Thursday 10/30/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Line on the move as Cardinals host Seminoles
Andrew Avery

Oddsmakers opened the Florida State Seminoles as 5-point road faves at the Louisville Cardinals for their clash Thursday night earlier this week. That line, however, is on the move and has come down to either 4 or 3.5 heading into game day.

The Noles have been one of the worst programs at the betting window this season and bring a 1-6 record against the spread into the meeting.

Louisville has four of five straight up and owns a 5-3 ATS record on the season.

This marks the first meeting between the programs since 2002 and dating back to 1987, the Cardinals have covered the previous four meetings.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

TROY (1 - 7) at GA SOUTHERN (6 - 2) - 10/30/2014, 7:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
GA SOUTHERN is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games this season.
GA SOUTHERN is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
GA SOUTHERN is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


FLORIDA ST (7 - 0) at LOUISVILLE (6 - 2) - 10/30/2014, 7:30 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Trends

TROY vs. GA SOUTHERN
Troy is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 19 of Troy's last 25 games
Ga Southern is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Ga Southern is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

FLORIDA STATE vs. LOUISVILLE
Florida State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Florida State is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Louisville's last 7 games at home
Louisville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Football Trends

College Football Betting Trends - Thursday, Oct. 30

Troy at Georgia Southern, 7:30 ET
Troy: 22-9 ATS after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers
Georgia S: 7-1 ATS in all lined games

Florida State at Louisville, 7:30 ET
Florida St: 36-20 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Louisville: 7-20 ATS in home games after playing 3 straight conference games



College Football Betting Trends - Friday, Oct. 31

Tulsa at Memphis, 8:00 ET
Tulsa: 38-60 ATS after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored
Memphis: 4-16 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game

Cincinnati at Tulane, 8:00 ET
Cincinnati: 14-4 ATS in road games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games
Tulane: 81-109 ATS as an underdog



College Football Betting Trends - Saturday, Nov. 1

Notre Dame at Navy, 8:00 ET
Notre Dame: 5-19 ATS after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games
Navy: 86-53 ATS as an underdog

Boston College at Virginia Tech, 12:30 ET
Boston College: 34-17 ATS after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers
Virginia Tech: 6-16 ATS as a favorite

East Carolina at Temple, 12:00 ET
E Carolina: 0-7 ATS in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers
Temple: 6-1 OVER after scoring 14 points or less last game

Central Florida at Connecticut, 12:00 ET
C Florida: 1-8 ATS off a home win against a conference rival
Connecticut: 24-10 ATS in home games after playing a conference game

Wisconsin at Rutgers, 12:00 ET
Wisconsin: 25-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games
Rutgers: 12-2 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs

North Carolina State at Syracuse, 3:00 ET
N Carolina St: 24-9 ATS off 2 or more consecutive unders
Syracuse: 6-0 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival

Duke at Pittsburgh, 12:00 ET
Duke: 8-1 ATS after having won 2 out of their last 3 games
Pittsburgh: 27-46 ATS after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers

Maryland at Penn State, 12:00 ET
Maryland: 7-0 ATS in road games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game
Penn State: 1-8 ATS after playing a game at home

North Carolina at Miami Florida, 12:30 ET
N Carolina: 6-0 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games
Miami FL: 18-37 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games

Georgia State at Applachian St, 3:30 ET
Georgia St: 8-1 ATS off a home loss
Applachian St: 3-6 ATS in all lined games

Air Force at Army, 11:30 AM ET
Air Force: 2-11 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games
Army: 9-19 ATS after playing a non-conference game

Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan, 1:00 ET
C Michigan: 11-3 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games
E Michigan: 0-7 ATS after playing a game at home

Northwestern at Iowa, 12:00 ET
Northwestern: 28-13 ATS in road games after allowing 37 points or more last game
Iowa: 13-1 ATS in home games off 2 or more consecutive overs

Texas at Texas Tech, 7:30 ET
Texas: 1-5 ATS after scoring 6 points or less last game
Texas Tech: 3-12 ATS after playing 3 straight conference games

Purdue at Nebraska, 3:30 ET
Purdue: 10-24 ATS after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored
Nebraska: 9-2 ATS after playing a game at home

Kansas at Baylor, 4:00 ET
Kansas: 36-55 ATS in road games against conference opponents
Baylor: 22-10 ATS in all lined games

Western Michigan at Miami Ohio, 2:30 ET
W Michigan: 6-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Miami OH: 5-1 ATS as an underdog

Auburn at Mississippi, 7:00 ET
Auburn: 10-2 ATS after playing a conference game
Mississippi: 7-1 ATS in all lined games

Kentucky at Missouri, 4:00 ET
Kentucky: 6-16 ATS as an underdog
Missouri: 6-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread

Arkansas at Mississippi St, 7:15 ET
Arkansas: 36-17 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game
Mississippi St: 6-0 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech, 3:00 ET
W Kentucky: 14-4 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Louisiana Tech: 16-31 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival

UL - Monroe at Texas AM, 12:00 ET
UL - Monroe: 22-10 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses
Texas AM: 2-9 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread

