Sports Gambling Hotline
We gave you another Bonus Play winner on Wednesday, as Milwaukee came through in extra-innings.
Now 11-3 the last 2 weeks with our comp plays!
Daytime action today, and we expect to see Gavin Floyd and Carlos Zambrano matching pitches all afternoon long at Wrigley Field.
Both starters have been in the zone of late, as Floyd has allowed just 4 earned runs over his last 22 innings of mound work, while Zambrano has only allowed 2 runs in his last 21 innings of work!
We see a definite UNDER brewing in this one, as the Pale Hose have played UNDER in 6 of their last 9 games with a push thrown in the mix, while the Cubbies have held LOW in 8 of their last 10 overall, including their last 3.
Not much offense in this one, as the White Sox and Cubs play another UNDER at Wrigley this afternoon.
Play the LOW.
3? UNDER
We gave you another Bonus Play winner on Wednesday, as Milwaukee came through in extra-innings.
Now 11-3 the last 2 weeks with our comp plays!
Daytime action today, and we expect to see Gavin Floyd and Carlos Zambrano matching pitches all afternoon long at Wrigley Field.
Both starters have been in the zone of late, as Floyd has allowed just 4 earned runs over his last 22 innings of mound work, while Zambrano has only allowed 2 runs in his last 21 innings of work!
We see a definite UNDER brewing in this one, as the Pale Hose have played UNDER in 6 of their last 9 games with a push thrown in the mix, while the Cubbies have held LOW in 8 of their last 10 overall, including their last 3.
Not much offense in this one, as the White Sox and Cubs play another UNDER at Wrigley this afternoon.
Play the LOW.
3? UNDER
Marc Lawrence
MLB Bonus Play! Thursday 6/18
Play On: NY Mets w/Hernandez vs. Berken
The Mets wrap up their three-game visit to Baltimore tonight when Livan Hernandez takes on Jason Berken at Camden Yards. Hernandez enters tonight's contest with more wins in Interleague play (19) than any active pticher in the majors. Meanwhile, Berken checks in at 0-3 with an 8.63 ERA in his last three outings. With that, look for the Birds to drop to 3-13 at home on Thursdays in June here tonight.
MLB Bonus Play! Thursday 6/18
Play On: NY Mets w/Hernandez vs. Berken
The Mets wrap up their three-game visit to Baltimore tonight when Livan Hernandez takes on Jason Berken at Camden Yards. Hernandez enters tonight's contest with more wins in Interleague play (19) than any active pticher in the majors. Meanwhile, Berken checks in at 0-3 with an 8.63 ERA in his last three outings. With that, look for the Birds to drop to 3-13 at home on Thursdays in June here tonight.
Cajun Sports
MLB 2* Complimentary Selection- Thursday
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Minnesota Twins
Graded Selection: 2* Minnesota Twins -145
Wednesday's Interleague Matinee will decide this three-game set as each team has won a game by the score of 8 to 2 wonder the odds on game three with the same final score? The Pirates will send Zack Duke to the bump with his 2-2 W/L road record and ERA of 3.51 but in his six starts on the highway this season his team has only managed a record of 2-4 W/L when he takes bump. Over his last three outings he has posted a record of 2-1 W/L with an ERA of 4.29 with the two wins coming at home and the one loss coming on the road. The Pirates are 14-22 W/L on the highway this season and 18-37 W/L as a road underdog. Their record is much the same when facing teams from the American League during interleague play going 18-41 W/L their last 59 games. When Duke takes the hill on the road and is installed as an underdog of 150 or less the Pirates have only won three times out of their last twenty-one in this situation and Duke is only 3-11 W/L his last 14 when pitching on four days rest. We expect the Twins to bounce back against the Pirates and Duke on Thursday afternoon at the Metrodome and take game three as well as the series. The Twins have been a formidable opponent during interleague play posting a record of 45-13 W/L their last 58 interleague games. Much of that winning record was built facing foes from the National League Central with the Twins going 24-7 W/L their last 31 against those teams. Minnesota will hang their hopes on right-hander Nick Blackburn who is 2-0 W/L at home this season with an ERA of 3.06 the Twins are 4-1 in his five home starts this year. In Blackburn's last three trips to the bump he is 1-0 W/L with an ERA of 2.57 and the Twins are only 1-2 W/L in those three starts but all three came on the road. The Twins are 49-16 W/L installed as home favorite and a perfect 5-0 W/L the last five with Blackburn on the hill. Minnesota has also found success when facing lefthanders during interleague play posting a record of 12-4 W/L their last 16 in this situation. The Twins are 8-1 W/L (+8.5) versus an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better over the last 2 seasons while Pittsburgh is 7-28 W/L (-18.8) versus an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better since 1997. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Twins win over the Pirates in today's matchup by 1.8 runs and we also find support with our Pitcher Efficiency Ratings Index that has the Twins starter and bullpen 0.9 runs better than the Pirates starter and bullpen. Finally we have a MLB System that is active for today's contest and it tells us to Play On MLB AL home teams with a batting average of .265 to .279 against a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better during the month of June, 34-12 W/L +22.0 Units for 73.9 percent winners over the last five seasons and 4-2 W/L (+1.9 units) already this season. With significant fundamental, situational and technical support we will lay the chalk with the host here as the Twins take game three and the series from the Pirates on Thursday afternoon at the Metrodome.
