Cajun Sports
Arizona D-Backs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers
Miller Park will be the site of tonight’s National League battle between the host Milwaukee Brewers and the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks. Arizona was hoping to duplicate last season’s performance during the month of April but they have come up short with a record of 8-12 W/L (-6.2). The D-Backs are averaging a mere 3.6 runs per game with a batting average of .228 and an OBP of .301. Milwaukee is 26-5 W/L (+17.6) in home games versus National League teams with an on base percentage .315 or worse and 17-2 W/L (+14.5) in home games versus National League teams scoring 3.8 or less runs per game on the season the last 3 seasons. The Diamondbacks are even worse when they hit the highway posting a record of 1-2 (-1.0) averaging only 0.7 runs per game and a batting average of .126. Not only are the Diamondbacks struggling to score runs their bullpen ranks near the bottom in ERA with a 5.43 ERA on the year with four save opportunities and three of those blown. If Arizona has managed to get a lead their bullpen has not been able to hold the lead which in turn never allows this team to build any type of momentum. Tonight they will send Max Scherzer to the bump with his 0-2 record in three starts and ERA of 4.91 (1-9 W/L -9.7 units L2Y). The key for Milwaukee will be Scherzer who has averaged 4.9 innings per start and with any offense at all the Brewers should be able to get into the D-Backs bullpen early. Arizona is 15-36 W/L on the road facing a team with a winning record, 4-11 W/L on the road versus right-handed starters, 2-7 W/L as a road underdog and 5-16 W/L on the road their last twenty-one games overall. The Brewers will send right-hander Jeff Suppan to the hill with his 1-2 record and an ERA of 7.32. Over his last three starts the Brewers have gone 2-1 which included wins at Houston 9 to 8 and at the New York Mets 4 to 2. The Brewers have owned this series of late going 10-4 W/L (+5.9) during the last three seasons and 6-1 W/L (+4.7) at home when facing the Diamondbacks. Milwaukee is 36-16 W/L at home when facing a team with a losing record, 5-1 W/L their last six versus a right-handed starter, 5-1 W/L when installed as a favorite and 6-2 W/L their last eight when Suppan takes the bump as a favorite. Suppan (team record) is 37-16 W/L (+18.8) at home with a money line of -100 to -125 since 1997 and (team record) 53-36 W/L (+16.3) at home when the money line is +125 to -125 since 1997. We also have a MLB System that is active for tonight’s game and it says to Play Against MLB (NL) road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a bullpen that blows 38 percent or more of their save opportunities against an opponent with a starting pitcher who has an ERA of 6.70 or higher on the year. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects the Brewers getting the win tonight by 1.76 runs. The Math Model also projects a Brewers win with an average score of 5.7 to 3.9. With all systems go we will back the host here and lay the short price with Suppan as the Brewers get the win.
Graded Selection: 2* Milwaukee Brewers 6 Arizona Diamondbacks 4
Arizona D-Backs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers
Miller Park will be the site of tonight’s National League battle between the host Milwaukee Brewers and the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks. Arizona was hoping to duplicate last season’s performance during the month of April but they have come up short with a record of 8-12 W/L (-6.2). The D-Backs are averaging a mere 3.6 runs per game with a batting average of .228 and an OBP of .301. Milwaukee is 26-5 W/L (+17.6) in home games versus National League teams with an on base percentage .315 or worse and 17-2 W/L (+14.5) in home games versus National League teams scoring 3.8 or less runs per game on the season the last 3 seasons. The Diamondbacks are even worse when they hit the highway posting a record of 1-2 (-1.0) averaging only 0.7 runs per game and a batting average of .126. Not only are the Diamondbacks struggling to score runs their bullpen ranks near the bottom in ERA with a 5.43 ERA on the year with four save opportunities and three of those blown. If Arizona has managed to get a lead their bullpen has not been able to hold the lead which in turn never allows this team to build any type of momentum. Tonight they will send Max Scherzer to the bump with his 0-2 record in three starts and ERA of 4.91 (1-9 W/L -9.7 units L2Y). The key for Milwaukee will be Scherzer who has averaged 4.9 innings per start and with any offense at all the Brewers should be able to get into the