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Preview: Ducks (0-0) at Stars (0-0)

Date: October 13, 2016 8:30 PM EDT

FRISCO, Texas -- Former division rivals Anaheim and Dallas are both ready to start the 2016-17 season on Thursday night at American Airlines Center and look forward to doing so for similar reasons.

The Ducks won the Pacific Division title last season with 103 points but lost in the first round of the playoffs to Nashville, a stinging seven-game defeat that was a big reason why coach Bruce Boudreau was fired after the season.

Randy Carlyle, who has the most wins in franchise history and led the Ducks to win the Stanley Cup in 2007 during his previous stint in Anaheim, returns for a second go-around in SoCal.

And after a tough training camp, Ducks regulars like defenseman Cam Fowler are ready to kick off the second Carlisle era in Anaheim.

"We've all come together for the last month or so and gotten through a tough training camp," Fowler told the teams' website on Wednesday. "It's an exciting time and hopefully the start of good things to come."

It's a similar story for Dallas, which won the Central Division last season, the Stars' first division title since 2008 and was the top seed in the Western Conference.

The Stars also won their first playoff series since 2008, eliminating the Minnesota Wild in six games in the opening round before falling to division rivals St. Louis in seven games in the conference semifinals, a series punctuated by a 6-1 loss in Game 7 in Dallas on May 11.

But any thought about that disappointing defeat lingering with the Stars to start this season is misguided, according to Dallas forward Patrick Eaves.

"That's in the past and we just have to worry about what's in front of us," Eaves said. "It's exciting to get ready to start a new season. We'll be ready to go. It should be another good year, but we're looking for another good start."

Dallas, who led the NHL with 267 goals last season, heads into the season with injuries already being a factor.

Cody Eakin, who centered the Stars' top line for much of last season, is out until at least mid-November with a knee issue. Veteran forward Ales Hemsky, who had 39 points last season, will miss the first few games with a groin injury.

And even with key offensive cogs Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin both missing time during preseason, the Ducks know that the Stars' mentality remains a simple yet effective one.

"They like to play that track-meet game," Carlyle told the media after practice on Wednesday in Dallas. "If you allow them to continually enter with speed, you're going to be in trouble. They can put the puck in the net and play at a high pace.

"Their defensemen like to join the rush. We can't allow their defensemen to be consistently up the ice. That's creating havoc for us."

Both teams were active in the offseason, but the Ducks made more moves. In June, Anaheim traded goaltender Frederik Andersen to Toronto and then acquired Jonathan Bernier from the Maple Leafs in July.

The Ducks also added veteran forwards Jared Boll, Mason Raymond and Antoine Vermette along with defensemen Nate Guenin and Jeff Schultz while re-signing Sami Vatanen to a multiyear contract.

Anaheim is currently at an impasse in negotiations with defenseman Hampus Lindholm and forward Rickard Rakell, who are not with the team, creating a noticeable void.

Despite all the changes the Ducks made to their roster this summer and fall, Stars coach Lindy Ruff has coached against Carlyle enough to know exactly how he likes his teams to approach each game.

"Well, (they're) tough teams to play against, (have) real good structure," Ruff said. "We really feel that the chances will be limited. We're going to have to use our speed to try to get in behind that defense.

We're going to have to win our share of one-on-one battles down low to create opportunities because they'll be a tough team once they're inside their own end."

Dallas made only a few changes to its roster from last season, notably in the back end, where Jason Demers, Alex Goligoski and Kris Russell all departed and Dan Hamhuis came in. The Stars also added veteran forwards Jiri Hudler and Lauri Korpikoski.

After experiencing several offseasons earlier in Ruff's tenure where plenty of changes were made, Benn likes looking across the dressing room and now seeing continuity in the form of plenty of familiar faces.

"We've got a good group in here and I think we made another step last year, but it's a whole new year," Benn said. "I don't think we're going to be a surprise to anyone anymore. Teams know how good this team is. It's just up to us to back it up, have that same killer instinct and mentality that we're going to go far every year, we're going to be a tough team to play against and a tough team to beat."
 
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NFL opening line report: The Falcons face another very tough test in Week 6
By PATRICK EVERSON

Week 6 of the NFL season kicks off with the defending Super Bowl champions looking to rebound from their first loss since last December. We talk about the opening lines with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor.

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+3)

Denver had to start rookie quarterback Paxton Lynch on Sunday against Atlanta, and it was rough sledding. Lynch was sacked six times and threw an interception, and the Broncos (4-1 SU and ATS) lost 23-16 as 3.5-point home favorites.

San Diego (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) had its chances to beat Oakland or at least force overtime, but had a late field goal blocked in a 34-31 road loss as a 3.5-point underdog.

“We had a tough time with this number,” Childs said. “The Chargers are just beat up and arguably the most injured of any team in the NFL. They looked flat-out gassed in the second half against Oakland and now have to play on a short week.”

Childs said the opening number for this Thursday night game comes with an asterisk, not knowing whether Lynch is starting or Trevor Siemian can return from a shoulder injury.

“The Broncos have serious questions at quarterback, and without definitive word as to who will start, Lynch or Siemian, we have placed half-limits on this prime-time matchup until we get word,” Childs said. “Before Sunday’s game, Lynch wasn’t much of a downgrade from Siemian. After what we saw against the Falcons, we were absolutely wrong. He’s a big-time downgrade, in my opinion.

“If it’s Siemian who starts, we’ll go to Broncos -4. If it’s Lynch, then the Broncos go down to 2.5-point road favorite.”
 
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Opening Line Report - Week 6
By Marcus DiNitto

Here are the opening Las Vegas betting lines for Week 6 of the 2016 NFL season, with early moves and differences among books noted. Numbers listed are the Vegas consensus as of about 11 p.m. ET on Sunday night.

Thursday, Oct. 13

Denver Broncos (-2.5) at San Diego Chargers

The opening number of this Thursday nighter was hung with the assumption that Trevor Siemian will not be back, according to Ed Salmons, oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. Should Siemian be ready to go on Thursday, the line would be in the 3, 3 (-120) range.

“He wasn’t even dressed as the backup (Sunday). I’d be shocked if he can play in four days,” Salmons said.

With rookie Paxton Lynch in for Siemian, Denver lost on Sunday for the first time this season, 23-16 to Atlanta.

“The quarterback meant more than we all thought,” Salmons added. “I didn’t think there’d be that much of a dropoff, but there was today.”
 
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NFL Week 6 lines that make you go hmmm...
By PETER KORNER

Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmmm…” in Week 6:

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+3, 45)

The first twist of Week 6 comes on Thursday night. Denver is at San Diego where the Chargers have been downright brutal to their faithful. Throw out Denver’s last game as it didn’t have its starting quarterback ready to go. But what I see here is a pretty stereotypical, mass following trend of going Over on a marquee game.

In typical fashion, the tip-off was the initial move lower than the opening 46. I’ve see this a million times. This is a sure bet that money will fly on the Over as soon as Nevada parlay cards are printed and carved into stone. Every week, I suggest to the Nevada sportsbooks to pump up the favorites and totals on Thursday, Sunday and Monday night games.

But this 45 looks suspect. With all due respect for Denver’s defense, San Diego’s lowest total output this season has been 48 points. The other scores landed 65, 69, 52, and 60. Before last game, the Broncos were scoring at an even 30 points per game. The Chargers will be in full crisis mode on national TV and should provide some fireworks. Denver will keep pace. This looks to go Over so take this as early as you can because this is only going one way come kickoff.
 
