Big Ten Bowl Report - Part 2
By ASA
Big Ten Bowl Games scheduled between Jan. 1 and Jan. 2
Wisconsin (+6, 62) vs. Auburn
Outback Bowl
Thursday, Jan. 1 - 12:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
It’s difficult to determine the motivation level for each side here in the Outback Bowl. Wisconsin is off of one of the worst losses in program history, and it came on one of the biggest stages – a 59-0 loss in the B1G Championship – and it lost head coach Gary Anderson after that game (former head coach and current AD Barry Alvarez will coach the team in the bowl game). Auburn, on the other hand, had hopes of making a trip to the playoffs after losing the National Championship last year. Instead, the Tigers suffered losses in three of its last four games of the season and didn’t even get a chance to defend its SEC Title. Regardless of motivation, we will see two of the best rush-offenses in the nation go head-to-head. Auburn, led by RB Artis-Payne and QB Marshall, ranked 12th nationally in rush YPG. Artis-Payne and Marshall combined for 2,267 rush yards and 22 rush TD. Marshall, while always a rushing threat, proved his worth as a passer this season as well, finishing with 2,315 pass yards (60.1%) with 18 TD and 7 INT. WR’s D’haquille Williams and Sammie Coates proved to be two of the better deep-play threats in the country, combining to catch 75 passes for 1,447 yards (19.3 YPC) and 9 TD.
Few teams had success slowing this Auburn offense this year, but Wisconsin’s 4th-ranked defense will have a shot on January 1st. The Badgers ranked 5th against the pass, 17th against the rush, and 14th in PPG allowed. Aside from the Ohio State Buckeyes in the B1G Championship, no offense could move the ball with consistency against Wisconsin. For Wisconsin, their offense revolves around RB Melvin Gordon. Gordon amassed an astonishing 2,336 rush yards and 29 total touchdowns this year. Running behind one of the best offensive lines in football, Gordon was too much for most defenses, even when those defenses gameplan was built around stopping the run. One thing that has hampered this offense is the inconsistent play of QB Joel Stave. Stave finished the regular season with 8 TD and 7 INT with just 53.6% completions, culminated by a terrible performance against Ohio State (17-of-43 passing for 187 yards, 0 TD, and 3 INT). Auburn has been vulnerable to the run this season. In their last six games against FBS opponents, the Tigers have allowed 197.5 rush YPG with 13 rush TD over that span (allowed 39 PPG to those six opponents). It’s a solid bet that Auburn will do its best to limit Gordon and this rushing attack to force Stave into some bad decisions.
Wisconsin has dropped four straight bowl games, including three straight Rose Bowls and last year’s Capital One Bowl to South Carolina (last win was in 2009 in the Champ Sports Bowl). Auburn is 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 bowl appearances. One of the losses was last year in the BCS Championship game to Florida State and the other was the 2006 Capital One Bowl to Wisconsin.
Michigan State (+3, 72) vs. Baylor
Goodyear Cotton Bowl
Thursday, Jan. 1 - 12:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
The 2014 Cotton Bowl is one of the top matchups of the non-playoff version as both Michigan State and Baylor have resume’s worthy of one of the nation’s top teams, but found themselves on the outside looking in on selection day. The Spartans took care of everyone on their schedule save for Oregon and Ohio State, the No. 2 and No. 4 teams in the rankings, respectively. The loss to Ohio State on November 8th knocked them out of contention for a B1G title, but the Spartans continued playing hard and won their final three games of the season by a combined score of 116-28. The offense is led by QB Connor Cook, who had a fantastic season with 2,900 pass yards, 22 TD, and 6 INT. All B1G WR Tony Lippett caught 60 passes for 1,124 yards and 11 touchdowns while RB Jeremy Langford continued to be one of the most reliable ‘backs in the nation, finishing with 1,360 rush yards and 19 TD (nine consecutive games with 100+ rush yards). This offense, specifically QB Cook, should see success moving the football against a suspect Baylor defense. The Bears ranked 104th against the pass this season, surrendering 260 pass YPG with 22 pass TD allowed. Against Texas Tech on November 29th, Baylor allowed 609 pass yards and 6 pass TD in a narrow 48-46 victory.
