Thursday 5/14/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 250y on the Dirt. Purse: $12300 Class Rating: 65

QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR MAIDEN, TWO YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 6 HI LONESOM CHIC 5/1


# 5 GO AND BE GOOD 10/1


# 4 ITS BOUT TIME 4/1


HI LONESOM CHIC looks formidable to best this field. Exhibits the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 64 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the best in this group. Will make a strong performance versus this bunch. Has performed strongly lately in short races, posting a nifty 64 avg speed rating. GO AND BE GOOD - Make a note that this entrant runs with second time Lasix today. Shows signs of the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 61 speed rating which is one of the strongest in this group of horses in this race. ITS BOUT TIME - Players should probably note that this pony runs with second time Lasix today.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Santa Anita - Race #7 - Post: 4:14pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 82

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 BLUE BLIZZARD (ML=3/1)
#3 QUEEN OF THE HILL (ML=2/1)
#8 NORASTONE (ML=5/2)


BLUE BLIZZARD - This mare is in nice condition, having run a good race on Apr 19th, finishing second. Great chance for this racer. Strong late speed and should have good position. I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run her best in the 3rd or 4th start back. QUEEN OF THE HILL - I like to invest in this angle, a racer coming back off a nice contest within the last month. NORASTONE - This speed freak is shortening up today. Should increase her winning probability. This filly is in good physical condition, having run a nice race on May 3rd, finishing second. This horse wins a lot of dough per start. I believe she can increase that total right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 CHAMPION RISK (ML=6/1), #6 RICH IN TRADITION (ML=8/1), #1 JETBIRD (ML=8/1),

CHAMPION RISK - Bandages were added last time out. Doesn't bode well for today's race. RICH IN TRADITION - I can't play this habitual non-winner. Gets the task fulfilled infrequently. When looking at today's class figure, she will have to register a better speed figure than last out to compete in this dirt sprint. JETBIRD - This mare hasn't had any positive results in short distance races in the last two months.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - NORASTONE - After a freshening, has had a few races and today she enters a sprint race. Should be back in form, so I expect this one to perform well in this field.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #4 BLUE BLIZZARD to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [3,4,8] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[3,4,8] with [3,4,8] with [1,3,4,7,8] with [1,3,4,7,8] Total Cost: $36

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Charles Town - Race #2 - Post: 7:31pm - Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,500 Class Rating: 93

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 HEBERT HALL (ML=9/2)
#2 MARYLOVESTETON (ML=2/1)


HEBERT HALL - Montano is right back for another affair today after racing atop this animal for the first time on Jan 28th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. TrackMaster keeps good stats on this type of information. This gelding always seems to perform well after a layoff. On Jan 28th this gelding shipped in to take the top prize and looks good right back. Often a pony that runs well on the grass will adore a track with tight turns like Charles Town. MARYLOVESTETON - Fits well considering the fact that the last time he tried this distance he got a speed fig good enough to win today. This horse looks good today. Hasn't done much lately, but did win a $5,000 Claiming race on Nov 28th. You'll be making money right and left by turning your cash onto this rider/trainer combination. Based on this horse's recent efforts, he should benefit from this race's shorter distance. Have to believe this pace horse has a nice chance on this bullring of a track. A quick move out of the gate, and this one gets position. Lower weight assigned of -5. In my opinion, a movement of 5 is important, so this horse falls into this category.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1A DREAM OF SCIPIO (ML=9/5), #1 READY FOR DUTY (ML=9/5), #3 REGAL REVENGE (ML=8/1),

DREAM OF SCIPIO - Hasn't raced or had any morning drills since Apr 13th. Not much value on this morning-line choice. Will be hard for this horse to beat this field off of that last fig. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class rating, so put him on the possibly overvalued contestants list. READY FOR DUTY - Difficult to support any mount in a sprint affair if he hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last 60 days. The probable favorite is vulnerable here with the lack of morning drills. When examining today's class figure, he will have to earn a better speed rating than in the last race to compete in this dirt sprint. REGAL REVENGE - Recent deteriorating speed figs of 93/85/66 give an indication that this horse may be going off form. When checking today's class rating, he will have to record a better rating than last out to compete in this dirt sprint.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#6 HEBERT HALL to win at post-time odds of 9/5 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #6 - 3:55 PM

