This bowl system went 11-1 last season ...

[coitus_maximus]

The S.F. game is a nailbiter. Going from 10 to 13 point diffs.

 

[jbragg10]

2-0 system to start the bowl season.

 

[Chispa]

I'd be really interested in knowing how this system did for the '06 bowl season, too.

Here're the '06 Sagarin numbers and the '06.

I pulled together the lines and scores for '06. Here are the ATS winning results for '06:

BCS National Championship
Florida 41 vs. Ohio State 14 [Line FL +7]
Glendale, Arizona Jan.8

________________________________________________
Previous Results
Poinsettia Bowl
TCU 37, Northern Illinois 7 [Line TCU -12]
San Diego, Cal. Dec. 19

Las Vegas Bowl
BYU 38 vs. Oregon 8 [Line BYU -3]
Las Vegas, Nev. Dec. 21

New Orleans Bowl
Rice 17 vs. Troy 41 [Line Troy +4.5]
Lafayette, La. Dec. 22
PapaJohns.com Bowl*
South Florida 24 vs. East Carolina 7 [Line SF -5]
Birmingham, Ala. Dec. 23
New Mexico Bowl*
New Mexico 12 vs. San Jose State 20 [Line SJS +3]
Albuquerque, N.M. Dec. 23
Armed Forces Bowl
Utah 25 vs. Tulsa 13 [Line Utah -2.5]
Fort Worth, Texas Dec. 23
Hawaii Bowl
Hawaii 41 vs. Arizona State 24 [Line HI -8.5]
Honolulu, Hawaii Dec. 24
Motor City Bowl
Central Michigan 31 vs. Middle Tennessee 14 [Line CM -8.5]
Detroit, Michigan Dec. 26

Emerald Bowl
Florida State 44 vs. UCLA 27 [Line FSU +3.5]
San Francisco, Ca. Dec. 27
Independence Bowl
Oklahoma State 34 vs. Alabama 31 [Line OSU -2]
Shreveport, La. Dec. 28
Holiday Bowl
California 45 vs. Texas A&M 10 [Line Cal -3]
San Diego, Ca. Dec. 28
Texas Bowl (former Houston Bowl)
Rutgers 37 vs. Kansas State 10 [Line Rut -8.5]
Houston, Texas Dec. 28
Music City Bowl
Clemson 20 vs. Kentucky 28 [Line Kent +11.5]
Nashville, Ten. Dec. 29
Sun Bowl
Oregon State 39 vs. Missouri 38 [Line Missou +3.5]
El Paso, Texas Dec. 29
Liberty Bowl
Houston 36 vs. South Carolina 44 [Line SC -4.5]
Memphis, Ten. Dec 29
Insight Bowl
Texas Tech 44 vs. Minnesota 41 (2OT) [Minn +8]
Phoenix, Az. Dec. 29
Champs Sports Bowl
Purdue 7 vs. Maryland 24 [Line MD +1.5]
Orlando, Fl. Dec. 29
Meineke Car Care
Navy 24 vs. Boston College 25 [Line Navy +8]
Charlotte, N.C. Dec. 30
Alamo Bowl
Texas 26 vs. Iowa 24 [Line Iowa +9]
San Antonio, Texas Dec. 30
Chick-fil-A Bowl (former Peach Bowl)
Georgia 31 vs. Virginia Tech 24 [Line Georgia +3]
Atlanta, Ga. Dec. 30
MPC Computers Bowl
Miami (FL) 21 vs. Nevada 20 [Line Nevada +3]
Boise, Idaho Dec. 31
Outback Bowl
Tennessee 10 vs. Penn State 20 [Line PS +3.5]
Tampa, Florida Jan. 1
Cotton Bowl
Auburn 17 vs. Nebraska 14 [Line Auburn -1.5]
Dallas, Texas Jan.1
Gator Bowl
West Virginia 38 vs. Georgia Tech 35 [Line GT +9.5]
Jacksonville, Fl. Jan. 1
Capital One Bowl
Arkansas 14 vs. Wisconsin 17 [Line Wisky +2.5]
Orlando, Fl. Jan. 1
Rose Bowl
USC 32 vs. Michigan 18 [Line USC +1.5]
Pasadena, Cal. Jan. 1
Fiesta Bowl
Boise State 43 vs. Oklahoma 42 [Line Boise +7]
Phoenix, Ar. Jan. 1
Orange Bowl
Louisville 24 vs. Wake Forest 13 [Line Lou -10.5]
Miami, Fl. Jan. 2
Sugar Bowl
Notre Dame 14 vs. LSU 41 [Line LSU -9]
New Orleans, Louisiana Jan. 3
International Bowl
Cincinnati 27 vs. Western Michigan 24 [Line WM +7]
Toronto, Ontario Jan. 6
GMAC Bowl
Ohio 7 vs. Southern Miss 28 [Line SMU -6.5]
Mobile, Alabama Jan. 7


If anyone has the time, inclination and smarts to figure the system's results for '06 - you'd be my hero. :toast:


p.s. Man, putting up those scores and lines brought back some memories. arty:

 

[terpkeg]

I saw this somewhere else, so I am not taking credit for it.
Just thought I would pass it along.

11-1 last season:
Here it is: Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs.

So here are the teams to take ATS this year:
USC
Alabama
Wake Forest
South Florida
Arizona
TCU
NC State
Missouri
Rice
Kentucky
UCONN
Ball State

Do you think that the formula loses some validity when the team you are playing also has a SOS outside the top 60, like Ball St. SOS 116 compared to Tulsa at 122.

Figure the reason this approach yeilds results is that teams with high SAG ratings with a soft SOS may just be over valued by the public in general. They have a good record, but have played a bunch of softies. But if both teams fit into same category, doesnt seem to be much help.

Just an observation. BOL if following system.

 

[jbragg10]

^ not sure. I post it how I see it.

I guess we will wait and see.

 

[jbragg10]

Looks like a 3-0 day to start it off.

 

[Chispa]

I'm sold. I'd still love to back-check it though.

 

[jblonghorn]

Jesus. Which game on this list is next? I need something to follow. That Navy game was a horrible beat though.

 

[MERLIN]

I believe the next game is TCU ...Tues the 23rd.

 

[geeze]

jbragg10, the great one. Unusually good thread. Thank you.

I wonder if the same approach would work during the latter part of the regular season, when enough games have been played to establish SOS ratings?

Anyway, we're off to a nice start thanks to you.

Merry Christmas.!

 

[jetro315]

i love TCU, Mizzou and UConn

 

[jetro315]

LOVE Alabama too

 

[silver7]

On Most Of Them

:think2:except a few. On Buff +4-. Love NCST.

 

[Willie99]

Gee, that would mean 3-0 for me today. I hope you're right

arty:

 

[PittsburghPaul]

pace is the race fellows, Thanks for posting Jbragg, double P

 

[docslep]

:think2:except a few. On Buff +4-. Love NCST.

isn't ncst playing rutgers? unless my newspaper has a misprint:think2:

 

[jbragg10]

yep ... tcu is the next game fellas.
Hopefully this system continues to pan out.

 

[YourAllAmerican]

What SoS ranking are you using on this? I'm showing Boise State at 63.30 in Sagarin, and BYU at 67.29. Those teams I picked at just a fast glance.

 

[jbragg10]

^ they are not plays because of that reason.

That is why you are suppose to play Arizona and TCU.

 

[YourAllAmerican]

I may be misunderstanding the system, then. Is it meant to say fade every favorite with a SoS of less than 60 -- playing them if they are ranked higher than that -- or simply fade every team, favorite or dog, under that mark?