The wide open AFC

[PatsFan1283]

If you're lower on the Bills then you're lower but their PD is 163 even with Indy blowout. They are 3rd in DVOA, their pythag record is around 11 wins. They are #1 in FPI. Cincy is 13th.

Them being 9-6 is clearly a tail outcome based on the way they've played, unless you think they are really deficient in 1 score games and that isn't largely variance I guess. They wouldn't be +5 at home vs the Chiefs in a game they needed to win to clinch their division, or anyone in the NFL in any game at home for that matter.

 

[REDEYE]

That's a dumb comment.

In the current setup, the teams that have the best 7 records in each conference belong in the playoffs. The teams that don't, dont. Simple as that. To say anything else is stupid.

You can disagree all you want. Not sure why you're calling my opinion dumb or stupid...

 

[PatsFan1283]

I think they are the second-best team based on their entire body of work.

Doesn't really matter anyway. It just matters whose best in January

If they are as high as you think, I would say that is the last reason I would put them there. Their body of work is clearly mediocre, they haven't had a difficult schedule (31st currently per FPI but obviously that will get tougher over next 2 weeks), they have very few good wins. Likely 0 over teams that are going to be playoff bound. Their body of work profiles as a slightly better than .500 team.

The reasoning why they would be that high is just that their QB-WR1-WR2 are the strength of their team and they're in their 2nd-2nd-1st year and ascending rapidly. If that is the case, then metrics can't really price in their rise in real time. They're just ascending and you are being early on them but obviously their resume is thin.

 

[Dr.Love]

Not sure why you're calling my opinion dumb or stupid...

Because it is. I call a spade a spade.

Spade.

 

[REDEYE]

Because it is. I call a spade a spade.

Spade.

Just scroll past my posts if you can't handle yourself better..

I don't need the schoolgirl type behavior responses

 

[Dr.Love]

Just scroll past my posts if you can't handle yourself better..

Just scroll past my posts if you can't handle some truth and your cunt hurts easily.

We don't need anymore sensitive bitches here.

 

[REDEYE]

Just scroll past my posts if you can't handle some truth and your cunt hurts easily.

We don't need anymore sensitive bitches here.

Did one better. Just put you on ignore..

 

[Avocado33]

Teams being two games off their Pythag projection is not abnormal at all. It’s an extremely flawed stat based on a flawed ideology

Bills losing close games is absolutely a factor to consider when evaluating them

I hope we see them play in the playoffs

 

[PatsFan1283]

Most stats are flawed to a degree and further context is needed, especially in the NFL with small sample sizes. Tons of noise, why you take all of them together with subjective analysis. It obviously isn't irrelevant and worth citation.

Most metrics have the Bills as that type of team, not just pythag. But if you think that is all overstated it is fine. I've thought #'s don't add up to my own opinion in other instances.

It isn't perfect but scoring differential can often be more valuable than W/L record so I wouldn't say it is that flawed. But yeah, pythag/SRS are definitely more valuable in NBA where you get tons of possessions, tons of games and no 1 possession has immense value over others.

 

[Avocado33]

“Oh let’s factor in how a team performs for the remainder of a 41-7 game with 7:42 left into how they will perform the rest of the season”

 

[HotshotGambler]

Just scroll past my posts if you can't handle some truth and your cunt hurts easily.

We don't need anymore sensitive bitches here.

Hell I had to delete posts today in the service plays thread, so I don't get banned because I called out a Service that no one can find anywhere online and only one guy has access too. Seems like a money grab to me he is posting plays and if he loses he will disappear and if he wins he will open a fly by night website and sale plays too the retards at this forum. Why do we have so many sensitive adult males in this World???

 

[Avocado33]

Buffalo is great at keeping their foot on the gas when they jump out to leads/play well early.

They struggle mightily in close games

 

[PatsFan1283]

That is why stats like DVOA attempt to measure teams in neutral situations to avoid overweighting stuff like "garbage time", even that is flawed. You play team at diff times in the year, injuries, etc but it is relevant.

The Bills won 2 close games in the playoffs last year vs Indy/BMore, they were 4-1 in 1 score games last year (don't remember how close each game was) and the loss was on a Kyler Murray hail mary. They basically have the entire same core players+same coaching staff.

Do they struggle in close games or were those 2021 near term results noise? Was NE not a close game Sunday? They only won by 2 scores because of a dagger TD late, if they don't get that TD NE has a chance to win.

I guess that is the million dollar question but I doubt there is anything inherent in the Bills play that leads them to struggle in close games.

 

[SheriffJoe]

Teams being two games off their Pythag projection is not abnormal at all. It’s an extremely flawed stat based on a flawed ideology

Bills losing close games is absolutely a factor to consider when evaluating them

I hope we see them play in the playoffs

Because they have no running game to run clock and protect leads late in close games.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Because they have no running game to run clock and protect leads late in close games.

This may be true and could rear its ugly head. But it isn't the reason they are 0-5 in 1 score games this year. All of those games they were the team that didn't have the lead in the 4th quarter. Pitt/JVille/NE/TB.....Well, vs Tenn they briefly had it.

 

[Avocado33]

Because they have no running game to run clock and protect leads late in close games.

Their running game basically is Josh Allen improvisation. Luckily he’s good at that

Running back another edge for the Bengals, and a big one

 

[Dr.Love]

Did one better. Just put you on ignore..

Ooooh. That'll show me.

What a sensitive little snowflake bitch.

 

[PatsFan1283]

I like how the nfl basically just ended the covid nonsense in the span of a week, lol....That is how you handle business and keep the $ flowing

bout time

 

[Avocado33]

Ooooh. That'll show me.

What a sensitive little snowflake bitch.

You were pretty over sensitive by reaching to his comment the way you did

Anyways do you have a couple locks for this week?

 

[Dr.Love]

You were pretty over sensitive by reaching to his comment the way you did

What? Are you drunk?