TheRX Presents: THE 2014 LV HILTON STYLE NFL SUPERCONTEST << FINAL STANDINGS - POST #287 >> GIJOE WINS !!

[ML Dog]

This bickering back and forth is childish and you both know it. I make my own lines, develop my leans then....as a final step in my handicapping process I get a consensus of what certain entrants here and in the LVH Contest are on compare those to my own. G.I. Joe has not been copying anyone. Even if he were tailing a guy on a win rate % in the 'hood of 70, jumping on board when he's hitting at that % would be an insanely stupid move, strategy wise due to normal natural regression. CH Ballers was a total anomaly.

Please stop attacking one another. Its casting an unpleasant pall on the contest at it's end which, yes, seems to be where most discussions that surround things competitive wind up on the internet these days but you guys can be better, do better, be more grace-filled and if you can you both and everyone else would be better off for it.

Change the entry time to Noon and you'll get less entrants than you would have with a later deadline. Thats reality so if you do that just be prepared for a smaller rate of growth than you'd otherwise have seen. LVH Contest will blow up going forward like Poker did, next year it would not be surprising, to me at least, to see 2000 entrants.

 

[NumberFreak]

Change the entry time to Noon and you'll get less entrants than you would have with a later deadline. Thats reality so if you do that just be prepared for a smaller rate of growth than you'd otherwise have seen. LVH Contest will blow up going forward like Poker did, next year it would not be surprising, to me at least, to see 2000 entrants.

This contest will have less entries if you make the deadline closer or the same as the LVH which you expect to keep climbing in entries? Could you please explain?

On a side note, I had no idea our deadline was five hours after the LVH picks are released as I always make my picks plenty early on Friday. Tough to know how anyone comes up with their picks in any contest or in any personal thread in a forum, for that matter. Everyone uses some form of "information", whatever that is. Mine is 100% my own creation from statistical analysis and no influence from consensuses or anyone else's picks. Kind of makes me wish I was in a contest or posting at a forum against others that did the same so we could see who "the best NFL handicapper" really is, and not possibly someone that copied the right people at the right time (not saying that's what's happening here but now I know it's possible).

Kind of tarnishes the meaning of any contest. Not much you can do about it though, other than making the deadline earlier.


P.S. - I'm speaking of all contests in general and not specifically this one as I have no knowledge of how anyone here handicaps. I am in the LVH as well.

 

[barnstorm]

Standings after week 16?

 

[BAGIANT]

Ours get shown after 8pm EST.......that's 5 hours after the LVH contest plays are out.........

I'm on the west coast.

 

[BAGIANT]

Not even sure what all the fuss is about. there's no Rule saying you can't copy from the LVH, not that I'm saying anyone is.
and nobody says when you have to make your picks, unless of course if it's After the deadline.

But I do think the current deadline is late. and will rethink it for next year

Let's make it the same as the LVH next year. Where are last weeks results. Never have seen them so late.
The other ridiculous thing was that line Westgate posted for the Carolina game. It gave people in both contests a victory they might not have had, had they made a selection on their own. What a shame to happen so late in the contest.

 

[JOH]

 

[GurlGoneWild]

What is the standing for this week please???

 

[GurlGoneWild]

oopsey never mind LOL

 

[JOH]

tough f'n crowd here. it's the holiday season folks, I have a life too.

 

[Betallsports]

This contest will have less entries if you make the deadline closer or the same as the LVH which you expect to keep climbing in entries? Could you please explain?

On a side note, I had no idea our deadline was five hours after the LVH picks are released as I always make my picks plenty early on Friday. Tough to know how anyone comes up with their picks in any contest or in any personal thread in a forum, for that matter. Everyone uses some form of "information", whatever that is. Mine is 100% my own creation from statistical analysis and no influence from consensuses or anyone else's picks. Kind of makes me wish I was in a contest or posting at a forum against others that did the same so we could see who "the best NFL handicapper" really is, and not possibly someone that copied the right people at the right time (not saying that's what's happening here but now I know it's possible).

Kind of tarnishes the meaning of any contest. Not much you can do about it though, other than making the deadline earlier.