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NFL Week 6 lines that make you go hmmm...
By PETER KORNER

Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmmm…” in Week 6:

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+3, 45)

The first twist of Week 6 comes on Thursday night. Denver is at San Diego where the Chargers have been downright brutal to their faithful. Throw out Denver’s last game as it didn’t have its starting quarterback ready to go. But what I see here is a pretty stereotypical, mass following trend of going Over on a marquee game.

In typical fashion, the tip-off was the initial move lower than the opening 46. I’ve see this a million times. This is a sure bet that money will fly on the Over as soon as Nevada parlay cards are printed and carved into stone. Every week, I suggest to the Nevada sportsbooks to pump up the favorites and totals on Thursday, Sunday and Monday night games.

But this 45 looks suspect. With all due respect for Denver’s defense, San Diego’s lowest total output this season has been 48 points. The other scores landed 65, 69, 52, and 60. Before last game, the Broncos were scoring at an even 30 points per game. The Chargers will be in full crisis mode on national TV and should provide some fireworks. Denver will keep pace. This looks to go Over so take this as early as you can because this is only going one way come kickoff.
 
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Wiseguys are advising that these Week 6 NFL lines are going to move
By AAA SPORTS

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Game to bet now

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-3.5)

Bill O’Brien has to be pulling out his hair about now. His Texans have been able to beat mediocre and poor teams (Tennessee, Kansas City, San Diego) but have shriveled up into the fetal position against better competition (New England, Minnesota). Now comes a real AFC South test against the Colts, and an opportunity to take control of the division and put Indy into a good-sized hole.

But nothing is guaranteed, not after Brock Osweiler stunk out the joint against the Vikings – 19 for 42, one interception, four sacks. This is definitely not a must-win division game for Houston, but if the Texans are going to replace Indianapolis as the AFC South heavyweight, it would be a nice get against a team that has more problems than even the Texans do. The early line (Texans -3.5) has held firm and doesn’t seem likely to move.

Game to wait on

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-6)

This game will give everyone a pretty good idea if the Falcons are playing with fool’s gold. So far, so good, with the Falcons pummeling teams for the last month after getting ambushed by the Bucs on opening day. Over the last two weeks Atlanta has defeated both of last season’s Super Bowl teams, scoring 48 on the Panthers and defeating the Broncos in Denver in a game that was not as close as the final (23-16) margin.

Importantly to bettors, the Falcons are 4-1 ATS, thanks to rejuvenated QB Matt Ryan – who is by far the league’s top-rated passer and over just five games has 177 more passing yards than the No. 2 passer (Andy Dalton). A win at Seattle would propel the Falcons into the upper tier of contenders, and bettors like the 6 they’re getting so much that the number might melt to 5.5.

Total to watch

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (45.5)

Things are slipping away from the snake-bitten Chargers, who can’t seem to close the deal. They’ve lost four close games (Kansas City, New Orleans, New Orleans and Oakland). The O/U line on SD games this year has averaged 50, and the Chargers have covered that number four times. The problem is that Denver is breaking in another new QB (Paxton Lynch), who will be playing just his third game.

If you think that the Chargers’ 8th-ranked offense will be able to move the ball against the Broncos’ 6th-ranked defense, an over play should be considered. Key factor here is that the game will be in San Diego, where the Chargers tend to score a lot.
 
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Thursday's Top Action

NFL Week 5 Thursday Night Football Betting Preview
Denver Broncos (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) at San Diego Chargers (1-4 SU, 3-2 ATS)

We've already reached Week 6 in the NFL and that means that we will see much more divisional action as teams try to separate themselves.

The card begins with an AFC West showdown as the snake-bitten San Diego Chargers try to finally close out a game strong against the division-leading Denver Broncos.

Odds: Denver (-3.5); Total set at 45.5

San Diego enters this week with a 1-4 SU record but they could very easily be 4-1 or even 5-0 SU right now.

The Chargers choked away a 21-point lead to lose in OT Week 1, gave up a game-winning TD in the final 90 seconds to the Colts in Week 3, choked away a 14-point lead with six minutes left vs. New Orleans, and missed a game-tying FG in the final minutes last week because of a botched snap.

They've lost three in a row by a combined eight points and you know that frustrating has to be at an all-time high in that San Diego locker room right now.

Denver suffered their first loss of the year last week as the Paxton Lynch era in Mile High might have officially begun. Lynch didn't look completely ready for the starters role in the 23-16 home loss to Atlanta, and reports indicate that he'll be back in the backup role this week as Trevor Siemian will return to face the Chargers.

That's got to be good news for Broncos fans this week, but San Diego has always played them tough regardless of who was playing QB and with the point spread hovering around a field goal, we could see another tight Chargers game this week.

Teams coming off their first loss after starting the season 3-0 SU or better can be a scary wager because there's always that unanswered question of how they'll react to a defeat. Being the defending Super Bowl champions you should expect the Broncos to handle it just fine, but going on the road in a short week to face a division rival that's desperate to get a win and close out a game well doesn't do them any favors.

In fact, as we get closer to kick-off, I expect many recreational NFL bettors to simply look at the standings, remember that Denver are the champs and have a great defense and have no problem laying the small number on the road.

However, as I discussed earlier, the Chargers have found ways to be in every game they've played this year and have then found different ways to blow it.

It's only a matter of time for teams like that to finally put it all together for the full 60 minutes, and knocking off the defending champs that are actually a division rival could be that jumpstart the Chargers need right now.

San Diego's offense ranks 8th in the NFL right now with 373.2 yards per game and although they'll be in tough against the Broncos defense, the fact that the Chargers are 2nd in the NFL in points per game (30.4), does bode well for them here.

Last week, Atlanta became the first team to score more than 20 points against Denver and there is no doubt that the Chargers coaching staff have been reviewing that film to see what they can implement into their own gameplan.

As an organization, San Diego has lost the last five meetings with the Broncos and have to view this game as a good of a chance as any to snap that streak. There is no more Peyton Manning to deal with, it's a home game, and they'll be up against a rookie QB who is coming back from injury. Getting points in a spot like that has to be intriguing to bettors.

But when you see that San Diego is on a 5-0 ATS run in division games, a 7-1 ATS run when coming off a loss, and a 4-0 ATS run after allowing 30+ points, grabbing the points here, becomes the only play.

Best Bet: Take San Diego +3.5
 
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Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Broncos at Chargers

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+3, 45.5)

Thursday's nationally televised contest pitting the reigning Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos against the San Diego Chargers would hold even more water had the latter followed up the first 58 minutes of their games by avoiding being doused over the final two. After seeing three leads evaporate after the two-minute warning, the snake-bitten Chargers look to snap a 10-game skid versus AFC West rivals on Thursday when they host the Broncos.

"You can't make this stuff up," quarterback Philip Rivers said after San Diego was felled by a botch hold on a game-tying attempted field goal in a 34-31 setback to Oakland on Sunday. "You think, 'Is there any other way we can find a way to do this?' " The path to right the ship will be tough versus Denver, which has won nine of the last 10 encounters between the clubs and is seething after absorbing its first loss of the season with a 23-16 setback to Atlanta. Quarterback Trevor Siemian (shoulder) is expected to be at the helm Thursday after sitting out versus the Falcons, but special teams coordinator Joe DeCamillis will serve as interim coach with Gary Kubiak being diagnosed with a complex migraine condition.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Broncos opened the betting week for this Thursday night contest as 2.5-point road favorites but were bet up to 3-point faves on Monday afternoon - which is where they sit now. The total opened at 45.5 and hasn't moved all week.

POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (-2.5) - Chargers (+3) + home field (-3) = Broncos -2.5

INJURY REPORT:

Broncos - S J. Simmons (Prob Thurs, wrist), T D. Stephenson (Prob Thurs, calf), TE V. Green (Prob Thurs, calf), QB T. Siemian (Prob Thurs, shoulder), CB K. Webster (Ques Thurs, hamstring), LB D. Ware (Late Oct, elbow), DE V. Walker (I-R, knee), C S. Brenner (I-R, concussion).

Chargers - P D. Kaser (Prob Thurs, hip), G O. Franklin (Ques Thurs, knee), LB D. Perryman (Ques Thurs, shoulder), T J. Barksdale (Ques Thurs, foot), T K. Dunlap (Ques Thurs, undisclosed), G C. Hairston (Ques Thurs, groin), RB D. McCluster (Ques Thurs, hamstring), CB C. Mager (Ques Thurs, shoulder), CB B. Flowers (Out Thurs, concussion), CB J. Verrett (Out For Season, knee), S J. Addae (Late Oct, collarbone), LB N. Czubnar (I-R, knee), LB M. Te'o (I-R, achilles), RB D. Woodhead (I-R, knee), WR K. Allen (I-R, knee), WR J. Herndon (I-R, knee), DT Z. Carlis (I-R, knee), T T. Johnstone (I-R, undisclosed), RB B. Oliver (I-R, achilles), G D. Clark (I-R, knee), C C. Watt (Elig Week 7, knee), LB T. Marcordes (I-R, undisclosed), TE J. Cumberland (I-R, achilles), DT C. Wray (I-R, foot), NT S. Lissemore (I-R, shoulder), WR S. Johnson (I-R, knee).

WEATHER REPORT: This may come as a huge surprise...but it's expected to be sunny with a zero percent chance of precipitation on Thursday evening in San Diego. Temperatures will be in the mid-70's with humidity values hovering around 75 percent.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS, 3-2 O/U): Although the quarterback situation has been answered for Thursday, Denver still has many questions regarding its running game after it failed to exploit the Falcons' 30th-ranked defense. C.J. Anderson has been unable to top 50 yards rushing in any of the last three games and mustered just three carries longer than four yards last week heading into a clash with the league's eighth-best rushing defense (83.4 yards per contest). Demaryius Thomas has found the end zone in each of his last three games overall and had a touchdown reception in each of his last three meetings with San Diego.

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (1-4 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-1 O/U): Rivers (NFL fourth-best 1,469 yards) is at the controls of the league's second-ranked offense (30.4 points) and recorded his second four-touchdown performance of the season on Sunday, but four turnovers proved too much to overcome. Former first-round selection Melvin Gordon has struggled to find the handle on the ball, fumbling for the second time in as many weeks on Sunday and eighth time in 19 career games. "(Gordon) can't put the ball on the ground," coach Mike McCoy said via the San Diego Union-Tribune. "(His) fumbles won't affect his usage now. He's our back, and he's going to get going." The 23-year-old Gordon had trouble getting going in his previous encounter with Denver, fumbling twice while being held to 55 yards in a 17-3 setback on Dec. 6.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 Thursday games.
* Chargers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.
* Chargers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games.
* Over is 6-0 in Broncos last 6 games in Week 6.
* Under is 8-1 in Chargers last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in San Diego.

CONSENSUS: The public is backing the Broncos with 64 percent of the picks on the road favorites. Over is leading the way in totals wagers with 57 percent of the selections.
 
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TNF - Broncos at Chargers
By Tony Mejia

Denver (-3, 45) at San Diego, 8:25 pm ET, CBS/NFLN

From Sept. of 2012 until last November, the Broncos never lost consecutive games. Peyton Manning’s longest losing streak on the team he retired a champion with was just that, two games. Brock Osweiler dropped back-to-back games in December, which might explain why team president John Elway was so hesitant to break him off in order to keep him.
Denver’s perfect run ended last week when rookie Paxton Lynch struggled in place of Trevor Siemian, but he’s expected to start against San Diego. Officially listed as ‘questionable,’ Siemian’s availability may not officially be known until right before kickoff, but all signs point to him having overcome his shoulder injury enough to open under center.

Lynch had a strong performance in closing out the Bucs when Siemian first went down, but his first start was rough. The Falcons put the Broncos in an early hole and capitalized on their edge, forcing checkdowns in addition to two Lynch fumbles and an interception. Although the rookie still took enough snaps at practice to be ready for what would be his first road start, Denver wants old reliable, Siemian, out there as long as there’s no threat he’ll hurt himself any worse.
It’s taken all of four starts, plus Lynch’s bad one, for the 24-year-old to become the undisputable No. 1 quarterback for the defending champs. Each of his starts got progressively better until he was injured in Tampa. He was 5-for-7 and had already thrown for a score, one week after he burned the Bengals for four. Siemian has thrown 57 passes without being intercepted and has quickly earned the trust of head coach Gary Kubiak, which is another reason you’ll likely see him out there.
Kubiak fell ill after Sunday’s home loss to Atlanta, landing in the hospital with what is being diagnosed as a “complex migraine.” Although he’s been released, Kubiak didn’t accompany the Broncos to San Diego, so the team has dedicated this game to him. Special teams coordinator Joe DeCamillis will serve as the interim head coach while defensive coordinator Wade Phillips and offensive coordinator Rick Dennison will run their collective units, so Kubiak’s absence shouldn’t be too large a factor, but that’s why having Siemian out there is so important.
“I’d be lying to you if I said it wasn’t an adjustment for us,” Siemian told the Denver Post. “We missed him for sure, but I think everybody’s trying to do their best to pick up the slack, coaches and players included. That’s what we’re trying to do. It’s not the same without him here.”
For the host Chargers, this Thursday night showcase offers one final opportunity to save their season. San Diego has dropped four of five games, suffering each of their setbacks despite enjoying a second-half league. The Bolts defense hasn’t been able to get stops when they’ve needed to and the offense has turned it over in critical spots.
Incredibly, San Diego has scored more points than any NFL team except Atlanta and has collectively outscored opponents 152-142, but winning has eluded it in excruciating fashion. Philip Rivers has been visibly frustrated enough to yell at teammates on the field and the sidelines, emotions spilling over. The front office was mad enough about kicker Josh Lambo laughing it up with Sebastian Janikowski after Sunday’s 34-31 loss that they asked him to apologize to teammates so that those who got the wrong idea about it wouldn’t harbor animosity.
The entire Chargers organization is currently wound tighter than an entire waiting room at your local chiropractor, so this could indeed be Mike McCoy’s last game. Considering they hit the road after this one and won’t be back for another game at Qualcomm until Nov. 6, we could be seeing a drastically different group in a few weeks depending on what goes down on Thursday night.

