)

Date: September 03, 2015 7:00 PM EDT

With the New York Liberty boasting the WNBA's best defense and the Chicago Sky touting its highest-scoring offense, Thursday night's matchup figures to be a tightly contested matchup.

It may not live up to that billing if the Sky are still without their top two scorers, however.

The Liberty (21-8) limit opponents to 70.2 points per game, and have won nine of 11. Tuesday's 80-75 overtime victory against Atlanta brought them within two wins of clinching the top spot in the Eastern Conference and one shy of matching the single-season franchise record from 2010.

"It's definitely in our minds that we want to get the No. 1 seed," said Tina Charles, who is averaging a team-high 17.8 points.

Chicago is averaging 82.5 points, but the club was kept in check in an 84-63 loss at New York on Aug. 11, putting the Liberty in position to sweep the four-game season series. Elena Delle Donne, whose 23.9 points per game lead the league, did not play due to a sprained ankle.

Delle Donne returned for the next four games but has missed the last two with a foot injury and her status is uncertain.

Cappie Pondexter is Chicago's second-leading scorer with 15.0 points per game and scored a team-high 23 in that loss at Madison Square Garden, but she sat out Sunday's 72-68 loss to Connecticut after suffering a concussion in a 98-96 win at Atlanta on Saturday. She's being evaluated based on the league's concussion protocol.

The Sky (18-12) are tied with Indiana for second in the East but hold the tiebreaker after sweeping the season series 4-0 with three victories coming by 23-plus points. Catching New York for first place is far-fetched, though, as they must win out while the Liberty would have to lose their remaining games.

Chicago blew a nine-point lead in the fourth quarter of Sunday's loss, which snapped a three-game winning streak. Courtney Vandersloot led the team with 18 points without Delle Donne and Pondexter.

While the Sky's offense could be limited, Sugar Rodgers may have broken out of her slump for the Liberty. She matched a career high with 23 points against the Dream - two fewer than she had totaled over her previous six contests. Rodgers, who was 5 of 12 from 3-point range, hadn't scored in double figures since a 10-point performance at Phoenix on July 18.

"I knew something was coming, I just had to be patient," she said.

Epiphanny Prince could also be in for a big night considering she had a season-high 30 points on 11-of-14 shooting in a 77-63 win at Chicago on Aug. 7.

The Liberty, who had dropped six straight home meetings prior to last month's victory, have won eight of their last nine at Madison Square Garden.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Shock (15-14) at Storm (9-20)

Date: September 03, 2015 10:00 PM EDT

A long homestand has helped keep the Seattle Storm in the Western Conference playoff race.

The Storm look to cap the six-game KeyArena stretch with a season-high third straight win Thursday night against the surging Tulsa Shock.

Seattle (9-20) is 3-2 on the homestand and coming off Sunday's confidence-building 69-59 victory over East contender Washington. The Storm trailed by 10 midway through the third quarter before holding the Mystics scoreless for more than nine minutes during a 19-0 run.

"We got more aggressive," guard Jewell Loyd told the Storm's official website. "We made plays for each other and our defense was on point. We knew we had to step it up a notch, get in a good rhythm, defensive rhythm and that's what we did."

Loyd scored 18 points and set a club record by going 14 of 14 from the foul line.

The Storm trail Los Angeles by 2 1/2 games for the West's final postseason spot with five remaining and face a difficult stretch. After Thursday's visit from the playoff-bound Shock, Seattle travels to Chicago before a home-and-home series with West-leading Minnesota.

Seattle does have recent history on its side Thursday, as the home team has won the series' last eight meetings and the Shock are 2-10 at KeyArena since moving to Tulsa in 2010. The Storm avenged two previous losses to the Shock with a 74-69 home victory June 30, when Tulsa lost star guard Skylar Diggins to a season-ending ACL tear.

Diggins' injury triggered a 2-13 stretch that included a 10-game losing streak July 15-Aug. 4. The Shock (15-14) have since bounced back to win five straight and secured their first playoff berth since 2009 with Sunday's 76-70 victory over Indiana.

"It means a lot," coach Fred Williams said. "For the city of Tulsa, I told them we were going to do big things here and I thought this was one of the biggest days for our franchise and our organization here and for our fans. They deserve this."

