Thursday 10/6/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Thursday 10/6 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


PICK 5: 3,7/1,3,5/1,6/1,5/1,7 = $9.60

EARLY PICK 4: 1,5/1,7/1,5,8/1,2,3,5 = $48

LATE PICK 4: 1,2,3,5/5/2,5,7/4,5,6,9 = $48

MEET STATS: 398 - 1176 / $2065.20 BEST BETS: 66 - 108 / $205.50

SPOT PLAYS: 23 - 108 / $157.90

Best Bet: BATOUTAHILL (8th)

Spot Play: MATTJESTIC TEMPO (4th)


Race 1

(7) LYRIC OF LIFE closed sharply over a very sloppy track last week now she attracts the leading driver. Expect a more aggressive steer here. (3) ON THE MINUTE MARK improved immediately in the new barn and looks like the main threat to the choice, who only beat him by 3/4 of a length last time. (5) ZAHARA SEELSTER is capable of better and has raced well for McNair in the past; consider for exotics. (8) LAURA HILL torched the chalk player's money last week, but she too is capable of better and could hit the ticket at a much better price this time.

Race 2

(1) WILL TAKE CHARGE had a good tightener for this Gold event vs. some older foes. I'll give him top call here. (5) ZAGSTER was really motoring late in the mile last time when coming off a month break. He can win this with a good trip. (3) MUSCLE HUSTLE has a great record but the month off could leave him a bit rusty here. I will play to beat him off the exacta but toss him in the Pick 5. (6) P L JERICO went a big first-up trip to win the Grassroots final. Don't take him too lightly here in his current sharp form.

Race 3

(1) BEE IN CHARGE raced tough against the best in North America most recently. He will be tough to beat here. (6) DIA MONDE drops out of the same races as the choice and could upset him with a good trip. (3) SASS rarely misses the board. He should get a beneficial following trip here. (2) TONY SOPRANO has had a lot of tough trips this year. The short field should help him here.

Race 4

(5) MATTJESTIC TEMPO has caught fire in this claiming class after having struggled most of the year vs. better; call to repeat. (1) LEAVING A LEGACY couldn't hold off the choice despite getting a good trip up front. Perhaps the wet track was a factor. (3) TOTAL KNOCKOUT is a threat if she can stay covered up until late as she did two starts back. (2) CHARMING HILL should get a better trip leaving from the inside and she can take a smaller share.

Race 5

(1) CORE FUSION never entered contention last week but he did show some late interest. The major post relief could be a big help in getting him his maiden score here. (7) STORMONT DUNDAS always looks good on paper and never gets there. Beware taking a short win price on him. (10) E T PHONE HOME closed impressively in his debut. He has some upside and should be a good price here due to his post. (9) WEVE HAD ENOUGH should be part of the early pace and stick around for a slice.

Race 6

(8) CONNIE MACH made a big move on a wet track but tired late from those efforts. She looks best here based on her mile two starts back. (5) CASIMIR OVERTHETOP gets Waples and a better post here; using at a price. (1) SANDY WIN has shown she is fast enough to win this and has a race over the track; consider. (4) ACEFOURTYFOUR ALEX is in great form and should be able to take a minor share, if not more.

Race 7

(5) JUST TOO SPOILED got an aggressive steer last time and was a predictable winner. She can double up with a similar steer. (1) HOT SPOT HANOVER moves inside off an upset win and she should be a major player here. (3) LUCKY PLAYER steps up off a sharp win and is another to consider for multi-race bets. (2) MY CREDITS GOOD is likely to show a lot more early speed this time and is yet another that could pop in a race that demands deep Pick 4 coverage.

Race 8

(5) BATOUTAHILL easily repelled a rival that had impressively won two straight leading to last week's race. This assignment looks no tougher; top call. (3) WHAMBAMTHANKUMAAM was a good third vs. non-winners of three and looks like the main danger here. (2) STONEBRIDGE PEACE takes a lot of slices. That pattern should hold here. (1) WINDSONGMUSCLELADY is capable vs. these if she can stay flat; consider for exotics.

Race 9

(5) STRONGRTHANDASTORM was listed early with a potential huge driver change here. Expect an aggressive steer if that’s the case. (7) BEACHES BE CRAZY can improve off her debut and is another that could be more forwardly-placed early. (2) TEARFUL OF HAPPY was a decent second in good time last time out but that was close to a month ago; mixed signals. (3) CLEAR IDEA takes a share every week and she should get a good trip near the front here.

