Thursday 11/17/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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NCAAB

Thursday’s games

Temple split its first two games, beating LaSalle in OT, then a bad home loss to New Hampshire last game. UMass split its first two games, playing at #2 tempo in country; they lost 90-88 at Ole Miss Monday after leading by 8 at half; Minutemen took 36 FTs, Rebels 46 in game that UMass was outscored in 11-0 over last 3:49. Minutemen lost 3 starters from LY but has best freshman class school has had in a decade. Temple has a depleted roster because of injuries. A-14 home favorites are 4-9 vs spread this season.

Providence lost Dunn/Bentil to NBA this year; Friars have 2 starters back from LY’s 24-11 team that won beat USC in NCAAs- they beat Vermont by 22 in opener- game was 34-28 at half. Ohio State beat Navy 10 by 10, NC Central by 6 to open its season; Buckeyes turned ball over 21.9% of time in first two games (#255 in country). OSU has all five starters back from team that was 3-4 in last 7 games LY and missed NCAAs. Big 14 home favorites are 5-4 vs spread so far this month. Big East teams are 6-2 vs spread, but haven’t played that many lined games yet.

DePaul outscored Robert Morris 27-15 on foul line in 78-72 win in their opener. Blue Demons have four 3-star recruits and are expected to improve this year- their last winning season was 10 years ago. Rutgers beat Drexel by 21 after beating a stiff to open season; Scarlet Knights’* last winning season was 2006- they’ve got new coach this year. Big 14 home favorites are 5-4 vs spread so far this month.

Seton Hall beat couple stiffs by 21-24 points to open season; Pirates have nucleus of juniors back (4 starters are back) though star Whitehead did bolt to NBA.- they’re expected to be up with Villanova/Xavier atop Big East. Iowa lost 4 starters from LY’s 22-11 team that won an NCAA game in OT LY, then lost to Villanova in 2nd round. Hawkeyes beat two cupcakes to open this season, winning by 17-32 points- they’ve got only 2 juniors and one senior.

Oregon lost by 17 at Baylor Monday, with best player Brooks out injured- he isn’t expected to play here, ether. Ducks still have 3 other starters back from 31-7 team that made Sweet 16 LY. Oregon beat Valparaiso 73-67 at home LY, after trailing by 4 with 13:30 left. Crusaders made just 10-32 on arc- they’ve got new coach now. Valpo is already 3-0, with D-I wins by 14-20 points over stiffs; they’ve got 3 starters back from 30-7 team Pac-12 home favorites are 7-4 vs spread this month. Horizon road underdogs are 5-1 against the spread.

UConn lost its first two games to Wagner/Northeastern; they’re 0-2 for first time since 1968; as they head to Hawaii for Maui Classic, they stop for game at Loyola Marymount team that is 47-73 in last 4+ years, 15-41 in WCC games. Lions lost by 15 at Nevada after beating a stiff to open season- Nevada shot 68% inside arc against them. LMU has 3 starters back from LY. UConn has five freshmen who are learning college ball the hard way. AAC teams are 4-4 vs spread so far this season. WCC teams are 9-9 vs spread, 3-3 as an underdog.

Davidson’s star G Gibbs is on injury list, check status; Wildcats beat Appalachian State 86-74 in their opener (Gibbs didn’t play), after being down 3 with 10:00 to go. Davidson has 4 starters back from a 20-13 team that made NIT. Davidson was 0-3 vs ACC teams LY, losing by 10-25-33 points to Fla State-Pitt-UNC. Clemson beat Georgia by 10 in its opener, game they never trailed. Tigers have 3 starters back from 17-14 team including their star Blossomgame, who could’ve gone pro. ACC teams are 10-4 vs spread this month; A-14 teams are 7-12 vs spread.

Northern Iowa was 54-17 the last two years; they beat a D-III team in their opener this year. Panthers lost 3 starters from 23-13 team that blew a 12-point lead with 0:34 left in second round NCAA loss to Texas A&M. Will that loss linger? Arizona State beat stiffs by 18-22 points to open this season; Sun Devils shot 60% inside arc in those games. Hurley brought in three 4-star recruits this year, so ASU is younger, much more talented than recent years. MVC teams are 5-6 against the spread so far this month; Pac-12 teams are 9-5.

Wake Forest opened this season with wins over stiffs by 21-20 points; Deacons lost 3 starters back from 11-20 team that went 2-16 after looking promising in Maui last November. Manning is gradually upgrading Wake’s talent level but it is a slow process. Texas-El Paso has 3 starters back from 19-14 team; their PG Artis was once a starter at Oregon. Floyd was an NBA coach, is building Miners back up- they haven’t been to NCAAs since 2010. ACC favorites are 10-3 vs spread this month. C-USA underdogs are 7-1 vs spread.

Mississippi State was 14-19 LY in Howland’s first season there; they had a solid recruiting class, are expected to be better, but they struggled with Norfolk State in opener, winning 78-74- game was tied at half. Central Florida has new coach (Dawkins), not much depth or many returning players— he has a bit of a rebuild on his hands. Knights won first game by 24 over Nicholls State, but it was a 5-point game with 10:00 left. SEC favorites are 7-9 vs spread this month; AAC teams are 4-4 vs spread, 1-1 as underdogs.

Charleston hosts this tournament; they won first two games this month by 13-7 over Coastal Carolina, Citadel. Cougars have all 5 starters back from LY’s 17-14 team, have recruited well in Grant’s two years as coach, are expected to contend for CAA title this year. Boise State is long away from home; they played a stiff in first game, lost 4 starters from LY’s 20-14 team that won 20+ games for 4th year in row. Boise has lot of new guys this year, may take step back. MW teams are 4-5 vs spread this month. CAA teams are 6-6 against the spread.

Pitt lost 3 starters and its coach from a 21-12 team; fanbase got tired of Dixon, so he went back to TCU, his alma mater. Panthers needed double OT to beat Eastern Michigan in its opener, then beat Gardner-Webb by 19- they’ve got decent experience level. SMU has a new coach too; they won first two games by 28-27 points over same two teams that Pitt beat- Mustangs forced TO’s 27.1% of time in first two games, but also turned it over 23.4% of time. ACC teams are 10-4 vs spread this month, all as favorites; AAC teams 4-4, 3-3 as favorites.