D-Backs bullpen early. Arizona is 15-36 W/L on the road facing a team with a winning record, 4-11 W/L on the road versus right-handed starters, 2-7 W/L as a road underdog and 5-16 W/L on the road their last twenty-one games overall. The Brewers will send right-hander Jeff Suppan to the hill with his 1-2 record and an ERA of 7.32. Over his last three starts the Brewers have gone 2-1 which included wins at Houston 9 to 8 and at the New York Mets 4 to 2. The Brewers have owned this series of late going 10-4 W/L (+5.9) during the last three seasons and 6-1 W/L (+4.7) at home when facing the Diamondbacks. Milwaukee is 36-16 W/L at home when facing a team with a losing record, 5-1 W/L their last six versus a right-handed starter, 5-1 W/L when installed as a favorite and 6-2 W/L their last eight when Suppan takes the bump as a favorite. Suppan (team record) is 37-16 W/L (+18.8) at home with a money line of -100 to -125 since 1997 and (team record) 53-36 W/L (+16.3) at home when the money line is +125 to -125 since 1997. We also have a MLB System that is active for tonight’s game and it says to Play Against MLB (NL) road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a bullpen that blows 38 percent or more of their save opportunities against an opponent with a starting pitcher who has an ERA of 6.70 or higher on the year. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects the Brewers getting the win tonight by 1.76 runs. The Math Model also projects a Brewers win with an average score of 5.7 to 3.9. With all systems go we will back the host here and lay the short price with Suppan as the Brewers get the win.
Graded Selection: 2* Milwaukee Brewers 6 Arizona Diamondbacks 4
Jimmy The Moose
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox won another one last night and have now won 9 of their last 10 games. Boston is 12-1 in their last 13 games overall. In their last 11 games as a favorite they are 10-1. Beckett takes the mound tonight and the Red Sox have won 3 of his 4 starts this season. The Rays have lost 2 straight and are 3-7 in their last 10 overall. AT home they have lost 5 of their 7 games this season. Garza is 1-2 on the year with a 4.97 ERA. The Rays are 0-3 in his last 3 starts and his ERA in the 3 games is 6.38. Play on the Boston Red Sox -.
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox won another one last night and have now won 9 of their last 10 games. Boston is 12-1 in their last 13 games overall. In their last 11 games as a favorite they are 10-1. Beckett takes the mound tonight and the Red Sox have won 3 of his 4 starts this season. The Rays have lost 2 straight and are 3-7 in their last 10 overall. AT home they have lost 5 of their 7 games this season. Garza is 1-2 on the year with a 4.97 ERA. The Rays are 0-3 in his last 3 starts and his ERA in the 3 games is 6.38. Play on the Boston Red Sox -.
Ben Burns
Chicago Blackhawks at Vancouver Canucks
Prediction: Vancouver Canucks
While the Hawks are certainly capable and worthy of our respect, I feel that Vancouver is likely to win this series.
After sweeping the Blues, the Canucks have had an extra long layoff. That can work both ways. On one hand, it can cause a little bit of early "rust." On the other hand, it allows players some time to recover from any nagging bumps and bruises.
I expect the Canucks, who were as impressive as any team in the first round, to use the added rest to their advantage. They're an outstanding 15-2 their last 17 home games (4-0 L4) and I look for them to start things off with a victory. Consider Vancouver for the game and the series.
Chicago Blackhawks at Vancouver Canucks
Prediction: Vancouver Canucks
While the Hawks are certainly capable and worthy of our respect, I feel that Vancouver is likely to win this series.
After sweeping the Blues, the Canucks have had an extra long layoff. That can work both ways. On one hand, it can cause a little bit of early "rust." On the other hand, it allows players some time to recover from any nagging bumps and bruises.
I expect the Canucks, who were as impressive as any team in the first round, to use the added rest to their advantage. They're an outstanding 15-2 their last 17 home games (4-0 L4) and I look for them to start things off with a victory. Consider Vancouver for the game and the series.
Allen Eastman
Take 'Over' Boston at Chicago
If we can get a high 190 or low 200 we will be taking this total over. I think that Boston has proven that it is a straight 'over' team without Kevin Garnett. Neither team can stop the other's guards and the 'over' is a crazy 22-6 in Boston's last 28 home games. Also, five of the last six meetings between these two have gone 'over'.