Graded Selection: 2* Minnesota Twins 3 Pittsburgh Pirates 1
MLB 2* Complimentary Selection- Thursday
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Minnesota Twins
Graded Selection: 2* Minnesota Twins -145
Wednesday's Interleague Matinee will decide this three-game set as each team has won a game by the score of 8 to 2 wonder the odds on game three with the same final score? The Pirates will send Zack Duke to the bump with his 2-2 W/L road record and ERA of 3.51 but in his six starts on the highway this season his team has only managed a record of 2-4 W/L when he takes bump. Over his last three outings he has posted a record of 2-1 W/L with an ERA of 4.29 with the two wins coming at home and the one loss coming on the road. The Pirates are 14-22 W/L on the highway this season and 18-37 W/L as a road underdog. Their record is much the same when facing teams from the American League during interleague play going 18-41 W/L their last 59 games. When Duke takes the hill on the road and is installed as an underdog of 150 or less the Pirates have only won three times out of their last twenty-one in this situation and Duke is only 3-11 W/L his last 14 when pitching on four days rest. We expect the Twins to bounce back against the Pirates and Duke on Thursday afternoon at the Metrodome and take game three as well as the series. The Twins have been a formidable opponent during interleague play posting a record of 45-13 W/L their last 58 interleague games. Much of that winning record was built facing foes from the National League Central with the Twins going 24-7 W/L their last 31 against those teams. Minnesota will hang their hopes on right-hander Nick Blackburn who is 2-0 W/L at home this season with an ERA of 3.06 the Twins are 4-1 in his five home starts this year. In Blackburn's last three trips to the bump he is 1-0 W/L with an ERA of 2.57 and the Twins are only 1-2 W/L in those three starts but all three came on the road. The Twins are 49-16 W/L installed as home favorite and a perfect 5-0 W/L the last five with Blackburn on the hill. Minnesota has also found success when facing lefthanders during interleague play posting a record of 12-4 W/L their last 16 in this situation. The Twins are 8-1 W/L (+8.5) versus an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better over the last 2 seasons while Pittsburgh is 7-28 W/L (-18.8) versus an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better since 1997. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Twins win over the Pirates in today's matchup by 1.8 runs and we also find support with our Pitcher Efficiency Ratings Index that has the Twins starter and bullpen 0.9 runs better than the Pirates starter and bullpen. Finally we have a MLB System that is active for today's contest and it tells us to Play On MLB AL home teams with a batting average of .265 to .279 against a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better during the month of June, 34-12 W/L +22.0 Units for 73.9 percent winners over the last five seasons and 4-2 W/L (+1.9 units) already this season. With significant fundamental, situational and technical support we will lay the chalk with the host here as the Twins take game three and the series from the Pirates on Thursday afternoon at the Metrodome.
Graded Selection: 2* Minnesota Twins 3 Pittsburgh Pirates 1
LT Profits Sports Group
This is a rather low total in San Diego considering the pitching matchup today, as Geer has a 6.14 ERA and Morrow is a reliever that lacks stamina. Go Over this total in this spot.
Now we realize that Petco Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball, but this posted total for this matinee between the Seattle Mariners and the San Diego Padres still seems low to us given this pitching matchup.
Young Joshua Geer is taking the stat for the Padres, and he has been awful thus far this year. Geer is 1-2 with a poor 6.14 ERA in nine starts, and pitching in this spacious stadium has not helped him much as he still has a 5.34 ERA at home. Moreover, he has just one Quality Start in his last six starts, posting a disgusting 7.44 ERA over those outings.
His opponent is Brandon Morrow, who is a reliever by trade and is making just his second start of the year. Morrow went only three innings in his first start of the year last Saturday, and he is 0-3 with a 5.91 ERA and a horrible 1.92 WHIP overall this season including his 18.1 innings of work out of the bullpen.
Sure, the Under is 23-6-2 in the last 31 Mariners games overall, but most of those games had much higher posted totals than the eight hung up here. Given the poor form of Geer and the lack of stamina for Morrow, we do see at least nine runs being scored in this contest.