8.0 FURLONGS DIRT THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $40.000.00 CLAIMING $59,000.00 PURSE

#5 CRUSHING
#1 CONSPIRACY
#2 PRAETEREO
#3 MONEYINYOUR POCKET

#5 CRUSHING shares the speed honors in this claiming field racing at today's distance of a mile on the dirt with #2 PRAETEREO, and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of his last five outings, including a "POWER RUN WIN" facing slightly better company (+1) in his 5th race back. Jockey Javier Castellano and Trainer Chad Brown send him to the post ... they've hit the board with 62% of more than 175 entries saddled as a team to date. #1 CONSPIRACY, a 6-1 shot, qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," is the pace profile leader, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in three of his last four outings, including a "POWER RUN WIN" facing better company (+2) in his 2nd race back.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Thursday 5/14 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY $1 PICK 4 TICKET:

2,4,7/1,6,10/4/6,8,10 = $27


LATE $1 PICK 4 TICKET: 1,5,8/1,2,6/2,4,9/2,6 = $54

MEET STATS: 65 - 213 / $370.70 BEST BETS: 10 - 19 / $32.60

SPOT PLAYS: 3 - 17 / $36.00

Best Bet: PISCEAN (3rd)

Spot Play: UNABATING (8th)


Race 1

(5) SASSY DREAMER showed big improvement second time out and stands a good chance to control the pace here; top call in the opener.(2) LADY PING has the ultimate case of seconditis and may fill that spot again here. (6) SEE THE STARS is well-bred but will need more speed here if he is going to contend at first asking.

Race 2

(4) A LOT OF SENSE powered up late to win her last despite getting funky-gaited halfway down the lane. McNair should be able to keep her in striking range from the 4-hole; call to repeat. (6) THRILL CHASER drew off to a new lifetime best mark late and is the obvious one to chase down. (2) DELIRIUM set the pace and only tired late in a much improved performance; using.

Race 3

(1) PISCEAN, the night's Best Bet, had a horrible trip last out - first on excess bad cover then stopped cold when trying the inside in the lane when full of trot. Filion should roll this one much earlier here with that debut in the books. (9) LMC MARSHMELLOW showed some good late trot for the first time last week and could improve in a big way here. (10) WORLD CLASS IZZY is well-bred but may not be used aggressively from the 10-hole here in her debut.

Race 4

(7) MESMERIZE BLUE CHIP was a debut winner last year off a similar qualifier in which she showed good late speed. She looks ready to roll in her sophomore debut. (2) TAILWIND HANOVER failed as chalk last out when trying to rally into an accelerating pace. She should be tough here. (4) GET SOME SPARK debuts for McIntosh off a decent second qualifier and could make some noise right away.

Race 5

(1) HAVA KADABRA controlled things last week and was an easy winner. He projects to get a good trip on or near the pace throughout here. (10) BIG PACKAGE had no trouble with an outer post in his latest and should be tough again here. (6) ARCTIC TALE has seen better days but is capable of putting in a in a big one if he minds his manners.

Race 6

(4) CLICK BOOM drops to the bottom level here and likely gets back on track from on or near the pace. (1) GREYSTONE MOE raced much better last week and should be able to get a good trip leaving from the inside. (5) LOST IN PANSLATION hits the board every week and is always a threat from close range.

Race 7

(6) ABBIJADE HANOVER qualified well enough to suggest she will be a threat in this weak field in her 3YO debut. (10) BETTY AND THE JETS closed a big gap in her season's debut, but still remains winless and now draws the 10-hole; for a slice. (8) BLACK QUEEN hasn't missed the board in her career and now faces what looks like her weakest competition to date; using.

Race 8

(5) UNABATING makes his season's debut off a decent enough qualifier; priced to win for Puddy; top call. (8) TYMAL COLLOSSUS went a long trip last time and paid the price late. He races better when he can clear to the front at some point. (1) RIVAL SEELSTER comes in from London for Moreau after a narrow defeat in the Preferred there; he's dangerous.

Race 9

(1) TYMAL SIGNATURE has improved dramatically the past month and is a big threat here to notch her third lifetime win. (6) MASS RAIL closed a big gap in the second 1/2 to fall just short to the choice; threat. (2) TYMAL ILLBTHERE was a one-time winner last year, but also faced the best in her division and wasn't disgraced. She can take these if the intent is there.

Race 10

(4) SCARY HARRY showed wicked late speed in his second start over Balmoral and now moves into McIntosh's barn; top call. (9) DRAFT SEELSTER was only 6 lengths behind the best 3YO in Ontario in his qualifier and looks ready to make some noise in this season's debut. (2) TWIN B SPORTSMAN gets an inside post for the first time and could be a value play for late pick 4 tickets.

