Hey,
Will someone please help me out.
Whose plays are worth following now?
Right after baseball season started, I would pick my plays Teddy's Big Tickets, Stan Sharp, Chris James(i think), and Steve Merril and alot of Teddy's regular plays.
But now all I see is Teddy posted and I don't know anything about any other guys and their picks.
I could really use some advice. Will someone please tell me who has a good record and is worth following over a period to make money.
I just need to make a little bit more money and PROMISE I will start buying plays from someone(someone just needs to tell me whose the best person to buy)
As for now, someone please give me some good info, I don't know whats happened to this forum since Basketball ended, I have no idea where Steve McQueen is and I need some advice!
Much appreciated to anyone that will take me under their wing right now and give me some good info. I REALLY WANT TO MAKE SOME MONEY FOR ME AND OTHER PEOPLE THIS MLB SEASON, AND I WILL START BUYING SOME PLAYS, BUT 1ST THINGS 1st
4WhatItsWorth
Will someone please help me out.
Whose plays are worth following now?
Right after baseball season started, I would pick my plays Teddy's Big Tickets, Stan Sharp, Chris James(i think), and Steve Merril and alot of Teddy's regular plays.
But now all I see is Teddy posted and I don't know anything about any other guys and their picks.
I could really use some advice. Will someone please tell me who has a good record and is worth following over a period to make money.
I just need to make a little bit more money and PROMISE I will start buying plays from someone(someone just needs to tell me whose the best person to buy)
As for now, someone please give me some good info, I don't know whats happened to this forum since Basketball ended, I have no idea where Steve McQueen is and I need some advice!
Much appreciated to anyone that will take me under their wing right now and give me some good info. I REALLY WANT TO MAKE SOME MONEY FOR ME AND OTHER PEOPLE THIS MLB SEASON, AND I WILL START BUYING SOME PLAYS, BUT 1ST THINGS 1st
4WhatItsWorth
Handicapping MLB Bullpens
By John Ryan
In my opinion, and based on solid research, bettors often overlook the importance of the bullpen when making a bet. One mistake is that they assume that the starter will continue his three-game trend into the current start. That many times does not occur and when a strong starter struggles, the bullpen is often times the reason a team can still win the game.
The Dodgers have the best ERA in baseball at 3.57. Their bullpen sports a 3.31 ERA and ranks 5th in MLB. The LAD bullpen win/loss record is 18-7, which means that in 18 games they held the opponent and allowed the offense to score runs and win the game. In only 7 games did they fail to hold a tie or lead.
The next best in MLB are the Yankees, Philadelphia and Florida with 14 wins. The bottom five is Washington with just 5 wins and 22 losses, Colorado at 6-10, the Reds at 6-7, KC at 6-11, and Anaheim at 7-13.
Wins are important to say the least, but now that we are about a third of the way through the season we need to identify those teams with tired arms in the bullpen. Based on innings pitched, Baltimore leads the way with 219.2, Florida with 219.2, LAD with 217.1, Houston with 213.2, and Philadelphia with 213 innings pitched. The least used bullpens are: KC at 167.0, Pittsburgh at 171.2, the Cubs at 172.1, Texas at 174, and LAA at 174.2 innings pitched. Not surprising that KC has had seven complete games by their starters and that is the dominant reason why the bullpen has not been overused. Not surprising too is that LAA and Texas have had five complete games thrown by their starters.
All of this data leads us to an often used scouting stat called VORP. VORP is simply Value Over Replacement Player. Offensively, it quantifies the number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense. For pitching it reflects and quantifies how dominant a pitcher can be. For example, Zack Greinke ranks number 1 in baseball with a 40.3 VORP score. Jered Weaver is 2nd, then Roy Halladay, Dan Haren, Cliff Lee, Edwin Jackson, Kevin Milwood, Matt Cain, Josh Johnson, and Johnny Cueto round out the top-10. It’s interesting that no DODGER appears until 11th (Billingsley) and Ramon Tracosco, who is a reliever.
In summary, take the list of starters that are in the top-10 in VORP and then determine if the bullpen is solid - not having thrown 20 or more innings in the past 7 games - and you will have the beginning of a strong play. I would also suggest finding this pair of qualifying variables when their teams are on the road. You will get far greater value from the money line in road games when backed by this pair of variables.
So, what I have attempted to show here is that you cannot afford to just look at what I call the “flash” stats. The best example is looking at the top rated pitching staff in MLB - the Dodgers. Those are stats based on past performance only. You must look at and tear apart the data to see who is available to pitch out of the bullpen and what value the manager has placed on them on the season. If a key set-up pitcher is not going to be available because they have pitched the past 3 games, then the bullpen strength is greatly reduced.