Denver Broncos
Season win total: 9.5 (Over +130, Under -150)
Odds to win AFC West: 3/2 to 5/7
Odds to win AFC: 9/1 to 6/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 20/1 to 12/1

San Diego Chargers
Season win total: 7 (Over -185, Under +165)
Odds to win AFC West: 8/1 to 60/1
Odds to win AFC: 25/1 to 50/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 50/1 to 100/1

LINE MOVEMENT

Because the Broncos QB situation was such an unknown entering this season, you can see that these figures from the WestgateLV SuperBook continue to be tweaked to avoid losses. The preseason win total for Denver now looks to be a little light, but AFC West, AFC and Super Bowl futures that are adjusted weekly have been. Meanwhile, if you've got blind faith that the Chargers are going to turn things around, the odds have never been better to try and buy yourself an island by backing a resurgence no one else sees coming. As far as this matchup is concerned, most books set the opening number at Broncos -3, though the WestgateLV SuperBook briefly had it available at -2.5. Currently, Denver is -3 at most books with a number of 3.5s out there. The total appears to have settled at 45 after opening at 46 at some spots. 45.5 is out there as well.

INJURY CONCERNS

Demariyus Thomas (hip) has been fighting through pain, but has been targeted seven times in each of the last four contests, making 22 catches. He was contained to just 49 yards against Atlanta, catching a touchdown but finishing with a season-low 9.8 yards per reception, so we'll see if that dip in production is tied to Lynch or discomfort after this one. Howerver, he's not listed on Denver's injury report, which outside of Siemian, looks pretty clean. Standout LB DeMarcus Ware remains out with a forearm injury, while special teams captain Kayvon Webster (hamstring) is also questionable.
San Diego is far more banged up, listing right tackle Joe Barksdale (foot) and left guard Orlando Franklin as 'questionable.' Backup tackle Chris Hairston (groin) is also listed, so the Chargers could be really thin up front. Defensively, LB Denzel Perryman (shoulder) is 'questionable' after missing the Oakland loss, while CB Brandon Flowers will miss his third straight game due to a concussion. Fellow corner Craig Mager (shoulder) is questionable too. They've already lost Jason Verrett and LB Manti Te'o for the season off the defense in addition to top WR Keenan Allen, RB Danny Woodhead and guard Chris Watt for the season.

BIG NIGHT FOR BOLTS BACKS?

After Falcons backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman diced the Broncos defense for 286 yards on Sunday, every team on their schedule figures to feature backs making plays out of the backfield to try and keep the pass rush off balance and isolate playmakers on linebackers as opposed to challenging an elite secondary. San Diego has featured Melvin Gordon even more since losing Woodhead in Week 2, but really doesn’t have a dependable second back between small-ish veteran Dexter McCluster and rookie Kenneth Farrow. They’ll have to improvise with Rivers working the ball around to his receivers and tight ends, so don’t expect similar results.
“It’s just not going to happen week in and week out,” star LB Von Miller told Denver reporters. It was something they got us on Sunday. It was that Sunday. That was one day out of the month. One game.”
Denver hadn't surrendered more than 20 points in a game since Week 15 of last season, which includes last year's Super Bowl run, a span of nine games. They haven't given up more than 21 points to the Chargers since Nov. 2012, a span of six games. That makes the total point prop listed below an eyebrow-raiser.

RECENT MEETINGS (Denver 5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS last five; UNDER 3-2)

1/3/16 Denver 27-20 vs. San Diego (DEN -10, 42)
12/6/15 Denver 17-3 at San Diego (DEN -5.5, 44.5)
12/14/14 Denver 22-10 at San Diego (DEN -4.5, 49)
10/23/14 Denver 35-21 vs. San Diego (DEN -9.5, 50.5)
1/12/14 Denver 24-17 vs. San Diego (DEN -7.5, 54.5)

PROPS

Of the props available below at the WestgateLV Superbook, I'd ride that Siemian TD prop going over. The Chargers have surrendered nine passing touchdowns, allowing four of the five QBs they've faced to throw for multiple TDs.

Trevor Siemian completions 21.5: (-110 o/u)
Melvin Gordon TD: (+120 yes/-140 under)
Philip Rivers passing yards 258.5: (-110 o/u)
Demariyus Thomas receiving yards 77.5: (-110 o/u)
Trevor Siemian TD passes 1.5: (-110 o/u)
Philip Rivers TD Passes 1.5: (EVEN over, -120 under)
Total combined sacks 5.5: (+105 over, -125 under)
First score of game will be: (-155 TD, +135 other)
Total points: Broncos 24.5, Chargers 21.5 (EVEN/-110 over, -120/-110 under)

BRONCOS AS A ROAD FAVORITE

The Broncos are 1-0 in this situation this season, covering easily at the Bucs with a 27-7 win as 3.5-point favorites. They were 5-1 in 2015, but covered just three of those games (3-2-1 ATS). Included in those results is a 17-3 win at Qualcomm last Dec. 6.

CHARGERS AS A HOME UNDERDOG

The Chargers will be a home favorite for the first time this season and were atrocious in this role in ’15. In addition to the 17-3 loss to Denver, they fell at home to Kansas City 33-3. San Diego has lost its last four games as a home ‘dog, with two of those losses coming at the hands of the Broncos. Its last win came against Seattle on Sept. 14, 2014.

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 7 has the Chargers as a 5.5-point underdog as they head south to face Atlanta. Denver is back in prime time, hosting Houston on Monday night as they reunite with Osweiler. The Broncos are 6.5-point favorites.
 
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Preview: Broncos (4-1) at Chargers (1-4)

Date: October 13, 2016 8:25 PM EDT

The Denver Broncos head to the West Coast on a short week to play AFC West rival San Diego Chargers on Thursday Night Football. The Broncos are coming off their first loss of the season, to the Atlanta Falcons, 23-16. Denver is also dealing with the temporary loss of their Super Bowl-winning head coach Gary Kubiak. The Broncos head coach will not make the trip to San Diego after suffering a complex migraine.

"Gary is going to concentrate on Gary this week. Everybody else will concentrate on getting a win down in San Diego," said general manager John Elway.

Special teams coordinator Joe DeCamillis is serving as the interim head coach as the Broncos prepare for the Chargers. DeCamillis is involved in week-to-week game management and this was the reason he was tabbed the coach instead of former NFL head coach Wade Phillips, the Broncos' defensive coordinator.

How much actual preparation will be needed to face San Diego is a different story. The Chargers have had four nail-biting losses this season and are coming off another close loss to the Oakland Raiders in Week 5, 34-31. The Chargers had a chance to tie the game on a field goal late in the fourth quarter, but holder Drew Kaser fumbled the snap and the kick did not get attempted.

"You can't make this stuff up. You think, 'Really, is there any other way we can find a way to (lose?),'" said Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers after the loss on Sunday.

San Diego has lost four out of the last five games. The Chargers have lost 10 straight to an AFC West opponent and hope to avoid making the streak 11 this Thursday.

Chargers head coach Mike McCoy appears to be on the hot seat as the Chargers have struggled most of 2015 and now into 2016. The offense, behind Rivers, still continues to put up huge numbers. But the 11 offensive turnovers have killed drives and put the defense on short fields.

The Chargers have eight lost fumbles on the season. One of the major culprits of those fumbles is second-year running back Melvin Gordon. The former first-rounder out of Wisconsin had a fumble in the Week 4 loss to the New Orleans Saints and another against the Raiders.

"I was conscious about it, and I don't even think a defender hit it. I have to go watch it. Walking off, I was so upset. We were driving it. I was getting into a zone. And then, it just came out," said Gordon of his turnover.