Michigan won its first two games by 18-12 points; Beilein has all new assistant coaches this year, possibly a tactical upgrade. Wolverines have all 5 starters back from LY’s team but isn’t very deep- they’ve played at slow pace in their first two games. Michigan finished out of top 50 last two years. Marquette won its first two games by 24-32 points- they made 42.3% on arc in those games, have more experience than they’ve had in Wojo era. Big East teams are 6-2 vs spread this season, Big 14 teams are 9-8.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Louisville Cardinals (9-1) at Houston Cougars (8-2)
By Brett Nault
Thursday, November 17, 2016 at 8:00 pm (TDECU Stadium)
The Line: Louisville Cardinals -14 - Over/Under:
TV: ESPN

The 6th ranked Louisville Cardinals will travel to TDECU Stadium to take on the Houston Cougars this Thursday night in College Football action.

The 6th ranked Louisville Cardinals won their 5th straight game and improved to 9-1 (7-1 AAC) on the season after defeating the Wake Forest Demon Deacons, 44-12, this past Saturday. Louisville was down by a 12-3 margin at halftime however, scored 34 points in the 4th quarter to help pull away from Wake Forest. Louisville outgained Wake Forest by a 491-214 margin and rushed from an incredible 346 yards. Leading the way for the Cardinals was RB Brandon Radcliff who had 3 TD’s and 141 rushing yards on 11 carries. On the season, Louisville is averaging 49.6 ppg on 583.2 yards per game (313.2 passing, 270.0 rushing). Offensively, Louisville is led by Heisman Trophy favorite, Lamar Jackson who has accounted for a remarkable 46 TD’s (27 passing; 19 rushing). Jackson is averaging 289.8 passing yds/g and is the Cardinals leading rushing at 133.4 rushing yds/g. RB Brandon Radcliff (10.7 att/g, 76.8 yds/g, 6 TD) and RB Jeremy Smith (4.4 att/g, 30.8 yds/g, 7 TD) have been major contributors in the Cardinals backfield. James Quick (3.6 rec/g, 60.8 yds/g, 6 TD), Jamari Staples (3.4 rec/g, 52.6 yds/g, 2 TD), Cole Hikutini (3.8 rec/g, 52.6 yds/g, 6 TD), and Jaylen Smith (2.2 rec/g, 48.7 yds/g, 6 TD) are the leading receivers for Louisville. Defensively, Louisville is holding their opponents to an average of 21.3 ppg on 303.3 total yards per game (210.5 passing, 92.8 rushing).

The Houston Cougars won their 2nd straight game and improved to 8-2 (5-2 AAC) on the season after defeating the Tulane Green Wave, 30-18, this past Saturday. Houston used a big 1st half to take a 28-10 lead at halftime and was able to hold on for the victory without scoring any offensive points in the 2nd half. Houston was outgained by Tulane by a 341-287 margin and lost the turnover battle by a 2-1 margin. Leading the way for the Cougars was QB Greg Ward Jr. who completed 18 of 30 passes for 189 yards and 2 TD’s while also adding a rushing TD. On the season, Houston is averaging 37.6 ppg on 452.4 total yards per game (283.8 passing, 168.6 rushing). Offensively, Houston has been led by QB Greg Ward Jr. who has accounted for 25 TD’s (16 passing, 9 rushing). Ward Jr. is averaging 289.8 passing yds/g and 47.7 rushing yds/g. Duke Catalon has been the main threat in the backfield for the Cougars and has 2 TD’s while averaging 68.5 rushing yds/g. Linell Bonner (7.6 rec/g, 86.0 yds/g, 2 TD), Chance Allen (4.4 rec/g, 63.7 yds/g, 3 TD), and Steven Dunbar (4.3 rec/g, 58.5 yds/g, 5 TD) are biggest threats at the receiver position for Houston. Defensively, Houston is holding their opponents to an average of 21.3 ppg on 303.3 total yards per game (210.5 passing, 92.8 rushing).

The Cardinals are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and 29-13-1 ATS in their last43 road games. The Cougars are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. ACC opponents however, just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Louisville surprisingly couldn’t get their explosive offense going until the 4th quarter against Wake Forest however, the Cardinals did show how dangerous this team can be with Lamar Jackson leading the way. Houston enters this game with a solid 8-2 record however, the Cougars just don’t seem to have the same energy as they did at the beginning of the season and has struggle getting convincing wins against some of bottom teams of the AAC. This line has yet to be released but I’m currently leaning towards taking Louisville to cover a reasonable spread here as I think Cardinals will come out playing hard in this one knowing that their right back in the CFF Playoff picture once again.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 12
By Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Nov. 17

LOUISVILLE at HOUSTON... UH won LY at Papa John’s 34-31, and Cougs 7-0-1 as dog since 2014, 11-1-1 since 2013. Though UH no covers last 5 TY and 0-4-1 vs. line at TDECU Stadium. Just 5-12-1 vs. line at new stadium since 2014. Petrino has only covered 2 of last 6 TY.

Slight to Houston, based on team trends.


ARKANSAS STATE at TROY...Red Wolves rolling again with wins and covers last four TY, they also closed fast in 2015 when covering 6 of last 7. Ark St 23-9 vs. spread last seven games of reg season since 2012. Also 5-1 last six as Sun Belt dog.

Arkansas State, based on recent trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cards, Cougars hook up

Thursday College Football Betting Preview
Louisville Cardinals vs. Houston Cougars

Odds: Louisville (-14); Total set at 69.5

Thanks to one of the wildest college football Saturday's we've seen in years where #2, #3, and #4 in the rankings all lost outright, the one-loss Louisville Cardinals are definitely back in the mix to make the playoffs. Louisville started off extremely slow last week as they trailed Wake Forest by a 12-3 score at half (Louisville was -34.5), but got their act together in the second half and ended up winning 44-12.

That final score made the game look like more of a blowout than it really was, but with all the upsets around the nation on Saturday, Louisville was happy to get the win and survive.

Louisville has a much tougher test ahead of them on Thursday night as they go to Houston to play the 8-2 SU Cougars. Houston has not lost at home all year long (6-0 SU) and upset this same Cardinals team as 13.5-point underdogs on Louisville's home field a year ago.

QB Lamar Jackson was sharing time at QB during that game, but his stat line of 1 TD and 2 INT passing, and 12 rushes for 16 yards likely saw him take fewer snaps then he would have liked. This year it's obviously a different story with Jackson as he should end up winning the Heisman Trophy, and the Cardinals are going to need a Heisman-type performance out of him this week if they want to win and survive again.

