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DINERO TALKS
Antony Dinero

Marathon Money

It's never easy, but watching as much of the Tip-off Marathon is an annual tradition around these parts. The coffee pot always make an appearance, too, but natural adrenaline often suffices to keep me awake.

The game I like to play in carrying over knowledge from previous seasons and seeing how it translates against early lines is one that can't be missed. Too profitable.

So, yeah, I watched High Point come back on Hawai'i around dawn after putting in my pick after 2:00 p.m. ET. There was some dozing off after my eldest went off to Kindergarten during Iona-Wofford, a loser since the Gaels simply couldn't keep the Terriers from game-changing offensive rebounds. If the java had done the trick after halftime, maybe things could've been different, but probably not.

In all, the majority of games shown on the ESPN family of networks over the course of 29 hours made the cut. A few of the Fox games and some available via internet stream got in the mix. You can see the documented results right here.

Go ahead, Ice Cube, rhyme about how the Lakers beat the Supersonics. It was that type of day.

The marathon began with a split in Florida-Miami since the total came in but I didn't see the Hurricanes coming. It concluded with LSU surviving Texas Tech in OT with a frenzied finish, but failing to hold serve as a home favorite. In between, there were lots of hits and notes I'll share from an eventful period that has come to signal the true start of the college basketball season.

Duke and Kentucky, half of my projected Final Four, cashed rather easily in dominant performances that will be the talk of the basketball world until LeBron James and the Spurs renew acquaintances in Cleveland on Wednesday night. That's how you know college hoops is here. It barges down the door and somehow commands attention. The 2014-15 version was ushered in by two of the big guns. The brand names came through.

The Blue Devils never trailed against Michigan State. Big Blue Nation watched their Wildcats trail Kansas for the final before the first media timeout hit.

Playing his first real competition, Duke freshman center Jahlil Okafor looked every bit the part of No. 1 NBA prospect, showing off true skill around the basket. Justice Winslow has boundless energy, while Tyus Jones is as smooth as advertised. Mike Krzyzewski's latest recruiting class will team with his holdovers to form his deepest team in years, so if you're a Duke hater, you're in for a long season.

John Calipari is already in midseason form selling his current guys and future recruits on the only vision that makes sense for a coach who obsesses constantly about effort and defensive discipline -- platooning. Since he can already land more All-Americans than anyone else, he wants to. The dillemma of how to dole out minutes isn't a daunting one, especially if he can spin it correctly and reap the benefits.

"We don't have subs," Calipari told ESPN's Andy Katz. "We have reinforcements."

Calipari is going to ride the guys who play the hardest and defend with the most vigor, but if he can generate competition for minutes, efforts like the one that held the Jayhawks to 12 second-half points in a 72-40 rout will be within the realm of possibility on any given night. Will Kentucky go undefeated? Probably not.

Is that question laughable after watching what the loaded Wildcats did to the nation's fifth-ranked team? Probably not.

Utah and San Diego State put together an eye-opener in the marathon's sleeper of an elite matchup. Although neither team managed to even hit one-third of their shots, often creating truly ugly stretches of play, if you can appreciate defense and the art of contesting and denying position, you saw two very dangerous potential spoilers. It's rare to see teams bring that type of passion on that side of the ball in the college game, especially this early in a season, but the Utes and Aztecs certainly made an impression in playing to a 53-49 decision. Expect both to be major factors in their respective conferences, though Utah needs Delon Wright to pick up his agression on offense and play to his potential.

Toledo nearly pulled off a massive upset for the mighty MAC, leading VCU in Richmond for much of one of the day's highest-scoring contests. If it weren't for future NCAA all-time steals leader Briante Weber returning to the Rams lineup without much rust and his anticipation skills intact, Shaka Smart may have joined former boss Billy Donovan's as an upset victim. The Rockets still managed to cover, thanks to some clutch 3-point shooting from Julius "Juice" Brown, a lead guard who can play with anybody.

Other teams and players that stood out Tuesday include Xavier, which is averaging 95 points through two impressive victories and has scored a special freshman in Indianapolis product Trevon Bluiett. He averaged over 35 points as a prep last year and won a third state title, so maybe the fact he's shooting 65 percent while averaging 19 points in college shouldn't register as a huge surprise. Get used to hearing about him.

A guard who stood out while watching Quinnipiac and LaSalle via internet stream was new Explorers guard Jordan Price, who started his college career at Auburn. Price actually tied an SEC record with 11 consecutive 3-point makes during his time on the Plains, but looks like a much different, more confident player in his new digs. Since LaSalle badly needs a guy who wants to be the guy, he should be heard from a lot this season as Dr. John Giannini seeks out replacements for departed guards Tyreek Duren, Sam Mills and Tyrone Garland.

Colorado looked like world-beaters in tearing Auburn apart in the second half, capitalizing on Tigers injuries and the altitude edge it carried by mercilessly roughing up the visitors from the SEC, handing Bruce Pearl his first loss. The Buffs came around at an opportune time, right after a disappointing ending to a certain Monday night football game that left behind some bankroll carnage.

Fools Gold?

There's since been plenty of rejuvenation on that front, because this time of year always presents some great opportunities. The NBA even yielded a 4-1 night. If the Hawks had held off the Lakers after erasing a 15-point halftime lead, there might have been a chance at early retirement, but I had some bad karma working against me. It probably wasn't wise to make that crack on Twitter about Nick Young's return moving the line and being a sign of an impending apocalypse. Swaggy P had a nice return, too, surprisingly playing 40 minutes and supplying a significant boost.

For the first time all season, the Hawks lost a home game and the Lakers got on the board with a road win. Guess you can't win them all. You can try to though.
 
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NCAAB

For first week or two, we'll give you what info we have to give on the most interesting games of the day. In my opinion, its way too early to be picking games. These teams had scrimmages but results aren't released, so hard to know whats up until we watch some real games.

Detroit lost 83-66 at Oregon late Monday as part of ESPN marathon, in game that was tied at half. Ducks made just 9-33 from arc; Detroit shot 34% inside arc. Michigan crushed Bucknell in its opener; they lost three starters from LY's 28-9 team, are extremely young now. Titans has three starters back from LY, but this game is a quick turnaround.

SMU has good team, but got whacked 72-56 at Gonzaga late Monday in ESPN's hoop marathon; Mustangs has three starters back from its 27-10 club that lost NIT title game in April. Indiana had rough off-season, with lot of off-court drama; Hoosiers beat couple of stiff teams easily- they've got two starters back from LY's 17-15 team (7-11 in Big 14).

Alabama scored 81 ppg in winning first two games, struggling mightily to beat Western Carolina 80-74 Monday; Tide was 32-42 from line, but just 2-17 from arc. Southern Mississippiu has new coach, five new starters after LY's 29-7 team went 13-3 in C-USA. USM beat South Alabama by 9 Monday, after trailing by ten late in first half.

Arizona State won ugly 49-39 game over Bethune-Cookman Monday, as ASU dumbed down its schedule after losing PG Carson from LY's 21-12 team. Sun Devils added four JC players this year, now have six on their roster. You sign JC kids to contribute now. LMU split couple of home games to start season; their new coach is former Bobcat coach Dunlap.

Texas A&M has four starters back from 18-16 team that went 8-10 in Big X; Aggies hammered a stiff team in their opener, hard to tell what'll happen on neutral court vs Dayton team that also beat a stiff in its only game so far. Flyers lost three starters from 26-11 team that got to Elite 8 in NCAAs- they played in Maui LY, are used to this type of scenario.

New Mexico lost three starters from 27-7 team that went 15-3 in MWC but then laid egg in NCAA's; Lobos won first two games by 24-9 points, outscoring Fullerton 24-2 from line in 67-59 win Sunday. Boston College has three starters back from LY but new coach, new system; they struggled with UNH in opener, then lost 71-62 to UMass Sunday, after they led by 8 at half.

West Virginia has had lot of turnover last couple years; Mountainners are picked to finish 7th in Big X- they allowed average of 55 ppg in beating a couple stiffs to open season, by 10-27 points. George Mason beat Princeton by 3 after losing to Cornell in its opener-- Patriots have three starters back from 11-20 team that went 4-12 in A-14.