Boston had just played four games against the Yankees and their closer Pappelbon had closed the last three games. They then traveled to Philadelphia to begin a three-game series. In Game 1, Boston had to piece their way to a 13 inning win knowing that Pappelbon was not going to be available. Now, he did warm-up, but once the Sox got a multi-run lead in the 13th, he was shut down. The thing to remember is simple. Had he pitched in four straight games you could pencil in the fact that he would not have pitched for a minimum of 2 games or 2 days. These are the important points to access.
By John Ryan
In my opinion, and based on solid research, bettors often overlook the importance of the bullpen when making a bet. One mistake is that they assume that the starter will continue his three-game trend into the current start. That many times does not occur and when a strong starter struggles, the bullpen is often times the reason a team can still win the game.
The Dodgers have the best ERA in baseball at 3.57. Their bullpen sports a 3.31 ERA and ranks 5th in MLB. The LAD bullpen win/loss record is 18-7, which means that in 18 games they held the opponent and allowed the offense to score runs and win the game. In only 7 games did they fail to hold a tie or lead.
The next best in MLB are the Yankees, Philadelphia and Florida with 14 wins. The bottom five is Washington with just 5 wins and 22 losses, Colorado at 6-10, the Reds at 6-7, KC at 6-11, and Anaheim at 7-13.
Wins are important to say the least, but now that we are about a third of the way through the season we need to identify those teams with tired arms in the bullpen. Based on innings pitched, Baltimore leads the way with 219.2, Florida with 219.2, LAD with 217.1, Houston with 213.2, and Philadelphia with 213 innings pitched. The least used bullpens are: KC at 167.0, Pittsburgh at 171.2, the Cubs at 172.1, Texas at 174, and LAA at 174.2 innings pitched. Not surprising that KC has had seven complete games by their starters and that is the dominant reason why the bullpen has not been overused. Not surprising too is that LAA and Texas have had five complete games thrown by their starters.
All of this data leads us to an often used scouting stat called VORP. VORP is simply Value Over Replacement Player. Offensively, it quantifies the number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense. For pitching it reflects and quantifies how dominant a pitcher can be. For example, Zack Greinke ranks number 1 in baseball with a 40.3 VORP score. Jered Weaver is 2nd, then Roy Halladay, Dan Haren, Cliff Lee, Edwin Jackson, Kevin Milwood, Matt Cain, Josh Johnson, and Johnny Cueto round out the top-10. It’s interesting that no DODGER appears until 11th (Billingsley) and Ramon Tracosco, who is a reliever.
In summary, take the list of starters that are in the top-10 in VORP and then determine if the bullpen is solid - not having thrown 20 or more innings in the past 7 games - and you will have the beginning of a strong play. I would also suggest finding this pair of qualifying variables when their teams are on the road. You will get far greater value from the money line in road games when backed by this pair of variables.
So, what I have attempted to show here is that you cannot afford to just look at what I call the “flash” stats. The best example is looking at the top rated pitching staff in MLB - the Dodgers. Those are stats based on past performance only. You must look at and tear apart the data to see who is available to pitch out of the bullpen and what value the manager has placed on them on the season. If a key set-up pitcher is not going to be available because they have pitched the past 3 games, then the bullpen strength is greatly reduced.
Boston had just played four games against the Yankees and their closer Pappelbon had closed the last three games. They then traveled to Philadelphia to begin a three-game series. In Game 1, Boston had to piece their way to a 13 inning win knowing that Pappelbon was not going to be available. Now, he did warm-up, but once the Sox got a multi-run lead in the 13th, he was shut down. The thing to remember is simple. Had he pitched in four straight games you could pencil in the fact that he would not have pitched for a minimum of 2 games or 2 days. These are the important points to access.
DUNKEL
Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs
The Cubs look to bounce back from yesterday's loss to their crosstown rival and take advantage of the Chisox 0-4 record in Gavin Floyd's last 4 road starts. The Cubs are the pick (-170) according to Dunkel, which has the Cubs favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-170).
