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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Oklahoma at Iowa State
By Joe Nelson

Oklahoma is alone at 5-0 in first place in the Big XII standings, looking for another great late season run to wipe out a rough September. Iowa State may be 0-5 in conference play, but this has been a competitive group that was close to a few major upsets and this Thursday night Big XII clash should provide an entertaining start to the football weekend.

Match-up: Oklahoma Sooners at Iowa State Cyclones
Venue: Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa
Time/TV: Thursday, Nov. 3, 7:30 PM ET
Line: Oklahoma -21, Over/Under 70
Last Meeting: 2015, at Oklahoma (-24) 52, Iowa State 16

The Sooners made the College Football Playoff last season despite an early season loss and this year’s team seems to be on a mission to try to do the same even against steep odds with two September defeats. The candidacy for the Sooners is fragile with the losses to Houston and Ohio State no longer looking as impressive as they did when both squads were undefeated top 10 teams. Oklahoma is still the favorite to win the Big XII with four games to go and the Sooners can still wind up with an attractive bowl pairing at the end of the year while being ready to move up should chaos occur on championship weekend.

The 5-0 start in Big XII play has featured three wins by a touchdown or less and Oklahoma has allowed 33 points per game in conference play as one can’t assume that the Sooners will win out. The final three games are against Baylor, at West Virginia, and rival Oklahoma State and this could be a dangerous game that gets a bit overlooked.

Iowa State made three bowl appearances in seven seasons under Paul Rhodes, but made a move after last season hiring Matt Campbell who led Toledo to four successful seasons. At 1-7 and winless in the Big XII it has been a tough transition season and barring a major upset a third 2-10 campaign in the last decade looks like the most likely scenario. This is a team that can still get a season-making win as they played very close in narrow losses against Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State.

Iowa State has had a handful of significant upsets in recent years including beating Iowa two years ago on the road and most notably stunning Oklahoma State as a four-touchdown underdog late in the 2011 season when the Cowboys were 10-0 and the #2 team in the nation. This series has generally featured blowouts for the Sooners, including a combined score of 159-40 the past three seasons. Iowa State last beat Oklahoma in 1990 in a major upset, but they haven’t even played to within closer than 10 points with the Sooners since 1998.

Despite being a bit of a disappointment this season Oklahoma still owns elite offensive numbers, gaining an eye-popping 7.8 yards per play and throwing for 344 yards per game behind Baker Mayfield. Considered a Heisman candidate to start the season, Mayfield is completing nearly 71 percent of his passes and he should surpass last season’s production numbers, though likely with more interceptions as well with five already this season. Sophomore Joe Mixon has been the star in the backfield with over 800 rushing yards and over 300 receiving yards while senior Dede Westbrook should finish as one of them most successful receivers in the nation.

Oklahoma’s defense came to play last week vs. Kansas in a 56-3 result but allowing 854 yards against Texas Tech in the prior game makes this team hard to take seriously in the national conversation. The Sooners have allowed 40 or more points in half of their eight games as opposing teams have had a lot of success against Oklahoma, mainly through the air. Last season’s Oklahoma defense exposed the team in the national semifinal vs. Clemson and on average this year’s team has allowed about 10 more points per game and nearly 70 more yards per game compared with the 2015 squad.

The Iowa State defense doesn’t rate much stronger especially with far worse numbers against the run, but the Cyclones can have hope of an upset knowing they should be able to keep pace in this matchup. The Cyclones have played two quarterbacks most of the season, but it seems like sophomore Jacob Park is taking on a bigger share of the snaps of late though junior Joel Lanning has stronger numbers across the board this season. The big issue for Iowa State has been the lack of a running game this season with the team gaining just 3.6 yards per rush and being unable to sustain long drives was certainly the downfall in blowing late leads in a few big games this season, most notably vs. Baylor when Iowa State had a 42-28 edge in the fourth quarter.

Iowa State has been out-gained on the ground in six of eight games this season and getting out-rushed was a common thread in both Oklahoma losses this season. Over the past three games, Iowa State is running the ball a bit more effectively at 4.8 yards per carry and 188 yards per game and the home and road splits paint an opportunity for the Cyclones as Oklahoma has allowed 6.8 yards per play away from home while Iowa State has much better defensive numbers in Ames.

Ultimately this is a win that would mean more to Iowa State although a loss would certainly be more damaging for Oklahoma. It may not be an ideal spot for either team as while hosting a national TV game should be a draw for the Cyclones, facing a powerful offense on a short week is a big challenge. The Cyclones also came up short in last week’s homecoming game vs. Kansas State, losing 31-26 as Iowa State had a big yardage edge though late scoring made the final score closer than the game ever was. For Oklahoma, next week’s game with Baylor could decide the Big XII title and the team clearly played one of its best games last week, albeit vs. Kansas. It will be tough to be quite as sharp this week with travel and a short week schedule for the Sooners ahead of one of the season’s biggest games.

Historical Trends: Oklahoma is 26-1-1 S/U and 16-12 ATS in this series going back to 1980, going 9-2 ATS since 1999 and winning S/U in each of the last 17 meetings. Oklahoma is 9-5 ATS at Iowa State since 1980, winning S/U in all 14 of those meetings as Iowa State hasn’t won at home in this series since 1960. Oklahoma is just 5-8 ATS as a double-digit road favorite since 2010 and the Sooners are 44-52 ATS as a favorite of 20 or more points in any venue since 1990, though going 7-3 ATS since 2014 in that heavy favorite role. Iowa State has covered in four straight games as a home underdog including both instances this season. Iowa State has covered in just two of the last eight instances when dogged by 20 or more points. The Cyclones have won S/U three times since 2009 as an underdog of 20 or more points as they have had a few major upsets in recent years. Matt Campbell owns a S/U record of 20-8 (15-11-2 ATS) in home games while Bob Stoops is 59-21 S/U and 44-36 ATS in road games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Oklahoma at Iowa State
By Joe Nelson

Oklahoma is alone at 5-0 in first place in the Big XII standings, looking for another great late season run to wipe out a rough September. Iowa State may be 0-5 in conference play, but this has been a competitive group that was close to a few major upsets and this Thursday night Big XII clash should provide an entertaining start to the football weekend.

Match-up: Oklahoma Sooners at Iowa State Cyclones
Venue: Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa
Time/TV: Thursday, Nov. 3, 7:30 PM ET
Line: Oklahoma -21, Over/Under 70
Last Meeting: 2015, at Oklahoma (-24) 52, Iowa State 16

The Sooners made the College Football Playoff last season despite an early season loss and this year’s team seems to be on a mission to try to do the same even against steep odds with two September defeats. The candidacy for the Sooners is fragile with the losses to Houston and Ohio State no longer looking as impressive as they did when both squads were undefeated top 10 teams. Oklahoma is still the favorite to win the Big XII with four games to go and the Sooners can still wind up with an attractive bowl pairing at the end of the year while being ready to move up should chaos occur on championship weekend.

The 5-0 start in Big XII play has featured three wins by a touchdown or less and Oklahoma has allowed 33 points per game in conference play as one can’t assume that the Sooners will win out. The final three games are against Baylor, at West Virginia, and rival Oklahoma State and this could be a dangerous game that gets a bit overlooked.

Iowa State made three bowl appearances in seven seasons under Paul Rhodes, but made a move after last season hiring Matt Campbell who led Toledo to four successful seasons. At 1-7 and winless in the Big XII it has been a tough transition season and barring a major upset a third 2-10 campaign in the last decade looks like the most likely scenario. This is a team that can still get a season-making win as they played very close in narrow losses against Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State.

Iowa State has had a handful of significant upsets in recent years including beating Iowa two years ago on the road and most notably stunning Oklahoma State as a four-touchdown underdog late in the 2011 season when the Cowboys were 10-0 and the #2 team in the nation. This series has generally featured blowouts for the Sooners, including a combined score of 159-40 the past three seasons. Iowa State last beat Oklahoma in 1990 in a major upset, but they haven’t even played to within closer than 10 points with the Sooners since 1998.