Free Pick: Mariners, Padres Over 8 (-105)
This is a rather low total in San Diego considering the pitching matchup today, as Geer has a 6.14 ERA and Morrow is a reliever that lacks stamina. Go Over this total in this spot.
Now we realize that Petco Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball, but this posted total for this matinee between the Seattle Mariners and the San Diego Padres still seems low to us given this pitching matchup.
Young Joshua Geer is taking the stat for the Padres, and he has been awful thus far this year. Geer is 1-2 with a poor 6.14 ERA in nine starts, and pitching in this spacious stadium has not helped him much as he still has a 5.34 ERA at home. Moreover, he has just one Quality Start in his last six starts, posting a disgusting 7.44 ERA over those outings.
His opponent is Brandon Morrow, who is a reliever by trade and is making just his second start of the year. Morrow went only three innings in his first start of the year last Saturday, and he is 0-3 with a 5.91 ERA and a horrible 1.92 WHIP overall this season including his 18.1 innings of work out of the bullpen.
Sure, the Under is 23-6-2 in the last 31 Mariners games overall, but most of those games had much higher posted totals than the eight hung up here. Given the poor form of Geer and the lack of stamina for Morrow, we do see at least nine runs being scored in this contest.
Free Pick: Mariners, Padres Over 8 (-105)
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Rays/Rockies UNDER 9
Odds makers are begging for action on the Over with this number, with these two good hitting clubs going head-to-head, but we won't fall into the trap. The Under is 26-7-2 in the Rockies last 35 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record, 7-2 in their last 9 interleague games overall, and 12-4 in their last 16 interleague home games. The Under is also 4-1 in Jimenez's last 5 interleague starts. On the other side of the equation, the Under is 5-1 in the Rays last 6 games following a loss, 9-2-1 in their last 12 vs. a team with a losing record, and 5-0 in Garza's last 5 road starts. Smart money goes on the Under.
1 Unit on Rays/Rockies UNDER 9
Odds makers are begging for action on the Over with this number, with these two good hitting clubs going head-to-head, but we won't fall into the trap. The Under is 26-7-2 in the Rockies last 35 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record, 7-2 in their last 9 interleague games overall, and 12-4 in their last 16 interleague home games. The Under is also 4-1 in Jimenez's last 5 interleague starts. On the other side of the equation, the Under is 5-1 in the Rays last 6 games following a loss, 9-2-1 in their last 12 vs. a team with a losing record, and 5-0 in Garza's last 5 road starts. Smart money goes on the Under.
Nick Parsons
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals +120
Luke Hochevar (2-2, 5.60 ERA) of the Royals, selected first overall in the 2006 draft, has won both starts since being recalled from Triple-A Omaha on June 6, and recorded his first career complete game Friday against visiting Cincinnati. The right-hander allowed three hits and walked one while tossing just 80 pitches in the 4-1 win. Arizona is 1-2 as a road favorite of -125 to -150 while the Royals are 3-2 as a home dog of +100 to +125! Good value here; play on the ROYALS!
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals +120
Luke Hochevar (2-2, 5.60 ERA) of the Royals, selected first overall in the 2006 draft, has won both starts since being recalled from Triple-A Omaha on June 6, and recorded his first career complete game Friday against visiting Cincinnati. The right-hander allowed three hits and walked one while tossing just 80 pitches in the 4-1 win. Arizona is 1-2 as a road favorite of -125 to -150 while the Royals are 3-2 as a home dog of +100 to +125! Good value here; play on the ROYALS!
Jr Tips
OAKLAND vs. LA DODGERS
Vin Mazzaro (2-1, 1.37 ERA) will make his fourth career start and help the visiting A's win their three-game series over the Los Angeles Dodgers in tonight's finale. Oakland snapped a four-game slide by holding on for a 5-4 win last night. The A's who have the worst batting average in the AL(235), had nine hits and scored more than four runs for just the second time in that 10-games. Oakland (28-36) will have Mazzaro who didn't allow a run over his first 17 2-3 innings go againstthe Dodgers Randy Wolf who after allowing 11 runs in his previous two outings, Wolf (3-2, 3.41) had yielded two hits in five scoreless innings until a light failure caused a one-hour, 41-minute delay and the Dodgers (43-23) won 3-1 in that game. Both these teams have struggled at the plate as Oakland finally scored over 3 runs last night. These two pitchers have been stellar of late as the first team to get 3 runs will win.