BYU at Mid Tennessee State, 3:30 ET
BYU: 0-6 ATS after playing 2 straight non-conference games
Mid Tenn St: 6-0 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games

Tennessee at South Carolina, 7:30 ET
Tennessee: 26-13 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses
South Carolina: 1-5 ATS off a loss against a conference rival

Florida at Georgia, 3:30 ET
Florida: 34-17 ATS after a 2 game home stand
Georgia: 11-25 ATS off a double digit road win

USC at Washington State, 4:30 ET
USC: 12-3 ATS in road games off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival
Washington St: 21-37 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread

Stanford at Oregon, 7:30 ET
Stanford: 62-41 ATS after playing 3 straight conference games
Oregon: 65-42 ATS after a win by 17 or more points

Oklahoma at Iowa State, 12:00 ET
Oklahoma: 2-9 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points
Iowa St: 4-13 ATS after a playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored

Oklahoma State at Kansas State, 8:00 ET
Oklahoma St: 1-5 ATS off 3 or more consecutive unders
Kansas St: 16-5 ATS against conference opponents

Indiana at Michigan, 3:30 ET
Indiana: 25-42 ATS in road games after playing 2 straight conference games
Michigan: 3-12 ATS after a loss by 17 or more points

Virginia at Georgia Tech, 3:30 ET
Virginia: 7-17 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
Georgia Tech: 8-22 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs

Arkansas St at Idaho, 5:00 ET
Arkansas St: 13-4 ATS after playing a conference game
Idaho: 1-5 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games

S Alabama at LA Lafayette, 5:00 ET
S Alabama: 2-9 ATS after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers
LA Lafayette: 10-23 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread

Old Dominion at Vanderbilt, 7:00 ET
Old Dominion: 0-6 ATS after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game
Vanderbilt: 16-30 ATS in home games off a road loss against a conference rival

Rice at FLA International, 12:00 ET
Rice: 44-23 ATS after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game
FLA International: 4-14 ATS after a bye week

Washington at Colorado, 1:00 ET
Washington: 73-103 ATS after playing a conference game
Colorado: 47-29 ATS in November games

California at Oregon St, 10:30 ET
California: 29-15 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points
Oregon St: 30-12 ATS off 2 straight losses against conference rivals

Arizona at UCLA, 7:00 ET
Arizona: 20-8 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games
UCLA: 5-15 ATS after a 2 game road trip

Colorado St at San Jose St, 7:00 ET
Colorado St: 12-4 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
San Jose St: 0-6 ATS after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game

Utah at Arizona St, 11:00 ET
Utah: 32-17 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points
Arizona St: 43-25 ATS in home games after playing their last game on the road

TCU at W Virginia, 3:30 ET
TCU: 6-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread
W Virginia: 5-15 ATS in home games after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games

Houston at S Florida, 4:00 ET
Houston: 7-0 ATS in road lined games
S Florida: 5-19 ATS in home games after playing 2 straight conference games

UAB at FLA Atlantic, 7:00 ET
UAB: 12-4 ATS off 2 consecutive road losses
FLA Atlantic: 13-4 ATS after playing a conference game

Southern Miss at UTEP, 8:00 ET
Southern Miss: 10-22 ATS in all lined games
UTEP: 49-71 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games

New Mexico at UNLV, 5:30 ET
New Mexico: 7-1 OVER after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more
UNLV: 5-15 ATS in home games off a cover where the team lost as an underdog

Texas St at New Mexico St, 4:00 ET
Texas St: 6-1 ATS off 2 or more consecutive unders
New Mexico St: 2-14 ATS after 5 consecutive games where they committed 2 or more turnovers

Illinois at Ohio St, 8:00 ET
Illinois: 2-10 ATS in road lined games
Ohio St: 134-97 ATS as a favorite

Wyoming at Fresno St, 10:00 ET
Wyoming: 15-3 ATS in road games after a game where they committed no turnovers
Fresno St: 22-38 ATS in home games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers

San Diego St at Nevada, 10:30 ET
San Diego St: 5-1 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game
Nevada: 1-5 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins

Utah St at Hawaii, 11:00 ET
Utah St: 16-6 ATS as a favorite
Hawaii: as a home underdog of 7 points or less

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Inside the Stats - Week 9
By Marc Lawrence

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

The first poll from the playoff committee was released Tuesday evening and with it the controversy starts.

While the debate continues we’ll continue to pour through the stats as we review teams’ season-to-date performances from a statistical perspective while also analyzing last week’s football games.

Keep in mind it’s important to remember that all results are ATS (Against The Spread) in games played this season through Monday, Oct. 27, unless noted otherwise.

PUTTIN’ ON THE STATS

With Halloween now in the rear view mirror, it’s on to the best time of the College Football season – the month of November!

That’s because the combination of stats and angles combine to bring us the best winning edges of the year. Our ‘Puttin’ On The Stats’ theory is a dandy, and best of all it’s simple and it wins.

