Jeff Saad of Las Vegas Sports Services
1/1/2015: Thursday CFB Free Pick: Ohio State/Alabama under the total.
This is a high total for a team with one of the best defenses in the nation. Alabama is 4th in points allowed and faces a young Buckeye QB who has only 1 start under his belt -- their last game! The under is 5-1 in the Buckeyes last 6 games on turf. Bama is 5-2 under against the team with a winning record plus the under is 16-5 in the Crimson Tide's last 21 games on turf.
1/1/2015: Thursday CFB Free Pick: Ohio State/Alabama under the total.
This is a high total for a team with one of the best defenses in the nation. Alabama is 4th in points allowed and faces a young Buckeye QB who has only 1 start under his belt -- their last game! The under is 5-1 in the Buckeyes last 6 games on turf. Bama is 5-2 under against the team with a winning record plus the under is 16-5 in the Crimson Tide's last 21 games on turf.
Mr. Vegas
FREE PICK: Thursday, Jan 1: Florida State/Oregon.
Everyone is thinking this is going to be an uptempo offensive game with Mariota and Winston, but these defenses are good. The under is 5-0 in the Seminoles last 5 bowl games, while Oregon is 5-1 under in bowls.
Play Florida State/Oregon Under the total.
FREE PICK: Thursday, Jan 1: Florida State/Oregon.
Everyone is thinking this is going to be an uptempo offensive game with Mariota and Winston, but these defenses are good. The under is 5-0 in the Seminoles last 5 bowl games, while Oregon is 5-1 under in bowls.
Play Florida State/Oregon Under the total.
Jim Feist
Comp Pick for Thursday, January 1, 2015: 8:05 PM NBA
(503) SACRAMENTO KINGS VS (504) MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
Take: (504) MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
Reason: Your Bonus Play for Thursday, January 1, 2015 is in the NBA game between the Sacramento Kings and the Timberwolves in Minnesota. This is a tough situational spot for the Kings, a long way from home as well as the second of a back to back road spot. They were at Boston last night and this is the third of a four-game trip. The Kings have been money-burners for a while, on a 2-12-1 ATS run. Minnesota is home, rested and with an uptempo style behind young Shabazz Muhammad and Andrew Wiggins. They come off a close loss to Utah as Muhammad scored a career-best 30 points, including a jumper to lift the Timberwolves to a 92-84 lead with 4:22 to play. They will score on a Sacramento team that plays no defense, 26th in the NBA in points allowed. The Timberwolves are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Play Minnesota!
Comp Pick for Thursday, January 1, 2015: 8:05 PM NBA
(503) SACRAMENTO KINGS VS (504) MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
Take: (504) MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
Reason: Your Bonus Play for Thursday, January 1, 2015 is in the NBA game between the Sacramento Kings and the Timberwolves in Minnesota. This is a tough situational spot for the Kings, a long way from home as well as the second of a back to back road spot. They were at Boston last night and this is the third of a four-game trip. The Kings have been money-burners for a while, on a 2-12-1 ATS run. Minnesota is home, rested and with an uptempo style behind young Shabazz Muhammad and Andrew Wiggins. They come off a close loss to Utah as Muhammad scored a career-best 30 points, including a jumper to lift the Timberwolves to a 92-84 lead with 4:22 to play. They will score on a Sacramento team that plays no defense, 26th in the NBA in points allowed. The Timberwolves are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Play Minnesota!
Dave Price
Minnesota vs. Missouri
Bonus Play for 1/1 Minnesota +5
The Key: I think motivation could be a serious issue for Missouri, which had its sights set much higher than an unranked Minnesota team and the Citrus Bowl. The Tigers just played Alabama for an SEC title so this game doesn't do nearly as much to get the juices flowing. Minnesota, on the other hand, is excited about the opportunity to play a ranked team from the mighty SEC. It's a team on the rise under coach Jerry Kill, and its physicality up front poses problems for the Tigers. Minnesota has been a terrific investment at 17-8 ATS the last two seasons, including 10-2 ATS during this span when matched up against a team with a winning record. The Golden Gophers have been very competitive in bowl action too, losing by only four points and three points, respectively, the past two seasons. They'll be looking to break through here. Take the points.