Race 10

(9) ARCHANGEL THREE put up some serious splits last time and almost held on. A bit easier trip gets it done here. (4) SIR GALAHAD is in great form and gets a good post. He's the main threat. (6) MAYFIELD DUKE should show more here and he might get sent early; using. (5) SOLO STORY will be passing horses late for a share. (2) LIMA C ROCK races well from inner posts. He could better this placing.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Flamboro Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Post: 6:40 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 73 - Purse:$4800 - HORSES & GELDINGS - CLAIMING $8500. - FOR N/W $40000. LIFETIME
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 6 BROADVIEW BRIDGE 5/2
# 4 TRISUN 4/1
# 1 TWIN B SHADOW 9/5

Look no further than BROADVIEW BRIDGE as the wager in here. Reason to like this colt as he has in the sulky one of the best drivers in win percentage this last month. Looks like a strong pick in this group of animals and his better than average winning percentage says he has the raw talent to end up in the winner's circle in this event. This horse and Cullen have some sort of connection going. In the money figure for this combo is high. TRISUN - Win rate for this driver-trainer is a sparkling 22 percent - tremendous likelihood. Could surprise us at a good price. Don't leave out. TWIN B SHADOW - His 74 avg has this gelding among the best speed ratings in here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Thursday 10/6 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF

MEET STATS: 246 - 1027 / $1,587.00

BEST BETS: 30 - 97 / $144.40

Best Bet: WESTERN BAYAMA (10th)

Spot Play: MILLWOOD FAITH N (3rd)


Race 1

(5) AMERICAN ALIVE took some of these most of the way on the lead but did not have enough gas in the tank and held second money last time out; all systems go to greet the cameraman for pictures. (4) WRAPPED TO GO came down the center of the track to run down the top pick recently; threat for the repeat. (2) GOTTA BE ME showed good speed but could not get past the top two in her latest; watch out.

Race 2

(5) KIDDIE MCCARDLE went evenly in her last trip to the post but if she reverts back to her September 15 start the rest will have to settle for minor awards. (2) MACY BLUE CHIP N gets post relief and Bartlett has the assignment; main danger. (1) ARABELLA J has good early zip and should be a factor from the fence.

Race 3

(4) MILLWOOD FAITH N Pacing mare is knocking at the door based on her last two tries; can get the job done with a well judged drive. (6) HER OWN LAND is another that can put her best foot forward and just missed glory by only a length. (2) BAD NIGHT MARE moves back to the NW7500 ranks where she got the job done two trips ago.

Race 4

(3) HEAVENS LEGACY closed sharply in her last start to lose the victory by a neck. Mare seems to be heading in the right direction and has every right to mow these down at her best. (1) CRUISINWITHMYBABY was sent by Dube down the road in her most recent event to take home top prize; dangerous again. (5) CLASSY LANE ROSE's last two tries were very sharp so she should not be counted out of this.

Race 5

(7) ROYAL ENGAGEMENT flashed good speed in her Philly finale so she might be ready to get back in winning form and has been facing better when she was here two starts ago; gets the call. (2) KAMWOOD LAUGHTER N took the pocket route last time out for all the glory; major player once again. (5) FOR THE LADIES N did not fire from the 8-hole last out but should do much better from door number five.

Race 6

Will take a shot with (4) ROCKIN ROBERT to get back to the winning groove and this gelding knows how to win at Yonkers, did get the job done with a pocket-rocket score at Philly three tries ago; threat at his best. (1) HI HO STEVERINO showed fine speed at Philly last out and now he is back at the Hilltop and retains the rail; must be considered. (3) MC RUSTY gets post relief and that should help his cause; we shall see.

Race 7

(3) ETERNAL RING Filly has put in two good efforts and gets a better draw; poised to boss these for all the glory. (1) GADSDEN HANOVER has good early pace, moves to the fence and gets Bartlett with the return call; dangerous. (2) SNOW CONE A was second best in her latest and figures to be right in the mix.

Race 8

(1) ROCK ABSORBER Gelding has tactical speed and moves back to the rail. Good to see Dube with the return drive after he got a feel for this 5-year-old pacer; rate and score. (3) SMOOTH CRIMINAL is a very consistent gelding with a down the road victory last time out; dangerous to repeat. (5) CHOCOLATE CRACKERS rallied strongly to nail down the victory last time out; don't overlook.

Race 9

(5) WE THINK ALIKE has hit the board 12 of 31 starts this year and this gelding has the tactical speed to pick them up and lay them down for all the marbles. (7) UNION MAN HANOVER was on the lead most of the way but was nailed in deep stretch last time around; big factor. (2) GYPSY LEATHER gets serious post relief and that should help her cause; maybe.

Race 10

(4) WESTERN BAYAMA's last start is an indication he is rounding back to winning form and trainer Forte keeps Brennan at the helm; the pick. (1) INVICTUS HANOVER beat lesser down the road last time out and now draws the fence; main danger. (2) DALHOUSIE DAVE here's another that went wire to window recently; not out of this.

Race 11

(2) B L CLASS ACT 9-year-old was sharp in his latest and this pacer is back at the NW15000 ranks; primed to take these to task for all the cash. (1) LILYS SWAN POND finally gets post relief and Brennan stays in the bike; main danger. (4) AGGRESSIVE has put in four good starts and in his last try just lost glory by a neck; watch out.