Race 11

(6) BUSINESS AS USUAL roared home in her latest qualifier signaling all systems go for her 3YO debut. (2) SOUTHWIND GINGER moved into Adams barn and was an easy winner first out; the main danger. (7) MO MOLLY BLUE CHIP raced well enough in her season's debut to contend here. (1) WAR FILLY had a brutal trip last time and paid the price. She can share from an inside post here. (4) JORDIES HOPE moves inside and could parlay a following trip into a share here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Thursday 5/14 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 68 - 391 / $485.20 BEST BETS: 5 - 34 / $26.60

Best Bet: SUMMER SNOW (4th)

Spot Play: REPORT FOR DUTY N (7th)


Race 1

(4) PASSION R VIRGINIE seems to be coming around. Could get it done with a golden trip. (1) PUTNAMS GLORY is clearly knocking at the door based on her last three trips to the post. (5) JUST SAYIN closed strongly for the show spot last out.

Race 2

(4) SHELIKESITHERWAY flashed good speed in her latest. Has every right to boss these down the road. (3) ALWAYS LOVE ME has put in three good efforts; threat. (2) BOOTS PLACE gets post relief; watch out.

Race 3

(2) COSMICPEDIA did not fire in his last try. Moves back inside where he got the job done two starts ago; capable. (1) GIACOMETTI should fare quite well from the fence. (5) AMASA AL is not out this based on his last two outings.

Race 4

(5) SUMMER SNOW was late on the scene to nail down the show spot in her most recent trip. At her best, she might take this. (4) SPRINGHOUSE STAR showed good speed before tiring in the stretch drive last out; main danger. (1) CAM FUNNY was second best in her previous try; watch out from the rail.

Race 5

This might be a better spot for (3) BIG BAD BOSSMAN to bring home all the bacon; pounce and score. (2) JC KINGDOM & (1) EXPENSIVE TWO get serious post relief and merit strong consideration.

Race 6

(4) KNOW IT ALL's last start should be an indication she is ready to put her best foot forward. (7) DENYITTOTHEEND is a fast pacer who will take them as far as she goes. (5) CAMERON LUCKY showed a good late kick in her initial trip here; can't be counted out of this.

Race 7

(2) REPORT FOR DUTY N has tactical speed and retains the 2-hole. If he gets the right trip, at his best this pacer can top these. (4) IM THE REAL MAJOR leaves the seven slot and Brennan stays on board; dangerous. (1) BAZILLION was an easy winner against lesser company; beware again.

Race 8

(5) GROUNDED was nailed for win honors last out. Her form is quite sharp and she has every right to atone from her latest. (3) NEFERTITI BLUE CHIP moves down in class and that might help her cause. (1) MACHO CHICK should get involved from the 1-hole.

Race 9

(5) HARE CRAFT did not race badly from the eight slot last out. Pacer has the right stuff to get back to his winning ways. (2) THUNDER NOISE beat lesser company in his latest; contender. (4) IM BLUE TOO was sent down the road last out for all the glory; threat again.

Race 10

(3) ADDWATER put in three good starts and this gelding is very capable of getting the job done against this group. (1) R GAUWITZ HANOVER has wheeled off three straight victories and should be the one to deny. (5) AUTOMATIC SLIMS should be right square in the mix.

Race 11

(2) TREVORS BEBE gets a cozy post to work with. Could rate or be on the engine; ready for action. (8) HOOSIER CHATTER just missed the victory in her latest. Threat desipte the move to the 8-hole. (5) LITTLE MISS HENRY fits with these and should be right in the thick of things.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Thursday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Belmont Park (3rd) Dorset Damsel, 8-1
(7th) Mischieviously, 10-1


Belterra Park (3rd) Dixie Council, 8-1
(7th) Owensville, 9-2


Charles Town (2nd) Hebert Hall, 9-2
(8th) French Magician, 5-1


Churchill Downs (5th) Arctic Slope, 8-1
(6th) Pinking of You, 10-1


Evangeline Downs (4th) C U Tiger, 8-1
(9th) Stinnett's Love, 4-1


Golden Gate Fields (4th) High Test, 7-2
(7th) Hollywood Fredie, 7-2


Gulfstream Park (6th) Concert, 3-1
(8th) Ansiedad, 3-1


Louisiana Downs (5th) Awesome Madam, 3-1
(7th) Storm Cap, 3-1


Penn National (4th) Edge City, 3-1
(6th) Selma Gayle, 7-2


Pimlico (4th) Pluracity, 6-1
(6th) Well Played, 7-2


Prairie Meadows (3rd) Santa Fe Sue, 8-1
(8th) Ghost City King, 5-1


Santa Anita (4th) Mistaken Identity, 8-1
(6th) Cautious Giant, 5-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB Preview: Nationals (19-16) at Padres (18-17)