TAKE UNDER 7 1/2 RUNS
OAKLAND vs. LA DODGERS
Vin Mazzaro (2-1, 1.37 ERA) will make his fourth career start and help the visiting A's win their three-game series over the Los Angeles Dodgers in tonight's finale. Oakland snapped a four-game slide by holding on for a 5-4 win last night. The A's who have the worst batting average in the AL(235), had nine hits and scored more than four runs for just the second time in that 10-games. Oakland (28-36) will have Mazzaro who didn't allow a run over his first 17 2-3 innings go againstthe Dodgers Randy Wolf who after allowing 11 runs in his previous two outings, Wolf (3-2, 3.41) had yielded two hits in five scoreless innings until a light failure caused a one-hour, 41-minute delay and the Dodgers (43-23) won 3-1 in that game. Both these teams have struggled at the plate as Oakland finally scored over 3 runs last night. These two pitchers have been stellar of late as the first team to get 3 runs will win.
TAKE UNDER 7 1/2 RUNS
Matt Rivers
For Thursday on the diamond take the Mariners at PETCO.
Josh Geer is not bad and more than likely will last longer than former closer Brandon Morrow in this game but like I've said on numerous occasions and will repeat here, the Padres stink!
This San Diego team has had two very solid runs this season, the first two weeks of the season where they were something like 8-3 and then that 9 or so game winning streak about a month ago. I have no idea how that weak as heck offense had those streaks but that was probably just the result of how in a 162 game schedule every squad no matter how bad will have a few good runs.
The Padres have no offense at all outside of Adrian Gonzalez and in their vast and spacious ballpark once again should not be able to muster much of anything. Morrow is probably not conditioned to last many innings and that is never great as it is asking a bunch of mediocre relievers to fill in but even with that said the Friars couldn't hit you or me consistently and probably won't do any damager here either.
Seattle has had a better than expected season and with Ichiro, Beltre, Branyan, Lopez and a few others they do form the overall better squad today. No I can't fully trust Seattle as they are still not very good but all in all today I will definitely take a shot with the visitors from Safeco.
1♦ Mariners
For Thursday on the diamond take the Mariners at PETCO.
Josh Geer is not bad and more than likely will last longer than former closer Brandon Morrow in this game but like I've said on numerous occasions and will repeat here, the Padres stink!
This San Diego team has had two very solid runs this season, the first two weeks of the season where they were something like 8-3 and then that 9 or so game winning streak about a month ago. I have no idea how that weak as heck offense had those streaks but that was probably just the result of how in a 162 game schedule every squad no matter how bad will have a few good runs.
The Padres have no offense at all outside of Adrian Gonzalez and in their vast and spacious ballpark once again should not be able to muster much of anything. Morrow is probably not conditioned to last many innings and that is never great as it is asking a bunch of mediocre relievers to fill in but even with that said the Friars couldn't hit you or me consistently and probably won't do any damager here either.
Seattle has had a better than expected season and with Ichiro, Beltre, Branyan, Lopez and a few others they do form the overall better squad today. No I can't fully trust Seattle as they are still not very good but all in all today I will definitely take a shot with the visitors from Safeco.
1♦ Mariners
Bobby Maxwell
N.Y. Mets -105 at BALTIMORE
Today's FREE winner on the diamond comes to us from Baltimore where we are going to play the visiting Mets taking on the Orioles.
It seems like Livan Hernandez has been around forever and every couple years he starts out like a superstar and revives his career. He's done just that this year with the Mets, posting a 5-1 mark with a 4.33 ERA. We're going to back him tonight as the Mets will get the best of the Orioles in this one.
Hernandez got beat up in his last start, allowing six runs on seven hits in 5.1 innings of a 9-8 loss to the Yankees, but he was a stud in his previous four, allowing one run or less in three of the four, including a complete game win over the Nationals on May 26. He is 3-1 on the road this season and it doesn't bother this guy where he pitches.
For his career, Hernandez is 3-1 in five starts against Baltimore with a 3.94 ERA in 32 innings and he's 2-0 at Camden Yards in his only two starts there.
New York lost 6-4 on Wednesday but they will rebound tonight and get the offense going, giving Hernandez some good run support.
Young Jason Berken (1-3, 7.32 ERA) goes for the Orioles and this guy has been terrible lately. He gave up four runs on eight hits in 4.1 innings against the Braves on Friday in a 7-2 loss and on June 6 at Oakland he gave up nine runs on seven hits in 3.1 innings of a 9-4 defeat.
The Mets have won eight of the last 13 against the Orioles and they are 16-6 in their last 22 as a favorite. New York is also on runs of 9-4 in interleague road games and 5-1 in Hernandez's last six starts against teams with a losing record and 4-1 when he starts as a favorite. Meanwhile the Orioles are in a serious funk, including 3-9 in their last 12 overall, 18-45 in the third game of a series and 1-5 at home against teams with a losing road record.
We're playing the Mets today.
