Thursday 10/27/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free NFL Picks: Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans Odds & Predictions
by Alan Matthews

Look, I get that the NFL wants every team to get one national appearance on Thursday each season. But please stop force-feeding us Jaguars-Titans! This is the third straight year these two downtrodden franchises will meet on Thursday Night Football. And the NFL wonders why ratings are sagging. But even a pretty lousy NFL matchup will draw good ratings and certainly strong betting action at sportsbooks as your only other live betting options on Thursday with no World Series game that night are the NHL, NBA or a couple of Major League Soccer playoff games.

I think it's fair to say this will be the final prime-time game for both head coaches. The Titans surprised many by making Mike Mularkey the full-time coach this past offseason after he finished up last year as the interim guy. But he's clearly not the long-term answer. It's more the Titans are in some transition and there continue to be reports the team will be sold. Both Jon Bon Jovi (who tried to buy the Bills) and Peyton Manning have been linked to a purchase of the team. Manning will be an owner some day, you can mark that down.

Barring an unlikely run to the playoffs, there's zero chance that Gus Bradley is back next year at Jacksonville. I don't care how nice a guy you are or whatever, if your team is 14-40 under your watch, you get fired. Bradley was a defensive guy, and I expect his replacement will be offensive-minded to work with struggling third-year quarterback Blake Bortles. New England's Josh McDaniels is a name you hear, although he might want to wait for a better opening.

Jaguars at Titans Betting Story Lines

As mediocre-to-bad as these teams are, the AFC South is still very winnable for both. Houston leads at 4-3 and is the +100 betting favorite, but are you ready to wager on Brock Osweiler doing anything positive? Indianapolis (3-4) is at +225 but seriously flawed everywhere but quarterback. Tennessee is +400 for the division and Jacksonville +800.

Tennessee (3-4) could find itself in a three-way tie for the division lead by Sunday evening with a win here as the Texans certainly could lose at home Sunday on a short week against improving Detroit. The Titans let one get away Sunday against the visiting Colts. Marcus Mariota tied the game at 20 early in the fourth on a 7-yard TD pass to Delanie Walker and the Titans took the lead 23-20 with six minutes to go on a Ryan Succop 48-yard kick. But then the Colts scored two TDs in eight game seconds: a 7-yard Andrew Luck TD pass with 1:55 to go and a Robert Mathis 14-yard TD fumble return of a Mariota strip sack with 1:47 left. The Titans just don't know yet how to win close games consistently -- or beat Luck, who is unbeaten against them as a starter. Mariota still shows signs of being a very good pro quarterback as he didn't throw a pick and had two TD passes, including one to left tackle Taylor Lewan. Mariota has eight TD passes, tied with Matthew Stafford and Tom Brady for the NFL lead the past three weeks with a 113.1 rating and 138 yards rushing. Mariota is a definite keeper.

The Titans are one of the NFL's best rushing teams behind DeMarco Murray, a steal from Philly this offseason in an Eagles salary dump. He had 107 yards and a TD on 25 carries vs. the Colts, his third 100-yard game of the year. He's third in the NFL in rushing. The team has gotten away from rookie Derrick Henry, who looked great in the postseason. He has just 13 carries combined the past four games.

Tennessee had a few guys come out of the Colts game banged up: left guard Quinton Spain is going to miss perhaps a month with a knee issue, cornerback Perrish Cox will miss this week with a concussion, while receiver Tajae Sharpe (knee), tight end Walker (chest) and safety Rashad Johnson (neck) are in question.

The Jaguars (2-4) might beat themselves more than any team in the NFL, and that's on the head coach. In Sunday's 33-16 home loss to Oakland, the team was out of control at times with a few personal foul penalties and a fight. The Jags turned it over three times and had 13 penalties for 112 yards. Bortles wasn't very good, going 23-for-43 for 246 yards, one TD (in garbage time) and two picks (one early in the game into triple coverage in the end zone). It was his NFL-high 13th game with multiple picks since 2014.

