David Malinsky
4* #711 WRIGHT STATE +10.5 over BUTLER
The Butler formula for success is a simple one. While recruiting big-time athletes to play their college ball at Hinkle Fieldhouse against this level of competition is difficult because of the lack of sex appeal, the program has focused on bringing in players with the best basketball skills. And you can win a lot of games with dribblers, passers and shooters, particularly in a savvy system. The key to handling the Bulldogs, then, is to understand that system, and have the defensive tenacity and patience to compete for the full shot clock on every possession. That is exactly what Brad Brownell and his Raiders bring to the table, and it means an intense evening at Hinkle tonight. As so often happens, Brownell struggled vs. the Butler playbook on the first look, an ugly 73-42 loss here in January of 2006. But then look at the turnaround ? Wright State has gone 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in the ensuing meetings beating the pointspread by 38 in the process, or 9.5 per game. We believe that we have more of the same in store tonight. Butler is off to a surprisingly strong start this season, with the chemistry blending quickly despite three freshmen in the starting lineup. But that lack of experience will show now that the Bulldogs are facing a defense that will test their patience, and a tenacious Raider ?D? that is allowing only 38.3 percent shooting will do just that. It is that defense that makes Brownell?s team such a ?tough out? in spots like this, and while that earlier 0-2 tour of the Wisconsin schools in early December ended a 9-0 ATS run as conference road underdogs, note that the Raiders were extremely short-handed in those games because of a slew of early injuries. Now they have had a chance to get most of their rotation back in order, which led to that solid pre-Christmas run through San Juan when they whipped Oral Roberts, South Florida and Murray State by a combined 46 points over three days, and in their return home they picked up a pair of Horizon wins last weekend. In senior point guard William Graham they have a savvy floor leader that will not be bothered by this environment, and with the possible return of Vaughn Duggins (he made the trip, and could be cleared for action if he feels good in pre-game warmups), there is an additional emotional spark. We will once again call for Wright to battle Butler tooth-and-nail to the final possession, making this pointspread a tall order at the slow pace that will be set.