Despite being a bit of a disappointment this season Oklahoma still owns elite offensive numbers, gaining an eye-popping 7.8 yards per play and throwing for 344 yards per game behind Baker Mayfield. Considered a Heisman candidate to start the season, Mayfield is completing nearly 71 percent of his passes and he should surpass last season’s production numbers, though likely with more interceptions as well with five already this season. Sophomore Joe Mixon has been the star in the backfield with over 800 rushing yards and over 300 receiving yards while senior Dede Westbrook should finish as one of them most successful receivers in the nation.

Oklahoma’s defense came to play last week vs. Kansas in a 56-3 result but allowing 854 yards against Texas Tech in the prior game makes this team hard to take seriously in the national conversation. The Sooners have allowed 40 or more points in half of their eight games as opposing teams have had a lot of success against Oklahoma, mainly through the air. Last season’s Oklahoma defense exposed the team in the national semifinal vs. Clemson and on average this year’s team has allowed about 10 more points per game and nearly 70 more yards per game compared with the 2015 squad.

The Iowa State defense doesn’t rate much stronger especially with far worse numbers against the run, but the Cyclones can have hope of an upset knowing they should be able to keep pace in this matchup. The Cyclones have played two quarterbacks most of the season, but it seems like sophomore Jacob Park is taking on a bigger share of the snaps of late though junior Joel Lanning has stronger numbers across the board this season. The big issue for Iowa State has been the lack of a running game this season with the team gaining just 3.6 yards per rush and being unable to sustain long drives was certainly the downfall in blowing late leads in a few big games this season, most notably vs. Baylor when Iowa State had a 42-28 edge in the fourth quarter.

Iowa State has been out-gained on the ground in six of eight games this season and getting out-rushed was a common thread in both Oklahoma losses this season. Over the past three games, Iowa State is running the ball a bit more effectively at 4.8 yards per carry and 188 yards per game and the home and road splits paint an opportunity for the Cyclones as Oklahoma has allowed 6.8 yards per play away from home while Iowa State has much better defensive numbers in Ames.

Ultimately this is a win that would mean more to Iowa State although a loss would certainly be more damaging for Oklahoma. It may not be an ideal spot for either team as while hosting a national TV game should be a draw for the Cyclones, facing a powerful offense on a short week is a big challenge. The Cyclones also came up short in last week’s homecoming game vs. Kansas State, losing 31-26 as Iowa State had a big yardage edge though late scoring made the final score closer than the game ever was. For Oklahoma, next week’s game with Baylor could decide the Big XII title and the team clearly played one of its best games last week, albeit vs. Kansas. It will be tough to be quite as sharp this week with travel and a short week schedule for the Sooners ahead of one of the season’s biggest games.

Historical Trends: Oklahoma is 26-1-1 S/U and 16-12 ATS in this series going back to 1980, going 9-2 ATS since 1999 and winning S/U in each of the last 17 meetings. Oklahoma is 9-5 ATS at Iowa State since 1980, winning S/U in all 14 of those meetings as Iowa State hasn’t won at home in this series since 1960. Oklahoma is just 5-8 ATS as a double-digit road favorite since 2010 and the Sooners are 44-52 ATS as a favorite of 20 or more points in any venue since 1990, though going 7-3 ATS since 2014 in that heavy favorite role. Iowa State has covered in four straight games as a home underdog including both instances this season. Iowa State has covered in just two of the last eight instances when dogged by 20 or more points. The Cyclones have won S/U three times since 2009 as an underdog of 20 or more points as they have had a few major upsets in recent years. Matt Campbell owns a S/U record of 20-8 (15-11-2 ATS) in home games while Bob Stoops is 59-21 S/U and 44-36 ATS in road games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview and Prediction: Buffalo Bulls (2-6) at Ohio Bobcats (6-3)
Thursday, November 3, 2016 at 6:00 pm (Peden Stadium)
The Line: Ohio Bobcats -18.5 -- Over/Under:
TV: CBSSN

The Buffalo Bulls and Ohio Bobcats meet Thursday night in a MAC college football game at Peden Stadium.

The Buffalo Bulls look for their first road win of the season and first back-to-back victories of the year. The Buffalo Bulls have lost four straight road games overall. Tyree Jackson is completing 52.8 percent of his passes for 1,374 yards, eight touchdowns and seven interceptions. Jackson has thrown five interceptions in his last two games. Mason Schreck and Marcus McGill have combined for 655 receiving yards and three touchdowns while Malcolm Robinson has 16 receptions. The Buffalo Bulls ground game is averaging 169 yards per contest, and Jordan Johnson leads the way with 725 yards and four touchdowns. Defensively, Buffalo is allowing 31.8 points and 427.3 yards per game. Khalil Hodge leads the Buffalo Bulls with 93 tackles, Brandon Crawford has two sacks and Tim Roberts has two interceptions.

The Ohio Bobcats look to build on their MAC East lead after winning five of their last six games. The Ohio Bobcats have lost three home games dating back to last season. Greg Windham is completing 56.4 percent of his passes for 1,366 yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions. Windham and Quinton Maxwell have combined for 14 touchdown passes this season. Sebastian Smith and Jordan Reid have combined for 1,003 receiving yards and seven touchdowns while Papi White has 21 receptions. The Ohio Bobcats ground game is averaging 200 yards per contest, and Dorian Brown leads the way with 624 yards and three touchdowns. Defensively, Ohio is allowing 24.4 points and 376.9 yards per game. Blair Brown leads the Ohio Bobcats with 78 tackles, Tarell Basham has 7.5 sacks and Kylan Nelson has two interceptions.

The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The Bobcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall. The Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings and the over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.

The Buffalo Bulls simply aren't a good football team and haven't had much success in covering games either. Ohio has proven to be one of the better teams in the MAC and has covered nine of its last 13 games. Also, the last three games between Buffalo and Ohio resulted in the home team winning in a blowout. Given what we've seen from both teams, I have to side with the Ohio Bobcats at home by three touchdowns.

RANDY'S PICK
Ohio Bobcats -18.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Buffaloes, Bruins battle

College Football Week 10 Thursday Night Preview
UCLA (3-5 SU, 2-6 ATS) vs. Colorado (6-2 SU, 8-0 ATS)

It's no secret now that the Colorado Buffaloes have been the best bet in college football for the better part of a calendar year now. Colorado finished the 2015-16 campaign on a 4-2 ATS run and have carried that over to this season as they are a perfect 8-0 ATS in 2016.

They are in prime position to compete for a Pac-12 Championship for the first time since they've moved to that conference, and could even end up sneaking into the College Football Playoff picture if everything falls right for them. Three of their final four games this year are at home which is a huge plus and that stretch begins as a double digit home favorite vs. UCLA this week.

The Bruins are in the midst of another disappointing campaign as they are 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS in their eight contests this year. They've lost QB Josh Rosen for the year with nerve damage in his shoulder and backup QB Mike Fafaul has taken over and shown promise at times.

Fafaul threw 70 passes and five TD's in a 52-45 loss to Utah last time out as the Bruins have basically become a one-dimensional team now with no running game to speak of. That's a huge cause for concern against a Colorado team that is one of the best in the conference and can gear up to stop the aerial attack.

If that's the case Colorado doesn't even need to be at their best to keep UCLA's offense in check because they will almost assuredly get help from the Bruins carelessness with the football.

Odds: Colorado (-12.5)

For as promising as Fafaul as looked at times during games, his biggest problem is interceptions. He's thrown at least two interceptions in each game he's seen significant playing time, and had four INT's to go along with those five TD passes last time out. Turnovers are a killer for any team, but when UCLA's QB has turned it over eight times in two and a half games, it's not surprising to see the Bruins have a losing record this year.