Race 12

(4) DUNE IN RED Mare is knocking at the door based on her last two starts. With a fine-timed drive she can make her return to the winner's circle. (2) SCOOTIN FOR JOY has been in the trifecta picture five starts in a row; big player. (7) OUR ELS DREAM N needs to revert back to her September 22nd start and in her last try at odds on she was shuffled; can be in the mix.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Monticello Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Post: 3:24 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 65 - Purse:$3800 - SIX Y/O UNDER W/O 2 BUT N/M/T 3 PM
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 2 ROY E LIZBIN 5/1
# 5 R BURNING ROSE 6/1
# 6 MORE BETTER 7/2

ROY E LIZBIN will have you running to the cashier's window today. He's racing in fine form, recording substantial TrackMaster Speed Ratings. An excellent contender. Enters this race with competitive TrackMaster class markings as compared to the field of starters - take a good look. Post 2 has been winning at an above average percentage, suggesting nice probability of success for this race. R BURNING ROSE - Pace makes the race is a favorite saying of this consortium. Pace figures here point to a substantial play. MORE BETTER - If effort in the last contest is representative, this contender will have a very really strong shot in this event. High last race TrackMaster SR.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 8 - Optional Claiming - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $9500 Class Rating: 81

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 8 ZOOMINFORGRADY 6/1

# 6 LD STREAKIN N LEAVIN 9/2

# 2 JB FIRST ROSE 10/1

ZOOMINFORGRADY looks to be a very good contender. With a respectable 92 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will definitely be a factor in this race. LD STREAKIN N LEAVIN - Could provide positive profits based on competitive recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 81. Recorded a competitive Equibase speed fig last time out.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Meadowlands - Race #3 - Post: 8:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 76

Rating:

#13 BUDDY'S TIZ (ML=6/1)
#10 GIRINE (ML=2/1)
#9 CHARLIE HAS HEART (ML=8/1)
#7 MOONLIT FRIDAY (ML=6/1)


BUDDY'S TIZ - This animal obviously likes the conditions for today's race. Has notched the highest speed rating on the turf at the dist/surf. When I handicap a turf race, I think sometimes class ratings are more important than speed figs. This magnificent animal has the highest average class in the entire bunch. Another way to judge class is earnings per start. This thoroughbred has the uppermost in the bunch. I think he'll be close at the finish. GIRINE - You always have to be on the lookout for bankroll building jockey/conditioner duos; we have one right here. This colt has a lot of ability on the turf. Could be long gone by the time they hit the eighth pole. This colt recorded a good speed fig of 80 in his last race. That speed rating should be lofty enough to triumph this time. CHARLIE HAS HEART - When Mangalee and Pimental join forces on horses the ROI has been fabulous at +51. Dropped down in class last time around the track, and keeps in that lower class level in this event. A good sign this animal is comfortable and ready to go. MOONLIT FRIDAY - Has unearthed a good situation this time around.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 SPACE RANGER (ML=5/1), #2 AFTER CHEYENNE (ML=6/1), #4 NEXT COWBOY UP (ML=8/1),

SPACE RANGER - Hard to put any money on this gelding on the front end. Likes to end up on the board though. Just cannot play this vulnerable equine. Didn't show me anything positive last time out or on June 26th. Earned a somewhat easily forgotten speed figure last time out in a $40,000 Maiden Claiming race on August 29th. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that figure. AFTER CHEYENNE - This steed hasn't been near the winner at the wire recently. Should be difficult for this animal to beat this bunch off of that last speed rating. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class figure, so put him on the likely underlays list. NEXT COWBOY UP - Not probable that the speed rating he notched on September 18th will hold up in this contest.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #13 BUDDY'S TIZ to win if you can get at least 7/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

13 with [7,9,10]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

13 with [7,9,10] with [7,9,10] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

13 with [7,9,10] with [7,9,10] with [7,9,10] Total Cost: $6

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Presque Isle Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - Stakes - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $100000 Class Rating: 84

FITZ DIXON, JR. MEMORIAL JUVENILE S. - FOR TWO YEAR OLDS. NO NOMINATION FEE. $200 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX. $250 ADDITIONAL TO START. MONEY TO BE DIVIDED: $60,000 TO THE WINNER; $20,000 TO SECOND; $10,000 TO THIRD; $5,000 TO FOURTH; $2,500 TO FIFTH; $1,500 TO SIXTH; $500 TO SEVENTH AND EIGHTH AND $200 EACH TO NINTH THROUGH TWELFTH. WEIGHT: 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 4 WELLABLED 5/2

# 9 RAPA ITI 20/1

# 2 ARDMORE BAY 9/2

WELLABLED looks very good to best this field. Baird will most likely be able to get this colt to break out early for this race. Overall the Equibase Speed Figures of this equine look very strong in this contest. Must be given a chance given the class of races run lately. ARDMORE BAY - Will make a good outing versus this field of horses. Could go off at a solid price and has some positives going for him.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Thursday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Belmont Park (2nd) Rahy's bandit, 4-1
(3rd) Blenheim Palace, 7-2


Belterra Park (6th) Buck Magic, 7-2
(7th) Ruby Rumba, 5-1


Charles Town (5th) Upperville, 9-2
7th) Bip Bop Boo, 3-1


Finger Lakes (5th) Bo Bob, 6-1
(7th) Mistretta, 5-1


Fresno (5th) Bro's Bro, 7-2
(7th) A Toast to You, 6-1


Meadowlands (3rd) Courageous Colonel, 8-1
(6th) Lovely Elle, 5-1


Penn National (3rd) Decesion Point, 7-2
(6th) Harbor Breeze, 3-1


Presque Isle Downs (2nd) Wind Winter, 6-1
(7th) Indygo Cat, 6-1


Remington Park (4th) Magic Gato, 7-2
(6th) Win in the Willow, 4-1


Santa Anita (5th) Too Fast to Pass, 9-2
(6th) Milton Freewater, 9-2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Belterra Park - Race #2 - Post: 1:59pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,900 Class Rating: 66