Game: 1
Venue: PETCO Park
Date: May 14, 2015 10:10 PM EDT

No matter how the Washington Nationals are getting it done, they continue to surge.

Following a comeback victory to take their fifth straight series, the Nationals open a four-game road set with the San Diego Padres on Thursday night.

Replacing Bryce Harper following the star's ejection, reserve outfielder Michael Taylor hit his first grand slam in the top of the ninth inning to give Washington (19-16) a 9-6 victory at Arizona on Wednesday.

'I always like our chances,' outfielder Jayson Werth said. 'I don't feel like we're ever out of it.'

The win was the 12th in the last 15 games for the Nationals, who have averaged 6.5 runs during a stretch that began by overcoming an early 9-1 deficit at Atlanta on April 28 and included back-to-back 1-0 victories against the New York Mets.

Harper, 14 for 26 with seven homers, 11 runs and 16 RBIs in the last seven games, was tossed along with manager Matt Williams for arguing a checked-swing call in the seventh. Taylor, who was 2 for 11 in his previous seven games, came through to help Washington overcome deficits of 5-3 and 6-5.

'Let's give that team credit. They battled,' Arizona manager Chip Hale said of the Nationals. 'A guy off the bench comes up with a big home run. That's pretty impressive.'

Washington hopes Doug Fister (2-1, 2.87 ERA) can record another strong road outing Thursday. The right-hander has not allowed a run in two of his three road starts while going 1-1 with a 1.96 ERA.

His last outing came at home Saturday, when he gave up three runs in 6 2-3 innings while not factoring in the decision of an 8-6 victory over the Braves.

In his only appearance versus San Diego in 2011, Fister threw a six-hitter and struck out seven in a 1-0 defeat with Seattle.

After concluding a 4-5 trip with a 4-2 victory over the Mariners on Wednesday, the Padres (18-17) try for a fourth consecutive victory at Petco Park.

"Where we are now, one game over .500 and we haven't hit our stride, that's something we can look forward to," San Diego manager Bud Black said.

However, it's expected that center fielder Wil Myers won't be available after he missed both games at Seattle with a wrist injury. Myers is hitting .291 with five homers, 19 RBIs and leads the club with 39 hits and 28 runs.

"I'm hoping for only a few days," Black told MLB's official website. "I want to be encouraged, I really do."

Though San Diego's Tyson Ross (1-3, 3.98) is 0-3 in his last five starts, he has allowed two runs in each of the last two. He lasted six innings during a 6-4, 12-inning victory at Arizona on Saturday.

In his only start against the Nationals, Ross gave up six runs in 5 1-3 innings of a 6-0 home loss June 6.

Harper is 2 for 2 with a home run against the right-hander.

Teammate Denard Span went 6 for 12 at Arizona, and is 3 for 9 with a double versus Ross.

After going hitless in 20 at_bats over his previous 11 games, San Diego's Will Middlebrooks went 2 for 7 with a homer at Seattle. He's 2 for 5 during the regular season versus Fister.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Red Sox RHP Masterson likely headed to DL
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

OAKLAND, Calif. -- Boston Red Sox right-hander Justin Masterson, who had his second straight rough start Tuesday night against Oakland, will skip his next turn in the rotation and will likely be placed on the disabled list Thursday.

"We're moving toward a likely DL for him," Red Sox manager John Farrell said before a 2-0 victory Wednesday against Oakland. "After he went through a full exam and workup this morning with the medical staff, there's not one specific area to the arm or shoulder that is a cause or reason why we're seeing reduced velocity and reduced action. There's some fatigue that's involved. I think it's important that we allow this to calm down.

"We're going to need to test it at full speed at some point in the near future here, but Sunday is out as far as Masterson is concerned."

Farrell said that right-hander Steven Wright, a knuckleball specialist, is a "strong candidate" to replace Masterson in the rotation Sunday against Seattle. Wright pitched 5 2/3 innings of relief Tuesday in a 9-2 loss to Oakland, allowing three runs on six hits.