Turning the ball over repeatedly is not something anyone wants to do against this Colorado defense as they've shut down nearly everyone they've gone up against. Yes, the Buffs did give up 45 points in a road loss at #2 Michigan, and followed that up a week later by allowing 38 points at Oregon, but other than those two games the Buffaloes have allowed 7, 7, 6, 21, 16, and 5 points.

With that kind of production on defense, it's no wonder that they are the best CFB team against the spread this year. They should have a field day against Fafaul and UCLA's offense this week as they should grab multiple turnovers to set their offense up in prime scoring spots.

So while all streaks must come to an end and Colorado will eventually not cover a point spread, I don't believe that will happen this week. In all facets of the game the Buffaloes are the much better team here and with UCLA's defense just getting torched for 52 points last time out, this game has blowout written all over it.

Colorado has covered the last three games with UCLA and although the Buffaloes were listed as double digit underdogs in all three of those games, the team that cashes the betting ticket this year won't change. Colorado almost beat UCLA outright the last two years as +22.5 and +14 dogs respectively, and now that the roles are reversed in terms of the point spread, I expect Colorado to roll over this banged up and turnover prone UCLA program.

Best Bet: Take Colorado -12.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Football Predictions: Week 10 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews

You can go ahead and start ignoring the Associated Press and USA Today Coaches Top 25 polls starting this week. That's because the first College Football Playoff rankings will be out Tuesday night, and those are all that matter in terms of finding out which teams will make the national semifinals and a New Year's Six bowl game.

Alas, I doubt there's much drama in the first rankings as they are surely going to mirror the top four teams in the polls: Alabama, Michigan, Clemson and Washington. There's no question the Tide will be No. 1, but the next three could be in any order. Doesn't really matter as if all four teams win out, that will be your Final Four.

The Tide are +135 favorites to repeat as National Champions and they come off a bye week. Alabama has a huge one Saturday at No. 15 LSU as a 7-point favorite. Those Tigers also come off a bye week and have been playing vastly better offensively since firing Les Miles and offensive coordinator Cam Cameron -- one of the reasons Miles was so squarely on the hot seat entering this season was his five-game losing streak to Nick Saban. If interim coach Ed Orgeron can pull off the upset on Saturday, he probably gets the interim tag taken off unless the Tigers then flop the rest of the way.

Last season, LSU was unbeaten and ranked fourth when it visited No. 7 and one-loss Alabama. You may remember that Leonard Fournette was the Heisman Trophy betting favorite at the time but he was held to 31 yards on 19 carries in the 30-16 loss. That started LSU on a three-game skid that almost got Miles fired last year. Meanwhile, Derrick Henry took control of the Heisman race with 210 yards and three touchdowns on 38 carries. This is Alabama's final true road game and, I believe, its only realistic chance of losing until the playoff. No, I don't think No. 11 Auburn wins in Tuscaloosa and the SEC East champ has no shot in Atlanta.

No. 2 Michigan is +500 to win it all and was pushed a little by Michigan State on Saturday but ended a three-game skid in the series with a 32-23 victory -- not coming close to covering the ridiculous 24-point spread. The Wolverines should have little trouble this week at home vs. Maryland (+30).

No. 3 Clemson won at Florida State for the first time in 10 years, 37-34 in a great game. Deshaun Watson kept his Heisman hopes alive with 430 yards of offense, including the winning 34-yard TD pass to Jordan Leggett with 2:06 to go. Clemson, now +700 to win it all, is a 26-point home favorite this week vs. Syracuse and has no ranked teams left on the schedule before the ACC title game. The No. 4 Huskies won 31-24 at No. 17 Utah on a punt-return TD with 3:25 left. Washington, +700 for the national title as well, is -15.5 this week at Cal and has one ranked team left on the schedule: the Apple Cup at No. 25 Washington State to close the season. The Cougars are overrated, though.

Here are a few Week 10 opening lines that caught my eye. Rankings from AP poll and games Saturday unless noted.

No. 12 Oklahoma at Iowa State (+21): ESPN Thursday night game. The Big 12 was a big-time loser in Week 9 as unbeatens Baylor and West Virginia were upset by Texas and Oklahoma State, respectively. So now it's looking likely that the only chance the conference has to reach the playoff is Oklahoma, and that's going to be quite difficult considering the Sooners already have two nonconference losses. But OU is the only team without a loss in conference. This could be a bit of a trap game as the Sooners finish the season vs. No. 13 Baylor, at No. 14 West Virginia and vs. No. 22 Oklahoma State. But OU will be favored in all those unless Baker Mayfield gets hurt. The Big 12 really has not had a good few weeks. The conference looked silly when deciding two weeks ago not to expand, and then last week made the perplexing decision not to split into divisions next year when the conference championship game will return. Divisions could have made it possible to avoid having the championship game participants playing twice during a short period of time as cross-division games could have been scheduled for earlier in the season. For example, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State could play back-to-back weeks next year if they finish 1-2. Something similar happened in the Pac-12 in 2012 when UCLA and Stanford met back-to-back weeks. The pick: Iowa State.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview and Prediction: Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-4) at Georgia State Panthers (2-6)
Thursday, November 3, 2016 at 7:30 pm (Georgia Dome)
The Line: Georgia State Panthers +5 -- Over/Under: 46
TV: ESPNU

The Arkansas State Red Wolves and Georgia State Panthers clash in a Sun Belt college football game Thursday night at the Georgia Dome on ESPNU.

The Arkansas State Red Wolves look to build on their three-game winning streak to get back to an improbable .500 record. The Arkansas State Red Wolves have lost five of their last nine road games. Justice Hansen is completing 59.3 percent of his passes for 1,324 yards, 10 touchdowns and six interceptions. Hansen is coming off a four-touchdown passing performance against the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks. Blake Mack and Cam Echols-Luper have combined for 763 receiving yards and two touchdowns while Chris Murray has nine receptions. The Arkansas State Red Wolves ground game is averaging 141.1 yards per contest, and Warren Wand leads the way with 467 yards and three touchdowns. Defensively, Arkansas State is allowing 26.7 points and 419.1 yards per game. Xavier Woodson-Luster leads the Arkansas State Red Wolves with 54 tackles, Chris Odom has six sacks and Blaise Taylor has two interceptions.

The Georgia State Panthers look for their third home victory of the season to dig out of a rough 2-6 hole. The Georgia State Panthers must win out in order to become bowl eligible. Conner Manning is completing 55.7 percent of his passes for 1,441 yards, eight touchdowns and seven interceptions. Manning and Aaron Winchester have combined for nine touchdown passes this season. Robert Davis and Glenn Smith have combined for 910 receiving yards and four touchdowns while Todd Boyd has 26 receptions. The Georgia State Panthers ground game is averaging 93.8 yards per contest, and Kyler Neal leads the way with 200 yards and two touchdowns. Defensively, Georgia State is allowing 23.8 points and 394.5 yards per game. Alonzo McGee leads the Georgia State Panthers with 73 tackles, Mackendy Cheridor has 2.5 sacks and Jerome Smith has three interceptions.

The Red Wolves are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 conference games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November. The Panthers are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games in November. The under is 14-3 in Panthers last 17 games overall and the over is 20-8 in Red Wolves last 28 games overall.

Arkansas State has been a different team from when the season started and all of a sudden the Red Wolves have a chance to save things and sneak into a bowl game. Georgia State continues to play lousy football and has been hard to back no matter who it plays. Arkansas State has also outscored Georgia State by a combined score of 100-44 in the last two meetings. I have to side with the hot Red Wolves and the reasonable chalk.

RANDY'S PICK
Arkansas State Red Wolves -5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Oklahoma Sooners (6-2) at Iowa State Cyclones (1-7)

Date: November 03, 2016 7:30 PM EDT

Oklahoma is no stranger to national rankings, where the Sooners reside at No. 12 this week. And contending for a Big 12 title is the norm in Norman. But what is unique for the Sooners somewhat surprisingly is playing a midweek game.

