Thursday 3/10/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Bulls (32-30) at Spurs (54-10)

Date: March 10, 2016 8:00 PM EDT

While Gregg Popovich was away, the San Antonio Spurs had a minor hiccup.

Another one shouldn't be expected Thursday night when he returns, even facing the Eastern Conference team to have the most success against the Spurs in recent years and already beat them this season.

That club is the Chicago Bulls, but they won't have Jimmy Butler - possibly for a while - and haven't won on the road in more than a month whereas San Antonio hasn't lost a regular-season home game in about a year.

The Spurs' run of 39 consecutive home victories goes back to an overtime loss to Cleveland last March 12 and is one shy of the Orlando Magic (1995-96) for the third-longest streak in NBA history.

San Antonio's .832 win percentage at home since the start of 2009-10 is easily the NBA's best, but the Bulls have split six games there in that span. Their 7-5 record versus the Spurs (54-10) during that time is bettered only by Portland's 14-9 mark.

Chicago (32-30) beat San Antonio 92-89 on Nov. 30, though that was before injuries derailed its season. The Bulls' seven-game road losing streak is their longest since an eight-game skid early in 2009-10.

The current slide dates to a win in Sacramento on Feb. 3, the first of 13 games which Butler has missed due to knee trouble. He sat out Monday's 100-90 win over Milwaukee, two days after returning from an 11-game absence to score 24 against Houston.

Coach Fred Hoiberg originally believed Butler would return for this game after the swelling had gone down, but his leading scorer instead headed to Alabama to meet with Dr. James Andrews for a second opinion.

Chicago, which also lost Aaron Brooks (patellar tendinitis) and Bobby Portis (orbital contusion) in Monday's win, has had 142 player games missed due to injury.

'I mean at this point it's borderline comical,' veteran Mike Dunleavy said. 'We just can't stay healthy for whatever reason.'

While it's unclear if Brooks or Portis will play Thursday, Popovich will be back after missing two games to tend to a family medical condition.

The first one went poorly, with the Spurs having an eight-game winning streak snapped with Monday's 99-91 defeat in Indiana. They shot a season-worst 35.4 percent but responded the next night to hit 55.3 percent in a 116-91 win over Minnesota.

'I thought guys came back understanding we have to be better on both ends of the floor,' said LaMarcus Aldridge, who had 29 points and is averaging 25.4 over his last five games.

Assistant Ettore Messina was the head man in place of Popovich.

'The machine is a well-oiled machine,' Messina said. 'It goes on. You try to sit at the wheel and steer and try not to mess it up. Keep it straight.'

The Spurs weren't straight from 3-point range without Popovich, going 8 of 47. They were 2 of 14 against the Bulls in November, an area that has made a big difference in this series with San Antonio hitting 29.9 percent in the last seven losses and 50.0 percent in the last five wins.

The Bulls have won four straight over San Antonio when Derrick Rose has played. He's shooting 55.1 percent and averaging 21.4 points since the All-Star break.

It's unclear if he will face Tony Parker, who sat out Tuesday with a toe injury after totaling 10 points on 4-of-17 shooting in the previous three games.

Veteran guard Kevin Martin could make his Spurs debut after officially being signed Wednesday. Martin was bought out by Minnesota on March 1 after averaging 10.6 points in 39 games, 7.0 below his career scoring average.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Suns (17-47) at Nuggets (26-38)

Date: March 10, 2016 9:00 PM EDT

While Devin Booker is providing the Phoenix Suns with a reason to be optimistic, Kenneth Faried is living up to his tremendous potential for the Denver Nuggets.

Booker will try to continue his emergence for the visiting Suns on Thursday night as Faried looks to help the Nuggets chase a season high-tying third straight win.

In the wake of losing starting guards Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight to injury, the Suns have to like what they've seen since giving their rookie guard an extended look.

After breaking out by averaging 20.1 points over a 10-game stretch, Booker fell into a bit of a slump by scoring 10.8 per game on 29 percent shooting over his next eight, but he's bounced back with an average of 26.8 in his last four.

Booker was a bright spot Wednesday, pouring in 32 points in a 128-97 home loss to New York. Alex Len overcame a slow start to finish with 14 points and 10 rebounds, giving him 19.3 and 13.7 per game over six consecutive double-doubles.

After losing a franchise record-tying 17 straight road games, Phoenix won two in a row before returning home Wednesday. Now it'll try to take three of four from Denver with its first three-game road win streak since a five-game run Dec. 17-28, 2014.

"We need to come out more aggressive. We need to hit first - that's how we were able to have success on the road," Booker said. "Those first five minutes will be important."

Faried has given the Nuggets a tremendous spark lately. The fifth-year forward was averaging just 12.2 points and 8.7 rebounds on Feb. 23 before putting up 19 and 11 with six double-doubles over his last seven games.

After becoming the fourth player this season to have at least 25 points and 20 rebounds in a game with those exact totals in Sunday's 116-114 overtime win over Dallas, Faried finished with 24 and 10 in a 110-94 win over the Knicks on Tuesday.

"He's probably top-three best energy players in the league," rookie point guard Emmanuel Mudiay said. "As long as he plays with that energy, it's good for us."

Mudiay also has been good for the Nuggets (26-38), averaging 19.5 points in his last four games. Gary Harris has scored 16.9 per game over his past seven, while Nikola Jokic has averaged 15.5 points and 9.8 boards in his last four.

The Nuggets hope to up their mark to 4-2 on this seven-game homestand by winning three in a row for the first time since Dec. 11-15. However, they've dropped eight of 10 overall and four of the past five home matchups with Phoenix (17-47).

Knight had a career-high 38 points and 11 rebounds in a 114-107 win there Nov. 20 before finishing with 21 points and 10 assists in a 104-96 home loss Dec. 23 when Booker was out for the Suns and Mudiay sat for the Nuggets.

It's uncertain whether Knight will return on this visit after missing 21 games due to a groin injury. He's scoring a team-high 19.7 per game with Bledsoe out for the season and was cleared to play Wednesday but said he didn't feel ready.

Denver's Will Barton has averaged 18 points while hitting 10 of 20 from 3-point range and pulling down 8.3 rebounds in his last four meetings.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Cavaliers (45-18) at Lakers (14-51)

Date: March 10, 2016 10:30 PM EDT

While a number of young stars are giving the Los Angeles Lakers hope for a bright future, this mostly dismal season has more to do with honoring Kobe Bryant's legacy. He's getting one final chance to square off against LeBron James.

With Bryant questionable for the last matchup between the superstars, Julius Randle, Jordan Clarkson and D'Angelo Russell will try to lead the Lakers to a surprising three-game winning streak Thursday night against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Los Angeles (14-51) owns the worst record in the Western Conference but is showing signs after stunning Golden State 112-95 on Sunday and beating Orlando 107-98 two days later.

Bryant sat out against the Magic with a nagging shoulder injury, leaving Randle, Clarkson and Russell to combine for 74 points. They had 58 against the Warriors, while Randle added 14 boards.

"You could see them challenging each other on the court to get better and to defend people, run the offense better," coach Byron Scott told the team's official website. "The dialogue has been very positive. I think they're encouraging each other.

"They know they need to rely on each other. If we're going to be successful as a team, there's not one guy that can do it by himself."

Scott is certainly alluding to the Lakers' recent history with Bryant, who has 17 games left in his storied career, though it's unclear how many he'll play after sitting out four of the last six.