I did think Jacksonville could win the AFC South this year because Bortles exploded for franchise records of 4,428 yards and 35 touchdowns in 2015. But he still had turnover problems with 18 picks and two fumbles. He has 11 giveaways this year and is one of the lowest-rated QBs in the NFL, including the worst on third down. I don't get it as he has two excellent receivers in Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns and a good tight end in Julius Thomas.

But the team can't run the ball (second-to-last in the NFL) and his offensive line isn't great. Bradley felt compelled to say Bortles remains his starter, but there's no point in going to journeyman backup Chad Henne. The Jaguars did lose nose tackle Roy Miller to a season-ending torn Achilles' tendon in the Raiders loss.

Jaguars at Titans Betting Odds and Trends

Tennessee is a 3-point favorite (-125) with a total of 44.5. On the moneyline, the Titans are -175 and the Jaguars +155. On the alternate lines, the Titans are -2.5 (-150) and -3.5 (+100). Jacksonville is 3-3 against the spread (1-1 on road) and 4-2 "over/under" (1-1 on road). Tennessee is 2-5 ATS (0-4 at home) and 5-2 O/U (3-1 at home).

The Jags are 6-2-1 ATS in their past nine vs. the AFC South. The Titans are 0-4-1 ATS in their past five at home vs. teams with a losing road record. The over is 9-3 in Jacksonville's past 12 after a loss. The over is 6-1-1 in Tennessee's past eight after a loss. The Jags are 8-1-2 ATS in the past 11 meetings. The under is 4-1 in the past five.

Jaguars at Titans Betting Prediction

These teams probably will split the season series because that's what they have done each of the past seven years. The Jags have won the past two vs. Tennessee on Thursday but at home. I like the Jacksonville roster better overall, but Mariota is most trustworthy under center than Bortles is. And you know the Titans can run the ball. Give the 2.5 points and go under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 8 NFL

Thursday Game

Jaguars (2-4) @ Titans (3-4)— Tennessee is 1-3 at home, with the win 28-26 over winless Browns; they are 0-3 as home favorites this year, 2-9-1 in last 12 tries overall, Titans are 3-12-1 in last 16 games with spread of 3 or less points, 0-3 this year. Jaguars are 6-11 under Bradley in games with spread of 3 or less; they’re 7-10-1 in last 18 games as a road dog, 1-1 this year. Jax is 2-4 and they were down 13-0 in 4th quarter in one of the wins. Teams are 7-7 in last 14 meetings, eight of last 10 were decided by 6 or less points. Jaguars lost four of last five visits here, with three of four losses by 6 or less points. NFL-wide, home favorites are 6-12-1 vs spread in divisional games this year. Last four Titan games went over total; over is 4-2 in Jags’ last six games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 8 NFL

Thursday Game

Jaguars (2-4) @ Titans (3-4)— Tennessee is 1-3 at home, with the win 28-26 over winless Browns; they are 0-3 as home favorites this year, 2-9-1 in last 12 tries overall, Titans are 3-12-1 in last 16 games with spread of 3 or less points, 0-3 this year. Jaguars are 6-11 under Bradley in games with spread of 3 or less; they’re 7-10-1 in last 18 games as a road dog, 1-1 this year. Jax is 2-4 and they were down 13-0 in 4th quarter in one of the wins. Teams are 7-7 in last 14 meetings, eight of last 10 were decided by 6 or less points. Jaguars lost four of last five visits here, with three of four losses by 6 or less points. NFL-wide, home favorites are 6-12-1 vs spread in divisional games this year. Last four Titan games went over total; over is 4-2 in Jags’ last six games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 8
By Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Oct. 27

JACKSONVILLE at TENNESSEE (NFL Network, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Jags 8-2-1 vs. line last 11 in series. Titans “over” 8-2 last 10 since late LY and Jags “over” 12-6 last 18. Titans 2-8-1 last 11 as Nashville chalk.
Tech Edge: Jags and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 8
By Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Oct. 27

JACKSONVILLE at TENNESSEE (NFL Network, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Jags 8-2-1 vs. line last 11 in series. Titans “over” 8-2 last 10 since late LY and Jags “over” 12-6 last 18. Titans 2-8-1 last 11 as Nashville chalk.
Tech Edge: Jags and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Jaguars (2-4) at Titans (3-4)

Date: October 27, 2016 8:25 PM EDT

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- Quarterback Blake Bortles said Tuesday that he's not a fan of the mustard-colored uniforms that the Jacksonville Jaguars will don for their Thursday night road game against the Tennessee Titans.

