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Inside the Stats - Week 8
By Marc Lawrence

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

Holding down four of the top five spots in the current AP Poll, the SEC has immortalized itself as the premier conference in college football today. Most surprising is that Mississippi State and Ole Miss have lapped past Georgia and LSU in this year’s race to the top.

With that its time to go ‘inside the stats’ as we review teams’ season-to-date performances from a statistical perspective while also analyzing last week’s football games.

Remember, it’s important to remember that all results are ATS (Against the Spread) in games played this season through Monday, Oct. 20, unless noted otherwise.

PENNZOIL PLAYS

It’s that time of the year when we ferret out favorites on the football card each we that have been out-gained in each of their last three games.

We call them ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory. Here are this week’s potential Pennzoil favorites.

NCAAFB: Missouri and Utah.

NFL: Tampa Bay and Tennessee.

LOOKING INSIDE THE STATS

Once again there were an abundance of teams who won phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game. Those teams playing this week include:

NCAAFB: Ball State, Kansas State, Missouri and North Carolina.

NFL: New England Patriots and St. Louis Rams.

On the flip side, these are the teams playing this week who lost phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but out-gained their opponent by 100 or more yards in their last game:

NCAAFB: Central Michigan, Georgia Tech, and Virginia.

NFL: New York Jets and Seattle Seahawks.

Note: from the teams above there is one matchup this week involving a ‘Double Inside Out’ showdown: North Carolina vs. Virginia

STAYING PERFECT

We find the following teams perfect ITS (Inside the Stats) this football season. You might be surprised at who you find on these lists.

NCAAFB: 100% ITS Teams
Arizona, East Carolina, Marshall and Ohio State

NCAAFB: 0% ITS Teams
Eastern Michigan, SMU and Vanderbilt

Note: Only one team in the NFL is perfect ITS in every game this season, Tampa Bay. The Bucs have been outgained in all six of their games.

HOT TRENDS

From my weekly NFL column in the USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY, here are some of the hottest trends surrounding this week’s card from my all-knowing database:

The Atlanta Falcons are 14-1 SU and 13-1-1 ATS before back-to-back away games.

The Carolina Panthers are 10-0 ATS at home off a double-digit SU loss when hosting NFC West division opponents.

The Miami Dolphins are 1-6 SU and ATS as favorites with a .500 record.

The San Diego Chargers are 8-0-1 ATS as visitors the last nine games at Mile High Stadium in Denver.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six meetings with the Minnesota Vikings.

Dallas Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett is 9-0 SU but 1-8 ATS as a division home favorite of seven or more points.

New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is 5-0 SU and ATS at home in his NFL career after playing a Thursday game.

Oakland Raiders head coach Tony Sparano is 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS as a road ‘dog versus an opponent off a SU loss.

New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees is 10-1 SU and ATS at home in non-division games off a SU non-division loss.

STAT OF THE WEEK

The New Orleans Saints are 22-1 SU and 20-3 ATS in their last twenty-three home games under Sean Payton.
 
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NFL Tech Trends - Week 8
By Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Oct. 23

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

SAN DIEGO at DENVER...Bolts have covered both against Peyton Manning at Sports Authority Field since 2012. Though Denver has won and covered both at Qualcomm past two years! Bolts no covers last 2 TY, Denver 14-6 vs. line last 20 at home in reg. season. Slight to broncos, based on team trends.



Sunday, Oct. 26

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

DETROIT at ATLANTA (at Wembley Stadium, London)...Lions have won and covered last two on road after 6-15-1 previous 22 away. Falcs no covers last 4 or 5 of last 6 TY. Lions "under" 8-2 last 10 since late 2013. "Under" and slight to Lions, based on recent Detroit trends.


MINNESOTA at TAMPA BAY...Vikes "under" 5-2 last seven. Bucs 0-3 vs. line at home this season and no covers last four at Raymond James. Slight to Vikings and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


CHICAGO at NEW ENGLAND...Bears are 3-1 SU and vs. line away TY. They're also "over" 15-7-1 since LY. Belichick now "over" four straight in 2014 and "over" 49-21 last 70 in reg. season.. "Over," based on "totals" trends.


ST. LOUIS at KANSAS CITY...Chiefs have covered last four TY and now get home after playing 4 of first 6 away. Though Andy Reid only 3-7 vs. spread at Arrowhead since last season. Chiefs also "over" 8-4 last 12 since late 2013. Rams "over" last three TY. "Over," based on ;totals" trends.