The Broncos' defense will attack Gordon all game long and test his ball security. That defense, led by outside linebacker Von Miller, has recovered four fumbles this season and will be looking for more on Thursday night. Miller and Co. will also be hunting for sacks. The Denver defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks 19 times this season.

The Chargers' offensive line, which could be without starting right tackle Joe Barksdale again this week due to a foot injury, has given up only 11 sacks. This unit has played better than it did in 2015 when it gave up 40 sacks for the season. Seven of those sacks came against the Broncos in 2015. How the line handles Denver's defensive front will go a long way in determining the outcome.

Against Denver in Week 5, the Falcons used their running backs as wide receivers and spread them out along the offensive formations. This forced inside linebackers Brandon Marshall and Todd Davis to leave the tackle box and play man coverage on the edges. Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan took advantage of these matchups and the game plan helped hand the Broncos their first loss of the year.

"(Atlanta) spread us out. The key part was that they had time to get those guys downfield. For backs to get downfield, it takes some time. You can't ask (Marshall) and Todd and those guys to hold up that long," said Kubiak.

While McCoy may try to implement this scheme into the game plan, the loss of a great pass catcher like Chargers running back Danny Woodhead, who is out for the season, may prevent the Chargers' offense from using this attack as much as it might like.

The Broncos' offensive line gave up six sacks in the loss to the Falcons, and no matter who is at quarterback, rookie Paxton Lynch or, if healthy, Trevor Siemian, that is too many hits for a quarterback to take. Especially with a healthy Joey Bosa lining up along the defensive line for the Chargers. The third overall selection in the 2016 draft played in his first NFL game against the Raiders and exploded onto the scene. The rookie collected two sacks and five total tackles in his debut.
 
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TNF - Broncos at Chargers
By Tony Mejia

Denver (-3, 45) at San Diego, 8:25 pm ET, CBS/NFLN

From Sept. of 2012 until last November, the Broncos never lost consecutive games. Peyton Manning’s longest losing streak on the team he retired a champion with was just that, two games. Brock Osweiler dropped back-to-back games in December, which might explain why team president John Elway was so hesitant to break him off in order to keep him.
Denver’s perfect run ended last week when rookie Paxton Lynch struggled in place of Trevor Siemian, but he’s expected to start against San Diego. Officially listed as ‘questionable,’ Siemian’s availability may not officially be known until right before kickoff, but all signs point to him having overcome his shoulder injury enough to open under center.

Lynch had a strong performance in closing out the Bucs when Siemian first went down, but his first start was rough. The Falcons put the Broncos in an early hole and capitalized on their edge, forcing checkdowns in addition to two Lynch fumbles and an interception. Although the rookie still took enough snaps at practice to be ready for what would be his first road start, Denver wants old reliable, Siemian, out there as long as there’s no threat he’ll hurt himself any worse.
It’s taken all of four starts, plus Lynch’s bad one, for the 24-year-old to become the undisputable No. 1 quarterback for the defending champs. Each of his starts got progressively better until he was injured in Tampa. He was 5-for-7 and had already thrown for a score, one week after he burned the Bengals for four. Siemian has thrown 57 passes without being intercepted and has quickly earned the trust of head coach Gary Kubiak, which is another reason you’ll likely see him out there.
Kubiak fell ill after Sunday’s home loss to Atlanta, landing in the hospital with what is being diagnosed as a “complex migraine.” Although he’s been released, Kubiak didn’t accompany the Broncos to San Diego, so the team has dedicated this game to him. Special teams coordinator Joe DeCamillis will serve as the interim head coach while defensive coordinator Wade Phillips and offensive coordinator Rick Dennison will run their collective units, so Kubiak’s absence shouldn’t be too large a factor, but that’s why having Siemian out there is so important.
“I’d be lying to you if I said it wasn’t an adjustment for us,” Siemian told the Denver Post. “We missed him for sure, but I think everybody’s trying to do their best to pick up the slack, coaches and players included. That’s what we’re trying to do. It’s not the same without him here.”
For the host Chargers, this Thursday night showcase offers one final opportunity to save their season. San Diego has dropped four of five games, suffering each of their setbacks despite enjoying a second-half league. The Bolts defense hasn’t been able to get stops when they’ve needed to and the offense has turned it over in critical spots.
Incredibly, San Diego has scored more points than any NFL team except Atlanta and has collectively outscored opponents 152-142, but winning has eluded it in excruciating fashion. Philip Rivers has been visibly frustrated enough to yell at teammates on the field and the sidelines, emotions spilling over. The front office was mad enough about kicker Josh Lambo laughing it up with Sebastian Janikowski after Sunday’s 34-31 loss that they asked him to apologize to teammates so that those who got the wrong idea about it wouldn’t harbor animosity.
The entire Chargers organization is currently wound tighter than an entire waiting room at your local chiropractor, so this could indeed be Mike McCoy’s last game. Considering they hit the road after this one and won’t be back for another game at Qualcomm until Nov. 6, we could be seeing a drastically different group in a few weeks depending on what goes down on Thursday night.

Denver Broncos
Season win total: 9.5 (Over +130, Under -150)
Odds to win AFC West: 3/2 to 5/7
Odds to win AFC: 9/1 to 6/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 20/1 to 12/1

San Diego Chargers
Season win total: 7 (Over -185, Under +165)
Odds to win AFC West: 8/1 to 60/1
Odds to win AFC: 25/1 to 50/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 50/1 to 100/1

LINE MOVEMENT

Because the Broncos QB situation was such an unknown entering this season, you can see that these figures from the WestgateLV SuperBook continue to be tweaked to avoid losses. The preseason win total for Denver now looks to be a little light, but AFC West, AFC and Super Bowl futures that are adjusted weekly have been. Meanwhile, if you've got blind faith that the Chargers are going to turn things around, the odds have never been better to try and buy yourself an island by backing a resurgence no one else sees coming. As far as this matchup is concerned, most books set the opening number at Broncos -3, though the WestgateLV SuperBook briefly had it available at -2.5. Currently, Denver is -3 at most books with a number of 3.5s out there. The total appears to have settled at 45 after opening at 46 at some spots. 45.5 is out there as well.

INJURY CONCERNS

Demariyus Thomas (hip) has been fighting through pain, but has been targeted seven times in each of the last four contests, making 22 catches. He was contained to just 49 yards against Atlanta, catching a touchdown but finishing with a season-low 9.8 yards per reception, so we'll see if that dip in production is tied to Lynch or discomfort after this one. Howerver, he's not listed on Denver's injury report, which outside of Siemian, looks pretty clean. Standout LB DeMarcus Ware remains out with a forearm injury, while special teams captain Kayvon Webster (hamstring) is also questionable.
San Diego is far more banged up, listing right tackle Joe Barksdale (foot) and left guard Orlando Franklin as 'questionable.' Backup tackle Chris Hairston (groin) is also listed, so the Chargers could be really thin up front. Defensively, LB Denzel Perryman (shoulder) is 'questionable' after missing the Oakland loss, while CB Brandon Flowers will miss his third straight game due to a concussion. Fellow corner Craig Mager (shoulder) is questionable too. They've already lost Jason Verrett and LB Manti Te'o for the season off the defense in addition to top WR Keenan Allen, RB Danny Woodhead and guard Chris Watt for the season.

BIG NIGHT FOR BOLTS BACKS?

