Thursday 09/03/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ron Raymond

CFB Side

Oregon +4 vs Boise St.

Analysis: *Note: The Oregon Ducks are 18-1 SU vs. WAC opponents and their only lost was to the Broncos last season in Week 4 at home, when they lost as a -10 point home favorite and the final scored was 37-32. Revenge factor for the Ducks and Boise State is 3-11 vs. Pac 10 Teams lifetime.
Keys to selection: When Oregon team played as Underdog during the month of September; the Ducks are 12-4-1 (75%) in this role since 1996.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pigskin Prophet

(113) PITTSBURGH STEELERS
(114) CAROLINA PANTHERS

Take "(114) CAROLINA PANTHERS"

Carolina (0-3 SU/ATS) has more to work on than the defending champs. The Steelers (2-1 SU/ATS) have outstanding depth, with a dominant defense even in preseason. They are 3-0 under the total. QB Ben Roethlisberger and veteran QB Charlie Batch will have to play as young QB Dennis Dixon separated his right shoulder and won't play. Batch will get most of the snaps. Starters will play little (if at all) in Week 4. The offensive line has some injury concerns and looked weak against the Cardinals, a 20-10 win, with 90 yards rushing but just 2.8 yards per rush, 99 yards (5.0 ypc) against Washington, and only 81 in Saturday.5?s 17-0 win over Buffalo. Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin is 9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS in preseason, and a sizzling 10-2 under the total. Carolina (0-3 SU/ATS) coach John Fox is 18-13 SU/15-15-1 ATS in preseason but winless this season. His QB rotation is Jake Delhomme, Josh McCown, Matt Moore and Hunter Cantwell. The Panthers have a good offensive line, getting 124 yards, 5.4 yards per carry in the opener, then 98 yards rushing at Miami, and 78 against the Ravens. However, they have lost all three and have injury problems: Carolina was without five key players sitting out with injuries .5? running backs DeAngelo Williams (sore knee) and Jonathan Stewart (sore Achilles), LBs Jon Beason (knee) and Thomas Davis (knee), and safety Charles Godfrey (hand). The defense has been soft up front, allowing 139, 141 and 118 yards rushing in three games. Nose tackle Maake Kemoeatu (torn Achilles) has already been lost for the season. The Panthers need a veteran defensive tackle to help fill the void left by Kemoeatu's season-ending injury. The Panthers have one experienced defensive tackle, Damione Lewis, and only one other player at the position with any NFL experience at all .5? Nick Hayden, who appeared in two games as a rookie last season. Coach Fox has gone easy on the players this camp, but it hasn.5?t helped their health. The Panthers have fumbled 10 times in their three exhibitions, losses against the Giants (six) and Dolphins (four) and Ravens. They've lost five of them. Look for boring game plans with more running than passing by both teams, which might keep the score down.

Projected Score: Panthers 13, Steelers 10

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CONGROVE COMPUTER RANKINGS

FAVORITES

Thursday, September 3

Troy (-3) by 5.03 over BOWLING GREEN - Troy has won or shared the last three Sun Belt titles. This season's team may be the best that Troy has fielded since moving up to the FBS level in 2001. The Trojans' last visit to the Buckeye State almost produced an upset over the Buckeyes themselves last September. The Dave Clawson era begins at BGSU while Troy begins its' 19th season under Larry Blakeney.

UPSETS

Thursday, September 3

South Carolina by 0.16 over N.C. STATE (-3.5) - South Carolina won last year's opener 34-0 in Columbia. That was the first meeting between the two teams since 1999 and just the second since the Gamecocks joined the SEC in 1992.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hot Lines: Today's best MLB bets

Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs (-170)

Who can dare resist a little taste of interleague in September?

It’s like having BBQ in the dead of winter.

The Cubs and ChiSox finish out their 2009 rivalry with this makeup game for a postponement back in June. The teams split that series while the White Sox have a 3-2 advantage in the season series.

A lot has happened since the last time these cross-town rivals met. The Cubs fallen far behind the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central, going 23-21 since the break heading into Wednesday. The White Sox have also struggled. They’ve dropped out of contention in the AL Central with a 19-23 mark since the Mid-Summer Classic.

But while there is no joy in the Windy City, it’s tough to play as bad as the ChiSox. Heading into Wednesday, they’ve won just once in the past 10 games and have managed to score only 3.5 runs per game during this slump.

Manager Ozzie Guillen, who should be fired following this season, has insisted his team has not packed it in after falling seven games behind Detroit in the standings and 13.5 games out of the AL Wild Card hunt. Despite Guillen’s persistence, the franchise has all the signs of a tanker – waiving talents, making call-ups and shutting down injured players.

The Cubs seem like the perfect foe to make Guillen realize that.