P.S. - I'm speaking of all contests in general and not specifically this one as I have no knowledge of how anyone here handicaps. I am in the LVH as well.

in past years it was 3 hours earlier ... West Coast guys complained . I'm sure the guys in the Real LVH don't complain and get their picks in. which I believe is 11am PST deadline on Saturday Morning.

 

[barnstorm]

in past years it was 3 hours earlier ... West Coast guys complained . I'm sure the guys in the Real LVH don't complain and get their picks in. which I believe is 11am PST deadline on Saturday Morning.

We could do 2 PM or maybe even 2:30 PM and that would still require us to get out picks in before anyone could see and copy the picks of the Real LVH SuperContest. That's a good compromise. Gives the West Coasters a couple extra hours, and avoids copycat picks.

I doubt we would lose any entries as a result.

 

[barnstorm]

tough f'n crowd here. it's the holiday season folks, I have a life too.

Thankyou)(&
Thanks JOH! I figured you were out doing last minute Christmas shopping. You're the best! And actually the main reason I would come back and play again. It's great to have such prompt and thorough standings. That makes it all the more exciting.

Question: Are the standings and wins and losses 100% accurate and automatically scored and compiled by the spreadsheet, so that there is no need or reason to go back and double check my picks to see if I can find another point or two?!
:modemman:

 

[TheComputerGroup]

We could do 2 PM or maybe even 2:30 PM and that would still require us to get out picks in before anyone could see and copy the picks of the Real LVH SuperContest. That's a good compromise. Gives the West Coasters a couple extra hours, and avoids copycat picks.

I doubt we would lose any entries as a result.

Yes......our contest timeline should be 11am west coast/2pm east coast times......would be perfect & like others have mentioned, I highly doubt our contest would lose players.

If we have the official rules of the real LVH contest, we should also have the official entry time.

 

[Recon792]

tough f'n crowd here. it's the holiday season folks, I have a life too.

JOH -- Thanks for all your hard work all year long here at the RX -- it's much appreciated!!!

 

[JOH]

Thankyou)(&
Thanks JOH! I figured you were out doing last minute Christmas shopping. You're the best! And actually the main reason I would come back and play again. It's great to have such prompt and thorough standings. That makes it all the more exciting.

Question: Are the standings and wins and losses 100% accurate and automatically scored and compiled by the spreadsheet, so that there is no need or reason to go back and double check my picks to see if I can find another point or two?!
:modemman:

I think I made 2 scoring errors that posters called me out on from the start. If you feel the need to back track, be my guest. Me thinks you waste you time. lol

 

[JOH]

By the way I feel bad for being late... sorry. Personal things were piling up on me last couple. Thanks for understanding.

 

[ML Dog]

This contest will have less entries if you make the deadline closer or the same as the LVH which you expect to keep climbing in entries? Could you please explain?

Not "less entries" from present numbers but "less growth", a smaller increase in # of entries than otherwise would have been true.

Talk of adjusting the deadline to the same as LVH is pointless because RX is gonna go with the setup thats gonna create the most traffic to this website, as they should. Thats accomplished by molding a contest thats gonna see the most entrants and The Prize Pool as large as possible.

Giving people as little time as possible to get their entries in each week and literally barely any time at all for a M-F 9-5 Blue Collar Worker with kids to dissect the games on saturday, the best and some weeks THE ONLY TIME for him to be able to do that, is a move that would lead to less traffic and a Smaller Prize Pool.

And the more restrictive deadline wouldn't even accomplish the fantasy of "a pure handicapping contest" because earlier deadline wouldn't prevent people from using Gold Sheet picks, Tout picks or even what Chris Berman says the outcome of a game is gonna be to pick their games.

Which is absolutely no different than using what the top LVH entrants take.

I appreciate the "I want a pure handicapping contest" and I get that, it's a totally admirable position but its not an accomplish-able reality. Larger Prize Pool and Increased Website Traffic as result of a larger Contest is.

Copying picks from others doesn't equate to automatic success. Probability-wise, in "+EV" terms many guys here would understand...how smart would you call it to jump on board a capper hitting at 67%+?

Thats why I'm so puzzled by why some guys are so put off by this strategy. Its a very Square strategy. Welcome people that wanna do this, they're trying to give you money.

