Thursday 4/30/09 service plays chatter /comps/ requests & gm strategy...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tom Stryker

ST. LOUIS with Boggs (-122) over Washington

The Cardinals have posted wins in five of their last six meetings against the Nationals and seven of their last eight against opponents from the National League East. Equally impressive, against sub .400 foes, the Redbirds have been a golden investment cashing 10 of their last 11 battles.

Washington right-hander Daniel Cabrera is finding the going pretty tough in the National League. After five years with the Baltimore Orioles, Cabrera has made four starts this season for Washington and been tagged for 16 runs and 22 hits in 18.1 innings of work. As an underdog, Daniel has dropped four straight.

In their last 77 as a pup, the Nationals are a miserable 23-54 SU and just 4-11 SU in their last 15 at home. The Cardinals are the better team with the better bats and they'll cruise to victory here. Take St. Louis with listed pitcher Boggs.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Angels/Yankees OVER 10 Runs

I expect to see a lot of runs go up on the board tonight with two struggling pitchers on the hill and with the way the ball has been carrying in Yankee Stadium. 12 of 19 games in this series have gone over the last 3 seasons and neither team's bullpen is in as good a shape as it has been the last few years. The Over is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings and 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in New York. The Over is 17-8-1 in Yankees last 26 home games vs. a right-handed starter, 4-0 in Angels last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, 4-0-1 in Angels last 5 games as an underdog of +151 to +200, and 21-10-1 in Angels last 32 during game 1 of a series. Lastly, the Yanks are 24-11 Over vs. a terrible bullpen whose ERA is 5.50 or worse over the last 3 seasons with the average score totaling 12.9 runs in these games. Bet the Over!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vernon Croy

Florida Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Florida Marlins

The Cubs have been very inconsistent so far this season and the Marlins have the superior pitcher on the mound tonight with Chris Volstad who has an ERA of just 3.00 in 2 career starts against the Cubs. The Marlins are 8-2 in their last 10 games as a dog and they are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a road dog. The Marlins are 20-6 in their last 26 games after a win and they are 6-1 in Volstad's last 7 starts as a road dog. The Cubs are 0-6 in Marshall's last 6 home starts against a team with a winning record and they are just 1-11 in Marshall's last 12 starts as a favorite. We are getting solid value with the Marlins tonight on the road so take them as your Free MLB Play for Thursday night.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dwayne Bryant

BOS (-113) vs TAM

Have to back the hot team over the struggling one. Boston has reeled off 12 wins in 13 games, including 11 straight wins as a favorite. Tampa has lost four of five and coming home doesn't figure to help, as the Rays are just 2-5 at "The Trop."

Josh Beckett got ripped for 8 runs in 5 innings against the Yankees in his last start, so I expect a very focused and effective outing from him tonight. The Red Sox bullpen has also been very solid, sporting a 2.19 ERA on the season.

Matt Garza has pitched well against Boston, but he's coming off back-to-back poor outings and he seems to be a bit off his game right now.

I'll take red-hot Boston with Beckett over struggling Tampa Bay and Garza for a half-unit.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

BOS (-110) vs TAM

The last time the Boston Red Sox visited Tropicana Field, Matt Garza helped the Tampa Bay Rays end their season. The teams are going in opposite directions now as the surging Red Sox meet Garza and the struggling Rays on Thursday night to open a four-game series; look for BOSTON to improve to 9-2 (+6.1 units) against division opponents!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ron Raymond

VAN (-150) vs CHI

The biggest challenge for the Blackhawks to go deep in the playoffs will depend on how they play on the road in a hostile environment. Luckily for the Hawks, they have some veterans like Khabibulin and Sammy Pahlsson who've won a Stanley Cup and bring some wisdom to the younger and eager Hawks players. However, I look for Game #1 to be a game where emotions might run wild, as both these teams don't like each other and the thrash talking in the newspaper has already begun, as players like Adam Burish was quoted saying; If somebody wants to get in my face I'm going to get right back in there face, Burish said. I enjoy that confrontation, it doesn't matter who it is, whether it?s their best player or the guy on the bottom of the depth chart.