USC split its first two home games, beating Tennessee Tech by 12 after awful loss to Portland State in opener; now they make long trip east to Charleston, where they face Akron squad that has four starters back from LY's 21-13 team that was 12-6 in MAC. Zips won first game by 17 over a stiff. UNLV transfer Reinhardt had 19 points for Trojans Monday.

Not much time for Miami to celebrate after they upset Florida 69-67 in Gainesville Monday, after being down 15; senior transfer PG Rodriguez is huge add for Canes- he had 24 vs Gators. Drexel scored 48-49 points in losing first two games, 65-48 at Colorado, 52-49 at home to St Joe's club that was down 48-10 at the half last night at Gonzaga.

Penn State allowed 51 ppg in winning first two games over stiffs by 13-19 points; Lions have four starters back from 16-18 team, but starter that left was star G Frazier. Charlotte has four starters back from 17-14 team that went 7-9 in C-USA; 49ers were just 16-32 in line in 73-60 win in its opener at Elon-- they also hit seven of 15 treys, go figure.

Texas has all five starters back from 24-11 team that went 11-7 in Big X and won game in NCAAs; Longhorns weren't tested in first two games, winning by 35-32 points over stiffs. Iowa has three starters back from 20-13 team that faded late in season and lost play-in game. Hawkeyes are 2-0 after similar start, hammering couple of inferior opponents.

Syracuse is little down this year after losing three starters from LYs 28-6 team; they lost two players early to NBA, including PG Ennis after only one season. Orange allowed 45.5 ppg in beating couple lame opponents to start year- they'll have crowd edge here. Cal has new coach in former Tennessee coach Martin; they scored 92 ppg in winning first two games.

Denver runs Princeton offense, which is tough to get ready for on short notice; Pioneers have four starters back from 16-15 team that went 8-6 in its first year in Summit. St Mary's beat New Mexico State by 12 very late Monday night in ESPN's hoop marathon; Gaels lost three starters from 23-12 team that went 11-7 in WCC last season.
 
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Bad Company - Week 13
By Kevin Rogers

Three weeks remain in the college football regular season, while the next two weekends are full cards. This Saturday, several of the struggling teams that are mentioned in this piece look to find some way to cover as an underdog, while a majority of them are receiving plenty of points. We’ll begin with Indiana, who has the daunting task of hanging with Ohio State.

Indiana (+34 ½) at Ohio State – 12:00 PM EST

The Hoosiers have been a fade machine this season, as IU has covered just twice in 10 games, coming off last week’s 45-23 defeat at Rutgers as 9 ½-point underdogs. Indiana actually led at halftime, 13-10, but the Hoosiers’ defense allowed 35 points in the second half, giving up at least 34 points in five conference losses. It’s not even worth taking the points with the Hoosiers, who are 1-4-1 ATS as an underdog, with the only cover coming in an upset of Missouri back in September.

The Buckeyes are a machine right now, going 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in the past eight games since losing to Virginia Tech. Ohio State didn’t cover in last week’s win at Minnesota, but the Buckeyes have taken care of business at the Horseshoe for bettors by covering four straight home contests. However, OSU hasn’t cashed in the past three meetings with Indiana as a heavy favorite, as the Hoosiers covered in a 42-14 loss last season as 33 ½-point ‘dogs.

Texas-San Antonio (+9) at Western Kentucky – 12:00 PM EST

The Roadrunners began the season with a pair of covers against Houston and Arizona, but UTSA has turned into pointspread poison since by posting a 1-7 ATS record the past eight games. UTSA snapped a three-game skid in last week’s 12-10 comeback victory over Southern Mississippi as seven-point favorite, while scoring just 19 points in the previous three games combined.

Western Kentucky hasn’t been great either against the number, covering three of its past nine contests. The Hilltoppers dominated Army last week, 52-24 to cash as seven-point favorites, improving to 2-3 ATS as a home favorite. WKU’s offense has been nearly unstoppable at home this season, scoring at least 35 points in all five home contests, but the Hilltoppers haven’t covered back-to-back games in 2014.

SMU (+28) at UCF – 12:00 PM EST

The Mustangs are a staple in this piece in each week, but that happens when you haven’t won a game in nine tries this season. SMU squandered a late 13-0 lead in last week’s 14-13 defeat to USF, but the Mustangs picked up a cover as 9 ½-point underdogs, the second straight ATS win. The only positive to come out from last week’s loss was SMU allowing its least amount of points all season, while the Mustangs are 1-4 ATS as an underdog of 21 points or more.

One season removed from a Fiesta Bowl victory, UCF started this season slow out of the gate with an 0-2 SU/ATS mark. But the Knights have rebounded with a 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS record in the past seven games, while allowing 14 points or less five times. UCF has won 12 straight conference games at Bright House Networks Stadium since 2011, posting an 8-4 ATS record in this span.

New Mexico (+22) at Colorado State – 1:30 PM EST

Even though the Lobos are 3-7 this season, New Mexico has managed to cover four straight games, including in a 28-21 loss to Utah State as 20-point underdogs last Saturday. The Lobos are actually 4-0 ATS in four tries as a road underdog, while all five Mountain West losses have come by 11 points or fewer. The strike against this Lobos’ squad is their rushing defense, which has been shredded for an average of 277 yards a game.

Colorado State is fresh off the bye week, as the Rams look to extend their winning streak to nine with a victory on Saturday. CSU has covered six times during this hot stretch, but didn’t cash in two home wins over Wyoming and Utah State back in October. Last season, the Rams ripped up the Lobos in Albuquerque, 66-42, the fourth straight win in the series for Colorado State.

Tulsa (+20) at Houston – 3:00 PM EST

The Golden Hurricane has been anything but this season at 2-8, while winning just once since the start of September. Tulsa’s only win since knocking off Tulane in double-overtime in the season opener came against SMU, which is no big feat. The Golden Hurricane covered in losses at Temple and Memphis as double-digit ‘dogs, but TU has allowed at least 28 points in all six AAC games, against plenty of teams that aren’t offensively efficient.

The Cougars look to rebound after getting tripped up by Tulane as 17-point favorites, 31-24 two weeks ago. That was just the second ATS loss for Houston in the past seven games, while trying to sure up its defense after giving up 37 points combined in the three previous contests prior to the Tulane loss. Houston hasn’t had much luck at home with Tulsa in the last two meetings, dropping each matchup in 2013 and 2011, including a 41-7 defeat last season.
 
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NCAAF Thursday's Showdowns
By Joe Nelson

The Thursday night college football schedule ramps up this week with two major conference battles of great intrigue as the Big XII features Kansas State at West Virginia and the ACC features the matchup of nearby rivals North Carolina and Duke. Here is a quick look at both games to start off the new weekend in college football.

Match-up: Kansas State Wildcats at West Virginia Mountaineers
Venue: Mountaineer Field in Morgantown, West Virginia
Date: Thursday, November 20, 2014
Time/TV: 7:00 PM ET – FOX 1
Line: West Virginia -2
Last Meeting: 2013, at Kansas State (-13) 35-12

At 7-2, including 5-1 in Big XII play, Kansas State is still ranked #12 in the nation, but two of the three remaining games are difficult road games with this week’s test in Morgantown and a finale in Waco. Baylor, along with the TCU team that beat Kansas State two weeks ago, appear to be in a better position for the Big XII title and both have eyes on sneaking into the national playoff should there be a few upsets around the country in the remaining weeks of the schedule.

Kansas State has played three big games this season, losing in a tight Thursday night game in September at home against Auburn, squeaking by Oklahoma on the road in a game they were soundly out-gained in, and then losing by 21 at TCU in a key battle on top of the Big XII Conference. With Auburn and Oklahoma slipping in stature in recent weeks, it is possible that the Wildcats are an overrated team, but Coach Bill Snyder has an impressive track record and this is never a team anyone is overly interested in laying points against.

West Virginia opened the season with head coach Dana Holgorsen facing a critical season. After a somewhat messy takeover of the program in 2011, Holgorsen delivered a great debut season with 10 wins, including a blowout victory in the Orange Bowl. The move to the Big XII has been challenging with the Mountaineers going 6-12 in the conference play the past two seasons and missing the postseason last year. While it may not be a banner year for the program, the call has been answered with much better results this season through a very difficult schedule.

