Very generous of you to share your calculations, thanx.
With you on Pitt, the Gophers and AZ State. I am a technical handicapper who has indicators on about 15 games this week. We disagree on 5 of them, so we're getting there pretty much the same, but by different methods. I'll probably use your calculations as a filter on those we disagree on. Another interesting thing (at least to me) is that those games on covers consensus that have greater than 50% of the public on a dog started the season at 2-11 against the spread and have been about 45% since. I've looked at this for the past three years or so in the NCAA and public dogs are never above 50% for the season and usually closer to 40% using covers numbers, so I am using this as a filter also.
We disagree on Miss State, (strongest indicators on them) UTEP, Alabama, South Carolina and Rice. Besides the plays already mentioned, your math and my indicators agree on: NMSU, KSU, UNLV, Air Force, WSU, Fresno State and Buffalo.
I haven't looked at your totals and don't play them until after I have six weeks of data and then use a very simple regression formula. Historically, how have your totals done, and how have they done relative to your sides?