Pick: Chicago Cubs


San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies (+128, 8)

Thursday’s game will feature two former Cy Young winners on the bump. But that’s not why this contest between the Giants and Phillies will play under the 8-run total.

Sure, Tim Lincecum and Pedro Martinez are impressive names.

Lincecum is coming off an eight-inning shutout of the Rockies Friday, which is the same type of effort he put up against Philadelphia when the teams met on August 1. And Martinez has proven he still has something left in the tank and has had plenty of time to rest with a rain delay shortening his most recent outing.

But that’s not why bettors should look to the under Thursday.

Both teams couldn’t hit the broadside of Barry Bond’s forehead. San Francisco is hitting .215 this past week and has totaled a major-league low 39 hits in that span. The Phillies are also whiffing at the plate, posting a .251 average in the past seven days. Philadelphia has mustered a MLB-worst 15 runs during this stretch.

Tuesday’s Game 1 of this series finished with a 1-0 win for the Phillies.

Pick: Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Streaking and Slumping Pitchers

Streaking

Tim Lincecum (13-4, 2.33 ERA), San Francisco Giants

It’s kind of hard to believe this kid was almost traded for Alex Rios. Two years ago, the Giants were looking for a good young bat and Rios, then with the Blue Jays, was coming off an All-Star season.

San Francisco fans should let out a huge sigh of relief that the trade never materialized.

Lincecum’s stuff is – to borrow a line from Chicago Bulls radio man Chuck Swirsky – sick, wicked and nasty.

He pitched eight scoreless innings in a 2-0 win over the Rockies his last time to the bump. The Giants have won just once over his last four road starts, but the price is always cheaper than backing him at home.

If you don’t want to back the away team, think about the under. The under is 7-2 the last nine times Lincecum was on the mound.

John Smoltz (3-5, 6.71 AL & NL combined), St. Louis Cardinals

Some things go so well together they should never be separated, like peanut butter and jam or a smoke and a beer. You can now throw John Smoltz and the National League in the same category.

The former Brave looked like he didn’t belong in the majors during his short stint with the Red Sox. He was getting hit hard often and lefties were clobbering his not fast enough fastball.

But a return to the senior circuit has turned him back into a reliable and strikeout-tallying pitcher. He’s gathered 15 K’s in just 11 innings of work with the Cards.

“He knew he could still pitch when he got released by Boston,” teammate Albert Pujols said of the veteran hurler. “Obviously, he’s just been unbelievable.”

Before bettors get too excited about Smoltz’s 0.82 ERA in the NL this year, let’s not forget that his success has come against the Padres and Nationals – not exactly stiff competition.


Slumping

Manny Parra (9-10, 6.66), Milwaukee Brewers

This lefty pitcher is a frequent visitor to the slumping section. Milwaukee, oddly enough, is winning (5-2 in his last seven appearances) with Parra out there despite his devilishly-high ERA.

“For my own personal satisfaction, I’d like to pitch better,” Parra, who has an 8.25 ERA in his last seven starts, told reporters after his last outing. “But at the end of the day everyone in this clubhouse is happy when we win so that’s all that matters.”

Parra has good stuff, but he routinely gets into trouble because of walks. His lack of control leads to big innings and early exits. It doesn’t bode well either that it was the light-hitting Nats and Pirates who were roughing Parra up in his last three starts.

The best play with Parra on the bump might be the over. His starts have finished above the total in seven of his last eight games.

 

[bigdaveyt]

BOB VALENTINO

The College Football season kicks off Thursday, and I'm coming out firing!​

30 DIME WINNER #5 IN A ROW

College Football Bookie Basher
Utah State at Utah​

Which side is he on? If this is a req, please remember to keep it in the reqs thread. Tomorrow is Christmas Eve for me and Saturday is Christmas. Time to get the money train chuggin' baby!!

CPAW: sorry for the clutter (first of about 100 times I'll say that this season)

GOD IT IS GOOD TO BE BACK!!!
:drink::drink:

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rob Vinciletti

NFL | Sep 03
Oakland Raiders vs. Seattle Seahawks Seattle Seahawks
-2½-110 at SPBOOK > 21h.
On Thursday day night the comp play is on The Seattle Seahawks.Game 126 at 10:00 eastern.Seattle has several solid positive indicators on their side tonight.Seattle is 7-1 with a posted line of +3 to -3,5-1 with 6 or less days rest,8-2 on grass,4-0 vs less than 500 opponents,10-1 ats last 11 games,6-1 vs Afc West,6-1 when the total is 35.5 to 42 and 4-1 vs the Raiders in preseason matchups the past few years.Oakland was dreadful on Saturday getting destroyed by the Saints.The Raiders are just 1-6 when the total is 35.5 to 42.When installed as an underdog they have lost the last six times and they are 1-5 when playing with 6 or less days of rest.On Thursday I have a solid system plays in both MLB and the NFL.Jump on board and cash out with thees cutting edge technical sides.For the Bonus Play take the Seattle Seahaks.Bol RV-