Minnesota vs. Missouri
Bonus Play for 1/1 Minnesota +5
The Key: I think motivation could be a serious issue for Missouri, which had its sights set much higher than an unranked Minnesota team and the Citrus Bowl. The Tigers just played Alabama for an SEC title so this game doesn't do nearly as much to get the juices flowing. Minnesota, on the other hand, is excited about the opportunity to play a ranked team from the mighty SEC. It's a team on the rise under coach Jerry Kill, and its physicality up front poses problems for the Tigers. Minnesota has been a terrific investment at 17-8 ATS the last two seasons, including 10-2 ATS during this span when matched up against a team with a winning record. The Golden Gophers have been very competitive in bowl action too, losing by only four points and three points, respectively, the past two seasons. They'll be looking to break through here. Take the points.
Bill Biles
Michigan State vs. Baylor
Bonus Play Michigan State +3
This has the potential to be the best bowl game of this year. It is unclear how Baylor will respond after being snubbed for the Playoffs. Baylor hasn't seen a defense like Michigan State all year and I believe they will be able to slow Baylor's offense and Langford and company on MSU offense will be able to score. Michigan State wins this game.
Michigan State vs. Baylor
Bonus Play Michigan State +3
This has the potential to be the best bowl game of this year. It is unclear how Baylor will respond after being snubbed for the Playoffs. Baylor hasn't seen a defense like Michigan State all year and I believe they will be able to slow Baylor's offense and Langford and company on MSU offense will be able to score. Michigan State wins this game.
Scott Spreitzer
Wisconsin at Auburn 12:00PM
Bonus Play Wisconsin
Reason: I'm recommending a play on Wisconsin plus the points on Thursday. Auburn's defense let them down a little too often this season and that's why they are 8-4 and have been "relegated" to an appearance in the Outback Bowl. It's also the reason HC Gus Malzahn fired his DC and hired former Florida HC Will Muschamp as new DC. While Muschamp has been around the unit for the last few weeks, the coaching of the defense has been left to Charlie Harbison for this game. I don't expect to see big improvements until Muschamp is in place. Wisconsin lost their HC when Gary Anderson bolted for Oregon State following the Badgers ugly loss in the Big-10 Championship. Paul Chryst will take over the reigns after the bowl game, but for this one, Athletic Director Barry Alvarez will fill-in. Alvarez is here by popular demand after several players asked him to coach the team. Obviously, he's the man who rebuilt the Badger program and we expect the team to be even better prepared than they would have been under Anderson. Besides playing a stout brand of defense this season (sans conf title game) the Badgers also have dangerous weapons on offense, including RB Melvin Gordon, who has been upgraded to probable (illness). The Badgers also own a couple of decent wideouts, along with TE Sam Arneson and we expect Alvarez to have a game plan in store to best utilize Joel Stave when the Badgers need to go up top. Auburn is a tad over-valued, nothing new for a top shelf SEC program, while Wiscy gets no love off the ugly loss to the Buckeyes. We'll look to take advantage with a play on Wisconsin, plus the points on Thursday. Happy New Year's and best of luck! Scott Spreitzer.