Rating:

#7 ART'S SILVER (ML=4/1)
#1 FLYING MONARCH (ML=10/1)


ART'S SILVER - Taking a big class drop in Equibase class figure points from his Aug 17th race at Mountaineer Park. Based on that valuable data, I will give this horse the advantage. It looks like Leon had to learn about this gelding on August 17th when riding him for the first time. Back aboard again today. FLYING MONARCH - Trying to get into the winner's circle for the first time moving from a grass race to the dirt. I think Russell will have him fit and ready for today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 LANGDOM (ML=5/2), #6 WANNA SALSA (ML=7/2), #5 SMOKEN N STYLE (ML=9/2),

LANGDOM - Don't believe this questionable contender has what it takes to win this time around. WANNA SALSA - Doesn't look to be worth 7/2 this time. Pass on him this time. SMOKEN N STYLE - Registered a mediocre speed rating in the last race in a Maiden Special race on September 25th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that rating.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - ART'S SILVER - Some may pass on this one given his lackluster showing at Mountaineer Park in last race. But that was on the mud. Watch out for this horse today.
*
*

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #7 ART'S SILVER on the nose if you can get odds of 3/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #2 - BELMONT PARK - 1:28 PM EASTERN POST

6.0 FURLONGS DIRT FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $14,000.00 CLAIMING $26,000.00 PURSE

#7 MIDNIGHT BOUNTY
#3 RAHY'S BANDIT
#5 JAZZ BAN JOE
#2 SPUN COPPER

#7 MIDNIGHT BOUNTY is the overall speed leader in this claiming field sprinting at 6.0 furlongs on the dirt, takes a class drop (-9), and has produced a quartet of "POWER RUNS" in her last five outings, hitting the board in a pair, including a "POWER RUN WIN" facing substantially better company (+15) in that race than she will facing in this field today. Jockey Manuel Franco and Trainer Steve Klesaris send her to the post ... they've hit the board with 56% of their entries saddled as a team to date. #3 RAHY'S BANDIT, a 4-1 shot, comes off a "POWER RUN WIN" in her last start, and her recent past performance sheets show another "POWER RUN WIN" in her 5th race back.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Blue Jays (89-73) at Rangers (95-67)

Game: 1
Venue: Globe Life Park in Arlington
Date: October 06, 2016 4:38 PM EDT

It's on. Bat flips and fat lips serve as the background of the American League Division Series between the Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays. Game 1 of the best-of-5 is Thursday afternoon at Globe Life Park in Arlington, Texas.

The Rangers and Blue Jays are meeting in the postseason for the second consecutive year. Toronto prevailed in a testy five-game ALDS in 2015 by winning the last three games, including 6-3 in the finale at Rogers Centre punctuated by Jose Bautista's three-run home run off Sam Dyson and subsequent bat flip.

Revenge has to be on the Rangers' minds, even as they rightly insist much more is at stake.

"Playing those guys again and beating them would be sweet," Texas shortstop Elvis Andrus said, according to MLB.com. "But in the end, we're looking at the big picture. It's not about beating one guy in one series. It's about getting to the World Series and winning it all."

One of those guys is Bautista, who's become a wanted man in Texas.

"We just have to keep our emotions in check and just go down there and win some ballgames and play good baseball," Bautista said, via MLB.com. "That's what we're capable of doing, and that's what we tried to do last year. That's what we did this year, except some things transpired that made us get away from that. Hopefully that doesn't happen again."

The roles are somewhat reversed with Texas owning home-field advantage by finishing with the best record in the American League. The Rangers are also well-rested having locked up their playoff position early and spending the last week of the regular season on cruise control.

Toronto didn't clinch a Wild Card spot until the last series and needed 11 innings to beat Baltimore 5-2 Tuesday night. Edwin Encarnacion provided the dramatics this time with a three-run homer to end it before another frenzied Canadian crowd.

There's plenty of bad blood between the clubs. The playoffs last year lit the pot, with tempers boiling over in May in Arlington when Rangers second baseman Rougned Odor decked Bautista with an overhand right to the jaw.

Bautista, hit by a pitch from Matt Bush, tried to break up a double-play with overly-aggressive slide into Odor. When Bautista rose to confront Odor, he was shoved in the chest before a punch sent Bautista's sunglasses flying.

The benches cleared. Odor was suspended for seven games, while Bautista received a one-game ban. A number of players on both sides with also disciplined.

"We just have to win, obviously there's bad blood there," Blue Jays center fielder Kevin Pillar said, via MLB.com. "The last time we were there, it ended the way it ended, but we have to move on from that. We have to take care of business. It's about getting W's."

Rangers manager Jeff Banister agreed.

"I don't get caught up in (revenge)," he said. "I don't get to choose who we play. They have fought hard to get to where they are. They'll be a hot club, and they'll be ready to play."

Cole Hamels (15-5, 3.32 ERA) will get the Game 1 start for the Rangers, with Marco Estrada (9-9, 3.48 ERA) going for the Blue Jays.

