Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Thursday
The Wednesday Bonus Play was on a weekend NFLx game, so obviously there’s no result to report yet as far as that goes. Here’s another F5 play I like on today’s baseball card.
ROYALS (Volquez) at MARLINS (Koehler) 7:10 PM
Take: MARLINS F5 (likely in the -110 neighborhood)
Here’s a game where there’s a huge conflict between historical data and current form. I tend to stress the present numbers far more than deep past performance. That being the case, I’ll get this out of the way right off the top. Edinson Volquez has owned the Marlins. He’s 6-0 lifetime against Miami, with a superb 1.64 ERA. So Volquez might be in a good mental place approaching this game. That’s the one thing he has in his favor.
The Royals also have some stellar team current form in the mix, as they’d been on a huge tear before running into Jose Fernandez on Wednesday night. Much of that streak has been a direct result of what has been a phenomenal stretch by the KC bullpen. Royals relievers have now gone 34.2 consecutive innings without surrendering even a single run. And that fact immediately rules out any possibility of my making a full game wager against them.
But I’m not averse to going with the Marlins to win the first half of this one. Tom Koehler has never been anything more than a back end of the rotation starting pitcher. I won’t say that’s about to change as far as the long term is concerned, but right at the present time, Koehler is in what I’d call well above average form. I like the game score grading formula, and Koehler has some very attractive numbers over his last six starts. His most recent was about average, so it’s possible he could be beginning a regression to his norm. But he hasn’t had a clunker since mid-July, and Koehler actually owns some pretty decent home metrics for the season to date.
Volquez is in the midst of a really bad run. He’s had five straight starts that have ranged from average to awful. I can attribute some of this to lousy BABIP luck, as those numbers have been a little nuts in four of the five outings. But it also has to be noted that when Volquez has made a mistake lately, the baseball has ended up traveling rather long distances.
I decided to go ahead and buck the history angle here and back the pitcher in clearly better current form. That’s Koehler, so my play is on the Marlins. But bear in mind this is strictly a F5 play as I have zero desire to try and battle that Kansas City bullpen.
Bonus Play Thursday
The Wednesday Bonus Play was on a weekend NFLx game, so obviously there’s no result to report yet as far as that goes. Here’s another F5 play I like on today’s baseball card.
ROYALS (Volquez) at MARLINS (Koehler) 7:10 PM
Take: MARLINS F5 (likely in the -110 neighborhood)
Here’s a game where there’s a huge conflict between historical data and current form. I tend to stress the present numbers far more than deep past performance. That being the case, I’ll get this out of the way right off the top. Edinson Volquez has owned the Marlins. He’s 6-0 lifetime against Miami, with a superb 1.64 ERA. So Volquez might be in a good mental place approaching this game. That’s the one thing he has in his favor.
The Royals also have some stellar team current form in the mix, as they’d been on a huge tear before running into Jose Fernandez on Wednesday night. Much of that streak has been a direct result of what has been a phenomenal stretch by the KC bullpen. Royals relievers have now gone 34.2 consecutive innings without surrendering even a single run. And that fact immediately rules out any possibility of my making a full game wager against them.
But I’m not averse to going with the Marlins to win the first half of this one. Tom Koehler has never been anything more than a back end of the rotation starting pitcher. I won’t say that’s about to change as far as the long term is concerned, but right at the present time, Koehler is in what I’d call well above average form. I like the game score grading formula, and Koehler has some very attractive numbers over his last six starts. His most recent was about average, so it’s possible he could be beginning a regression to his norm. But he hasn’t had a clunker since mid-July, and Koehler actually owns some pretty decent home metrics for the season to date.
Volquez is in the midst of a really bad run. He’s had five straight starts that have ranged from average to awful. I can attribute some of this to lousy BABIP luck, as those numbers have been a little nuts in four of the five outings. But it also has to be noted that when Volquez has made a mistake lately, the baseball has ended up traveling rather long distances.
I decided to go ahead and buck the history angle here and back the pitcher in clearly better current form. That’s Koehler, so my play is on the Marlins. But bear in mind this is strictly a F5 play as I have zero desire to try and battle that Kansas City bullpen.
Jim Feist
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Thursday, August 25, 2016
Your Bonus Play for Thursday, August 25, 2016 is in the baseball contest between the San Francisco Giants and the Dodgers from Los Angeles. This is a big park, great for pitchers, and a pair of strong pitching staffs square off. San Francisco is on a 5-2-1 run under the total on the road, plus 9-4-1 under away against a righty starter. Matt Moore is on the mound, a great strikeout pitcher. Ross Stripling goes here for the home team and the Under is 5-1 in Stripling's last six home starts. LA is 11-3 under the total at home against a left-handed starter and this shapes up as a defensive duel between two rivals in a pennant race.
Play San Francisco/LA Dodgers Under the total.
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Thursday, August 25, 2016
Your Bonus Play for Thursday, August 25, 2016 is in the baseball contest between the San Francisco Giants and the Dodgers from Los Angeles. This is a big park, great for pitchers, and a pair of strong pitching staffs square off. San Francisco is on a 5-2-1 run under the total on the road, plus 9-4-1 under away against a righty starter. Matt Moore is on the mound, a great strikeout pitcher. Ross Stripling goes here for the home team and the Under is 5-1 in Stripling's last six home starts. LA is 11-3 under the total at home against a left-handed starter and this shapes up as a defensive duel between two rivals in a pennant race.
Play San Francisco/LA Dodgers Under the total.
Heath Mac
Falcons vs Dolphins
Bonus Play Atlanta Falcons
We like the way the Falcons have been playing this preseason and they look like they have solid depth at QB with Schaub and Simms both looking good, though we'll reserve full judgement until the real stuff begins. the Dolphins were awful last week (though they did help us land our 4* play of the week on the Cowboys). Atlanta's secondary has been pretty good and we're not sure the Dolphins are going to do any better than they did last week. They'll need to if they are going to be competitive though - the Dolphin's secondary put up 0 sacks, 0 interceptions, 0 forced fumbles last week....
Miami is 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games at home. Atlanta is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Not sure why we are getting the points here, but a good rule to follow in preseason football betting is to take the better team when they are getting points and that is exactly what is happening here.
For our free pick, take the Falcons +2 points.
Falcons vs Dolphins
Bonus Play Atlanta Falcons
We like the way the Falcons have been playing this preseason and they look like they have solid depth at QB with Schaub and Simms both looking good, though we'll reserve full judgement until the real stuff begins. the Dolphins were awful last week (though they did help us land our 4* play of the week on the Cowboys). Atlanta's secondary has been pretty good and we're not sure the Dolphins are going to do any better than they did last week. They'll need to if they are going to be competitive though - the Dolphin's secondary put up 0 sacks, 0 interceptions, 0 forced fumbles last week....
Miami is 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games at home. Atlanta is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Not sure why we are getting the points here, but a good rule to follow in preseason football betting is to take the better team when they are getting points and that is exactly what is happening here.
For our free pick, take the Falcons +2 points.