Wisconsin at Auburn 12:00PM
Bonus Play Wisconsin
Reason: I'm recommending a play on Wisconsin plus the points on Thursday. Auburn's defense let them down a little too often this season and that's why they are 8-4 and have been "relegated" to an appearance in the Outback Bowl. It's also the reason HC Gus Malzahn fired his DC and hired former Florida HC Will Muschamp as new DC. While Muschamp has been around the unit for the last few weeks, the coaching of the defense has been left to Charlie Harbison for this game. I don't expect to see big improvements until Muschamp is in place. Wisconsin lost their HC when Gary Anderson bolted for Oregon State following the Badgers ugly loss in the Big-10 Championship. Paul Chryst will take over the reigns after the bowl game, but for this one, Athletic Director Barry Alvarez will fill-in. Alvarez is here by popular demand after several players asked him to coach the team. Obviously, he's the man who rebuilt the Badger program and we expect the team to be even better prepared than they would have been under Anderson. Besides playing a stout brand of defense this season (sans conf title game) the Badgers also have dangerous weapons on offense, including RB Melvin Gordon, who has been upgraded to probable (illness). The Badgers also own a couple of decent wideouts, along with TE Sam Arneson and we expect Alvarez to have a game plan in store to best utilize Joel Stave when the Badgers need to go up top. Auburn is a tad over-valued, nothing new for a top shelf SEC program, while Wiscy gets no love off the ugly loss to the Buckeyes. We'll look to take advantage with a play on Wisconsin, plus the points on Thursday. Happy New Year's and best of luck! Scott Spreitzer.
Aqueduct Longshots
Courtesy of Mike Dempsey
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct
R2: #4 Truth in the Lies 10-1
R4: #1 Leatherhead Lurie 10-1
R5: #6 Sun and Moon 12-1
R6: #8 Sweet Sway 10-1
R6: #7 First Sensation 8-1
R8: #7 Shea Darby 12-1
R8: #9 Run a Dubb Dubb 10-1
R9: #9 Whodattcat 8-1
Good luck today!
Courtesy of Mike Dempsey
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct
R2: #4 Truth in the Lies 10-1
R4: #1 Leatherhead Lurie 10-1
R5: #6 Sun and Moon 12-1
R6: #8 Sweet Sway 10-1
R6: #7 First Sensation 8-1
R8: #7 Shea Darby 12-1
R8: #9 Run a Dubb Dubb 10-1
R9: #9 Whodattcat 8-1
Good luck today!
Aqueduct courtesy of ShapperDaCapper
Best Bet:
STOLEN VICTORY (Race 9)
Best Value Bet:
SHEA DARBY (Race 8)
Race 1
I’ll have to start the year with the chalk, #5 GABBY’S BROWN, who has already finished ahead of the three main contenders (#1 YOUR TURN, #2 CORAL BEACH and #4 FERZETTI). I’ll go with CORAL BEACH to get second since she’ll probably work out a better trip than last time, then YOUR TURN, who finished three lengths behind CORAL BEACH despite riding the rail the whole way last time, and then FERZETTI, whose last can be forgiven because she was taken too far back.
Race 2
#7 BREACH OF DUTY beat a couple of those in Race 1 when she broke her maiden in October impressively. Since then she tried an allowance at Parx but found the mile too far for her liking. Today she cuts back and should sit the trip. #6 SHE’S MARVY was a game second at a similar level last time, should be involved late. #5 NOON SERMON won for fun at Belmont last time and earned a decent figure, eligible to improve and has a shot to win this one too. #3 SLAM CHOWDER may have just freaked in the mud in her debut but I wouldn’t leave her out of the discussion either.
Race 3
The Affectionately Stakes
The big question in here is whether or not #2 PENWITH will go to the lead. We know last time she was taken back to let her entrymate Snowbell lull them to sleep in the Comley, but she has been off the lead other times too and it has not worked out well. I’ll put a little faith in Fernando Jara and say that he’ll be smart enough to not let #7 BELLE GALLANTEY get an easy lead. BELLE GALLENTEY is the class of the field but she is vulnerable. After these two it’s a gap back to #6 MOMENT IN DIXIE, who has been chasing slightly better in her last two starts. She does not have any early speed and I do not anticipate a pace meltdown, so a minor award is her ceiling. After that I’d rather roll the dice with #3 SHAYJOLIE than #4 AMERICA. SHAYJOLIE may not be a two-turn horse (she rode the gold rail all the way around in the Comely, it doesn’t seal the deal for me) but she has some other races to point to that make her competitive. AMERICA has been beating up on much lesser (and few) foes in her last two starts.