Both of these teams have high-powered offenses that can score in a hurry when they are on, and with Houston QB Greg Ward Jr likely to play through a sore shoulder here, we could very well have a shootout on our hands.

Louisville's offense started to hit their stride in the second half last week and hopefully for Cardinals fans that carries over to Thursday. Louisville started the year on a tear offensively putting up 70, 62, 63, and 59 points in their first four games, but since then they've only topped the 50-point mark twice.

Chances are they won't need to score that many to survive this showdown, but 40+ is definitely a reasonable number that Louisville has to be shooting for. They really feel like turnovers at critical points in the game last year (2 Ints and 2 fumbles lost) cost them the W and they aren't about to make the same mistake again this season.

Houston has a decent offense as well as they had a stretch of five straight games of 40 or more points earlier this season but have cooled off a bit since then. With the decreased point production by the offense, the losing ATS results have followed as the Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games, and have gone 'under' the total in three straight.

Obviously part of that is the fact that QB Greg Ward Jr has been battling injuries, but healthy or not they are going to need him to get back to scoring around 40 points this week to give themselves a shot.

Therefore, rather than looking at the side in this game, it's the total that caught my eye as it seems a few points too low. Last year's meeting finished with 65 points and that was in spite of five combined turnovers between the two teams. Both offenses were moving up and down the field on one another (25 first downs apiece) and it's not hard to argue that both QB's are much better then they were a year ago.

Louisville is on a 8-1 O/U run away from home and are 9-3 O/U when coming off a win. That road mark gets even better when facing a winning team at home as the Cardinals are 4-0 O/U in their last four tries in that scenario, and they've got a 9-4 O/U mark in their last 13 Thursday games. Houston doesn't seem to mind the short week either as they are 9-3 O/U on Thursdays, and are 35-17-1 O/U after allowing less than 20 points last time out.

This is one of those “statement game” opportunities for Louisville to make their case as a playoff team and if they are going to make a statement like that it's going to be because of Lamar Jackson's stellar play. Houston has to figure that they won't be able to stop Jackson and the Cardinals offense, simply do their best to contain them, and hope their own offensive unit puts up big numbers as well. Either way we should see a back-and-forth contest here with plenty of points.

Best Bet: Over 69.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview and Prediction: Arkansas State Red Wolves (5-4) at Troy Trojans (8-1)
By David Racey
Thursday, November 17, 2016 at 9:30 pm (Veterans Memorial Stadium)
The Line: Troy Trojans -9 -- Over/Under:
TV: ESPNU

The Arkansas State Red Wolves will travel to play the Troy Trojans in a Sun Belt college football game on Thursday night.

The Troy Trojans are 8-1 (5-0) this season after beating Appalachian State by a score of 28-24 in their last game. Troy is tied for the Sun Belt Conference lead with Arkansas State this season. The Troy offense is averaging 38.1 points per game with 197.4 rushing yards and 276.6 passing yards per game. Brandon Silvers is completing 63.5% of his passes for 2302 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions for Troy. Jordan Chunn has rushed for 1028 yards and 10 touchdowns, while Josh Anderson has added 221 yards and 1 touchdown for Troy. Deondre Douglas has caught 49 passes for 532 yards and 5 touchdowns, while Emanuel Thompson has added 49 catches for 470 yards and 5 scores for the Trojans. The Troy defense is giving up 21.6 points per game with 105.4 rushing yards and 265.1 passing yards per game. William Lloyd has led the Troy defense with 43 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, and 1 sack, while Cedarius Rookard has added 33 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, and 2 interceptions. Ryan Kay has gone 14-18 on field goals, with a long of 47 yards.

The Arkansas State Red Wolves are 5-4 (5-0) this season after beating New Mexico State by a score of 41-22 in their last game. Arkansas State has won 5 straight games and is tied for the lead in the Sun Belt standings. The Arkansas State offense is averaging 26 points per game with 243.4 passing yards and 137.9 rushing yards per game. Justice Hansen is completing 58.5% of his passes for 1793 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions for Arkansas State. Warren Wand has rushed for 607 yards and 5 touchdowns, while Johnston White has added 356 yards and 3 scores for the Red Wolves. Blake Mack has caught 29 passes for 522 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Warren Wand has added 18 passes for 207 yards and 3 touchdowns for Arkansas State. The Arkansas State defense is giving up 25 points per game with 181.1 rushing yards and 230.3 passing yards per game. Xavier Woodson-Luster has led the Arkansas State defense with 68 tackles and 3.5 tackles for loss, while Money Hunter has added 59 tackles and 1 interception. J.D. Houston has gone 9-14 on field goals, with a long of 43 yards.

Arkansas State is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games. The under is 5-1-1 in Arkansas State’s last 7 games. Troy is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games. The under is 6-1-1 in Troy’s last 8 conference games. The over is 4-1 in these two teams last 5 meetings.

These teams come into this game battling for the lead in the conference standings. Troy will have the advantage of being at home and having the better record, but Arkansas State has been red hot in their last 5 games. Troy looks to have the better offense and I think that will be the difference in this game.

DAVID'S PICK
Troy Trojans -9

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 12
By Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Nov. 17

LOUISVILLE at HOUSTON... UH won LY at Papa John’s 34-31, and Cougs 7-0-1 as dog since 2014, 11-1-1 since 2013. Though UH no covers last 5 TY and 0-4-1 vs. line at TDECU Stadium. Just 5-12-1 vs. line at new stadium since 2014. Petrino has only covered 2 of last 6 TY.

Slight to Houston, based on team trends.


ARKANSAS STATE at TROY...Red Wolves rolling again with wins and covers last four TY, they also closed fast in 2015 when covering 6 of last 7. Ark St 23-9 vs. spread last seven games of reg season since 2012. Also 5-1 last six as Sun Belt dog.

Arkansas State, based on recent trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday Night Football betting preview: Saints at Panthers

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 52)

The New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers won't have long to stew following heart-wrenching defeats as the NFC South rivals tangle on Thursday night at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C. The Saints fell on the wrong end of history on Sunday when they saw an extra point returned for a defensive two-point conversion in a 25-23 setback to Denver while the Panthers let a 14-point fourth-quarter lead evaporate in a 20-17 loss to Kansas City.