Masterson lasted a season-low 2 1/3 innings against the A's. He gave up six runs on six hits, walked one and struck out one. In his previous start he gave up four runs on seven hits over 4 1/3 innings in a 5-3 loss to Toronto. He went 2-0 over his first five starts, giving up three of fewer runs four times.

"I'm not real happy," Masterson said of his likely trip to the DL. "I'm mad. ... We're going to make the best of it. I have to do it. There's no way around it so I'm going to make the best of it. In the end it'll be extremely beneficial. That's what we do with the time that we're given."

Masterson said he can't pinpoint any major physical problem that's hurt him the past two starts.

"The last two starts I haven't really been behind the ball," he said. "You can see that in my lack of control. That's really what it's been. For me personally being able to feel it as seeing the cut on the fastballs and the slider just got not as tight, not as good as if it's coming out back here. Just nothing getting to the point where it's supposed to, out in front being able to just rip it however I want.

"Do I feel anything significant? No, not really. But is there something holding me back from that? I'd have to say yeah. I can't deny the fact that it's happened. If you make the adjustment going into my last start, well then it'd be like, 'OK.' The adjustment wasn't made."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Street closes two-year deal with Angels
The Sports Xchange

Closer Huston Street reached agreement Wednesday with the Los Angeles Angels on a new two-year, $18 million contract with a club option for 2018.

The deal includes a $4 million signing bonus and salaries of $6 million in 2016 and $7 million in 2017. There is also a $10 million option for 2018 with a $1 million buyout and a limited no-trade provision.

The 31-year-old Street came to the Angels last July in a trade with the San Diego Padres. He posted 17 saves last year after joining the Angels and has 11 saves this season with a 3.29 ERA. In 40 innings spanning both seasons, he has a 2.25 ERA for the Angels.

Street is near the end of a six-year, $43 million deal originally signed with the Colorado Rockies. He has 286 career saves and a 2.83 ERA in 605 innings since he entered the major leagues with the Oakland Athletics in 2005.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'On the Diamond'

Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants meet in the first of a four-game series at Great American Ball Park tonight. Righthander Johnny Cueto toes the rubber for Cincinnati, entering the game with a 3-3 record, 2.98 ERA. In his last outing, he allowed four runs in 8 1/3 innings picking up a 'W' at White Sox. During his last 26 starts at home for the Reds, Cueto has an impressive 19-7 team start record including a sharp 17-5 TSR when heading to the hill as chalk. The Giants counter with Tim Lincecum carrying a 3-2 record, 2.00 ERA. The righthander recapturing some of his glory days has won consecutive games tossing 14 innings of shutout ball. However, those were at AT&T Park and it's well documented Lincecum isn't a peg to hang your hat on when away from home field. In his last ten on the road he is 1-7 with Giants 1-9 over the span. Additionally, San Francisco has faltered when Lincecum tosses under the lights in an opposing park. Giants have been on the wrong end in 14 of his last 20 road games at night. One final nugget in the Reds favor is that the Giants are 1-5 in Lincecums last six vs Cinci.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Five To Follow MLB Betting: Thursday, May 14, 2015 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews

I now have a new favorite for the first manager to be fired: Colorado's Walt Weiss. The Rockies were competitive for a while but took a 10-game losing streak into Wednesday. The new Colorado GM felt compelled to say he likes the roster early this week and that the blame was on the players and not the coaches. That's usually a bad sign. Weiss might not make it through the weekend if the team breaks the franchise-record 13-game losing streak. Quite possible, if the Rockies lost Wednesday at the Angels, with four games at the Dodgers this weekend.

Rockies at Dodgers (TBA)

Another interesting facet of how things are unraveling in Denver: star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki reportedly will meet with his agent on Thursday to decide whether to demand a trade. I don't see why he wouldn't as this team isn't going to win while Tulo is still a good player. Let those Mets rumors begin because they aren't hitting at all and have the pitching to trade. Eddie Butler (2-3, 3.73) gets the call in the series opener for the Rockies. He has faced the Dodgers twice this season, allowing four runs and 11 hits over 10.1 innings. The Rockies would lose both. Justin Turner should get a start at third for L.A. as he's 6-for-9 with two doubles off Butler. Adrian Gonzalez is 3-for-10 with a double, homer and two RBIs. Lefty Brett Anderson (2-1, 3.52) hasn't allowed an earned run over 11 innings in his past two starts for the Dodgers. His last start was in Colorado, his team last season, where he went five innings. Justin Morneau is 4-for-14 with a homer off him.

