Thursday 11/20/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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'Thursday Night Football'

In this weeks Thursday Night'r the Kansas City Chiefs can record their sixth consecutive victory by sending the Oakland Raiders to a 17th straight defeat when the two collide in an AFC West matchup. Chiefs sporting the leagues second best scoring defense at 17.1 points/game facing Oakland, easily the worst offensive team in the league averaging 15.2 points/contest it's almost a foregone conclusion Kansas City will win this match-up. Division games are always tough, spotting road points within the division is dangerous and doing so on a short turnaround can be perilous. However, in this case the numbers add up well enough to conclude Chiefs keep peddle-to-mettle covering the 7.5 points of extra offense they're giving Raiders. The Chiefs have cashed five straight as regular season road chalk, have made a habit of cashing when visiting Oakland (9-2 ATS), Raiders have struggled cashing at home over it's current 0-16 losing streak (1-7 ATS).

 

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NFL Football: ATS Betting Report

Doggy-Dog world of NFL!!
Although sports bettors taking points this past week enjoyed a profitable 10-4 record against the betting line, backing underdogs has not been great overall this season as underdogs are 77-80-4 against the betting line after eleven weeks of action.

Breaking down the numbers, home dogs are 24-25-2 ATS with road pouches 53-55-2 against-the-oddsmaker. A further breakdown tells us pups of 3.5 or less are 35-38-2 ATS split between 13-16-2 at home, 22-22 on the road. Underdogs of 4 to 6.5 are 23-21 ATS with homies 8-4, roadies 15-17. Dogs in the 7 to 9.5 point range come in at 12-15 ATS with home teams a vig-losing 3-3, road teams 9-12-1. Double-Digit home dogs come in 0-2 ATS, the traveling K-9's 7-4-1 against-the-number.

As the numbers show, all dogs are not the same and in sports betting just like in your own neighbourhood it's always a good idea to find out which dogs are 'All Bark No Bite' which have 'Lots Of Bite'

WHAT-2-WATCH-4 - In your search for dogs with 'Lot's Of Bite' - Home Dogs off a road favorite loss are a perfect 6-0 ATS the past two seasons - Patriots pulled off the deed in 2014 losing 41-14 at KC as a 3 point road favorite then bounced back the next week as a 2.5 point home dog knocking off Bengals 43-17.

WHAT-2-WATCH-4 - In avoiding dogs that are 'All Bark No Bite' - Home Dogs off a 21 or more point loss are a cash draining 8-14 ATS L2Y's. - Divisional road dogs off a loss previous effort have drained betting accounts to the tune of 9-14 ATS L2Y's

 

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NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Detroit Lions at New England Patriots November 23, 01:00 EST

Scary good. The New England Patriots running over Colts 42-20 behind Jonas Gray's 38 carries, 199 yards, 4 TD's have now won six consecutive games (5-1 ATS) averaging 40.5 points/game while allowing a stingy 21.3 per/contest. Sitting at a very comfortable 8-2 SU with a 6-4 mark at the betting window it's not difficult making a case for Patriots when they host Detroit Lions. The Patriots are not only 5-0 (3-2 ATS) at home this season the Pats have won 18 of the past 19 regular games at Gillette Stadium (12-7ATS). However, the most compelling numbers in the Patriots’ favor are the figures compiled against NFC North opponents. Patriots haven't lost to an NFC North opponent since 2002 winning twelve straight (8-4 ATS). Another telling football betting stat that leaps out, the Lions have cashed just 5 tickets the past 16 away from Ford Field and have a habit of fumbling in Week-12 (0-6, 1-5 ATS).