"I think (the short turnaround is) a good thing because all you want to do is get back on the field as fast as you can," New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees said. Brees (NFL second-best 2,992 yards) torched Carolina in the first encounter, throwing for 465 yards and four touchdowns before rookie Wil Lutz drilled a 52-yard field goal with 11 seconds remaining in a 41-38 win on Oct. 16. Cam Newton had a strong performance in his own right with three touchdowns (two passing, one rushing) against the Saints, but the reigning NFL MVP ignited the meltdown against the Chiefs as his ill-advised pass was intercepted by Eric Berry and returned 42 yards for a score. "What we've done is put our backs completely against the wall. There is no room for error now," coach Ron Rivera said of the cellar-dwelling Panthers, who are saddled with an 0-3 mark in the division.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NBC, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Panthers opened as 4-point home favorites and that line was bet down to -3 before recovering slightly to the current number of -3.5. The total hit the board at 51 and was bumped up a full point to 52 by Tuesday afternoon.

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a perfect night for football at Bank Of America Stadium on Thursday night. Conditions are expected to be clear throughout the day with game-time temperatures in the mid-50's and barely a whisper of wind (1 mph).

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Both the Saints and Panthers look to recover off of demoralizing losses in week ten. Oddly enough the main reasoning behind the Panthers loss is a continuation of their earlier matchup against the Saints. They've been able to put together two halves of consistent football. Will the Saints find the same success on the road?" - Zack Cimini.

INJURY REPORT:

Saints - S K. Vaccaro (Probable, possible suspension), RB D. Lasco (Questionable, hamstring), T T. Armstead (Questionable, leg), WR T. Lewis (Questionable, undisclosed), LB S. Anthony (Questionable, hamstring), CB D. Breaux (Questionable, leg), RB T. Cadet (Questionable, toe), LB D. Ellerbe (Questionable, quadricep), P T. Morstead (Questionable, ankle), DL D. Onyemata (Questionable, knee), OL A. Young (Questionable, undisclosed).

Panthers - C R. Kalil (Probable, shoulder), RB J. Stewart (Probable, undisclosed), LB S. Thompson (Questionable, knee), S C. Jones (Questionable, concussion), DT K. Love (Questionable, knee), C G. Gradkowski (Questionable, knee), LB A. Klein (Questionable, concussion), TE E. Dickson (Questionable, calf), T M. Oher (Out, concussion).

ABOUT THE SAINTS (4-5 SU, 6-3 ATS, 5-4 O/U): Brandin Cooks enjoyed a career day in his previous encounter with Carolina, highlighting his career-high 173-yard performance with an 87-yard touchdown. The lengthy score began a string of four touchdowns in the last five games for the 23-year-old Cooks, who leads the team with six TDs and 694 yards receiving. Fellow wideout Michael Thomas leads rookies in catches (51), receiving yards (613) and touchdown receptions (five), but was held to his lowest yardage total (40) on Sunday and also lost a pair of fumbles - his first two of the season. Willie Snead, a former member of the Panthers' practice squad, had two touchdowns on Sunday, marking the first time he reached the end zone since the first two weeks of the season.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (3-6 SU, 2-6-1 ATS, 5-4 O/U): Newton has plenty of weapons at his disposal as he tries to exploit a Saints defense that is yielding an NFL fourth-worst 400.6 yards per contest. Kelvin Benjamin looks to atone after his costly fumble led to the Chiefs' game-winning field goal with another strong outing versus New Orleans, against which he reeled in eight receptions on 14 targets in the first meeting. Fellow wideout Devin Funchess had a touchdown reception on Sunday against Kansas City and also had a 17-yard catch for a score in the first encounter with the Saints. Greg Olsen had six catches for 94 yards in the first meeting with New Orleans and leads all tight ends with 50 receptions and 712 yards receiving.

TRENDS:

* Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Panthers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Over is 8-0 in Saints last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The road team underdog New Orleans Saints are picking up 62 percent of the point spread action and Over is grabbing 75 percent of the totals wagers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's Top Action

NFL Week 11 Thursday Night Football Betting Preview
New Orleans Saints (4-5 SU; 6-3 ATS) vs. Carolina Panthers (3-6 SU; 2-6 ATS)

Odds: Carolina (-3); Total set at 52.5

Week 11 of the NFL season gets going with a NFC South showdown between two teams that are watching their seasons teeter on the brink of elimination. It's not quite panic time in New Orleans or Carolina with six games remaining after this one, but the loser of this contest is likely going to have too much ground to make up in the NFC to remotely consider a run at the playoffs. The stakes are getting higher and higher each week in the NFL and it will be interesting to see which team comes out ahead in this one.

New Orleans took the first meeting between these two by a 41-38 score a little over a month ago as they won it with a FG with 11 seconds remaining in the game. These two teams traded big plays and points with one another all afternoon, and it was the second straight meeting that ended with a score of 41-38.

In fact, three of the last four meetings between these two teams have seen the winner put up 41 points so it's no surprise to see a total of 52.5 get posted for this game.

Yet, while many believe - and for many good reasons statistically – that we will have another shootout between these rivals, I'm not so sure that will be the case. Yes, both teams are statistically poor on defense and the strength on both sides is the ability to put up points in a flurry, but the stakes are much higher in this matchup then they were a month ago and we should see these defenses step up a bit.

For one, the Saints defense appears to be playing a little better at the same time their offense has been stalling. Three of the last four Saints games have cashed 'under' tickets, and the only 'over' in that span came on the road in a blowout win over San Francisco where it was clear New Orleans let up in the second half. New Orleans is also on a 0-3-1 O/U run in their last four appearances on TNF and have a 2-5 O/U run going on the road.

Meanwhile, as the Panthers try to climb out of this hole they dug for themselves this year, it's been the defense that has been carrying the weight. They held Kansas City to 3 points in the first half last week before multiple turnovers by Carolina's offense put them in bad shape numerous times and cost them the game.

The week before that they held the Rams to just 10 points, and while no one is comparing those offenses to what the Saints bring to the table, the Panthers defense should rise up to the challenge again this week.

We also can't ignore the complete ineptitude the Panthers offense has shown the past two weeks. Cam Newton and company were shut out in the second half against KC, and the fact that they only managed 13 points – with only two FG's in the second half of that Rams game is a huge cause for concern.

Carolina realized in that first meeting with New Orleans that their chances for success decrease greatly when the game turns into a shootout and at 3-6 SU, it is the Panthers who definitely have more on the line this week.

