1st Post
Hello all.....odd way to make my first post, but it seems like this has snowballed a bit, and the way I read it, is not being followed correctly.
Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs.
(Sagarin ranking, Sagarin SOS ranking)
1. Wake Forest (32, 4 SOS) over Navy (39, 74 SOS) - WINNER
2. South Florida (49, 59 SOS) over Memphis (100, 117 SOS) - WINNER
3. Arizona (41, 78 SOS) over BYU (23, 83 SOS) - WINNER
4. TCU (9, 76 SOS) over Boise State (11, 113 SOS)
5. Notre Dame (58, 36 SOS) over Hawaii (82, 72 SOS)
6. NC State (47, 3 SOS) over Rutgers (38, 67 SOS)
7. Missouri (13, 30 SOS) over Northwestern (37, 64 SOS)
8. Maryland (50, 21 SOS) over Nevada (60, 88 SOS)
9. Rice (63, 101 SOS) over Western Michigan (57, 109 SOS)
10. Air Force (48, 77 SOS) over Houston (65, 102 SOS)
11. Kansas (33, 23 SOS) over Minnesota (66, 69 SOS)
12. USC (5, 38 SOS) over Penn State (6, 61 SOS)
13. Virginia Tech (15, 13 SOS) over Cincinnati (62, 28 SOS)
14. Kentucky (67, 73 SOS) over East Carolina (52, 75 SOS)
15. Alabama (7, 58 SOS) over Utah (8, 70 SOS)
16. Connecticut (42, 40 SOS) over Buffalo (55, 82 SOS)
17. Ball State (36, 116 SOS) over Tulsa (56, 122 SOS)
Criteria includes:
1. Team to fade MUST be ranked on the Sagarin top 60.
> Looking at the above this removes Memphis, Hawaii, Houston, Minnesota, & Cincy as teams to fade.
2. Fade every team whose SOS is 60 or worse, unless the team they are playing is even worse
> This should eliminate Arizona, TCU, Rice, Air Force, Kentucky & Ball St - Yes the teams they play are worse, but the system says you fade EVERY team, which IMO cancels these plays out.
The system is 1-0 with a win on Wake, fading Navy. Next games would be to fade Rutgers, NW, Nevada, Penn St & Utah.
Cincy is not a play as the SOS is not over 60.
In the end, if you follow-this, you are basically stating that Vegas did not take into account SOS when they made the line. I can't see this being a year in, year out winner. Happy bowling to all, and to all a good night.
Hello all.....odd way to make my first post, but it seems like this has snowballed a bit, and the way I read it, is not being followed correctly.
Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs.
(Sagarin ranking, Sagarin SOS ranking)
1. Wake Forest (32, 4 SOS) over Navy (39, 74 SOS) - WINNER
2. South Florida (49, 59 SOS) over Memphis (100, 117 SOS) - WINNER
3. Arizona (41, 78 SOS) over BYU (23, 83 SOS) - WINNER
4. TCU (9, 76 SOS) over Boise State (11, 113 SOS)
5. Notre Dame (58, 36 SOS) over Hawaii (82, 72 SOS)
6. NC State (47, 3 SOS) over Rutgers (38, 67 SOS)
7. Missouri (13, 30 SOS) over Northwestern (37, 64 SOS)
8. Maryland (50, 21 SOS) over Nevada (60, 88 SOS)
9. Rice (63, 101 SOS) over Western Michigan (57, 109 SOS)
10. Air Force (48, 77 SOS) over Houston (65, 102 SOS)
11. Kansas (33, 23 SOS) over Minnesota (66, 69 SOS)
12. USC (5, 38 SOS) over Penn State (6, 61 SOS)
13. Virginia Tech (15, 13 SOS) over Cincinnati (62, 28 SOS)
14. Kentucky (67, 73 SOS) over East Carolina (52, 75 SOS)
15. Alabama (7, 58 SOS) over Utah (8, 70 SOS)
16. Connecticut (42, 40 SOS) over Buffalo (55, 82 SOS)
17. Ball State (36, 116 SOS) over Tulsa (56, 122 SOS)
Criteria includes:
1. Team to fade MUST be ranked on the Sagarin top 60.
> Looking at the above this removes Memphis, Hawaii, Houston, Minnesota, & Cincy as teams to fade.