Baylor was able to hide a lot of its defensive issues with a stout offense. The Bears ranked 1st nationally in yards per game, 5th in passing, 23rd in rushing, and 1st in points per game. QB Bryce Petty should be at full strength for this matchup after tossing for 26 TD, 6 INT, and 3,305 yards (62.1% completions). He’s flanked by RB Shock Linwood, who rushed for 1,226 yards and 16 scores this year as well as a host of capable pass-catchers. Three different receivers finished with 50+ receptions and four finished with 6+ TD receptions. Baylor’s offense is a tough matchup for any team, but Michigan State is as well-equipped as any team to slow them down. Sparty’s defense ranked 6th nationally in yards allowed this season, 6th against the rush and 27th against the pass. Eight of 12 opponents were held to 14 points or fewer as the Spartans also ranked 13th in points per game allowed.
The Spartans have won three straight bowl games, winning outright as the underdog in each of those three games – including the Rose Bowl last season. Baylor is 2-1 SU & ATS in its last three bowl games after its loss to UCF in the Fiesta Bowl last year. Art Briles’ offense has averaged 52.7 PPG in its last three bowl games, but the defense has surrendered 45 PPG in those games as well.
Minnesota (+5.5, 48) vs. Missouri
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
Thursday, Jan. 1 - 1:00 p.m. ET (ABC)
Florida Citrus Bowl, Orlando, FL
Minnesota followed up last year’s successful 8-5 campaign with an 8-4 record here in 2014. Still it feels like a bit of a letdown considering the Gophers started 6-1 before limping to a 2-3 finished that included an upset loss to Illinois. A loss to rival Wisconsin in the season’s final game sent the Badgers to Indianapolis and the Gophers home, although after we saw what happened to Wisconsin against Ohio State, maybe it was good that the Gophers didn’t participate in that game. Minnesota will be playing a New Year’s Day bowl game for the first time since the 1962 Rose Bowl, so there will be no shortage of motivation for the Gophers here. Minnesota is led by a rushing attack led by bruising RB David Cobb, who broke the school record for rushing yards in a season with 1,548 and 13 rush TD, and QB Mitch Leidner, who tallied 462 rush yards and 10 TD. Minnesota will try to establish its rushing attack to try and neutralize Missouri’s strong pass-rush, which ranked 6th nationally with 40 sacks this season. Also because Leidner isn’t much of a threat in the passing game. He finished with 1,540 passing yards on 49% completions with 10 TD and 8 INT.
Missouri represented the SEC East in the conference championship game for the 2nd consecutive year after a 10-2 finish in the regular season, and for the 2nd consecutive year, they lost in blowout fashion – this time in a 13-42 loss to Alabama. Credit the Tigers for another 10-win campaign, but there aren’t many notable wins on the resume. Six of their seven conference wins were by 10 points or fewer and their “best” win was against a disappointing 7-5 Texas A&M team. That was the lone victory of the season against a team that finished better than .500. Maty Mauk pilots this offense, and he finished with a solid 23-TD, 11-INT campaign. Mauk gets a lot of help from a great receiving corps, led by WR Bud Sasser, who tallied 70 receptions for 935 yards and 10 TD. The backfield consists of Russell Hansbrough and Marcus Murphy sharing carries, as they both combined for 1,737 rush yards and 13 rush TD. Minnesota’s ‘D’ has been susceptible to strong rushing attacks this year; the Gophers allowed 232 rush YPG (5.7 YPC) over the last three weeks against Ohio State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin. Missouri will try to replicate that success here. Minnesota was 5-1 ATS as an underdog this year and covered four straight to end the season as a ‘dog.
The Gophers have dropped six straight bowl games including back-to-back years against Texas Tech (2012) and Syracuse (2013) and are 2-4 ATS in those games. Missouri lost to fellow B1G member, Indiana, at home on September 20th. The Tigers have won two straight bowl games, including a 10-point win over No. 13 Oklahoma State in the Cotton Bowl last year.
Ohio State (+9.5, 58.5) vs. Alabama
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Thursday, Jan. 1 - 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
With its 59-0 dominating win over Wisconsin in the B1G Championship, the Buckeyes convinced the playoff committee that they were worthy of a spot in the final four. The offense has been absolutely unstoppable for much of the season as OSU has averaged 48.5 PPG in 11 games since scoring a season-low 21 points in the lone loss to Virginia Tech on September 6th. Many expected this offense to take a step back when QB J.T. Barrett broke his ankle in the regular season finale against Michigan, but third-string QB Cardale Jones stepped in for the B1G Championship and didn’t miss a beat, tossing for 257 yards, 3 TD, and 0 INT in his first career start against a good Wisconsin defense. It helps Jones’ cause that he’s surrounded by one of the most talented rosters in the nation. RB Elliott is a burner in the backfield as he averaged 6.5 YPC on 1,402 rushing yards with 12 TD and there’s a bevy of talented receivers to throw to. WR Devin Smith is the big-play target as he caught 30 balls for 799 yards and 11 TD for an average of 26.6 yards per reception.