Best Bet: Under 52.5 points

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Thursday’s games

Louisville won its last five games since Clemson loss by average score of 41-14; Cardinals were upset 34-31 at home by Houston LY- they beat Cougars 20-13 in ’13- this is their first visit here since 2004. Cardinals are 3-2 as road favorites this year, with wins by 34-31-7-45 points, plus the 42-36 loss at Clemson. Houston started season by upsetting Oklahoma, but later lost at Navy, SMU and is 0-5 vs spread in its last five games. Cougars passed for 320+ yards in five of first six games, but have been under 260 in last four. ACC non-conference road favorites are 5-3 vs spread; AAC home underdogs are 3-4.

Troy is 8-1, with only loss 30-24 at Clemson; they covered only one of last four games, are 2-2 as home favorites this year, winning home games by 46-10-21-4 points- they had tough 28-24 win over Appalachian State five days ago, while ASU cruised in its game Saturday. Arkansas State won its last three games with Troy, beating Trojans 41-34 in each of last two meetings; teams split last four meetings played here. ASU won/covered its last five games after an 0-4 start, with only road win in that stretch 31-16 (-4.5) at Georgia State. Sun Belt home favorites are 7-11 vs spread in league play this year.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free NFL Picks: New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers Odds & Predictions
by Alan Matthews

Here we go again, another Thursday night matchup that leaves a lot to be desired this week as New Orleans visits NFC South rival Carolina in a matchup of teams with losing records. But I'm pretty happy with the NFL right now after an absolutely fabulous Sunday of action that saw some pretty incredible finishes. Unfortunately for the Saints and Panthers, they were on the wrong end of two of the most gut-wrenching regular-season losses you will ever see.

You can probably rule out the loser of this game making the playoffs with the Saints at 4-5 and the Panthers at 3-6. Although Atlanta is only 6-4 atop the NFC South and the Falcons have tough games this week and next against Arizona and Kansas City, albeit both at home. The Falcons visit Carolina in Week 16 and host New Orleans in Week 17 in what would be the final NFL game at the Georgia Dome unless the Falcons do get a home playoff game. Atlanta currently holds the head-to-head tiebreaker with both New Orleans and Carolina. Don't rule out Tampa Bay (4-5) winning the division, either.

Perhaps Panthers fans can take solace in knowing that four teams to start 3-6 since the playoffs expanded in 1990 have made it: 1994 Patriots, 1995 Lions, 1996 Jaguars and 2012 Redskins. In all but one case, the 3-6 team won out to make the postseason. I honestly give Carolina little chance as after this game it goes to Oakland and Seattle in back-to-back weeks and probably loses those. So we should have a new NFC champion.

Saints at Panthers Betting Story Lines

I was one of those fans happy that the NFL before last season moved the extra-point try from a total gimme kick to a 33-yard try. I actually wish the league would move it back even further so more coaches might go for 2 points, but that's an argument for another day. As part of moving the PAT back, the league also instituted a rule that the defense could return a blocked or missed kick for 2 points. That has happened a couple of times but never like Sunday in New Orleans.

The Saints had tied Denver at 23 on a spectacular Drew Brees-to-Brandin Cooks 32-yard TD pass with 1:22 to go. If you watched the game, and I did, the sideline was still celebrating when Will Lutz lined up for the PAT -- hit that and the Saints probably win because I'm not trusting Trevor Siemian to lead a two-minute Denver offense into field-goal range. But the Broncos had a special play called where one member of the team was to hold down the New Orleans center after the snap so another guy could leap over and block the kick. That's legal as long as the leaping guy doesn't touch the offensive lineman. It worked perfectly as Justin Simmons cleared the Saints' snapper and smothered the kick. It went straight to Will Parks, who ran it 84 yards for the 2 points and the victory (after the Broncos then recovered a New Orleans onside kick). It was the first time in league history the winning points were scored via the new PAT rule. Did Parks step out of bounds on his way down the sideline? I sure thought so, but Parks had white shoes on against the white sideline, and apparently review was not clear enough to overturn it. What a devastating loss.

Brees had another great game in throwing for 303 yards and three scores but also with two picks. He became the third NFL player to throw 450 career TDs, joining Peyton Manning (539) and Brett Favre (508). I believe Brees gets that record eventually. The Saints defense is usually the weak link of the team but it played fairly well Sunday in holding the Broncos to 103 yards on 37 rushing attempts, forcing two turnovers and sacking Siemian six times. But New Orleans couldn't run the ball itself and gave it away four times.

Carolina lost in equally painful fashion. The Panthers dominated the visiting Chiefs in the first half of Sunday's game, but Kansas City seemed to steal momentum with a field goal right before intermission and a 17-3 deficit. There was no scoring again until the fourth quarter, with the Chiefs tying it on an Eric Berry 42-yard interception return of a Cam Newton pass and then a 33-yard field goal with 4:25. The media in Charlotte call Panthers coach Ron Rivera by the moniker or "Riverboat Ron" because he will take a lot of chances. Carolina had possession at its own 20 with 29 seconds to go and opted to not play conservative and for overtime.

Big mistake.

Newton's first pass was complete to Kelvin Benjamin, but Chiefs Pro Bowl cornerback Marcus Peters brilliantly stripped out the ball. Kansas City recovered and won it on a 37-yard field goal with no time left -- the Chiefs have amazingly won two games this season when trailing by 17.

What a gutting loss for Carolina, which otherwise could have gotten to .500 in this game. Newton threw for 261 yards and a TD, but that costly pick was all his fault. He led the team in rushing with 12 carries for 54 yards and a score. Newton became only player in NFL history to have at least 20,000 passing yards and 3,000 rushing yards in his first six seasons. But he's not playing anywhere near his 2015 MVP level.

To be fair, the Carolina offensive line remains a major issue. Pro Bowl center Ryan Kalil (shoulder) has missed the past two games and left tackle Michael Oher (concussion) the past six. Carolina also lost punter Andy Lee, one of the game's best, to a hamstring injury vs. the Chiefs. He was placed on IR and the team signed punter Michael Palardy.

Saints at Panthers Betting Odds and Trends

Carolina is a 3-point favorite (-125) with a total of 52. On the moneyline, the Panthers are -175 and the Saints +155. On the alternate lines, Carolina is -4 (+108), -3.5 (+100) and -2.5 (-150). New Orleans is 6-3 against the spread (4-0 on road) and 5-4 "over/under" (2-2 on road). Carolina is 2-6-1 ATS (2-3 at home) and 5-4 O/U (2-3 at home).