Take 'Over' Boston at Chicago
If we can get a high 190 or low 200 we will be taking this total over. I think that Boston has proven that it is a straight 'over' team without Kevin Garnett. Neither team can stop the other's guards and the 'over' is a crazy 22-6 in Boston's last 28 home games. Also, five of the last six meetings between these two have gone 'over'.
John Martin
1 Unit on New York Yankees -1.5 -115
I like the Yankees to win this one by at least 2 runs Thursday, but more likely 5 runs or more. The Angels are really struggling to score runs this season. They let Mark Teixeira go to New York in the offseason, and their biggest bat in Vlad Guerrero is injured right now. The Angels are only putting up 4.1 runs/game on the road this season as a result. New York is getting their bats going, putting up 33 runs in their last 5 games, scoring better than 6 runs/game during this stretch. This is a huge mismatch on the mound with A.J. Burnett taking down Anthony Ortega. The righty for the Angels in Ortega is off to a tough start in his first year as a starter, giving up 2 home runs in his lone start with a 7.20 ERA. The Angels are only 3-9 in their last 12 games following a win. The Yankees are 8-1 in their last 9 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Yankees are 9-2 in their last 11 home games overall. Instead of laying big juice on the Money Line, I’ll back the Yankees to win this one by at least 2 runs on the -1.5 Run Line at nearly even money. Cash in with New York on the -1.5 Run Line Thursday
1 Unit on New York Yankees -1.5 -115
I like the Yankees to win this one by at least 2 runs Thursday, but more likely 5 runs or more. The Angels are really struggling to score runs this season. They let Mark Teixeira go to New York in the offseason, and their biggest bat in Vlad Guerrero is injured right now. The Angels are only putting up 4.1 runs/game on the road this season as a result. New York is getting their bats going, putting up 33 runs in their last 5 games, scoring better than 6 runs/game during this stretch. This is a huge mismatch on the mound with A.J. Burnett taking down Anthony Ortega. The righty for the Angels in Ortega is off to a tough start in his first year as a starter, giving up 2 home runs in his lone start with a 7.20 ERA. The Angels are only 3-9 in their last 12 games following a win. The Yankees are 8-1 in their last 9 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Yankees are 9-2 in their last 11 home games overall. Instead of laying big juice on the Money Line, I’ll back the Yankees to win this one by at least 2 runs on the -1.5 Run Line at nearly even money. Cash in with New York on the -1.5 Run Line Thursday
Bobby Maxwell
Red Sox -110 at TAMPA BAY
Today's FREE winner comes from the diamond as we go with the Red Sox to get it done in Tampa Bay against the Rays.
It looks a little like deja vu tonight for the Red Sox as they return to Tropicana Field and face the pitcher who helped knock them out of the playoffs last year in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series.
Matt Garza (1-2, 4.97 ERA) is on the hill for the Rays, facing the Sox who he beat in Game 7 after going seven innings and allowing just one run, earning himself ALCS MVP honors. But look for this series, especially tonight, to be a lot different.
Boston has won 12 of 13 games, they are scoring runs and they are the hottest team in baseball. They got a 6-5 win in Cleveland on Thursday when they got the first ever homer from Jonathan Van Every in the 10-inning and rallied from a 5-0 deficit to win 6-5. Josh Beckett (2-1, 6.00 ERA) is on the hill tonight and he's already beaten the Rays this year, giving up one run in seven innings on April 7 as Boston got the 5-3 victory.
The Rays are in last place in the A.L. East and the Red Sox are pounding the ball and winning games.
Play Boston to get this one against the Rays.
2♦ BOSTON
Red Sox -110 at TAMPA BAY
Today's FREE winner comes from the diamond as we go with the Red Sox to get it done in Tampa Bay against the Rays.
It looks a little like deja vu tonight for the Red Sox as they return to Tropicana Field and face the pitcher who helped knock them out of the playoffs last year in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series.