After Falcons backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman diced the Broncos defense for 286 yards on Sunday, every team on their schedule figures to feature backs making plays out of the backfield to try and keep the pass rush off balance and isolate playmakers on linebackers as opposed to challenging an elite secondary. San Diego has featured Melvin Gordon even more since losing Woodhead in Week 2, but really doesn’t have a dependable second back between small-ish veteran Dexter McCluster and rookie Kenneth Farrow. They’ll have to improvise with Rivers working the ball around to his receivers and tight ends, so don’t expect similar results.
“It’s just not going to happen week in and week out,” star LB Von Miller told Denver reporters. It was something they got us on Sunday. It was that Sunday. That was one day out of the month. One game.”
Denver hadn't surrendered more than 20 points in a game since Week 15 of last season, which includes last year's Super Bowl run, a span of nine games. They haven't given up more than 21 points to the Chargers since Nov. 2012, a span of six games. That makes the total point prop listed below an eyebrow-raiser.

RECENT MEETINGS (Denver 5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS last five; UNDER 3-2)

1/3/16 Denver 27-20 vs. San Diego (DEN -10, 42)
12/6/15 Denver 17-3 at San Diego (DEN -5.5, 44.5)
12/14/14 Denver 22-10 at San Diego (DEN -4.5, 49)
10/23/14 Denver 35-21 vs. San Diego (DEN -9.5, 50.5)
1/12/14 Denver 24-17 vs. San Diego (DEN -7.5, 54.5)

PROPS

Of the props available below at the WestgateLV Superbook, I'd ride that Siemian TD prop going over. The Chargers have surrendered nine passing touchdowns, allowing four of the five QBs they've faced to throw for multiple TDs.

Trevor Siemian completions 21.5: (-110 o/u)
Melvin Gordon TD: (+120 yes/-140 under)
Philip Rivers passing yards 258.5: (-110 o/u)
Demariyus Thomas receiving yards 77.5: (-110 o/u)
Trevor Siemian TD passes 1.5: (-110 o/u)
Philip Rivers TD Passes 1.5: (EVEN over, -120 under)
Total combined sacks 5.5: (+105 over, -125 under)
First score of game will be: (-155 TD, +135 other)
Total points: Broncos 24.5, Chargers 21.5 (EVEN/-110 over, -120/-110 under)

BRONCOS AS A ROAD FAVORITE

The Broncos are 1-0 in this situation this season, covering easily at the Bucs with a 27-7 win as 3.5-point favorites. They were 5-1 in 2015, but covered just three of those games (3-2-1 ATS). Included in those results is a 17-3 win at Qualcomm last Dec. 6.

CHARGERS AS A HOME UNDERDOG

The Chargers will be a home favorite for the first time this season and were atrocious in this role in ’15. In addition to the 17-3 loss to Denver, they fell at home to Kansas City 33-3. San Diego has lost its last four games as a home ‘dog, with two of those losses coming at the hands of the Broncos. Its last win came against Seattle on Sept. 14, 2014.

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 7 has the Chargers as a 5.5-point underdog as they head south to face Atlanta. Denver is back in prime time, hosting Houston on Monday night as they reunite with Osweiler. The Broncos are 6.5-point favorites.
 
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'Thursday Night Football'

Week Six of the NFL season kicks off with the defending Super Bowl champions looking to rebound from their first blemish. Broncos offense struggling to find its rhythm with rookie QB Lynch and ground game at a stand still lost 23-16 as -3.5 point home chalk to visiting Falcons. Meanwhile, San Diego Chargers lost its third straight, this time blowing a 17-9 third-quarter lead eventually falling 34-31 to the Raiders but did grab the loot as +3.5 point road underdogs.

Chargers saddled with 3-12 mark against the betting line in front of the home audience won't instill much confidence among bettors. Additionally, Bolts have a well documented poor record against the spread at home hosting a division rivals. They're on a 0-7 ATS skid, 1-9 ATS slide and 2-13 ATS stretch the past fifteen.

On the other side, sports bettors are well aware of success Denver has had in this situation. The Broncos are an eye-popping 10-0 ATS on the road vs a division opponent, 14-1 ATS last fifteen as a division visitor. Broncos have also made their mark in Chargers back-yard recently posting a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS record. One final betting nuggets, Broncos have enjoyed Thursday Night Football going 8-1 SU/ATS last nine under the bright light's.

Broncos opened -2.5-point road favorite but with Siemian expected to return for Thursday Night Football odds have ticked-up to -3.0 and could inch higher.
 
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Week 6 NFL

Broncos (4-1) @ Chargers (1-4)— Denver coach Kubiak (migraines) is out for this game, which is bigger problem than usual since he calls plays; QB Siemian is expected back after missing a game. Broncos won nine of last ten series games, winning last five in row, all by 7+ points- they’ve won their last five visits here. San Diego is 1-4 despite scoring 30.4 pts/game; all four of their losses are by 4 or less points or in OT. Chargers turned ball over 10 times in last three games; five of last six TDs they allowed were on drives of less than 50 yards. Denver is 5-1-1 in last seven games as a road favorite; last 8+ years, San Diego is 5-9 as a home dog. Over is 4-1 in Charger games, 3-2 in Denver games. Chargers are allowing 20.6 second half pts/game.
 
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Week 6 NFL

Broncos (4-1) @ Chargers (1-4)— Denver coach Kubiak (migraines) is out for this game, which is bigger problem than usual since he calls plays; QB Siemian is expected back after missing a game. Broncos won nine of last ten series games, winning last five in row, all by 7+ points- they’ve won their last five visits here. San Diego is 1-4 despite scoring 30.4 pts/game; all four of their losses are by 4 or less points or in OT. Chargers turned ball over 10 times in last three games; five of last six TDs they allowed were on drives of less than 50 yards. Denver is 5-1-1 in last seven games as a road favorite; last 8+ years, San Diego is 5-9 as a home dog. Over is 4-1 in Charger games, 3-2 in Denver games. Chargers are allowing 20.6 second half pts/game.
 
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Tech Trends - Week 6
By Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Oct. 13

DENVER at SAN DIEGO (CBS/NFL Network, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Denver has won and covered five straight at Qualcomm and is 8-1 SU, 7-2 vs. line last nine reg season meetings . Denver an astounding 15-0 SU and vs. spread as AFC West visitor since 2011. Broncos 5-1-1 as road chalk since LY. Bolts 3-12 vs. spread last 15 as host. Bolts just 3-12 vs. spread last 15 at Qualcomm.
Tech Edge: Broncos, based on team and series trends.
 
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Free NFL Picks: Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers Odds & Expert Predictions
by Alan Matthews

So how much does a head coach contribute to his team's success on game day? Some NFL coaches are like CEOs as they delegate most everything to free themselves up to make big-picture calls during a game. Some do call plays.

I ask this because the Broncos (4-1) are going to be without head coach Gary Kubiak for Thursday night's AFC West matchup in San Diego, perhaps Denver's final game ever in its rival's city if the Chargers don't get approval for a new stadium next month. Kubiak was hospitalized following Sunday's home loss to Atlanta and was diagnosed with complex migraine condition. Can't say I've heard of that, but it doesn't sound fun. That condition has been linked to the potential for a stroke; Kubiak suffered a mini-stroke in 2013 while coach of the Texans. This current condition isn't considered life-threatening or anything, but he's going to simply rest this week. Special teams coach Joe DeCamillis will handle interim duties. I'm a bit surprised that he was the choice since defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is a former head coach. Broncos boss John Elway cited DeCamillis' work in game-management situations with Kubiak and analytics guru Mitch Tanney as a reason why DeCamillis gets the chance.