This matchup, however, pits him against James one last time and that could be motivation enough for Bryant to suit up for the celebrity-laden home crowd. Bryant had 17 points in a 120-111 loss at Cleveland on Feb. 10, but James upstaged him with 29 points and 11 assists.

"Those are two guys we grew up (as) kids watching," Clarkson said. "Them always being compared to Michael Jordan and stuff like that."

That comparison will continue to follow James as he tries to win a third NBA title, which would still leave him three short of Jordan.

James, however, has the Cavaliers (45-18) atop the Eastern Conference and he's sixth in the league with 24.9 points per game. He's still well aware of the historical implications of one last matchup with Bryant.

"I've recorded it multiple times of what he's meant for my career, what he's meant for the Lakers organization, and the NBA," James said of Bryant. "It will be an opportunity to go again against one of the greats."

The four-time NBA MVP came four assists shy of a triple-double Wednesday, scoring 25 points with 11 rebounds in a 120-111 win at Sacramento to open this four-game road trip.

James is getting ample help from Kyrie Irving, who had 30 points against the Kings and is averaging 24.7 over the last six games after scoring 16.8 in the previous five.

The guard had a season-high 35 points on 15-of-24 shooting against the Lakers last month.

James had 36 points and Irving added 22 in a 109-102 win in Cleveland's most recent road meeting with the Lakers on Jan. 15, 2015.

While the Cavaliers are aiming for their first NBA title, the Lakers are trying to match their longest win streak of the season, set Dec. 30-Jan. 3.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Odds: Thursday, March 10 2016 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

LeBron James could sit out Thursday's nationally-televised game in Los Angeles because it's the second of a back-to-back for his Cleveland Cavaliers. Kobe Bryant could sit out because, well, he's like 90 and has a bum shoulder that essentially makes him questionable for the rest of the regular season. But would the two best players of this generation really deny themselves one last chance to square off on the basketball court? Let's hope not as LeBron's Cavs and Kobe's Lakers play for the final time this season. James has said that a need for rest wouldn't override facing Kobe. Coach Tyronn Lue has made it clear he will rest his key guys over the final month to prepare for the playoffs, but I'm pretty confident that if James says he's playing, he will play.


Hawks at Raptors (-3.5, 198.5)

Atlanta won a third straight Tuesday, 91-84 in Utah. Jeff Teague led the way with 24 points. The Hawks point guards outscored Utah's 31-9; Atlanta traded one of its point guards, Shelvin Mack, to Utah at the deadline. This concludes a five-game road trip for the Hawks. Toronto beat visiting Brooklyn 104-99 on Tuesday. The Raptors were a bit flat off their 12-game home winning streak being snapped Sunday and were down 16 at the half vs. the sad Nets. The Raptors gave Luis Scola the night off for rest. These clubs have met once this season, a 96-86 Toronto win in Atlanta on Dec. 2. The Raptors rallied from a 17-point hole in the third quarter. They scored 39 fourth-quarter points, a franchise record. Kyle Lowry had 22 of his 31 points in that quarter.

Key trends: The Hawks are 5-0 against the spread in their past five road games. The Raptors are 1-7 ATS in their past eight Thursday games. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings. The "over/under" is 6-1 in Toronto's past seven after a win.

Early lean: Raptors and over.

Bulls at Spurs (TBA)

First game of the TNT doubleheader and will have live betting at sportsbooks. Chicago beat Milwaukee on Monday but got bad news beforehand when Jimmy Butler's knee swelled up, forcing him to sit out. He had just returned from missing 11 games with issues in that knee, so I'd be shocked if he plays again anytime soon. He is ruled out here. Chicago also isn't sure if either guard Aaron Brooks or forward Bobby Portis will go with their injuries. I warned you the Spurs might rest some guys in the second of a back-to-back on Tuesday in Minnesota, and Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili all got the night off. San Antonio still won 116-91. It was also the second straight game Coach Gregg Popovich was away from the team, but he's also expected back here. Chicago won the first meeting 92-89 at home on Nov. 30. The Spurs scored only 19 fourth-quarter points, shooting 28.6 percent. Pau Gasol had 18 points and 13 points for the Bulls, while Kawhi Leonard had 25 points and eight rebounds.

Key trends: Chicago is 1-6 ATS in its past seven road games. San Antonio is 2-5 ATS in its past seven vs. the East. The under is 7-1 in the Spurs' past eight games.

Early lean: Spurs by at least 12.

Suns at Nuggets (-8, 213.5)

Phoenix hosted New York on Wednesday night with the Suns on a rare two-game winning streak. There was actually a chance that Brandon Knight was going to return from injury for that game. If not maybe this one. He will certainly be very limited when he does. Denver won a second straight Tuesday, 110-94 over those Knicks. Kenneth Faried had 24 points and 10 rebounds. Phoenix leads the season series 2-1 and is trying for its third straight season series win. But Denver won the most recent meeting, 104-96 in Phoenix.

Key trends: The Suns are 8-2 ATS in the past 10 meetings. The over is 17-5-1 in the Nuggets' past 23 at home.

Early lean: Nuggets and over.

Cavaliers at Lakers (TBA)

Your second TNT game. Cleveland was in Sacramento on Wednesday. Los Angeles won a second in a row Tuesday, 107-98 against Orlando. D'Angelo Russell scored 27 points and Jordan Clarkson added 24. Kobe sat out. Bryant has skipped four of the last five home games, and Coach Byron Scott calls him 50-50 for this game. The Lakers lost in Cleveland 120-111 on Feb. 10. Kyrie Irving scored a season-high 35 points and James added 29 for the Cavs, who didn't have an injured Kevin Love in the second half. Kobe had 17 points. The Cavs saluted Bryant during pregame introductions with a video presentation of some of his best moments.

Key trends: The Cavs have covered just two of their past 16 road games vs. teams with a losing home record. The under is 5-0 in the Lakers' past five at home. The over is 5-0 in the previous five meetings.

Early lean: Take the points if James is out.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Thursday's hot teams
-- Toronto won seven of its last nine games (1-5 last 6HF). Hawks won five of their last six games (8-6AU).
-- Spurs won nine of their last ten games (12-7 last 19HF).
-- Denver won three of its last four games (3-6HF).
-- Cleveland won four of its last five games (5-3 last 8AF). Lakers won three of last four home games (7-4 last 11HU).

Cold teams
-- Chicago lost its last four road games (1-6 last 7AU).
-- Phoenix lost seven of its last ten games (2-11 last 13AU).

Series records
-- Raptors won five of last six games with Atlanta.
-- Bulls won three of last five games with San Antonio.
-- Suns won eight of their last ten games with Denver.
-- Lakers lost four of last five games with Cleveland.

Totals
-- Six of last eight Toronto games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Chicago games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last ten Phoenix games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Laker games stayed under the total.

Back/backs
-- Suns are 4-7 vs spread last 11 times they played night before.
-- Cleveland covered five of last seven if it played night before.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'On the hardwood'

Home Cookin'

The real estate agents' mantra location, location, location fits San Antonio to a T. The Spurs tough nuts to crack on home court are undefeated this season at 30-0 outscoring visitors by 15.9 points/game with a 20-10 record against the betting line. Looking further back the Spurs have won an amazing 39 consecutive regular season games in front of the friendly crowd at AT&T Center posting a 28-11 record at the betting window.