Game 951-952: Atlanta at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hanson) 14.054; Cincinnati (Maloney) 13.059
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+100); Over
Game 953-954: Washington at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Stammen) 14.444; NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 15.424
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-325); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-325); Under
Game 955-956: Toronto at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Mills) 16.209; Philadelphia (Blanton) 14.541
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-170); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+160); Under
Game 957-958: Pittsburgh at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Duke) 14.971; Minnesota (Blackburn) 16.712
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-145); Over
Game 959-960: Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 14.717; Cubs (Zambrano) 15.936
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-170); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-170); N/A
Game 961-962: Tampa Bay at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Garza) 17.898; Colorado (Jimenez) 16.660
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115); Over
Game 963-964: Seattle at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Morrow) 14.405; San Diego (Geer) 14.196
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Diego (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+100); Under
Game 965-966: NY Mets at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Hernandez) 14.736; Baltimore (Berken) 15.818
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-130); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+120); Over
Game 967-968: Florida at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Nolasco) 16.368; Boston (Lester) 15.180
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-240); 10
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+220); Under
Game 969-970: Houston at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Backe) 14.258; Texas (Padilla) 15.276
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-180); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-180); Under
Game 971-972: Arizona at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Haren) 14.321; Kansas City (Hochevar) 15.679
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+135); Over
Game 973-974: Detroit at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 13.747; St. Louis (Pineiro) 15.146
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+105); Over
Game 975-976: Oakland at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Mazzaro) 14.969; LA Dodgers (Wolf) 16.206
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodges (-140); Under
Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs
The Cubs look to bounce back from yesterday's loss to their crosstown rival and take advantage of the Chisox 0-4 record in Gavin Floyd's last 4 road starts. The Cubs are the pick (-170) according to Dunkel, which has the Cubs favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-170).
Game 951-952: Atlanta at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hanson) 14.054; Cincinnati (Maloney) 13.059
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+100); Over
Game 953-954: Washington at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Stammen) 14.444; NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 15.424
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-325); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-325); Under
Game 955-956: Toronto at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Mills) 16.209; Philadelphia (Blanton) 14.541
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-170); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+160); Under
Game 957-958: Pittsburgh at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Duke) 14.971; Minnesota (Blackburn) 16.712
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-145); Over
Game 959-960: Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 14.717; Cubs (Zambrano) 15.936
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-170); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-170); N/A
Game 961-962: Tampa Bay at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Garza) 17.898; Colorado (Jimenez) 16.660
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115); Over
Game 963-964: Seattle at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Morrow) 14.405; San Diego (Geer) 14.196
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Diego (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+100); Under
Game 965-966: NY Mets at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Hernandez) 14.736; Baltimore (Berken) 15.818
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-130); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+120); Over
Game 967-968: Florida at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Nolasco) 16.368; Boston (Lester) 15.180
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-240); 10
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+220); Under
Game 969-970: Houston at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Backe) 14.258; Texas (Padilla) 15.276
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-180); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-180); Under
Game 971-972: Arizona at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Haren) 14.321; Kansas City (Hochevar) 15.679
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+135); Over
Game 973-974: Detroit at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 13.747; St. Louis (Pineiro) 15.146
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+105); Over
Game 975-976: Oakland at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Mazzaro) 14.969; LA Dodgers (Wolf) 16.206
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodges (-140); Under
Rivergold, you are absolutely right. NEVER bet a pick from these guys if you don't know anything or don't know how to cap yourself.
To win, it is very simple .. you need to be a pretty decent capper yourself and if you like a pick from a good capper ... than, you go big. Following these guys with closed eyes is simply a disaster.
There are some good ones ... but so few imo.
GL
Bob Harvey
Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies o9.0 (-110)
Thu Jun 18 '09 3:10p
Two of baseball’s hottest teams square off in the Mile High city as the the Rockies host the Devil Rays in the series finale at Coors Field.
Colorado has won 12 of 13 games while Tampa Bay has taken six of it’s last seven and are 12-5 over their past 17 outings. BOTH teams are getting it down offensively The Rays lead the majors with 382 runs and boast a lineup of bashers from Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria to Ben Zobrist and B.J. Upton. Carl Crawford has been the table setter all season long hitting .314.
The Rockies improvement at the plate and on the mound has moved them to within sniffing distance of the wild card race in the National League.
Since Jim Tracy replaced Clint Hurdle as manager on May 29th, the Rockies are averaging over six runs per game and are hitting just under .300 as a team (.298). Familiar names and faces like Todd Helton, Brad Hawpe and Ian Stewart have led the charge. Hawpe is having an all-star season. He’s hitting .347 with 47 rbi’s.
Matt Garza gets the start today for the Rays and while he’s 4-4 with a respectable 3.63 ERA, he’s struggled in his last two starts failing to make it out of the sixth inning. Opposing Garza will be Ubaldo Jiminez who is a big reason why the Colorado pitching staff has done an about face. The Rockies have been outstanding during their streak posting a 3.31ERA.