For just the fourth time in the 18-year Bob Stoops era, Oklahoma will play a non-Saturday game when it travels to Iowa State on Thursday night (7:30 p.m., ESPN). It marks just the second time under Stoops that the Sooners, who cruised to a 56-3 victory over Kansas on Saturday, will have played a game with a shortened week. The other time was in 2007 when Oklahoma played Tulsa on a Friday night.

The Sooners' other two non-Saturday games during Stoops' tenure have come with either a bye week immediately preceding (Baylor, 2013) or to start the season (Tulsa, 2001).

"It's challenging to a degree but at this point of the year, it's not like all the sudden you start all over and have a whole new offense and defense," Stoops said.

Stoops did say the coaches started working on a game plan for Iowa State late last week before the Kansas game after they were comfortable with where their team stood in preparations for that game.

The Sooners (6-2, 5-0) usually get Sunday off but had to practice this week to try to get ready for the Thursday trip.

"It's a different mindset, for sure," Oklahoma receiver Mark Andrews said. "Usually you are able to relax and limp around all day. With this practice, you had to bounce back, get your mind right and get over the last game and get ready for a new one."

Offensive tackle Orlando Brown said it's usually not until Tuesday during a week where he feels fully re-energized after a game.

"Fortunately, we didn't have to play the whole game (against Kansas)," Brown said. "There's a bunch of reps right there that were cut out. Obviously guys will still be sore but it's not as bad."

Stoops said he wouldn't address Iowa State's midweek success much with his team. The Cyclones beat previously undefeated Oklahoma State in 2011 on a Friday night and took Texas down to the wire in 2013 before falling 31-30.

"It will be mentioned but not overly because those are different teams," Stoops said. "Those are different coaches at the time, different players at the time. So our focus is mainly on what we can control and that's being our best in how we compete and play."

Stoops also could lean on offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley for changing up preparation for a midweek game. When Riley held the same position at East Carolina, the Pirates often had to play Thursday and Friday games, and he's drawing on that experience this week.

"We went back and looked at what we did at East Carolina and some stuff worked and some stuff didn't so we've changed it up some," Riley said.

On paper it wouldn't seem to make much difference what day the two teams played. The Sooners have won 17 consecutive games in the series, with Iowa State's last win coming in 1990. The Cyclones (1-7, 0-5) haven't beaten the Sooners at home in 22 meetings, with their last win coming in 1960.

Iowa State comes into the contest just five days after a 31-26 home loss to Kansas State. The Cyclones are 10-3 in their last 13 Thursday night games. The first night game at Jack Trice Stadium was on Oct. 20, 1984 and Iowa State nearly pulled off the upset, falling to No. 2 Oklahoma, 12-10, on ESPN.

Iowa State, which has lost four consecutive games since a 44-10 nonconference win over San Jose State on Sept. 24, will have to find a way to slow down an Oklahoma offense that ranks fifth nationally in scoring (45.4) and third in total offense (568.0) to have a chance at pulling the upset.

Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield, who threw for 342 yards and three touchdowns in a 52-16 win over the Cyclones last year in Norman, has thrown 27 touchdown passes compared to just five interceptions and leads the nation in passing efficiency (195.8) while senior wide receiver Dede Westbrook has had more receiving yards in the last five games (881) than all but 11 FBS players have had in their entire seasons.

Sophomore running back Joe Mixon, who leads the Big 12 and is third nationally with 195.4 all-purpose yards per game, will not play in the game after Stoops announced Tuesday night his top back was suspended. That puts Abdul Adams and Devin Montgomery in line for a bigger workload.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 10
By Bruce Marshall

Thursday, November 3

BUFFALO at OHIO... Home team has won and covered easily last three meetings. Note road team has covered last nine Ohio reg.-season games! Leipold 3-10 last 13 on board, also has dropped seven straight vs. line as visitor. Lots of conflicting trends here.

Slight to Ohio, based on recent Buff woes.


ARKANSAS STATE at GEORGIA STATE...Road team has covered last 3 in series. Though Red Wolves no covers last three away from Jonesboro. GSU has covered last six TY and is 12-2-1 last 15 reg.-season games vs. line, 11-3-1 last 14 as dog.

GSU, based on recent trends.


OKLAHOMA at IOWA STATE...Stoops has crushed last four with wins and covers in each and Cyclones have lost 8 in a row SU vs. Sooners (last ISU win in 2005). But ISU has covered 5 of last 6 TY and is 4-2 as dog, Matt Campbell 14-8 as dog in his career. OU 1-4 last five as chalk away from Norman.

Iowa State, based on recent trends.


UCLA at COLORADO... MacIntyre 8-0 vs. spread TY, now on 13-2 spread uptick since mid 2015. MacIntyre also 3-0 vs. line against Mora since taking over Buffs in 2013. Buffs 14-3 vs. points last 17 at Boulder. More on 2-8 spread skid since late 2015.

Colorado, based on team and series trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Bruins (3-5) at Buffaloes (6-2)

Date: November 03, 2016 9:00 PM EDT

Colorado controls its destiny in the Pac-12 South Division.

After Utah lost to Washington while the Buffaloes enjoyed a bye week, 21st-ranked Colorado (6-2, 4-1) is alone in first place in the South heading into Thursday night's home game against UCLA, starting at 9 p.m. ET.

UCLA (3-5, 1-4) was the preseason pick of the league's media to win the division, but the Bruins have struggled in the run game and likely will be without starting quarterback Josh Rosen for a third consecutive game because of a nerve problem in his throwing shoulder.

With a win, the surprising Buffaloes will match their conference victory total from their first five seasons in the league combined.

  Colorado already has accomplished one goal by qualifying for a bowl game for the first time since 2007, but bigger prizes are within reach.

"They've got everything in front of them they've always dreamed of, and they've worked so hard to get here, they don't take it for granted," said Colorado coach Mike MacIntyre. "It's not like it's a common occurrence. ... These guys will stay on each other, which is awesome."

Colorado, which is coming off a 10-5 victory over Stanford on Oct. 22, has three of its final four games at home. Utah and USC, both 4-2 in the conference, are the only realistic challengers to the Buffaloes. Every other team in the South has at least four league losses.

Colorado has great balance. Senior quarterback Sefo Liufau directs an offense that is 19th nationally with 495.8 yards per game. The running game has been strong; the Buffs have rushed for 247, 260, 260, 263, 315 and 224 yards in their six victories, while being held to 64 and 96 in their two losses.

The Buffs defense is 12th nationally, allowing 307.8 yards per game.

UCLA, meanwhile, is trying to find balance after basically abandoning the run game in its most recent game, a 52-45 loss to Utah. The Bruins' running backs carried just 10 times while quarterback Mike Fafaul attempted 70 passes.

"We're always grinding," said offensive coordinator Kennedy Polamalu.

"We've simplified the task, and I really believe with the young men we have all the way around -- from the linemen, tight ends, receivers and the runners -- we're getting better. I really want balance to help our quarterback."

It's not like UCLA doesn't have talent at running back.

Sophomore Soso Jamabo was arguably the top running back prospect in the 2015 class. Nate Starks was a four-star recruit. Bolu Olorunfunmi has done some nice things.

But Jamabo and Starks have each been slowed by injuries a various times, including against Utah. UCLA's top three running backs have rarely been available/healthy at the same time this season.

The Bruins are last nationally in rushing at 85.5 yards per game.

Still, UCLA hasn't been far off this season, losing its five games by a combined 32 points.

"We haven't won, but we haven't been blown out," said Bruins coach Jim Mora. "Our guys fight. They are a bunch of fighters. I really respect that about them."

Fafaul, a fifth-year senior and former walk-on, completed 40 of 70 passes for 464 yards, with five touchdowns and four interceptions, in the loss to Utah on Oct. 22. His focus in practice has been efficiency -- not forcing anything. Fafaul has thrown eight interceptions in 122 pass attempts.