Bulls not a peg to hang your hat on when running the hardwood in enemy territory are 11-19 SU/ATS away from the United Center and head into San Antonio ridding a 1-9 (2-8 ATS) skid the past ten on the road defeated by an average 11.7 points/game. Adding to the road woes for Chicago, the Bulls could be without Aaron Brooks (knee), Bobby Portis (eye), Jimmy Butler (knee) all questionable for Thursday game.

Chicago hit with the injury bug, San Antonio the best in the league at keeping the ball out of their own basket behind a defensive efficiency rating of 95.5 (pts per 100 opponent possessions) along with a league second best offensive efficiency rating (108.9) not difficult making a case for Spurs on their own court.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wednesday's Pac-12 Tips
By Brian Edwards

**Southern California vs. UCLA**

-- The Westgate SuperBook opened USC (20-11 straight up, 17-13-1 against the spread) as a two-point favorite early Tuesday afternoon, only to move the game to a pick ‘em 21 minutes later. As of early this morning, however, most spots had the Trojans favored by 2.5 or three points. The total was in the 156-157 range.

-- UCLA (15-16 SU, 11-20 ATS) will miss the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2012 if it doesn’t win this week’s Pac-12 Tournament at MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. Steve Alford’s third UCLA squad has lost four in a row both SU and ATS and, going back further, it is 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS in its last nine games.

-- UCLA finished 10th in the Pac-12 standings with an abysmal 6-12 record in league play. The Bruins dropped back-to-back home games this past Thursday and Saturday. Oregon went into Pauley Pavilion and captured a 76-68 win as a two-point road favorite. Two days later, Oregon State won an 86-82 decision as a 6.5-point road underdog. Isaac Hamilton had 21 points, six rebounds, four assists and two steals in the loss to the Beavers, but he was 7-of-23 from the field and just 3-of-13 from downtown. Bryce Alford finished with 18 points and five assists without a turnover.

-- UCLA is No. 96 in the RPI Rankings, going 4-10 against the Top 100 and 8-14 versus the Top 100. The Bruins have home wins over Kentucky, Arizona and Colorado, in addition to road scalps of Oregon State, Gonzaga and Arizona State.

-- Hamilton averages a team-high 17.1 points per game, while Alford scores at a 16.3 PPG clip and owns a 164/61 assists-to-turnovers ratio.

-- USC has slumped mightily down the stretch, losing six of its last eight games both SU and ATS. The Trojans have home wins over Colorado and Oregon State during this span, but they closed the regular season with a 76-66 home loss to Oregon as 2.5-point home underdogs. Andy Enfield’s teams went 4-of-19 from 3-point range (21.1%) against the Ducks. Katin Reinhardt and Nikola Jovanovic had 12 points apiece in the losing effort.

-- USC owns a 9-5 spread record in 14 games as a single-digit favorite this year.

-- USC is No. 42 in the RPI, posting a 5-7 record against the Top 50 and an 11-11 mark versus the Top 100. The Trojans have home wins over Yale, Arizona, CU, Oregon State, Monmouth, Arizona State, Washington and UCLA, in addition to road wins over UCLA and UC Santa Barbara. They also beat Wichita State on a neutral court. USC doesn’t have any blemished on its record in terms of losing to teams outside of the RPI Top 100.

-- When these teams met at Pauley Pavilion on Jan. 13, Southern Cal cruised to a 48-30 halftime advantage. UCLA would never get within single digits the rest of the way in an 89-75 loss as a 2.5-point home favorite. Jordan McLaughlin led the winners with 23 points and four assists without a turnover. McLaughlin, the sophomore guard, hit 5-of-8 from beyond the arc. Chimezie Metu added 21 points and eight rebounds, while Reinhardt finished with 14 points and five boards, draining all three of attempts from long distance. Tony Parker had a team-best 27 points and 12 rebounds for UCLA, while Hamilton tallied 10 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists.

-- In the rematch on Feb. 4 at the Galen Center, USC smashed UCLA again by an 80-61 count as a five-point home ‘chalk.’ The 141 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 161.5-point total. Julian Jacobs paced the Trojans with 17 points, six rebounds and five assists. Elijah Stewart had 16 points and six boards, while Reinhardt and Bennie Boatwright finished with 13 and 12 points, respectively. Aaron Holiday had a team-best 15 points for the Bruins.

-- The ‘over’ is 18-13 overall for the Bruins.

-- The ‘over’ is 16-14-1 overall for USC, 3-1 in its last four outings.

-- The UCLA-USC winner will face second-seeded Utah at 9:00 p.m. Eastern on Thursday night.

-- Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on the Pac-12 Network.

**Arizona State vs. Oregon State**

-- This game will tip 30-35 minutes after the conclusion of USC-UCLA on the Pac-12 Network. The Westgate opened the Beavers as three-point favorites. The number remained at three early this morning, while most offshores had the total at 142 points.

-- Oregon State (18-11 SU, 15-13 ATS) is on the proverbial bubble, currently listed by ESPN.com’s Joe Lunardi as a part of his “First Four Out” due to Monmouth and Saint Mary’s losing in their respective conference tournaments. Lunardi had the Beavers in his “Last Four In” 36 hours ago. In other words, they have to beat ASU and depending on how other bubble teams fare, probably will need another win over third-seeded California on Thursday in order to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday.

-- Oregon State has a solid RPI of 29 thanks to three Top-15 wins over Oregon, California and Utah. The Beavers are 5-7 against the Top 50 and 11-11 versus the Top 100. They haven’t lost to any opponents outside of the RPI Top 100. In non-conference play, OSU beat Iona at home, won at UC Santa Barbara and topped Tulsa (RPI: 55) on a neutral court. The win over the Golden Hurricane could prove critical because Tulsa is also vying for an NCAA berth and joins the Beavers as a part of Lunardi’s “First Four Out.”

-- Wayne Tinkle’s team is led by Gary Payton II, who averages team-highs in scoring (15.9 PPG), assists (5.3 APG), rebounding (7.6 RPG) and steals (2.4 SPG).

-- Oregon State has won three of its last four games, including the aforementioned 86-82 win at UCLA this past Saturday. Stephen Thompson Jr., whose father was a star player at Syracuse in the late 1980s, led the way with 23 points, five rebounds, four steals and two assists. Thompson, a true freshman and Tinkle’s prize recruit to date, hit 4-of-6 launches from 3-point range. Payton finished with 16 points, five boards and six assists compared to only one turnover.

-- Oregon State will be without freshman forward Tres Tinkle tonight. Tinkle is nursing a foot injury but hopes to return soon. The coach’s son is a true freshman who is second on the team in scoring (13.1 PPG), rebounding (5.4 RPG) and steals (1.2 SPG).

-- Arizona State (15-16 SU, 14-15 ATS) is No. 91 in the RPI, producing a 3-9 record against the Top 50 and an 8-14 mark versus the Top 100. The Sun Devils have home wins over Texas A&M, Oregon State, USC, Belmont, UC Santa Barbara, Stanford and Stephen F. Austin. They won at Creighton, at UNLV and beat N.C. State on a neutral court.

-- Bobby Hurley’s team has lost five of its last six games while going 2-4 ATS. ASU dropped a 68-65 decision to Cal in its regular-season finale, but it covered the number as a 5.5-point home underdog. Eric Jacobsen scored 20 points and pulled down six rebounds in defeat. Gerry Blakes added 14 points, six boards, two steals and six assists without a turnover. Tra Holder finished with 10 points, six assists and four rebounds.