"I think they could have done a better job, and I think they should choose a different color," he said.

Truth is, whatever color uniform Jacksonville has modeled the last few years, the players haven't looked good in them. And if it can't muster up a better response for this game than it did in a lackluster 33-16 loss to the Oakland Raiders Sunday, it could lead to the kind of midseason changes no team wants to make.

Some felt the Jaguars could be a surprise team this year, citing the offseason additions they made to a leaky defense. Instead, they have permitted nearly 27 points per game, putting pressure on an offense that hasn't been able to keep pace.

Bortles has had trouble throwing the ball to his teammates, tossing nine interceptions in the first six games and only making marginal improvements in his accuracy. The running game remains a non-entity most weeks, forcing Bortles to throw nearly 40 times a game and making the offense too one-dimensional.

With a 2-4 record, coach Gus Bradley is squarely on a scalding seat. This is his fourth year in charge, and the one-time Seattle Seahawks defensive coordinator is just 14-40. Another poor performance in this one could lead to a firing that owner Shad Khan, who truly likes Bradley, wouldn't want to preside over but might have no choice.

Yet Jacksonville still isn't out of the picture in the AFC South, a claim that can also be made by their opponent. Tennessee (3-4) missed on a great chance to tie Houston for first when it coughed up a lead in the last two minutes Sunday against Indianapolis, losing 34-26.

So this game, despite the lack of pizzazz that comes with putting the Jaguars and Titans in prime time, will have meaning. And from Tennessee's perspective, it could have even more meaning if it was able to make a play or two at the end of last week's game, or in earlier defeats against Oakland and Houston.

"These have all been close games," Titans coach Mike Mularkey said. "We've just got to find a way -- especially like this week, that last drive, we felt like if we could hold them to a field goal, we could win that game."

Instead, Tennessee couldn't keep tight end Jack Doyle from beating linebacker Avery Williamson in coverage for the 7-yard touchdown pass that gave the Colts a 27-23 lead. Then quarterback Marcus Mariota was strip-sacked on the first play following the ensuing kickoff, and Robert Mathis returned the fumble 14 yards for the game-clinching score.

The loss dropped Mariota to 2-8 at home. Two of this year's three defeats were marked by late miscues from the second-year pro, who followed up two efficient performances with one that was a little sloppier.

"He doesn't want to let anybody down, so he doesn't want to make mistakes for his teammates, for this team, for this organization," Mularkey said. "If it's gray to him, he doesn't want to take the risk. I want him to be aggressive but smart. We definitely have the confidence in him."

Tennessee will have to play without guard Quinton Spain (knee), who figures to be out for at least the next two games after being injured in the second quarter Sunday. That could make it a bit easier for Jacksonville to neutralize DeMarco Murray, the NFL's third-leading rusher with 633 yards.

But the Jaguars have injury concerns of their own. Nose tackle Roy Miller is out for the year after tearing his right Achilles tendon against Oakland and will be replaced by backup Abry Jones.

And if Jacksonville can't up its standard of play Thursday night, it may have far greater worries than the loss of its nose guard.

--There's talk that if Bortles can't turn things around, the coaching staff could bench him for backup Chad Henne. That would be an admission that Bortles isn't the long-term answer. He hasn't helped his cause by tossing nine interceptions in the first six games, and needs to improve his completion percentage as well.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'AFC South basement dwellers clash'

This mid-week game between Jaguars and Titans insn't likely to garner much attention from those with a penchant towards sports gaming. But, if your so inclined a few betting nuggets to ponder. Jaguars have a 2-4 ATS slide away vs a division opponent, 2-5-1 ATS stretch vs a team off a loss, 2-4-1 ATS skid as road underdogs vs a team off a loss. On a possitive note, Jaguars have been good bets in this series cashing four of six tickets (4-0-2 ATS), eight of the last eleven (8-1-2 ATS) and since TNF went into full swing in 2012, Jaguars are 3-1 SU/ATS in four Thursday appearances. On the other side, Titans not a peg to hang your hopes on in front of the home audience are 2-12-1 ATS last 15 at home, a money-burning 1-16-2 ATS L19 vs a division rival, 1-14-2 ATS off a loss playing a division opponent the next game and have yet to win/cover in three Thursday attempt. Titans 0-7-1 against the betting line as home chalk got to like the +3.0 points currently being offered on Jaguars at Sportsbooks.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Thursday
By Mike Dempsey

