Pigskin Prophet
NCAAF
SOUTH CAROLINA at NORTH CAROLINA STATE
A tough schedule to start the year for South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier, at NC State and at Georgia. This team has not run the football well of late, and there are concerns for 2009 with QB and the offensive line. Junior QB Chris Smelley (14 TDs, 15 INTs) and Tommy Beecher are gone, so it falls on sophomore QB Stephen Garcia (6 TDs, 8 picks, 832 yards). He's got talent, but was suspended! early on for off-the-field problems and is playing behind a weak offensive line. They were getting blasted all year long with little pass protection, plus 6-5 senior TE Jared Cook (573 yards) is the only returnee with significant experience. Spurrier is 11-9 SU, 13-7 ATS on the road at South Carolina, but they run into a very disciplined and up and coming NC State program under coach Tom O'Brien. If momentum is huge, NC State should be fired up for 2009, ending last season on a 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS run. In fact, they have covered 8 straight games. O'Brien likes a balanced offense and his 2008 team averaged 23.5 points, 125 yards rushing and 200 passing. The key is the play of sophomore quarterback Russell Wilson, who was sensational with 17 TDs and only one interception! Wilson is a great scrambler, but also injury-prone. He has excellent pass catchers in 6-foot-3 junior WR Owen Spencer (609 yards, 5 TDs), along with 6-foot-4 junior WR Jarvis Williams (432 yards). North Carolina State was last in the ACC last year in pass defense, having too many breakdowns in coverage, something Spurrier would LIKE to attack, but does he have the personnel? The Wolfpack is 7-4 and 6-5 over the total the last two years with an improving pass offense and a suspect defense. Revenge? South Carolina crushed NC State in the opener a year ago, 34-0, with 171 yards rushing, making this a tough call.
Projected Score: NC State 23, South Carolina 20
UTAH STATE at UTAH
New head coach Gary Andersen brings in a spread offense to a Utah State program lacking talent, depth and defense, off a 3-9 season allowing 34.7 ppg. 18 starters are back, with junior QB Diondre Borel running the offense. He's actually very good, with 11 TDs, 11 INTs for a bad team, plus 632 yards rushing to lead the team. He doesn't have any help, however. Utah State's cornerbacks (Chris Randle, Kejon Murphy) are small, which will be exploited here by Utah and coach Kyle Whittingham, off a perfect 13-0 SU, 8-4 ATS 2008 season. Utah averaged 37 points, 168 yards rushing, 4.0 ypc, and 236 passing, but loses their top offensive players.! The key will be speedy junior QB Corbin Louks. He has been an! underst udy to QB Brian Johnson for the past two years; Louks played in 19 games in his first two seasons, primarily in run situations, and he has 4.42 40 speed. The Utah wide out corps should have a big advantage here with David Reed and former JUCO transfer 6-4 WR Aiona Key. Reed (427 yards) averaged a team-high 17.1 yards per catch and scored six touchdowns in his first year at Utah. They allowed 17 ppg last fall. Seven starters return for the defense, led by senior All-America candidate LB Stevenson Sylvester. They smoked Utah State, 58-10, on the road a year ago, with an edge in yards of 446-116. Utah is 31-6 SU, 23-10-1 ATS its last 37 home games!
Projected Score: Utah 38, Utah State 13
OREGON at BOISE STATE
Oregon was a Pac 10 powerhouse last season, rolling up 10 wins and finishing behind USC. Coach Mike Bellotti has stepped down after 14 seasons, taking over for Pat Kilkenny as athletic director. New HC Chip Kelly has been the offensive coordinator, and has done a great job with wide-open, spread offenses. Last season the offense averaged 42 points, 277 yards rushing and 200 passing! They are loaded at quarterback, with junior QB Jeremiah Masoli (13 TDs and 5 picks, 1,744 yards), an outstanding runner, rushing for 718 yards, 5.7 yards per carry. Senior RB LeGarrette Blount pounded out 1,002 yards, ! 17 TDs and averaged 7.3 ypc, but the Ducks lost their best offensive linemen. The defense has new players up front and allowed 28 ppg. Oregon carries a 4-2 run over the total into this one. Boise State Broncos also has a deadly offense, averaging 39 points, 162 yards rushing and 294 passing per game. Sophomore QB Kellen Moore (25 TDs, 10 INTs) had a terrific freshman campaign, throwing for 3,486 yards and 69% completions and has a deep wideout corps, led by senior WR Jeremy Childs (802 yards.) The ground game has new looks, but the defense is experienced and was outstanding, allowing 12 points per game! As usual, they were deadly at home on the blue carpet at 6-0 SU, 2-3 ATS. Since 1999, Boise! is 65-2 SU, 39-17 ATS at home on the blue carpet! A year ago Oregon was a 10-point home favorite and lost 37-32 to Boise, despite 464 yards. 4 turnovers did them in. Oregon trailed 37-6 in the fourth quarter! Boise shredded a better Oregon secondary for 386 yards, so look for them to attack through the air again.
