Thursday 10/9/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Ellis Starr at Keeneland

Race #9 - Rating = 2


#9 Kitten's Journey - Fair odds 7/2
#1 Aniell - Fair odds 7/2
#10 Sweet Savoir Faire - Fair odds 9/2
#6 Jewelisa - Fair odds 9/2


Although no exactas or such are specifically recommended, this could be a great race to bet with a big field and if you consider the wagers also consider #2 Eskenformoney and #3 Zip Runner.

I don't usually pick first timers in turf routes but Kitten's Journey is a daughter of Kitten's Joy, whose progeny win at first asking going long on turf. The dam has had four foals race, all 4 winners and one first and the others having all run big early in their careers to prove the point. Leparoux rides and she could give a good account at first asking.

Aniell woke up in her 3rd start last out, first on turf, leading early and settling for 2nd behind next out winner Conquest Harlanate, from the same trainer. Her outside post may not be conducive to a horse with early speed but nevertheless she fits on all counts as a contender.

Sweet Savoir Faire tried turf and 2 turns for the first time last out in career start #2 and the result was a vast improvement off her debut as she rallied for 3rd of 9. Likely to improve again 2nd route and 3rd career start she could be sitting in the back early and pouncing late.

Jewelisa finished 5th in the same race Sweet Savoir Faire finished 3rd in but was only 3/4 of a length behind that one while rallying late as well and getting blinkers and a jockey change she has potential to leap frog the horse that her and post the upset in this wide open nightcap.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #3 - 1:54 PM

7.0 FURLONGS TURF FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $50,000.00 CLAIMING $48,000.00 PURSE

#8 MISSZIPPITYSLEWDA
#1 THUNDERING GALE
#4 SIMPLE LOVE
#7 NONNIE CONNIE

#8 MISSZIPPITYSLEWDA takes a class drop (-7) this afternoon, and has exceptional early speed abilities to compliment for this sprint at today's "specialized distance" of 7.0 furlongs on the turf, and has produced a quartet of "POWER RUNS" in her last five starts, hitting the board in three. Jockey Jose Ortiz and Trainer Michelle Nevin send her to the post ... they've hit the board with with an impressive 68% of nearly 100 entries saddled as a team to date, producing a equally impressive +77% return on investment in the process, which is based on a +28% win rate. #1 THUNDERING GALE has hit the board in each of her last four outings, with two of those efforts, including a win in her last start, also qualifying as "POWER RUNS."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Thursday 10/9 Analysis
By Greg Gangle

DRF HARNESS


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: LITTLE MISS SPORTY (7th)

Spot Play: PORSCHE SEELSTER (12th)


Race 1

(10) SUMTHINTOTALKABOUT shows a convincing qualifying win, comes from a capable barn and might offer a nice price from the outside post 10. (4) CHARLESTON SPRINGS draws well and finished a game third last week in this class for successful trainer Henriksen. (9) MAGIC MADNESS comes from the Maxwell barn, qualified very strong and is due for a big effort.

Race 2

(5) DOCS HOSS is fresh off a win for trainer Gallucci in this class and has been a top threat at this level all season. (9) RAYS SAN was a winner last week at Flamboro, comes from the Moreau barn and can overcome the outside. (2) EMERALD LEXUS will debut for trainer Auciello, draws inside and will offer a short price.

Race 3

(4) TYMAL ILLBTHERE has been consistent all season, shows the quickest speed and draws well. (2) MAGICAL LASS comes from the Norman barn, draws well and was a winner two back. (5) BATTLE IMAGE was a winner last week and appears to be rounding into form.

Race 4

(2) NINE LIVES HANOVER is fresh off a win and is capable of the class jump with an inside post. (1) NOBLE JILLY has a solid late kick and has been blessed with the rail. Look for her late. (5) J HIGH went a tough trip last week, but has won three of her last five.

Race 5

(6) BRITISH STEEL closed very well last week against Gold company and faces a much softer bunch. (3) FASHION GODDESS is a perfect one-for-one in Baillargeon’s care and begins inside. (4) OAKLEA WYATT has won four straight and shouldn’t get overlooked in here. He moves up in class, but has excellent gate speed.