2. Fade every team whose SOS is 60 or worse, unless the team they are playing is even worse
> This should eliminate Arizona, TCU, Rice, Air Force, Kentucky & Ball St - Yes the teams they play are worse, but the system says you fade EVERY team, which IMO cancels these plays out.
The system is 1-0 with a win on Wake, fading Navy. Next games would be to fade Rutgers, NW, Nevada, Penn St & Utah.
Cincy is not a play as the SOS is not over 60.
In the end, if you follow-this, you are basically stating that Vegas did not take into account SOS when they made the line. I can't see this being a year in, year out winner. Happy bowling to all, and to all a good night.
correct
Just in case people are confused ... here are the plays!
1. Wake Forest
2. South Florida
3. Arizona
4. TCU
5. Notre Dame
6. NC State
7. Missouri
8. Maryland
9. Rice
10. Air Force
11. Kansas
12. USC
13. Kentucky
14. Alabama
15. Connecticut
16. Ball State
Not looking good early on the TCU game. They have screwed themselves up to this point.
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I am not following this, and am not invested either way, just trying to help. So help me understand how I am following this backwards.
Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs
>> "Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated team" - to me this clearly reads I need to look at he top 60 teams, agree? If not the top 60, why would his first sentence be necessary?
>> "fade every team ATS whose SOS rating is 60 or worse" - to me this means every team, not just a favorite or dog, not just a team that plays a worse team on the other side of the same scenario ... fade EVERY team whose SOS rating is worse 60 or worse...right? To me this means we cannot accept the angle on one side and ignore it on the other. If neither team fits the language, neither team is a play.
>> "unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even worse" - this means avoid the play because it is not in the model, not play on the other side
So Notre Dame is a play tomorrow? That means you are:
1. fading a top 60 Sagarin rated team ... which Hawaii is not, they are 82
If you believe fading Hawaii is a team, explain to me what the line, "of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams" means....
Again, in no way do I want to be argumentative, but it seems like many in this thread want to believe in this logic, and therefor are not truly thinking it through. This is aided by the fact that the flawed logic created a 3-0 start before a tough loss tonight.
I will let it go because it is not that important to me, and I am not seeking to add confusion, only thinking I am adding clarity to a confused scenario.
Best Wishes
I am not following this, and am not invested either way, just trying to help. So help me understand how I am following this backwards.
Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs
>> "Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated team" - to me this clearly reads I need to look at he top 60 teams, agree? If not the top 60, why would his first sentence be necessary?
>> "fade every team ATS whose SOS rating is 60 or worse" - to me this means every team, not just a favorite or dog, not just a team that plays a worse team on the other side of the same scenario ... fade EVERY team whose SOS rating is worse 60 or worse...right? To me this means we cannot accept the angle on one side and ignore it on the other. If neither team fits the language, neither team is a play.
>> "unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even worse" - this means avoid the play because it is not in the model, not play on the other side
So Notre Dame is a play tomorrow? That means you are:
1. fading a top 60 Sagarin rated team ... which Hawaii is not, they are 82
If you believe fading Hawaii is a team, explain to me what the line, "of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams" means....
Again, in no way do I want to be argumentative, but it seems like many in this thread want to believe in this logic, and therefor are not truly thinking it through. This is aided by the fact that the flawed logic created a 3-0 start before a tough loss tonight.
I will let it go because it is not that important to me, and I am not seeking to add confusion, only thinking I am adding clarity to a confused scenario.
Best Wishes