As for San Diego (1-4), I'm a tad surprised that Coach Mike McCoy is still employed. I'm not sure I've ever seen a team find more unique ways to lose late in the fourth quarter than the Bolts have this year. They truly could be 5-0. There's no way McCoy is back next year (or maybe even next week) unless San Diego runs the table.

Broncos at Chargers Betting Story Lines

Denver was upset at home by Atlanta 23-16 on Sunday to fall into a tie for first place in the AFC West with Oakland. The way that Falcons offense had been going, holding it to 23 points is pretty good. The Broncos shut down Julio Jones, he of the 300 yards receiving in Week 5. Jones had just two catches for 29 yards; last week in my Friday NFL news update story, I recommended going under the prop of Jones O/U 90 yards in the game. It was the first NFL start for first-round rookie Paxton Lynch under center for the Broncos. He was 23-for-35 for 223 yards with a TD and pick but was sacked six times. That was often a case of an inexperienced guy holding the ball too long. The Broncos weren't able to establish the run much with 84 yards on 24 carries. They have struggled to run the ball the past three games with right tackle Donald Stephenson and blocking tight end Virgil Green missing them due to injury (Green might return Thursday). The Falcons came into the game ranked 30th in total defense and 29th in scoring defense.

Lynch was the fifth rookie QB to start in the NFL this year. That is tied with 2012 for the most rookie quarterbacks to start a game in the first five weeks of a season in the past 25 years. That was the Andrew Luck/Robert Griffin III/Ryan Tannehill draft four years ago. Normal starting QB Trevor Siemian was inactive for the Falcons game with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder, but the team thinks he will be ready to start Thursday. Lynch didn't look ready for the NFL on Sunday.

San Diego lost 34-31 in Oakland on Sunday and has lost its four games by a combined 14 points, shooting itself in the foot each time (this trend began last year). This time the Bolts blew a 24-16 third-quarter lead. San Diego had a 3rd-and-2 at the Oakland 19 with about three minutes left but Melvin Gordon was stopped a yard shy of a first down. McCoy opted to try for the tying field goal, but the holder Drew Kaser simply dropped the snap as it was perfect.

"Discouraging probably isn't strong enough," Philip Rivers said after. "I don't know if there are many more ways left to find a way to lose…. I mean, you can't make this stuff up."

Rivers had another big game with 359 yards passing and four scores, all to different players, but it wasn't enough to prevent a 10th straight AFC West loss, trying an unwanted franchise record. The Bolts turned it over four times and had three more fumbles they were fortunate to recover. In a minor upset, the team didn't release the rookie Kaser on Monday. He also serves as the team's punter but may not be the holder any longer.

There was one huge bright side to Sunday's loss and that was the NFL debut of No. 3 overall pick Joey Bosa. The defensive end from Ohio State had two sacks, two quarterback hurries and five combined tackles -- including three tackles for loss -- in 27 defensive snaps.

Broncos at Charges Betting Odds and Trends

Denver is a 3-point favorite (-120) with a total of 44.5. The Broncos are -170 on the moneyline and the Chargers +150 On the alternate lines, Denver is -3.5 (+105) and -2.5 (-145). The Broncos are 4-1 against the spread (2-0 on road) and 3-2 "over/under" (1-1 on road). San Diego is 3-2 ATS (1-1 at home) and 4-1 O/U (2-0 at home).

The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their past four on the road and 8-1 ATS in their past nine on Thursday. The Chargers are 3-12 ATS in their past 15 at home. The over is 4-1 in Denver's past five on Thursday. The over is 5-0 in San Diego's past five after a loss. The Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their past five trips to San Diego.

Broncos at Chargers Betting Prediction

I do think McCoy could be fired if the Chargers lose this game in embarrassing fashion. The team really couldn't make a change with the quick turnaround, but with a few extra days ahead of Week 7 it might. Offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt, the former Titans and Cardinals coach, could finish out the season. His group has been good.

San Diego was swept by Denver last year and has lost five straight in the series. The game in San Diego was by a 17-3 count in 2015. They also played Week 17 in Denver and Peyton Manning came off the Broncos bench to lead a come-from-behind 27-20 win in the final regular-season game of his career.

I'm going to assume Siemian is playing. Give the 2.5 and go over.
 
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PGA Tour Picks: Safeway Open Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
by Alan Matthews

It has been an interesting few weeks in golf since I last wrote, previewing the Tour Championship. Northern Ireland's Rory McIlroy won that tournament and the FedEx Cup to salvage what had been an otherwise disappointing season on the PGA Tour. I liked England's Paul Casey to win the tournament and the Cup; he finished fourth in Atlanta at 9-under.

And of course we had the very exciting Ryder Cup at Hazeltine in Minnesota, with the Americans taking back the Cup. The USA took a 4-0 lead after the opening session and really never looked back on the way to a 17-11 victory and won the Cup for the first time in eight years.

Normally, I wouldn't be too fired up about the start of the new PGA Tour season, which is this week at the Safeway Open at the Silverado Resort and Spa's North Course (owned in part by Hall of Famer Johnny Miller) in Napa, Calif. Most top players aren't playing after such a long season. But I was pretty excited about seeing Tiger Woods back in action. Last Friday, he officially committed to playing the tournament, his first event since the Wyndham Championship in August 2015. Sportsbooks have some really cool props I was going to examine.

And then on Monday, Woods pulled out. Here's what Tiger said on his website:

"After a lot of soul searching and honest reflection, I know that I am not yet ready to play on the PGA Tour or compete in Turkey. My health is good, and I feel strong, but my game is vulnerable and not where it needs to be. When I announced last week I was going to Safeway, I had every intention of playing, or I wouldn't have committed. I spent a week with the U.S. Ryder Cup Team, an honor and experience that inspired me even more to play. I practiced the last several days in California, but after a lot of hours, I knew I wasn't ready to compete against the best golfers in the world. I will continue to work hard, and plan to play at my foundation's event, the Hero World Challenge."

Tiger's buddy Notah Begay III told the Golf Channel that Tiger was concerned his game wasn't sharp enough to play competitively yet. Basically, Woods doesn't want to embarrass himself. Tiger's return was a boon for the tournament as ticket sales had doubled, but no one is getting a refund just because Tiger's out. He was set to play the pro-am with Warriors star Steph Curry then play alongside rival Phil Mickelson for the first two rounds at Silverado. Woods also planned to play the Nov. 3-6 Turkish Airlines Open, but that's obviously out. So we will have to wait until at least the Dec. 1-4 Hero World Challenge. At least Tiger is healthy, he just has to get his game there. He had been priced at +4000 to win.

The defending champion of this tournament is Argentina's Emiliano Grillo, who had a fine rookie season. It was called the Frys.com Open last year and Grillo became the fifth player in Tour history to win his rookie debut as he beat Kevin Na on the second playoff hole. Grillo had to drain a 25-foot putt on his 72nd hole to force extra holes, and he made a 3-footer on the first playoff hole to win. Grillo was to play with Tiger and Lefty the first two rounds this week.

Golf Odds: Safeway Open Favorites

Casey is the highest-ranked player in the field at No. 12 in the world, and he's the +1000 favorite. He wasn't worse than fourth in his final three PGA Tour events to close last season. Casey hasn't played this event since finishing 11th in 2011.

