Thx, zombie.
Phew, finally back from family vacation to spend time doing something I really like, lol.
I haven't posted the 3 remaining independent teams yet, so here they are, in a simplified format.
ARMY - current season wins lines: 3.5 (-150 Over, +130 Under) - My line is 4.7 wins, but I wouldn't consider Army a lock to win against Fordham or Bucknell, so I'd manually adjust that line down to around 4.3 or 4.4 wins. It's a pass.
BYU - current season wins lines: 7.5 (+125 Over, -145 Under) - My line is 7.5 wins. Enthusiasm for BYU is souring with the loss of top RB Jamaal Williams and many suspensions to start the season. Pass.
Notre Dame - current season wins lines: 9 (-135 Over, +115 Under) - My line is 8.3 wins, making 85 cents of value on the Under. I do have a raw win projection of 10 games for the Irish, though. The only raw losses I project for them are a one point home loss to USC, and a 4 point road loss at Stanford. For close wins, I have them beating Texas, GT, @CLEM and BC. Looking at their schedule I see a win floor of 6 games. BC has the potential to see their play drop off more this season than I already project, so I think it's fairly safe as a home game to add another win for ND bringing them up to 7. Georgia Tech is also getting reverse-buzz this year. Both GT and BC lost pretty much the entirety of their offensive lines heading into this season. I have some regression built into my lines, but I'm not going to call for a wholesale gutting of a team's offense because of heavy turnover up front. Anyway, the point is, ND is likely in a position to do a little better than my projected 8.3 wins, but not much, imo. It's a pass, with a LEAN UNDER.
Phew, finally back from family vacation to spend time doing something I really like, lol.
I haven't posted the 3 remaining independent teams yet, so here they are, in a simplified format.
ARMY - current season wins lines: 3.5 (-150 Over, +130 Under) - My line is 4.7 wins, but I wouldn't consider Army a lock to win against Fordham or Bucknell, so I'd manually adjust that line down to around 4.3 or 4.4 wins. It's a pass.
BYU - current season wins lines: 7.5 (+125 Over, -145 Under) - My line is 7.5 wins. Enthusiasm for BYU is souring with the loss of top RB Jamaal Williams and many suspensions to start the season. Pass.
Notre Dame - current season wins lines: 9 (-135 Over, +115 Under) - My line is 8.3 wins, making 85 cents of value on the Under. I do have a raw win projection of 10 games for the Irish, though. The only raw losses I project for them are a one point home loss to USC, and a 4 point road loss at Stanford. For close wins, I have them beating Texas, GT, @CLEM and BC. Looking at their schedule I see a win floor of 6 games. BC has the potential to see their play drop off more this season than I already project, so I think it's fairly safe as a home game to add another win for ND bringing them up to 7. Georgia Tech is also getting reverse-buzz this year. Both GT and BC lost pretty much the entirety of their offensive lines heading into this season. I have some regression built into my lines, but I'm not going to call for a wholesale gutting of a team's offense because of heavy turnover up front. Anyway, the point is, ND is likely in a position to do a little better than my projected 8.3 wins, but not much, imo. It's a pass, with a LEAN UNDER.
Excellent write ups of conferences. I'd like to see how are numbers interact to start the season. How did you fare with FGame compared to your HT plays? I know you had mentioned late in the year that your profits were diminished via the HT plays. Just wondering if you adjusted your thought process on your ticket purchases.
I just went through and separated my HT from my FT units +/- last year. I actually ended up +5.1 units on 2nd half bets, meaning they performed better than my FT bets, as I was down a bit on the year overall. Still, I'm probably going to try and stick to just the stronger plays this year, both for FT and HT plays. I'll loosen up a bit perhaps if my numbers and plays are doing consistently well.
I'll post all my lines for week #1 sometime in the next couple of days -- good to hear from you, GG.
Gekko, you could be on to something with UMass. They play one of the easiest schedules in the country this season. Last year they helped the betting man by going 8-4 ATS. With the number of veterans coming back (even at 3-9 SU last year) the public bettor will not favor them. Could very well be a team you put a dollar on every game for the hell of it. You ain't going to lose anything.