Pre-entries for the Breeders’ Cup were announced on Wednesday and 185 horses were listed, with the big news being that defending Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) winner Found was indeed entered in both the Turf and Classic, with the latter first preference.

That sure sounds as if trainer Aiden O’Brien is going to send the filly in to do battle against the boys on dirt. She has raced 20 times in her career, all on turf.

It certainly adds some intrigue to the $6 million race, and it is no secret that O’Brien covets a win in the Classic where his record stands at 0 for 14. His best finishes have come with Giant’s Causeway, who ran second in 2000 and Henrythenavigator, the runner up over the Pro Ride surface at Santa Anita in 2008.

O’Brien also cross-entered Highland Reel in the Classic, but he seems much more likely to go in the Turf. The colt ran second to his stablemate Found in the Arc in his last outing.

O’Brien pre-entered 13 horses in the Breeders’ Cup and in total there are 38 making the trip across the pond to compete at Santa Anita on Nov. 4-5.

There are nine returning champs that are competing this year along with two others that have previous triumphs in the Breeders’ Cup. The star-studded lineup includes Nyquist, Songbird, Beholder, Found, Catch a Glimpse, Mongolian Saturday, Lady Eli, Tepin, Hit it a Bomb, Runhappy and Wavell Avenue.

This year’s Distaff will mark the first time three Eclipse Award winners will face off against each other in a Breeders’ Cup race. The showdown between Songbird, Stellar Wind and Beholder figures to be one of the most anticipated races of this year’s championship.


Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 Clm $14,000N3L (12:55 ET)
#2 Rock N Bunny 5-1
#3 Northern Screamer 4-5
#4 Rahy's Bandit 6-1
#5 Lil Renegade 4-1

Analysis: Rock N Bunny tracked the early pace and weakened in the stretch to finish fifth last out at Los Al under a seven-pound bug facing $25,000 starter allowance foes. The mare was making her first start off a 10-month layoff. She drops into an easier spot here and gets a jock upgrade for a crafty barn. If she is ready look for her price to drift down. She has a solid off track pedigree if the rains come early.

Northern Screamer was off poorly last out and raced evenly in a fourth place finish against $50,000 non-winners of three. The winner Annie Rocks came back to beat $50,000 starter allowance foes in her next outing on Oct. 13 here. She drops into an easier spot here for the hot RRod barn but can't get too excited about backing her at the 4-5 morning line.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 2,3 / 2,3,4
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 8 OClm $100,000C (4:46 ET)
#7 Eye Luv Lulu 4-1
#1 All Star Red 7-2
#3 Easy to Say 3-1
#2 Life in Shambles 5-1

Analysis: Eye Luv Lulu prompted the early pace and drew away in the stretch to beat Alw-2 optional claimers by 7 1/4 lengths over a sloppy track here. The gelding is now 7 for 10 on off tracks and may catch another one today. He was claimed out of his last outing by the Toscano barn that is 29% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim but has gone a bit colt since the Spa. He steps into a tougher spot here while picking up Gallardo.