Colorado ranks second in the Pac-12 with 11 interceptions. Cornerback Tedrick Thompson has four of them. The other corner, Chidobe Awuzie, is a potential mid-round draft pick, according to NFLDraftScout.com.

The Buffaloes have held two of five conference foes without a touchdown this season.

Liufau, who missed three starts this season because of an ankle injury, has taken every snap in the past two games. He is riding a school-record streak of 148 consecutive passes without an interception.

Colorado running back Phillip Lindsay is third in the conference with 93.1 rushing yards per game. He has rushed for 350 yards in his past two outings.

"To be able to just watch our running backs break big runs, I know I don't have to do as much," Liufau said. "I don't have to go out there and think that I have to make play after play after play just to keep us in a game."

UCLA's run defense has been good at times this season, but the Bruins allowed Utah's Joe Williams to run wild for 332 yards.

The Bruins have won all five meetings with Colorado in conference play, but the past two were decided by four and three points.

"I think they have been making steady progress with Coach Mac," Mora said. "The last two years, they have been great games. We kind of squeaked them out."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Thursday’s games

Buffalo is 0-3 as a road underdog this year, outscored 117-24 in those games- they’re 4-9 in last 13 games as a road dog. Home side won last six Buffalo-Ohio games; Bulls lost last three visits here, by 23-7-17 points. Underdogs covered six of last nine series games. Ohio won five of last six games but is 0-3 vs spread as a home favorite this year, after being 6-2 last two years. Buffalo is 2-6 but upset Akron LW; four of Bulls’ last five losses are by 24+ points. Ohio ran ball for 477 yards in its last two games. MAC home favorites are 4-13 vs spread this spread.

Arkansas State won last three games with Georgia State: 48-34/35-33 at home, 52-10 in last visit here, two years ago. ASU ran ball for 680 yards in last two meetings- they’ve won three games in row after an 0-4 start, winning by 1-10-41 points- they also had two bye weeks in there since the 0-4 start. This is Red Wolves’ first road game since 34-20 loss at Utah State Sept 16; they’re 10-5 in last 15 games as a road favorite. Georgia State is 2-6 but covered its last five lined games; they’re 2-5-1 in last eight games as a home dog. Sun Belt home dogs are 4-4.

Oklahoma won its last 12 games with Iowa State, covering nine of last 11; Cyclones scored 16 or less points in all 12 games. Sooners covered four of last five visits to Ames. Oklahoma gained 684-751 yards vs ISU last two years. Iowa State is 0-4 in Big X but covered three of four games, losing by 3-7-21-5 points; Cyclones are 2-0 as home dogs this year after being 11-14-1 under the previous coach. Oklahoma scored 49.4 pts/game in winning its last five games after a 1-2 start; Sooners won 52-46/66-59 in their two true road games this year- they also lost at Houston, but that game was NRG Stadium, not the Cougars’ stadium.

Colorado is 7-0 vs spread this year, only perfect spread record in country; they won both Pac-12 home games, 47-6/40-16, are now 8-0 as a home favorite under MacIntyre. UCLA won its last five games with Colorado; Bruins were double digit favorite in all five games- they’re a double digit dog here and QB Rosen is out for year. UCLA won 40-37/42-14 in last two visits to Boulder. Despite losing to Bruins last two years, Colorado did gain 554-500 TY in those games. UCLA lost four of last five games, losing last three by 3-6-7 points- they’re 6-5 as home dogs under Mora, 1-1 this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Opening Line Report - Week 9
By Marcus DiNitto

Here’s a game-by-game look the early point spreads for the NFL’s Week 9 betting card, with insight from two Las Vegas oddsmakers – CG Technology vice president of risk Jason Simbal and Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook manager Ed Salmons.

The numbers listed are the Las Vegas consensus as of about 11:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, with early line moves and differences among sports books noted.

Thursday , Nov. 3

Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs have won the last three meetings in this series, including at Atlanta in Week 1 this season. That didn’t stop oddsmakers from posting the Falcons as the road favorites and early bettors from laying the points. CG Technology opened Atlanta -2, moved on air from -2.5 minutes later, and then to -3 after taking a bet on the chalk.

“We have a few guys each week who try to hit the early numbers if they think they’re off, and this was one of those guys,” Simbal said of the wager.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's Top Action

NFL Week 9 Thursday Night Football Betting Preview
Atlanta Falcons (5-3 SU; 5-3 ATS) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4 SU; 3-4 ATS)

Odds: Atlanta (-4); Total set at 51.5

The NFC South leading Atlanta Falcons kick off Week 9 of the NFL season with the hopes of avenging their lone loss within division play as they head to Tampa to play the Bucs. Tampa Bay went into Atlanta in Week 1 and came away with a 31-24 victory as small road underdogs and that didn't sit well with the Falcons at all.

Since then, Atlanta has played a top tier brand of football this year and it's not hard to make a case that they shouldn't have lost a game since then. But with the NFC South getting tighter and tighter each week, this is a critical game for both sides.

The Falcons currently have the best offense in the league in terms of yards per game (425.2) and points scored per game at 32.8. That's a lethal combination for opposing defenses to try and slow down and the fact that the Falcons have put up 30 or more points in five of their seven games since that Week 1 to Tampa has to be concerning to Bucs fans.

Tampa Bay's defense is a bottom tier unit in both yards allowed per game (390) and points allowed per game (27), so on paper it looks like the Falcons will easily be able to get their revenge.

However, we've seen quite a few sloppy football games this year on TNF as the short week of rest and prep time definitely appears to have some sort of effect on teams and I wouldn't be so quick to rule that out as the case here.

In Tampa's three wins this year it's been their defensive play that's taken center stage. They've allowed 24, 17 and 14 points in their three victories, compared to giving up 30, 27, 37, and 40 in their four losses.

For all the headlines and love that offensive players like QB Jameis Winston and WR Mike Evans get in the media, internally, the Bucs know that the success of their team depends heavily on how well their defense plays on a given day. That unit was able to do enough to keep the Falcons in check in Week 1, but that was also before Atlanta's offense really got on this roll and this week will bring a whole different set of challenges for Tampa Bay.

However, don't be surprised to see Tampa rise up to the challenge as all three of their victories have come when they went into the game as underdogs like they are this week. Atlanta's defense has had plenty of their own issues this year having allowed 30+ points five times already – a fact largely covered up by how well their offense has played.

Winston and company were the first to put up 30+ on the Falcons this year and with this time being at home, I do expect the Bucs to have some success. Yet, while I do lean on grabbing the points with the home underdog on the side, it's this total that looks to be the better play.

As I mentioned earlier, TNF games are no strangers to sloppy football and this game won't be immune. Already nearly 70% of the money on this total has come in on the high side of this number as we've got two teams that statistically allow plenty of points, and one (Atlanta) that's the highest scoring team in the league.

But this game could get nasty and have a playoff feel to it with Tampa's hopes of a division title likely hanging in the balance, and going against the grain, I believe these two defenses will show up much better than the majority believe.

Four of the last five meetings in Tampa Bay between these two have cashed 'under' tickets, and the Falcons are on a 5-12-1 O/U run in their last 18 away from home. Atlanta is also 3-10 O/U after allowing 30+ points and have got a 3-9-1 O/U run going in division games, while Tampa is on a 3-8 O/U run in division games themselves.

Even with a short week to prep, the talk in both organizations is that their defensive play as to get much better and we could see that start this week. The total currently has that nice hook on a key number of “51” for 'under' players and that's how I see this game ending up.

Best Bet: Atlanta/Tampa Bay Under 51.5 points

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's Top Action

NFL Week 9 Thursday Night Football Betting Preview
Atlanta Falcons (5-3 SU; 5-3 ATS) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4 SU; 3-4 ATS)

Odds: Atlanta (-4); Total set at 51.5

The NFC South leading Atlanta Falcons kick off Week 9 of the NFL season with the hopes of avenging their lone loss within division play as they head to Tampa to play the Bucs. Tampa Bay went into Atlanta in Week 1 and came away with a 31-24 victory as small road underdogs and that didn't sit well with the Falcons at all.