The Saints are 6-1 ATS in their past seven vs. the NFC South. They are 6-2 ATS in their past eight after a loss but have covered just three of their past 16 in November. The Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their past seven on Thursday. They are 4-1-1 in their past six in November. The over is 8-0 in New Orleans' past eight vs. teams with a losing record. The over is 17-6 in Carolina's past 23 vs. the NFC. The over is 4-0 in the past four meetings. The Saints are 4-1 ATS in the past five.

Saints at Panthers Betting Prediction

New Orleans was a 2.5-point home underdog coming out of its bye in Week 6 but beat Carolina 41-38 on a Lutz 52-yard field goal with 11 seconds left. Brees threw for 465 and four scores. Newton went for 322 and two scores and also tied it late on a 2-yard TD run and then 2-point PAT run. The Saints were flagged for pass interference three times at or near the goal line, and the Panthers cashed in all three times with TDs.

I generally don't bet on the Saints away from home as Brees usually is much less effective, that perfect road ATS record aside this year. I like Carolina here in mega-desperation mode at home. But give the 2.5-point alternate line. Over the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Saints (4-5) at Panthers (3-6)

Date: November 17, 2016 8:25 PM EDT

CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- There's no time for the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers to bemoan their latest misfortunes.

They have a game to play.

Four days after both teams lost in devastating fashion because of late-game blunders, the teams collide Thursday night at Bank of America Stadium with still plenty at stake in the NFC South.

"That's one plus," Carolina coach Ron Rivera said. "We don't have to dwell (on the loss) for very long."

The Panthers (3-6) blew a 17-point lead and had two fourth-quarter turnovers that allowed the Kansas City Chiefs to escape with a 20-17 victory. New Orleans (4-5) was primed to knock off the Denver Broncos, but instead of a go-ahead extra-point kick the boot was blocked and returned for a two-point defensive conversion that resulted in New Orleans' 25-23 setback.

So for a pair of teams that looked ready to show movement in the standings, they're suddenly headed in the wrong direction.

The Thursday night tilt might be a tonic, at least for the team that comes out on top.

"I think it's a good thing because all you want to do is get back on the field as fast as you can," New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees said. "We've got to bounce back and find a way to get a win this week at Carolina."

Any Super Bowl hangover for the Panthers is so far in the past because the team is in danger of missing the playoffs altogether this season.

"What we've done is put our backs completely against the wall," Rivera said. "There is no room for error now. What we have to do is we have to go forward. I have to make sure we do that."

The Panthers continue to insist that there's time to put it together. A two-game winning streak before the late follies against Kansas City was evident of that.

"We've got a good team," Carolina linebacker Luke Kuechly said. "When you look at the season, it's not where you want to be but it's where we're at now. We've got to do our best to get this thing moving in the right direction."

There's a degree of optimism coming from the Panthers, who could benefit from other teams in the NFC South stalling at times as well.

"There's no need to panic," Carolina quarterback Cam Newton said. "When you look at it, whatever our record is, it's not good. But yet we have a locker room full of winners and a locker room full of guys full of fight and I know I am willing to go to battle with those guys. I can't wait until Thursday."

Yet the manner in which the Panthers and Saints lost last weekend means the team able to shake off those results best could be in the better situation for this week's game.

"These guys care so much," Brees said, referring to his teammates and the reaction to the bizarre outcome against Denver.

The Saints aren't short on experience in tight games, something they figure will eventually pay off.

"It's frustrating. We work too hard," Saints receiver Willie Snead said. "We're battle-tested, for sure. This is going to make us stronger."

While time is crucial with the quick turnaround for the next game, the midway point of the season has passed and the goal is to avoid future missed opportunities.

"It's going to be a short week for us and we have to get it together," Snead said.

While failing to defeat Denver was tough enough for the Saints, the next assignment is of utmost importance.

"Some lessons in our league are learned the hard way," New Orleans coach Sean Payton said. "The key is we have a quick turnaround. It's important it doesn't affect the next game."

The Saints were hampered by four turnovers in the Denver game, while both of Carolina's giveaways to Kansas City came in the fourth quarter.

For Carolina, which dropped a 41-38 decision last month at New Orleans, avoiding a season sweep is among the factors that makes the outcome this week extra vital. The result of the first matchup of the season hinged on Saints kicker Wil Lutz's 52-yard field goal with 11 seconds remaining.

Further complicating things for the Panthers is that they've gone 2-3 in home games and they're 0-3 against NFC South opponents.

This marks the return of Saints safety Roman Harper to Charlotte, where he played the last two seasons and started in a total of 37 regular-season and postseason games during that stretch.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 11
By Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Nov. 17

NEW ORLEANS at CAROLINA (NBC/NFL Network, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Saints have covered last three meetings, including wild 41-38 win on Oct. 16 at Superdome. Last four “over” in series, Saints “over” 25-16 since 2014. Brees also 5-0 as dog TY, 12-3-1 in role since 2014!
Tech Edge: Saints and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Week 11

Thursday Night

Saints (4-5) @ Panthers (3-6)— Favorites covered six of last seven Thursday night games. Both these teams suffered tough losses last week- NO lost on a blocked PAT, Panthers blew 17-6 lead with 12:00 to go. Carolina is 2-3 at home; four of their last five games overall were decided by exactly 3 points. Saints are 4-0 vs spread on road this season, 2-2 SU, with average total in those games, New Orleans (+2.5) won first meeting 41-38 in Superdome five weeks ago; Saints led 21-3 early on- Carolina tied game with 2:58 left but Lutz nailed 52-yard FG with 0:11 left for win. Carolina is 6-3 in last nine series games, winning three of last four played here. Underdogs are 3-1 vs spread in NFC South divisional games. Three of Saints’ last four games stayed under total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 11
By Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Nov. 17

NEW ORLEANS at CAROLINA (NBC/NFL Network, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Saints have covered last three meetings, including wild 41-38 win on Oct. 16 at Superdome. Last four “over” in series, Saints “over” 25-16 since 2014. Brees also 5-0 as dog TY, 12-3-1 in role since 2014!
Tech Edge: Saints and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Opening Line Report - Week 11
By Marcus DiNitto

Here are the opening betting lines for Week 11 of the 2016 NFL season, with insight from Ed Salmons, oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

Numbers listed are the Vegas consensus as of Sunday night at about 11 p.m. ET, and early moves and differences among sports books are also noted.

Thursday, Nov. 17

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-4)

The Westgate bookmakers opened Carolina -4.5 with a quick move to -4, and that’s where the rest of Vegas joined them. The number suggests the struggling Panthers are still better than the Saints.