Matt Kuchar (+1200) and Phil Mickelson (+1400) are the only American Ryder Cuppers in the field. Kuchar closed last season with a T15 at the Tour Championship. He played this tournament in 2014 and was 21st. Lefty didn't manage a single Top 10 in the FedEx Cup playoffs and makes his debut at this course.

The favorites are rounded out by Justin Thomas (+2000) and John Rahm (+2200). Thomas was third here last year. Rahm is finally a full Tour member with no history at Silverado.

Golf Odds: Safeway Open Picks

For a Top 10, I like Casey (+120), Thomas (+225) and Na (+250). Go Casey (even) as top European and Geoff Ogilvy (+450) as top Aussie. Head-to-head, go Thomas (-125) over Rahm (-105), Grillo (-120) over Mickelson (-110), Casey (-125) over Kuchar (-105), and Keegan Bradley (-115) over David Hearn (-115).

I'm going with Na to win at +2500. He came so close last year, was third in 2013 and he's one of those guys who usually plays well in the weaker-field fall events. Na isn't a long driver but a good ball-striker and that's important at Silverado.
 
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At the Gate - Thursday
By Mike Dempsey

All 81 Breeders’ Cup Challenge races are now in the book and we are just 23 days away from the two-day betting extravaganza known as the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita on Nov. 4-5.

The last “Win and You’re In” race for the $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) was held last Saturday at Belmont Park where a field of five went in the $1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), a race that has produced seven Classic winners.

Trainer Bob Baffert wanted to avoid running into California Chrome in the Awesome Again (G1) and shipped Hoppertunity to the east coast and he got up for the win, earning a 104 Beyer Speed Figure in the process.

Despite the win he can still be had at generous odds of +3800 for the Classic, not even cracking the top 10 in the betting.

California Chrome, who is perfect in 2016 remains the heavy favorite for the Classic at +140. The up and coming three-year-old Arrogate is the second choice at +240.

The colt won the Travers Stakes (G1) in his last start and is training up to the Classic and is also trained by Baffert.

Three-year-olds have won the last two editions of the Classic and they were both trained by, you guessed it, Bob Baffert.

Bayern won a controversial running in 2014, wiping out the field at the break and taking the field gate to wire, returning $14.20 for the win.

Last year it was American Pharoah who took the field gate to wire, returning a paltry $3.40 and capping off an amazing year for the colt that included becoming the first Triple Crown winner in nearly four decades.

Baffert has a strong hand looking for a three peat. He also has Dortmund, but I have a hunch he may send him to the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1).

Top Ten for Breeders’ Cup Classic:
California Chrome +140
Arrogate +240
Frosted +900
Exaggerator +1600 (retired)
American Freedom +1800
Nyquist +1800
Beholder +2000 (going to Distaff)
Connect +2400
Dortmund +2400
Gun Runner +2400


Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 Md $40,000 (12:55 ET)
#3 Two Down One to Go 2-1
#9 Rapt 5-2
#4 Brooklyn Speights 7-2
#7 Posse's Moonbeam 8-1

Analysis: Two Down One to Go pressed the early pace and weakened to finish fourth last out when dropping back in for a $40,000 tag in his second start off the claim by the Asmussen barn. The barn took him for $40,000 out of a close up third here back in June. He was gelded since his last outing and he has a solid turf pedigree, by Kitten's Joy out of a E Dubai mare that that has dropped a pair of winners including one turf winner.

Rapt stalked the early pace and came with a good five wide run to finish in the runner up spot last out, beaten a half-length for the top spot. Two back in the slop he headed for some with a clear lead but got run down late and had to settle fort the runner up spot. He was eighth in his first two career starts, both versus state bred maiden special weight company and running into repeat winners.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 3,9 / 3,4,7,9
TRI: 3,9 / 3,4,7,9 / 3,4,5,7,9

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 8 Alw $62,000N1X (4:46 ET)
#6 Manipulated 4-1
#8 Fearthefalcon 7-2
#3 Go Go Lucky 5-1
#4 Worborthor 6-1

Analysis: Manipulated tries turf for the first time here for the Jerkens barn that is 11% winners moving runners from dirt to turf. This gelding won the state bred Rockville Centre in his debut and was in the mix in a couple of other stakes last year and put in a solid effort off the bench two back but last out faded to finish seventh on the stretch out to a mile on dirt. The blinkers go on this guy, who is out of the stakes winner Silver Knockers ($249,648) who has dropped one other foal to race, a turf winner.

Fearthefalcon just missed last out in a game effort at this condition going six furlongs on the turf here, beaten a nose. Two back this guy was fourth behind repeat winner Grand Sky, who came back to beat state bred Alw-2 optional claimers in his next outing here on Sept. 9. He has come up short at this condition four straight times but catches a field here he should be able to handle.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 6,8 / 3,4,6,8
TRI: 6,8 / 3,4,6,8 / 1,3,4,6,8

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R1: #7 Posse’s Moonbeam 8-1
R2: #8 Perfect Execution 10-1
R2: #4 Motown Sound 8-1
R3: #1 Modern Lady 12-1
R4: #1 Fabulous Kid 8-1
R5: #7 Outstanding Gio 8-1
R5: #6 Ecliptical Jack 8-1
R6: #8 Sweet Ella 10-1
R9: #2 Emiliana’s Hope 10-1
R9: #3 You Promise 8-1

Good luck today!
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Dayton Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Post: 6:15 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 77 - Purse:$4000 - N/W $1000 IN LAST 4 STARTS
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 6 HOUSE OF CASH 6/1
# 4 NUMBERS GAME 8/1
# 1 MY FRIEND JIM 3/1

HOUSE OF CASH will not be denied the triumph today. Can't overlook based on TrackMaster Speed Ratings which have been terrific (77 avg) recently. Good for a win play just off the amazing prior class statistics. Have to like this race horse. Any time a horse is sent to post with this driver-conditioner pair there's a good probability for some nice profits. NUMBERS GAME - The 4 slot sports an above average win figure at Dayton Raceway. Should be considered here if only for the really good speed figure achieved in the last race. MY FRIEND JIM - Horse players love to play the driver of this gelding - great win percentage of late.
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Harrah's Philadelphia

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Post: 3:00 - 1 1/4 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 92 - Purse:$14000 - NW $10,500 IN LAST 5 STARTS STARTERS IN A CLASS HIGHER THAN NW15000 OR A WINNER THIS CLASS IN LAST START INELIGIBLE PA PREFERENCE NO. 9 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 6 MARKET SHARE 7/2
# 1 VALLEY OF SIN 4/1
# 4 MY LOVE BI 3/1

The play in this race is MARKET SHARE. Been racing with some tougher customers of late, has a distinct class advantage. (Average Rating 93). Talk about a dynamic duo, Tetrick and Toscano have some of the best driver-trainer numbers at the track. Very high winning percentage makes this race horse an excellent pick to take home the dough. VALLEY OF SIN - Take a look at this race horse's average speed stat of 91 and compare to today's class rating. Looks like a very nice wager. Had one of the most compelling speed ratings of the race in his last contest. Must use in your wagers. MY LOVE BI - This harness racer looks strong. Check out the 91 average TrackMaster speed fig. Been going to post with some tougher customers of late, has a distinct class edge. (Average Rating 92).
 

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