What we are looking to do from this point of the season out is to ‘Play On’ any team as a dog if they’ve won all – or all but one – of their games in total yards ITS (In The Stats) season-to-date. Conversely, we will look to ‘Play Against’ any favorite that has lost all – or all but one – of their games in total yards ITS.

As we head toward Thanksgiving, here’s this year’s list from our ‘Play On’ (as dog) and ‘Play Against’ (as favorite) teams to fatten up on for the balance of the 2014 season:

Play On Dogs: Alabama, Arizona, Auburn, Baylor, Boise State, *East Carolina, Georgia Tech, Louisville, *Marshall, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Nebraska, Notre Dame, *Ohio State, TCU, Virginia, Western Michigan and Wisconsin.

Play Against Favorites: Connecticut, *Eastern Michigan, Florida International, Kent State, North Carolina, *SMU, Texas State, Troy, UNLV, *Vanderbilt and Wake Forest.

Important: an *asterisk indicates the team is either 100% or 0% ITS this season. Once a favorite loses the stats a second time, or a dog wins the stats for the second time during the season, they are immediately eliminated from the list.

To kick off the festivities this week we find Arizona, Auburn, Louisville (Thursday) and Virginia on the ‘Play On’ dog list; Texas State, UNLV and Vanderbilt on the ‘Play Against’ favorite list.

There you have it. Now pass the gravy and let the November feast begin

OIL HAZARDS

Each week on the football card each we isolate favorites that have been out-gained in each of their last three games.

We call them ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory. Here are this week’s potential Pennzoil favorites.

NCAAFB: Penn State, Texas State, UNLV and Vanderbilt.

NFL: There are no plays in the NFL this week.

LOOKING INSIDE THE STATS

Once again there were a handful of teams who won phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game. Those teams playing this week include:

NCAAFB: Duke and Illinois

NFL: Arizona Cardinals

On the flip side, these are the teams playing this week who lost phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but out-gained their opponent by 100 or more yards in their last game:

NCAAFB: Florida and Oklahoma

NFL: Philadelphia Eagles

HOT TRENDS

From my weekly NFL column in the USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY, here are some of the hottest trends surrounding this week’s card from my all-knowing database:

The Arizona Cardinals are 11-1 ATS versus the NFC East.

The Cincinnati Bengals are 1-9-2 ATS versus losing opponents seeking triple revenge exact.

The Indianapolis Colts are 8-1-1 ATS versus opponents seeking double revenge-exact.

The Miami Dolphins are 2-14 ATS as home favorites between away games.

The Kansas City Chiefs are 0-9 ATS as home favorites off a home game.

The New Orleans Saints are 7-0 ATS in games after facing the Green Bay Packers, but 0-6-2 ATS on Thursdays.

STAT OF THE WEEK

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is 7-1 ATS as a home underdog in his NFL career. The only loss was to Peyton Manning in 2005.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFC South highlights TNF

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (3-4) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (3-4-1)
Line & Total: New Orleans -2.5, Total: 48

Both the Saints and Panthers look to get back to the .500 mark when the two square off in Charlotte on Thursday night.

New Orleans hosted Green Bay Sunday night and came away with a huge 44-23 victory behind 311 yards and three touchdowns from QB Drew Brees. Carolina QB Cam Newton was wildly inefficient in Week 8, finishing with 171 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. He was unable to produce a touchdown scoring drive for his team, losing 13-9 at home against the Seahawks.

The Panthers are 3-1 (SU and ATS) over the past two seasons in this series, including 2-0 (SU and ATS) when hosting the Saints during that time. Since 1992, New Orleans is 10-3 ATS when facing a defense that is allowing more than 375 yards per game during the second half of the season. The Panthers, however, are 8-2 ATS versus teams that allow 24 or more points per game on the year over the past three seasons. They are also 9-3 ATS when facing a team with a losing record in that span.

RB Pierre Thomas (ribs) is out for New Orleans while teammate RB Khiry Robinson (arm) is questionable. Carolina's main injury concerns are on the defensive side of the ball with S Thomas DeCoud (hamstring), LB Chase Blackburn (knee) and CB Bene Benwikere (ankle) all questionable for Thursday night.

The Saints picked up a victory in a must-win home meeting with the Packers last week, and a lot of that had to do with the play of QB Drew Brees (2,227 pass yards, 14 TD, 7 INT). Brees was 27-of-32 in the game with a passer rating of 138.4. He was not going to let the Saints miss the playoffs that easily. Another player who really stepped up in that win was RB Mark Ingram (331 rush yards, 4 TD), who rushed 24 times for 172 yards and a touchdown versus Green Bay. He’ll now face a Carolina defense that is allowing 135.3 rushing yards per game (28th in NFL). He should be in for yet another big game as long as he continues put his head down and run with power.

TE Jimmy Graham (39 rec, 435 yards, 4 TD) caught five passes for 59 yards and a touchdown in the win. He looked a lot better than he did in the loss to Detroit, where he was severely limited with a shoulder injury. WR Brandin Cooks (40 rec, 372 yards, 2 TD) caught six passes for 94 yards and a touchdown. The rookie is inconsistent, but really adds another element to this team’s offense when he is on his game.