“It’s hard to argue anymore for Carolina, the way they keep blowing games,” said Salmons. “But they’re better (that New Orleans) – they just don’t win.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Week 11

Thursday Night

Saints (4-5) @ Panthers (3-6)— Favorites covered six of last seven Thursday night games. Both these teams suffered tough losses last week- NO lost on a blocked PAT, Panthers blew 17-6 lead with 12:00 to go. Carolina is 2-3 at home; four of their last five games overall were decided by exactly 3 points. Saints are 4-0 vs spread on road this season, 2-2 SU, with average total in those games, New Orleans (+2.5) won first meeting 41-38 in Superdome five weeks ago; Saints led 21-3 early on- Carolina tied game with 2:58 left but Lutz nailed 52-yard FG with 0:11 left for win. Carolina is 6-3 in last nine series games, winning three of last four played here. Underdogs are 3-1 vs spread in NFC South divisional games. Three of Saints’ last four games stayed under total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's Top Action

NFL Week 11 Thursday Night Football Betting Preview
New Orleans Saints (4-5 SU; 6-3 ATS) vs. Carolina Panthers (3-6 SU; 2-6 ATS)

Odds: Carolina (-3); Total set at 52.5

Week 11 of the NFL season gets going with a NFC South showdown between two teams that are watching their seasons teeter on the brink of elimination. It's not quite panic time in New Orleans or Carolina with six games remaining after this one, but the loser of this contest is likely going to have too much ground to make up in the NFC to remotely consider a run at the playoffs. The stakes are getting higher and higher each week in the NFL and it will be interesting to see which team comes out ahead in this one.

New Orleans took the first meeting between these two by a 41-38 score a little over a month ago as they won it with a FG with 11 seconds remaining in the game. These two teams traded big plays and points with one another all afternoon, and it was the second straight meeting that ended with a score of 41-38.

In fact, three of the last four meetings between these two teams have seen the winner put up 41 points so it's no surprise to see a total of 52.5 get posted for this game.

Yet, while many believe - and for many good reasons statistically – that we will have another shootout between these rivals, I'm not so sure that will be the case. Yes, both teams are statistically poor on defense and the strength on both sides is the ability to put up points in a flurry, but the stakes are much higher in this matchup then they were a month ago and we should see these defenses step up a bit.

For one, the Saints defense appears to be playing a little better at the same time their offense has been stalling. Three of the last four Saints games have cashed 'under' tickets, and the only 'over' in that span came on the road in a blowout win over San Francisco where it was clear New Orleans let up in the second half. New Orleans is also on a 0-3-1 O/U run in their last four appearances on TNF and have a 2-5 O/U run going on the road.

Meanwhile, as the Panthers try to climb out of this hole they dug for themselves this year, it's been the defense that has been carrying the weight. They held Kansas City to 3 points in the first half last week before multiple turnovers by Carolina's offense put them in bad shape numerous times and cost them the game.

The week before that they held the Rams to just 10 points, and while no one is comparing those offenses to what the Saints bring to the table, the Panthers defense should rise up to the challenge again this week.

We also can't ignore the complete ineptitude the Panthers offense has shown the past two weeks. Cam Newton and company were shut out in the second half against KC, and the fact that they only managed 13 points – with only two FG's in the second half of that Rams game is a huge cause for concern.

Carolina realized in that first meeting with New Orleans that their chances for success decrease greatly when the game turns into a shootout and at 3-6 SU, it is the Panthers who definitely have more on the line this week.

Best Bet: Under 52.5 points

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Thursday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Aqueduct (4th) H Man, 5-1
(7th) Discreet Image, 5-1


Charles Town (1st) Adorable Twirl, 3-1
(7th) Allen's Castle, 3-1


Churchill Downs (4th) Mighty Mad, 3-1
(8th( Hippolyte, 6-1


Del Mar (2nd) Warrensdollarsigns, 3-1
(3rd) Tribal Tribute, 4-1


Delta Downs (5th) Fireman Isaac Max, 3-1
(7th) Iszzy Bull, 6-1


Golden Gate Fields (2nd) California Flash, 7-2
(3rd) Exactamente, 7-2


Gulfstream Park West (5th) Little United, 6-1
(6th) One Proud Wildcat, 6-1


Hawthorne (2nd) Side Pocket, 6-1
(5th) He's Dann Good, 7-2


Penn National (3rd) Dragon Five, 6-1
(5th) Saratoga Shiner, 3-1


Remington Park (7th) Sky Surfer, 6-1
(9th) Gentleman's Honor, 4-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Thursday 11/17 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF

Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 1,6,8/2,6/2,6/5,6,8/1,3,5,8,9 = $36

EARLY PICK 4: 5,6,8/1,3,5,8,9/9/2,10 = $30

LATE PICK 4: 2,10/2,7,8/4/1,2,8,10 = $24

MEET STATS: 10 - 42 / $61.30 BEST BETS: 2 - 4 / $6.00

SPOT PLAYS: 0 - 4 / $0.00

Best Bet: BUGGER BRUISER (9th)

Spot Play: ROYAL CANVAS (5th)


Race 1

(1) MADDYS CREDIT showed some life late in her comeback race. I'll give her another shot here, hoping she is sent for better position off the gate. (6) I WISH YOU WELL qualified sharply and she looks like the one to beat despite facing elders. (8) VOW TO WOW brings some decent form with her from Hoosier and she should be a threat here. (5) COLUMNIST can take a smaller share again while extending her winless record to 0-29.

Race 2

(2) WORK THAT MAGIC faces easier here and she should get an aggressive steer; top call in the opener. (6) MISSEDBYADAY has been pacing some decent final quarters despite being well back. If he is in range at the 3/4 here, he could spring an upset. (5) THE POWER OF MANY had equipment issues that eliminated him early last week. He can share here. (1) CHIC CHICK could sit a good trip here and emerge late with some trot.

Race 3

(2) AVATARTIST gets to drop to the bottom conditioned level here and he could take these all the way following a decent speed try a level higher last time. (6) WOGGY ROCKS typically races well here and he could wake up with a much better effort if he is sent for position at the start. (1) VITAL SIGN should improve with the move inside. (5) MITT JAGGER moves to the middle of the gate and he could be put into play early here by the circuit's hottest driver.

Race 4

(8) ROCKIN RONNIE paced home quickly last time to just miss. He looks best here vs. a suspect group. (6) HOOTER SHOOTER had late pace to offer in a good debut race; using. (5) TOY COP has had many chances, but Henry is likely to send him again which makes him a threat here. (3) HUGHGETTHECREDIT is likely to stick around for a share vs. these.