With all that said, Ohio State will face its toughest test of the season against an Alabama defense that is riddled with future NFL-ers. Defensively Alabama ranks 11st in total yards allowed, 2nd against the run, and 4th in points per game allowed. Auburn was the only team that exceeded 23 points against this Tide defense and seven of 13 opponents were held to 14 points or fewer. Alabama’s offense has been just as good as its defense. QB Blake Sims had a breakout campaign in which he tossed for 3,236 yards (64.7%) with 25 TD and just 7 INT. The “Thunder & Lightning” RB combo of Henry & Yeldon combined for 1,827 rush yards and 20 TD. The biggest threat on this offense – and that’s saying something – is WR Amari Cooper, whose 115 catches, 1,656 receiving yards, and 14 touchdowns earned him a trip to New York as a finalist for the Heisman trophy. OSU does a good job of getting after the quarterback (40 sacks to lead the B1G), thus limiting big-play potential and increasing turnover potential (21 INT’s led the B1G). OSU’s defense hasn’t been tested a whole lot this season, but a similar matchup would be its showdown with Michigan State. The Spartans gained 536 total yards, including 178 rushing yards (5.2 YPC) and 358 passing yards. Overall the Buckeyes rank 15th in yards per game allowed, 17th against the pass, and 23rd in points allowed.
Alabama head coach Nick Saban is one of four coaches in the nation to have beaten OSU coach Urban Meyer more than once. Saban went 2-1 SU & ATS against Meyer’s Florida Gators from 2008-2010. The last meeting, in 2010, was a convincing win for the Tide that sent Alabama to the BCS Championship. Alabama is 4-1 SU & ATS in its last five bowl games, but lost last year’s Sugar Bowl against Oklahoma as a 15-point favorite. Ohio State has dropped its last two bowl games, including last year’s Orange Bowl against Clemson as a 2-point favorite.
Iowa (+3.5, 51) vs. Tennessee
TaxSlayer Bowl
Friday, Jan. 2 - 3:20 p.m ET (ESPN)
Everbank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Iowa lost back-to-back heartbreakers at home to close out the season. First, with the B1G West title still within reach, the Hawkeyes fell by two points to Wisconsin. Then they hosted Nebraska in the new end-of-season rivalry game and lost by three points in overtime despite holding a 17-point lead late in the 3rd quarter. Motivation, or lack thereof, will be a factor here as the Hawkeyes were a trendy underdog pick to win the division and a fourth place finish seems like a major letdown. We’re not even sure how “good” Iowa is this year. Their wins came against teams with a combined 29-43 record – none with a record above .500. Offensively this team is limited. Jake Rudock finished with a solid 16 pass TD and just 5 INT, which is a major accomplishment considering his lack of receiving weapons. Leading rusher Mark Weisman had 14 rush TD, but had only 802 yards on 3.9 yards per carry.
This offense won’t have many easy yards against a Tennessee defensive unit that improved greatly as the year progressed. The Vols finished 35th in YPG allowed, 29th against the pass, and 40th in PPG allowed. Tennessee isn’t nearly as bad as the 6-6 record indicates. They played a brutal schedule where only two of 11 FBS opponents didn’t qualify for a bowl. Their six losses came against teams with a combined 54-19 record and three of the losses – three-point loss to Georgia, one-point loss to Florida, and eight-point loss to Missouri – could’ve easily gone in Tennessee’s favor. The offense was inconsistent as the Vols had to replace five starters on the offensive line from last year and integrate QB Joshua Dobbs midway through the season after Justin Worley’s injury. Dobbs showed flashes of brilliance but also made too many mistakes. He finished with 8 TD passes and 5 INT and proved he’s a dual threat with 393 rush yards and 6 rush TD. Freshman RB Jalen Hurd led the team in rushing with 777 yards on 4.5 YPC with 3 TD, but the Vols have little rushing threat to speak of, and rushing yards won’t come easy against this Hawkeyes defense that ranks 19th in YPG allowed.
Iowa has now dropped back-to-back bowl games after losing last year’s Outback Bowl to LSU, 14-21, but the Hawks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 bowl appearances. This will be Tennessee’s first bowl appearance since 2010, so most players will be playing in their first ever postseason game.