This defense has been good against the run this year, allowing just 101.1 YPG (10th in NFL). That could, however, just be because of their struggles against the pass. New Orleans is surrendering 289.3 yards per game through the air (31st in NFL) and will need to tighten up its coverage against Cam Newton and the Panthers.

Carolina looked horrible at home against the Seahawks last week and a lot of that blame will fall on the shoulders of QB Cam Newton (1,643 pass yards, 8 TD, 4 INT). The franchise quarterback was just 12-of-22 in that game with a passer rating of 61.0. He will have a golden opportunity to turn things around this week against a miserable New Orleans passing defense.

The only players who showed up in the loss to Seattle were RB Jonathan Stewart (217 rush yards, 1 TD) and WR Kelvin Benjamin (38 rec, 571 yards, 5 TD). Stewart rushed 16 times for 79 yards, and also caught three passes for 15 yards, while Benjamin hauled in four of his seven targets for a total of 94 yards. They should both have a lot more room to run when facing the Saints compared to the Seahawks.

The Panthers’ defense, however, showed up against Seattle in that game. They held the Seahawks to just 310 total yards and were able to cause two turnovers. This unit has allowed 243.3 passing yards per game (18th in NFL) and 135.3 rushing yards per game (28th in NFL). They’ll be hoping that their performance against Seattle was more of a sign of things to come.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saints at Panthers
By Kevin Rogers

Only one division in the NFL has zero teams at or above the .500 mark. The two top teams in the NFC South hook up in Carolina on Thursday night in what looks to be a pivotal matchup for supremacy in this division as the season hurdles the midway point. New Orleans has started slow at 3-4, but is picking some momentum, while Carolina’s 2-0 start seems like a distant memory as the Panthers have stumbled to a 3-4-1 record through eight games.

Things seemed bright for the defending NFC South champion Panthers after early season victories over the Buccaneers and Lions. However, Carolina stubbed its toe against the AFC North, posting an 0-2-1 record, while needing a two-touchdown rally to stun the Bears at home in Week 5. The Panthers had an excellent opportunity to bust the .500 plateau with a win over the Seahawks at home last week, but Carolina lost, 13-9 as Russell Wilson burned the Panthers for a late touchdown pass for the second straight season.

Carolina covered as six-point home underdogs, but Ron Rivera’s team gained just 268 yards, while the Panthers have been outgained in the yardage category in seven consecutive games. Cam Newton has thrown an interception in four straight contests, while not busting the 300-yard mark in seven starts, as the former Heisman Trophy winner has rushed for just one touchdown this season.

The Saints slipped up in their first two games at Atlanta and Cleveland, losing those two contests by a combined five points. New Orleans has taken care of business at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome by going 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, capped off with last Sunday’s 44-23 rout of the Packers as two-point favorites. Drew Brees put together a nearly impeccable performance for the Saints, completing 27-of-32 passes for 311 yards and three touchdowns (all in the second half), while Mark Ingram ran all over the Green Bay defense for 172 yards and a touchdown.

Since the start of the 2013 season, Sean Payton’s club owns a dreadful 2-5 SU and 0-7 ATS record in the role of a road favorite, which includes an 0-3 SU/ATS mark this season. This is a crucial stretch for the Saints, who play the next three games at home against the 49ers, Bengals, and Ravens, followed by a trip to Pittsburgh. With Tampa Bay and Atlanta pretty much cooked in the division race, New Orleans will likely continue to win at home, but need road wins since Carolina has a slight advantage by having a tie in the standings.

The Panthers haven’t been great in the underdog role since the beginning of 2012, covering just eight of 21 times, although they are 3-2 ATS this season when receiving points. Carolina has already lost more games this season at Bank of America Stadium (2) than it did last season (1), but Rivera’s squad has won six of the past seven home games against division opponents.

The home team won each of the two meetings last season as these clubs didn’t meet until December. The Saints dominated the Panthers at the Superdome, 31-13 as three-point favorites, as Brees torched the Carolina defense for four touchdown passes. Carolina avenged that defeat two weeks later in Charlotte by holding off New Orleans, 17-13 to barely cover as three-point chalk. The Panthers racked up only 222 yards of offense, but Newton found Domenik Hixon for the game-winning touchdown with 23 second remaining to clinch a playoff berth.

Both the Saints and Panthers have profited for ‘over’ bettors this season, as New Orleans has put together a 6-1 mark to the ‘over.’ The lone ‘under’ for the Saints came in a 20-9 victory in Week 3 against Minnesota with a 49 ½ total, but all four road games have sailed ‘over’ the total. The Panthers own a 5-3 ledger to the ‘over,’ although Carolina is just 2-2 to the ‘over’ at home this season.

Washington’s 20-17 overtime victory over Dallas on Monday night slowed up the ‘over’ run in primetime action, dropping the record to 20-5 to the ‘over.’ The short week has proved to hurt the defenses (or help the offenses) as the ‘over’ has cashed in each of the past six Thursday night contests, while home underdogs in primetime action are 3-3 SU/ATS.