SEATTLE at CAROLINA...Hawks 11-4-1 vs. spread last 15 away from CenturyLink and 7-14-2 overall vs. number since 2012. Cam "over" last four in 2014. "Over" and Seahawks, based on "totals" and team trends.


BUFFALO at NY JETS...Rex no SU wins last six TY but did break four-game spread losing streak in game at Belichick. Jets 0-4 vs. line at home in 2014, though host team has won and covered last four in series with Bills. Buffalo "under" 6-1 this season. "Under," based on Bills "totals" trends.


MIAMI at JACKSONVILLE...Jax 2-8-1 last 11 vs. spread at EverBank. Dolphins no covers in three tries as visiting chalk for Philbin, though they are 9-4 last 13 on board. Dolphins, based on team trends.


HOUSTON at TENNESSEE...Texans have covered 5 of last 6 vs. Titans and "overs" 5-2 last seven in series. Texans and "over," based on series trends.


BALTIMORE at CINCINNATI...Ravens have covered 5 of last 6 TY. Bengals no covers last three TY. Slight to Ravens, based on recent trends.


PHILADELPHIA at ARIZONA...Arians 11-3-1 last 15 vs. spread. Also 7-3-1 last 11 vs. number at home. Cards, based on team trends.


INDIANAPOLIS at PITTSBURGH...Colts have covered last four on road in regular season, "over" 6-2-1 last nine since late 2013. Steel "over" 6-1 last seven at Heinz Field. Colts and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.


OAKLAND at CLEVELAND...Raiders "over" 9-4-1 last 14 since mid 2013. "Over," based on "totals" trends.


GREEN BAY at NEW ORLEANS...Sean Payton finally fails to cover at home vs. Bucs after 17-0-1 Superdome spread run, though Payton still 19-0 SU last 19 as host. Pack over" 6-1 TY and 9-1 last ten reg.-season games. But Pack just 1-6 last 7 as road dog. "Over" and Saints, based on "totals" and team trends.


Monday, Oct. 27

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

WASHINGTON at DALLAS...Dallas has won last 6 SU but is only 2-2 vs. line at home TY and 8-15 vs. spread last 23 as host. Skins have covered 7 of last 8 meetings, but no covers last four in 2014. And Skins just 2-7 last nine as road dog. Slight to Cowboys, based on recent trends.
 
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Broncos seek 4th straight win Thursday vs. Chargers
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox


SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (5-2) at DENVER BRONCOS (5-1)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Line: Denver -8, Total: 51

The Chargers look to get back in the win column on Thursday night when they visit a red-hot Broncos team in search of a fourth straight victory.

San Diego hosted Kansas City in Week 7 and lost 23-20 on a game-winning field goal by Cairo Santos with just 21 seconds remaining. Meanwhile, Denver steamrolled San Francisco in a 42-17 home victory last week. Broncos QB Peyton Manning became the NFL’s all-time leader in touchdown passes during that game, but he is just 3-8 ATS versus the Chargers in his career, while San Diego QB Philip Rivers is 11-6 ATS versus Denver. Since 2012, the Broncos are 2-1 SU when hosting in this series, but the Chargers are 2-0-1 ATS in those games. Denver has won five of the past six games between these teams SU. Over the past two seasons, San Diego is 11-3 ATS as an underdog, and the club is also 14-5 ATS off one or more consecutive Unders over the past three seasons. The Broncos, however, are 19-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over this same timeframe. They’re also 21-8 ATS in games played on a grass field during that time. CBs Brandon Flowers (concussion) and Jason Verrett (shoulder) are both questionable to return for the Chargers in this game, while RBs Donald Brown (concussion) and Ryan Mathews (knee) remain out. RB Montee Ball (groin) will likely miss this game for the Broncos, but should be back in Week 9.

Can the Chargers slow down the high-powered Broncos offense? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts have remained hot over the past five weeks, combining for a 58% ATS mark (45-33). StatFox Scott is 70% ATS (14-6) in Best Bets during this timeframe, and 61% ATS (17-11) on the season. StatFox Dave is 64% ATS (14-8) in Best Bets during these five weeks to improve to 56% ATS (18-14) on the season, while StatFox Brian has gone 59% ATS (10-7) in NFL Best Bets since Week 3, and continues to roll in NFL Totals with a stellar 71% record (15-6) for the season.

