NFL
Week 15
Cardinals (10-3) @ Rams (6-7)—St Louis is first NFL team in seven years to toss back/back shutouts; they won last three home games, beating Seattle/Denver. Arizona is 12-4 in last 16 series games, but lost last two visits here, by 14-3 points; Rams led 14-10 in 4th quarter at Arizona five weeks ago, before Palmer got hurt and Stanton threw winning TD pass, which was followed by two Arizona defensive TDs, which prompted QB change back to current starter Hill. Rams covered four of last six as home favorite; they’re +9 in turnovers over last four games, winning field position by 8+ yards in all four. Long road trip on short week for Arizona team that has home showdown with 2nd-place Seattle next week. Six of last eight Arizona games stayed under total; four of last five St Louis home games went over.
Raiders (2-11) @ Chiefs (7-6)—Since 2007, Chiefs are 1-10 as a divisional home favorite. KC lost last three games overall, scoring 16.7 ppg; they’re 14-56 (25%) on 3rd down over last five games. Raiders are 3-2-1 as road underdogs, with one loss by more than 10 points. Chiefs are 3-1 as home favorites, winning at home by 27-27-14-4 points, with losses to Titans/Broncos. Oakland won two of last three games, losing 52-0 in between two wins, first of which was 24-20 (+7) home win over Chiefs three weeks ago, when Raiders ran for 179 yards, converted 8-16 on 3rd down on Thursday night home game that was similar scenario to this week’s Card-Ram game. Raiders won six of last nine against Chiefs, winning six of last seven visits here; they’re Seven of last nine Chief games stayed under the total.
Jaguars (2-11) @ Ravens (8-5)—Since ’03, Baltimore is 29-14-1 as non-divisional home favorite, 3-1 this year. Ravens won three of last four games, running for 168.5 ypg in wins by 14-7-15 points, with 34-33 loss to Chargers when they lost in last minute. Jax lost five of last six games, scoring two defensive TDs in only win (trailed 21-3 at half); they’re 1-4-1 as road underdogs, losing true road games by 17-31-19-2-10-20 points, with last two losses their only two games on carpet this year (0-1-1 vs spread, 4-7-1 last 12). Home side won last five series games, with Baltimore winning seven of last nine after losing eight in row to Jags. Jax averaged under 4.5 ypa in each of last three games. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 5-6 vs spread; AFC North home favorites are 6-6. Six of last nine Jaguar games stayed under the total.
Steelers (8-5) @ Falcons (5-8)—AFC North teams (11-2-1) have treated NFC South like a piñata this year, but Steelers have both losses and at home/ Pitt would be in playoffs if they started now after gaining 543 yards in 42-21 win at Cincy last week; Steelers are 4-2 on road, 1-2 on carpet- they’re 29-54 on third down in last four games. Short week for Falcons after they fought back from 31-7 halftime deficit to lose/cover 43-37 at Lambeau Monday night; health of star WR Jones (hip) obviously a big Atlanta concern. Falcons covered five of last six games, but are 1-8 SU in non-divisional games. Last five series games were decided by 4 or less points in OT, with last three going OT; Steelers won six of eight visits here, are 12-2-1 overall in last 15 series games. Six of last seven Steeler games, last three Atlanta games went over total.
Texans (7-6) @ Colts (9-4)—Indy can clinch division here; wary of teams off sloppy (3+ turnovers) wins, which is what Colts did in Cleveland last week, turning ball over four times but scoring in last 2:00 of each half, including game-winning TD with 0:32 left. Colts turned ball over 10 times (-5) in last three games, two of which were at home; they’re 21-4 in this series, 12-0 here, with three of last four home wins vs Texans by 12+ points. Houston is 3-1 since its bye; they’ve won last three road games, are 2-1 as road dogs (were favored in 4 of first 7 on road), 0-2 on carpet, losing by 13 at Giants, 3 in OT at Dallas. Indy (-2.5) won first meeting 33-28 in Houston, running 30 more plays (82-52) than Texans. Favorites are 7-0 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this year, 3-0 at home. Three of last four Houston games stayed under total.