Projected Score: Boise 30, Oregon 28
TROY at BOWLING GREEN
Troy has 12 starters returning to a terrific team that went 8-5 and averaged 33.3 ppg with exceptional balance: 175 yards rushing, 246 passing per contest. They are loaded on offense with senior QB Levi Brown (15 TDs, 3 INTs), junior RB DuJuan Harris (1,077 yards, 5.1 ypc) and junior WR Jerrel Jernigan (868 yards). Remember, this team led LSU 31-3 in the third quarter a year ago! Sure, they lost after running out of gas, but do you think Bowling Green could build up a 4-TD lead at LSU? They also lost at Ohio State, 28-10, as a +20 dog. The Bowling Green Falcons are off a 6-6 SU/8-4 ATS season, but have a new head coach in Dave Clawson. Clawson brings nine years of head coaching experience, most recently at Richmond ! (2004-07) and Fordham (1999-2003). Clawson twice has been named national Division I-AA Coach of the Year. Under center the Falcons return senior QB Tyler Sheehan (20 TDs, 9 picks in 2008), but there are only 10 returning starters plus a new coach. The passing game should be above average with senior WR Freddie Barnes (364 yards), who battled injuries, but in 2007 he had 962 yards, 9 TDs. Senior WR Chris Wright (249 yards) also returns. As good as the offense can be, the defense has been up and down, allowing 23.3 ppg in 2008. Only one starter returns from the defensive line and one linebacker, so there is work to be done. They are 11-7 over the total the last two years with this great offense and suspect 'D'. BG upset Pitt in the 2008 opener, 27-17, but also got bombed by Minnesota (42-17) in their home opener. Troy's offensive balance and defense should be the difference.
Projected Score: Troy 30, Bowling Green 23
NORTH TEXAS at BALL STATE
The good news is North Texas has 17 returning starters. The bad news is they were 1-11, allowed 47.6 ppg and were minus-17 in turnovers. In the lone game they won, they led Western Kentucky 45-40 but the Hilltoppers were on the NT one with seconds to go. On the final play, North Texas had! a 97-yard interception return for a misleading 51-40 final. You get the idea: this was a bad team. They have a decent passing game (237 yards pg, 20 ppg), but there is a new QB in sophomore Riley Dodge, the coach\'s son, who only threw two passes last fall. HC Todd Dodge's team was 102nd in the nation in scoring and dead last in total defense, even though he has a reputation of running successful wide-open spread attacks in high school. This defense was terrible (the fewest points they allowed was 33 and 35). The defense is expected to be better, with a decent LB corps and secondary. Ball State lost it! s best players, including QB Nate Davis (jumping early to the ! NFL), pl us Coach Brady Hoke. First-year head coach Stan Parrish has been offensive coordinator the last four seasons. Sophomore QB Kelly Page is a top recruit who was attracted to this high-flying attack and there is experience in the receiving corps with sophomore WR Briggs Orsbon (813 yards). 5-foot-6 senior RB MiQuale Lewis returns, after running for 1,735 yards, 5.4 yards per carry, and 25 TDs! Ball State's defense was strong, allowing 18 ppg. They started 12-0, but finished 0-2 SU/ATS, blowing the MAC title game. Still, Ball State is an impressive 15-5 ATS on the road the last three seasons. They should win! , but this offense may need some time to gel.
Projected Score: Ball State 27, North Texas 17
NFL
PITTSBURGH STEELERS at CAROLINA PANTHERS
Carolina (0-3 SU/ATS) has more to work on than the defending champs. The Steelers (2-1 SU/ATS) have outstanding depth, with a dominant defense even in preseason. They are 3-0 under the total. QB Ben Roethlisberger and veteran QB Charlie Batch will have to play as young QB Dennis Dixon separated his right shoulder and won't play. Batch will get most of the snaps. Starters will play little (if at all) in Week 4. The offensive line has some injury concerns and looked weak against the Cardinals, a 20-10 win, with 90 yards rushing but just 2.8 yards per rush, 99 yards (5.0 ypc) against Washington, and only 81 in Saturdays 17-0 win over Buffalo. Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin is 9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS in preseason, and a sizzling 10-2 under the total. Carolina (0-3 SU/ATS) coach John Fox is 18-13 SU/15-15-1 ATS in preseason but winless this season. His QB rotation is Jake Delhomme, Josh McCown, Matt Moore and Hunter Cantwell. The Panthers have a good offensive line, getting 124 yards, 5.4 yards per carry in the opener, then 98 yards rushing at Miami, and 78 against the Ravens. However, they have lost all three and have injury problems: Carolina was without five key players sitting out with injuries running backs DeAngelo Williams (sore knee) and Jonathan Stewart (sore Achilles), LBs Jon Beason (knee) and Thomas Davis (knee), and safety Charles Godfrey (hand). The defense has been soft up front, allowing 139, 141 and 118 yards rushing in three games. Nose tackle Maake Kemoeatu (torn Achilles) has already been lost for the season. The Panthers need a veteran defensive tackle to help fill the void left by Kemoeatu's season-ending injury. The Panthers have one experienced defensive tackle, Damione Lewis, and only one other player at the position with any NFL experience at all. Nick Hayden, who appeared in two games as a rookie last season. Coach Fox has gone easy on the players this camp, but it hasnt helped their health. The Panthers have fumbled 10 times in their three exhibitions, losses against the Giants (six) and Dolphins (four) and Ravens. They've lost five of them. Look for boring game plans with more running than passing by both teams, which might keep the score down.
Projected Score: Panthers 13, Steelers 10