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

THURSDAY

Eagles +3

GBay/Tenn over 37

 

[jcubs55]

Foooooooooooooooooootbaaaaaaaaaaaaaallllllllllllllllllllllllll!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Donkwin47]

Foooooooooooooooooootbaaaaaaaaaaaaaallllllllllllllllllllllllll!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

YYYYYYYYYyyyyuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuupppppppppppppppp!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim feist

(967) SEATTLE MARINERS
(968) OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Take "(968) OAKLAND ATHLETICS"

Seattle is a weak road team. Starter Ian Snell has a strong ERA of late, but a close look finds him facing terrible offensive teams the last three starts. And he has allowed more walks than Ks in those starts! Oakland starter Brett Tomko has been effective, with a 3.62 ERA on the season. He's also been red hot, with a 1.62 ERA and a 2-0 record his last three starts. Excellent value with the home team. Play the A's.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Vegas Steam Line

Free Winner for Thursday: Take KANSAS CITY -1 over St Louis

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB WRITE-UP

Thursday, September 3

Hot Pitchers
-- Smoltz is 1-0, 0.82 in two starts for the Cardinals.
-- Marquis is 4-2, 2.22 in his last eight home starts. Misch allowed one run in seven IP in his first start for the Mets.
-- Martinez is 2-0, 4.50 in four starts; he left two of the four starts early because of rain delays. Lincecum has a 1.80 RA in his last two starts.
-- Hanson is 4-1, 2.93 in his last five starts.
-- Garland is 2-0, 2.40 in his last two starts; he's pitching against team he played for until a few days ago.
-- Dempster is 2-0, 3.46 in his last couple starts.

-- Red Sox won last three Buchholz starts, scoring 21 runs. Price is 2-1, 2.79 in his last three starts.
-- Romero is 1-2, 6.00 in his last five starts.
-- Tomko is 2-0, 1.62 in three starts for Oakland. Snell is 3-0, 2.16 in his last three starts.

Cold Pitchers
-- Parra has an 8.14 RA in his last eight starts.
-- Nolasco has a 7.89 RA in his last four starts.
-- Buckner is 0-4, 13.25 in his last four starts, last of which was June 26.
-- Torres is 0-0, 6.75 in two starts for White Sox.

-- Carmona is 1-3, 5.56 in his last four starts. Robertson allowed two runs in four IP in his first '09 start.
-- Gaudin is 0-4, 6.96 in his last eight starts.

Hot Teams
-- Giants won six of their last eight games. Phillies are 14-7 in their last 21 games.
-- Braves won eight of their last twelve road games.
-- Cardinals won 11 of their last 13 games.
-- Arizona won six of its last seven games.
-- Cubs won four of their last six games.

-- Detroit is 16-7 in its last 23 home games.
-- Bronx won 16 of its last 21 games.
-- Red Sox won seven of their last nine games. Rays are 12-5 in their last seventeen home games.
-- A's won four of their last five home games. Mariners won seven of their last ten games.

Cold Teams
-- Marlins lost five of their last seven games.
-- Brewers lost seven of their last ten road games.
-- White Sox lost 20 of their last 28 road games.
-- Rockies lost five of their last seven games. Mets lost 11 of their last 14 games.
-- Dodgers lost 12 of their last 20 home games.

-- Indians lost four of their last five games.
-- Blue Jays lost six of their last seven games.

Totals
-- Seven of last eight Parra starts went over the total.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Marquis starts.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in San Francisco's last six games.
-- Over is 10-3-1 in last fourteen Florida home games.
-- Three of last four Buckner starts went over the total.
-- 11 of last 14 White Sox games stayed under the total.

-- Eight of last eleven Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Buchholz starts stayed under the total.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Romero starts.
-- Three of last four Seattle games stayed under the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Trend Report

1:05 PM
CLEVELAND vs. DETROIT
Cleveland is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing Detroit
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Detroit is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home

2:15 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. ST. LOUIS
Milwaukee is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing St. Louis
Milwaukee is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
St. Louis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
St. Louis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

2:20 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. CHI CUBS
Chi White Sox are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games
Chi White Sox are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games on the road
Chi Cubs are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Chi Cubs's last 10 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox

3:10 PM
NY METS vs. COLORADO
NY Mets are 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
NY Mets are 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Colorado is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing NY Mets
Colorado is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against NY Mets

7:05 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. PHILADELPHIA
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing San Francisco
Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home