 

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NFL Football Trends

NFL Football Betting Trends for Thursday, Nov. 20

Kansas City at Oakland, 8:25 ET
Kansas City: 6-0 ATS off a non-conference game
Oakland: 0-6 ATS in home games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games


NFL Football Betting Trends for Sunday, Nov. 23

Cleveland at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 23-9 UNDER in road games after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game
Atlanta: 2-16 ATS in home games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games

Tennessee at Philadelphia, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 7-18 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points
Philadelphia: 19-7 ATS after a loss by 21 or more points

Detroit at New England, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 2-10 ATS in road games after allowing 50 or less rushing yards last game
New England: 13-4 ATS off 5 or more consecutive overs

Green Bay at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 17-6 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games
Minnesota: 18-6 OVER after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game

Jacksonville at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 13-4 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss against opponent
Indianapolis: 31-54 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games

Cincinnati at Houston, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 9-2 ATS after playing their last game on the road
Houston: 2-10 ATS after playing their last game on the road

NY Jets at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
NY Jets: 36-20 UNDER in road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games
Buffalo: 11-1 ATS off a road loss

Tampa Bay at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 13-4 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points
Chicago: 5-13 ATS against conference opponents

Arizona at Seattle, 4:05 ET
Arizona: 7-0 ATS against conference opponents
Seattle: 18-7 OVER after gaining 200 or more rushing yards last game

St Louis at San Diego, 4:05 ET
St Louis: 8-1 OVER off a non-conference game
San Diego: 55-34 OVER in non-conference games

Miami at Denver, 4:25 ET
Miami: 66-40 UNDER off 2 or more consecutive unders
Denver: 9-0 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game

Washington at San Francisco, 4:25 ET
Washington: 27-50 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse
San Francisco: 11-3 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders

Dallas at NY Giants, 8:30 ET
Dallas: 12-3 ATS in road games after a bye week
NY Giants: 21-8 OVER in home games after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game


NFL Football Betting Trends for Monday, Nov. 24

Baltimore at New Orleans, 8:30 ET
Baltimore: 60-40 UNDER off a home win
New Orleans: 0-8 ATS in home games off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite

 

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NFL

KANSAS CITY (7 - 3) at OAKLAND (0 - 10) - 11/20/2014, 8:25 PM

Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 65-91 ATS (-35.1 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 65-91 ATS (-35.1 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 23-43 ATS (-24.3 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 49-71 ATS (-29.1 Units) off a division game since 1992.
OAKLAND is 116-150 ATS (-49.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OAKLAND is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 2-2 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 2-2 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

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NFL

Trends

KANSAS CITY vs. OAKLAND
Kansas City is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games at home
Oakland is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games at home

 

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#1 Sports

Thursday's free selection: Arizona State Sun Devils - 12 1/2

 

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Mike Wynn

Bonus Play: The Arizona St -12½ Over Loyola-Marymount

 

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Totals4U

Thursday's Free Selection: South Carolina Gamecocks - 13 1/2

 

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Atlantic Sports

Thursday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Syracuse - 5

 

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Platinum Plays

Free Pick: Maryland Terrapins -17 Over Fordham

 

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Golden Dragon Sports

Bonus Play: Michigan -18 College BB

 

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Huddle Up Sports

Free Winner: S Florida +2' College BB

 

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John Anthony Sports

Thursday's Free Selection: Maryland Terrapins - 17

 

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Mr. Vegas

Free Thursday NBA Play from Mr. Vegas: 11/20: Clippers at Miami Over the total.

Both teams are loaded with offense and some suspect defense, especially Miami under the glass. The over is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Miami, as well as 15-5 over the total in the last 20 meetings overall.

 

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Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Thursday 10:05 PM

(67) ANAHEIM DUCKS at (68) VANCOUVER CANUCKS

Take: (67) ANAHEIM DUCKS

Following a spectacular start to the season, things have leveled off somewhat of late for the Ducks. But I see Anaheim being in a good spot to garner a road win tonight as they head to Vancouver.

There’s good news on the injury/illness front for Anaheim. Corey Perry returned to action on Sunday, and they will apparently get Francois Beauchemin back to bolster the blue line tonight. It also looks good for Devante Smith-Pelly, who has been doing a good job for the Ducks in spite of being well under the radar.

Vancouver played at Edmonton last night and managed to come away with a 5-4 win as Ryan Miller raised his career record against the Oilers to an amazing 11-0. But on each of the previous four instances where the Canucks have had to go back to back, Eddie Lack has gotten call on night number two. Lack is an okay goalie, but he’s a downgrade from Miller and the Canucks are only 1-3 when he starts.