Game 2 is Friday afternoon in Arlington before the series heads north of the border. Game 3 is Sunday, with a fourth game Monday if necessary. Game 5 would be Oct. 12 back at Globe Life Park.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game 1 - Red Sox at Indians

American League Divisional Series – Game 1
Boston (93-69, 46-35 Away) at Cleveland (94-67, 53-28 Home)

Game 1 Odds: Red Sox -140, Indians +130, Total 8 ½
Series Odds: Red Sox -170, Indians +150

Exact Series Odds –
Red Sox 4 Games - Win 5/2
Red Sox 5 Games - Win 5/2
Red Sox 3 Games - Win 4/1
Indians 4 Games - Win 5/1
Indians 5 Games - Win 5/1
Indians 3 Games - Win 9/1

2016 Head-to-Head Meetings (Boston 4-2, Under 3-2-1)

Fenway Park (Boston)
May 22 - Indians 2 Red Sox 5 (Under 8.5)
May 21 - Indians 1 Red Sox 9 (Push 10)
May 20 - Indians 4 Red Sox 2 (Under 8.5)

Progressive Field (Cleveland)
Aug. 15 - Red Sox 3 Indians 2 (Under 9) - Makeup Game
Apr. 6 - Red Sox 6 Indians 7 (Over 7.5)
Apr. 5 - Red Sox 6 Indians 2 (Over 6)

Starting Pitchers

Boston - Rick Porcello (22-4, 3.15 ERA)
Overall Team Record: 25-8
Overall (O/U) Record: 18-14-1
Road Record: 9-3 (3.31 ERA)
Road Team Record: 10-7
Road O/U Record: 11-6

Record vs. Cleveland: Porcello has gone 10-4 in 22 career starts versus the Indians, which includes a 5-2 win on May 22 this season. Over the last four seasons, Porcello is 5-1 versus Cleveland in seven appearances and has only surrendered one home run over this span.

Cleveland – Trevor Bauer (12-8, 4.26 ERA)
Overall Team Record: 16-12
Overall (O/U) Record: 10-14-4
Home Record: 6-4 (4.72 ERA)
Home Team Record: 11-5
Home O/U Record: 8-7-1

Record vs. Boston: Bauer has faced Boston twice in his career as a starter and he’s been lit up for 16 hits and 11 earned runs in 7 and 2/3 innings. The Red Sox won both games 9-1, which took place at Fenway Park.

Divisional Records
Boston: 15-18 versus AL Central (9-7 on road)
Cleveland: 14-18 versus AL East (8-8 at home)

Umpire – Brian Knight

-- The home team has gone 20-10 in Knight’s 30 appearances behind home plate
-- The ‘over’ has gone 19-10-1 with Knight behind home plate

Skinny –

Playoff baseball returns to Cleveland as the American League Central-champion Indians host the AL East-champion Red Sox in Game 1 of the ALDS.

The Indians (94-67) and the Red Sox (93-69) are both back in the postseason for the first time since 2013. The Tribe lost the Wild Card Game to the Rays that season, while the Red Sox won their third World Series in nine years.

RHP Rick Porcello (22-4, 3.15 ERA, 1.01 WHIP), who led the AL in wins and has an excellent chance of taking home the Cy Young Award, will start for Boston. He’ll be opposed by RHP Trevor Bauer (12-8, 4.26 ERA, 1.31 WHIP).

The Red Sox (878) and the Indians (777) were first and second in the AL in runs, respectively, during the regular season. Boston took the season series 4-2 and went 2-1 against Terry Francona’s club at Progressive Field.

The Red Sox played great on the road this season, going 46-35, but the Indians were incredibly difficult to beat at home. Cleveland went 53-28 at their park.

Bauer will have his work cut out for him against an offense that was absolutely brilliant in 2016. RF Mookie Betts (.318, 31 HR, 113 RBI) and 2B Dustin Pedroia (.318, 15 HR, 74 RBI) tied for second in the league in hitting, and DH David Ortiz (.315, 38 HR, 127 RBI), Betts and 1B Hanley Ramirez (.286, 30 HR, 111 RBI, .361 OBP) finished first, fourth and fifth in RBIs, respectively.

Ortiz is one of the most clutch postseason players in baseball history. In 82 postseason games, he’s hit .295 with 17 homers, 21 doubles, 60 RBIs and a .409 on-base percentage. In his final October before retirement, you can expect him to be as determined and locked in as ever.

No one on Boston’s roster has more than six career at-bats against Bauer, but Betts (3-for-5 with 1 HR, 2 2B, 4 RBI) and Ortiz (4-for-5 with 1 HR, 2 2B, 3 RBI) have owned him in limited plate appearances.

In two career starts against the Red Sox, Bauer is 0-2 with an astronomical 12.14 ERA. He faced them once this season, in May, and surrendered four earned runs in five innings.

3B Jose Ramirez (.312, 11 HR, 76 RBI, 22 SB) and SS Francisco Lindor (.301, 15 HR, 78 RBI, 19 SB) had very solid seasons, and DH Carlos Santana (.259, 34 HR, 87 RBI) and 1B Mike Napoli (.239, 34 HR, 101 RBI) supplied the power.