Since then, Atlanta has played a top tier brand of football this year and it's not hard to make a case that they shouldn't have lost a game since then. But with the NFC South getting tighter and tighter each week, this is a critical game for both sides.

The Falcons currently have the best offense in the league in terms of yards per game (425.2) and points scored per game at 32.8. That's a lethal combination for opposing defenses to try and slow down and the fact that the Falcons have put up 30 or more points in five of their seven games since that Week 1 to Tampa has to be concerning to Bucs fans.

Tampa Bay's defense is a bottom tier unit in both yards allowed per game (390) and points allowed per game (27), so on paper it looks like the Falcons will easily be able to get their revenge.

However, we've seen quite a few sloppy football games this year on TNF as the short week of rest and prep time definitely appears to have some sort of effect on teams and I wouldn't be so quick to rule that out as the case here.

In Tampa's three wins this year it's been their defensive play that's taken center stage. They've allowed 24, 17 and 14 points in their three victories, compared to giving up 30, 27, 37, and 40 in their four losses.

For all the headlines and love that offensive players like QB Jameis Winston and WR Mike Evans get in the media, internally, the Bucs know that the success of their team depends heavily on how well their defense plays on a given day. That unit was able to do enough to keep the Falcons in check in Week 1, but that was also before Atlanta's offense really got on this roll and this week will bring a whole different set of challenges for Tampa Bay.

However, don't be surprised to see Tampa rise up to the challenge as all three of their victories have come when they went into the game as underdogs like they are this week. Atlanta's defense has had plenty of their own issues this year having allowed 30+ points five times already – a fact largely covered up by how well their offense has played.

Winston and company were the first to put up 30+ on the Falcons this year and with this time being at home, I do expect the Bucs to have some success. Yet, while I do lean on grabbing the points with the home underdog on the side, it's this total that looks to be the better play.

As I mentioned earlier, TNF games are no strangers to sloppy football and this game won't be immune. Already nearly 70% of the money on this total has come in on the high side of this number as we've got two teams that statistically allow plenty of points, and one (Atlanta) that's the highest scoring team in the league.

But this game could get nasty and have a playoff feel to it with Tampa's hopes of a division title likely hanging in the balance, and going against the grain, I believe these two defenses will show up much better than the majority believe.

Four of the last five meetings in Tampa Bay between these two have cashed 'under' tickets, and the Falcons are on a 5-12-1 O/U run in their last 18 away from home. Atlanta is also 3-10 O/U after allowing 30+ points and have got a 3-9-1 O/U run going in division games, while Tampa is on a 3-8 O/U run in division games themselves.

Even with a short week to prep, the talk in both organizations is that their defensive play as to get much better and we could see that start this week. The total currently has that nice hook on a key number of “51” for 'under' players and that's how I see this game ending up.

Best Bet: Atlanta/Tampa Bay Under 51.5 points

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 9 NFL

Thursday Game

Falcons (5-3) @ Buccaneers (3-4)— Underdogs are 20-3 vs spread in Atlanta games since Quinn has been their coach. Over is 7-1 in their games this year; road teams covered seven of eight games. Falcons are 3-1 on road (4-0 vs spread) but were dogs in all four. Bucs are 0-3 at home this year after 30-24 OT loss to Oakland; Raiders ran 85 plays for 626 yards, averaged 8.2 ypa. Tampa allowed 24 or less points in its wins, 27+ in its losses. Tampa Bay had three TD plays of 23+ yards in 31-24 win (+3) in season opener in Atlanta; Winston averaged 8.5 yds/pass attempt. Bucs won last three series games, by 3-4-7 points; LY was their first series sweep since ’07. Falcons are 4-3 in last seven visits here. Underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in NFC South divisional games so far this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Falcons (5-3) at Buccaneers (3-4)

Date: November 03, 2016 8:25 PM EDT

TAMPA, Fla. -- When Tampa Bay opened the season with a 31-24 road victory over the Atlanta Falcons, it was a promising start to Dirk Koetter's head coaching career against a team he and Buccaneers defensive coordinator Mike Smith coached together.

But as the rematch approaches Thursday night at Raymond James Stadium, much has changed as the Buccaneers find themselves considerably short-handed as they try to stop a Falcons' offense that has established itself as the NFL's best.

"I think they're playing with more confidence, and you would expect that: They won some big games," Koetter said.

The Falcons (5-3) have the NFC South lead and quarterback Matt Ryan leads the NFL in touchdown passes (19) and passing yards (2,636), having thrown scoring passes to an NFL-best 10 different players. The biggest challenge will be containing receiver Julio Jones, who went off for 300 yards in a victory against Carolina this season, but the Buccaneers held him to 66 yards in the first meeting. Jones has been slowed by a knee injury, but the Bucs fully expect to face him.

"Julio Jones is going to play," said Smith, his coach in Atlanta until last year. "He is obviously one of the top three receivers in the league. There's no doubt about that. Maybe No. 1. I think he's probably one of the toughest guys to defend."

The Bucs won't have nearly the same offensive lineup they had around quarterback Jameis Winston in the first meeting. Doug Martin and Charles Sims, the team's top two running backs, are injured as is No. 2 receiver Vincent Jackson, and tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins, who caught a 30-yard touchdown against the Falcons, has since been arrested on a DUI charge and waived.

As if losing their top two backs wasn't enough, the Bucs are expected to be without former Falcons back Jacquizz Rodgers, who had filled in admirably with back-to-back 100-yard games before getting injured Sunday in a loss to the Raiders.

Now the Bucs move forward with three backs all signed off the street since the start of the season -- former Falcons back Antone Smith, who has never had more than four carries in a game; rookie Peyton Barber, who played only three offensive snaps in Sunday's loss; and Mike James, who was signed Tuesday after being waived-injured by the Bucs in Week 1, days before the first Falcons game.

The quick turnaround to a Thursday game is tough enough, but the Bucs are coming off an overtime loss to Oakland that saw their defense on the field for 94 snaps. The Raiders piled up 626 yards of total offense, including a franchise-record 512 passing by Derek Carr, whose fourth touchdown won the game late in overtime.

Atlanta, too, had their game Sunday come down to the wire as Mohamed Sanu caught the game-winning touchdown in a win over the Packers, so both teams will be physically spent entering the game.

"Our last three weeks, all the games have come right down to the end," coach Dan Quinn said Tuesday. "We had some disappointing finishes where we thought we had a chance to finish and we didn't, then in this game where we did. We're glad we had another opportunity to try to finish ... we've got work to do, but we're pleased we were able to finish it this past one."

If the Bucs (3-4) win, they'll have the season sweep of the Falcons and be a half-game out of first and even in losses with the Falcons. They'll need to play much better defensively than they did against Oakland, while facing the NFL's top passer, but Tampa Bay has won three straight against Atlanta -- all since Winston took over as quarterback last season.

Both teams will enjoy the longer break after Thursday's game with the Bucs staying home to face the Bears in Week 10, while the Falcons go to the Eagles next weekend before finally getting their open date.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

TNF - Falcons at Bucs
By Tony Mejia

Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-4, 51), 8:25 pm ET, NFLN

Jameis Winston has won all three of his starts against the Falcons, so considering he’s 6-14 in his starts against the rest of the league, you might say the second-year quarterback has their number. He’s accounted for eight scores, six through three air and a pair with his legs, in the victories. His best game of the season came against them.
The top pick of the 2015 draft has been a tease of sorts, displaying his marvelous talent in flashes that have been frustratingly alternated with bouts of inconsistency.