-- ASU has been an underdog 16 times, compiling a 6-9-1 spread record with four outright victories.

-- Holder paces ASU in scoring (14.3 PPG), assists (3.5 APG) and steals (1.0 SPG).

-- The ‘over’ is 17-12 overall for the Sun Devils, but they have seen the ‘under’ cash in six of their last eight contests.

-- The ‘over’ is 18-10 overall for the Beavers, 5-1 in their last six outings.

-- The ‘over’ is 7-2 in the last nine head-to-head meetings between these Pac-12 rivals. They met just once this season with ASU capturing an 86-68 win as five-point home favorite on Jan. 28. The 154 combined points soared ‘over’ the 140.5-point total. Obinna Oleka scored 17 points for the Sun Devils, while Blakes added 16. Payton had a horrible game, making only 1-of-7 shots and scoring just two points. Thompson had a team-best 14 points for the Beavers.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Most books have Clemson installed as a one-point favorite vs. Georgia Tech for tonight’s 7:00 p.m. Eastern tip at Verizon Center in Washington, D.C. ESPN2 will have the broadcast. The total is 134 points. The Yellow Jackets have won five of their last six games, covering the spread in four straight as underdogs. The ‘under’ is 8-3 in Georgia Tech’s last 11 games.

-- Clemson lost a 75-73 decision at Georgia Tech on Feb. 23, but the Tigers took the cash as 2.5-point road underdogs. They knocked off the Yellow Jackets 66-52 as five-home favorites in Greenville on Feb. 13. The ‘under’ has hit in six of Clemson’s last nine games.

-- Texas Tech is an eight-point favorite vs. TCU tonight in the Big 12 Tournament. Tip-off is slated for 9:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU. The Red Raiders have won six of their last eight games both SU and ATS, including an 80-71 win over Kansas St. as five-point home ‘chalk’ in this past Saturday’s regular-season finale. The ‘over’ is 6-2 in Texas Tech’s last eight games. Tubby Smith’s team swept the season series from the Horned Frogs, winning 76-69 in Ft. Worth and 83-79 in Lubbock. TCU took the cash as an 11.5-point road underdog in the recent meeting at Texas Tech.

-- Tennessee is a 3.5-point favorite vs. Auburn in tonight’s SEC Tournament elimination game in Nashville. The SEC Network will have the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern. The total is 145.5 points. UT will be without leading scorer Kevin Punter, who is out with a stress fracture in his foot. Punter (22.2 PPG) was second in the SEC in scoring and 12th in the nation. Robert Hubbs III (10.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG) is also ‘questionable’ for the Vols with a knee injury that’s kept him out of two of the last three games. Hubbs played six minutes in a blowout loss to Ole Miss in the regular-season finale.

-- The ‘under’ is 7-1-1 in Tennessee’s last nine games. The Vols have lost four in a row both SU and ATS.

-- Nebraska is a 14.5-point favorite vs. Rutgers tonight at the Big Ten Tournament. These teams will collide at 7:00 p.m. Eastern on the Big Ten Network. The Cornhuskers have lost five in a row while going 1-4 ATS. They are 2-1 ATS this year in three games as double-digit favorites, including an 87-63 win over Rutgers as 19-point home ‘chalk.’ Tim Miles’s team also dealt out woodshed treatment to the Scarlet Knights at The RAC on Jan. 9, cruising to a 90-56 triumph as a 6.5-point road fave.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Basketball Betting 3-Point Play: Three Interesting March 10 Opening Lines
by Alan Matthews

The fans at both Ohio State and Michigan can go ahead and turn their focus totally to spring football if the Buckeyes and Wolverines lose in their Big Ten Tournament openers on Thursday. Both schools are very much on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Michigan also missed the Big Dance last year, while OSU hasn't missed it since 2008.

Northwestern vs. Michigan (-2)

Game tips at noon ET on the Big Ten Network from Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. NU is the No. 9 seed and Michigan the No. 8. The winner faces regular-season champion Indiana on Friday. I'll flat-out admit that I'm rooting for Northwestern (20-11) to win this tournament, although I highly doubt that happens. That remains the only current Power 5 school to never make the NCAA Tournament, although Coach Chris Collins appears to have the Cats headed in that direction sooner or later as the 20 wins are a school record for a regular season. Maybe NU will be dangerous in this event as its closed the season on a three-game winning streak, all by double digits, albeit against lightweights Rutgers, Penn State and Nebraska. Still, it's the first time Northwestern has won three straight Big Ten games by 10 or more points since 1954.


Michigan (20-11) is listed among ESPN's "Next Four Out", so it probably needs not just a win here but then an upset of the Hoosiers to get an at-large bid. The Wolverines closed the regular season losing four of their final five games. Their season went down the tubes when star Caris LeVert was essentially lost for the season in a Dec. 30 game. UM's lone win in its final five was 72-63 at home against Northwestern. A 3-pointer by Aubrey Dawkins put Michigan ahead for good at 57-54 with a bit over four minutes to play. Northwestern had led by as many as 13 points.

Key trends: The Wildcats are 2-5 against the spread in their past seven vs. teams with a winning record. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings.

I'm leaning: Michigan has won its past nine opening tournament games. I think that continues and it covers.

Arkansas vs. Florida (-2.5)

SEC Tournament game from Nashville at 1 p.m. ET on the SEC Network. The Razorbacks are No. 9 seeds and Gators are No. 8, with the winner facing No. 1 seed Texas A&M. Arkansas (16-15) had a four-game winning streak end in a 76-61 home defeat to South Carolina on Saturday. The team's best player is junior forward Moses Kingsley, who is likely the SEC's most improved player. He was named second-team All-SEC and landed on the league's All-Defensive Team. Last year he played just 10.9 minutes a game and averaged 3.6 points, 2.5 rebounds and 1.1 blocks. This season: 16.1 points, 9.2 rebounds and 2.4 blocks. His 15 double-doubles are second in the conference. Kingsley is the lone player in the conference to rank in the top five in rebounds, field goal percentage (.556) and blocked shots.

I'm frankly tired of writing about Florida (18-13), so I hope the Gators lose and they can just go to the NIT. Right now they are listed among the "Next Four Out." I don't even think they deserve that designation with a single win over a ranked team this season and really no great nonconference wins (Saint Joseph's being the best). We wouldn't even be talking about UF on the bubble had it not ended a four-game losing streak in the regular-season finale at Missouri, but Mizzou is awful. The Gators beat visiting Arkansas 87-83 on Feb. 3. UF star Dorian Finney-Smith had 22 points and nine rebounds. UF has won nine of the past 10 in this series.

Key trends: Arkansas is 2-5 ATS in its past seven after a loss. UF is 2-8 ATS in its past 10 games. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the past five.

I'm leaning: Florida (unfortunately).

Penn State vs. Ohio State (-5.5)

Game tips at 6:30 p.m. ET from Indianapolis on ESPN2. The Nittany Lions are No. 10 seeds and Buckeyes No. 7, with the winner drawing No. 2 Michigan State on Friday. Penn State (16-15) will miss the NCAA Tournament for the fifth straight season but maybe gets a bid to the CIT or something. PSU closed the regular season with an 86-79 double-overtime win over Illinois. Penn State had a bye in the first round of this tournament for the first time in program history. With seven Big Ten wins, the Nittany Lions have the most league victories in five seasons under Coach Patrick Chambers. Penn State is 11-18 in the Big Ten tourney since it began in 1998. The Lions went 2-1 last season, advancing to the quarterfinals as the No. 13 seed.