Bengals (8-4-1) @ Browns (7-6)—Manziel gets first NFL start here for Browns squad that lost three of last four games, scoring five TDs on last 50 drives; they lost at home last week, even with defense scoring two TDs. Cleveland won three of last four series games, winning 24-3 (+6) at Cincy in Week 10 Thursday game; Browns ran for 170 yards, had 368-165 edge in yardage over Jekyll/Hyde Bengal squad that gave up 543 yards in home loss to Steelers last week, after winning previous three games, all on road, giving up 71.3 rushing ypg. Last time Browns swept Cincinnati was 2002; they’re 4-3 at home, but lost last two, to Texans/Colts. Underdogs covered six of eight AFC North games this year. Eight of last nine Cleveland games, four of last five Bengal games stayed under the total.
Dolphins (7-6) @ Patriots (10-3)—Miami offense is fading, scoring 16-13 points in last two games, running for just 63 yards vs Ngata-less Ravens last week. Dolphins are 3-2-1 as underdogs this year, 2-2 on road; they’re 2-4 as divisional road dogs under Philbin. NE is home after splitting pair of grass games at GB/SD, practicing all week in SoCal last week; Patriots covered four of last five home games, scoring 42.7 ppg in last three home tilts. Pats lost 33-20 (-4) to Miami in season opener, second straight loss to Dolphins after seven wins; Fish lost last five visits here, with four of five by 10+ points. Since 2005, NE is just 9-12 vs spread as divisional home favorites, 0-1 this year. Home teams are 5-3 vs spread in AFC East divisional games this season. Seven of last eight Dolphin games, last three New England games stayed under the total.
Buccaneers (2-11) @ Panthers (4-8-1)—Cam Newton was involved in a car wreck Tuesday afternoon; as I type this, not sure if he is injured or not. Carolina is 4-8-1 but only half-game out of first in hideous NFC South, where road teams are 7-2 vs spread in divisional games. Carolina won season opener 20-14 (+2.5) behind backup QB Anderson; Panthers were +3 in turnovers as they beat Bucs for third straight time, by 18-21-6 points. Tampa lost four of last six games in Charlotte; they’ve lost seven of last eight games overall, but are 4-2 as road underdogs with a win at Pittsburgh. Carolina had 271 rushing yards in easy win in Superdome last week; they’ve lost last three home games, scoring 12 ppg. Six of last seven Bucs’ games stayed under total; three of last four Panther games went over. This series has resulted in season sweeps last five years.
Redskins (3-10) @ Giants (4-9)—Washington QB McCoy (neck) is a ??; RGIII is back in lineup if he can’t go, as dysfunctional Redskins look to avenge 45-14 (-3) thrashing they took at home from Giants in Week 4, when Cousins-led Skins turned ball over six times (-5). Big Blue won 10 of last 13 series games but lost seven of last eight games overall; they’ve led last three games by 11+ points at half, but lost two of them. Washington lost last five games (1-4 vs spread); they’re 10 of last 40 on third down and look generally disinterested, allowing fake PAT and a punt return TD last week vs Rams. Giants are favored for only third time (1-1) this season; they’re 2-4 SU at home, beating Texans by 13, Falcons by 10. NFC East home favorites are 1-4 in divisional games. Five of last seven Redskin games stayed under; five of last seven Giant games went over.
Packers (10-3) @ Bills (7-6)—Short week for Packer defense that looked exhausted in second half Monday night, giving up 30 second half points after leading 31-7 at half. Green Bay won its last five games (3-2 vs spread) but is just 3-3 SU on road, (1-1-1 as road favorite) with two of three wins by FG (won 38-17 at Bears)- they lost three of four games on carpet this season. Bills covered last three games, are 4-3 SU at home, 0-2 as home dog- they allowed one TD on 23 drives in winning last two home games (Jets/Browns). Home side won last six series games and nine of 11, with Packers losing last five visits here, all by 7+ points. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 10-6, 1-0 on road; AFC East underdogs are 10-8, 3-2 at home. Eight of last ten Green Bay games went over; last five Buffalo games stayed under.
Vikings (6-7) @ Lions (9-4)—Favorites are 8-1 vs spread in NFC North divisional games. Detroit won six of last eight games, winning last two by 34-17 scores (8 TDs, 4 FGA on 19 drives); they beat Minnesota 17-3 (-1.5) in Week 6, picking off three passes in game where teams combined to go 4-27 on 3rd down (Lions were 1-13). Detroit is 6-1 at home, 5-2 as home favorite, with four of six home wins by 12+ points. Minnesota is playing rookie QB, had Peterson for only one game, so 6-7 is pretty good for them; they’ve won four of last six games, covered six of last seven- they’re 3-3 as road underdogs. Vikings are 19-6 in last 25 series games, but lost three of last four visits here; they’re 2-4 on road, losing four of last five on foreign soil. Last two Lion games went over total, after previous ten had stayed under.