Matt Garza (1-2, 4.97 ERA) is on the hill for the Rays, facing the Sox who he beat in Game 7 after going seven innings and allowing just one run, earning himself ALCS MVP honors. But look for this series, especially tonight, to be a lot different.
Boston has won 12 of 13 games, they are scoring runs and they are the hottest team in baseball. They got a 6-5 win in Cleveland on Thursday when they got the first ever homer from Jonathan Van Every in the 10-inning and rallied from a 5-0 deficit to win 6-5. Josh Beckett (2-1, 6.00 ERA) is on the hill tonight and he's already beaten the Rays this year, giving up one run in seven innings on April 7 as Boston got the 5-3 victory.
The Rays are in last place in the A.L. East and the Red Sox are pounding the ball and winning games.
Play Boston to get this one against the Rays.
2♦ BOSTON
Jeff Benton
Orlando at PHILADELPHIA -5
For Thursday’s Bonus Play, we’ll head to the NBA playoffs and back the 76ers minus the points in their win-or-go-home contest against Orlando.
Simply put, if the Magic have struggled as much as they have in this series with Dwight Howard on the floor, how in the world are they going to overcome the big man’s absence tonight? As you likely now know, Howard was suspended for Game 6 because of a cheap-shot elbow he threw at the back of Sam Dalembert’s head. So gone from the Orlando lineup is an All-Star big man who has A) posted a double-double in every game in this series; B) blocked 14 shots in five games; and C) averaged 24 points and 15.8 boards per game.
You tell me who on Orlando’s team is going to pick up that kind of slack? Because I don’t see anyone on the roster who can do it, particularly given the fact that with Howard on the floor, the Magic have lost twice to the Sixers outright, while two of its three wins were struggles, including a last-second 84-81 victory in Game 4 in Philadelphia.
Lastly, not only have the Magic failed to cover in four of the five games in this series, but they’re still just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games, including 0-5 ATS (1-4 SU) on the road. Meanwhile, the Sixers have cashed in five of their last seven home games (2-0 ATS at home in this series) and they’re an impressive 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games against teams from the Southeast Division.
Bottom line: Without Howard, this is a throwaway game for the Magic, and once they get down early, look for coach Stan Van Gundy to do the smart thing and rest his starters for a Game 7 back in Orlando. Lay the points with the home chalk.
3? PHILADELPHIA
Orlando at PHILADELPHIA -5
For Thursday’s Bonus Play, we’ll head to the NBA playoffs and back the 76ers minus the points in their win-or-go-home contest against Orlando.
Simply put, if the Magic have struggled as much as they have in this series with Dwight Howard on the floor, how in the world are they going to overcome the big man’s absence tonight? As you likely now know, Howard was suspended for Game 6 because of a cheap-shot elbow he threw at the back of Sam Dalembert’s head. So gone from the Orlando lineup is an All-Star big man who has A) posted a double-double in every game in this series; B) blocked 14 shots in five games; and C) averaged 24 points and 15.8 boards per game.
You tell me who on Orlando’s team is going to pick up that kind of slack? Because I don’t see anyone on the roster who can do it, particularly given the fact that with Howard on the floor, the Magic have lost twice to the Sixers outright, while two of its three wins were struggles, including a last-second 84-81 victory in Game 4 in Philadelphia.
Lastly, not only have the Magic failed to cover in four of the five games in this series, but they’re still just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games, including 0-5 ATS (1-4 SU) on the road. Meanwhile, the Sixers have cashed in five of their last seven home games (2-0 ATS at home in this series) and they’re an impressive 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games against teams from the Southeast Division.
Bottom line: Without Howard, this is a throwaway game for the Magic, and once they get down early, look for coach Stan Van Gundy to do the smart thing and rest his starters for a Game 7 back in Orlando. Lay the points with the home chalk.
3? PHILADELPHIA
Karl Garrett
Orlando at PHILADELPHIA -4'
G-Man not crazy about the side in this Magic-Sixers game, but I am willing to take a little action on the total. I have a feeling this game is going to once again land on the LOW side.
Thus far, the last 4 in this series have landed UNDER the posted total, as have 6 of the last 8, and 7 of the last 10 games played between the clubs.
The loss of Dwight Howards points is going to be hard for Orlando to make up, further showing why the UNDER is the way to go tonight.
