The Sports Cruncher's 2015 CFB Week 05 Lines & Market Plays

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Chomping at the bits
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Time to suck up some RAS steam.

Adding another unit on IOWA@WIS Over 44.5 to go with the 46.5. This steam will get sucked back up and I should be able to try and middle the bonus unit hopefully through 2 key numbers.
 

Chomping at the bits
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Looks like several weather plays on the East coast Unders. Unfortunately I have a few 1/2 unit Overs out in those areas that are getting pounded down right now. As much as I'd like to snap up a little extra at these real low numbers...the weather actually is a concern, lol. Hopefully that storm doesn't do me too much damage this Saturday, lol. I do have some full unit plays on Unders out there, at least.
 

Chomping at the bits
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Adding for 1 Unit: Southern Alabama @ Troy Under 62.5

Stepping in front of the steam is always dangerous, as are Unders when two bottom 30 teams with bottom 30 defenses get together, but my rankings have their offenses in the bottom 30 as well. This suggests a game played out, on average, near the average FBS final score of a smidge over 55. I actually project this one to go even a point+ below the average because Troy is predominantly a running team who've operated at a pretty slow pace this year, especially in the season opener against NCST. They picked it up somewhat against Wisconsin, but were still 2+ seconds slower than the average pace. SOAL can keep this game close with their passing game, but I'd expect Troy to play clock control with any kind of lead or even a small deficit until late in the game.
 

Chomping at the bits
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Adding for 1 Unit: ARMY +24.5 @ PSU

The injuries kind of cancel each other out in this one, imo. Army QB Bradshaw "?" with an ankle while PSU RBs Lynch and Barkley are also both "?" with an ankle. Army's 2nd QB Schurr doesn't look to be too much of a drop off though a good chunk of his limited stats came against EMU's defense.
 

Chomping at the bits
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M-OH @ Kent total up to 49 now, so I'm forced to chase the 1/2 unit I initially put on the Under 46.5 with another 1/2 unit on 49, lol. Every time I do this I'm mandated by conscience to say this doesn't work out at a very high rate. M-OH's run defense isn't actually all that bad, which is a good match up against Kent. M-OH has had one good FBS game of offense this year, against Cincinnati. Kent has also had one, against Marshall last week, where they ran the ball really well for the first time. M-OH was pass happy in the shut out against Wisky but has flipped and run more than they've passed in their last two games. They played at a pretty average pace in their two blow out losses, but very fast in the game against Cincy in which they were tied after 3 quarters and which went down to the wire. A small pattern I've maybe noticed this year is service plays coming in on teams that have shown that they're going to play up tempo sometimes, if not all the time. I was wrong the last time I saw this scenario last week in the UNT @ Iowa game. UNT continued to play fast, and their shite defense just got completely boat raced by Iowa. At the very least in this match up we're talking about Kent, who is still a much stronger team on defense than offense. So while there's a chance that Kent runs the ball well again, and a chance that M-OH has some passing success against Kent's defense (who is better against the run), as long as both chances don't come to fruition I think this game stays in the low 40s, barring the usual possibility of defensive and special teams scores.
 

Chomping at the bits
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This hurricane business back East is a real pain to handicap. I had a few marginal Overs I added on Monday before the weather info. hit and now those three totals have taken a dive. I have maybe a couple Unders that have benefited. I really like the ALA @ UGA Over I got at 52 but now the forecast is for 2-3 inches of rain Saturday, with not so bad winds of 10 mph. That sounds like a lot of rain. As much as I like this Over I'm going to buy the unit back on the Under 55 while it's still available. The rain is supposed to be less further up in Raleigh, for example, but the winds are higher. Maybe with a little luck I'll break even on this mess, lol.
 

Chomping at the bits
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Ha, I played the Over 66 for a unit on tonight's MIA@CIN game, but somehow it being the first play I made at opening I failed to see it at the bottom of the list when posting here. I think it's still worth a play at 69.5.
 

All eyes on You
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Hey Crunch, do you know when you will have the Week 5 Grid out? Keep up the good work, love your info and insight. Thx
 

Chomping at the bits
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PM sent.
 

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Chomping at the bits
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I attached a copy of my week 5 market cheat sheet excel file above. The formulas for updating the line values are live, so you can use it as a template for your own needs if you update the teams and lines each week.
 

Chomping at the bits
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And here's an image of it. Most of the negative total values are because of the Hurricane, I haven't made any manual adjustments to the lines, just so you know what my non weather influenced line is.

FV8AGjH.png

C8fMxto.png
 

Chomping at the bits
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I said if HAW @ BSU ever went above 52 I'd bump the Under up to a full unit by adding, so consider it done at 53.5.
 

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Very generous of you to share your calculations, thanx.

With you on Pitt, the Gophers and AZ State. I am a technical handicapper who has indicators on about 15 games this week. We disagree on 5 of them, so we're getting there pretty much the same, but by different methods. I'll probably use your calculations as a filter on those we disagree on. Another interesting thing (at least to me) is that those games on covers consensus that have greater than 50% of the public on a dog started the season at 2-11 against the spread and have been about 45% since. I've looked at this for the past three years or so in the NCAA and public dogs are never above 50% for the season and usually closer to 40% using covers numbers, so I am using this as a filter also.

We disagree on Miss State, (strongest indicators on them) UTEP, Alabama, South Carolina and Rice. Besides the plays already mentioned, your math and my indicators agree on: NMSU, KSU, UNLV, Air Force, WSU, Fresno State and Buffalo.

I haven't looked at your totals and don't play them until after I have six weeks of data and then use a very simple regression formula. Historically, how have your totals done, and how have they done relative to your sides?
 

Chomping at the bits
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Historically I've done far better on totals then sides, but that was primarily in the NFL. I found NFL totals much softer than sides almost always. In NCAA I'm finding the lines on sides softer than totals. Just playing pure line value that my cheat sheet shows has done really well so far this year. With totals I'm not finding as many lines to play right out of the gate based purely on line value. I've started the profiling on totals to add more plays that don't have as much pure line value. My total profiles that were either + or ++ rated did very well last week - the simple leans of Under or Over did not. I'm sure all lines will tighten as the season progresses. In the NFL I almost always waited until week 4 to start making plays -- waiting for the data, as you say. This is the first season where I've worked hard at blending the data from this season's games with last year's data to make lines for all of these early weeks. So far it's been working out really well. By next week I will be using just this year's data for most teams, it depends on how many games each team has had versus an FBS opponent so far.

Not sure how you factor in injuries, but UTEP lost their top RB and QB 1.5 weeks ago.
 

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Thanks for the response and the info on UTEP.

In the past I have usually had one killer week playing totals out of the 5 or 6 weeks available to bet and the others are a little profitable overall in NCAA.

Alabama has become a public dog so they are out as a play. Miami, OH and Kansas are also plays in agreement with your numbers.

It's gonna be a good weekend. Good luck.
 

Chomping at the bits
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Thx, Jup - yeah, I'm going to add Kansas now. I'm passing on M-Oh currently because they've laid two incredible eggs on the road so far this season.

.55 Unit: Kansas +17 @ Iowa State

1 Unit: Arizona State @ UCLA Under 61.5
 

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