Ohio State (19-12) is also listed among the "Next Four Out" for the NCAA Tournament. It definitely would need to win here and then upset the Spartans, who have beat OSU handily twice over the past two weeks or so. But the Buckeyes have played pretty well since early February otherwise. They routed visiting Penn State 66-46 on Jan. 25. It should be noted that the Buckeyes had Jae'Sean Tate then (15 points), but he's out for the season. PSU was without one of its better players, freshman guard Josh Reaves. He's healthy now.

Key trends: PSU is 1-5 ATS in its past six after a win. OSU is 7-1-1 ATS in its past nine after a loss. The Buckeyes are 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings.

I'm leaning: Ohio State.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Notes for Thursday's games..........

Big 14 tournament (Indianapolis)
Michigan lost four of last five games as they limp off bubble; only win was 72-63 over Northwestern Feb 24, after Wildcats jumped to a 17-4 lead. Wolverines won their first Big 14 tourney game the last nine years; they miss injured star LeVert now, though. Northwestern is 3-7 in first tourney game last decade; they're 1-8 in last nine games with Michigan, beating Wolverines at home in OT LY. Wildcats won last three games vs stiffs of the league, allowing 58 ppg.

ACC tournament (Washington DC)
Not often a team allows 1.30 ppp and wins; Duke did yesterday; they shot 12-27 on arc, trailed 53-50 at half against tired NC State team that played day before. Four Dukies played 32:00+. Notre Dame won ACC tourney LY, upsetting Duke in semis; they're 4-1 vs Duke in ACC tilts, winning 95-91 at Cameron, scoring 1.36 ppp. Duke split last six games overall. Irish are 6-1 in their first tournament game last seven years.

Big East tourney (NYC)
Providence swept Butler this year, 81-73 in Indy (made 12-26 on arc), 71-68 at home; they're 4-2 in Big East tournament last two years, with title in '14, 5-1 vs Bulldogs in Big East play. Butler is 2-3 in this event; last two years they lost first game by 1-6ot. Friars won last three games, scoring 82.3 ppg. Butler also won three in row, scoring 90 ppg; they're an older team than Providence, with three senior starters.

Road team won both Creighton-Seton Hall games this year; Pirates won rematch 75-65, three weeks after Bluejays won 82-67 in Jersey. Jays are 8-1 in first conference tourney game last nine years; they lost four of last five games overall, with win vs St John's. Seton Hall is 5-2 in first game of last seven Big East tourneys; they're 9-2 in last 11 games, with both losses to Butler. Teams split six games since becoming Big East rivals.

Big 12 tournament (Kansas City)
Shaka Smart was 15-4 in conference tourneys in six years at VCU; this ain't the A-14 or CAA. Texas won first tourney game 10 years in a row; they split pair with Baylor this year, winning 67-59 in Waco, losing at home 78-64 (was 40-22 at half). Longhorns won three of last four games overall; Baylor lost three of four since win in Austin. Bears are 4-2 last two Big X tourneys; they've lost in finals twice in last four years.

Kansas State damn near blew 40-23 halftime lead yesterday, in its 75-71 win; four Wildcats played 35:00+. K-State lost six of last nine overall; they lost 77-59/72-63 to Kansas this year. Jayhawks are 13-3 in last six Big X tourneys, since losing in first round back in '09; they are 12-1 in first tourney game- three of last five wins in first game were by 7 or less points. Kansas won its last 11 games; four of its last five wins were by nine or less points.

TCU snapped 7-game skid last nite, with first road win since Dec 23, at Bradley; Horned Frogs got swept by West Virginia this season, 95-87 at home, 73-42 in Morgantown. Since 2003, TCU is 0-5 in second tourney game- they lost 64-59 to Kansas LY. WVU won Big East tourney in '10, is 0-5 in conference tourneys since then, going 0-3 in this event- they are 4-0 in last four games overall, winning last game at Baylor by 11.

Iowa State won last two Big X tourneys, after going 1-8 in its previous eight tourneys; Cyclones lost 87-83 at Oklahoma Jan 2, then won 82-77 at home 16 days later- both teams scored 1.11+ ppp in both games. ISU is #4 in country in experience but is just 5-6 in its last 11 games, losing last four road games. Oklahoma is just 4-10 in Big X tourney the last 10 years- last time they won this tournament was in 2003- they lost first tournament game five of last seven years.

SEC tournament (Nashville)
Ole Miss is 8-4 in its last 12 games; they've won five of last six games vs Alabama, beating Crimson Tide 74-66 at home Jan 7, outscoring Tide on line 24-13 after trailing by 8 at half. Rebels won first SEC tourney game four of last five years. Alabama lost four of last five games after 5-game hot streak raised hopes in early February. Tide lost by 12-8 points in its first SEC tourney game last two years; this is Johnson's first tourney.

Howland was 10-8 in Pac-12 tourneys at UCLA, winning two of them; Miss State won four of last six games after starting 3-9 in its SEC games. Georgia won its last three games to finish 10-8 in SEC; they won 66-57 in Starkville Feb 13, surviving 20 turnovers (-11), holding State to 30.9% from floor. Dawgs won first tourney game seven of last nine years; they lost five of last seven road games, but won last one, at South Carolina.

Pac-12 tournament (MGM, Las Vegas)
Washington lost six of last nine games after starting 7-3 in Pac-12; they pounded Stanford yesterday; it was 50-22 at half, so mostly stress-free day. Huskies are 3-6 in last nine games, losing 86-73 in Eugene 11 days ago; Ducks shot 615 inside arc, were +14 on boards- they've won six of last eight games vs U-Dub. Oregon is 6-2 in Pac-12 tourney last three years; they won first tourney game in last five Pac-12 tournaments.

Colorado is 11-4 in conference tourneys the last five years; they waxed Wazzu yesterday, stress-free day. Buffs beat Arizona 75-72 at home on Feb 24, ending 6-game skid vs Wildcats. Arizona won Pac-12 tourney LY, first time in over a decade; they've won first tourney game last five years, all by 8+ points. Wildcats won seven of last nine games overall, losing last two on road. Colorado won three of last four games overall.

Mountain West tournament (Las Vegas)
UNLV had three kids play 54:00+ yesterday in 108-102 triple OT win over Air Force; they had a walk-on play 19:00, when he had played only 17:00 all year before that. Rebels got swept by experienced Fresno team, 69-66 at home Dec 30, 111-104 in double OT Feb 6. UNLV won its last five home games, despite having decimated roster. Frenso is #19 team in country in experience; they've won last six games- they're only 1-6 in Mountain West tournament the last six years.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations

CBB | UTAH ST at SAN DIEGO ST
Play On - Neutral court teams as an underdog (UTAH ST) revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team
115-62 since 1997. ( 65.0% | 46.8 units )
4-1 this year. ( 80.0% | 2.9 units )

CBB | BUTLER at PROVIDENCE
Play On - Favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (BUTLER) after scoring 85 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 165 points or more
110-23 since 1997. ( 82.7% | 52.6 units )
7-6 this year. ( 53.8% | -6.5 units )

CBB | BUTLER at PROVIDENCE
Play Under - Neutral court teams where the first half total is 65.5 to 70.5 in a game involving two average defensive teams (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 85 points or more
67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Thursday
By Mike Dempsey

Sports Illustrated came out with their 100 Greatest Moments in Sports History this week, with the Miracle on Ice ranked at #1. No surprise there.