Finally, for the season Philadelphia is 16-25-2 UNDER the posted total this season in their 43 home games to date, whiel Orlando is 21-22 UNDER the posted price in their 43 away games to date.
Stick with the trends, and play Game Six to land LOW.
2♦ UNDER
Orlando at PHILADELPHIA -4'
G-Man not crazy about the side in this Magic-Sixers game, but I am willing to take a little action on the total. I have a feeling this game is going to once again land on the LOW side.
Thus far, the last 4 in this series have landed UNDER the posted total, as have 6 of the last 8, and 7 of the last 10 games played between the clubs.
The loss of Dwight Howards points is going to be hard for Orlando to make up, further showing why the UNDER is the way to go tonight.
Finally, for the season Philadelphia is 16-25-2 UNDER the posted total this season in their 43 home games to date, whiel Orlando is 21-22 UNDER the posted price in their 43 away games to date.
Stick with the trends, and play Game Six to land LOW.
2♦ UNDER
Sports Gambling Hotline
Orlando +4' at PHILADELPHIA
We are well aware of the suspension of Dwight Howard for this game, but we are not very excited about laying a couple of baskets with the 76ers.
Philadelphia has only been favored once in the last fifteen meetings between the teams, and they lost that game outright.
Orlando is still a positive 26-16-1 against the spread on the road this year, while Philadelphia is under .500 for the season on their home hardwood, at 20-21-2 against the math.
No doubt Philly should take advantage of a Howard-less Orlando team, but Orlando should still be able to stay inside of this impost.
We are calling for a close game all the way, and for the Magic plus the points to stay inside of this impost.
Play on Orlando!
1♦ ORLANDO
Orlando +4' at PHILADELPHIA
We are well aware of the suspension of Dwight Howard for this game, but we are not very excited about laying a couple of baskets with the 76ers.
Philadelphia has only been favored once in the last fifteen meetings between the teams, and they lost that game outright.
Orlando is still a positive 26-16-1 against the spread on the road this year, while Philadelphia is under .500 for the season on their home hardwood, at 20-21-2 against the math.
No doubt Philly should take advantage of a Howard-less Orlando team, but Orlando should still be able to stay inside of this impost.
We are calling for a close game all the way, and for the Magic plus the points to stay inside of this impost.
Play on Orlando!
1♦ ORLANDO
Scott Delaney
Play Los Angeles on the Run Line in its NL West showdown tonight with San Diego.
I know the Dodgers are coming home after getting shelled by the Giants, but that's even more reason to believe they'll be looking for the win tonight. It's the start of a four-game weekend set, and they'll be out to avenge last night's loss immediately.
They shouldn't have any trouble getting into a rhythm against San Diego's Josh Geer, who has shown a knack for leaving his pitches high in the zone, a mistake that will cost him in Dodger Stadium against the men in blue.
I know right-hander James McDonald hasn't exactly been the go-to guy this season, but he's shown flashes of dominance against the D'Backs, Giants and the Rockies twice. The key thing to make note of is how his innings have progressively increased since April 10, from just 2 1/3 frames to five in his last start, in Denver.
He catches a break as the Friars come into Chavez Ravine after swinging away in the rarified air inside Coors Field, and won't get any time to recover in having to play immediately against their rivals. I doubt that offense will have its timing down right away.
Let's play the Dodgers in a series-opening rout as they improve to 7-0 at home this season with their 9th win in San Diego's last 12 trips to LA.
L.A. DODGERS
Play Los Angeles on the Run Line in its NL West showdown tonight with San Diego.
I know the Dodgers are coming home after getting shelled by the Giants, but that's even more reason to believe they'll be looking for the win tonight. It's the start of a four-game weekend set, and they'll be out to avenge last night's loss immediately.
They shouldn't have any trouble getting into a rhythm against San Diego's Josh Geer, who has shown a knack for leaving his pitches high in the zone, a mistake that will cost him in Dodger Stadium against the men in blue.
I know right-hander James McDonald hasn't exactly been the go-to guy this season, but he's shown flashes of dominance against the D'Backs, Giants and the Rockies twice. The key thing to make note of is how his innings have progressively increased since April 10, from just 2 1/3 frames to five in his last start, in Denver.