By ASA
Big Ten Bowl Games scheduled between Jan. 1 and Jan. 2
Wisconsin (+6, 62) vs. Auburn
Outback Bowl
Thursday, Jan. 1 - 12:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
It’s difficult to determine the motivation level for each side here in the Outback Bowl. Wisconsin is off of one of the worst losses in program history, and it came on one of the biggest stages – a 59-0 loss in the B1G Championship – and it lost head coach Gary Anderson after that game (former head coach and current AD Barry Alvarez will coach the team in the bowl game). Auburn, on the other hand, had hopes of making a trip to the playoffs after losing the National Championship last year. Instead, the Tigers suffered losses in three of its last four games of the season and didn’t even get a chance to defend its SEC Title. Regardless of motivation, we will see two of the best rush-offenses in the nation go head-to-head. Auburn, led by RB Artis-Payne and QB Marshall, ranked 12th nationally in rush YPG. Artis-Payne and Marshall combined for 2,267 rush yards and 22 rush TD. Marshall, while always a rushing threat, proved his worth as a passer this season as well, finishing with 2,315 pass yards (60.1%) with 18 TD and 7 INT. WR’s D’haquille Williams and Sammie Coates proved to be two of the better deep-play threats in the country, combining to catch 75 passes for 1,447 yards (19.3 YPC) and 9 TD.
Few teams had success slowing this Auburn offense this year, but Wisconsin’s 4th-ranked defense will have a shot on January 1st. The Badgers ranked 5th against the pass, 17th against the rush, and 14th in PPG allowed. Aside from the Ohio State Buckeyes in the B1G Championship, no offense could move the ball with consistency against Wisconsin. For Wisconsin, their offense revolves around RB Melvin Gordon. Gordon amassed an astonishing 2,336 rush yards and 29 total touchdowns this year. Running behind one of the best offensive lines in football, Gordon was too much for most defenses, even when those defenses gameplan was built around stopping the run. One thing that has hampered this offense is the inconsistent play of QB Joel Stave. Stave finished the regular season with 8 TD and 7 INT with just 53.6% completions, culminated by a terrible performance against Ohio State (17-of-43 passing for 187 yards, 0 TD, and 3 INT). Auburn has been vulnerable to the run this season. In their last six games against FBS opponents, the Tigers have allowed 197.5 rush YPG with 13 rush TD over that span (allowed 39 PPG to those six opponents). It’s a solid bet that Auburn will do its best to limit Gordon and this rushing attack to force Stave into some bad decisions.
Wisconsin has dropped four straight bowl games, including three straight Rose Bowls and last year’s Capital One Bowl to South Carolina (last win was in 2009 in the Champ Sports Bowl). Auburn is 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 bowl appearances. One of the losses was last year in the BCS Championship game to Florida State and the other was the 2006 Capital One Bowl to Wisconsin.
Michigan State (+3, 72) vs. Baylor
Goodyear Cotton Bowl
Thursday, Jan. 1 - 12:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
The 2014 Cotton Bowl is one of the top matchups of the non-playoff version as both Michigan State and Baylor have resume’s worthy of one of the nation’s top teams, but found themselves on the outside looking in on selection day. The Spartans took care of everyone on their schedule save for Oregon and Ohio State, the No. 2 and No. 4 teams in the rankings, respectively. The loss to Ohio State on November 8th knocked them out of contention for a B1G title, but the Spartans continued playing hard and won their final three games of the season by a combined score of 116-28. The offense is led by QB Connor Cook, who had a fantastic season with 2,900 pass yards, 22 TD, and 6 INT. All B1G WR Tony Lippett caught 60 passes for 1,124 yards and 11 touchdowns while RB Jeremy Langford continued to be one of the most reliable ‘backs in the nation, finishing with 1,360 rush yards and 19 TD (nine consecutive games with 100+ rush yards). This offense, specifically QB Cook, should see success moving the football against a suspect Baylor defense. The Bears ranked 104th against the pass this season, surrendering 260 pass YPG with 22 pass TD allowed. Against Texas Tech on November 29th, Baylor allowed 609 pass yards and 6 pass TD in a narrow 48-46 victory.