West Virginia is just 6-4 this season, but they have faced three of the top six teams in this week’s AP poll, giving Baylor its only loss and playing very competitively with both Alabama and TCU. West Virginia also lost to Oklahoma and Texas as the team has had nearly two weeks to recover from a loss in Austin that bumped the Mountaineers out of the rankings. This is the home finale for a team that will be back in the bowl picture and a program that has proven it can compete in the Big XII.

The statistics are fairly close for these teams on a per play basis though West Virginia is more productive for per game average, posting over 500 yards of offense per game. West Virginia is throwing 40 times per game for one of the more prolific passing offenses in the country. It has not come without turnovers as the Mountaineers have averaged over two turnovers per game, sitting -13 for one of the worst turnover margins in the nation. The focus of this game will be who can control the tempo with West Virginia running over 85 plays per game in contrast with Kansas State averaging fewer than 70 plays per game.

Kansas State has featured a strong run defense for the most part this season and the ground game will likely tell the story for the 'Cats having success Thursday night. Kansas State has won and covered convincingly in both meetings the past two seasons and the Wildcats are on an 18-5 ATS run as a road underdog going back to 2007. West Virginia is 17-28-2 ATS as a home favorite since 2006, but this should be a great home crowd and atmosphere under the lights for the final home game in Morgantown.

Match-up: North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils
Venue: Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, North Carolina
Date: Thursday, November 20, 2014
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET – ESPN
Line: Duke -6
Last Meeting: 2013, Duke (+5) 27-25 at North Carolina

Until last week’s one-point home loss to Virginia Tech, the Blue Devils were even starting to generate some conversation about being a national playoff team. At 8-2, those discussions are over, but Duke can win the ACC Coastal title and advance to the ACC championship game for a second straight season if they win out. Georgia Tech currently leads the division, through with its conference season at 6-2, but Duke beat the Yellow Jackets on the road in October. If Duke wins Thursday night, they should be in great shape for the division title as the finale is at home against Wake Forest, who is winless in ACC play.

Despite the success there are many red flags on Duke’s profile. The yardage statistics are nearly even on both sides of the ball and Duke has been out-gained by over 100 yards in four of six ACC contests while getting out-rushed in all but one conference game. Duke faced an embarrassingly weak non-conference schedule and three wins came by seven or fewer points with some fortunate plays going its way.

The statistics are very poor for North Carolina, but the Tar Heels have played one of the ACC’s toughest schedules. Projected by many as the favorite in the division, the Tar Heels are just 5-5 overall and 3-3 in league play with the wins all coming in the last four games after a 2-4 start to the season. North Carolina has a favorable matchup with NC State at home to close the season next week, as the postseason looks much more promising than it did a few weeks ago but this has been a disappointing team.

North Carolina has allowed 512 yards per game this season on 6.5 yards per play and the numbers have been equally bad against the run or the pass. On offense, North Carolinas has been one-dimensional with the running game struggling most of the season and the Tar Heels have been out-gained in eight of the last nine games including all six ACC games. The four FBS wins for North Carolina have come by a grand combined total of 15 points with one of those wins being a late comeback last week with a touchdown in the final minute. This was a very even game last season with Duke winning 27-25 and the Blue Devils won 33-30 two years ago in the last home meeting. Those wins ended a long series win streak for North Carolina between these schools that sit about eight miles apart.

Duke is 19-13 ATS in this series since 1982, but North Carolina has won S/U in 26 of the last 34 meetings. North Carolina is just 5-9-1 ATS as a road underdog since 2010 and in five road games this season, North Carolina has allowed 244 points, surrendering at least 47 points in four of the five games. Duke is on a 12-3 ATS run as a home favorite since 2012 and the Blue Devils are 7-3 ATS overall this season though many of the covers have come by slim margins.
 
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NCAAF opening line report: Motivated Baylor big home chalk vs. Oklahoma State
By COLIN KELLY

Oklahoma State at Baylor (-26.5)

After a stretch in which every weekend brought with it the next game of the year, Week 13 of the college football season doesn’t have a single game that screams out, “Marquee matchup.” But the games always matter to the bettors, no matter how big or small, and there are still some contests that could help shape the first-ever four-team playoff.

Baylor is in one of those contests, hosting an Oklahoma State squad that would love to play spoiler. The Bears (8-1 SU, 6-2-1 ATS) are coming off their bye week following a pair of blowout victories – 60-14 as a 34.5-point home favorite over Kansas, and a 48-14 upset of Oklahoma as a 5.5-point underdog.

The Cowboys (5-5 SU, 3-7 ATS) had much higher aspirations this year, but they drove their season into the ditch with four consecutive blowout losses – 42-9 at Texas Christian, 34-10 against West Virginia, 48-14 at Kansas State and 28-7 to visiting Texas on Saturday.

“The Cowboys are in a freefall and don’t appear focused to finish the season,” said John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu. “Baylor has to be feeling good coming off a bye and a trouncing of Oklahoma. There is also the added motivation to move up in the college football playoff ranking. They’ll be out for blood here, and the bettors will lay the hefty chalk."

“We’re also expecting a ton of teaser liability on the Bears so we had to inflate this line.”

Boston College Eagles at Florida State Seminoles (-20)

You’d think Florida State’s luck would run out at some point, but the Seminoles (10-0 SU, 3-7 SU) have now won 26 in a row SU. The defending national champs trailed 16-0 at Miami early in the second quarter Saturday, but pulled out a 30-26 win and cover as a 1.5-point fave.

Boston College (6-4 SU and ATS) enters off its bye week, after a 38-19 home loss to Louisville as a 3-point pup.

“The Seminoles keep playing with fire, and eventually they’ll get burned, but probably not this week,” Lester said. “It’s a sandwich spot for Florida State, with Florida on deck, but I actually think the Seminoles show up here. Boston College coach Steve Addazio admits his squad is a work in progress, and it’ll do well to stay within three scores.”

Vanderbilt Commodores at Mississippi State Bulldogs (-29.5)

Mississippi State was finally dealt its first loss of the season, leaving no teams unblemished in the Southeastern Conference. The Bulldogs (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS), perhaps surprisingly 10-point underdogs at Alabama on Saturday, rallied from a 19-3 deficit but fell short 25-20.

Still, the Bulldogs remain in the thick of the four-team playoff chase, so Vanderbilt could be the perfect bounce-back opponent. The Commodores (3-7 SU, 5-5 ATS) come in rested, with a week off after a 34-10 home loss to Florida catching 14.5 points.

While many will view this game as a letdown for Mississippi State, I think they’ll avoid the hangover. Dan Mullen is a great coach who will have his kids ready, knowing that there’s still an opportunity to get into the playoff,” Lester said. “Vandy will be well prepared off the bye and can probably keep this contest inside the number.”

Southern California Trojans at UCLA Bruins (-3)

The battle for Los Angeles bragging rights will feature two fresh teams, with USC having played last Thursday and UCLA coming off its bye week. The Bruins (8-2 SU, 3-7 ATS) have won four in a row SU (2-2 ATS), including a 44-30 victory at Washington laying 6 points. The Trojans (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) fended off California 38-30, falling short as a hefty 14-point fave.

“You have to love the Victory Bell rivalry, and the pranks are often the best part,” Lester said. “But this one should be good because we have two very evenly matched teams. UCLA controls its own destiny to play in the Pac-12 championship, while USC can get there if certain scenarios play out. There’s no shortage of motivation on either side, obviously, and we see this as a classic tossup.”
 
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College Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Oklahoma State at Baylor November 22, 07:30 EST

The Oklahoma State would love to play spoiler but 'Pokes' are in a freefall with blowout losses to TCU (42-9), West Virginia (34-10), K-State (48-14) and most recently Texas (28-7). On the other side, Baylor Bears off a pair of blowout victories vs Kansas (60-14), Oklahoma (48-14) prior to their bye won't let this one slip away especially in Waco where Bears have won 14 straight home games including the first four at the brand new McLane Stadium. Consider laying the lumber knowing Bears are 4-0-1 ATS following a bye week, 23-4 ATS in their last 27 home games.