He catches a break as the Friars come into Chavez Ravine after swinging away in the rarified air inside Coors Field, and won't get any time to recover in having to play immediately against their rivals. I doubt that offense will have its timing down right away.
Let's play the Dodgers in a series-opening rout as they improve to 7-0 at home this season with their 9th win in San Diego's last 12 trips to LA.
L.A. DODGERS
Matt Rivers
For Thursday lay the points with the Rockets.
Experience, experience, experience!
Portland has had a great season and is a team to be reckoned with in the future for sure but the Blazers are just too young today and it will show. Brandon Roy is blossoming into a Superstar, LaMarcus Aldridge may not be far behind, Greg Oden will get better and become a defensive force and overall these Trailblazers are very solid.
But today is a tough tough spot for the young boys from Portland to be successful in. For one today's visitors are not the same team on the road as they are at the Rose Garden. They did play decent enough competitive ball in the two road games in this series at the Toyota Center, covering one of them, but it was the Rockets who were pretty much in the lead in both games throughout and never in true danger of not winning either game.
Now in a do or die situation on the highway I don't see this young Portland team being able to muster enough offense against Ron Artest, Yao, Shane Battier and the very solid Rockets' defense. Roy probably will get his but other sources are going to be hard to come by and in the end Houston is just going to be a bit too much and advance in an 8-10 point victory.
For Thursday lay the points with the Rockets.
Experience, experience, experience!
Portland has had a great season and is a team to be reckoned with in the future for sure but the Blazers are just too young today and it will show. Brandon Roy is blossoming into a Superstar, LaMarcus Aldridge may not be far behind, Greg Oden will get better and become a defensive force and overall these Trailblazers are very solid.
But today is a tough tough spot for the young boys from Portland to be successful in. For one today's visitors are not the same team on the road as they are at the Rose Garden. They did play decent enough competitive ball in the two road games in this series at the Toyota Center, covering one of them, but it was the Rockets who were pretty much in the lead in both games throughout and never in true danger of not winning either game.
Now in a do or die situation on the highway I don't see this young Portland team being able to muster enough offense against Ron Artest, Yao, Shane Battier and the very solid Rockets' defense. Roy probably will get his but other sources are going to be hard to come by and in the end Houston is just going to be a bit too much and advance in an 8-10 point victory.
Red Dog Sports
LA Angels at New York Yankees
Play over 10 runs as the Yankees have played 4 overs and just 2 unders at home. Together these two have played 24 overs, 15 unders and a push this year. Ortega has an ERA of 7.20 and Burnett's ERA is 5.47. The pitchers have combined for 4 overs and one under this year. The last 14 meetings have provided 10 overs and 4 unders. Play the over on Thursday!
LA Angels at New York Yankees
Play over 10 runs as the Yankees have played 4 overs and just 2 unders at home. Together these two have played 24 overs, 15 unders and a push this year. Ortega has an ERA of 7.20 and Burnett's ERA is 5.47. The pitchers have combined for 4 overs and one under this year. The last 14 meetings have provided 10 overs and 4 unders. Play the over on Thursday!
John Ryan
Florida Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs Pick Title: Cubs
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Cubs as they square off against the Marlins. Supporting this graded play is a series of strong game dependent angles. Note that Chicago has become a very good investment in specific roles. Note that they are 15-5 (+9.5 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons; 37-13 (+17.3 Units) against the money line in home games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 23-10 (+11.7 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 3 seasons. Florida starter Volstad is off to a solid start this season, but this matchup against the Cubs simply does not favor him at all. He has allowed a 316 BA in the respective careers of the Cubs players. Volstad throws a variety of pitches and does not rely on his FB for first pitch strikes. Problem is that it is far more difficult to throw a curve for a strike than a FB. The Cubs are a patient hitting team and will look to work the count and make him throw pitches in order to get to a favorable hitter’s count. On the first pitch, he throws FB 69% of the time, curve 24%. When behind in the count he throws FB 77%, curve 11%, and change 8%. Curve balls must be hit the opposite way and the Cubs have many hitters on their roster than truly excel - like Manny does - in going the opposite way consistently. Take the Cubs.