Race 6

(10) CHEEKIE comes from the Jamieson barn, shows quick speed at The Red Mile and was a winner two back. (1) DUBLIN ROSE draws inside for a high percentage trainer and is lightly raced. (4) TESSA SEELSTER was a winner in her latest and appears to be rounding into form late in the season for Baillargeon.

Race 7

(1) LITTLE MISS SPORTY went a tough trip last week in just her third career start, but was a closing second two back. She looks like the filly to beat. (3) MISTRESS HILL will make her second career start, moves into the Auciello barn and kicked home in :27 4/5 last week. (10) YES YOU CAN comes from the Jamieson barn, shows quick speed and might offer a nice price from the outside post 10.

Race 8

(3) DELIRIUM finished a game third last week for new trainer Moreau and can only improve off that effort. (8) BELLA MASTER has hit the board in each of her last five starts, is versatile and gets Christoforou in the bike. (9) BADLANDS LOVE comes from the Johnson barn and was a winner two back.

Race 9

(6) ACAPULCO HALL was an easy winner last week for Zeron with a solid final frame. She draws well and put forth a convincing effort. (5) LEXUS ROCKY draws much better this week and has hit the board in two of his last three. (8) VIMY RIDGE VULCAN was a winner two back and should offer a price.

Race 10

(4) JUST PLAIN LUCK is fresh off a win last week in his debut in a claimer. He draws well once again and will offer a short price. (5) BETTORS DESTINY was a closing second last week, comes from the Johnson barn and is a logical option for the exactor. (7) USEFUL HANOVER has hit the board in each of his last two starts in this class.

Race 11

(5) IMPATIENCE comes from the Blais barn, shows the speed and is overdue for her first career win. (3) ARRIVISTA HANOVER qualified well and joins a soft field. She may offer a price and is worth considering off her qualifier. (7) CZECH WITH JAN has hit the board in each of her last two, and four of her last five.

Race 12

(5) PORSCHE SEELSTER is overdue for her second career win, draws inside and was a beaten favorite last week in this class. (3) A FEARLESS AFFAIR qualified well for trainer Robinson and closed off her mile very strongly. She has the speed and offers a lot of versatility. (7) SEAWIND GINGER was a winner two back for trainer Johnson and likely will offer a low price once again.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Thursday 10/9 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF HARNESS


MEET STATS: 302 - 1141 / $1,951.50 BEST BETS: 23 - 95 / $113.90

Best Bet: RINGSIDE MUSCLE (2nd)

Spot Play: BLUE FIN (4th)


Race 1

(2) YOUNG AMERICAN was sharp in victory last time out. Pacing miss is very capable of taking her second straight score from the 2-hole. (4) LITTLE MERMAID N just got up last out for win honors. (1) RUNAWAY ROSE could fare better from the rail slot.

Race 2

(7) RINGSIDE MUSCLE put in a nice rally last out for the show spot. Trotter can put his best foot forward. (2) COCOTIER has scored in his last two outings. (5) SAINT PATTYS DOLL was second best in her last trip.

Race 3

(2) NET JET's last try should be an indication she is ready to put it all together. (6) DELICIOUSLYNAUGHTY has fine speed and will be right in the mix. (4) EVERYMILEAMEMORY is off a good qualifier at Philly.

Race 4

(2) BLUE FINN has tactical speed and this gelding can get back on the winning track tonight. (3) TALKTOMECOURAGE N gets serious post relief. (4) ARDENS STORM N could land a share.

Race 5

(6) JANIE BAY moves down in class and that could help her cause against these. (1) BETTOR B GENUINE rallied strongly last out for the show spot. (5) BELLE BOYD is not out of this.

Race 6

(5) NO REAL SURPRISE has good tactical speed. Ready to pounce and score over this group. (1) HURTIN ALBERTAN should contend from the fence. (4) DRIVE EM COWBOY could be a factor in here.