The Chargers had a golden opportunity to make a statement in their division, but they were unable to hold off the Chiefs last week. QB Philip Rivers (1,961 pass yards, 17 TD, 3 INT) had his worst game of the season, going 17-of-31 for 205 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. The quarterback wasn’t as accurate as he has been this season, but he should be able to bounce back against this extremely beatable Broncos’ secondary. After back-to-back games with over 100 rushing yards, RB Branden Oliver (316 rush yards, 2 TD) gained just 67 yards on 15 carries (4.5 YPC) last week. The Broncos’ defensive line has done a solid job of stopping the run this season, so this matchup is not favorable for the Chargers’ backup. TE Antonio Gates (27 rec, 363 yards, 7 TD) continues to fight off Father Time, catching three passes for 61 yards and a touchdown in the loss to the Chiefs. He’ll need to work the middle of the field successfully if the Chargers are going to win in Denver. San Diego is allowing just 209.6 passing yards per game (3rd in NFL) and 106.9 rushing yards per game (13th in NFL). They’ll likely allow the Broncos to run the ball in order to have extra pass coverage.

Denver put on a dominant display Sunday night against the 49ers. Defensively, the Broncos didn’t force any turnovers but they did allow just 310 total yards to an offense that is capable of exploding on occasion. They also held the 49ers to just 3-of-13 on third down conversions. Denver is allowing just 74.3 rushing yards per game (3rd in NFL), so they will make running the ball extremely tough on Branden Oliver. QB Peyton Manning (1,848 pass yards, 19 TD, 3 INT) lit up the 49ers with 318 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions in the game. It seems as though it doesn’t matter what defense he’s playing at this point, as Manning is capable of throwing on anybody, so the Chargers will have to drop their linebackers into coverage more than they’d like. That means RB Ronnie Hillman (240 rush yards, 2 TD) will have plenty of room to run. He had 74 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries against the 49ers. Hillman also caught four passes for 29 yards while proving not to be a liability in the pass-blocking department. WR Demaryius Thomas (39 rec, 662 yards, 6 TD) continues to be Peyton Manning’s go-to-guy this season. He caught eight passes for 171 yards and two touchdowns in the win over San Francisco. The Chargers will have a lot of trouble stopping somebody with his combination of size and speed.
 
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Chargers at Broncos
By Kevin Rogers

The top two teams in the AFC West face off in Denver on Thursday night in a key divisional showdown for the upper-hand halfway through the season. The Chargers invade Sports Authority Field just one half-game behind the Broncos in their first meeting since Denver bounced San Diego from the playoffs last January.

Before we look back at that divisional playoff contest, the Broncos (5-1) are still riding a high after Peyton Manning broke Brett Favre’s all-time touchdown record in a 42-17 rout of the 49ers. Denver easily cashed as 6 ½-point favorites to improve to 4-0 at home, which includes three victories over playoff teams from last season (Indianapolis, Kansas City, San Francisco). Manning tosses four touchdown passes, marking the fifth time this season the Denver quarterback has thrown at least three touchdowns in a game.

The Chargers (5-2) were tripped up at home by the Chiefs last Sunday as San Diego’s five-game winning streak got snapped. In spite of that hot stretch, money initially came in on Kansas City, who opened as five-point underdogs, as that number dropped to three by kickoff. The Chargers led, 14-10 at halftime, but the Chiefs ran off 10 unanswered points in the third quarter to grab a 20-14 advantage. After the Lightning Bolts tied the game at 20-20, the Chiefs took the lead for good with a 48-yard field goal in the final minute to knock off San Diego, 23-20. The loss ended a six-game home winning streak over the Chiefs that dated back to 2008.

These division rivals met up three times last season, as the Broncos took two of the three matchups. In the regular season, Denver jumped out to a 28-6 lead at Qualcomm Stadium in November 2013, before the Chargers rallied late with a couple of touchdowns. The Broncos held on for a 28-20 triumph to cover as seven-point favorites, as Manning torched the Chargers’ secondary for four touchdowns. The Chargers avenged that home loss one month later as 10-point road underdogs in a 27-20 upset at Sports Authority Field. San Diego held the ball for nearly 39 minutes, while limiting the Broncos to just 18 yards rushing.

