At the Gate - Thursday
By Mike Dempsey
A record 201 horses were entered for the Breeders’ Cup, which is coming up at Santa Anita on Oct. 31 and Nov. 1. While two-time Breeders’ Cup winners Wise Dan and Beholder are out due to an injury and a fever respectively, there is still plenty of star power.
Among the Breeders’ Cup winners returning are Goldencents (Dirt Mile), Ria Antonia (Distaff), Dank (Filly & Mare Turf), Secret Circle (Xpressbet Sprint), and Magician (Longines Turf).
The marquee matchup will come in the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), which drew 15, with the field limited to 14. Horse of the Year honors will likely be decided between Shared Belief and California Chrome.
Shared Belief is undefeated in four starts this year. Foot issues kept him off the Triple Crown trail, but he has come back to beat older runners in his last two starts, winning the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar over polytrack and winning the Awesome Again (G1) last out over the Santa Anita main track.
The colt is currently the 8-5 early betting favorite for the Classic.
California Chrome is looking to get back to his winning ways. The Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness (G1) winner had his Triple Crown bid derailed in a fourth place finish in the Belmont Stakes (G1), and after a 3 ½ month freshening he was a disappointing sixth in the Pennsylvania Derby (G2) in his last outing.
The Art Sherman trainee has won three of his four starts over the Santa Anita main track including taking the Santa Anita Derby (G1) back in April. The colt is currently the second choice in the early betting at 5-2.
Fellow three-year-olds Bayern, winner of the Pennsylvania Derby is 3-1 while Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Tonalist is the fourth choice in the early betting at 9-2. V.E. Day is the fifth choice in the betting. The colt was the upset winner of the Travers Stakes (G1) and then was fifth in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1).
The older division has been decimated by injuries and retirements, missing last year’s winner Mucho Macho Man, as well as Palace Malice and Game On Dude. The top older horse still in the hunt appears to be Zivo, who was a good second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup last out and won the Suburban Handicap (G2) back in July.
The five-year-old is trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, who won the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2011 with upsetter Drosselmeyer. His current odds are 8-1.
Final entries will be announced on Monday, and post positions will be drawn on Wednesday.
Here is today’s opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 Clm $25,000N3L (12:50 ET)
5 Wellington Wizard 8-5
7 Piscesbymoonlight 4-1
9 Poliziano 2-1
2 Call Wil 2-1
Analysis: Wellington Wizard is making his first start since July for the Tony D. barn that is 15% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. In his last outing, the gelding tracked the early pace and finished evenly in a third place finish against $20,000 non-winners of three. The gelding should be fit and ready off works at Fair Hill and this guy is bred top and bottom to handle a wet track which we seem likely to see today. The races were off the turf yesterday and I am assuming we will be off the grass again today.
Piscesbymoonlight outran his odds last out, setting thee early fractions and weakening to finish third at 15-1 against $35,000 non-winners of three over the main track here. The gelding looks headed in the right direction form wise for the Brown barn and this guy broke his maiden over a muddy track way back in 2011. He fits here if this race comes off the turf as expected.
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 5,7 / 2,5,7,9
TRI: 5,7 / 2,5,7,9 / 1,2,5,7,9
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 8 OClm $40,000N1X (4:27 ET)
3 Saturday Appeal 8-1
2 Bluegrass Flash 6-1
10 Cousin Michael 3-1
1 Goodtolook 10-1
Analysis: Saturday Appeal tracked the early pace and was no match for Sioux in the stretch in a runner up finish at this level. Sioux was a disappointing seventh in the state bred Empire Classic next out last Saturday as the beaten favorite, but the third place finisher Effinex wired the field. The gelding has now come up short four times at this condition but did land second in three of those trips and two of his three career wins were on wet tracks. CVel sticks and the 8-1 morning line looks more than fair.
Bluegrass Flash tracked the early pace and finished gamely to get to the wire a neck in front to beat state bred Alw-1 foes going seven furlongs. His three previous trips came on turf but he has run well going long on dirt and has handled a wet track. He broke his maiden here in the mud in a race taken off the turf back in June. The Clement barn is 27% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from sprint to route.
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 2,3 / 1,2,3,10
TRI: 2,3 / 1,2,3,10 / 1,2,3,8,10
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Belmont Park
R3: #3 Genre 8-1
R6: #12 Sonora 8-1
R8: #3 Saturday Appeal 8-1
R8: #1 Goodtolook 10-1
R9: #12 Warm Heart 8-1
Good luck today!