All Star Red stalked the early pace and did not have any punch left late in a fifth place finish last out in the Challendon at Laurel Park in the slop. The colt as beaten just a nose two back against Alw-3 optional claimers at the Spa, He has a win and a second on off tracks and hard to knock anything the RRod barn has been sending out recently. He is better than he showed last out in Maryland.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,7 / 1,2,3,7
TRI: 1,7 / 1,2,3,7 / 1,2,3,7,8

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R4: #3 Only You 8-1
R5: #7 Sister Sophia 8-1
R6: #5 Nobody Move 12-1
R7: #6 Smokey Brown 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6500 Class Rating: 81

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 14 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 28 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE AUGUST 28 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 5 LA GRUNY 2/1

# 3 BLACK FIRE 4/1

# 4 INDY WARRIOR 3/1

LA GRUNY has a very strong shot to take this race. She has a good opportunity in this contest as trainer, Velez, has strong win clip with horses going this distance. Her earnings per start in dirt route events alone makes you take a look at her. Could beat this field given the 88 Equibase Speed Figure put up in her last outing. BLACK FIRE - Must be carefully examined based on the strong Equibase speed fig earned in the last contest. She has been running solidly and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the most favorable in this group of horses in this race. INDY WARRIOR - She has been running well and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the best in this group of animals. With a decent 62 speed figure last time out, will definitely be a factor in this competition.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Monticello Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Post: 3:46 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 72 - Purse:$3800 - ALL AGES W/O 2 BUT NOT MORE THAN 4 PM
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 5 R'LENE JETTA 4/1
# 1 TREE WOOD 5/2
# 2 EXCELLENT VACATION 3/1

R'LENE JETTA will not be denied the trip to the winner's circle here. Worth considering for this one if only for the good TrackMaster Speed Rating earned in the last contest. TREE WOOD - Her 74 average has this mare among the most solid speed ratings in this event. Could best this group of horses, just look at the speed rating - 72 - from her most recent affair. EXCELLENT VACATION - A formidable class horse should not be be overlooked. With an avg class number of 73 all signs point to yes. Many analyzers will recognize the fantastic speed rating in the last contest. Stacks up against any horse in this race.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Charles Town - Race #2 - Post: 7:29pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 70

Rating:

#4 OLYMPIC MISS (ML=5/1)
#5 MAGPIE MAGGIE (ML=12/1)


OLYMPIC MISS - This thoroughbred coming off a strong race in the last 30 days is a win candidate in my opinion. This jock/handler duo has been producing a very profitable ROI, right at +104. Carrying 5 pounds less this race. Trainer has her in a good spot. MAGPIE MAGGIE - I like to invest in this handicapping angle, a horse coming back off a strong effort within the last month or so. This horse is tops in earnings per race. She looks strong in today's affair.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 STERLINGS AMERICA (ML=2/1), #2 PASSION FOR MONEY (ML=5/2), #7 GLADYS'S RING (ML=9/2),

STERLINGS AMERICA - You always think this horse has a shot to win, but she falters most every time. PASSION FOR MONEY - I can't play this frequent non-winner. Gets the assignment executed infrequently. This mare recorded a speed figure in her last event which probably isn't good enough in today's event. GLADYS'S RING - This mare is always around, but just doesn't finish first. Hard to wager on her on the front end.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - OLYMPIC MISS - After a freshening, has had a few races and today she enters a sprint race. Should be back in form, so I expect this horse to perform well right here.
**


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #4 OLYMPIC MISS to win if you can get at least 5/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [4,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Gulfstream Park West - Race #3 - Post: 2:17pm - Maiden Claiming - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 72

Rating:

#7 CONTORMAR (ML=7/2)


CONTORMAR - I do like the fact this colt is back in a race so quickly. Have to give this colt a good chance. Ran a strong effort last time around the track within the last month or so. A repeat of that last effort on October 16th where he garnered a figure of 63 looks lofty enough to win in this contest.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 SIR SEBASTIAN (ML=5/2), #4 OHIO (ML=4/1), #9 HERE COMES TROUBLE (ML=5/1),

SIR SEBASTIAN - Can't play this less than sharp equine in today's sprint of 7 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a short distance race recently. OHIO - This gelding hasn't had any on the board results in short distance races in the last two months. Improbable that the speed figure he garnered on September 3rd will hold up in this clash. HERE COMES TROUBLE - Most likely won't make much of an impact this time.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #7 CONTORMAR to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:

Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:

Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #1 - 12:55 PM

6½ FURLONGS DIRT FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $14,000.00 CLAIMING $26,000.00 PURSE