Denver and San Diego would lock horns again in the divisional playoff round after the Chargers knocked out the Bengals in the Wild Card round. The Broncos held off the Chargers, 24-17 to advance to the AFC Title game, as Denver built a 24-7 fourth quarter edge. San Diego scored 10 late points to cash as 8-point underdogs, finishing last season at 5-1-1 ATS in the road ‘dog role. All three meetings finished ‘under’ the total, but all three totals were totally inflated at 56, 56 ½, and 55.

This season, Mike McCoy’s squad owns a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record as an underdog, while being listed in this role for the first time since Week 3 at Buffalo. Prior to the Kansas City loss, the Chargers cleaned up on plenty of garbage, beating the Jaguars, Jets, and Raiders in three consecutive weeks, as those clubs have combined for just two wins this season.

Denver is riding a three-game ‘over’ streak, while finishing ‘over’ the total in three of four home contests this season. Thursday’s contest will be just the second time that John Fox’s team has a total above 50, as the season opener against the Colts barely went ‘over’ 53 as the Broncos won, 31-24. Denver has gone ‘under’ the total in five of the past six games dating back to last season with a total of 50 or higher.

Since Manning arrived in Denver in 2012, the Broncos have won 13 of 14 games against division foes, while posting an 8-5-1 ATS record. The Chargers have put together a 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS record on the road within the AFC West since 2010, including an impressive 6-0 ATS mark as an underdog.

The ‘over’ continues to be on fire in primetime action, hitting in 18 of 22 games this season. This is by far the best Thursday night matchup as plenty of these games have been disappointing, as favorites have posted a 5-2 SU/ATS record in these contests, while the home clubs own the same 5-2 SU/ATS mark.

The Broncos are listed as eight-point home favorites, while that number continues to creep up after opening up at seven on Sunday night. The total sits at 51 ½, the highest total on a Thursday night game this season. The game kicks off at 8:25 PM EST and can be seen on CBS and the NFL Network.
 
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NFL Opening Line Report: McCoy a key to Chargers-Broncos matchup
By COLIN KELLY

Two of the top teams in the AFC will get back to work on a short week when West Division rivals Denver and San Diego square off in the Mile High City on Thursday night.

The defending AFC champion Broncos (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) come in off a 42-17 blitzing of San Francisco as a 6.5-point favorite in the Sunday night game. The Chargers (5-2 SU and ATS) had their five-game SU winning streak snapped Sunday in a 23-20 home loss to Kansas City as a 3-point fave.

John Lester, senior lines manager said Chargers coach Mike McCoy – a former Broncos assistant – is a key component.

“You’ve always got the Mike McCoy factor supporting San Diego in this matchup. They played them closely all three times last year, beating them at Mile High (in the regular season), and I expect much of the same this week,” Lester said.

With the Broncos’ convincing win over the 49ers, Lester said, “We’ll make the Broncos around 6-point chalk.”

Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers

Defending Super Bowl champion Seattle (3-3 SU and ATS) has already matched its loss total from all of the 2013 season, following up its home setback to Dallas with a 28-26 road loss to St. Louis as a 6.5-point chalk Sunday.

Carolina (3-3-1 SU, 4-3 ATS), another NFC playoff team from last year, is in nearly the same boat. The Panthers, who went 12-4 SU last year, got clocked Sunday at Green Bay, losing 38-17 as a 6.5-point underdog.

“Bizzaro Cam Newton was in uniform for Carolina, and he’s always a wild card,” Lester said. “Meanwhile, you’ve got the defending champs staring three straight losses square in the face. We’re expecting the public to back Seattle in a big way.”

Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (-2)

Aaron Rodgers and Co. are on fire of late, rebounding from a 1-2 start (1-1-1 ATS) to win their last four in a row SU and ATS, including three in blowout fashion. On Sunday, the Pack (5-2 SU, 5-1-1 ATS) scored the first 28 points of the game and breezed to a 38-17 win over Carolina laying 6.5 points at home.

On the flip side, New Orleans (2-4 SU and ATS) is watching its season slowly get away. On Sunday at Detroit, the Saints let a 23-10 fourth-quarter lead slip away in the final few minutes, giving up two TDs in a 24-23 loss. On the bright side, New Orleans cashed as a 1.5-point pup.

