NCAA Tournament Opening Betting Line Report: Oddsmakers open Oregon-Oklahoma State at pick 'em
By COLIN KELLY
OK, the NCAA Tournament bracket is out, and there’s much gnashing of teeth and wringing of hands about who got seeded where, and who got left out. But let’s get to what’s really important here:
What’s the spread?
The tourney’s round-of-64 on Thursday and Friday – 16 games per day of pure basketball bliss – will have its share of blowouts, nailbiters and shockers. Covers got a trio of oddsmakers to weigh in on the games they found most challenging to set the line on: Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG
Technology; John Lester, senior lines manager ; and Mike Jerome, oddsmaker.
WEST REGION
No. 4 North Carolina (-9) vs. No. 13 Harvard
“These two teams are total polar opposites,” said Simbal, whose operation runs several Las Vegas sportsbooks, including the M, the Palms, Cosmopolitan and
the Venetian. “Harvard wants to score 45 points a game and win, and Carolina wants to score 85 points a game and win.
“The Ivy League does a good job of dictating pace in NCAA Tournament games. We tossed around 7 points (to) 10 points. We had more conversation about
this game than any other game.”
No. 5 Arkansas (-7) vs. No. 12 Wofford
It looks like a mismatch, but Simbal warns against leaping too quickly.
“We have Wofford in the top 30 in all of our defensive metrics, which historically bodes quite well for tournament teams,” he said, noting that puts the Terriers in the top-10 percentile among the 300-plus NCAA Division I teams. “I wouldn’t be surprised if that number creeps toward Wofford as the week goes on.”
No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 9 Oklahoma State, pick ‘em
“The big question is what kind of defense will show up for Okie State?” Lester said. “Because we know Joseph Young and the Ducks can put up points in bunches. The Cowboys are quite bipolar, and this could get ugly if Mr. Hyde shows up.”
Jerome chimed in on this game, too.
“If there is a game that looks like a coin toss, it’s this one,” he said. “And it makes sense, as the line is a pick 'em.”
No. 7 Virginia Commonwealth vs. No. 10 Ohio State (-2.5)
“VCU is a bit overrated in our eyes, but people recognize the Rams as a giant-killer come tourney time,” Lester said. “This is a good matchup, but the Buckeyes’ D'Angelo Russell should have his way here, and the absence of VCU’s Briante Weber (torn ACL last month) cannot be underestimated.”
Jerome isn’t counting out the Rams.
“Shaka Smart has his team playing great basketball when it matters,” he said. “The Buckeyes, on the other hand, have been a bit inconsistent, yet are a slight
2.5-point favorite.
SOUTH REGION
No. 4 Georgetown (-8) vs. No. 13 Eastern Washington
This game presents about as long a road trip as possible for the Hoyas, and about as short a trip as possible for the Eagles.
“It’s in Seattle. That’s always tricky, because it’s basically a home game for Eastern Washington,” Simbal said, noting he and his oddsmaking crew prefer the straight math of numbers, and that these quasi-home games skew that formula. “There was a similar situation two years ago when UNLV played California in San Jose. Do you treat that as a home game or not? And even if you don’t treat it as a home game, the public will treat it as a home game.”
Lester had some thoughts on this game, as well.
“It feels like a very similar matchup that Georgetown had a few years ago against Ohio,” he said. “The Eagles run and chuck up a lot of 3-pointers. The squares have no clue about Eastern Washington, but the sharps certainly know who Tyler Harvey is, so we had to be careful with the line.”
No. 5 Utah (-6) vs. No. 12 Stephen F. Austin
This could be one of those seemingly annual 12-5 upsets.
“Stephen F. Austin won a game in the NCAA Tournament last year, and they’re returning everyone,” Simbal said. “The Lumberjacks were huge favorites in all their (Southland) Conference games, and covered most of them. Utah is a team that struggled late and lost a bunch of games.”
No. 8 San Diego State (-2.5) vs. No. 9 St. John’s
“The Chris Obekpa suspension complicates things a bit for St. John's. The Red Storm will have to adjust in a big way,” Lester said. “You can't ever really trust San Diego State in this tournament, but the Aztecs will have a big advantage on the boards.”
The game has no shortage of name recognition on the bench, too.