Odyssey Sims scored a season-high 30 points and Karima Christmas added 18 to help Tulsa overcome a shin injury to Riquna Williams in the second quarter. Williams, who had 23 points June 30 and is averaging 15.6 this season, is uncertain for Thursday.

The Storm will play for a third straight game without center Ramu Tokashiki, currently competing for Japan in the FIBA Asia Championship. The rookie totaled 33 points on 16-of-25 shooting in the last two matchups with Tulsa.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Mystics (16-13) at Sparks (12-18)

Date: September 03, 2015 10:30 PM EDT

Though both the Washington Mystics and Los Angeles Sparks are closing in on postseason berths, only one's playing like a playoff-caliber team.

The slumping Mystics continue what's been a difficult trip on Thursday night against a Sparks team rejuvenated by Candice Parker's return.

These teams have veered off in opposite directions over the past two weeks, with the Sparks winning four of five and the Mystics losing four of five. Despite those struggles, Washington (16-13) needs to win only one of its remaining five games to secure a playoff spot.

Poor shooting has plagued the Mystics, especially on this trip. After being held scoreless for over nine minutes in the second half of Sunday's 69-59 loss at Seattle, Washington shot 31.1 percent and managed seven points in the third quarter in Wednesday's 73-53 defeat to Phoenix.

Top scorers Ivory Latta and Stefanie Dolson have both been off during the trek. Latta is 7 of 21 since netting a season high-tying 24 points in Friday's home win over the Mercury, while Dolson has just nine points on 4 of 15 shooting in the two losses.

A back injury that will sideline point guard Kara Lawson for a fourth straight game also has compounded matters.

The Mystics had been 8-1 against the Western Conference prior to the recent losses. They had little trouble generating offense in an 84-80 win over Los Angeles on June 23, receiving 20 points each from Emma Meesseman and Tierra Ruffin-Pratt.

That loss was part of a 3-13 start that placed the Sparks (12-18) at the bottom of the Western Conference. They've gone 9-5 since Parker returned in late July to vault into fourth place, 2 1/2 games ahead of Seattle.

Parker is averaging 17.9 points and 10.1 rebounds and Jantel Lavender is averaging 17.2 during the 4-1 stretch, highlighted by a season-high 24 in Sunday's 60-52 win over San Antonio.

The Sparks are just 3-7 against the East and have lost three straight to Washington, which swept last year's series by following a triple-overtime win with a 79-75 decision at the Staples Center in July.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB Preview: White Sox (61-70) at Twins (69-63)

Game: 3
Venue: Target Field
Date: September 03, 2015 1:10 PM EDT

Before the Minnesota Twins shift their attention to a challenging trip that begins with consecutive series against AL division leaders, they have one more opportunity to continue their home dominance of the Chicago White Sox.

Trying to extend Jeff Samardzija's recent misery, the Twins look to complete a three-game sweep of the White Sox on Thursday.

A winner in 10 of the last 12, Minnesota (69-63) continues to make a serious push for its first postseason appearance since 2010. The Twins would get an even better feel for how far they've come by finding success on a nine-game trek that opens Friday at Houston then moves to Kansas City before finishing with the White Sox (61-70).

'It's fun to pitch in meaningful games in September,' Tommy Milone said after tossing seven innings in Wednesday's 3-0 victory. 'We're going through that right now ... and continue to build off of it.'

First, Minnesota tries for a fourth consecutive win overall and against Chicago, which has been outscored 63-23 while going 1-8 at Target Field this season.

That lone triumph at Minnesota came June 23 when Samardzija (8-11, 4.85 ERA) allowed two runs and struck out seven in seven innings of a 6-2 win. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 3.27 ERA in three starts against the Twins in 2015, but had an 8.82 ERA while losing all six starts in August.

"It's not an easy game,' said Samardzija, who had not dropped more than four straight starts prior to this slide. 'You learn a lot about yourself during stretches like this.'

Samardzija has yielded a major league-high 98 earned runs. His 25 runs allowed in the first inning also are the most in baseball.

He'll try to avoid becoming the first White Sox pitcher to lose seven consecutive starts since Jose Contreras in 2007.

'As far as being prepared, competitiveness, all that stuff, it is as good as it's going to get,' White Sox manager Robin Ventura said of Samardzija. 'He's probably scratching his head as to of how it's ended up like this.'