Jets (2-11) @ Titans (2-11)—Both teams won season opener and very little since; have sense that Titans are subtly tanking season to get #1 pick in draft- they trailed last two games 24-0/23-0 at half. Jets are trying because Ryan knows he’s getting fired and he is auditioning for his next job. Home side won last three series games; Jets lost 14-10/38-13 in last two visits here. AFC East non-divisional road teams are 9-7 vs spread; AFC South home teams are 8-11. Mettenberger (shoulder) is done for year, so Locker, Whitehurst are their QBs. Tennessee’s last win was October 12; five of their last six losses are by 14+ points. Jets lost last three games, by 35-3-6- they gave up 87-yard TD pass in OT last week. Four of last five Jet games stayed under; three of last four Tennessee games went over. Bad teams don’t have a home field advantage.
Broncos (10-3) @ Chargers (8-5)—San Diego is just 2-8 vs spread in its last ten divisional home games; they had 3-game win streak snapped by Patriots last week, are 5-2 SU at home, but failed to cover last four at Qualcomm. Denver (-9) beat Bolts 35-21 in Week 8 Thursday night game, picking Rivers off twice (+2) and converting 8-13 on third down; Broncos won six of last seven series games, winning last three visits here by 3-11-8 points- they’re 9-2 vs spread in divisional road games in Manning era. Broncos ran ball for 201-214-133 yards in last three games since loss in St Louis; they’re 9-0 on grass this season, 1-3 on carpet. San Diego is just 31 of last 82 on 3rd down (22 of last 71 if you take out Raven win); they’ve lost field position in seven of last eight games, losing by 15-18 yards last two weeks—hard to win that way. Three of last four Denver games stayed under total.
49ers (7-6) @ Seahawks (9-4)—Niners’ last stand of the Harbaugh era; they got spanked 19-3 (-1.5) by Seattle at home two weeks ago, gaining only 164 yards with three turnovers (-3). SF is 3-4 in last seven games, losing last two weeks while scoring one TD on 18 drives (seven 3/outs); they’re -7 in turnovers last three games, with only one takeaway. Seattle won six of last seven games, allowing two TDs on 30 drives in last three games, with 13 3/outs; they’re 4-2 as home favorites this year, 7-2 overall under Carroll. 49ers split pair of games as road underdogs this year, losing at Denver, winning in New Orleans. Seahawks won four of last five series games; 49ers lost last three visits here, by 29-26-6 points. Five of last seven series totals were 36 or less. Last four 49er games, last three Seattle games stayed under the total.
Cowboys (9-4) @ Eagles (9-4)—In their last four wins, Philly is 32-65 on third down; in their last two losses, they’re 7-26, so its up to Sanchez to move chains when necessary and hand off to McCoy/Sproles rest of time. Eagles (+3.5) crushed Dallas 33-10 on Thanksgiving, running for 256 yards and outgaining Pokes by 197 yards. Iggles’ last six games were all decided by 10+ points; they’re 4-3 as home favorites, winning all seven SU. Dallas had 10 days off after Chicago game last week; they’re 3-1 as underdogs this year, won three of last four games SU. Home side lost last three games in series where Eagles won last two meetings after losing seven of previous ten; Dallas won four of last five visits here, winning 38-23/17-3 last two years. Three of last four Dallas games, four of last six Philly games went over the total.
Saints (5-8) @ Bears (5-8)—Neither team here inspires any confidence. Saints covered once in last eight games as a road favorite; they lost SU last four times they were favored, but they won last two road games, scoring 63 points. Road team won their last six games, after losing first seven. Dome team as road favorite on a December night in Chicago is a brutal spot, but Bears lost five of last seven games, allowing 75 points last two weeks and best WR Marshall (back) is done for year. Chicago failed to cover last five tries as a home underdog; they covered once in last seven tries as an underdog overall. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 4-10 vs spread, 0-3 on road. NFC North underdogs are 6-10, 1-2 at home. Four of last six Chicago games, four of last five Saint games went over the total.