You can't be saying stuff like this before a series, because veteran guys like Bieksa and Shane O'Brien will remember that kind of stuff in a crease scrum and I can assure you, Burish will be the first player to get a face wash. Look for Game #1 to be a penalty filled game and that means tons of power plays for both teams and I'm going to ride Luongo being more brilliant then Khabibulin in this situation. Canucks are well rested and I look for them to dominate in the second half of tonight's game, as their timing might be off in the first period, but once they score that first one, it could snowball into a 4-2 win for the Canucks.

Here's some interesting numbers backing up the Canucks tonight. When Vancouver is a Home Team during the Month of April and the OVER/UNDER is set at 5.0, the Canucks are 13-4-4 since 1999 in this role. Plus, Vancouver is 11-3 SU this season at home or on the road when the O/U is set at 5.0, which means when you have two good goalies at each end, Luongo wants to outshine his opponent. Why else is the total at 5.0

Play the Canucks.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Drew Gordon

Orlando at PHILADELPHIA -5

First off, don't go crazy putting your kids tuition on the 76ers tonight, as this game will not be the major blowout some are expecting. That being said, the 76ers will win and cover this contest, and here's why:

Obviously the absence of Howard is critical in this match up. For one thing, Howard was dominating the paint, on both ends of the court, in this series. We all know about his exploits on the offensive end, but it was his rebounding and shot blocking abilty on the defensive end that was just as important for the Magic.

Also, all those open shots that Lewis and Turkoglu were used to with Howard on the floor and now gone. Without their manchild center to draw the attention, defenders can now stay at home on the Magic's sharp-shooting forwards, and that's a HUGE defensive advantage for the 76ers. Not only that, but the lane is now wide open for the penetration of such players as Miller and Iguodala.

The injury to Courtney Lee is also a big one. Although he's just a rookie, he was filling an important role on this Orlando team, scoring 15+ points or more in 3 of the 5 games they've played this series. He was the answer when the rest of the Magic went cold, and without him, they lose another offensive option.

Then of course, there's the win or go home factor. At first glance, one might be concerned about the 76ers taking their foot off the gas because of the absence of Howard and Lee, but not when they're playing in an elimination game! Look for the 76ers to remain sharp, attacking early and often against a now vulnerable Magic defense. In the end, the 76ers have too much to lose not to bring their "A" game tonight, and with their best player on the bench in a suit, it wouldn't surprise me if the Magic come out flat, and already looking ahead to Game 7 at home.

Take Philadelphia over Orlando in Game 6 of this Eastern Conference Playoffs series.

2♦ PHILADELPHIA

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION


(559) Portland Trailblazers +5


The Blazers came very close to pulling off a win in game three and
four in Houston and I think they might get that win in this game. The
pressure will be on the Rockets as they once again try to get out of
the first round of the playoffs. This one should be close all the way.
Take the points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence

Play On: Tampa Bay w/Garza vs. Beckett

The Rays host the Red Sox in the opener of a 4-game series in Tampa tonight when Matt Garza matches serves with Josh Beckett. With Beckett struggling early on this season and owning an 8.98 ERA in his last three starts, and having issued 10 walks against 13 strikeouts in those efforts, we'll look for Garza to improve on his 8-1 career team start mark against the BoSox here tonight.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ROCKETMAN

Rocketman Sports is documented as smooth 67% in the NBA playoffs this year. Rocketman members is coming off yet another winner last night with the Boston Red Sox in MLB. Rocketman is a perfect 100% with all premium selections so far this week! Rocketman has two 3* NBA plays for Thursday! Rocketman is now #1 in the nation in MLB this year at The Sports Monitor of Oklahoma City, OK hitting 78% overall and 8-0 100% with TOP MLB plays! Rocketman has hit 80% in Nascar this year! Rocketman is #1 everywhere in the NHL this year clearing an amazing +137.7 units of profit! STOP GAMBLING AND START INVESTING!!