Boston College Eagles at Florida State Seminoles November 22, 03:30 EST

Seminoles once again escaped disaster. Down 23-10 at the half at Miami, the Noles' outscored Canes 20-3 in the second half leaving Sun Life Stadium with a 30-26 victory as 1.5 point favorite extending the SU streak to 26 games. Seminoles not good bets this season posting a cash draining 3-7 mark against the betting line will be playing with fire this weekend. Noles have been pegged 19.5 to 20.0 point favorite hosting Boston College (6-4 SU/ATS). Noles 1-7 ATS this season laying double digits, 1-5 ATS L6 laying 18 or more points could get burned. Eagles despite their woes have cashed 5-of-7 as DD underdogs and own a smart 3-1 ATS record last four in Noles back-yard.
 
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Mid-Major Money: Big profits from NCAAF small conferences
By DOC'S SPORTS

Some of the best betting value in college football is hiding beyond the BCS, in the small conferences. Each week, Doc’s Sports will look at the little programs that could help you make big cash this college season.

Team to watch: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS)

This week: -9 vs. Texas-San Antonio

Count on Western Kentucky playing with a sense of urgency Saturday. The Hilltoppers can win four straight at home for the first time since 2003, earn five home victories in a season for the first time since 2004, and—most importantly—they can become bowl eligible for a fourth consecutive year.

Standing in their way is Texas-San Antonio, which barely won 12-10 over Southern Miss (3-8, 1-6 USA) last weekend and is still 3-7 overall. Head coach Larry Coker didn’t sound positive when he spoke to the media on Tuesday.

“We’re not practicing well enough to win right now, especially on offense,” Coker admitted. “We got to take some leadership and we got to get a lot better. If we don’t, we have no chance on Saturday.”

Texas-San Antonio third-string QB Austin Robinson may get another start with Tucker Carter and Blake Bogenschutz likely out. The Roadrunners are 1-7 ATS in their last eight overall.

Team to beware: San Jose State Spartans (3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS)

This week: +13 at Utah State

How bad was San Jose State last week? Well, to say it nice, the Spartans were less than opportunistic. Despite not punting a single time, they didn’t score a single point in a 13-0 home loss to Hawaii. Their possessions (not including at the ends of both halves) resulted in three missed field goals (two blocked), two fumbles (one on a punt return), one interception, and three turnovers on downs. San Jose State was an abominable 0 for 6 inside the red zone.

“I'm sorry people had to observe that,” head coach Ron Caragher said afterward. “It's not acceptable and I take responsibility…. It was a brutal game.”

The botched field goals led to the turnovers on downs, as Caragher became reluctant to send in the kicking game even when well within range. He’s having an open placekicking competition this week prior to Friday’s game at Utah State.

Total team: Boise State Broncos (8-2 SU, 7-3 O/U)

This week: 62 at Wyoming

Wyoming safety Jesse Sampson has missed the last two games with a knee injury and is questionable against Boise State Saturday. In just six outings this season, Sampson has 33 tackles and four pass breakups. Fellow safety Darrenn White is out indefinitely with a leg issue. In only seven games, White has 42 tackles—still fifth best on the team.

This is bad news for the Cowboys, who are going up against an offense that features reigning Mountain West Player of the Week Grant Hedrick. The senior quarterback passed for 367 yards, rushed for 131, and accounted for six total touchdowns in a 38-29 win over San Diego State last weekend.

The Over is 5-0 in Boise State’s last five overall. It is 5-1 in Wyoming’s last six overall.
 
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NCAAF line watch: Wait and watch Arizona-Utah spread climb
By STEVE MERRIL

Each week during the college football season, Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Baylor Bears (-27)

Baylor opened as a 24-point home favorite over Oklahoma State and early money quickly came in on the favorite pushing the line up to -27. I expect more money to come in on Baylor throughout the week, so this line could potentially reach the key number of -28.

Oklahoma State is a bad football team. The Cowboys have lost four straight by 33, 24, 34, and 21-point margins. Their offense scored 14 points or less in all four of those games. Baylor comes in fresh off its bye with revenge in its heart after losing 49-17 as a 7.5-point favorite at Oklahoma State last season.

Lay the points now with Baylor before the line goes up to and possibly higher than the key number of -28.

Spread to wait on

Arizona Wildcats (+4) at Utah Utes

Utah was initially posted as a 3-point home favorite over Arizona and money quickly came in on the Utes, pushing this line up to -3.5 and even to -4 in some locations.

Arizona comes in off an uninspiring 27-26 home win over Washington, while Utah won 20-17 at Stanford as a 10-point underdog. The Utes have now played in seven consecutive highly-emotional games and they’ve been underdogs in five of those games, including four straight outings.

Utah is now laying points in a bad situational spot, so the Wildcats hold the value as a road underdog in this game, especially if the line goes up higher.

Total to watch

Stanford Cardinal at California Golden Bears (61)

Stanford and California are built in different ways. The Cardinal win with defense while the Golden Bears win with offense. Stanford is only averaging 23.9 points per game on 5.8 yards per play. The Cardinal defense only allows 16.5 points per game on 4.1 yards per play.

California has a potent offense that is averaging 40.7 points per game on 6.3 yards per play. The Golden Bears’ defense is a sieve, giving up 39.7 points per game on 6.2 yards per play. Stanford is currently a 6-point road favorite, so the oddsmakers will likely shade this total lower based on the weak offense and strong defense of the Cardinal.
 
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Thursday's games

Cincinnati won its last three games, scoring 37.7 ppg and running ball for 240+ yards; over last 11 years, Bearcats are 9-4 as home underdog. East Carolina is 2-2 on road, losing last game as 10-point favorite at Temple; they lost five fumbles in game, losing despite outgaining Owls 432-135; Pirates are 0-4 vs spread in last four games, 1-6 in last seven games as road favorites. ECU is averaging 22.3 ppg on road, 47.3 at home. AAC home underdogs are 4-6 against the spread this season.

Southern Mississippi lost its last three games, allowing 43 ppg; they got off to 14-0 lead over unbeaten Marshall last week but lost 63-17. Eagles are 3-2 as road underdogs this year, after being 3-10 last two years. San Antonio lost seven of last eight games, with lone win 16-13; they're 0-4 vs spread when favored this year, and lost last three games, by 7-34-10 points, scoring total of seven points last two games while outgained by 444 yards. C-USA home favorites are 9-15 vs spread.

USC won its last ten games with Cal, covering eight of last nine; Trojans won last five series games by average score of 39-13. Golden Bears lost last six visits to USC, last two by 27-9/48-14 scores. USC covered three of four as home favorite this year, winning in Coliseum by 39-25-28, but losing to ASU at home. Cal is 4-0 as road underdog this year, going 3-1 SU, with only loss 49-45 at Arizona when they blew 18-point lead late in game. Pac-12 home favorites are 9-12 vs spread.


Friday's game

Home side won five of last six Tulsa-Central Florida games; Tulsa beat UCF twice in 2012, 33-27/23-21, but Golden Hurricane is 2-7 this year, ending its 7-game skid with win last week over woeful SMU. UCF won four of last five I-A games, with only one of those wins by more than 7 points. Knights are 2-3 as favorite this year, 2-1 at home. Tulsa is 2-1 as road underdog this year, but only one of its four road losses was by less than 20 points. AAC home favorites are 6-12 against spread.
 
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Bettors beware the week before college football's biggest rivalries
By KEVIN CAUSEY

Next week is Rivalry Week in college football, which makes Week 13 “Lookahead Week” for NCAAF bettors. Many programs could get caught looking past this week’s matchup and to their yearly grudge match.

We look at some of the more heated rivalries in college football and how those teams perform the week before butting heads over the past 10 seasons.

Rivalry: Oregon vs. Oregon State (Civil War)

How does Oregon perform the week before?

4-6 SU, 1-9 ATS, 7-3 O/U

How does Oregon State perform the week before?

7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS, 4-6 O/U

What does this mean?

Injuries to the Oregon offensive line have held back most books from opening this game. It also doesn’t help Ducks backers that Oregon is 0-5 ATS over the last five years and 1-9 ATS in the last 10 years the week before the Civil War. Oregon State tends to play well the week before the Oregon game and is currently a 6.5-point dog against Washington.

Rivalry: Michigan vs. Ohio State (The Game)

How does Michigan perform the week before?

5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS, 7-3 O/U

How does Ohio State perform the week before?

7-3 SU, 4-5-1 ATS, 4-6 O/U

What does this mean?