If you want a Prize Pool a few thousand $ less than what would have been.....to freeze out squares who'd jump on a -EV bandwagon and are, in essence, just trying to give you money if you cash in this thing....go for it.

Seems an odd choice to me though. I'd think ya'll would prefer to focus on making as Large a Prize Pool as possible, putting as much money in your pocket as can be if you cash and I'd think those with $ intertest in RX would want a contest thats gonna encourage the most traffic to the website.

Maybe framing this as a "pure handicapping contest" is important enough to eclipse these things though.

 

[Michelangelo]

I'm a purist. I'd vote to be concurrent with the real Hilton deadline if anyone asked.

 

[The Guesser]

Not "less entries" from present numbers but "less growth", a smaller increase in # of entries than otherwise would have been true.

Talk of adjusting the deadline to the same as LVH is pointless because RX is gonna go with the setup thats gonna create the most traffic to this website, as they should. Thats accomplished by molding a contest thats gonna see the most entrants and The Prize Pool as large as possible.

Giving people as little time as possible to get their entries in each week and literally barely any time at all for a M-F 9-5 Blue Collar Worker with kids to dissect the games on saturday, the best and some weeks THE ONLY TIME for him to be able to do that, is a move that would lead to less traffic and a Smaller Prize Pool.

And the more restrictive deadline wouldn't even accomplish the fantasy of "a pure handicapping contest" because earlier deadline wouldn't prevent people from using Gold Sheet picks, Tout picks or even what Chris Berman says the outcome of a game is gonna be to pick their games.

Which is absolutely no different than using what the top LVH entrants take.

I appreciate the "I want a pure handicapping contest" and I get that, it's a totally admirable position but its not an accomplish-able reality. Larger Prize Pool and Increased Website Traffic as result of a larger Contest is.

Copying picks from others doesn't equate to automatic success. Probability-wise, in "+EV" terms many guys here would understand...how smart would you call it to jump on board a capper hitting at 67%+?

Thats why I'm so puzzled by why some guys are so put off by this strategy. Its a very Square strategy. Welcome people that wanna do this, they're trying to give you money.

If you want a Prize Pool a few thousand $ less than what would have been.....to freeze out squares who'd jump on a -EV bandwagon and are, in essence, just trying to give you money if you cash in this thing....go for it.

Seems an odd choice to me though. I'd think ya'll would prefer to focus on making as Large a Prize Pool as possible, putting as much money in your pocket as can be if you cash and I'd think those with $ intertest in RX would want a contest thats gonna encourage the most traffic to the website.

Maybe framing this as a "pure handicapping contest" is important enough to eclipse these things though.

Great post. I would vote to keep the deadline where it is, or even make it as late as midnight Saturday. If someone wants to mirror a capper in the real LVH, good luck to them if it works out. As long as we are mirroring the lines from LVH, and they are stale, it's not a pure handicapping contest.

 

[ML Dog]

Great post. I would vote to keep the deadline where it is, or even make it as late as midnight Saturday. If someone wants to mirror a capper in the real LVH, good luck to them if it works out. As long as we are mirroring the lines from LVH, and they are stale, it's not a pure handicapping contest.

Exactly. And if someone wants to Mirror Phil Steel 6-10 LW ongoing Trainwreck, theres another $250 or whatever the entry fee is here to the Prize Pool. How many mirrored LY's Winners Picks? His entry #1 is at 47 #2 is at 36. Neither cash here. However many would jump in to Mirror CHBallers next year, thats how many more entry fees you'll not have added to the Prize Pool if you set the deadline the same as LVH.

You think the guy is gonna go 70%+ 2 years in a row? You Old School Guys like BAGiant know better than that.

I wasn't able to get in this contest because The Embassy dragged their feet getting me out of the jail so I missed the entry deadline, for all of you who are fixin' to say "who the hell are you you ain't even in the contest."

....and I ain't proposing against giving people even less time to get picks in out of anything to do with what entrants to LVH Contest take.

I'm simply trying to illustrate the bigger picture here, and trying to get those running the show to not toss the baby out with the bathwater. Baby being the Max Increase in Entries/ Largest Prize Pool/Increased Traffic to the Website and the bathwater being a few squares not smart enough to figure out that tailing a capper hitting at 67%+ is a majorly -EV proposition.