Baylor was able to hide a lot of its defensive issues with a stout offense. The Bears ranked 1st nationally in yards per game, 5th in passing, 23rd in rushing, and 1st in points per game. QB Bryce Petty should be at full strength for this matchup after tossing for 26 TD, 6 INT, and 3,305 yards (62.1% completions). He’s flanked by RB Shock Linwood, who rushed for 1,226 yards and 16 scores this year as well as a host of capable pass-catchers. Three different receivers finished with 50+ receptions and four finished with 6+ TD receptions. Baylor’s offense is a tough matchup for any team, but Michigan State is as well-equipped as any team to slow them down. Sparty’s defense ranked 6th nationally in yards allowed this season, 6th against the rush and 27th against the pass. Eight of 12 opponents were held to 14 points or fewer as the Spartans also ranked 13th in points per game allowed.
The Spartans have won three straight bowl games, winning outright as the underdog in each of those three games – including the Rose Bowl last season. Baylor is 2-1 SU & ATS in its last three bowl games after its loss to UCF in the Fiesta Bowl last year. Art Briles’ offense has averaged 52.7 PPG in its last three bowl games, but the defense has surrendered 45 PPG in those games as well.
Minnesota (+5.5, 48) vs. Missouri
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
Thursday, Jan. 1 - 1:00 p.m. ET (ABC)
Florida Citrus Bowl, Orlando, FL
Minnesota followed up last year’s successful 8-5 campaign with an 8-4 record here in 2014. Still it feels like a bit of a letdown considering the Gophers started 6-1 before limping to a 2-3 finished that included an upset loss to Illinois. A loss to rival Wisconsin in the season’s final game sent the Badgers to Indianapolis and the Gophers home, although after we saw what happened to Wisconsin against Ohio State, maybe it was good that the Gophers didn’t participate in that game. Minnesota will be playing a New Year’s Day bowl game for the first time since the 1962 Rose Bowl, so there will be no shortage of motivation for the Gophers here. Minnesota is led by a rushing attack led by bruising RB David Cobb, who broke the school record for rushing yards in a season with 1,548 and 13 rush TD, and QB Mitch Leidner, who tallied 462 rush yards and 10 TD. Minnesota will try to establish its rushing attack to try and neutralize Missouri’s strong pass-rush, which ranked 6th nationally with 40 sacks this season. Also because Leidner isn’t much of a threat in the passing game. He finished with 1,540 passing yards on 49% completions with 10 TD and 8 INT.
Missouri represented the SEC East in the conference championship game for the 2nd consecutive year after a 10-2 finish in the regular season, and for the 2nd consecutive year, they lost in blowout fashion – this time in a 13-42 loss to Alabama. Credit the Tigers for another 10-win campaign, but there aren’t many notable wins on the resume. Six of their seven conference wins were by 10 points or fewer and their “best” win was against a disappointing 7-5 Texas A&M team. That was the lone victory of the season against a team that finished better than .500. Maty Mauk pilots this offense, and he finished with a solid 23-TD, 11-INT campaign. Mauk gets a lot of help from a great receiving corps, led by WR Bud Sasser, who tallied 70 receptions for 935 yards and 10 TD. The backfield consists of Russell Hansbrough and Marcus Murphy sharing carries, as they both combined for 1,737 rush yards and 13 rush TD. Minnesota’s ‘D’ has been susceptible to strong rushing attacks this year; the Gophers allowed 232 rush YPG (5.7 YPC) over the last three weeks against Ohio State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin. Missouri will try to replicate that success here. Minnesota was 5-1 ATS as an underdog this year and covered four straight to end the season as a ‘dog.
The Gophers have dropped six straight bowl games including back-to-back years against Texas Tech (2012) and Syracuse (2013) and are 2-4 ATS in those games. Missouri lost to fellow B1G member, Indiana, at home on September 20th. The Tigers have won two straight bowl games, including a 10-point win over No. 13 Oklahoma State in the Cotton Bowl last year.
Ohio State (+9.5, 58.5) vs. Alabama
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Thursday, Jan. 1 - 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
With its 59-0 dominating win over Wisconsin in the B1G Championship, the Buckeyes convinced the playoff committee that they were worthy of a spot in the final four. The offense has been absolutely unstoppable for much of the season as OSU has averaged 48.5 PPG in 11 games since scoring a season-low 21 points in the lone loss to Virginia Tech on September 6th. Many expected this offense to take a step back when QB J.T. Barrett broke his ankle in the regular season finale against Michigan, but third-string QB Cardale Jones stepped in for the B1G Championship and didn’t miss a beat, tossing for 257 yards, 3 TD, and 0 INT in his first career start against a good Wisconsin defense. It helps Jones’ cause that he’s surrounded by one of the most talented rosters in the nation. RB Elliott is a burner in the backfield as he averaged 6.5 YPC on 1,402 rushing yards with 12 TD and there’s a bevy of talented receivers to throw to. WR Devin Smith is the big-play target as he caught 30 balls for 799 yards and 11 TD for an average of 26.6 yards per reception.