#3 NORTHERN SCREAMER
#5 LIL RENEGADE
#6 BLIND DEVOTION
#2 ROCK N BUNNY

#3 NORTHERN SCREAMER takes a substantial class drop (-19) this afternoon, is the overall speed leader, and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" facing better company in each of her last five outings, hitting the board in a pair. Jockey Irad Ortiz and Trainer Rudy Rodriguez send her to the post for the "Thursday Opener" ... they've hit the board with 59% of nearly 300 entries saddled as a team to date. #5 LIL RENEGADE, a 4-1 shot, is the pace profile leader, and has hit the board in four of her last five starts, winning in her 4th race back. She's coming off a "POWER RUN PLACE" finish in her last start.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 78

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 1 DEREK FEVER 2/1

# 5 ETHAN'S LANDING 7/2

# 3 DRUMMER BOY 5/1

I think DEREK FEVER is a respectable choice. Could provide positive profits based on quite good recent speed figs with an average of 68. Has to be considered a definite contender on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone. With a nice class figure average of 81, has one of the most respectable class advantages in this group. ETHAN'S LANDING - Garnered a quite good Equibase Speed Figure last time out. DRUMMER BOY - Will more than likely be one of the front-runners of the pack going into the midpoint of the contest. With a formidable 68 speed figure last time out, will definitely be a factor in this outing.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Thursday 10/27 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


PICK 5: 4/1,2,3,5/2,4/1,3,4,6,9,10/1,3,8 = $28.80

EARLY PICK 4: 1,3,4,6,9,10/1,3,8/1,2/8 = $36

LATE PICK 4: 7,8,9/4,8/8/4,5,9,10 = $24

MEET STATS: 446 - 1322 / $2325.70 BEST BETS: 70 - 121 / $218.40

SPOT PLAYS: 29 - 121 / $182.30

Best Bet: DANCER HALL (10th)

Spot Play: RESITA (3rd)


Race 1

(4) POWERFUL MISSION has been a new filly over this track with trotting hopples on; she'll be very tough to beat here if she stays flat. (1) LADY EAGLE is worth a look for exacta bets here with the move to an inside post. (9) GAELIC LASS gave the choice something to think about to the 1/8th pole last time, then she tired. She can make the ticket here despite her post. (6) ANGORA SEELSTER should be passing some fillies late here for a smaller share.

Race 2

(5) THOR is the first foal to race from an impeccably-bred Bettor's Delight mare. There is likely more to this colt than meets the eye from his lone qualifier; top call. (2) ARDEEN raced okay vs. maidens in his debut then met some good ones in the non-winners of two class last time and he was well-beaten. He has a chance to wake up vs. maidens here. (1) LYONS WILLIAM should get put into the race here leaving from the inside; using. (3) REDHOT ROMEO can build off his decent debut at Flamboro. He is another to consider for Pick 5 tickets.

Race 3

(4) RESITA was too far back at the 3/4 last week, but he was finding his best stride late in the mile. Moving inside five posts improves his chances here; call to upset. (2) SCENE A MAGICIAN - unbeaten in the preliminary legs - is a deserving favorite and a must-use in the Pick 5. (8) RADICAL ROAD got pounded at the windows yet showed little last week. He may get more aggressive here with that clean line out of the way; consider for exotic wagers. (7) VESUVIO BI was hung out to dry last time and he paid the price for it. He can share here with an expected better trip.

Race 4

(4) BEACHES BE CRAZY showed some late interest last time after breaking early and losing all hope. I'll give her a slight nod in a completely wide-open race. (6) SUNSET FILLY should be right there with these if she can stay pacing this time. (9) THE CAMEL EXPRESS displayed good late kick in her October 20th qualifier. She is worth a look at what should be a big price. (3) SKITTLE HANOVER keeps getting closer to that initial win; using.

Race 5

(8) SHEER TALENT looked super winning the opening leg blasting off cover down the lane. She could revert to that style here and notch a minor upset. (3) MANHATTAN PLAY is the one to beat coming off a new life mark; using. (1) OUT OF SIGHT can work out a great trip here; don't discount. (10) DAENERYS HANOVER is another to consider for multi-race bets with her improving form.