New Orleans is listed as 2 ½-point favorites (-120), but several books have the Saints at -3 (even). The total is sitting at 49 as weather shouldn’t be an issue with cloudy skies and 56 degrees at game-time. The game kicks off at 8:25 PM EST and can be seen on the NFL Network.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 9
By Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Oct. 30

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

NEW ORLEANS at CAROLINA...Saints 0-4 SU and 1-3 vs. line away this season, now 2-10 vs. line away in reg, season since 2013. Saints "over" 5-1-1 in 2014. Panthers 3-1 vs. line at home in 2014 and 11-2-1 vs. line last 14 as host. "Over" and Panthers, based on "totals" and team trends.


Sunday, Nov. 2

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

SAN DIEGO at MIAMI...Chargers haven't won SU at Miami since 41-38 OT epic 1981 playoff thriller. Bolts now no covers last three in 2014 after 10-1 spread run prior. Dolphins "over" first three at home TY. Dolphins and slight to "over," based on recent team and "totals" trends.

JACKSONVILLE at CINCINNATI...Jags just 2-7-1 vs. spread last ten away. But Cincy 1-3 vs. line last four TY and Marvin Lewis 8-16-1 as home chalk since 2009. Slight to Jags, based on recent trends.

TAMPA BAY at CLEVELAND...Browns have covered first four as host this season. Bucs 2-1 as road dog, also "over" 3-0 away. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

WASHINGTON at MINNESOTA...Even after Dallas upset, Redskins 1-4 vs. line last five this season and 5-11 last 16 vs. number since mid 2013. Skins also "over" 6-2 last eight away. "Over" and Vikings, based on team and "totals" trends.

PHILADELPHIA at HOUSTON...Birds just 1-4 vs. line last five as visitor. Slight to Texans, based on team trends.

NY JETS at KANSAS CITY...Chiefs have covered their last six in 2014, Jets 1-5 vs. line last six TY. Jets also "over" 7-3 last 10 away. Chiefs and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

ARIZONA at DALLAS...Cards now on 11-3-1 spread run. Big Red also 6-1 vs. line last seven away. Arians 8-4 last 12 as dog. Cards, based on Arians trends.

ST. LOUIS at SAN FRANCISCO...Harbaugh has now won and covered three straight vs. Fisher, all by DD margins. Rams 6-11-1 as dog since LY. 49ers, based on series and team trends.

DENVER at NEW ENGLAND...Home team has won and covered all three meetings since Manning arrived in Denver (NE 2-1). Broncos now "over" four straight, while Pats "over" last five in 2014 and "over" 50-21 reg season since 2010. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

OAKLAND at SEATTLE...Pete Carroll no covers last three TY but still 27-15-2 vs. line since 2012. Seahawks, based on team trends.

BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH...Ravens romp 26-6 in Week Two. Previous five series meetings in Pitt decided by 3 or fewer. Steel "over" 7-1 last 7 at Heinz Field. "Over," based on "totals" trends.


Monday, Nov. 3

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

INDIANAPOLIS at NY GIANTS ...Eli now no SU wins or covers last 2 after 3-0 SU and spread run. Colts 3-1 vs. line away TY and "over" 7-2-1 last 10. "Over" and Colts, based on "totals" and team trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL line watch: Hold out for prime points on Panthers
By ART ARONSON

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

San Diego Chargers (+1.5) at Miami Dolphins

It’s time for the Chargers to fish or cut bait. They’ve had the bye week to figure out things after division losses to the Chiefs (close) and Broncos (not so close), and now they need a win to stay relevant in the AFC West.

A San Diego win coupled with a Denver loss in New England makes it a race again in the AFC West, but first the Chargers need to take care of business in South Beach. The teams are ranked pretty close in both offense and defense, but the extra planning time and an advantage at quarterback gives the Chargers an edge. San Diego already has two road covers and should make it a third. This spread opened San Diego +2.5 and has already gone down a point. If you're feeling super charged, now is the time to bet the Bolts.

Spread to wait on

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+2)

Early action is heavy on the Saints, with the public no doubt reacting to New Orleans’ huge victory over the Packers Sunday. And it’s likely to continue on the Saints through midweek, which could melt the number down another half-point and make the Panthers more attractive as we get close to kickoff.

New Orleans is a different team on real grass and has yet to win a game on the road – including losses at Atlanta and Cleveland. To be 0-4 away from home and a favorite against a decent team is a bit unusual, so it might be a good idea to hang loose on this game for a bit.

Total to watch

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (55)

The Patriots have had some success against Peyton Manning in the past by disguising coverages, and last year in the regular season New England just let Denver run the ball. Bill Belichick would just love a taffy pull in this one, and when the game is in Foxboro, Belichick usually gets what he wants.

It’s the biggest game of the year in the AFC (again) and the league probably doesn’t want a flagfest. That might give New England corners Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner license to be physical. Under players will probably be cashing winning tickets after this one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Where the action is: Biggest midweek NFL Week 9 line moves
By JASON LOGAN - WRITER

NFL Week 9 odds have been on the board since late Sunday and have already seen some significant jumps, with wiseguys quickly getting down on those spreads.