Key trends: Colorado has lost five straight against lefties. The Dodgers are 5-1 in their past six series openers. The "over/under" has gone under in eight of Colorado's past nine road games against a lefty. The over is 6-1 in the past seven meetings in L.A.

Early lean: This is TBA because Butler hasn't officially been named yet as he took a line drive off his leg last time out, but the Denver Post is reporting he's fine to start. L.A. will be a sizable favorite, and I'd take the Dodgers on the runline.


Blue Jays at Astros (-102, 8.5)

Houston will have young outfielder George Springer back for this series opener and perhaps even on Wednesday night as he is being activated off the seven-day disabled list. Springer has four homers, 12 RBIs and a shocking 10 steals on the season. Drew Hutchison (3-0, 6.69) starts for the Jays, and as you can see he has gotten plenty of run support. He does come off his best outing of the season, allowing a run and striking out six over five innings against the Red Sox. That lowered his ERA from 7.47. Houston's Jason Castro is 1-for-2 with a double and RBI off him. Luis Valbuena 1-for-3 with a double. Houston's Roberto Hernandez (1-3, 3.86), on the other hand, isn't getting much run support. He held the Angels to two runs and six hits over 7.2 innings last time out but still lost. Jose Bautista is 6-for-15 with five extra-base hits, including a homer, and three RBIs off him.

Key trends: Toronto is 10-4 in Hutchison's past 14 series openers. The Astros are 5-2 in their past seven Game 1s. The over is 10-2 in Hutchison's past 12 road starts.

Early lean: Astros and over.


Royals at Rangers (+106, 9.5)

Texas is expecting to activate first baseman Mitch Moreland off the disabled list on Wednesday. Moreland has been sidelined since April 27 due to an elbow injury. He has hit .304 with a homer and nine RBIs in the majors this season. It's Jeremy Guthrie (2-2, 5.70) in this matinee start for the Royals. He had his best start of the year last time out, allowing two runs and eight hits over 7.1 innings in Detroit -- the same team that plastered him the start before. Guthrie is 5-4 with a 3.40 ERA in his career against Texas. Prince Fielder is a.478 hitter off him in 23 at-bats. Moreland is 2-for-12 with a double. Rangers lefty Ross Detwiler (0-4, 7.22) had his fourth start this season of allowing exactly five earned runs last time out, lasting only four innings at Tampa Bay. This will be his first career start vs. K.C.

Key trends: The Royals are 5-0 in Guthrie's past five on the road. Texas is 1-5 in Detwiler's past six starts. The under is 3-0-2 in Guthrie's past five vs. Texas.

Early lean: Royals and over.


Cardinals at Indians (+115, 7.5)

This is your earliest game on the schedule with a 12:10 p.m. start time, and thus I fully expect a regular or two on each side to get the day off in the series finale. Like Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina for one as he left Tuesday's game as it was with back tightness. Perhaps St. Louis could use him as the designated hitter assuming that back is fine. The Cards' Michael Wacha (5-0, 2.09) has been one of the NL's best pitchers thus far. He has allowed more than two earned runs just once all season. Wacha has never faced the Indians. Cleveland's Trevor Bauer (2-1, 4.19) got off to a really strong start this season but has tailed off of late with an ERA of 10.61 over his past two starts. He has never faced St. Louis.

Key trends: The Cards are 0-4 in Wacha's past four interleague starts. The Indians are 4-1 in Bauer's past five vs. the NL. The over is 5-0 in his past five against teams with a winning record.

Early lean: Cardinals and under.


Red Sox at Mariners (-132, 7.5)

Seattle had to put Roenis Elias into the rotation a couple of weeks ago because of an injury to Hisashi Iwakuma, and it appears Elias will have to stay there for the foreseeable future as Iwakuma has been shut down for the next 10-14 days because he still is having problems with a lat strain. Thus you may not see him until after the All-Star break. The lefty Elias (0-1, 3.86) gets the call against the Red Sox. He went a season-high seven innings last time out, allowing three runs in a no-decision at the Angels. No Red Sox have ever faced him. Joe Kelly (1-2, 6.35) is yet another Red Sox starter who is struggling. He was bombed for six runs in 5.2 innings last time out in Toronto, walking seven batters. That's four straight starts he has been shelled. Seattle's Nelson Cruz is 3-for-9 with two RBIs off him.