Both of these teams, especially Ohio State seem a little guilty of looking ahead. Ohio State is a 34.5-point favorite against Indiana and, while the Hoosiers haven't played well of late, it takes a lot to paste a conference foe by that many points. Michigan is a 5-point favorite against Maryland.

Rivalry: Alabama vs. Auburn (Iron Bowl)

During the last 10 years, Auburn had five byes in weeks heading up to the Iron Bowl with Alabama enjoying one in 2009 and both teams had one game that had no total on the board.

How does Alabama perform the week before?

5-4 SU, 2-5-2 ATS, 3-5 O/U

How does Auburn perform the week before?

4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U

What does this mean?

As good as these two teams have been recently, these trends don't reflect their success. With both teams scheduling down this week, Alabama faces Western Carolina and Auburn faces Samford, put a check mark in the win column. As for the spread, some places will book these FCS punching bags with massive lines.

Rivalry: Arizona vs. Arizona State (Duel in the Desert)

How does Arizona perform the week before?

4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS, 6-4 O/U

How does Arizona State perform the week before?

5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS, 6-4 O/U

What does this mean?

The trends definitely aren't telling us anything about this Pac-12 bad blood. But, if you look at an eight-year window, instead of a 10, Arizona is 6-2 ATS in its last eight before facing ASU. Arizona is a 4-point dog at Utah – tough to look past the Utes - and Arizona State is a 16-point favorite against Washington State.

Rivalry: Notre Dame vs. USC

This rivalry is a little strange to look at because both teams have had byes in weeks leading up the games. Notre Dame had a bye in 2004, 2005, 2009, 2011 and 2013. Southern Cal had a bye in 2004, 2008 and 2009. And what makes it even more difficult is USC is playing rival UCLA this week.

How does Notre Dame perform the week before?

3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS, 0-4-1 O/U

How does USC perform the week before?

5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS, 3-4 O/U

What does this mean?

Notre Dame is a 3.5-point favorite versus Louisville this week but has lost three of its last four, including three straight blown covers. Quarteback Everett Golson is nursing a sore shoulder and the Irish are without defensive line leader Sheldon Day, to go along with other missing cogs on the stop unit. As mentioned above, the Trojans won’t risk looking past rival UCLA this weekend. Southern Cal has failed to cover in four of its last five meetings with the Bruins.

Rivalry: Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss (Egg Bowl)

How does Mississippi State perform the week before?

3-7 SU, 5-5 ATS, 7-3 O/U

How does Ole Miss perform the week before?

2-8 SU, 6-4 ATS, 6-4 O/U

What does this mean?

These trends are muddled a bit by the fact that both of these schools are playing at a higher level this season then they have in the past. Ole Miss is a 3.5-point favorite at Arkansas while Mississippi State gives 29 points to Vanderbilt at home Saturday.

Rivalry: Kansas vs. Kansas State

Kansas had three byes prior to the Kansas State game in 2006, 2010 and 2012. Kansas State had a bye in 2012.

How does Kansas perform the week before?

1-6 SU, 4-3 ATS, 2-6 O/U

How does Kansas State perform the week before?

3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS, 9-0 O/U

What does this mean?

Kansas finds itself in a dreaded sandwich spot, coming off a strong effort versus TCU last week. A letdown could be in store for the Jayhawks, even with them getting 25 points in Norman Saturday. The Wildcats don’t have the same healthy respect for its yearly rival as other programs might have – and can you blame them. Kansas State won’t be looking past West Virginia as a 2.5-point road underdog Thursday.
 
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College Football Trends

College Football Betting Trends - Thurs, Nov. 20

Kansas State at West Virginia, 7:00 ET
Kansas St: 55-33 OVER after playing 3 straight conference games
W Virginia: 0-6 ATS after a bye week

North Carolina at Duke, 7:30 ET
N Carolina: 37-21 ATS after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers
Duke: 19-7 OVER in home games after playing 2 straight conference games

Arkansas State at Texas State, 9:30 ET
Akransas St: 10-2 UNDER in road games off 2 or more consecutive overs
Texas St: 7-0 ATS after playing 3 straight conference games


College Football Betting Trends - Fri, Nov. 21

Utep at Rice, 8:00 ET
Utep: 2-10 ATS in a road game where the total is between 52.5 and 56
Rice: 22-6 ATS in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better

Air Force at San Diego State, 9:30 ET
Air Force: 0-8 ATS in road games after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers
San Diego St: 6-0 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points

San Jose State at Utah State, 9:30 ET
San Jose St: 50-31 UNDER as an underdog
Utah St: 15-6 ATS against conference opponents
 
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KANSAS ST (7 - 2) at W VIRGINIA (6 - 4) - 11/20/2014, 7:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS ST is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS ST is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS ST is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS ST is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS ST is 44-24 ATS (+17.6 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
W VIRGINIA is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
W VIRGINIA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after a bye week over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS ST is 2-0 against the spread versus W VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS ST is 2-0 straight up against W VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


N CAROLINA (5 - 5) at DUKE (8 - 2) - 11/20/2014, 7:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
DUKE is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DUKE is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DUKE is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DUKE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
DUKE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DUKE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
DUKE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DUKE is 2-0 against the spread versus N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
DUKE is 2-0 straight up against N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


ARKANSAS ST (6 - 4) at TEXAS ST (5 - 5) - 11/20/2014, 9:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
ARKANSAS ST is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in November games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARKANSAS ST is 1-0 against the spread versus TEXAS ST over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS ST is 1-0 straight up against TEXAS ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 
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Trends

KANSAS STATE vs. WEST VIRGINIA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas State's last 6 games on the road
Kansas State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
West Virginia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of West Virginia's last 5 games

NORTH CAROLINA vs. DUKE
North Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
North Carolina is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games when playing Duke
Duke is 3-16 SU in its last 19 games when playing North Carolina
Duke is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against North Carolina

ARKANSAS STATE vs. TEXAS STATE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arkansas State's last 5 games
Arkansas State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas State's last 5 games
Texas State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
 
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Betting Recap - Week 11

Overall Notes

NFL Week 11 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 7-6
Against the Spread 5-8

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 7-6
Against the Spread 7-6

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 3-10


NFL Overall Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 105-54-1
Against the Spread 78-76-4

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 91-66-1
Against the Spread 77-78-3

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 79-78-3


Biggest Favorite to Cash

In a day where underdogs dominated, Green Bay (-4.5) helped bettors chasing in the late games. The Packers walloped the Eagles 53-20 in wire-to-wire fashion. Bookmakers have been getting beaten up by the infamous Green Bay-Over at Lambeau Field. This combination has gone 4-0-1 this season for bettors.

Biggest Underdog to Cash

The Bengals (+8.5) defeated New Orleans 27-10 as road underdogs. Even though the Saints were 4-5 entering this game, they received a lot of public and sharp support. Cincinnati led 13-3 at halftime and outscored New Orleans 14-3 in the final two quarters. Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton took a lot of heat in Week 10 after the club was embarrassed 24-3 at home. In this week’s win, Dalton was 16-of-22 for 220 yards and three touchdowns. Cincinnati was a 3/1 underdog on the money-line.

The Rams (+8) also deserve attention too as they dominated the Broncos 22-7 at home. St. Louis harassed Peyton Manning all day long, sacking him twice and forcing two interceptions. Money-line backers cashed St. Louis as high as plus-375 underdogs.

Home/Away

In the early games, home teams went 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS. The lone hosts to cash tickets in the early games were the Bears, Chiefs and Rams.

Despite losing 19-17 at home to Atlanta, the Panthers managed to cover as 2 ½-point home underdogs.

Late games watched the host bounce back with a 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS mark.

Including Thursday’s result, home teams went 7-6 both SU and ATS in the first 13 games.

Not so Sharp

Minnesota received plenty of attention on Sunday morning in its matchup against Chicago. The Vikings opened as four-point road underdogs earlier this week and closed as low as one-point ‘dogs at some shops. Chicago captured a 21-13 win at home.

No Carson, No Problem

Arizona improved to 9-1 on Sunday with a 14-6 win against Detroit. The Cardinals are 8-2 ATS and have covered six straight games for bettors. The loss for Detroit snapped its four-game winning streak.