We talk with Scott Kaminsky about the most significant adjustments to this week’s NFL lines and where he sees those spread ending up by kickoff Sunday.

San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins – Open: -2.5, Move: -1, Move: -2

Early action hit the Chargers and moved this line as many as 1.5 points before coming back to Dolphins -2 by midweek. Most books are dealing this between -1.5 and -2 as of Wednesday afternoon. Miami has won back-to-back games and hosts a San Diego team making a cross-country trip to South Beach.

“I don’t think it has the impact nowadays,” Kaminsky says of the Bolts’ West-to-East trek. “What with the ease of travel and all the comforts they have. There used to be a theory of West teams having the edge coming East for late games, but I don’t buy into those things.”

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals – Open: -13, Move: -11

The Bengals have fallen out of favor with NFL bettors after a hot start to the season. Cincinnati opened 3-0 SU and ATS and have since posted a 1-2-1 SU mark and covered just once in that span. Bettors played against the Bengals versus Baltimore last week, which ended up being a big positive for the books with Cincy winning 27-24 as a 2.5-point home underdog. Wiseguys, however, have been partial to Jacksonville all season, covering in two of the last three weeks.

“We opened Cincinnati -13 and pop, pop, pop on the dog,” says Kaminsky. “The Bengals looked great to start the year. I even thought they were the real deal. Then they went in the tank. That win over Baltimore last Sunday was a big decision for us.”

Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings – Open: OTB

This spread has yet to see the light of day with books waiting on the Redskins’ QB plans. Robert Griffin III could return under center but with the inspiring performance of third-stringer Colt McCoy against Dallas Monday, there may be no rush to test RG3’s tender ankle.

According to oddsmakers, Washington would be a +1.5 underdog with Griffin in and a +3 pup with McCoy taking snaps Sunday. Kaminsky, however, doesn’t agree with the spread difference between those two players.

“I think +1.5 is too low,” he says. “I think if (Griffin) plays, it should be Redskins +2. If he doesn’t, and they go with McCoy, it should be Redskins +3.”

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys – Open: OTB

Another spread on hold is the line for Sunday’s showdown between the Cardinals and Cowboys in Dallas. The Cowboys are being very vague when it comes to Tony Romo’s back injury with contradicting reports floating around on the QB’s status.

According to Kaminsky, the line would be Dallas -4 with Romo active and a pick’em if Dallas has to go with backup Brandon Weeden. Despite that swing in possible lines, Romo’s value to the spread isn’t what it used to be.

“I think it’s diminished,” Kaminsky says of Romo’s impact on the odds. “With the way the offensive line is playing and the way DeMarco Murray is running, it’s not what it used to be.”

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots – Open: +3.5, Move: +3

While this line move isn’t the biggest on the Week 9 board, a significant amount of money has come in on New England as a rare underdog at home. According to Covers Expert Marc Lawrence, Tom Brady is 7-1 ATS as a home dog in his NFL career. The only loss was to Peyton Manning in 2005.

“We took quite a bit of money on New England already,” says Kaminsky. “We opened Denver -3.5 (-105) and now we’re at Denver -3 (-115). I can’t see it going much further than that, though. The Patriot look good now, but I don’t know how you stop (Peyton) Manning. There aren’t any defense right now that can stop him.”

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers – Open: -2, Move: +1

This classic AFC North battle is always entertaining and gets the big stage on Sunday night. Pittsburgh opened as a slight favorite at home after a dominating performance over the Colts in Week 8. Regardless, bettors are backing the Ravens and have forced books to jump the fence on this spread, making Baltimore road chalk.

“It’s all Baltimore money. And it’s a bit surprising to me,” admits Kaminsky. “I’m not a big fan of Pittsburgh but they’ve had two good wins over Indianapolis and over Houston on Monday night. Baltimore is the better team right now and I guess you have to give them that respect.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Separating the Super Bowl contenders from the pretenders
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

The midway point of the 2014 NFL season serves as the perfect opportunity for us to check in and re-evaluate the contenders and pretenders as it pertains to the race for a spot in February’s Super Bowl.

Remember, not all records are created equal, as some 5-3 teams look a hell of a lot better than other 5-3 teams. That means it’s essential for us to evaluate both what has already happened along with the upcoming schedules to determine which franchises fall into the “contender” category and which are simply posing as “pretenders.”

CONTENDERS

Cincinnati Bengals (20/1 to win Super Bowl XLIX)

Cincinnati stopped the bleeding caused by a disastrous three-game stretch that saw the Bengals go 0-2-1 while surrendering the alarming average of 35.6 points per game with a 27-24 win over division-rival Baltimore in Week 8.

Credit the loss of wide receiver A.J. Green (toe) and a tricky scheduling spot at New England in Week 5 for the downfall. But before you even think about throwing in the towel on Marvin Lewis and company, take note that the Bengals have an upcoming five-game stretch that features back-to-back home dates against Jacksonville and Cleveland followed by a three-game road run at New Orleans, Houston and Tampa Bay.