3♦ N.Y. METS
N.Y. Mets -105 at BALTIMORE
Today's FREE winner on the diamond comes to us from Baltimore where we are going to play the visiting Mets taking on the Orioles.
It seems like Livan Hernandez has been around forever and every couple years he starts out like a superstar and revives his career. He's done just that this year with the Mets, posting a 5-1 mark with a 4.33 ERA. We're going to back him tonight as the Mets will get the best of the Orioles in this one.
Hernandez got beat up in his last start, allowing six runs on seven hits in 5.1 innings of a 9-8 loss to the Yankees, but he was a stud in his previous four, allowing one run or less in three of the four, including a complete game win over the Nationals on May 26. He is 3-1 on the road this season and it doesn't bother this guy where he pitches.
For his career, Hernandez is 3-1 in five starts against Baltimore with a 3.94 ERA in 32 innings and he's 2-0 at Camden Yards in his only two starts there.
New York lost 6-4 on Wednesday but they will rebound tonight and get the offense going, giving Hernandez some good run support.
Young Jason Berken (1-3, 7.32 ERA) goes for the Orioles and this guy has been terrible lately. He gave up four runs on eight hits in 4.1 innings against the Braves on Friday in a 7-2 loss and on June 6 at Oakland he gave up nine runs on seven hits in 3.1 innings of a 9-4 defeat.
The Mets have won eight of the last 13 against the Orioles and they are 16-6 in their last 22 as a favorite. New York is also on runs of 9-4 in interleague road games and 5-1 in Hernandez's last six starts against teams with a losing record and 4-1 when he starts as a favorite. Meanwhile the Orioles are in a serious funk, including 3-9 in their last 12 overall, 18-45 in the third game of a series and 1-5 at home against teams with a losing road record.
We're playing the Mets today.
3♦ N.Y. METS
Karl Garrett
Detroit -110 at ST. LOUIS
Tonight I am going with the Tigers to avoid the sweep in St. Louis, and also put a halt to their untimely 4-game losing streak.
Detroit owns the pitching edge in a big way tonight, as Cards starter Joel Pineiro has been battered his last 4 trips to the hill - ALL losses!
Pineiro has allowed 31 hits, and 13 runs his last 22-plus innings of work, and worse still is the fact his team has lost 7 of his last 8 starts.
Compare that to Detroit's 7-1 record the last 8 times Rick Porcello has started for the Tigers, and Porcello's 3-1 mark the last 4 times he has started, and you get the feeling the Tigers are in the driver's seat in this game tonight.
Take Detroit to snap their skid, and avoid the broom out of the Gateway City tonight.
4♦ DETROIT
Detroit -110 at ST. LOUIS
Tonight I am going with the Tigers to avoid the sweep in St. Louis, and also put a halt to their untimely 4-game losing streak.
Detroit owns the pitching edge in a big way tonight, as Cards starter Joel Pineiro has been battered his last 4 trips to the hill - ALL losses!
Pineiro has allowed 31 hits, and 13 runs his last 22-plus innings of work, and worse still is the fact his team has lost 7 of his last 8 starts.
Compare that to Detroit's 7-1 record the last 8 times Rick Porcello has started for the Tigers, and Porcello's 3-1 mark the last 4 times he has started, and you get the feeling the Tigers are in the driver's seat in this game tonight.
Take Detroit to snap their skid, and avoid the broom out of the Gateway City tonight.
4♦ DETROIT
Scott Spreitzer
Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
I'm taking the Mariners over the Padres who have lost five in a row and an unbelievable 13 interleague games in a row. Josh Geer has been terrible this season with a 6.14 ERA overall including 5.34 when pitching in spacious Petco Park. In his last 10 starts, Geer has allowed 39 runs on 58 hits in only 52 innings. In his last outing, he gave up four home runs against the Angels and he's allowed 14 homers on the season. Brandon Morrow will be making his second start of the season and figures to throw about 80 pitches. With the game being rated about even the value lies with the visiting Mariners against a San Diego team that can't seem to beat an American League club.
Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
I'm taking the Mariners over the Padres who have lost five in a row and an unbelievable 13 interleague games in a row. Josh Geer has been terrible this season with a 6.14 ERA overall including 5.34 when pitching in spacious Petco Park. In his last 10 starts, Geer has allowed 39 runs on 58 hits in only 52 innings. In his last outing, he gave up four home runs against the Angels and he's allowed 14 homers on the season. Brandon Morrow will be making his second start of the season and figures to throw about 80 pitches. With the game being rated about even the value lies with the visiting Mariners against a San Diego team that can't seem to beat an American League club.
Jeff Benton
Chi. White Sox +145 over CHI. CUBS
For Thursday, we’ll head to Wrigley Field for a little daytime baseball and take the White Sox over the Cubs in the Windy City rivalry.