Florida Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs Pick Title: Cubs
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Cubs as they square off against the Marlins. Supporting this graded play is a series of strong game dependent angles. Note that Chicago has become a very good investment in specific roles. Note that they are 15-5 (+9.5 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons; 37-13 (+17.3 Units) against the money line in home games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 23-10 (+11.7 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 3 seasons. Florida starter Volstad is off to a solid start this season, but this matchup against the Cubs simply does not favor him at all. He has allowed a 316 BA in the respective careers of the Cubs players. Volstad throws a variety of pitches and does not rely on his FB for first pitch strikes. Problem is that it is far more difficult to throw a curve for a strike than a FB. The Cubs are a patient hitting team and will look to work the count and make him throw pitches in order to get to a favorable hitter’s count. On the first pitch, he throws FB 69% of the time, curve 24%. When behind in the count he throws FB 77%, curve 11%, and change 8%. Curve balls must be hit the opposite way and the Cubs have many hitters on their roster than truly excel - like Manny does - in going the opposite way consistently. Take the Cubs.
Jrtips
BLAZERS vs. ROCKETS
The Blazers won 88-77 on Tuesday night when 7-foot-6 Yao, a seven-time All-Star and Houston's leading scorer at 19.7 points per game took only four shots in the 4th quarter when the Rockets were outscored 24-15. Yao scored 24 points in Game 1 and 21 in Game 4 and the Rockets won so the Rockets will go back to getting the ball inside. Luis Scola is the Rockets' leading scorer in the series, averaging 17.6 points per game because Portland's defense on Yao has opened up mid-range jumpers for the power forward who is shooting 58.5 percent from the field. Scola scored 21 in Game 5, but had only one basket in the fourth quarter. LaMarcus Aldridge scored 25 points for Portland in Game 5 while Brandon Roy had 25. Aldridge scored 27 in the Blazers' other win in the series but has averaged only 13 points in his team's three losses. The Blazers have lost 12 of their last 13 games at the Toyota Center and 10 of their last 11 road playoff games overall while the Rockets have won eight straight home games. After topping 100 points in the first two games, Houston has averaged only 84 points in the last three. The Rockets shot 39.8 percent from the field in Game 4, but still won. The Blazers will try to become just the ninth team in NBA history out of 185 to come back from a 3-1 deficit and win a seven-game playoff series. The Rockets are the veteran team with the dominate force inside that they will take advantage of tonight. They were up four points going intO the fourth quarter in the last game in Portland. The Rockets are at home where they have won eight straight and they realize the sense of urgency. Tonight, they will continue to go to Yao who will either score or get fouled and go to the line where he is an excellent foul shooter. The Rockets will play shuit down defense and put the Blazers away tonight.
TAKE HOUSTON-5
BLAZERS vs. ROCKETS
The Blazers won 88-77 on Tuesday night when 7-foot-6 Yao, a seven-time All-Star and Houston's leading scorer at 19.7 points per game took only four shots in the 4th quarter when the Rockets were outscored 24-15. Yao scored 24 points in Game 1 and 21 in Game 4 and the Rockets won so the Rockets will go back to getting the ball inside. Luis Scola is the Rockets' leading scorer in the series, averaging 17.6 points per game because Portland's defense on Yao has opened up mid-range jumpers for the power forward who is shooting 58.5 percent from the field. Scola scored 21 in Game 5, but had only one basket in the fourth quarter. LaMarcus Aldridge scored 25 points for Portland in Game 5 while Brandon Roy had 25. Aldridge scored 27 in the Blazers' other win in the series but has averaged only 13 points in his team's three losses. The Blazers have lost 12 of their last 13 games at the Toyota Center and 10 of their last 11 road playoff games overall while the Rockets have won eight straight home games. After topping 100 points in the first two games, Houston has averaged only 84 points in the last three. The Rockets shot 39.8 percent from the field in Game 4, but still won. The Blazers will try to become just the ninth team in NBA history out of 185 to come back from a 3-1 deficit and win a seven-game playoff series. The Rockets are the veteran team with the dominate force inside that they will take advantage of tonight. They were up four points going intO the fourth quarter in the last game in Portland. The Rockets are at home where they have won eight straight and they realize the sense of urgency. Tonight, they will continue to go to Yao who will either score or get fouled and go to the line where he is an excellent foul shooter. The Rockets will play shuit down defense and put the Blazers away tonight.
