My results from this past week, which I posted earlier, also have my YTD results, broken down by category as well.
I actually haven't done a full season in NCAA with my current fine-tuned spreadsheet system. In the NFL I did it for many seasons and won pretty consistently, with no seeming correlation based on the portion of the season. I always did very well in the playoffs. My first attempt at NCAAF several years ago was a decent port of my NFL system, but my luck seemed to run abysmally and I finished down on the year. The season after that I was a pretty solid winner. I skipped a season, then picked it back up midway through last season. I started off very hot but then bad luck reared it's head again and in spite of beating the market a ton as I always do I finished with several losing weeks and ended up a small loser on the season, but was ahead in the Bowls. This year saw me adding some new metrics to massage my basic line making, and obviously the results so far have been fantastic. I'd struggled with setting lines for the games with very high lines, but I've got that completely under control now. All in all I'm far more comfortable with my lines than I've been in past seasons of NCAA football. I'd been doing NFL lines for almost 10 years and it was always a process of trying to improve it. I'm not even halfway into that for NCAAF yet.
I originally played CIN +7 because of the combination of some line value and BYU QB Mangum's ankle injury. He was later listed as probably and I took the Over 64 for a unit when it opened. I'm a little concerned about the BYU QB situation, because the Cougars have squadouche behind Mangum, just one freshman. As a result I'm going to buy back almost half of the Over unit with a chance to middle with Under 68 (-108 5D) for .4 unit.
Heh, not a great 2nd half in the CIN @ BYU game. The only consolation is that I never actually posted the CIN +7 play. (I only made reference to a play near game time). I went back and checked. Doh. Now I'm even on forgotten to post picks, as I had ASU -12.5 last week vs COLO and forgot to post it. I missed middling that total by 2 points, last night I missed the middle by 1 point, and Utah State getting 7 first half takeaways from Boise and a landslide of points already put that game Over and that middle will end up being squashed by a mile. At least the Over was one of my big plays of the week and is already a winner. UNLV @ FRES looking pretty good right now almost at the half, and the Houston @ Tulane really good almost to the fourth.
I think the TCU @ ISU line will go up tomorrow. That's been the one total I'm having a hard time understanding this week -- why it has dropped and why it hasn't rebounded yet. I'm on a currently bad number of Over 74.5. I'm going to add Over 71 for another unit and try to pick up 2-4 points before game time to set up a middle zone below my original play that might salvage the bad position. In case you haven't noticed I've been right every time setting up a middle, lol. A little concerned that this one has stayed so low for so long, like I said, but worst case scenario I juice out as I don't think there's anyway this line goes lower.