The Cubbies are starting Carlos Zambrano two days later than they had originally planned (he was slated to go in Monday’s game, which got rained out). Does the extra time off help a head case like Zambrano or hurt him? Tough to predict, but given the way he’s been pitching lately (very, very good), I’d imagine Big Z isn’t exactly hip to the disruption in his routine. That said, I know Zambrano’s got the kind of filthy stuff that can shut down any opponent on any day … but he’s also very volatile and it only takes one bad break from him to completely unravel, as the White Sox are well aware (more on that in a second).
But this play really doesn’t have much at all to do with Zambrano. It has to do with the fact that the Cubs simply cannot hit the baseball. Lou Pineilla’s club is batting under .220 over its last 11 games and has tallied a total of 10 runs in the last six games, losing five of those. Going a step further, they’ve scored three runs or fewer in eight of their last 11 games and managed two runs or less in 14 of the last 25 contests.
I can’t envision those ice-cold bats heating up tonight, as they’re facing Gavin Floyd, who has completely turned his season around over the past month. He’s delivered five straight quality starts, giving up a total of seven earned runs in 37 2/3 innings (that’s a 1.67 ERA). The Sox have won Floyd’s last three outings and four of the last five.
Quickly back to Zambrano. He’s given up 19 runs on 20 hits (including seven home runs) in his last four starts against the White Sox (6.18 ERA), including allowing seven runs in each of his last two starts against the Pale Hose in Wrigley Field.
The White Sox have won three in a row and are now on runs of 9-2 in interleague play and 6-1 on the road, while the Cubs have lost seven of eight against the American League and five of six as a favorite. Lot of value in the ‘dog here, so we’ll back the South Siders.
3♦ WHITE SOX
Chi. White Sox +145 over CHI. CUBS
For Thursday, we’ll head to Wrigley Field for a little daytime baseball and take the White Sox over the Cubs in the Windy City rivalry.
The Cubbies are starting Carlos Zambrano two days later than they had originally planned (he was slated to go in Monday’s game, which got rained out). Does the extra time off help a head case like Zambrano or hurt him? Tough to predict, but given the way he’s been pitching lately (very, very good), I’d imagine Big Z isn’t exactly hip to the disruption in his routine. That said, I know Zambrano’s got the kind of filthy stuff that can shut down any opponent on any day … but he’s also very volatile and it only takes one bad break from him to completely unravel, as the White Sox are well aware (more on that in a second).
But this play really doesn’t have much at all to do with Zambrano. It has to do with the fact that the Cubs simply cannot hit the baseball. Lou Pineilla’s club is batting under .220 over its last 11 games and has tallied a total of 10 runs in the last six games, losing five of those. Going a step further, they’ve scored three runs or fewer in eight of their last 11 games and managed two runs or less in 14 of the last 25 contests.
I can’t envision those ice-cold bats heating up tonight, as they’re facing Gavin Floyd, who has completely turned his season around over the past month. He’s delivered five straight quality starts, giving up a total of seven earned runs in 37 2/3 innings (that’s a 1.67 ERA). The Sox have won Floyd’s last three outings and four of the last five.
Quickly back to Zambrano. He’s given up 19 runs on 20 hits (including seven home runs) in his last four starts against the White Sox (6.18 ERA), including allowing seven runs in each of his last two starts against the Pale Hose in Wrigley Field.
The White Sox have won three in a row and are now on runs of 9-2 in interleague play and 6-1 on the road, while the Cubs have lost seven of eight against the American League and five of six as a favorite. Lot of value in the ‘dog here, so we’ll back the South Siders.
3♦ WHITE SOX
Chris Jordan
Detroit -105 at ST. LOUIS
Play the Tigers with upstart rookie right-hander Rick Porcello, who is 7-4 with a 3.71 ERA on the season, and who we’ll bank on to help the Tigers avoid getting swept in this Interleague series the Cardinals.
I know the Tigers have dropped four straight and are now 4-6 on this current road trip, but I like this kid Porcello, and think he has a good shot at keeping the Redbirds off-balance with the arsenal he’s shown plenty of promise well ahead of his originally planned schedule. He wasn’t supposed to be in the bigs until 2010, but the way the rotation faltered early on, upper management moved him into the rotation and he’s responded well.
Although Detroit has scored a total of 19 runs in its last seven games, I’m thinking it will come to life against Joel Pineiro, who has lost both his June starts, four straight and seven of his last eight. Some may say he’s pitching well, but other than a complete-game shutout of the Cubs on May 19, he’s flat-out not getting it done. Fact is, neither are the Cardinals. Prior to winning the first two games of this series, they had lost seven of nine overall and four straight at home.