Three of the greatest moments were from horse racing. At #99 was the 1978 Belmont Stakes (G1), a battle between rivals Affirmed and Alydar. Affirmed won the Triple Crown that year, winning the final jewel by a head over his arch rival.

At #35 on the list was American Pharoah’s win in the Belmont Stakes, which gave the Bob Baffert trainee the Triple Crown, the first in nearly four decades.

The highest ranking among horse racing moments went to Secretariat, who won the 1973 Belmont Stakes by 31 lengths, giving him the Triple Crown. That moment came in at #13.

I think SI got it about right. If there was one more I would have liked to see included, it would be Zenyatta’s victory over the boys in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).


Here is today’s opener from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

GP Race 1 Clm $6,250 (12:35 ET)
#1 Better Man 10-1
#3 Peter Castleboy 2-1
#2 Thunder Run 5-2
#7 Colorado Daydream 7-2

Analysis: Better Man was beaten double digit lengths at bid odds in his last two starts behind a sharp Air Squadron and catches a weaker spot here. he draws the rail and looks quick enough he should be part of the pace against this slow group. He has a habit of landing for minor shares but worth a stab here if he goes off near his 10-1 morning line.

Peter Castleboy was beaten three lengths last out in a fifth place finish for this tag. The gelding got caught in tight and lacked running room in the stretch. Two back he was beaten just a head in a tough beat. A clean trip makes him the one to beat but his price will be on the short side.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 5-1 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,2,3,7
TRI: 1,3 / 1,2,3,7 / 1,2,3,4,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 9 OClm $62,500N2X (4:35 ET)
#6 West Coast Chick 5-1
#5 Lucky Switch 7-2
#1 Sweet Success 4-1
#3 Pursuing Fate 3-1

Analysis: West Coast Chick cuts back to a sprint here after dueling for the early lead and weakening to finish third last out going a mile at this level off a two-month break. Both of her wins have come at six furlongs including her maiden breaker over the main track here. The Zito barn is having a slow meeting but this gal should appreciate the cut back in distance and should be a fair price here.

Lucky Switch is coming off a fifth last out in the Sunshine Millions Distaff. The runner up and seventh place finisher came out of that race to win next out. She made a good late rally to get up and beat Alw-1 optional claimers two back going six furlongs at Gulfstream Park West. The Nicks trainee fits well at this level and with just four starts under her belt may still have some upside.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 5,6 / 1,3,5,6
TRI: 5,6 / 1,3,5,6 / 1,2,3,5,6

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Gulfstream Park
R1: #1 Better Man 10-1
R2: #7 Twinkling Time 8-1
R4: #3 Hashtag Win 8-1
R5: #9 Antebellum 12-1
R6: #6 Skirts On Fire 8-1
R7: #5 Princess Fiona 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Thursday 3/10 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 2,3,4/3,5,7/3,4,8/4,6/4,6,9 = $32.40

EARLY PICK 4: 4,6/4,6,9/2,6/3,5,8 = $36

LATE PICK 4: 3,5,8/1,7,8/3,4/1,5,7,9 = $72

MEET STATS: 288 - 898 / $1494.90 BEST BETS: 46 - 83 / $162.90

SPOT PLAYS: 20 - 84 / $208.00

Best Bet: BUCKSHOT AUSTIN (6th)

Spot Play: JETSTER (1st)


Race 1

(2) JETSTER goes for Brealey off the claim here; angle play in the opener. (4) EINHORN was chasing a runaway winner last time and finished an OK third. His improvement in his last two starts make him a contender here. (3) GOODMORNINGMISTER couldn't close into an accelerating late pace last week. He should be much closer here.

Race 2

(3) SANDY DE VIE's closing kick was thwarted by a 59-flat middle 1/2 last week. She can get there vs. this group if she starts her move earlier. (5) CAMPS BAY was a strong 2nd to a big favorite last time, but his 1 for 22 record is a concern. (7) MADDYS CREDIT closed quickly last time but could do no better than third. She has some upside and could take this with the right trip.

Race 3

(3) GENTLEMAN JIM, a $60K Harrisburg purchase, is a half to Speak To Me, who earned $500K by the end of her 3-year-old season last year. If this Muscle Hill colt stays flat here, he should contend. (4) ROADMAPPER raced well first up in his career debut last week and looms a threat. (8) MAJESTIC MISTRESS is a half to two winners from two that the dam has produced thus far, and this filly qualified well with trotting hopples on March 3rd; upset chance.

Race 4

(4) REGAL FAME was claimed by Moreau after failing as a heavy favorite when racing off a three-week break in action last time. He should be tough racing out of the top barn back on a 7-day rotation. (6) PERFECT VISTA goes for Auciello here off the claim and he is having a strong meet so far; using. (2) SOS MACH EXTREME produced his fastest final 1/4 in some time last week and is another to consider for early Pick 4 wagers.

Race 5

(9) A ROD HALL was going to be a winner last time but broke deep in the stretch, which cost him that victory. He re-qualified well and looks as good as any in this wide-open field. (6) FASHION STAR made two moves to the front last week but couldn't withstand third-quarter pressure. He has raced well since shipping here and should contend again tonight. (4) WILLYORWONTHE recaptured winning form last week and has beaten better in the past; beware.

Race 6

(2) BUCKSHOT KILLEAN was a sharp first-over winner racing in a new barn last time and can repeat here. (6) BOLERO TRISCO closed strongly for 2nd behind the choice despite having broken equipment; looks like the main danger. (5) JAC SPADE looks best of the rest and is likely to take a smaller share again.

Race 7

(3) LOVE U FOREVER had a sneaky-good try here last week in a claimer and is likely to show more early speed here as she has done in the past; slight nod. (8) MUSCLE TIME made a big first-over move in the third quarter last week, but couldn't sustain that bid. He will likely be looking for a helmet to follow here. (5) APRIL BREEZE ON was an easy winner in good time in this class on Jan. 21. If she has her issues straightened out, she will be a player here.

Race 8

(1) CHOOSE MY JET showed dramatic improvement while racing in a new barn last week and could offer a decent price here; call to repeat. (8) BLUEBERRY WILL has been an impressive winner in two straight to start the year and is the one to beat. (7) MATTJESTIC TEMPO fits well here if she has her breaking issues straightened out; using.

Race 9

(3) MACH POWER was beaten by one last Thursday that repeated Monday night. He should get a more aggressive steer early here and resume his winning ways. (4) CANADIAN WRITER was claimed when setting a lifetime best mark last week and can threaten in his current sharp form. (6) WHATASHOWINONTARIO can be expected to show improvement in his second start of the year.