Fortunately for Winston, Atlanta is back on the schedule, just before a halfway point in a season that could go either way for Tampa Bay. He opened the season by firing four touchdown passes against the Falcons, then threw four interceptions the very next week at Arizona to begin a three-game losing streak. He’s only 22 years old, so by no means can you get carried away and call this a crossroads, but as far as this season is concerned, he could steer his team in the right direction by turning the corner at exactly this moment.
Coming off an average game in an OT loss to Oakland where he took what the defense gave him for three quarters and then bombed in the fourth and overtime, Winston will try and play to his strengths at home by continuing to own Atlanta head coach Dan Quinn and defensive coordinator Richard Smith. He leads the NFL in passer rating (136.7) on play action passes per Pro Football Focus, but is second-worst on drop-backs. As was the case at Florida State, he typically saves his best for last, playing best in the second half, where he’s thrown eight touchdowns against just two picks. The Bucs want him engaged and reacting, thinking on his feet as opposed to sitting back and trusting an offensive line that’s gotten him hit more than any other starter in the league.
The Falcons pulled off a 33-32 comeback win over Green Bay on Sunday by harassing Aaron Rodgers on third down and are looking to get after Winston despite the absence of Dwight Freeney, so it’s going to be on Winston to keep his team out of situations that can be taken advantage of. Getting the ball out quickly has been emphasized in practice this short week.
For Atlanta, a win here would allow it to take the NFC South by the throat, going up 2.5 games up on the Bucs and avoiding a situation where they would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker. New Orleans, suddenly rejuvenated, are at San Francisco this weekend and may also make up ground. Considering what happened to Quinn’s group in his first season with the Falcons, when a 6-1 start ended 8-8 and without a playoff appearance, picking up a win here and restoring a healthy cushion would be invaluable.
Matt Ryan has to be sick of hearing he got outplayed by young Winston, especially since his output hasn’t been terrible. He threw for 397 yards against Tampa at home last year and opened this season with a 334-yard, two-touchdown effort. He’s enjoyed a terrific 2016, ranking tops in the NFC in QB rating (88.4), just behind Tom Brady (96.4) and Andrew Luck (88.9) thus far. Ryan’s big day against the Packers featured his 32nd career game-winning comeback and put him on the short list of MVP candidates approaching the halfway point. A great effort on the Thursday night stage would only aid that cause. Sportsbooks currently rank him a distant second (+500) behind Brady (+110) in their current future odds.

Atlanta Falcons
Season win total: 7 (Over -130, Under +110)
Odds to win NFC South: 2/5 to 2/7
Odds to win NFC: 15/1 to 8/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 30/1 to 20/1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Season win total: 7 (Over -140, Under +120)
Odds to win NFC South: 4/1 to 9/1
Odds to win NFC: 100/1 to 100/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 200/1 to 200/1

LINE MOVEMENT

Division odds for these rivals opened with both at 7-to-1, went to 8-to-1 entering Week 1 since the Panthers were so heavily favored (4-to-13) but are obviously different (reflected above) now that Carolina has fallen off. If you're bullish on the Bucs, now is the time to get in on that 9-to-1 future. Conference odds were each placed at 40-to-1, while being doubled to 80-to-1 to win the Super Bowl in the preseason and have a considerably different look at the WestgateLV SuperBook now. As far as this matchup is concerned, the advanced line was set at Falcons -2, opened at -3 this week and moved to -4 at most books as of Thursday morning. The total opened at 51 and continues to hover in that range.

INJURY CONCERNS

Falcons RB Tevin Coleman was a force out of the backfield with 95 receiving yards in the first meeting (117 total yards), but has been ruled out with a hamstring injury, leaving a heavier load for starter Devonta Freeman, who was held to a season-low 40 total yards (20 rushing, 20 receiving). TE Jacob Tamme (shoulder) is also out, as is Freeney. Atlanta will have offensive standout Julio Jones and G Andy Levitre available.
Tampa Bay’s starting RB Doug Martin (96 total yards in Week 1) hasn’t played since the Falcons game on Sept. 18, while Jacquizz Rodgers, who took over this month and has run for 324 in his last three starts, has been ruled out with a foot injury. Veteran Antone Smith will start, backed by rookie Peyton Barber. DE William Gholston will be out there for the Bucs.

RECENT MEETINGS (Tampa Bay 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS last five; UNDER 3-2)

9/11/16 Tampa Bay 31-24 at Atlanta (ATL -2.5, 47)
12/6/15 Tampa Bay 23-19 vs. Atlanta (TB -1, 46.5)
11/1/15 Tampa Bay 23-20 at Atlanta (ATL -8, 47.5)
11/9/14 Atlanta 27-17 at Tampa Bay (ATL -3, 47.5)
9/18/14 Atlanta 56-14 vs. Tampa Bay (ATL -6.5, 47)

PROPS

Of the props available below at the WestgateLV Superbook, I'd ride that Winston pass completion prop going over in addition to Mike Evans yardage.

Jameis Winston completions 21: (-110 o/u)
Matt Ryan passing yards 312.5: (-110 o/u)
Mike Evans receiving yards 85.5: (-110 o/u)
Julio Jones receiving yards 95.5: (-110 o/u)
Jameis Winston TD passes 1.5: (-135 over, +115 under)
Matt Ryan TD Passes 2: (-150 over, +130 under)
Total combined sacks 4.5: (+105 over, -125 under)
First score of game will be: (-190 TD, +170 other)
Total points: Falcons 27.5, Bucs 24 (-110 o/u)

FALCONS AS A ROAD FAVORITE

The Falcons are playing this role for the first time this season but are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS getting points on the road, so they've earned this respect. They were 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS as a road favorite last year.

BUCS AS A HOME UNDERDOG

Tampa Bay was a pick'em at home in Sunday's OT loss against Oakland and were handled 27-7 by Denver on Oct. 2 so we'll see how they fare as a home dog here. In ’15, the Bucs were just 1-2 SU and ATS as a home favorite and have notoriously been terrible at Raymond James Stadium, which allowed them to pick high enough to land Winston.

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 10 has the Falcons as 2.5-point underdogs in Philadelphia. The Bucs are back at home and have been placed as a 3-point favorite against Chicago.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday Night Football betting preview: Falcons at Buccaneers

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5, 51)

The Atlanta Falcons may own the NFL's top-ranked offense and reside on top of the NFC South, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had their number with Jameis Winston under center. The former Heisman Trophy recipient will look to guide the Buccaneers to their second series sweep of the Falcons in as many seasons on Thursday night as the division rivals clash at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla.

Winston tossed four touchdown passes in a 31-24 season-opening victory over Atlanta on Sept. 11 and added two more in a 30-24 overtime loss to Oakland on Sunday. Trusted target Mike Evans reeled in a scoring strike against the Falcons and his six touchdown receptions are tied for the NFL lead.

Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan continued his stellar season with three touchdown passes in Sunday's 33-32 victory over Green Bay, capping his 32nd career game-winning drive with an 11-yard scoring strike to offseason acquisition Mohamed Sanu. Ryan, who leads the league in both yards (2,636) and touchdowns (19), has thrown for 1,000 yards and five scores in his last three encounters with Tampa Bay and faces a Buccaneers defense that ranks 23rd in the league (274.7 yards per contest).

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: The Falcons opened as field goal road favorites and that jumped to -3.5. The total has dropped from 51.5 to 51.

WEATHER: The forecast for Raymond James Stadium is calling for partially cloudy skied with temperatures in the mid 70's with winds blowing NNE at 5 mph.

INJURIES: Falcons - DE D. Freeney (questionable), DT. G. Jarrett (questionable), G A. Levitre (questionable), S B. Poole (questionable), T. Coleman (doubtful), TE J. Tamme (out). Bucs - DT C. MacDonald (questionable), RB J. Rodgers (questionable), WR R. Shepard (questionable), DE W. Gholston (questionable), RB D. Martin (out).