The Indians have seen a ton of Porcello, who pitched in the AL Central with the Indians from 2009-2014. 2B Jason Kipnis (.275, 23 HR, 82 RBI) has hit him well, going 10-for-31 with a homer and eight RBIs, and Santana (12-for-41 with 3 HR, 2 2B, 4 RBI) and Napoli (6-for-18 with 2 2B, 1 3B) have also seen the ball well against him.

Porcello faced the Indians once this season, back in May, and surrendered two runs in 5 2/3 innings to earn the win. In 22 career starts against Cleveland, Porcello is 10-4 with a 3.35 ERA.

 

[PayItForwardCapper]

Week 5 NFL / Here are teams with Public % you DO NOT WANT TO BE ON - Patriots (82%) Vikings ( 82 %) Steelers ( 82%) Eagles ( 82%) .

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'ALDS'

Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays square off in Arlington Thursday afternoon in a rematch of last fall's feisty ALDS series in which Blue Jays took down the Rangers in five games. Sportsbooks have opened Rangers -$1.40 home favorite with the total set at 9.0 runs.

Rangers, major leagues most profitable team stuffing +$2932 into betting accounts behind a 95-67 record enjoyed home cooking this year, compiling a 53-28 (+$1873) record plating 5.3 runs/game with the pitching staff allowing 4.8 per/contest before the home audience. Southpaw Cole Hamels (15-5, 3.32 ERA) will toe the rubber in the opener carrying a 5-2 home record with Rangers 12-3 in his fifteen Globe Life Park starts. Hamels' teams have not had much success vs Blue Jays. Although Rangers split a pair in last seasons ALDS with the hurler, in six career starts vs Toronto his teams (Tex/Phi) are 1-5.

Blue Jays 90-73 (-$819) on the campaign after Tuesday night's thrilling 11 inning wild-card victory over Orioles bring a 43-38 (-$250) record in an opposing park crossing 4.4 runs/game with the pitching staff surrendering 3.7 per/contest. Marco Estrada (9-9, 3.48 ERA) gets starting duties in game-one for Gibbons' troops. The Jays hitting a rough patch with their righty won just two of his six September starts. It may be some comfort to know Jays are on a 4-1, 8-3 stretch in enemy territory with Estrada, 4-2 in his last six opening a road series. Jays split a pair vs Rangers in 2016 with the hurler and are 2-2 in his four starts vs Texas wearing a Blue Jay uniform including a win in last years ALDS right here in Texas.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Red Sox (93-69) at Indians (94-67)

Game: 1
Venue: Progressive Field
Date: October 06, 2016 8:08 PM EDT

CLEVELAND -- The Boston Red Sox and Cleveland Indians have come full circle.

On April 5, they played at Progressive Field on Opening Day and six months later, with both teams having won their respective divisions, they will meet in Game 1 in the American League Division Series.

The Indians, with a record of 94-67, won the Central Division by eight games over second-place Detroit. The Red Sox, with a record of 93-69, won the East by four games over second-place Baltimore and Toronto.

Thursday night in Cleveland both teams are 0-0, but there is no shortage of subplots. The biggest one is that Indians manager Terry Francona is the former Boston manager and won two World Series with the Red Sox.

Boston manager John Farrell was the pitching coach for Francona in Boston but is also a former Indians pitcher and farm director. Neither manager, however, wants to make this series about them.

Asked his feelings on facing his former team in the postseason, Francona said, "I would be excited to play anyone, anywhere. This is the playoffs. The way we've played this year, we're a worthy opponent."

Francona, however, says the focus should not be on the managers.

"Both teams accomplished so much to get here, it should be about the players, not about my private feelings, which will remain that," he said.

Farrell agrees.

"Any time your team advances to this point in the season it's a special event," Farrell said. "But how we advance or how we play in this series is going to be dependent upon our players. It's always about the players who take the field and how they go out and execute."

Rick Porcello (22-4, 3.15), who will start Game 1 for the Red Sox, has plenty of experience facing the Indians. Porcello spent the first six years of his career pitching for the Tigers, who play the division-rival Indians numerous times each season.

In 22 career starts vs. the Indians Porcello is 10-4 with a 3.35 ERA. In one start against the Indians this year he was 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA.

"Cleveland is a good ballclub," Porcello said. "They're very well balanced. They have some guys that can run, definitely have some power threats, and some really good left-handed hitting, especially at the top of the order."

Cleveland frequently starts a lineup in which the first eight hitters are either left-handed hitters or switch-hitters.

"You've got to be on your game. You've got to execute your pitches," said Porcello.

"I think the bottom line is how our right-handed pitchers attack a lineup that can feature a number of left-handed hitters in it," Farrell said.

Francona is very impressed by Porcello's season.

"His command is off the charts," Francona said. "He's throwing not only strikes, but he's using all four quadrants of the plate, and he's not walking anybody."

Boston won four of the six regular-season games played between the two teams, but the Indians winning the home field advantage for the Division Series was huge. Cleveland was 53-28 at home this year, tying Texas for the best home record in the American League.

"They play exceptionally well at home," Farrell said.

That home success does not extend to Cleveland's Game 1 starter, Trevor Bauer (12-8, 4.26).

Bauer was 4-6 at Progressive Field, and his ERA is over a run higher at home (4.73) than on the road (3.67). In two appearances, one start, versus Boston this year, Bauer was 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA. In three career games, two starts, against the Red Sox he is 0-2 with a 12.91 ERA.