Hot ant Not

The Chiefs started the season 0-2 and were decimated with injuries. Since the rough start, Kansas City has gone 7-1 both SU and ATS, which includes its 24-20 win over Seattle this week.

Coincidentally, the last team to beat New England was Kansas City. Since that setback, the Patriots have won six in a row (5-1 ATS) and five of those victories came by double digits. The Giants have dropped five straight, both SU and ATS. New York lost 16-10 on Sunday to San Francisco, which was the first setback during this skid that wasn’t decided by double digits.

Dirty South

Atlanta improved to 4-6 on Sunday with a 19-17 road win over Carolina. The Falcons are far from a great team but they are in first place in the NFC South. Atlanta only has four wins but all four came in the division, which is obviously the worst group in the league.

Northern Powers

While the NFC South is horrible, the AFC North could arguably be the best.

Cincinnati 6-3-1
Baltimore 6-4
Pittsburgh 6-4 (Plays Monday at Titans)
Cleveland 6-4

Even though the Bengals are in first, they play four of their final six games on the road.

Still Winless

Oakland fell to 0-10 on Sunday after losing to San Diego 13-6. The Raiders did manage to cover as 10-point road underdogs.

Looking at the schedule, it’s very probably that the Raiders will go 0-16. With three of the final six at home, Oakland will need solid efforts to beat Kansas City, San Francisco or Buffalo.

Totals

The ‘under’ went 7-1 in the first eight games on Sunday afternoon and all of the results were clear cut winners. The late games watched the ‘under’ go 2-1. Including the Bills-Dolphins outcome, the ‘under’ 10-2 in Week 12.

Notable streaks that were extended listed below.

The Browns have seen the ‘under’ cash in their last six games.

Atlanta has seen the ‘under’ go 6-0 in its last six.

The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight for Tampa Bay.

Green Bay has seen the ‘over’ go 9-1 this season, seventh straight ticket cashing this weekend.

The Patriots have seen the ‘over’ go 7-0 in their last seven games. The New England offense is averaging 36.5 PPG during this stretch.
 
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Raiders look for 1st win

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (7-3) at OAKLAND RAIDERS (0-10)
Line & Total: Kansas City -7, Total: 43

The Raiders look to earn their first victory of the season when they host the red-hot Chiefs on Thursday night.

Kansas City outlasted the Seahawks 24-20 last week as a 1-point home favorite, giving the club five straight victories (SU and ATS) and seven wins in the past eight contests (SU and ATS). Meanwhile Oakland failed to score more than 17 points for the fourth time in five games in a 13-6 loss at San Diego, but did cover the spread as a 10-point underdog.

The last time the Chiefs visited Oakland, Jamaal Charles racked up 215 yards from scrimmage and five total touchdowns in a 56-31 victory. Kansas City is 9-2 SU and ATS in its past 11 meetings in Oakland. In fact, the road team is 18-4 ATS in this head-to-head series dating back to the start of the 2003 season.

While the Chiefs are one of only two NFL teams allowing an average of 17.5 or fewer points per game, the Raiders are one of only three offenses in the league scoring an average of 17 or fewer points per contest. The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS off a non-conference game over the last two years and 11-3 ATS in road games during that span. They are, however, just 8-26 ATS in road games after gaining 175+ rushing yards in their previous game since 1992.

Both teams have several players on the injury list, with the most notables being WR Donnie Avery (groin), WR A.J. Jenkins (shoulder), TE Anthony Fasano (knee), CB Chris Owens (knee) and CB Jamell Fleming (hamstring), who are is questionable for Kansas City.

For Oakland, four questionable players that stand out are CB Carlos Rogers (knee), S Jonathan Dowling (back), TE David Ausberry (foot) and G Gabe Jackson (knee). The Chiefs are one of the hottest teams and football and it’s largely due to the play of their defense. They are the best team in the league at defending air attacks, allowing just 201.6 passing yards per game. They should have no trouble making things extremely difficult on Derek Carr.

Offensively, QB Alex Smith (1,977 pass yards, 11 TD, 4 INT) continues to win games despite not having the arm that many other quarterbacks in this league have. Smith is a game manager and does an excellent job of doing just that. It’ll take an extremely poor performance for him to allow his team to lose this game to a winless Raiders team.

RB Jamaal Charles (692 rush yards, 8 TD) has been in a groove recently, rushing for seven touchdowns in the past five games. He rushed 20 times for 159 yards and two touchdowns in the win over Seattle last week and should be able to do something similar against an Oakland defense that is allowing 129.8 rushing yards per game (27th in NFL) this year.

The Raiders went into San Diego last game and kept it close, but they were unable to move the ball against a Chargers defense that is far from being anything special. QB Derek Carr (2,075 pass yards, 13 TD, 9 INT) threw for 172 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions in the game, but he did lose a fumble. He’ll need to take care of the ball against a Chiefs defense that will be constantly trying to force turnovers.

The Raiders are really lacking in talent on the offensive side of the ball. TE Mychal Rivera (37 rec, 326 yards, 3 TD) has been their best weapon in the passing game in recent weeks, catching 24 passes for 225 yards and three touchdowns over the past four games. He had three catches for 40 yards on five targets in the loss to San Diego.

Somebody will need to step their game up if this team is going to beat anybody this season, and that somebody will likely be RB Darren McFadden (393 rush yards, 2 TD). McFadden has rushed for just 35 yards on 15 carries over the past two weeks and just doesn’t seem to have any explosiveness this season. Still, the Raiders will need to get their ground game going and he is the only one with a chance of producing there. This defense will need to be ready to stop the run against Jamaal Charles and the Chiefs.
 
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Chiefs at Raiders
By Kevin Rogers

In the age of parity inside the NFL, it’s amazing to see a team to start a season at 0-10. The Oakland Raiders sit in that dubious position for the first time in franchise history and are actually riding a 16-game losing streak dating back to last November. The Raiders host the rival Chiefs on Thursday night to kick off Week 12, as Kansas City is going the opposite way by seeking its sixth consecutive victory.

The Chiefs knocked off the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks last Sunday, 24-20, in spite of falling short of gaining 300 yards of offense. Jamaal Charles led the way for Kansas City with 159 yards and two touchdowns, the first 100-yard rushing game for the three-time Pro Bowler this season. Since getting upset by Tennessee in the season opener, the Chiefs have won each of their past four games at Arrowhead Stadium, while allowing 20 points or less in each of those wins.

Oakland has actually been a 50/50 proposition against the number this season, covering five times in its 10 losses. The Raiders haven’t covered consecutive games in 2014, coming off a 13-6 loss to the Chargers last week as 10 ½-point underdogs (the second time they have cashed against San Diego). The six points at San Diego were the fewest amount of points scored this season, while being limited to single-digits for only the second time, but have found a way to cover in those games (Week 3 at New England in 16-9 loss).

This series has gone back and forth through the years, but most recently owned by the Chiefs. Andy Reid’s team pulled off the sweep in 2013, winning each matchup by at least 17 points. In the first matchup at Arrowhead Stadium last October, Charles scored a pair of touchdowns to lead the Chiefs to a 24-7 victory as 7 ½-point favorites. Two months later at the Black Hole, Charles dominated the Raiders’ defense again with a career-high five touchdowns in a 56-31 rout as 6 ½-point favorites, the first sweep of the Raiders since 2006.

Oakland’s offense hasn’t done much with rookie Derek Carr at quarterback this season, especially at home. In four games at the Coliseum, the Raiders have scored 17 points or less three times, with the lone breakout coming in Week 6 against San Diego, when Oakland held a 28-21 lead in the fourth quarter before falling, 31-28. Carr threw four touchdown passes in that defeat, while tossing just five touchdowns total in the previous five games.

The defense has stepped up for Kansas City during this five-game winning streak, giving up an average of 14 points per game, while the Chiefs have cashed the ‘under’ in six of the past seven contests. The Chiefs have been money on the highway with a 4-1 ATS mark, but Kansas City is listed as a road favorite for the first time this season. In 2013, the Chiefs took care of business when laying points away from Arrowhead Stadium, posting a 5-0 SU/ATS record in this role.

How long has it been since the Raiders last won at home? Week 8 of last season against the Steelers as 2 ½-point underdogs, 21-18, as Oakland is riding an eight-game losing streak at the Coliseum. Since 2012, the Raiders are 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS in the last 11 home divisional contests with the most previous win over an AFC West foe coming against San Diego in a Sunday night game last season.