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Having opened at three, and almost immediately moving to 3.5, it’s clear that everyone has been on Atlanta from the start for Thursday night’s matchup against the Bucs. Right now 70 percent of the action is on the Falcons, and I would be surprised if the line doesn’t get up to at least Atlanta -4." - Mick Sloan

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "At 2-5, even the Carolina Panthers have a mathematical shot at winning the NFC South. Atlanta is 5-2 and the Bucs are 3-4, making Thursday's contest an extremely important one. Tampa Bay won 31-24 in Atlanta in their respective openers, so it's interesting to note that the Falcons are 8-6 ATS in their last 14 in trying to avenge a loss versus an opponent." - AAA Sports.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (5-3, 5-3 ATS): Julio Jones has amassed an NFC-best 859 yards and is averaging 20.0 yards per catch, but the electric wideout was hobbled by an ailing knee and finished with 29 yards receiving for the second time this season. While Jones is expected to play on Thursday, running back Tevin Coleman (hamstring) is listed as questionable after sitting out last week's tilt versus the Packers. Devonta Freeman more than picked up the slack with a rushing and receiving touchdown last week and has 100-plus scrimmage yards in two of his last three contests, although he was limited to just 20 yards on 11 carries in the season-opening loss.

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (3-4, 3-4 ATS): While Tampa Bay's passing game is pretty well defined, the backfield has remained in motion through most of the season due to injury. Jacquizz Rodgers filled in admirably for Doug Martin (hamstring) before sustaining a sprained foot versus the Raiders, perhaps opening the door for a three-man backfield of Antone Smith, Peyton Barber and Mike James. Linebacker Kwon Alexander recorded 14 tackles versus Oakland last week, his highest total since collecting 17 in the season opener at Atlanta.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Tampa Bay.
* Favorite is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
* Falcons are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Tampa Bay.

CONSENSUS: 76 percent of bets are on Atlanta while 73 percent of totals bets are on the Over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free NFL Picks: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds & Predictions
by Alan Matthews

I'm just going to pretend that last Thursday's game between the Jaguars and Titans didn't happen, even though I was right on my spread pick , because that was pretty darn unwatchable -- and not just because of the garish uniforms. I actually think NFL ratings will pick up soon because the MLB playoffs will be over by Wednesday night at the latest and the presidential election will come to a merciful conclusion next Tuesday.

This Thursday's game is actually fairly interesting as Atlanta (5-3) visits Tampa Bay (3-4) in a potentially important NFC South matchup. That division is totally up for grabs, especially if Bucs win here, and I wouldn't even rule out Carolina (2-5) winning it for a fourth straight year. The Panthers were heavy preseason favorites to do so, but now Atlanta is the -275. The Falcons already own wins over Carolina and New Orleans (3-4) but lost in Week 1 to Tampa Bay 31-24, so a Bucs victory here obviously would give them the head-to-head tiebreaker.

In that opening game, Tampa's Jameis Winston threw for 281 yards and four touchdowns, all to different receivers. Kwon Alexander was a beast defensively with 17 tackles (15 solo), two tackles for loss and a sack. Atlanta actually had a slight statistical edge. Matt Ryan threw for 334 yards with two touchdowns and his team didn't turn the ball over. Tampa Bay has won three straight in the series --- first time this decade -- after two close victories last year.

Falcons at Bucs Betting Story Lines

Atlanta played in one of the highest-scoring games of Week 8 and beat visiting Green Bay 33-32 on a Ryan to Mohamed Sanu 11-yard touchdown pass with 31 seconds left. It was Ryan's third career game-winning touchdown pass in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter. If not for Tom Brady, Ryan would be your likely MVP favorite right now as he leads the NFL in passing yards (2,636) and TDs (19) and is second in rating (115.8) and third in completions (69.2 percent).

Ryan didn't have running back Tevin Coleman against the Packers due to a hamstring injury, and he won't play here. Coleman has six TDs on the season and is a terrific change-of-pace to starter Devonta Freeman and good pass-catcher. Top Falcons tight end Jacob Tamme left early against Green Bay with a shoulder injury and won't play here. Rookie Austin Hooper will get the start. The Falcons still lead the league in total (425.3 ypg) and scoring (32.8 ppg) offense.

I honestly didn't have much faith that mediocre Falcons defense would prevent Aaron Rodgers from driving the Packers into field-goal range after Ryan's TD pass, but Green Bay went four-and-out. And I still think that defense is why Atlanta won't win the NFC. It allows 379.3 yards and 28.9 points per game.

Tampa Bay lost at home to Oakland 30-24 in overtime in Week 8 as the Bucs allowed David Carr to have one of the best days of any quarterback in league annals. How do you lose a game where the opponent is penalized a record 23 times for 200 yards? I'll tell you how: by committing a defensive holding penalty when Oakland had been stopped on fourth down inside the Tampa Bay 10 with less than two minutes left in regulation. That led to the Raiders tying the game.

Winston as 16-for-32 for 180 yards and two TDs. Jacquizz Rodgers continued his career resurgence with 19 carries for 69 yards and a touchdown. He has been amazing the past three games with Doug Martin still out, but Rodgers sprained his foot and is likely out Thursday. Martin still is too with his hammy, so you are looking at a no-name committee back there. So Winston likely will need to have a huge game to pull the minor upset.

The Bucs' defense, coordinated by former Falcons head coach Mike Smith, hasn't been much better than Atlanta's in allowing 27 points per game. Against the Raiders, the Bucs' defense was on the field for a total of 44 minutes and 85 plays. So that unit might be totally gassed still on Thursday. The 356 total yards differential between the Bucs (270 yards offense) and Raiders (626 total offense) Sunday was the most in the NFL this season.

Falcons at Bucs Betting Odds and Trends

Atlanta is a 3-point favorite (-130) with a total of 51. On the moneyline, the Falcons are -185 and the Bucs +160. On the alternate lines, Atlanta is -3.5 (-105) and -4 (+103). The Falcons are 5-3 against the spread (4-0 on road) and 7-1 "over/under" (3-1 on road). Tampa Bay is 3-4 ATS (0-3 at home) and 4-3 O/U (2-1 at home).

Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its past six Thursday games. It is 3-8 ATS in its past 11 vs. teams with a losing record. The Falcons are 2-10 ATS in their past 12 following an ATS loss. Tampa is 7-3 ATS in its past 10 vs. the NFC South. The Bucs are 1-5 ATS in their past six on Thursday. The over is 5-0 in the Falcons' past five vs. the NFC. The over is 5-2 in Tampa's past seven after a loss. The favorite is 8-3-1 ATS in the past 12 meetings.

Falcons at Bucs Betting Prediction

This is one of the tougher Thursday games to handicap in my opinion. But that's largely because most of the other one were mismatches. All things equal, I tend to lean the home team in these quick-turnaround games. But Tampa is also winless at home and just played a marathon game in the heat. Give the 3 points and go over the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 9 NFL

Thursday Game

Falcons (5-3) @ Buccaneers (3-4)— Underdogs are 20-3 vs spread in Atlanta games since Quinn has been their coach. Over is 7-1 in their games this year; road teams covered seven of eight games. Falcons are 3-1 on road (4-0 vs spread) but were dogs in all four. Bucs are 0-3 at home this year after 30-24 OT loss to Oakland; Raiders ran 85 plays for 626 yards, averaged 8.2 ypa. Tampa allowed 24 or less points in its wins, 27+ in its losses. Tampa Bay had three TD plays of 23+ yards in 31-24 win (+3) in season opener in Atlanta; Winston averaged 8.5 yds/pass attempt. Bucs won last three series games, by 3-4-7 points; LY was their first series sweep since ’07. Falcons are 4-3 in last seven visits here. Underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in NFC South divisional games so far this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 9
By Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Nov. 3

ATLANTA at TAMPA BAY (NFL Network, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Falcs "over" 7-1 this season including opening loss at home vs. Bucs. TB has won and covered last three meetings. Falcs 4-0 vs. line away this season, Bucs 0-3 at home TY and 5-15 last 20 vs. spread at Raymond James.
Tech Edge: Falcons and "over," based on team and 'totals" trends.