Jimenez has been a big part of that success. While Garza has been off in HIS last two starts, Jiminez has won two straight games including his second career complete game. Overall Jiminez is 5-6 with a 3.92 ERA. MLB scouts will tell you he’s got what it takes to become a top-tier pitcher but only time will tell if he can live up to expectations.
The right-hander, who has battled problems with control and efficiency in the past, has thrown 17 innings while winning his last two starts, pitching his second career complete game in Friday's 6-4 win over Seattle.
In what is virtually a “pick ‘em” game, betters have a couple of ways to go here. Ride the home team that’s streaking to a tune of 12-1 or favor the AL squad that scored 12 runs on Tuesday night. Keep in mind Colorado is 17-9-1 to the OVER at home this season but both the Rocks’ and the Rays are just 2-3 to the high side in there last five games.
This is one of the toughest games on the board to cap. I still think though despite Colorado’s 12-1 streak, Tampa Bay is the better team and should take the rubber match of this three game series.
One final note: Jiminez is just 1-3 in day games with an ERA of 5.34. He’s allowed 29 hits in 28.2 innings. If he’s not spot on with his control today, The Devil Rays and they’re power packed lineup will make him pay. This figures to be one of those days where runs not pitching will be at a premium. Take the balls out of the humidor and lets get ready to go.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies o9.0 (-110)
Thu Jun 18 '09 3:10p
Two of baseball’s hottest teams square off in the Mile High city as the the Rockies host the Devil Rays in the series finale at Coors Field.
Colorado has won 12 of 13 games while Tampa Bay has taken six of it’s last seven and are 12-5 over their past 17 outings. BOTH teams are getting it down offensively The Rays lead the majors with 382 runs and boast a lineup of bashers from Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria to Ben Zobrist and B.J. Upton. Carl Crawford has been the table setter all season long hitting .314.
The Rockies improvement at the plate and on the mound has moved them to within sniffing distance of the wild card race in the National League.
Since Jim Tracy replaced Clint Hurdle as manager on May 29th, the Rockies are averaging over six runs per game and are hitting just under .300 as a team (.298). Familiar names and faces like Todd Helton, Brad Hawpe and Ian Stewart have led the charge. Hawpe is having an all-star season. He’s hitting .347 with 47 rbi’s.
Matt Garza gets the start today for the Rays and while he’s 4-4 with a respectable 3.63 ERA, he’s struggled in his last two starts failing to make it out of the sixth inning. Opposing Garza will be Ubaldo Jiminez who is a big reason why the Colorado pitching staff has done an about face. The Rockies have been outstanding during their streak posting a 3.31ERA.
Jimenez has been a big part of that success. While Garza has been off in HIS last two starts, Jiminez has won two straight games including his second career complete game. Overall Jiminez is 5-6 with a 3.92 ERA. MLB scouts will tell you he’s got what it takes to become a top-tier pitcher but only time will tell if he can live up to expectations.
The right-hander, who has battled problems with control and efficiency in the past, has thrown 17 innings while winning his last two starts, pitching his second career complete game in Friday's 6-4 win over Seattle.
In what is virtually a “pick ‘em” game, betters have a couple of ways to go here. Ride the home team that’s streaking to a tune of 12-1 or favor the AL squad that scored 12 runs on Tuesday night. Keep in mind Colorado is 17-9-1 to the OVER at home this season but both the Rocks’ and the Rays are just 2-3 to the high side in there last five games.
This is one of the toughest games on the board to cap. I still think though despite Colorado’s 12-1 streak, Tampa Bay is the better team and should take the rubber match of this three game series.
One final note: Jiminez is just 1-3 in day games with an ERA of 5.34. He’s allowed 29 hits in 28.2 innings. If he’s not spot on with his control today, The Devil Rays and they’re power packed lineup will make him pay. This figures to be one of those days where runs not pitching will be at a premium. Take the balls out of the humidor and lets get ready to go.
Jimmy Moore
Sport: MLB
Game: Arizona @ Kansas City
Date/Time: 6/18/2009 8:10PM EST
Pick: Arizona with Haren -140
Reason: Take the Diamondbacks behind their stud starter Haren to get the win at struggling Kansas City on Thursday night. No play rated high enough for a guaranteed selection on Thursday night but be sure to keep your eye out for Jimmy's guaranteed baseball plays all season long!
Sport: MLB
Game: Arizona @ Kansas City
Date/Time: 6/18/2009 8:10PM EST
Pick: Arizona with Haren -140
Reason: Take the Diamondbacks behind their stud starter Haren to get the win at struggling Kansas City on Thursday night. No play rated high enough for a guaranteed selection on Thursday night but be sure to keep your eye out for Jimmy's guaranteed baseball plays all season long!