Race 7

Let's try (1) IF I DIDNT CARE to get back to the winner's circle. The rail slot might be what she needs to get it done. (4) LITTLE MISS HENRY was caught for win honors last time out. (3) ARIADNE HANOVER has wheeled off two straight victories.

Race 8

(1) FLYING MOCHA is moving back to the inside where she got the job done from the 3-hole two trips ago; all systems go tonight. (2) SPRINGHOUSE STAR took the pocket route home for win honors. (5) BIJOU THEATER just got up for the victory in her previous outing.

Race 9

(1) WEEKEND GETAWAY moves to the fence and good to see Sears signs on to drive; the pick. (2) UBETTORBETURLIFE just missed the score in her last start. (7) GIVEITTOEMSTAIGHT was sent down the road last time out for all the glory.

Race 10

(1) STAR KEEPER makes her initial trip here and has good early pace. Can get the job done with a fine-timed drive from Stratton. (2) CAROLS DESIRE should do better from the two slot. (6) COOKING THE BOOKS is an upstate invader that was sharp in victory recently.

Race 11

Seems (5) IT REALLY MATTERS might be coming around to winning form, and this could be a good spot for this sophomore to make that happen. (1) LOLA DE VIE comes off a tough break at the start last time around, but she is clearly better than her latest. (4) BLUEBIRD KIDSQUEEN fits well in here.

Race 12

(2) I DO IT MYSELF is clearly knocking at the door. Pacing miss can put her best foot forward for all the marbles. (3) HOOSIER CHATTER was second best in her last trip to the post. (6) MISS ANNIE J could have a say in the outcome.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Thursday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Belmont Park (7th) Run a Dubb Dubb, 6-1
(8th) Artic North, 3-1

Belterra (4th) Hope's Frog Song, 7-2
(7th) Upper Arlington, 7-2

Charles Town (1st) Mr. B.H. Tinkle, 4-1
(8th) Helena Hurry, 7-2


Delaware Park (3rd) Very Lucky, 3-1
(6th) Hobe Wins, 4-1


Finger Lakes (2nd) Baby at the Park, 4-1
(5th) Magooby, 7-2


Gulfstream Park West (3rd) Delta Bluesman, 4-1
(8th) Karate Jack, 3-1


Hawthorne (2nd) Metonga Mist, 4-1
(7th) Unlawful Detainer, 5-1


Indiana Grand (6th) Mama Lock, 4-1
(7th) Venus de Milo, 3-1


Keeneland (1st) Omarvelous, 3-1
(7th) Coalport, 3-1


Laurel Park (2nd) Another View, 3-1
(7th) Gypsy Baron, 3-1


Penn National (3rd) One Tough Muffit, 7-2
(8th) Start Out Calm, 4-1


Remington Park (7th) Always a Diamond, 3-1
(8th) Hidden Edge, 4-1


Santa Anita (2nd) Jet Trick, 3-1
(5th) Go Black Tie, 9-2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Razor Sharp

FREE PICK FOR THURSDAY:Take CHICAGO -120 over Dallas

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Computer Sports

Free Selection Thursday NHL: Columbus -125

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dr. Vegas

Free Selection Thursday Hockey: Philly -140

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Red Dog Sports

Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Buffalo Sabres

Bonus Play Under 5.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nick Parsons

Winnipeg Jets vs. Arizona Coyotes

1* Bonus Play Under 5.5

I am playing the under in the Winnipeg versus Phoenix game. Winnipeg is 1-8-1 in their last 10 games in Arizona. The Jet’s offense is not the most consistent in the league and the Phoenix offense is not much better. Arizona is on a 21-8-1 under run for the total. Their offense hasn’t gotten any better over the offseason losing two of their top five most productive players. The Coyotes defense is good and in their last 16 games at home the under is 13-3. In the last 5 games between the two the under is 4-1.

I know this is a new season but those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it. I am playing on the under today and waiting for both teams to show me they can score this season!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Thursday 9:05 PM NHL

(69) COLORADO AVALANCHE at (70) MINNESOTA WILD

Take: (69) COLORADO AVALANCHE +125

Colorado was a huge surprise last season. The Avalanche weren’t expected to be anything special. But they responded well to the arrival of Patrick Roy as head coach, and the Avs ended up having a great regular season.