“It’s another game with some big-name coaches: San Diego State’s Steve Fisher, St. John’s Steve Lavin, and Gene Keady, an assistant with the Red Storm,” Jerome said. “Good defense vs. good offense usually equals a win by the defensive-minded team.”
No. 11 UCLA vs No. 6 Southern Methodist (-3)
“SMU’s Larry Brown faces the team he used to coach back in the 1970s,” Jerome said. “Many ‘experts’ didn’t like how UCLA got a favorable seed. SMU will likely be one of the more popular bets on Thursday. SMU opened at -2 and moved to -3 less than an hour later.”
MIDWEST REGION
No. 6 Butler vs. No. 11 Texas, pick ‘em
Many TV analysts were growling about Texas even getting into the tournament. For oddsmakers, it created some difficulty, too.
“We knew the trickiest team was going to be Texas,” Simbal said. “By all the statistics and the math, the Longhorns are a top-20 team. But they can’t win a close game if their life depended on it. Now, they’re playing Butler, which is a similar team. They both like to grind it out.”
The implication: Grind-it-out games are close games, which don’t typically suit Texas.
No. 4 Maryland (-4) vs. No. 13 Valparaiso
Simbal said the Terrapins are the antithesis of Texas, presenting an altogether different challenge.
“The math and the statistics don’t match up, but they win every close game. They are super good in close games,” he said, noting the Terps went 9-1 in games decided by 5 points or less. “We have them at -4 as a No. 4 seed against a 13 seed. That shows how confident – or unconfident – we are in them.”
No. 7 Wichita State (-5) vs. No. 10 Indiana
“Wichita State deserved better than a No. 7 seed, and this is a tough matchup,” Lester said. “Indy will want to run, run, run, while the Shockers will try to slow everything down. We'll probably be split on this game, but the Hoosiers could easily ‘upset’ the Shockers.”
Jerome agreed with Lester.
“It seems like the Shockers got slighted a bit, while Indiana seemed to get seeded a lot higher than many thought,” Jerome said.
No. 8 Cincinnati vs. No. 9 Purdue (-1)
“This is a tough draw for Purdue, because its bigs should be offset by a Cincy squad that can also bang down low,” Lester said. “It should be a very grind-it-out type of game, and it could come down to which team can hit some shots from outside.”
No. 5 West Virginia (-4) vs. Buffalo
“Coach Bobby Hurley has got the Bulls playing bullish hoops,” Jerome said. “West Virginia is only laying 4 because Juwan Staten (knee) is questionable.”
EAST REGION
No. 5 Northern Iowa (-7.5) vs. No. 12 Wyoming
The Cowboys present a dilemma because they wouldn’t be in the field if they hadn’t won the Mountain West Conference tournament, and they wouldn’t have won the tournament if Larry Nance Jr. hadn’t returned late last month after missing a handful of games with mononucleosis.
“Nance was the Player of the Year in the Mountain West, so Wyoming will have the best player on the court,” Simbal said. “But it’s very hard to handicap because of (the time Nance missed). Who knows how good they would’ve been if he had been there all year?”
Lester keyed in on this game, as well.
“I think Wyoming is a very good squad with two high-caliber players in Larry Nance Jr. and Josh Adams. The Cowboys play defense, grind, and they are healthy,” he said. “Like Wichita State, Northern Iowa got a bad draw and may be underseeded. This could very well be a 5/12 upset.”
Jerome also weighed in on the mid-major dual.
“Two schools lock horns from two of the best mid-major conferences -- the Missouri Valley and the Mountain West,” he said. “Northern Iowa has the best player on the floor in Seth Tuttle, but he could be neutralized by Nance.”
No. 4 Louisville (-9) vs. No. 13 UC Irvine
“Rick Pitino better put together a good game plan, because this is a ripe spot for an upset,” Lester said. “Louisville is overseeded, but the betting public has no clue about UC Irvine, so this is a tough line to set.”
No. 8 North Carolina State (-1) vs. No. 9 Louisiana State
“LSU really should be ashamed of the way it lost to Auburn in its last game,” Jerome said. “There’s big injury news here, with N.C. State's Anthony Barber (head). He is listed as probable to play.”