On the other hand, Detroit is still on hot streaks of 45-21 in Interleague play, 13-8 in Interleague road games and 23-13 against the N.L. Central.
Take a shot here, as the Tigers should get this series finale with ease.
1♦ TIGERS
Detroit -105 at ST. LOUIS
Play the Tigers with upstart rookie right-hander Rick Porcello, who is 7-4 with a 3.71 ERA on the season, and who we’ll bank on to help the Tigers avoid getting swept in this Interleague series the Cardinals.
I know the Tigers have dropped four straight and are now 4-6 on this current road trip, but I like this kid Porcello, and think he has a good shot at keeping the Redbirds off-balance with the arsenal he’s shown plenty of promise well ahead of his originally planned schedule. He wasn’t supposed to be in the bigs until 2010, but the way the rotation faltered early on, upper management moved him into the rotation and he’s responded well.
Although Detroit has scored a total of 19 runs in its last seven games, I’m thinking it will come to life against Joel Pineiro, who has lost both his June starts, four straight and seven of his last eight. Some may say he’s pitching well, but other than a complete-game shutout of the Cubs on May 19, he’s flat-out not getting it done. Fact is, neither are the Cardinals. Prior to winning the first two games of this series, they had lost seven of nine overall and four straight at home.
On the other hand, Detroit is still on hot streaks of 45-21 in Interleague play, 13-8 in Interleague road games and 23-13 against the N.L. Central.
Take a shot here, as the Tigers should get this series finale with ease.
1♦ TIGERS
Scott Delaney
Now on a 18-8-1 run with the complimentary releases after scoring with the Over in the Pirates/Twins game last night.
Nothing fancy here guys, as we're just looking to keep this stellar winning streak alive with complimentary releases, as we take the Mets over the Orioles, and will list both pitchers – New York’s Livan Hernandez and Baltimore’s Jason Berken.
Though he didn’t become completely unraveled until reliever Jon Switzer allowed both of his inherited runners to score, Hernandez put in a hard day’s work by tossing 5-1/3 innings last Friday against the crosstown-rival Yankees. He scattered seven hits and six runs in all, including three home runs – but, that was one more than he had served up in his previous seven outings combined.
Now, I realize Camden Yards is long-ball friendly, but Hernandez is 2-0 with a 3.95 ERA in his career there. Thus, confidence accompanies with him when he toes the rubber tonight.
As for Berken, he labored through his second straight rough outing in his last start. The rather bleak right-hander lasted a mere 4-1/3 innings against Atlanta, allowing four earned runs on eight hits. He got into trouble early by allowing a two-run home run in the first inning and has seen his ERA jump from 2.25 at the end of May to 7.32 in two starts in June.
Play the cheap price with the Mets and be sure to list both pitchers in this one.
NEW YORK METS
Now on a 18-8-1 run with the complimentary releases after scoring with the Over in the Pirates/Twins game last night.
Nothing fancy here guys, as we're just looking to keep this stellar winning streak alive with complimentary releases, as we take the Mets over the Orioles, and will list both pitchers – New York’s Livan Hernandez and Baltimore’s Jason Berken.
Though he didn’t become completely unraveled until reliever Jon Switzer allowed both of his inherited runners to score, Hernandez put in a hard day’s work by tossing 5-1/3 innings last Friday against the crosstown-rival Yankees. He scattered seven hits and six runs in all, including three home runs – but, that was one more than he had served up in his previous seven outings combined.
Now, I realize Camden Yards is long-ball friendly, but Hernandez is 2-0 with a 3.95 ERA in his career there. Thus, confidence accompanies with him when he toes the rubber tonight.
As for Berken, he labored through his second straight rough outing in his last start. The rather bleak right-hander lasted a mere 4-1/3 innings against Atlanta, allowing four earned runs on eight hits. He got into trouble early by allowing a two-run home run in the first inning and has seen his ERA jump from 2.25 at the end of May to 7.32 in two starts in June.
Play the cheap price with the Mets and be sure to list both pitchers in this one.
NEW YORK METS
Ben Burns
Florida Marlins @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Under 9.5
After these teams combined for 10 runs in Tuesday's series opener, yesterday's game finished with just seven runs. This evening's finale has the makings of another relatively low-scoring affair.
Nolasco's overall numbers are still pretty ugly. However, he seems to be turning it around as he's off back to back quality starts. He'll have the advantage of starting against Boston for the first time.
Lester, meanwhile, has an outstanding 1.23 ERA and 0.626 WHIP over his last three starts. That's downright domination! During that stretch, he's allowed a mere seven hits, none of them home runs, through 22 innings. He's also recorded a very impressive 34 K's in those 22 innings. Lester's lone start vs. Florida came back on 7/2/2006 and finished with a score of 4-3.