TAKE HOUSTON-5
LT Profits
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay
The Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays opened this season with a three-game series in Fenway Park, and none of those games exceeded a combined nine runs scored. Look for more of the same tonight.
Josh Beckett is coming off of his worst start of the year, as he was absolutely lit up by the New York Yankees for eight earned runs and10 hits in just five innings in a wild 16-11 Red Sox win last Saturday. That outing alone has skewed his numbers, so his current 6.00 ERA and 1.62 WHIP are quite deceptive.
Becket had a 3.79 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP going into that debacle, and we expect him to return to that kind of form here. After all, he has allowed exactly one earned run in five of his eight starts vs. the Rays since the start of last season, and exactly two earned runs in another one. One of those one-run efforts came on Opening Day this year, when he allowed only two hits while recording 10 strikeouts in seven innings.
Very similarly, Matt Garza has had just one bad start out of four starts so far, but that bad outing has skewed his numbers. Garza has a 4.97 ERA and 1.30 WHIP overall, which is not terrible considering that includes his start vs. the White Sox on April 19, where he allowed seven earned runs and 11 baserunners in 5.2 innings. Garza has pitched great vs. Boston, allowing exactly one run in each of his last three starts against them while allowing just 12 hits in 20 innings.
So look for both hurlers to pitch at there normal levels tonight, which is bad news for the two offenses.
Pick: Red Sox / Rays Under 9
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay
The Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays opened this season with a three-game series in Fenway Park, and none of those games exceeded a combined nine runs scored. Look for more of the same tonight.
Josh Beckett is coming off of his worst start of the year, as he was absolutely lit up by the New York Yankees for eight earned runs and10 hits in just five innings in a wild 16-11 Red Sox win last Saturday. That outing alone has skewed his numbers, so his current 6.00 ERA and 1.62 WHIP are quite deceptive.
Becket had a 3.79 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP going into that debacle, and we expect him to return to that kind of form here. After all, he has allowed exactly one earned run in five of his eight starts vs. the Rays since the start of last season, and exactly two earned runs in another one. One of those one-run efforts came on Opening Day this year, when he allowed only two hits while recording 10 strikeouts in seven innings.
Very similarly, Matt Garza has had just one bad start out of four starts so far, but that bad outing has skewed his numbers. Garza has a 4.97 ERA and 1.30 WHIP overall, which is not terrible considering that includes his start vs. the White Sox on April 19, where he allowed seven earned runs and 11 baserunners in 5.2 innings. Garza has pitched great vs. Boston, allowing exactly one run in each of his last three starts against them while allowing just 12 hits in 20 innings.
So look for both hurlers to pitch at there normal levels tonight, which is bad news for the two offenses.
Pick: Red Sox / Rays Under 9
Tom Freese
Arizona at Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 36-16 their last 52 home games vs. losing teams and they are 11-1 in the last 12 starts made by Jeff Suppan after allowing two or less runs in their last game. The Brewers are 7-1 their last 8 games overall and they are 4-0 their four home games. Arizona starter Max Scherzer is 1-9 his last ten starts overall. The Diamondbacks are 15-36 their last 51 road games vs. winning teams and they are 2-7 their last 9 games as road underdogs. The D'Backs are 4-11 their last 15 games with the Brewers. PLAY ON MILWAUKEE (Suppan vs. Scherzer)
Arizona at Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 36-16 their last 52 home games vs. losing teams and they are 11-1 in the last 12 starts made by Jeff Suppan after allowing two or less runs in their last game. The Brewers are 7-1 their last 8 games overall and they are 4-0 their four home games. Arizona starter Max Scherzer is 1-9 his last ten starts overall. The Diamondbacks are 15-36 their last 51 road games vs. winning teams and they are 2-7 their last 9 games as road underdogs. The D'Backs are 4-11 their last 15 games with the Brewers. PLAY ON MILWAUKEE (Suppan vs. Scherzer)