Race 6

(2) MAJOR MUSCLE faces much easier here and she should improve dramatically. (1) GROUPIE DOLL is worthy of consideration adding Lasix and retaining Filion. (4) HURRICANE HAZEL races best when employing a closing style which is the approach she is likely to take here. (7) PENNIES FROM ABOVE is likely to fill one of the bottom exotics rungs here.

Race 7

(8) MR MATCH ON THE BEACH paced a 27 3/5 third 1/4 in his debut and continued on to finish 3rd. Expect a more aggressive approach from Filion here. (5) CENTURY CHURCHILL was beaten by a couple of decent ones in his past two starts. He could end his lengthy losing streak here. (1) D M REACHER could trip out and pounce late off a covered trip here; using. (7) TOY COP raced better in his past couple of starts and he has upset possibilities vs. this group.

Race 8

(8) LITTLE STUIE's race two back is good enough to beat these, but, with his obvious gait issues, it makes sense to also use others on Pick 4 tickets. (9) MAGIC MISSIONS was a good second in this class two back and the switch to Henry could result in a more aggressive steer here. (7) AGENT DINOZZO has some talent but is another that struggles to stay flat frequently. (6) GRAMSTER could wake up and make the ticket vs. this weak group.

Race 9

(4) MC MACH throttled many of these last week and is a deserving heavy favorite here. (8) DREAMFAIR B J can be closer this time if he is put into the race earlier - which is likely. (1) BILLS FELLA could split the top two for the exacta off a good trip. (7) BRAVE WORLD is a good one to toss on the bottom of the Super here.

Race 10

(8) DANCER HALL continues to impress and he will be tough to beat here off any reasonable trip. (5) MONOPOLY gets a much better post position scenario this time after finishing third to the choice last week; consider. (2) POLLAR HALL raced well when 2nd behind a heavy chalk last week. Respect his improving speed. (10) WICHITA JAZZ could be winging on the lead early, but he is unlikely to last for more than a small share.

Race 11

(9) NOTETOSELF HANOVER races well in this class and he should get another good trip near the front here; slight nod. (10) CAROLINA HURRICANE takes a massive class drop here, but his form fluctuates wildly and he has failed as a huge chalk before on the class drop. Be careful here. (5) JUST A THOUGHT is worth a look racing with a tag for the first time. (4) MY OLD MASTER looked good at the head of the lane last week but tired late in the wet going. That was a much improved effort and he can contend here, too. (1) EMPEROR will be passing horses late again for a slice.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Thursday 10/27 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF

MEET STATS: 266 - 1123 / $1,743.30

BEST BETS: 31 - 105 / $148.40

Best Bet: AMPED UP (1st)

Spot Play: KING ROYALTY (6th)


Race 1

(3) AMPED UP leaves Philly and the $15k claiming ranks and this seems to be a perfect spot for this 8-year-old gelding to get the job done. (7) BIG BAMBU was sent down the road in his last try for all the glory; threat again. (5) LISCLOON rallied strongly to nail down the victory in his latest.

Race 2

(4) UPFRONTWHOSURLADY Pacing mare is sharp based on her last two performances and if she gets the perfect trip it will be light's out for the rest of these. (2) OUR ELS DREAM N took the pocket route on her way to victory last out. (3) CLASSY LANE ROSE has hit the board in her last four tries; not out of this.

Race 3

(7) IDEAL NUGGETS Mare is knocking at the door based on her last three outings; primed to boss these at her best. (2) CANACO STAR gets post relief and that might help he cause. (8) CAROBBEAN PACETRY just missed glory by only a neck last time around and must be considered in here.

Race 4

(1) KIWI IDEAL N showed signs of life in his last start. Now the gelding draws the rail; all systems to greet the cameraman for pictures. (2) BET DEAL YET N moves to the 2-hole where he was an even third three trips ago. (6) NATURAL LEDA took charge right from the start and never looked back in his Philly finale.

Race 5

(2) WESTERN BAYAMA Gelding has good tactical speed and Brennan is giving this 4-year-old another shot for glory; gets the call. (3) SPINARAMA should appreciate the move to the inside post; player. (7) ADDWATER was nailed for win honors last his last trip to the post; watch out.

