Mohawk: Thursday 11/3 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale
DRF
Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 7,8 / 1,2,6 / 4,6,7 / 1,2,3 / 4,6,8 = $32.40
EARLY PICK 4: 1,2,3 / 4,6,8 / 1,3,7,9 / 5 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 1,2,3,5 / 5,8,9 / 1,4 / 4,5,8 = $72
MEET STATS: 459 - 1366 / $2396.00 BEST BETS: 72 - 125 / $225.60
SPOT PLAYS: 31 - 125 / $203.20
Best Bet: GEORGIES POCKETS (1st)
Spot Play: BROOKDALE SONNY (7th)
Race 1
(8) GEORGIES POCKETS went a long trip last time vs. better. He is a top contender here despite his post. (7) J L BAD MOON RISIN is only 2 for 28, but he has also faced better than these most of the year; using. (5) MONOPOLY has raced decently in his last two and his gait issues may be a thing of the past now. He can share here. (6) MISSION MAN seems suited to fill one of the lower exotic rungs here.
Race 2
(6) AGENT DINOZZO was impressive last week racing in poor conditions. He can repeat here and trot much faster. (1) WINDSUN MISSILE faces his easiest test in a while and he should be heard from. (2) MOSTINTERESTINGMAN woke up last time and had a good kick at the end of the mile. He isn’t out of this. (3) MOONSTAR MISSION could pick up a piece here if he stays flat.
Race 3
(7) UNITED BI should show much more here in his second start off the shelf from a better post. Keep in mind that Henry has already won with him at a big price earlier in the meet. (4) KRONWALL has won four of his last five starts after losing his first 18 starts. He will need to be faster here, but I respect his sharp current form. (6) THE LAND SHARK can threaten here from close range. (2) WEVE HAD ENOUGH figures to stick around for a smaller share.
Race 4
(2) LITTLE QUICK closed mildly in his first race back at Mohawk. He could swoop by some winded leaders in the lane this time. (3) CALGARY SEELSTER got used up early last time. He is a threat at this level and merits multi-race consideration. (1) BEIBER HANOVER also rates highly on the class drop and starting from the inside. (4) LOST IN PANSLATION will be part of the early pace at a minimum, but the three above rate higher here.
Race 5
(6) JACK RACKHAM was hard-used on the lead on October 22nd, the night where speed stopped every race. I’ll give him another chance here, likely at a better price. (4) SENIOR K was on the rim a long way last time but he gamely kept advancing for the win. He is in top shape now. (8) SOLO STORY is the best closer in the race; he will be coming late. (3) MAYFIELD DUKE should be a threat from close range here.
Race 6
(7) MR MATCH ON BEACH got stalled on bad cover several times last week. There should be a better flow to this race; call to upset. (3) P L JACKSON brings a great record in from out of town and he looks like the one to beat. (1) BIG PLACE is capable of a big late charge off a covered trip – which he could get here. (9) TANGO STAR couldn’t shake the persistent winner last time and he faded a bit late in the mile. He could last longer here.
Race 7
(5) BROOKDALE SONNY was hung out to dry in his return race, but that trip should have him tighter for this start from a much better post; top call. (7) SWORD OF THE SPIRIT comes off two sharp efforts a notch higher. He’ll be tough in here. (2) BIG PETES STYLE can make the ticket off a following trip near the front. (9) ST LADS LOTTO got in all kinds of traffic last time as the chalk but he was closing okay once free. He can take a slice here.
Race 8
(2) ARCHANGEL THREE was on perfect cover last time but he just couldn’t bridge the gap late. Returning a bit faster for this race could make the difference. (1) MACH POWER was close to the pace on a speed-killing track and still managed to save 2nd; using. (5) BUGATTI is likely to be a threat moving into Moreau’s barn. (3) OK ICEMAN can take a share racing near the front here.
Race 9
(9) CORE FUSION adds Lasix coming off his best mile yet; slight nod. (8) HILARIOUS HERO looks good here, but he is also 0-15 and may not be the best win bet if he is a short price. (5) ST JAMES GATE is unbeaten out of town and merits respect here, although he will need to shave a few seconds off to beat these. (3) STORMONT DUNDAS is likely for a minor share again, as always, it seems.
Race 10
(4) EAS IDEAL comes off a sharp mile at Hoosier and now moves to the potent Weller barn shipping in; slight nod. (1) AMERICAN BEACH was only a nose behind the Metro Pace winner in his October 20th qualifier. He should wake up here with a better effort. (7) REDHOT ROMEO has two good starts under his belt and there is every reason to expect he can go forward off those miles. (2) SHARKY SHARK has two decent qualifying miles and he can take a smaller share here.
Race 11
(5) LATE NIGHT made a threatening move but was probably out too long and faded a bit late last time. He can get it done with a better trip here. (8) TEA WITH MS MCGILL has looked sharp and sound in his last two and he can threaten here off the claim. (4) URBAN NATION had speed both early and late last time; using. (6) LYONS GEOFF JNR is a good one to use on the bottom of vertical wagers. (7) THINK AGAIN is another that is likely to finish on the fringes here.