This is obviously a big game for the Chiefs in the Wild Card race, but since the Broncos lost at St. Louis last Sunday, Kansas City enters Thursday’s action tied with Denver atop the AFC West at 7-3. Kansas City currently has the tiebreaker advantage over New England, Miami, and Buffalo, while two of its losses won’t matter in a tiebreaker situation against Tennessee and San Francisco. The Chiefs have to avoid a letdown here, as they host the Broncos in a Sunday night showdown next week.

Starting with Week 2 (factoring in short rest), home teams are 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS on Thursday nights, while favorites have covered seven of 10 times. Home underdogs are 0-2 SU/ATS as the Panthers and Texans each lost in this role, which doesn’t bode well for the Raiders, who have enough things going against them this season. The ‘over’ hit in six of the first seven Thursday night games, but the ‘under’ is currently on a three-game streak.

The Chiefs are listed as seven-point favorites at several books, while that number is slowly climbing to 7 ½, as plenty of public money will fall on Kansas City. The total is set at 42 ½, as there is a 40% chance of rain in the East Bay on Thursday night. The game kicks off at 8:25 PM EST and can be seen on the NFL Network.
 
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NFL Opening Line Report: Books careful with Lions-Patriots in Week 12
By COLIN KELLY

Week 12 of the NFL season pits the top team in the AFC against one of the better teams in the NFC, with the New England Patriots playing host to the Detroit Lions.

New England (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) is on a tear, winning six in a row SU while cashing in five of those contests. On Sunday night, the Patriots went into Indianapolis as 3-point underdogs and emerged with a 42-20 beatdown victory. Of the six wins during their current run, five have been by at least 15 points.

Meanwhile, Detroit (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) couldn’t get its offense on track at Arizona, losing 14-6 as a 1-point road favorite, ending a four-game SU win streak and a 6-1 SU surge.

John Lester, said he and his staff were hesitant to quickly release the point spread for this game Monday morning, eventually putting New England up as a 7-point favorite in the afternoon.

“When the Pats are running this hot, we’re going to have a lot of one-sided action on their games,” Lester said before opening the spread at a touchdown. “I’d like to open this at the key number or higher, but I’m getting a little resistance from the room, so we will see where the dust settles. The Lions are a little bit of fool’s gold, but I do like what they’ve been able to accomplish defensively. Jim Caldwell is no stranger to game-planning for New England either.”

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)

Red-hot Arizona has a chance to put a stranglehold on the NFC West. The Cardinals (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) have won six in a row SU and ATS, including Sunday’s 14-6 home victory as a 1-point pup against a solid Detroit Lions squad.

Seattle (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS) is in a tight spot, needing to pile up wins if it hopes for a return playoff trip and a chance to defend its Super Bowl title. The Seahawks fell short at Kansas City 24-20 laying one point Sunday.

“I never would’ve thought going into this season that the Cardinals could lose this game and still be well in control of first place in the NFC West,” Lester said. “Let’s not forget that they came to Seattle last year and won. We know that the Seahawks are struggling to find their identity, and I think Arizona can keep it close in a low-scoring affair.”

Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos (-8)

After bouncing from New England to Oakland to St. Louis, the Broncos (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) finally return home, but in worse shape than when they left. Denver was the top team in the AFC a month ago, then went 1-2 SU and ATS the past three weeks, including Sunday’s stunning 22-7 loss at St. Louis as an 8-point favorite – with the Broncos suffering key injuries (Julius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders).

Miami (6-4 SU and ATS) enters with a little extra rest and in the thick of the AFC playoff chase, after a 22-9 victory over Buffalo as 4-point home chalk Thursday night. The Dolphins are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five outings.

“We probably should have opened this at a touchdown because sharps gobbled up the -8 quickly,” Lester said. “As is the case almost every week, squares will be lining up to tease down Denver, and they’ll be eager to try and get some back after last Sunday’s upset. I’m still in the camp that doesn’t completely trust (Dolphins quarterback) Ryan Tannehill to not make the big mistake.”

Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints (-3)

Both these teams need to start racking up wins, with Baltimore in the middle of a tight AFC North race and New Orleans leading a pack of the pathetic in the NFC South, where every team has a losing record.

The Saints, (4-6 SU and ATS), 8.5-point home chalk against Cincinnati, were dealt a stunning 27-10 loss Sunday. The Ravens (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) are coming off their bye week, following a 21-7 win over Tennessee laying 10.5 points at home.

This game wraps up Week 12, under the Monday night spotlight.

“I haven’t been sold on Baltimore from the get-go, and I’m still not,” Lester said. “Despite New Orleans’ struggles, I wanted to make this number a point higher. When the bright lights of prime time come on, the Saints always seem to show up. I expect the total to elevate; we can’t set these nationally-televised games high enough.”
 
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NFL line watch: Wait until closer to kickoff before backing Bills
By ART ARONSON

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at New York Giants

Die hard football Giants fans are dreaming of yet another November-December run to the playoffs. They look at a schedule that after this game includes four straight against teams with losing records and wonder if Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning have any magic beans left in their pockets. That's unlikely, and the Cowboys will probably deliver the wooden stake in the Giants' hearts this Sunday in East Rutherford. The ‘Boys, who are the only undefeated (4-0) team on the road this season, opened at -3 and the public has been jumping on them in early betting. It’s doubtful that the sharps will come in late on this one even if the number moves to 3.5. Dallas needs this one to keep pace with Philadelphia in the NFC East.

Spread to wait on

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-4.5)

The Jets are long gone and out of things, but they haven’t packed it in as evidenced by their unlikely win over the white-hot Steelers a week ago. New York forced four turnovers in that game, and has had a week off to get ready for the 5-5 Bills. The extra half-point in this one makes it a hard swallow for backers on the Bills. Buffalo crushed the Jets in late October, but the Bills haven’t won since then, losing twice (KC, Miami) in five days. It’s in the Jets’ interest to turn this one into a taffy pull, so the fraction of a point could be very important. Hang on to see if the number changes before pulling the trigger.

Total to watch

Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos (50)

Think Peyton Manning will want to fire the ball all over Mile High after being on the road for the last month, getting stuffed by a mediocre St. Louis team and taking two losses in the last three games? And if all that’s not bad enough, say hello to the Chiefs, who have tied the Broncos in the AFC West at 7-3 and get Denver at home on Nov. 30. Denver’s defense has been exposed over the last three weeks, and the Dolphins themselves aren’t half bad when they have the ball. Looks like a lot of points on the way here as the last thing Denver wants to do is grind it out and give Miami a chance to make it a fourth quarter game.
 
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Thursday Night Football: Chiefs at Raiders

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (+7.5, 42.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs have quietly emerged as a legitimate contender in the AFC, but a loss Thursday night would undo a lot of their current momentum. Winners of five straight games to surge into a first-place tie in the AFC West, the Chiefs hope to keep their hot run going when they visit the Oakland Raiders, who have not won in more than a year. The Raiders are the NFL's only winless team and have dropped 16 straight contests dating back to Nov. 17, 2013, against Houston.

“We’re not giving up. There’s no quit in this team, and that counts for something," said Oakland center Stefen Wisniewski, via the San Francisco Chronicle. "We’re going to keep fighting until the end. I do think that we have a high-character team - a lot of good pros that are going to keep working and keep fighting no matter what the record is.” The Raiders set a season low for points in last week's 13-6 loss at San Diego, one week after setting a season high for points allowed in a 41-7 setback versus Denver. Kansas City's season, of course, is heading in the other direction as the team has not lost since its bye week and made a nice statement with a 24-20 win over Seattle last weekend.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Chiefs as 6-point road faves and that has climbed to 7.5. The total opened 43.5 and has dropped one point.

INJURY REPORT: Chiefs - TE Travis Kelce (probable, shoulder), LB Tamba Hali (probable, knee), TE Anthony Fasano (questionable, knee), S Jamell Fleming (questionable, hamstring), WR Donnie Avery (out, groin). Raiders - Derek Carr (probable, quad), CB Carlos Rogers (questionable, knee), G Gabe Jackson (questionable, knee), CB Travis Carrie (questionable, ankle).