I think Vancouver might has one of the more misleading records in the league thus far. They’re really a very average team in numerous categories, and while they’re getting by pretty well, I’m not sure they’re more than a back end of the conference playoff entry, if even that.

The Ducks are having some issues once the game gets past 60 minutes, so they might need to win this in regulation. But they grade out as the superior squad here by a pretty decent margin, and they have a definite scheduling advantage going their way tonight. Freddy Andersen has done stellar work in goal, and while it’s very small sample, he sure seems to like playing against the Canucks.

It’s all about the stats I focus on and the scheduling and those factors nearly all indicate Anaheim as the side tonight. I’ll be looking to play the Ducks tonight as long as the price is right and there’s no bad news on the lineup front.

 

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Jim Feist

Comp NBA Pick for Thursday, November 20, 2014: 7:35 PM

(703) CHICAGO BULLS VS (704) SACRAMENTO KINGS

Take: over the total.

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Thursday, November 20, 2014 is in the NBA contest between the Bulls and Kings in Sacramento. Chicago has a much better offensive punch than in recent years ranked 12th in scoring. They just put 105 points up on the Clippers and the over is 6-2-1 in the Bulls last 9 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Jimmy Butler led six players in double figures with 22 points in a 105-89 win Monday night, helping Chicago improve to 6-0 on the road. Chicago is on a 13-6-1 run over the total. Sacramento is young and likes to run, 11th in the NBA in scoring, second in rebounds. They just scored 100 on New Orleans but allowed 106, so defense is still a problem. Sacramento is on a 6-2 run over the total and this shapes up as an uptempo game. Play the Bulls/Kings over the total.

 

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Red Dog Sports

Arizona Coyotes vs. Dallas Stars

Free pick Arizona +145

Nice value on the road team as Dallas is just 1-5-3-1 at home and Arizona has won two of its last three.

 

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Freddy Wills

Arkansas State vs. Texas State

1* Bonus Play Arkansas State -5.5

Arkansas State is a team that beat Utah State in non-conference and also played Miami and Tennessee. In fact they did not weaken their schedule by playing FCS opponents either. Texas State is still new to the FBS world with 1 of their 5 wins coming against Arkansas PB of the FCS, and the other 4 wins have come against inferior opponents with a record of 8-32. Arkansas State's losses have come against much better opponents. The conference stats also don't lie in this scenario.

Both teams like to let the ball fly a little, but Arkansas State is much more polished with 140QB rating in conference play including 12 TD's to 3 INT's. They'll go up against a defense allowing 130QB rating in conference play which isn't bad, but their own QB play has suffered mightily in conference play at 116 QB rating against a much weaker schedule. Arkansas State's pass defense has been amazing allowing 103 QB rating in conference play and only 4 TD's to 8 INT's. I also love the fact that Arkansas State was a 15 point favorite a week ago at home and lost which gives us a bit of value here.

 

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Scott Spreitzer

North Carolina vs. Duke

Bonus Play North Carolina

I'm recommending a play on North Carolina plus the points over Duke on Thursday night. We went against the Blue Devils last weekend and cashed with Va Tech. We felt Duke was over-valued then and do so again tonight. Duke is one-dimensional on offense, unable to rely on the passing game and the defense can't stop the run, allowing nearly 200 yards rushing per contest. North Carolina QB Marquise Williams can be a nightmare with his ability to escape from trouble. He's passed for more than 2,500 yards this season on 63% passing with 18 TDs. Williams has also rushed for more than 600 yards. He'll keep the Duke defense busy in this one. This is unfamiliar territory in this series for Duke. They aren't used to laying this type of number against the Tar Heels. In fact, Duke was a 5-point underdog last season and pulled out a 27-25 win on a late FG. They won 33-30 as a 10-point underdog in their meeting in 2012. I don't trust them as a 6-point favorite and we'll play against them again this week. I'm grabbing the points with the UNC squad that is still one win away from bowl eligibility with two to go. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.