Race 10

(7) BETTER TO BELIEVE was a sharp winner over a slow track in London last time and now ships in for a Hall of Fame trainer. Don't be shocked if he can go much faster here. (9) NEW STANDARD continues to close rapidly but too late. He will likely win the first time he is in a contending position turning for home. (1) JENS CREDIT used a 27 3/5 backside brush to open up a big lead last time but couldn't hold the advantage to the wire. She could beat these with an easier trip. (5) GANACUS SEELSTER has improved his late speed and should get a piece of this. (2) HUGHGETTHECREDIT can lay closer early this time while leaving from a better post and crash the exotics at a huge price.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Thursday 3/10 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 61 - 241 / $447.00

BEST BETS: 6 - 19 / $24.70

Best Bet: NORTHERN DALI (6th)

Spot Play: ZIGGY SKY (9th)


Race 1

(1) UPFRONTWHOSURLADY is on a roll having scored three straight victories. Now she moves to the fence and you have to believe this pacing mare will be very tough to deny. (2) M A REFLING should benefit dramatically with the move to the 2-hole. (6) DEREK DELIGHT was sent right to the front but could not hold off Summer Snow last week.

Race 2

(1) JUST SAYIN showed good pace from the pocket and saved the show spot in her last try; retains the rail for new connections and it's nice to see MacDonald with the return assignment. (3) MY IDEAL HANOVER came up the cones to grab the place spot at 31-1 recently. (5) FIRSTCLASSFLIGHT needs a much better trip than in her latest. She came up empty when she was first over approaching the 3/4 pole most recently.

Race 3

Consistent pacer (4) WAYNE THE LEFTY is 3 for 5 this year, scoring from the pocket last out. You can't knock that solid record, so the three-peat is well within the realm. (7) STRAIGHTTALKXPRESS was late on the scene to nail down the show spot in his last trip. (2) SALEVSTER STALLION gets post relief and that might help his cause.

Race 4

(2) AUTOMATIC SLIMS was sent by Bartlett down the road but was nailed by Touch the Rock and had to settle for second money. This 10-year-old stays in the 2-hole and Bartlett keeps the faith; the pick. (3) RING WARRIOR put in a game effort from the pocket and missed the victory by only 3/4 of a length; threat. (5) SPORTING THE LOOK has wheeled off three straight victories; post hurts.

Race 5

Let's give (6) MONTREAL PHIL a shot to put it all together tonight. The 12-year-old gelding had dull cover and did not fire at all last out. Hopefully Dube will send this pacer on the engine, and with some luck, put this guy right back into the winner's circle. (4) ONTHECLOCK HANOVER flashed speed and was sitting in the pocket but had nothing in the final stretch drive; could turn things around. (5) SEA STAR was 3rd over at the half but only grabbed fourth money; could have a say.

Race 6

(4) NORTHERN DALI raced quite well in her first attempt at the Hilltop. She has a proven record at her Chicago base and has every right to move forward with Brennan at the helm. (8) SENTIMENTAL LADY just got up for win honors via the pocket route; post hurts but she could contend with these. (2) MACHO CHICK was second best in her last two tries and can't be counted out.

Race 7

(8) INTOVIEW made two nice moves on February 26th and March 1st, respectively. She catches a weak group tonight and just needs to grab good position early to mow them down late for all the glory; we shall see. (1) BORN TO DREAM drops a notch in class and moves to the pole position; could have a say in the outcome. (7) CAMS MACHARENA rallied strongly to miss the score by a half-length.

Race 8

(2) KIDDIE MACCARDLE made a first over bid at the 3/4 marker but was overmatched by a strong Hazmatt last out; goes back to the 2-hole and has every chance of getting the job done with a favorable trip. (4) WANNA ROCK N ROLL was on the rim approaching the 3/4 pole and grinded out a victory in her most recent outing. (5) LIGHTNING PAIGE was used up when she had to work hard to grab the lead at the 1/4 pole last time around; not out of this.

Race 9

(7) ZIGGY SKY was very sharp from the pocket and lost glory by a head. This gelding appears to be heading in the right direction and is a hot commodity at the claim box. At his best, he can make his return to the winner's circle for team Dube/Allard. (1) INTHENAMEOFJAMES had live cover and came down the center of the track to score by a length last out. (6) MAGIC MANNY has proven speed and will need to relax his early zip to contend; maybe.

Race 10

(7) FITZS Z TAM showed good pace in his last try and seems to be more suited to racing outside. With a fine-timed drive, this 9-year-old can make his return to the cameraman for pictures. (3) TYE SEELSTER got the job done when Bartlett sent this 7-year-old down the road. If you throw out (4) SCREAMAN SEAMAN A's last trip to the post, his two place finishes on February 12th & 26th, respectively, makes this guy a contender with these.

Race 11

This might be a perfect spot for pacing mare (1) JOKES JET to get back on the winning track. She closed fastest of them all on February 19th to land the show spot. With a covered up trip, she could best these with MacDonald at the controls. (2) QUICK AINT FAIR put in three solid performances in a row, the last one was a strong score from the pocket; big player. (8) LYONS SHADOW was dull from the 8-hole last out, so maybe Bartlett will try to get this gal close with the early leaders; maybe.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Thursday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (1st) Greyjoy, 5-1
(2nd) Caspian Crown, 3-1

Charles Town (5th) Jozi's Dancer, 3-1
(7th) Pa's Little Sister, 9-2


Delta Downs (5th) Lord Alex, 3-1
(7th) He's a Lady Tamer, 7-2

Fair Grounds (2nd) Sun and Sand, 6-1
(9th) Anusara, 7-2


Golden Gate Fields (3rd) Envahir, 4-1
(5th) Medicine Gal, 3-1


Gulfstream Park (8th) Dean's Ticket, 7-2
(10th) Whisper Onthe Wind, 4-1


Oaklawn Park (4th) Gavar, 4-1
(7th) Kiss, 3-1

Penn National (6th) Aisle Ring, 8-1
(8th) Pindar, 3-1

Santa Anita (1st) Starlite Style, 3-1
(7th) Illuminant, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

PGA Tour Picks: Valspar Championship Odds and Betting Predictions
by Alan Matthews

I'm not sure what was more newsy last week on the PGA Tour: that Adam Scott won his second straight event or that WGC-Cadillac Championship "host" Donald Trump didn't say upstage the whole tournament at his own resort.

The Aussie Scott found himself down by as many as six shots at Trump Doral's Blue Monster on a windy Sunday but beat out Bubba Watson by a shot for his 13th career PGA Tour win -- and Scott made that rally despite two final-round double-bogeys. Scott finished with a 69 Sunday, with six birdies in his final 13 holes, to finish 12-under 276 for the week and is now No. 1 in the FedEx Cup standings and No. 6 in the world rankings.


Scott is the first player to win back-to-back weeks in Florida since Tiger Woods in 2001 and the first player anywhere with consecutive wins since Billy Horschel took the final two FedEx Cup playoff events in 2014. Scott is also the first two-time winner this season. He also won two titles in 2004 and 2013.

Rory McIlroy was the 54-hole leader and had a four-shot lead at one point early in his final round. But he made just one birdie on Sunday, shot a 2-over 74 and finished tied for third. A few weeks ago at the Northern Trust Open, McIlroy also imploded with a final-round lead.

You might want to bet on Watson to win the Masters for a third time. Four years ago, Watson finished second at this tournament and won the Masters a month later. Two years ago, he did the same thing. But by far my favorite statistic from last week belonged to Steven Bowditch. There was no cut at the WGC-Cadillac so Bowditch as able to shoot all four rounds in the 80s. No Tour player had done that in 23 years.