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid-50s with a 50 percent chance of rain.

POWER RANKINGS: Chiefs (-6.0) + Raiders (+6.25) + home field (-3.0) = Chiefs -9.25

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Kansas City remains near the top after its fifth straight win. The Chiefs head to Oakland on short rest before hosting Denver. 6-0 ATS L6 vs. AFC teams. Despite not having won yet this season, Oakland keeps avoiding the basement thanks to having played the toughest schedule. Host Kansas City on Thursday night." Matt Fargo.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS, 7-3 O/U): Alex Smith's history against Oakland is virtually spotless with a 4-0 record and a 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those games. Jamaal Charles is coming off a terrific performance against Seattle - 159 rushing yards and two touchdowns - and was even better the last time he faced the Raiders, as he became the first player in NFL history to catch four TD passes and run for a score in a single game. One of the keys to Kansas City's success has been stopping the pass, as no team in the NFL has given up fewer yards through the air this season than the Chiefs' average mark of 201.8 yards.

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (0-10 SU, 5-5 ATS, 5-5 O/U): Oakland is starting a rookie quarterback in Derek Carr, but the bigger issue at the moment is a rushing attack that ranks last in the NFL at 63 yards per game. Latavius Murray, a sixth-round pick in 2013, gave the Raiders' rushing attack a spark last week with 43 yards on four carries and could see more playing time Thursday, particularly with Darren McFadden running 28 times for 55 yards over his last three outings. One bright spot for Oakland has been the play of 38-year-old Charles Woodson, who made 14 tackles - 11 solo - against San Diego and leads the team with 74 tackles and two interceptions.

TRENDS:

* Chiefs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Oakland.
* Underdog is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meetings.
* Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. AFC.
* Over is 6-1-1 in Raiders last eight games in November.

CONSENSUS: 67 percent of bettors are on the Chiefs.
 
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NFL

Week 12

Raiders (0-10) @ Chiefs (7-3)-- Over last 11 years, Oakland is 5-16 as home underdog in divisional games (1-1 this year). KC swept series 34-7/56-31 LY in Reid's first year in KC, after Oakland had won eight of previous 11 series games. Chiefs won nine of last 11 visits to Oakland. Winless Raiders are 5-5 vs spread, 1-3 as home dogs, losing by 16-3-11-24 points in the Coliseum. Chiefs covered their last nine games, winning last five; three of the five were by 4 or less points; they're 6-0 as road favorites under Reid, but this game is long travel on short week, dicey spot for KC. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 7-12 vs spread. Five of last six Chief games stayed under the total.

Browns (6-4) @ Falcons (4-6)-- Atlanta is 4-0 within its division. 0-6 outside it, so not hard to figure how that factors in here; AFC North teams are 8-1-1 vs NFC South teams this year, part of why 4-6 Falcons are in first place. Underdogs covered all four Browns' road games; Cleveland is 2-2 SU on foriegn soil. Falcons are 2-0 since bye after blowing 21-0 lead in London to Lions in game before their bye; Atlanta is 2-1 at home this year, 1-1 as home favorite; they're +7 (10-3) in turnovers in last four games. Smith is 15-11 vs spread vs AFC teams, 0-2 this year. Teams split last four series games; this is Browns' first visit to Atlanta since '06. Last six Cleveland games, last five Atlanta games stayed under total.

Titans (2-8) @ Eagles (7-3)-- Travel on short week for Titan squad that lost four games in row; four of their last six games were decided by three or less points. Titans are 2-3 as road dogs, losing away games by 26-24-2-14 points- they're 0-3 with Mettenberger at QB, but he averaged 11 yards/attempt vs Steelers Monday; he has potential. Eagles got bamboozled at Lambeau; they're 3-2 as home favorites, winning all five games by 17-3-6-27-24 points. Titans won last four series games after losing previous six; this is their first visit to Philly since '06. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 4-5; AFC South underdogs are 7-9. Last three Philly games, 5 of last 7 Titan games went over.

Lions (7-3) @ Patriots (8-2)-- Pats won last six games (5-1 vs spread); they're 2-2 as a home favorite, winning by 7-26-2-28 points; they crushed Indy last week, scored 45.3 ppg in last three games, as healthy Gronkowski opened up whole offense. In their last 31 drives, Pats have 15 TDs, six FGAs, only four 3/outs. Detroit won four of last five games, holding six of last eight foes to 17 or less points. Lions are 3-2 on road, 0-2 as an underdog, scoring 7-6 points in those two games. NE won last three series games, by 8-7-21 points. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 2-6; NFC North road dogs are 5-7. Last nine Lion games stayed under total; last seven Patriot games went over. Lions are 1-2 on grass, 6-1 on carpet (lost 17-14 at home to Bills).

Packers (7-3) @ Vikings (4-6)-- Pack won six of last seven games, scoring 55-53 points in two post-bye games (10 TDs, five FGA/21 drives), but they're only 2-3 away from home, winning 27-24 (-3) at Miami, 38-17 (-2.5) in Chicago. Green Bay (-9.5) won first meeting 42-10 at Lambeau; they're 9-1-1 in last 11 series games, winning three of four in Twin Cities, but they were all in dome- this is outdoors. Favorites are 7-0 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this season. Vikings are 4-0 when they score 19+ points, 0-6 when they score less; they're 2-2 at home, losing by 23-14. Pack are 13-5 in last 18 games as a divisional road favorite. Nine of ten Packer games went over; four of last five Viking games stayed under.

Jaguars (1-9) @ Colts (7-3)-- Indy won 44-17/40-24 in games following first two losses this season; they're now 13-0-1 vs spread under Pagano/Arians in game following their last 14 regular season losses. Jaguars won two of last three visits here, since '08, they're 12-17 as divisional road dog. Jax lost last three games by 14-10-14 points, outscored in first half 46-13; they're 1-3-1 as road underdogs, losing away games by 17-31-19-2-10 points. Colts allowed 39 ppg in last three games, getting smoked by Pitt/Pats; they are 3-2 as home favorites, winning by 24-7-27, with losses to Eagles/Pats. Favorites are 4-0 vs spread in AFC South divisional games. Seven of last nine Indy games went over total.

Bengals (6-3-1) @ Texans (5-5)-- First grass game this season for Cincy; they're 11-5-1 in last 17 grass games, 5-1-1 in last seven as non-divisional road dog. Houston won last five series games, with three by 11+ points, last two of which were in playoffs. Bengals lost last three visits here, by 29-21-6 points. Bengals are 0-3 when they score 17 or less points, 6-0-1 if they score more; Texans allowed 33-31 points in losing two two home games, to Colts/Eagles, Houston is 4-1 as favorite this year; favorites covered all four of their home games. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 6-2 vs spread; AFC South home favorites are 4-5 vs spread. Four of last five Houston games went over the total.

Jets (2-8) @ Bills (5-5)-- Weather biggest story this week; college game Wednesday was postponed due to huge snowfall in western NY. Bills won four of last five series games, winning 43-23 (+3) in Swamp four weeks ago; Jets turned ball over six times (-6) in that game. Jets lost 28-9/37-14 in last two visits here; they're 1-4 in last five post-bye games losing 28-7/37-14 in last two. Gang Green is 2-2 as road dog, losing away games by 7-2-31-14 points. Bills are 1-2 as favorites this year, 6-9 in last 15 when favored; they lost 17-13/22-9 in two post-bye games, scoring no TDs/four FGs on last six drives in red zone. Eight of ten Buffalo games stayed under total. How much has weather desrupted the Bills' preparation this week?

Buccaneers (2-8) @ Bears (4-6)-- Lovie Smith was 81-63 as Bears' coach ('04-'12), got canned because he was 1-1 in playoff games his last six years (53-45 overall); now he is back in Chicago with 2-8 Bucs, who covered last four road games since 56-14 loss back in Week 3 Thursday night game in Atlanta. Bears won three of last four games vs Bucs, with all four decided by 6 or less points; they're 12-14 under Trestman, 4-6 this year. Chicago lost five of last seven games overall, is 1-3 at home; they snapped 3-game skid by beating Vikings last week. Chicago had been outscored 92-7 in first half during three-game skid. NFC South non-divisional road dogs are 5-6 vs spread. Last four Tampa Bay games stayed under total.
 

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