“The Packers offense is beginning to show signs of its form a few years ago. I don’t know how Rob Ryan’s defense is going to keep it under control,” Lester said. “That said, Green Bay’s defense isn’t as good as it looked (against Carolina). We didn’t want to make the Saints underdogs in their dome, but given the current climate of both teams, it was close.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)

Philly (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) is coming off its bye week before traveling cross-country, after steamrolling the New York Giants 27-0 as a 1-point chalk on Oct. 12. Arizona (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) surprisingly leads division rivals Seattle and San Francisco, and comes in off a 24-13 win at Oakland as a 3.5-point fave Sunday.

“This is a good measuring stick for both teams and about as much of a tossup game as you can get,” Lester said. “The Eagles got a breather with their bye week, while Arizona took care of business in what many thought to be a trap game at Oakland. I think the home team gets it done here in a close one.”
 
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NFL Week 8 line watch: Bettors should be quick to back Chiefs
By ART ARONSON

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

St. Louis Rams at Kansas City Chiefs (-6)

Would you bet on a team the week after it plays in the Super Bowl? That’s essentially what you would be doing if you lay cash on the Rams in this one. St. Louis used every tactical weapon in its arsenal to take down the Seahawks, and you have to wonder how much petrol will be left in the tank when they travel to Kansas City this coming Sunday.

The Chiefs are coming off the high of a solid win in San Diego that kept them in the playoff conversation, and they are a solid 4-2 against the spread. Kansas City will no doubt do everything it can to run the ball against the Rams’ 28th-ranked rush defense, so all the arrows are pointing toward the Chiefs in this one. Jump before the line goes up a half-point.


Spread to wait on

Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) at Arizona Cardinals

This is the early game of year in the NFL, with both teams at 5-1. The Eagles have been pasting teams at home, but have actually been outscored by opponents in their two home games. Still, early money is on the Eagles, who are a national team and always attract play.

There is a possibility that this one could move to 2-points as heavy money on Philly from the East continues to flood the offshores. Arizona is 5-1 and starting to take of advantage of dysfunction in San Francisco and Seattle to make a real run at the NFC West.


Total to watch

Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (In London) (47)

These are the worst of times in Atlanta, where the 2-5 Falcons are basically out of it already in the NFC South and giving up gobs of points, despite a benign schedule so far. Fans have been clamoring for Mike Smith’s head on a platter, and there is already talk about bringing in Rex Ryan to fix what ails the defense, which is just about everything.

The Lions aren’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard every week, but they’ve been winning with their league-best defense that allows only 15 points a game. The Falcons will want to run the ball to stay competitive and keep the fans off their backs, so a long look at an under play is needed here.
 
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Thursday Night Football: Chargers at Broncos

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 51)

The new touchdown king of the NFL quarterbacks isn't getting much time to savor his record-breaking night, as Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos face a quick turnaround and a key division clash against the visiting San Diego Chargers on Thursday. The Broncos are aiming for their fourth straight win after Manning passed for 318 yards and four TDs in a 42-17 win over San Francisco on Sunday night. Denver has a half-game cushion in the AFC West over San Diego, which had a five-game winning streak snapped with a 23-20 loss to Kansas City on Sunday.

Manning's 33rd game of four or more touchdowns gave him 510 career TD passes, moving him past Brett Favre (508) for the NFL's all-time lead. Both Manning (9-2) and Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers (4-1) have performed well on Thursday, though Rivers and San Diego outdueled Manning and the Broncos in a 27-20 victory on Thursday night last December. The teams have split their 10 meetings over the past five seasons, but the Broncos have won four of the past five.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: Denver has opened as 7.5-point home faves with a total of 51.

INJURY REPORT: Chargers - RB Donald Brown (questionable, concussion), DB Brandon Flowers (questionable, concussion), CB Jason Verrett (questionable, shoulder). Broncos - RB Montee Ball (questionable, groin).

WEATHER REPORT: Temperatures will be in the high-60s under clear skies. Wind will blow toward the north endzone at 3 mph.