I wasn't a big fan of Scott's last week after he won the week before -- I didn't even pick him as top Aussie. I just missed on my third winner of the season as I went with Watson at +1000. Scott nearly had disaster on his 72nd hole that would have forced a playoff with Watson, who shot a final-round 68. I hit on Watson at +125 for a Top 10 as well as McIlroy at -110. Just missed on Dustin Johnson, but got him head-to-head at -130 over Jason Day (even). Also got McIlroy (-125) over Jordan Spieth (-105), Rickie Fowler (-150) over Justin Rose (+115), and Brooks Koepka (-130) over Patrick Reed (even). My top result overall was Danny Willett at +450 as top Englishman. He finished T3 with McIlroy. Also hit Louis Oosthuizen at +165 as top South African. So overall a pretty good week.

The Tour now shifts coasts in the Sunshine State and heads up to the Tampa/St. Petersburg area for the Valspar Championship and the field is weaker. Spieth is back to defend his title at Innisbrook Resort's Copperhead Course. Spieth rallied from three shots back with six holes to play on Sunday last year and then won with a 30-foot birdie putt on the third extra hole. Patrick Reed and Sean O'Hair also were in the playoff. The trio finished at 10-under 274. Spieth is one of seven players ranked in the world's Top 20 playing this week. Scott, McIlroy and Watson aren't.

Golf Odds: Valspar Championship Favorites

Spieth is a heavy +500 favorite. He looks a bit off right now, failing to finish in the Top 15 of his past three events. He was 20th here in 2014 and tied for seventh in 2013.

Henrik Stenson is +1200. The Swede was just 28th last week but finished fourth in his debut at this event in 2015, missing the playoff by a shot. He had been playing very well overseas before his USA 2016 debut at Doral.

The favorites are rounded out by Willett (+2000), Oosthuizen and Reed (both +2500). Willet had that third last week and is playing here for the first time. Oosthuizen was 14th at Doral but has missed the cut here three years running. Reed had that runner-up here last year. He has struggled in the two Florida events thus far in 2016.

PGA Tour Picks: Valspar Championship Betting Predictions

For a Top 10, I'll go with Spieth (-200), Stenson (+135) and Luke Donald, a blast from the past, at +450. He has finished in the Top 6 here in four of his past five trips, winning in 2012. Go with John Senden as the top Aussie at +200; he won this in 2014. I like Donald at +900 as the top European.

Head-to-head, go with K.J. Choi (-140) over Bill Haas (+110), Justin Thomas (-115) over Branden Grace (-115), Harris English (-125) over Matt Kuchar (-105), Graeme McDowell (-120) over Ryan Moore (-110), Kevin Na (even) over Jason Dufner (-130), Gary Woodland (-120) over Ryan Palmer (-110), Donald (even) over Webb Simpson (-130), and Spieth (-150) over Stenson (+115).

As for the winner, I'm going to spread my wager over two guys this week: Na (+4000) and English (+3500). The latter has Top 10s in two of his past three trips here. Na was runner-up here in 2014 and T10 last year.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's six-pack

NFL has an amazing gift for staying in the headlines 12 months a year........

-- Texans signed QB Osweiler, traded for RB Thomas, redoing their offense.

-- Texans stayed at 35-1 to win the Super Bowl, even after the Osweiler signing; Las Vegas was unimpressed.

-- New Jersey Giants spent $105.5M revamping their defense yesterday. one day after they re-signed Jason Pierre-Paul for $10.5M.

-- Colts gave K Vinatieri $6M for two years; he is 43 years old.

-- ESPN replaced Mike Ditka with Matt Hasselbeck on its Sunday morning show; Ditka is 76, will still be on SportsCenter now and then.

-- Chiefs lose a 3rd round pick next month, a 7th round pick next year because they tampered with free agent WR Jeremy Maclin last off-season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence

Iowa State vs Oklahoma

Play - Iowa State

Edges - Cyclones: 10-3 SUATS versus foe off a win this season, including 3-0 ATS as a dog. Sooners: 3-11 ATS as conference favorites this season, including 1-7 ATS with 3 or more days of rest; and 2-14 ATS last 16 games in this tourney. With OU 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS the last four games in this series, we recommend a 1* play on Iowa State. Thank you and good luck as always.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Art Aronson

Oilers vs Wild

1* Bonus Play Minnesota Wild

If you don’t mind laying some chalk, then we think the Wild are absolutely worth a second look in this spot. Minnesota looks to bounce back after its four-game win streak was snapped in a 4-2 loss to St. Louis on Sunday. The Wild are 8-4-0 since interim coach John Torchetti took over. And now with three whole days off to prepare for this one, there can’t be any excuses about looking past or not being prepared for the lowly Oilers. If recent history is any precedence though, then the Wild have to be feeling pretty confident that they’ll return to the winners circle, they’ve taken the first two meetings of the year and will look for the season sweep with a victory tonight. Note the ex-Oilers goaltender Devan Dubnyk is 6-1-0 with a 1.28 GAA against his former club. And that’s bad news for an Edmonton team which has lost two of its last three and which is just 1 for 24 with the man advantage over its last 11 contests. All signs point to a lop-sided final score, making the WILD well worth the price in this position.

AAA Sports

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer

Western Kentucky vs UAB

Bonus Play Western Kentucky

I'm recommending a play on Western Kentucky plus the points over UAB. The Hilltoppers, already a quality shooting team, are playing their best basketball of the season when it counts the most. Yesterday's win over North Texas gave WKU their third straight win, fifth win in six games, and their sixth straight cover. Their only SU loss in their last six games came against these UAB Blazers, a 71-67 loss in late February. The Hilltoppers covered the spread on the road and held a short lead in the second half in a game that was close throughout. UAB enters on a five game winning streak, but they haven't been friendly to their monetary backers. The Blazers are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games and I believe they're over-valued here. I mentioned WKU is a quality shooting team. To be exact, they're connecting on 53.3% of their FGA in their last five games, including 43.5% from behind the arc. They have been outstanding on the glass down the stretch and are averaging nearly 17 assists per game with a pair of solid "dishers" in Chris McNeal and Fredrick Edmond. I expect the Hilltoppers to hang this number at the very least. I'm recommending a play on Western Kentucky plus the points on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jack Jones

Arkansas vs Florida

Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Florida Gators -2.5

The Florida Gators head into the SEC Tournament way undervalued as only 2.5-point favorites over the Arkansas Razorbacks. It wasn't that long ago that the Gators were a lock to make the tournament, but a poor finish has them on the outside looking in.

Still, the Gators are right there as they are in Joe Lunardi's "Next Four Out" list of teams. A couple wins in the SEC Tournament, and they could be right back in the thick of things. But it starts with a victory over Arkansas, which I have no doubt they'll get to open the tournament.

Yes, the Gators lost four of their final five games, but three of those were against NCAA Tournament teams in South Carolina, Vanderbilt and Kentucky. The other was against LSU on the road, and the Tigers are also a bubble team.

Arkansas comes in overvalued due to winning four of its final five games. But all four came against non-tournament teams in Missouri, LSU, Tennessee and Alabama. They lost 61-76 at home to the only tournament team in South Carolina. They aren't playing as well as that finish against weak competition would indicate, and they are still just 16-15 on the season.

Arkansas does not play well away from home, going 3-11 in all road games this season. The Razorbacks are a woeful 69-113 ATS in their last 182 conference road games. The Razorbacks are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 neutral site games. Bet Florida Thursday.