San Diego @ LA Dodgers 10:10 PM EST

Play On: LA Dodgers (Geer/McDonald) Listed

LA Dodgers are 6-0 at home this year. San Diego bullpen has a 5.35 ERA on the road this season. LA Dodgers are scoring 5.7 runs per game overall, 8.3 runs per game at home and 5.7 runs per game against right handed starters this year. Dodgers batting average at home is a whopping .367 as a team. LA Dodgers bullpen has been good with a 3.41 ERA overall and a 3.37 ERA at home this year. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Dodgers tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
Visit

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LockStarPicks
Bonus Play Bulls -3

 

[damonjensen]

Did anyone grab the other Big Al pick or do we still need to pick it up???????

 

[ChipHilton]

Correct thread

Chip.........See Posts 63 and 64 for a perfect example of why a little chatter can go a long way.

No reason to feed these touts with more money than they already make. A simple question to the forum is sometimes well worth it.

Best of Luck.

I tried to send you this message privately but your PM must be turned off.

Rus - I can't tell what posts # 63 and #64 were because again, CPAW and the mods had to move so many of the wasted posts from the service play thread to the chatter/requests thread.

I'm sure there are times where a question can help a situation. Those posts are never called out. It's the DAILY requests for the same touts that get posted anyway and just clutter up the service play thread that are what we are bringing to attention.

Also, while you may have your opinion and desire to post the requests in the wrong thread, it's not your forum, it's RX's. This is the way they set it up and for good reason. I've seen plenty of forums get ruined when things get out of hand. It's starts off small and then gets uncontrollable. I and RX don't want to see that happen here. So there is a reason to maintain some rules.

That being said, I am in complete agreement to limit the funding to these touts in any manner we can. We should just try to do it in the proper manner.


A few comments on your boy, Larry Ness. I'm sure when he advertises his various records for each of the hundereds of types of plays he has, he will count that Cle/Det total as a winner. We all know very few people if any got that as a winner. In fact the closing line was not 1/2pt or 1 pt or 1 1/2 pts or 2 pts but 2 1/2 pts from being a winner. Granted it went up but he was stretching it. Most people don't have access to the grade C books he shops at.

Wish he just ranked his plays 1-10 instead of all the crap he advertises but this way, he knows the record of one of his many names that he gives the plays will be hot and he can advertise that one while ignoring the many ones that are losing money. Can't control the advertising of someone sneaky like that but I guess it's the nature of the business to feed on the weak.

That being said, I haven't played many of his plays lately but he did convince me to grab Tampa Bay last night which lost as a favorite by 8-3. Really believed that would be a winner with Kazmir.

Another thing that bothers me about Larry Ness is in baseball he always advertises his record of some "play" that is hot but doesn't advertise the units. When guarentying plays, he knows he must win so he picks virtually all favorites. There is really no incentive for him to pick dogs. However many of his records he pumps up are merely breaking even in units and many others that he doesn't mention are losing units.

He had a good year two years ago in baseball but other than that, I've noticed a negative units total overall. Be careful with him!

Best of luck to you.

 

[LocksRus]

Chip,

I understand your sentiments with respect to requesting plays, etc. Sometimes it's good just to check with the forum to see if another member has the play. That happened today - someone asked the forum "does anyone have _____ before I purchase? Within a few minutes, another member posted the play because he had already purchased. I understand this can be annoying, but touts making more money off us is even more annoying.

With respect to Ness, I enjoy reading his write-ups. I usually only play his larger selections (25*, Legends, and occassionally a 20*). I agree he has a lot of different names for different plays, but I also understand the guy is in business to make money so I cannot fault him there. I don't think he's a scam artist like some (Stu Feiner).

Anyway, best of luck to you going forward. Btw, who are your favorite cappers to follow/check up on?

I tend to follow Budin on most plays, Ness on big plays, and try to follow Howie Feiner on his godfather plays.

I could use a good baseball capper to tail from here on out. Any suggestions?

 

[oddsonsports]

NBA Playoffs and MLB $2 special (May Promo)

http://hotcappersreport.com/index.html