It’s not a stretch to think the Bengals could emerge 4-1 from that block of matchups, putting the team at 8-3-1 overall entering Week 14. Remember, the Bengals are 3-1 ATS at home this season and 14-5-1 ATS at home since 2012.

Indianapolis Colts (14/1)

A 54-31 loss at Pittsburgh in Week 8, that saw the Indianapolis defense surrender 522 passing yards to Ben Roethlisberger, has caused some concern as to whether or not the Colts are prepared to make a serious run at the AFC crown.

But the bottom line is that with a quarterback like Andrew Luck under center, who is on pace to throw for 5,462 yards this season (would rank third all-time), and a soft division in the AFC South that features doormats Jacksonville and Tennessee and the rebuilding Houston Texans, Indy should cruise into the postseason.

The Colts are 3-1 at home in 2014 while outscoring the competition by an average of 13.75 points per game and, after playing the Giants in New York on Monday night and then taking a much-deserved bye the following week, Indy returns to host New England, Jacksonville and Washington before a Week 14 road date with the Browns. If this team can nail down the second seed in the AFC playoffs, expect to see them playing in the conference championship game.

San Diego Chargers (25/1)

They’ve lost two straight and have to travel across the country for a 1 p.m. ET road date with the Miami Dolphins Sunday, but there’s absolutely no way football fans and bettors alike should be counting this team out.

The Bolts will go on a much-needed bye in Week 10 before returning for back-to-back home games with the Oakland Raiders and St. Louis Rams, which could serve as the impetus for yet another late-season charge into the playoffs.

Winning the AFC West is likely out of the question, but San Diego has demonstrated under head coach Mike McCoy in the past that they are more than capable of turning the tables on heavy favorites when playing on the road.

PRETENDERS

New Orleans Saints (20/1)

Don’t be fooled by what you saw Sunday night in a home primetime game against a hobbled Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. The Saints still have a plethora of problems highlighted by a defense that ranks 28th in the league in yardage surrendered (390.4 ypg) and 26th in points allowed (26.9 ppg).

We also have to consider the fact that this squad is 0-4 on the road in 2014 and 5-7 SU and 2-10 ATS away from the Superdome since 2013. Perhaps the Saints grind their way into the playoffs thanks to highly-suspect NFC South opposition, but this team’s best days are behind them.

Detroit Lions (20/1)

It took a Chernobyl-like meltdown from the Saints in Week 7 and a delay of game penalty in Week 8 against Atlanta for the Lions to enter the bye week at 6-2 instead of 4-4.

This team is dealing with an overwhelming amount of injuries, has a starting quarterback who is completing just 61.2 percent of his passes (23rd in NFL) with eight turnovers, and a schedule that features road dates at Arizona (Week 11) and New England (Week 12) on the horizon.

And don’t forget that Detroit’s two losses this season took place on the road against the 3-4-1 Carolina Panthers and at home against the Buffalo Bills. Head coach Jim Caldwell has this team moving in the right direction, but the Lions aren’t nearly as good as their record currently indicates.

Pittsburgh Steelers (30/1)

Back-to-back victories, the second of which came by way of a 54-31 throttling of the Indianapolis Colts Sunday, have Mike Tomlin’s Steelers at 5-3 and very much in the thick of it.

However, this is still an offense coordinated by Kansas City castoff Todd Haley and a defense that is surrendering an average of 24.5 points per game (21st in NFL). Pittsburgh’s five wins have come against teams with a combined record of 17-21-1 while the organizations’ three defeats were delivered courtesy of Baltimore, Cleveland and the dreadful Tampa Bay Buccaneers. There are still a lot of question marks here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saints struggle in Thursday night games
Andrew Avery

The New Orleans Saints visit the Carolina Panthers on Thursday Night Football and if trends are any indication, Saints backers should be cautious.

The Saints are 0-4 against the spread in their previous four Thursday nighters heading into this one - a trend that dates back to Week 12 of the 2012 season.

They've played in one Thursday night game each of the past four season and are 2-2 straight up over that stretch of futility ATS.

The Mirage Sportsbook opened the Saints as 2-point road faves, but that line has currently moved to a field goal.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

NEW ORLEANS (3 - 4) at CAROLINA (3 - 4 - 1) - 10/30/2014, 8:25 PM

Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 63-42 ATS (+16.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 71-39 ATS (+28.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Trends

NEW ORLEANS vs. CAROLINA
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games
Carolina14-6-1 SU in its last 21 games

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Stanford Cardinal at Oregon Ducks November 1, 07:00 EST
Ducks (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) have won and cashed three in a row since the stunning home loss to Arizona. 'Quack Attack' lead by Marcus Mariota (2283 yds, 24 TD, 1 Int) racking up 45.5 PPG should best inconsistent Stanford (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) scoring 25.8 per/contest. However, Stanford sporting the nation's second best scoring defense (12.5 PPG) it won't be a cake walk for Oregon. Duck bettors could get tripped up laying 9.5 points. Stanford has won/covered last two meetings, Ducks are 3-6 ATS L9 vs the conference, 4-8 ATS laying 9 or more points, 6-6 ATS L12 at Autzen Stadium.