Kyle Gibson (9-9, 3.82), meanwhile, has allowed only a solo homer to Jose Abreu in 16 innings while going 2-0 against the White Sox this year.

Though he walked three and needed 111 pitches to get through 5 2-3 innings Friday, the right-hander improved to 6-4 and lowered his ERA to 2.92 in 14 home starts with a 3-0 victory over Houston.

"I probably should've gone seven or eight (Friday), so that's the only frustrating part about it," Gibson, who went 0-3 with a 7.22 ERA in his previous seven starts, told MLB's official website.

"But any time you can leave an outing healthy without giving up any runs is a good thing."

Milone surrendered Chicago's only three hits Wednesday. Miguel Sano homered for a third straight game and Trevor Plouffe added a two-run double as the Twins improved to 11-4 against the White Sox in 2015

Sano can become the first Minnesota rookie to homer in four consecutive contests since Marty Cordova in 1995, but it's uncertain how much an ailing hamstring will limit his effort.

"It hasn't bothered him to swing, so he's a tough guy to take out of there," manager Paul Molitor said of Sano, who has 15 homers and 42 RBIs in 51 games since debuting July 2.

Abreu's homer is his only hit in nine at-bats against Gibson.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Braves (54-79) at Nationals (67-65)

Game: 1
Venue: Nationals Park
Date: September 03, 2015 7:05 PM EDT

In dire need of momentum to become a factor in the NL East, the Washington Nationals' remaining schedule presents that opportunity.

Losing Bryce Harper, however, would make that very difficult.

After avoiding being swept by the best team in baseball, the Nationals may be without their best hitter as they try to capitalize on a four-game series with the spiraling Atlanta Braves on Thursday night.

Washington (67-65) got two homers and three RBIs from Ryan Zimmerman in a 4-3 victory over St. Louis on Wednesday but remained 6 1/2 games behind the first-place New York Mets in the division.

If the Nationals are going to eventually catch the Mets, they'll need to take advantage of a favorable schedule. Of their remaining 30 games, 24 are against five teams out of postseason contention while the other six are against New York - including a crucial three-game home set that starts Monday.

Before that, Washington will play the first of seven remaining games with the Braves (54-79), who have lost 19 of their last 22 games and nine straight on the road for their longest such slide since dropping 10 in a row in 1996.

The Nationals may be without Harper after he was removed in the fourth inning Wednesday with tightness in his left glute. The right fielder is having a career year, batting a league-leading .331 with 31 homers and 78 RBIs.

He's hitting .372 with three homers and 10 RBIs in his last 11 games against Atlanta.

Zimmerman appears very capable of picking up the slack. He's batting .359 with seven homers and 19 RBIs in the last 10 games and has gone deep four times while going 7 for 14 with eight RBIs in his past three.

Jordan Zimmermann (11-8, 3.45 ERA) takes the ball in search of a fourth straight winning start for the first time since last September. The right-hander's current streak has been aided by 21 runs of support while he's compiled a 4.34 ERA.

He turned in his best performance of that stretch Saturday, yielding one run in seven innings of a 5-1 win over Miami.

"Fastball was a lot better and slider was pretty good," Zimmermann said. "Still not where I want it, but better than the last start."

Zimmermann is 4-1 with a 1.99 ERA in his last nine starts against the Braves, tossing 18 2-3 scoreless innings over the past three. He shut out Atlanta for 7 2-3 in a 6-1 victory June 30.

The Braves are 25 games under .500 for the first time since finishing 65-97 in 1990. They've also been outscored 67-19 during an eight-game slide after losing 7-3 to Miami on Wednesday.

"We're in some kind of a perfect storm right now not scoring very many runs and allowing the other team to score a lot," manager Fredi Gonzalez said. "It's a tough combination."

Matt Wisler (5-5, 5.22) seeks his first win since July 26 after going 0-4 with a 7.85 ERA in his last six starts. The rookie right-hander was 4-0 with a 3.30 ERA in his previous five outings.

He's 0-3 with a 9.35 ERA in his last four road starts but was effective at Turner Field in his most recent outing Saturday, limiting the New York Yankees to two runs over six-plus innings of a 3-1 loss.

Wisler has split two starts against Washington, giving up six runs over four innings in a 7-0 loss in the nation's capital on June 25 before tossing 5 1-3 scoreless in a 4-1 home victory seven days later.