POWER RANKINGS: Chargers (-3.25) + Broncos (-8.5) + home field (-3.0) = Broncos -8.25

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Denver has been like a second home for the Chargers where they are 6-3 SU and 8-0-1 ATS their last nine visits. With emotions running high for the Broncos last week following Peyton Manning’s record shattering performance, it would be no surprise to San Diego bounce back off last week’s poor performance and take this game right down to the wire." Marc Lawrence.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened this up at -7 and it bounced around between that and -7.5 for about 36 hours. We’ve since moved to -8. After initially dropping the total a point from the opener of 51, we’ve seen steady action on the over to get it back to the original number. Overs in primetime NFL games this year have been money so almost 90 percent of our wagers have been on that side." John Lester.

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (5-2 SU 5-2 ATS, 4-2 O/U): Rivers (1,961 yards, 17 TDs, 3 INTs) has put up huge numbers, but the offense stalled against the Chiefs with a season-low 251 total yards. The Chargers also had a tough time stopping the run, giving up a season-high 154 yards on the ground, but that's not likely to be a concern against Denver. San Diego ranks third in the NFL against the pass and has not allowed more than 300 passing yards yet this season.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 O/U): Even at age 38, Manning (1,848 yards, 19 TDs, 3 INTs) boasts the top quarterback rating in the AFC, and the Broncos have put up 31 or more points in three straight games. Denver's receiving corps will test San Diego's strong pass defense, as four receivers have at least 17 receptions and at least one touchdown. The Broncos' defense has been somewhat susceptible to the pass but ranks third in the league against the run and hasn't allowed more than 62 rushing yards during the three-game winning streak.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Chargers are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last four games in October.
* Under is 4-0 in Broncos last four vs. AFC West.

CONSENSUS: The Broncos have the slight edge at 50.34 percent.
 
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Chargers have been money when facing Broncos
Justin Hartling

The San Diego Chargers have shown glimpses of being one of the top teams in the NFL and they will put that to the test against Denver. Even though it will be a tough task, the Chargers are money against the spread when they play the Broncos.

San Diego is 11-4-2 ATS in the last 17 against the Broncos and 7-0-4 ATS when they travel to Mile High.

Chargers are currently 7.5-point dogs.
 
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NFL

SAN DIEGO (5 - 2) at DENVER (5 - 1) - 10/23/2014, 8:25 PM

Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 49-28 ATS (+18.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 84-60 ATS (+18.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 4-1 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 
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NFL

Trends

SAN DIEGO vs. DENVER
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Diego's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games at home
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Diego
 
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NFL Football Trends

NFL Betting Trends for Thursday, Oct. 23rd

San Diego at Denver, 8:25 ET
San Diego: 29-14 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5
Denver: 11-3 ATS after having won 3 out of their last 4 games


NFL Betting Trends for Sunday, Oct. 26th

Detroit at Atlanta, 9:30 AM ET
Detroit: 7-21 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins
Atlanta: 0-7 ATS in road games in the first half of the season

Minnesota at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 14-5 ATS after playing their last game on the road
Tampa Bay: 10-22 ATS in home games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored

Chicago at New England, 1:00 ET
Chicago: 25-43 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games
New England: 55-36 ATS after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games

St Louis at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
St Louis: 2-11 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games
Kansas City: 29-14 ATS in home games in non-conference games

Seattle at Carolina, 1:00 ET
Seattle: 18-6 ATS after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points
Carolina: 79-55 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread

Buffalo at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 31-15 ATS after a win by 3 or less points
New York: 3-13 ATS off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog

Miami at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Miami: 10-27 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better
Jacksonville: 5-15 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points

Houston at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Houston: 1-9 ATS after playing their last game on the road
Tennessee: 6-16 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points

Baltimore at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 60-39 UNDER off a home win
Cincinnati: 10-2 ATS in home games

Philadelphia at Arizona, 4:05 ET
Philadelphia: 7-0 ATS in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest
Arizona: 40-22 OVER after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh, 4:25 ET
Indianapolis: 6-0 ATS as a road favorite
Pittsburgh: 60-36 ATS in weeks 5 through 9

Oakland at Cleveland, 4:25 ET
Oakland: 26-13 ATS in road games off a non-conference game
Cleveland: 50-28 UNDER after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game

Green Bay at New Orleans, 8:30 ET
Green Bay: 77-51 ATS after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games
New Orleans: 10-24 ATS in home games after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games


NFL Betting Trends for Monday, Oct. 27th

Washington at Dallas, 8:30 ET
Washington: 4-13 ATS as an underdog
Dallas: 8-1 OVER after 2 or more consecutive wins
 

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