"They have a really good team overall," Bauer said. "Obviously, they scored the most runs, have the best offense and have set all sorts of offensive records this year. Going against that lineup, it's going to be a lot of fun."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

AL Divisional Series - Thursday

Blue Jays @ Rangers
Hamels is 1-0, 4.50 in his last four starts; over is 6-1-1 in his last eight starts. Texas is 12-3 in his home starts. Hamels didn’t face Toronto this season.

Blue Jays ousted Texas 3-2 from playoffs LY, after Rangers won first two series games. Road team won four of those five games. Jays are 4-3 against Texas this year- they won Wild Card game on 11th-inning walkout HR Tuesday night. Toronto won its last three games, is 9-5 in its last 14. Rangers went 7-5 in last 12 games, coasting to AL West title.

Jays are in playoffs for second year in row, only times they’ve made it since 1993. Texas is in for fifth time in last seven years- they’ve never won a World Series.

Red Sox vs Indians
Porcello is 5-1, 2.86 in his last seven starts; three of his last four stayed under. Boston is 9-7 in his road starts starts. Porcello allowed two runs in 5.2 IP (115 PT) in 5-2 win over Cleveland May 22 at Fenway. Bauer is 1-2, 6.93 in his last four starts; over is 5-0-1 in his last six starts. indians won six of his last seven home starts. Bauer allowed four runs in five IP (98 PT) in 9-1 loss at Fenway May 21.

Red Sox are in playoffs for just second time in last seven years; they’re 4-2 vs Cleveland this year; they lost five of last six games overall, which followed their 11-game win streak. Indians are in playoffs for just third time since 2001; they’re 8-4 in last 12 games overall.

Obvious subplot here is that Francona is manager who ended Boston’s decades-long championship drought when he won 2004 World Series, then won again with Sox in ‘07.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

AL Division Series Game 1 MLB Betting Matchups & Odds with Expert Picks
by Alan Matthews

The AL West champion Texas Rangers will have home-field advantage throughout the 2016 MLB playoffs as the Rangers had the American League's best record at 95-67. Because the AL won the All-Star Game, the Rangers know they won't have to play a Game 7 anywhere but Arlington. Texas should have won its first World Series title in 2011 but blew Games 6 and 7 in St. Louis and hasn't been back since. The Rangers are +215 favorites on 5Dimes to win the pennant. The AL Central-winning Cleveland Indians finished with the same amount of losses as Texas but lost a head-to-head tiebreaker and are the second seed. But the Tribe are +355 long shots to win the pennant, with AL East king Boston at +220. Wild-card winner Toronto is +350. Here's a look at the two opening games in the ALDS on Thursday. All ALDS games are on TBS.


Blue Jays at Rangers (TBA)

First pitch at 4:30 p.m. ET. It's a rematch of last year's ALDS, which Toronto won in five games despite dropping the first two at home. I'm sure you remember the epic seventh inning of Game 5 in Canada. The top of the inning defied all explanation. In the bottom, Jose Bautista hit the go-ahead three-run homer and had the greatest bat flip in MLB playoff history. It's legend north of the border. The Jays won four of seven meetings vs. Texas this season, all played in May. In the final game, May 15, and presumably Bautista's final at-bat vs. the Rangers this year in the eighth inning in Arlington, he was hit in the back on the first pitch he saw. Clear payback for the bat flip. That obviously put Bautista on first base, and shortly after he slid hard into Rangers second baseman Rougned Odor trying to break up a double play. Things got heated quickly and Odor landed a huge punch to Bautista's jaw. A bench-clearing melee ensued. The Jays of course responded in the bottom of the eighth by hitting a Texas batter. I doubt you see anything in this series as it's too important and you don't want suspensions into the next round.

Texas will be favored Thursday, and the total should be 8.5-9. It's TBA as of this writing because Toronto, which beat Baltimore 5-2 on an Edwin Encarnacion walk-off three-run homer in the bottom of the 11th inning in Tuesday's wild-card game, hasn't announced its starting pitcher. It should be lefty J.A. Happ (20-4, 3.18), who will get some Cy Young votes as he was second in the AL in wins and sixth in ERA. His final regular-season start was Saturday in Boston and Happ allowed two runs and four hits over 6.1 innings in a no-decision. He hasn't allowed more than three earned in seven straight outings. Happ faced Texas once this year, May 5 in Toronto, and allowed one run and six hits over seven innings in a victory. Carlos Beltran is 10-for-32 career off him with three homers and six RBIs. Jonathan Lucroy is 7-for-19 with four doubles and five RBIs. Elvis Andrus is 0-for-10.

Texas will go with lefty Cole Hamels (15-5, 3.32). He will be very well-rested, last pitching Sept. 28 vs. Milwaukee and taking a no-decision with a line of five runs allowed (three earned), eight hits and six strikeouts over seven innings. Hamels was 1-1 with a 5.86 ERA in September as he might have worn down. He didn't face Toronto this year but faced the Jays twice in last year's ALDS and was 0-1 with a 2.70 ERA. Encarnacion is 5-for-14 off him career in the regular season with a homer. Bautista is 3-for-9 with a double. Troy Tulowitzki is 5-for-15 with two homers.