With all that said, Ohio State will face its toughest test of the season against an Alabama defense that is riddled with future NFL-ers. Defensively Alabama ranks 11st in total yards allowed, 2nd against the run, and 4th in points per game allowed. Auburn was the only team that exceeded 23 points against this Tide defense and seven of 13 opponents were held to 14 points or fewer. Alabama’s offense has been just as good as its defense. QB Blake Sims had a breakout campaign in which he tossed for 3,236 yards (64.7%) with 25 TD and just 7 INT. The “Thunder & Lightning” RB combo of Henry & Yeldon combined for 1,827 rush yards and 20 TD. The biggest threat on this offense – and that’s saying something – is WR Amari Cooper, whose 115 catches, 1,656 receiving yards, and 14 touchdowns earned him a trip to New York as a finalist for the Heisman trophy. OSU does a good job of getting after the quarterback (40 sacks to lead the B1G), thus limiting big-play potential and increasing turnover potential (21 INT’s led the B1G). OSU’s defense hasn’t been tested a whole lot this season, but a similar matchup would be its showdown with Michigan State. The Spartans gained 536 total yards, including 178 rushing yards (5.2 YPC) and 358 passing yards. Overall the Buckeyes rank 15th in yards per game allowed, 17th against the pass, and 23rd in points allowed.
Alabama head coach Nick Saban is one of four coaches in the nation to have beaten OSU coach Urban Meyer more than once. Saban went 2-1 SU & ATS against Meyer’s Florida Gators from 2008-2010. The last meeting, in 2010, was a convincing win for the Tide that sent Alabama to the BCS Championship. Alabama is 4-1 SU & ATS in its last five bowl games, but lost last year’s Sugar Bowl against Oklahoma as a 15-point favorite. Ohio State has dropped its last two bowl games, including last year’s Orange Bowl against Clemson as a 2-point favorite.
Iowa (+3.5, 51) vs. Tennessee
TaxSlayer Bowl
Friday, Jan. 2 - 3:20 p.m ET (ESPN)
Everbank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Iowa lost back-to-back heartbreakers at home to close out the season. First, with the B1G West title still within reach, the Hawkeyes fell by two points to Wisconsin. Then they hosted Nebraska in the new end-of-season rivalry game and lost by three points in overtime despite holding a 17-point lead late in the 3rd quarter. Motivation, or lack thereof, will be a factor here as the Hawkeyes were a trendy underdog pick to win the division and a fourth place finish seems like a major letdown. We’re not even sure how “good” Iowa is this year. Their wins came against teams with a combined 29-43 record – none with a record above .500. Offensively this team is limited. Jake Rudock finished with a solid 16 pass TD and just 5 INT, which is a major accomplishment considering his lack of receiving weapons. Leading rusher Mark Weisman had 14 rush TD, but had only 802 yards on 3.9 yards per carry.
This offense won’t have many easy yards against a Tennessee defensive unit that improved greatly as the year progressed. The Vols finished 35th in YPG allowed, 29th against the pass, and 40th in PPG allowed. Tennessee isn’t nearly as bad as the 6-6 record indicates. They played a brutal schedule where only two of 11 FBS opponents didn’t qualify for a bowl. Their six losses came against teams with a combined 54-19 record and three of the losses – three-point loss to Georgia, one-point loss to Florida, and eight-point loss to Missouri – could’ve easily gone in Tennessee’s favor. The offense was inconsistent as the Vols had to replace five starters on the offensive line from last year and integrate QB Joshua Dobbs midway through the season after Justin Worley’s injury. Dobbs showed flashes of brilliance but also made too many mistakes. He finished with 8 TD passes and 5 INT and proved he’s a dual threat with 393 rush yards and 6 rush TD. Freshman RB Jalen Hurd led the team in rushing with 777 yards on 4.5 YPC with 3 TD, but the Vols have little rushing threat to speak of, and rushing yards won’t come easy against this Hawkeyes defense that ranks 19th in YPG allowed.
Iowa has now dropped back-to-back bowl games after losing last year’s Outback Bowl to LSU, 14-21, but the Hawks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 bowl appearances. This will be Tennessee’s first bowl appearance since 2010, so most players will be playing in their first ever postseason game.