Race 5

(1) ROYAL CANVAS went a huge trip last time and he retains Henry here and gets a better post; top call. (3) JAC SPADE is rounding into his best form and he will pass them all one of these weeks. (8) CALGARY SEELSTER has a good shot of making front early here which could make him tough to beat. (9) TWIN B SHADOW is one that could finish on the edges at a price here and boost the tri or super payoff.

Race 6

(9) WAY OUTTA HERE trotted by his rivals like that were standing still last time. If he repeats that performance, the rest are racing for 2nd here. (5) P L HERCULES led most of the way vs. the choice last time. If that rival falters, this gelding should be the beneficiary. (3) MUSICAL SPELL can show more early zip here from an improved post and take a share. (10) CLASS ME NICE is one that frequently makes the ticket and he is worth a look at a big price here for the bottom exotic rungs.

Race 7

(2) LADY CRAZY can build off a decent WEG debut and Henry may get more aggressive with her this time. (10) CASIMIR OPERATIVE brings some great form with her shipping in, but she must overcome the worst post. (8) NORTHERN PRIMA is a good one to use on the bottom of the tri based on record and racing style. (5) P L JASMINE is another that will be passing rivals late.

Race 8

(7) SUMMIT CITY NATE is in solid form shipping in and this isn't the toughest field; slight nod. (2) DEWEYKEEPUMNWHY is an obvious threat on the class drop if he stays flat, but that could be a big 'if' the way he has been going lately. (8) MYSTERY BET has turned into a fringe player, but if the pace collapses late, he could pass them all. (4) COVERT OPERATIVE can take a slice here racing from close range.

Race 9

(4) BUGGER BRUISER takes a massive class drop here off a decent effort vs. much better. He should be tough to beat, but he will also be a very short price. (7) UF BETTORS HANOVER should revert to a stalking style here and he can take a big share vs. this group. (1) EVERY DAY raced well in his Woodbine debut and he can share here despite moving out of claimers. (6) FRANKIE BOY raced Monday night and didn't show much. Maybe he will improve her returning quickly if he goes.

Race 10

(1) MR MACH JIMMY drops into a claimer and moves into the top trainer's barn. I'll give him the nod, but he could be overbet here. (8) NOTETOSELF HANOVER fits this class perfectly and his racing style works well on this track; using. (2) LIL RICHIE has been close in this class twice straight and has the looks of one that Waples sends up the rail in deeps stretch; beware. (10) CAROLINA HURRICANE adds Lasix here and he could improve. (6) NEW STANDARD will be passing horses late for a share.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Thursday
By Mike Dempsey

In addition to the $1 million Delta Downs Jackpot (G3) and $400,000 Delta Downs Princess (G3) on Saturday we have a couple of good stakes to wager on at Aqueduct to look forward to—the $100,000 Notebook and the $150,000 Artie Schiller.

The Notebook will be contested at six furlongs on the main track for two-year-old state breds, drawing a field of 12 along with one also-eligible.

Eight of the runners are coming off maiden scores, while the main contenders figure to be Macho Miah, Eddie’s Gift, and Gold for King, each stakes placed against state breds.

The Artie Schiller will be contested at one mile on turf for three-year-olds and upward and drew a field of 10 along with two also-eligibles and a couple of main track only entrants.

There are some familiar names that will line up including Heart to Heart and Jay Gatsby, the one-two finishers in the Knickerbocker (G3) over yielding turf at Belmont Park on Oct. 10.

No turf stake in New York would be complete without at least either Kharafa and King Kreesa, who have both won over $1 million.

Blacktype had a three race winning streak snapped when third in the Knickerbocker and Phlash Phelps is coming in off a victory in the Maryland Million Turf in his last outing.

I will have selections for the Artie Schiller and the Delta Downs Jackpot in Saturday’s column.


Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Md Sp Wt (12:20 ET)
#4 Summer of Joy 5-2
#7 Iridium 2-1
#2 Hostilebutawesome 12-1
#8 Pinchpenny 7-2

Analysis: Summer of Joy is one of two in here sent out by the RRod barn. The filly was fifth in her debut at 7-1 at the Md State Fair and then last out showed improvement in a runner up finish at Belmont park fora $50,000 tag. She was bumped coming out of the gate, tracked thee early pace, made a good middle move and could not go with the winner late, beaten 3 1/4 lengths. She is out of the stakes winner La Princesse Jolie ($185,460) who has dropped four winners, top earner stakes winner Spectacular Sky ($288,985).

Iridium is also sent out by RRod and adds blinkers for her third career outing. She drops in for a tag after a fifth in her debut and a fourth last out, beaten double digit lengths in both trips. She catches an easier group here and Castellano takes the call back. The barn is 19% winners dropping runners from maiden special to maiden claiming.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 4,7 / 2,4,7,8
TRI: 4,7 / 2,4,7,8 / 1,2,4,7,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 7 OClm $75,000N1X (3:17 ET)
#1 Paz the Bourbon 3-1
#2 Out of Trouble 5-1
#7 Discreet Image 5-1
#9 Passporttovictory 15-1

Analysis: Paz the Bourbon is back on turf here after checking in a non-threatening sixth last out in the state bred Joe A Gimma over a wet main track going seven furlongs. The filly broke her maiden two back on turf at six furlongs in a sharp effort. She has enough pedigree to handle the stretch out to a mile, out of a More Than Ready mare that has dropped three other winners including one turf winner and dirt stakes winner Vinceramos ($281,786).

Out of Trouble faded to finish 12th last out in the Chelsey Flower going a mile on turf in her first start against winners. Sher broke her maiden two back in her turf debut in a gate to wire score. She is out of the dirt stakes winner Take Me Home Too ($73,903) who has dropped one other foal to race, stakes winner Bird of Trey ($176,749). She broke her maiden over firm footing two back and she should get ground more to her linking today.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,7,9
TRI: 1,2 / 1,2,7,9 / 1,2,4,7,9

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R1: #2 Hostilebutawesome 12-1
R3: #2 Kiss the Flag 8-1
R5: 32 Ocala Jim 12-1
R6: #3 Show Giant 10-1
R7: #9 Passporttovictory 15-1
R8: #2 Crowning Affair 8-1
R9: #1 Naqafeer 8-1
R9: #6 Simon Kenton 8-1

Good luck today!