Key trends: The Jays are 4-1 in their past five vs. a lefty. Texas is 13-3 in its past 16 in Game 1 of a series. The Rangers are 18-3 in Hamels' past 21 at home. The "over/under" has gone under in Toronto's past nine after scoring at least five runs in its previous game. The under is 5-2 in Texas' past seven in Game 1 of a series.

Early lean: Blue Jays (if it's indeed Happ) and under.


Red Sox at Indians (+129, 8.5)

Start time for 8 p.m. ET. The big story line in this series is Indians manager Terry Francona going against the franchise he led to World Series titles in 2004 & '07. He left after the 2011 season and spent a year in TV before being hired by the Indians. Current Boston manager John Farrell was Francona's pitching coach from 2007-10. This is the best possible matchup for Boston, my pick to win the AL pennant, considering the Indians' three best pitchers are hurting. Nos. 2 and 3 Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar are out. Ace Corey Kluber would usually start the opener but is going Friday because he's recovering from a quad injury. So it's Trevor Bauer for the Tribe. Bauer (12-8, 4.26) closed the regular season with a no-decision on Saturday in Kansas City, allowing three runs and six hits while striking out nine in six innings. Bauer started in Boston on May 21 and lost, giving up four runs and eight hits over five innings without a single K. He also pitched an inning of relief at home vs. the Sox on Opening Day and was tagged for two runs. David Ortiz is 4-for-5 off him with two doubles, a homer and three RBIs. Mookie Betts is 3-for-5 with two doubles, a homer and four RBIs. Hanley Ramirez is 2-for-5 with two RBIs.

I was moderately surprised that Farrell named likely AL Cy Young winner Rick Porcello to start the opener over David Price even though Porcello has had a tremendous season. Porcello (22-4, 3.15) led the majors in wins and with a 5.91 strikeout-to-walk ratio while finishing second in the AL in WHIP (1.01) and fifth in ERA. He closed the regular season on Friday in a no-decision vs. the Rays (6 IP, 8 H, 3 ER). Porcello got one start vs. Cleveland this year, winning May 22 at Fenway. He allowed two runs and five hits over 5.2 innings well before he was thought of as a Cy Young candidate. Jason Kipnis is 10-for-31 career off him with a homer and eight RBIs. Carlos Santana hits .293 with three homers and 10 strikeouts in 41 at-bats. Mike Napoli is 6-for-18 with two doubles and eight strikeouts. Francisco Lindor is 1-for-7.

Key trends: The Red Sox are 4-0 in Porcello's past four on the road. The Indians are 6-1 in Bauer's past seven at home. The over is 10-4 in Porcello's past 14 on the road. The over is 6-1 in Bauer's past seven at home vs. teams with a winning record.

Early lean: Red Sox and over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

AL Divisional Series - Thursday

Blue Jays @ Rangers
Hamels is 1-0, 4.50 in his last four starts; over is 6-1-1 in his last eight starts. Texas is 12-3 in his home starts. Hamels didn’t face Toronto this season.

Blue Jays ousted Texas 3-2 from playoffs LY, after Rangers won first two series games. Road team won four of those five games. Jays are 4-3 against Texas this year- they won Wild Card game on 11th-inning walkout HR Tuesday night. Toronto won its last three games, is 9-5 in its last 14. Rangers went 7-5 in last 12 games, coasting to AL West title.

Jays are in playoffs for second year in row, only times they’ve made it since 1993. Texas is in for fifth time in last seven years- they’ve never won a World Series.

Red Sox vs Indians
Porcello is 5-1, 2.86 in his last seven starts; three of his last four stayed under. Boston is 9-7 in his road starts starts. Porcello allowed two runs in 5.2 IP (115 PT) in 5-2 win over Cleveland May 22 at Fenway. Bauer is 1-2, 6.93 in his last four starts; over is 5-0-1 in his last six starts. indians won six of his last seven home starts. Bauer allowed four runs in five IP (98 PT) in 9-1 loss at Fenway May 21.

Red Sox are in playoffs for just second time in last seven years; they’re 4-2 vs Cleveland this year; they lost five of last six games overall, which followed their 11-game win streak. Indians are in playoffs for just third time since 2001; they’re 8-4 in last 12 games overall.

Obvious subplot here is that Francona is manager who ended Boston’s decades-long championship drought when he won 2004 World Series, then won again with Sox in ‘07.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB*|*BOSTON*at*CLEVELAND
Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CLEVELAND) with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start, stranding 6.9 or less runners on base per game on the season
401-343*since 1997.**(*53.9%*|*122.6 units*)
53-63*this year.**(*45.7%*|*-1.5 units*)


StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB*|*TORONTO*at*TEXAS
TEXAS is 27-9 (+17.3 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games*this season.
The average score was: TEXAS (5.4) , OPPONENT (4.0)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday’s six-pack

Six more NFL trends to ponder, with Week 5 coming up……..

— Baltimore is 2-12-2 in last 16 games as a favorite.

— Bengals are 30-18-5 in last 43 games against NFC teams.

— Dolphins are 2-9 vs spread in their last 11 games.

— Carolina is 11-3 in last 14 games as a divisional home favorite.

— Steelers covered seven of their last nine games.

— Falcons covered eight of last nine as an underdog.