7:07 PM
NY YANKEES vs. TORONTO
NY Yankees are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games when playing Toronto
NY Yankees are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games on the road
Toronto is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Toronto is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games at home

7:08 PM
BOSTON vs. TAMPA BAY
Boston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Boston is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games at home
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Boston

7:10 PM
ATLANTA vs. FLORIDA
Atlanta is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Florida
Florida is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
Florida is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

10:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. OAKLAND
Seattle is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Seattle is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Oakland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle

10:10 PM
ARIZONA vs. LA DODGERS
Arizona is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games on the road
Arizona is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers are 13-6 SU in their last 19 games when playing Arizona
LA Dodgers are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing Arizona

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

(127) SOUTH CAROLINA
(128) NORTH CAROLINA STATE
Take "(127) SOUTH CAROLINA"

South Carolina and NC State kick off the '09 campaign on ESPN, and it looks as though it should be a terrific opening game. There's a ton of excitement in Raleigh as the Wolfpack improved tremendously last season and they might be even better this year. QB Russell Wilson is one of the best young QB's in the land, and had a mind blowing 17:1 TD:Int ratio as a freshman! That said, I think this year's Wolfpack will be better later than sooner. The running game is suspect and the defense is already minus three projected starters. South Carolina just hasn't put it together to the level most expected when Steve Spurrier took over the program. The Gamecocks have been okay, but that's about it. I don't see things changing this year, as the offense just doesn't appear all that good. The defense is shorthanded tonight with three projected starters on suspension. South Carolina buried NC State to open last season, wiping them out by a 34-0 margin. So there's major revenge for the hosts here. But that was factored into the opening number, and the bettors have pushed the line up a deuce from where it started. I don't have a great feel for this game, but one thing I can tell you is that Spurrier's teams are always very well prepared for season openers, while O'Brien has sometimes been a slow starter. Also, the public will be on the favorite here because of the massive revenge factor and the pre-season hype regarding the Wolfpack. I have to think the value is with South Carolina with the number where it is.

 

[SuperSeanpicks]

Sports servive advice

Has anyone ever heard of David Banks as far as a sportsservice. His email is tiredoflosing.net. Was just trying to figure out if anyone knew who he was. Any advice would be much appreciated and thanks in advance for any info.


Thanks
Sean

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sports Gambling Hotline
Another comp play winner on Wednesday, as Cleveland-Detroit hold UNDER the posted price.

Now, 29-11-3 the last 43 days with our comp plays.

Tonight in college football, we are taking the points with the Aggies of Utah State as they head into Salt Lake City to face the Utes of Utah.

Just too many pieces missing from Utah's "dream season" last year for us to get excited about laying this wood.

Yes, the Utes did roll the Aggies 58-10 last season in Logan, but former Utah defensive coordinator Gary Anderson is quite familiar with what Utah brings to the table, and will have his State team inside of this roomy impost come final gun.

The visitor in the series is on a 4-0-1 spread run the last 5 tilts, and is 7-1-1 overall the last 9 series meetings.

Based on the trends listed above, we side with the "live dog" road team in this one.

Play on the Aggies plus the points.
2♦ UTAH STATE

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence MLB Bonus Play! - Thursday 9/3
Play On: Atlanta w/Hanson vs Nolasco

Note: the Braves and Marlins conclude their three-game series when Tommy Hanson matches serves with Ricky Nolasco in a mathcup of right-handers at Land Shark Stadium in Miami tonight. Hanson enters tonight's contest with 10 wins in his 15 career team starts. He's also in super-sharp KW form with 4 walks and 27 strikeouts in his last four efforts. Nolasco checks in at 1-3 with a 5.50 ERA in his last 4 team starts and 2-7 with a 5.29 ERA in his career team starts in this series. With that look for Atlanta to come up big here this evening.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pure Lock Free CFB Play for Thursday!
CFB: TROY @ BOWLING GREEN 7:00 PM EST
PLAY ON: TROY (-) PTS

 

[bobano]

Sportsmemo Thursday Plays:

Rob Veno CFB 20* Bluechip O/U (62% 20* Ws Last Year) - $49
Kick off the NCAA Football season with a 20* winner from Rob Veno. Last season, Rob's 20*s cashed in at a 62% clip. Don't leave this winner on the table (Thursday Night) just $49 and it is guaranteed to win or Rob's next NCAA Football report is yours free.

Alatex 20* NFLX Superplay (66% NFLX Since 08) - $49
Brent Crow of Alatex Sports is known as a preseason NFL guru with a 60%-plus winning record over the past five seasons and a 66% winning mark since 2008. Get his 20* NFLX Superplay on Thursday for $49 and it is guaranteed to win or his next NFLX report is free.