Key trends: Boston is 8-3 in its past 11 series openers. Seattle is 0-4 in Elias' past four at home. The over is 5-2 in Kelly's past seven overall. The over is 7-0 in the past seven meetings in Seattle.

Early lean: Mariners and over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | ST LOUIS at CLEVELAND
Play On - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ST LOUIS) good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game on the season against opponent starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing
122-78 over the last 5 seasons. ( 61.0% | 48.5 units )
5-3 this year. ( 62.5% | 2.3 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | NY METS at CHICAGO CUBS
NY METS are 22-10 (+16.0 Units) against the money line in Road games in day games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: NY METS (4.8) , OPPONENT (3.6)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's six-pack

-- Phillies 3, Pirates 2-- Jeff Francoeur threw tying run out at the plate to end game, the rare walk-off outfield assist.

-- Rangers 2, Caps 1 OT-- Rangers won last ten home games when they were faced with playoff elimination- they're 7-0 at home in Game 7's.

-- Giants' instant replay guru is former big league SS Shawon Dunston.

-- Turner Sports gave Charles Barkley a 10-year contract extension.

-- Deshaun Morman transfers from Cincinnati to Towson State, instance of a kid who made a lousy decision coming out of high school. He'll play at Towson.

-- Colorado State is using the $7M from ex-football coach Jim McElwain's buyout to fund cost-of-attendance scholarships; good move by them.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play THURS Clippers -8

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CAPPERS ACCESS

(NBA) Bulls-2
(NBA) Rockets+8
(MLB) Pirates-135

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Thursday

(913) ROYALS at (914) RANGERS 2:05 PM

Take: (913) ROYALS -119

If you’re looking for a good pitcher’s duel to follow on Thursday, this probably isn’t it. Jeremy Guthrie will take the mound for the Royals in a getaway day clash against the Rangers, while Ross Detwiler gets the call for Texas.

It’s been seriously rough sledding for both Guthrie and Detwiler thus far this season. There are basically no positive numbers to focus on with either pitcher. Guthrie is a pitch to contact guy to begin with, but he’s really not fooling anyone for the most part presently. Detwiler has been a disaster, with some ghastly stats and he’s making matters worse with a high BB rate.

The keys for me here are that Guthrie is probably the lesser of two evils as far as the starting pitching is concerned. Once the starters are done, Kansas City will have its usual bullpen edge, and that’s a pretty substantial and meaningful advantage in a game where the relievers for each team are likely to get plenty of work.

The Royals have enjoyed plenty of production when facing southpaws, so they ought to be primed to do damage against Detwiler. But the Rangers have had their troubles getting to righties, so I’ll at least give Guthrie a shot at getting in six innings of okay work here.

It’s an interesting line, as with the price being where it is, there’s not a shred of doubt here that the Royals will be a very popular choice with the masses. But I make this line more toward the -135 neighborhood. So square or not, I’ve got to tab the Royals as the side to consider here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JOE WIZ

Thursday... Over 6 runs Washington and San Diego

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BIG AL

Our complimentary selection for Thursday, May 14 is:

San Diego Padres (Ross) over Washington Nationals (Fister).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Thursday, May 14

Trend Report

12:10 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Cleveland's last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cleveland's last 8 games at home

1:05 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. PHILADELPHIA
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games

1:08 PM
MINNESOTA vs. DETROIT
Minnesota is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Detroit
Minnesota is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home

2:05 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. TEXAS
Kansas City is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Texas
Kansas City is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Texas
Texas is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Texas is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games

2:20 PM
NY METS vs. CHI CUBS
NY Mets are 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
NY Mets are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Mets
Chi Cubs are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games

7:10 PM
NY YANKEES vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
NY Yankees are 11-5 SU in their last 16 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing at home against NY Yankees

7:10 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. CINCINNATI
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
San Francisco is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games at home
Cincinnati is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

8:10 PM
TORONTO vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Houston's last 18 games at home

10:10 PM
WASHINGTON vs. SAN DIEGO
Washington is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games at home
San Diego is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Washington

10:10 PM
BOSTON vs. SEATTLE
Boston is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games when playing Seattle
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Boston
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

10:10 PM
COLORADO vs. LA DODGERS
Colorado is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
Colorado is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
LA Dodgers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games
LA Dodgers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Colorado