Race 6

(5) KING ROYALTY has been sharp in his last five starts and he is very capable of getting the job done given a favorable trip. (4) A PLUS HANOVER Game effort in the pocket for the victory last out. (2) MARTIAL BLISS gets post relief and should show speed against these; don't overlook.

Race 7

(2) KAMWOOD LAUGHTER N is back inside where she has done her best running. Mare can boss these at her best. (4) TRUTH AND LIBERTY rallied strongly down the lane to lose glory by a nose; big threat. (1) MACHO CHICK 9-year-old mare can get back into the swing of things from the fence; maybe.

Race 8

(1) SAMS ESCAPE put in a sharp effort for show money given the fact he was in the 8-hole last out; can make tonight a winning one with Brennan at the helm. (5) BETTOR REASON N Even finish against better in his most recent try; main danger. (4) SHADIOS was on the engine most of the way but did not have enough gas in the tank and held the second spot last week.

Race 9

(5) WE THINK ALIKE is better than in his last start and this gelding could top these if he gets the favorable trip and a fine-timed drive. (2) EMPEROR MONTANA N was in the pocket most of the way but could not get to the winner in his last trip. (3) ARTIST NIGHT came up the fence to grab the show spot last out and could have a say in the outcome.

Race 10

(7) IDEALBEACH HANOVER most likely was used up with the sharp early fractions last time around but these $25k claimers seem to be a better spot for him to get the job done; we shall see. (3) SMOOTH CRIMINAL did not fire in his last try but the gelding does have speed; threat. (1) BILLABONG BEACH keeps Brennan and now moves to the fence; beware.

Race 11

(4) SPORTS BETTOR Gelding seems to be heading in the right direction and has every right to pick them up and lay them down for win honors. (2) ROCK ABSORBER has wheeled off two straight victories; must be considered. (5) FASHION DELIGHT was on the lead most of the way but was nailed for the score by Ace Of Clubs last time out.

Race 12

(3) MILLWOOD FAITH N came close to glory last time around and this mare appears to be ready to put her best foot forward. (2) ALHAMBRA gets serious post relief and figures to be right in the mix. (1) FANTICIPATION was late on the scene to miss the victory by 3/4 length; by far not out of this.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Thursday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Belmont Park (2nd) Hoponthebusgus, 3-1
(8th) Eye Luv Lulu, 4-1


Charles Town (3rd) Royalty Fee, 3-1
(4th) Jeremy's Joker, 8-1


Delta Downs (7th) Down to Ashes, 3-1
(9th) Easy Roller, 7-2


Finger Lakes (5th) Unstoppable, 7-2
(6th) Playinwiththeboys, 3-1


Golden Gate Fields (1st) Dizzy Tizzy, 4-1
(6th) Kellianne Can Can, 7-2


Gulfstream Park West (3rd) Ohio, 4-1
(7th) Fair Prospect, 3-1


Hawthorne (4th) Valid Commander, 3-1
(6th) Out in Front, 7-2


Keeneland (3rd) Collateral Kitten, 4-1
(6th) Big Bend, 6-1


Penn National (2nd) Quiet Canadian, 4-1
(6th) Cryptic Kate, 8-1


Remington Park (4th) Fessin Around, 7-2
(7th) K Kash, 3-1


Santa Anita (3rd) Resistanceisfutile, 3-1
(4th) Resky Business, 7-2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Totals4U

Thursday's Free Selection: San Antonio/Sacramento over 206

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Platinum Plays

Free Pick: NBA Atlanta Hawks -3 over Washington

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday’s six-pack

— 30 of Carlos Santana’s 34 homers this year were hit lefthanded.

— Last grand slam in World Series? Paul Konerko for the White Sox in Game 2 of ’05 Series.

— Opening Day rosters of the 30 NBA teams: 113 foreign players, 43 white Americans.

— Kevin Harlan is a busy broadcaster; he did the NFL game in London Sunday, then flew to Oakland for the Spurs-Warriors game Tuesday night.

— In their last three road games, Jets scored only one TD on 30 drives.

— Former Wyoming hoop coach Larry Shyatt is now an assistant coach for the Dallas Mavericks in the NBA.