Picks are: 2-7-6-3
Race 4
It’s hard to pick against #3 AWESOME LUTE, who buried #9 BAD TO THE ROAN when they met last time. His last speed figure towers over these. #1 LEATHERHEAD LURIE could sneak into the exacta; she put in a decent rally while racing wide last time, even finishing ahead of #9 BAD TO THE ROAN last time. After BAD TO THE ROAN its wide open, I’ll go with #2 SOUNDS OF SARATOGA cutting back to a sprint to complete the super.
Race 5
#7 WAVELL AVENUE looms a short price but is tough to pick against based on her last two effortless wins. #5 BOUNTY PINK has won four straight and continues to climb up steadily in class, very sharp right now. #8 MEDAGLIA D’ARGENTO has taken a tour of the entire course her last two starts, being pulled 5 and 8-wide! If she saves any sort of ground she’ll be right there at the end. #3 GINNY’S GREY was 3-wide on both turns last time chasing a slow pace, best of the rest.
Race 6
#6 BRIDGET MOLONEY tries slightly lesser rivals today, gets a tepid nod. #7 FIRST SENSATION returns to the claiming ranks after flopping at Parx; live at 8-1. #1 CONCEALED has back class that makes her live in here but the layoff is concerning. #9 MAMA ZEE will beat me if she wins, I don’t understand why she’s the favorite based off her last race.
Race 7
#2 THE SPOTTED WONDER took part in a strong pace duel last time but was only narrowly beaten, I think he’ll hold on this time. #3 VAN FRAASSEN chased much classier foes 5-wide last time, a win threat for sure at this level. #5 MAMBO AT THE GYM won easily in his inner track debut last time, class hike is not insignificant though. #8 LYRICAL MIRACLE moves up in class but has competitive speed figures.
Race 8
#7 SHEA DARBY is my upset pick in this highly contentious race. She pressed the pace while racing wide then tired late in her first start in about 9 months. With the rust shaken off she could be a great value play at 12-1. #4 LA BELLA VALERIA has won two of her last three, with her only defeat coming to Blithely. This is a slightly higher class than she’s used to though, tread with caution at a short price. #10 MS. SYLVIA T was a visually impressive winner last time and gets a positive rider switch to Fernando Jara; serious contender. #2 BILEAPS AND BOUNDS has some competitive races but hasn’t been out since May, underneath only.
Race 9
#2 STOLEN VICTORY is a proven commodity on dirt and has speed figures that are significantly faster than most of these, gets the call. #5 BROKEN BORDER has never raced on dirt and hasn’t worked that well over it but has top connections in his corner, can’t ignore. #1 MRS. SUNDAY chased a runaway winner home last time, might appreciate the added ground. #7 JULES N ROME has burned a lot of money in her young career but should be a factor here.
Best Bet:
STOLEN VICTORY (Race 9)
Best Value Bet:
SHEA DARBY (Race 8)
Race 1
I’ll have to start the year with the chalk, #5 GABBY’S BROWN, who has already finished ahead of the three main contenders (#1 YOUR TURN, #2 CORAL BEACH and #4 FERZETTI). I’ll go with CORAL BEACH to get second since she’ll probably work out a better trip than last time, then YOUR TURN, who finished three lengths behind CORAL BEACH despite riding the rail the whole way last time, and then FERZETTI, whose last can be forgiven because she was taken too far back.
Race 2
#7 BREACH OF DUTY beat a couple of those in Race 1 when she broke her maiden in October impressively. Since then she tried an allowance at Parx but found the mile too far for her liking. Today she cuts back and should sit the trip. #6 SHE’S MARVY was a game second at a similar level last time, should be involved late. #5 NOON SERMON won for fun at Belmont last time and earned a decent figure, eligible to improve and has a shot to win this one too. #3 SLAM CHOWDER may have just freaked in the mud in her debut but I wouldn’t leave her out of the discussion either.