The Florida bullpen has been excellent on the road and the Red Sox relievers have been terrific, regardless of venue. Consider the Under
Florida Marlins @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Under 9.5
After these teams combined for 10 runs in Tuesday's series opener, yesterday's game finished with just seven runs. This evening's finale has the makings of another relatively low-scoring affair.
Nolasco's overall numbers are still pretty ugly. However, he seems to be turning it around as he's off back to back quality starts. He'll have the advantage of starting against Boston for the first time.
Lester, meanwhile, has an outstanding 1.23 ERA and 0.626 WHIP over his last three starts. That's downright domination! During that stretch, he's allowed a mere seven hits, none of them home runs, through 22 innings. He's also recorded a very impressive 34 K's in those 22 innings. Lester's lone start vs. Florida came back on 7/2/2006 and finished with a score of 4-3.
The Florida bullpen has been excellent on the road and the Red Sox relievers have been terrific, regardless of venue. Consider the Under
Tom Freese
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Under
Los Angeles is 11-4 UNDER their last 15 Interleague games and they are 8-3 UNDER their last 11 games vs. righty starters. The Dodgers are 4-0 UNDER in Game 3 of a series. Oakland is 26-12-1 UNDER on the road vs. lefty starters and they are 7-3-1 UNDER their last 11 games as underdogs. The Athletics are 8-3 UNDER after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game. PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Wolf vs. Mazzaro)
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Under
Los Angeles is 11-4 UNDER their last 15 Interleague games and they are 8-3 UNDER their last 11 games vs. righty starters. The Dodgers are 4-0 UNDER in Game 3 of a series. Oakland is 26-12-1 UNDER on the road vs. lefty starters and they are 7-3-1 UNDER their last 11 games as underdogs. The Athletics are 8-3 UNDER after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game. PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Wolf vs. Mazzaro)
Big Al McMordie
Bonus Play
Looking for offense today? The Rays and Rockies hook up in an afternoon contest at Coors Field in Colorado that should provide plenty of runs from both teams.
Our Thursday afternoon MLB selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays and Colorado Rockies going over the total at Coors Field in Denver.
Who's the most underrated starter in the National League? It just might be tonight's Colorado starter, righthander Ubaldo Jimenez. On a team that has an overall record of 31-33, Jimenez is 6-4 with a 3.92 ERA and 69 strikeouts in 82+ innings.
In his last start, the 25-year old Dominican threw just his second career complete game in beating Seattle at home. It hasn't hurt that Jimenez has gotten very strong run support in most of his starts, especially at home. In fact, in his five starts at Coors Field, Jimenez has gotten an incredible 40 runs of support from his teammates.
This game is a very interesting matchup because it features the two surprise teams that made it to the World Series the last two seasons. This is the first series between these two since 2007, and they're picking up where they left off which means plenty of runs.
In the 2007 series, all of the games went comfortably over the total and that pattern held up in the first game of this series as the two teams scored 16 runs before settling down a bit in the game last night and only plating eight runs.
Rays starter Matt Garza has had a good season, but the Rays may be a little concerned because Garza has not gotten past the sixth inning in either of his last two starts and Coors Field is a particularly tough place if that were to happen again this afternoon. Take the Over.
Free Pick: Rays-Rockies Over 9 (-120)
Bonus Play
Looking for offense today? The Rays and Rockies hook up in an afternoon contest at Coors Field in Colorado that should provide plenty of runs from both teams.
Our Thursday afternoon MLB selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays and Colorado Rockies going over the total at Coors Field in Denver.
Who's the most underrated starter in the National League? It just might be tonight's Colorado starter, righthander Ubaldo Jimenez. On a team that has an overall record of 31-33, Jimenez is 6-4 with a 3.92 ERA and 69 strikeouts in 82+ innings.
In his last start, the 25-year old Dominican threw just his second career complete game in beating Seattle at home. It hasn't hurt that Jimenez has gotten very strong run support in most of his starts, especially at home. In fact, in his five starts at Coors Field, Jimenez has gotten an incredible 40 runs of support from his teammates.
This game is a very interesting matchup because it features the two surprise teams that made it to the World Series the last two seasons. This is the first series between these two since 2007, and they're picking up where they left off which means plenty of runs.
In the 2007 series, all of the games went comfortably over the total and that pattern held up in the first game of this series as the two teams scored 16 runs before settling down a bit in the game last night and only plating eight runs.
Rays starter Matt Garza has had a good season, but the Rays may be a little concerned because Garza has not gotten past the sixth inning in either of his last two starts and Coors Field is a particularly tough place if that were to happen again this afternoon. Take the Over.
Free Pick: Rays-Rockies Over 9 (-120)