A look beyond the record indicates the Avalanche got pretty fortunate as they outperformed their metrics by a substantial margin. So I have them circled as a team that’s likely to show some decline this season, as a regression of sorts seems very likely to me. Nevertheless, this opener is one I circled as a spot to look at Colorado in the role of road dog.

As great as the regular season was for the Avs, their lasting memory from the playoffs is not nearly as pleasant. Colorado sprinted to a 2-0 lead in its series with Minnesota. But the Wild came roaring back and ended up winning the series in seven games. The reality is that Minnesota was the completely superior team in that series, and they probably should have won it a lot easier than they did.

But regardless of who dominated, there has to be some revenge on the minds of the road team tonight. That Game Seven loss was really tough, as the Avs lost a late lead in regulation and then were on the wrong side come overtime. Winning tonight cannot wipe that result out, and in fact it’s small consolation.

However, I believe the revenge motivation gets increased with this being the season opener for both teams. The very last Avalanche memory from last season is having to do the handshake routine with the team that ousted them, and that had to sting. What better way to start a new season than by spoiling the home opener for the team that knocked them out?

I think the Wild are very likely to be a better team than Colorado this season. They’ve added some offensive punch with Vanek, and as previously stated, my feel is that Colorado is going to slip some. But I’m going to play the situation and the price here. I see this as a decent mental spot for the visitors, and the dog odds are generous enough to take the plunge tonight with the Avalanche.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 9

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MONTREAL (1-0-0-0, 2 pts.) at WASHINGTON (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/9/2014, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-2 (+1.3 Units) against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 3-2-0 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+5.0 Units)

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ANAHEIM (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) at PITTSBURGH (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/9/2014, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-0 (+2.3 Units) against the spread versus ANAHEIM over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 2-0-0 straight up against ANAHEIM over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.0 Units)

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NEW JERSEY (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) at PHILADELPHIA (0-1-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/9/2014, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW JERSEY is 5-3 (+1.7 Units) against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
NEW JERSEY is 5-3-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.7 Units)

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COLUMBUS (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) at BUFFALO (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/9/2014, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLUMBUS is 73-149 ATS (+283.2 Units) in road games first half of the season since 1996.
BUFFALO is 21-61 ATS (+87.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLUMBUS is 2-1 (+0.1 Units) against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
COLUMBUS is 2-1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.2 Units)

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BOSTON (1-0-0-0, 2 pts.) at DETROIT (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/9/2014, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 4-5 (+0.7 Units) against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 5-4-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.8 Units)

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FLORIDA (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) at TAMPA BAY (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/9/2014, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 7-1 (+5.5 Units) against the spread versus FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 7-1-0 straight up against FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+4.0 Units)

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OTTAWA (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) at NASHVILLE (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/9/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OTTAWA is 141-166 ATS (-60.9 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NASHVILLE is 1-1-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.1 Units)

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NY RANGERS (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) at ST LOUIS (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/9/2014, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 2-0 (+2.0 Units) against the spread versus NY RANGERS over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 2-0-0 straight up against NY RANGERS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.1 Units)

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CHICAGO (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) at DALLAS (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/9/2014, 8:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 6-1 (+3.8 Units) against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 6-1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+3.1 Units)

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COLORADO (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) at MINNESOTA (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/9/2014, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 55-34 ATS (+14.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 17-9 ATS (+26.7 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 8-8-0 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
11 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+6.9 Units)

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CALGARY (0-1-0-0, 0 pts.) at EDMONTON (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/9/2014, 9:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 5-4 (+1.9 Units) against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 5-4-0 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.3 Units)

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WINNIPEG (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) at ARIZONA (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/9/2014, 10:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 3-0 (+3.9 Units) against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 3-0-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.9 Units)

 

[Bobbyhill]

Scott Delaney

60 Dimes Colts/Texans Over 47

Al DeMarco

10 Dimes Colts -3

Craig Davis

60 Dime Colts -3

 

[ceeDOTesquire]

does anyone have golden boy's (primetime cappers) picks? tia