Texas Longhorns at Texas Tech November 1, 07:30 EST
Offensively challenged Horns (20.8 PPG) blanked 23-0 by KSU this past week have a real shot a some rare offensive fireworks when they visit Texas Tech. The Red Raiders shredded 82-27 by TCU Saturday are giving up a whopping 42.5 points/game. The lean is Longhorns knowing they're 4-1 ATS after scoring 15 or less points, 4-0 ATS last four in the series while Red Raiders enter 5-16 ATS in November, 3-7 ATS in conference games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Football Trends

NFL Football Betting Trends for Thursday, Oct. 30

New Orleans at Carolina, 8:25 ET
New Orleans: 0-6 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less
Carolina: 16-6 ATS after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points



NFL Football Betting Trends for Sunday, Nov. 2

San Diego at Miami, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 13-27 ATS off a road loss against a division rival
Miami: 37-16 ATS against AFC West division opponents

Jacksonville at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 7-16 ATS as an underdog
Cincinnati: 8-1 ATS in home games against conference opponents

Tampa Bay at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 19-7 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games
Cleveland: 4-12 ATS after playing a game at home

Washington at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Washington: 4-8 ATS in weeks 5 through 9
Minnesota: 5-15 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Philadelphia at Houston, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 2-8 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games
Houston: 2-9 ATS after playing their last game on the road

NY Jets at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
NY Jets: 24-11 ATS off a home loss against a division rival
Kansas City: 25-47 ATS after allowing 150 or less passing yards in their last game

Arizona at Dallas, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 10-3 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game
Dallas: 16-11 OVER after the first month of the season

St Louis at San Francisco, 4:05 ET
St Louis: 9-1 ATS after a loss by 14 or more points
San Francisco: 40-23 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points

Denver at New England, 4:25 ET
Denver: 6-16 ATS after scoring 30 points or more in 3 straight games
New England: 17-6 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less

Oakland at Seattle, 4:25 ET
Oakland: 9-20 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
Seattle: 15-6 ATS in home lined games

Baltimore at Pittsburgh, 8:30 ET
Baltimore: 39-22 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Pittsburgh: 44-23 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored



NFL Football Betting Trends for Monday, Nov. 3

Indianapolis at NY Giants, 8:30 ET
Indianapolis: 24-10 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less
New York: 72-37 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA roundup: All's well between James, Gilbert
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

LeBron James and team owner Dan Gilbert, both commenting on the eve of the Cleveland Cavaliers' season opener, are on the same page about their relationship with the same common goal in mind.

"I think it's really good," James said Wednesday when asked about his relationship with the Cavs owner. Gilbert described their relationship as "very good, very solid."

Their relationship turned cold four years ago when James left Cleveland for Miami.

The Cavaliers open the season Thursday night when they host the New York Knicks.


---Rookie forward Julius Randle broke the tibia bone in his right leg during the fourth quarter of the Los Angeles Lakers' season-opening, 108-90 loss to the Houston Rockets and underwent surgery on Wednesday to repair the fracture.

The Lakers said in an announcement that the surgery was performed by Dr. Donald Wiss at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center. Randle is expected to make a full recovery but miss the remainder of the 2014-15 season.

Randle was the seventh overall pick in this year's draft out the University of Kentucky. As a freshman, he helped the Wildcats reach the national championship game, averaging 15 points and 10.4 rebounds. In his regular-season pro debut Tuesday, Randle came off the bench and scored two points in 14 minutes, hitting 1 of 3 shots from the field.


---The Charlotte Hornets exercised their fourth-year option on forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and their third-year option on forward Cody Zeller.

Kidd-Gilchrist, has averaged 8.2 points and 5.6 rebounds in 25.2 minutes in 140 career games since being selected with the second overall pick in the 2012 NBA Draft.

Zeller, the fourth overall pick in 2013, averaged 6.0 points and 4.3 rebounds in 17.3 minutes in 82 games as a rookie.


---The Dallas Mavericks waived guard Gal Mekel, who averaged 2.4 points, 2.0 assists and 9.4 minutes in 31 games last season.

The Israel native spent the entire exhibition season with the Mavericks, averaging 7.6 points, 3.9 assists, 1.8 rebounds and 19.4 minutes in eight games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Basketball Betting: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks October 30, 08:30 EST

When Utah Jazz visit Dallas Mavericks on Thursday what should get the attention of NBA handicappers is that Jazz have lost seven straight in Mavericks back yard (3-4 ATS) along with 18 of the last 20 visits to Dallas (7-13 ATS). Catching 'Over' gamblers attention, the series is on a 12-4 'Over' stretch when these two clash in Dallas.

 

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#1 Sports

Thursday's free selection: Minnesota Timberwolves - 4

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Wynn

Bonus Play: NBA Washington -3½ Over Orlando