Race 3
The Affectionately Stakes
The big question in here is whether or not #2 PENWITH will go to the lead. We know last time she was taken back to let her entrymate Snowbell lull them to sleep in the Comley, but she has been off the lead other times too and it has not worked out well. I’ll put a little faith in Fernando Jara and say that he’ll be smart enough to not let #7 BELLE GALLANTEY get an easy lead. BELLE GALLENTEY is the class of the field but she is vulnerable. After these two it’s a gap back to #6 MOMENT IN DIXIE, who has been chasing slightly better in her last two starts. She does not have any early speed and I do not anticipate a pace meltdown, so a minor award is her ceiling. After that I’d rather roll the dice with #3 SHAYJOLIE than #4 AMERICA. SHAYJOLIE may not be a two-turn horse (she rode the gold rail all the way around in the Comely, it doesn’t seal the deal for me) but she has some other races to point to that make her competitive. AMERICA has been beating up on much lesser (and few) foes in her last two starts.
Picks are: 2-7-6-3
Race 4
It’s hard to pick against #3 AWESOME LUTE, who buried #9 BAD TO THE ROAN when they met last time. His last speed figure towers over these. #1 LEATHERHEAD LURIE could sneak into the exacta; she put in a decent rally while racing wide last time, even finishing ahead of #9 BAD TO THE ROAN last time. After BAD TO THE ROAN its wide open, I’ll go with #2 SOUNDS OF SARATOGA cutting back to a sprint to complete the super.
Race 5
#7 WAVELL AVENUE looms a short price but is tough to pick against based on her last two effortless wins. #5 BOUNTY PINK has won four straight and continues to climb up steadily in class, very sharp right now. #8 MEDAGLIA D’ARGENTO has taken a tour of the entire course her last two starts, being pulled 5 and 8-wide! If she saves any sort of ground she’ll be right there at the end. #3 GINNY’S GREY was 3-wide on both turns last time chasing a slow pace, best of the rest.
Race 6
#6 BRIDGET MOLONEY tries slightly lesser rivals today, gets a tepid nod. #7 FIRST SENSATION returns to the claiming ranks after flopping at Parx; live at 8-1. #1 CONCEALED has back class that makes her live in here but the layoff is concerning. #9 MAMA ZEE will beat me if she wins, I don’t understand why she’s the favorite based off her last race.
Race 7
#2 THE SPOTTED WONDER took part in a strong pace duel last time but was only narrowly beaten, I think he’ll hold on this time. #3 VAN FRAASSEN chased much classier foes 5-wide last time, a win threat for sure at this level. #5 MAMBO AT THE GYM won easily in his inner track debut last time, class hike is not insignificant though. #8 LYRICAL MIRACLE moves up in class but has competitive speed figures.
Race 8
#7 SHEA DARBY is my upset pick in this highly contentious race. She pressed the pace while racing wide then tired late in her first start in about 9 months. With the rust shaken off she could be a great value play at 12-1. #4 LA BELLA VALERIA has won two of her last three, with her only defeat coming to Blithely. This is a slightly higher class than she’s used to though, tread with caution at a short price. #10 MS. SYLVIA T was a visually impressive winner last time and gets a positive rider switch to Fernando Jara; serious contender. #2 BILEAPS AND BOUNDS has some competitive races but hasn’t been out since May, underneath only.
Race 9
#2 STOLEN VICTORY is a proven commodity on dirt and has speed figures that are significantly faster than most of these, gets the call. #5 BROKEN BORDER has never raced on dirt and hasn’t worked that well over it but has top connections in his corner, can’t ignore. #1 MRS. SUNDAY chased a runaway winner home last time, might appreciate the added ground. #7 JULES N ROME has burned a lot of money in her young career but should be a factor here.
