actually what it means is if someone does there research on a team and comes up with a solid play , who cares what conference it came from ? a winner is a winner... I do have the Ducks +3 1/2....now go fuck yourself Junk and start another bogus win total thread....Bama ov 8 1/2 , Mich St ov 7 1/2 ...Did you really think that would fly on this forum ?
actually what it means is if someone does there research on a team and comes up with a solid play , who cares what conference it came from ? a winner is a winner... I do have the Ducks +3 1/2....now go fuck yourself Junk and start another bogus win total thread....Bama ov 8 1/2 , Mich St ov 7 1/2 ...Did you really think that would fly on this forum ?
Is there such a thing as a thread in this forum without BDQH trolling? Jesus.
The Sports Cruncher's 2015 Conference USA Team Wins Analysis
Florida Atlantic University
The Owls were about as effective as their feathered mascot would be at stopping the run last year, but were pretty good against the pass. Their offense was subpar across the board. The offense will probably improve, but there are no guarantees for the defense up front. My win projections are right in line with the betting line. Pass.
Current line for season wins: 5Dimes 5 (-130 Over -110 Under)
Florida International University
Looking at the Panthers schedule, it looks VERY unlikely that they'll bank more than 6 wins this season -- the ML projection of 5 seems very accurate. Here are their probably losses: @UCF (though I think it will be closer than expected), @IND, @LT, @MRSH, vs WKU. The only two "for sure" wins on their schedule are against N.C. Central and Charlotte. Other than that I project a lot of close games that could go either way, with a game @MTU having just a 26% of winning. So much would have to go right for the Panthers just to get the 6 wins to push the wager, let alone lose it with 7+. It's 2 to get 1 juice on the play, but I think it's worth risking a 1/2 unit to win 1/4.
ADDING TO WIN 1/4 UNIT: FIU UNDER 6 WINS
Current line for season wins: 5Dimes 6 (+155 Over -195 Under)
Louisiana Tech
The biggest shoes to fill for the Bulldogs this upcoming year will be at QB and up front on what was last year a very good defensive line. There are enough pieces still in place to not expect too much regression, though. If they can plat at last year's level, they can reach double digit wins while sweeping their CUSA schedule, which benefits for the lack of finding Marshall on it. Other than an early game @WKU (a 5.5 point projected win for LT), I project LT to win by 10+ points against the rest of their schedule. For LT to lose an Over 8 games play on them, they'll have to lose 3+ games to the most likely suspects of WKU, ULL, MTU, Rice and UTEP. I think it's worth wagering on them taking at least 3 of those games while not dropping any to the even weaker teams.
ADDING TO WIN 1/2 UNIT: LT OVER 8 WINS
Current line for season wins: 5Dimes 8 (-115 Over -125 Under)
Marshall
Ahhh, the mighty Thundering Herd. I project Marshall to have the best chance of going undefeated of any team in the FBS. They will be without dual threat QB Rakeem Cato and a host of other quality players on both sides of the ball, but it's not a complete rebuild and their recruiting and depth should find them on a level near last year's.
Looking at this year's schedule, is their anyone on it you'd favor against Marshall in that game? No. I'll concede that my statistics on Marshall are bullish coming into this year because of the way they so thoroughly thrashed the bulk of their schedule last year. I mean, they really banked an impressive statistical portfolio the first 2/3 of the season. So yes, on their own, Marshall is probably statistically overvalued coming into this season. But here's the thing, my regression, returning starters and recruiting modifiers have been factored into the projections for every game, and Marshall takes a pretty strong hit in that regard. Their passing game has a -10.1% summed modifier on it, and their run game has a -12.7% summed modifier on it. In spite of this I have Marshall still winning every game on their schedule by double digits.
Here is a list of the games where Marshall is favored by between 10 and 14 points: Purdue, @Ohio, @MTU and @WKU. Every other game is in the 20s+ (with the exception of @FAU at 18.6 points). Marshall over the last many years hasn't been a great road team, actually, playing far better at home -- but that is also factored into my lines. It seems much more likely to me that Marshall wins 3+ of those 4 games than losing 3+. I'd bet on it.
ADDING TO WIN 1/2 UNIT: MRSH OVER 10 WINS
Current line for season wins: 5Dimes 10 (-125 Over -115 Under)
Middle Tennessee University
The Blue Raiders are poised to have a solid year that could spike into a very good year if they're able to win some closely projected losses. I think they're good for a solid 5 wins but beyond that there are too many close calls to risk a season wager one way or the other. I think the line and juice are accurate.
Current line for season wins: 5Dimes 7 (+160 Over -210 Under)
Old Dominion
I'm projecting the Monarch's pass offense to tail off somewhat with the loss of QB Taylor Heinicke this year. But a lot? There's reason to think not so much. He completed a decent percentage of his passes, but for a subpar 6.7 ypp average. He threw 14 picks. ODU will either be going with a highly touted freshman or a solid JUCO transfer at QB. As much as the numbers tempt me to take another OVER on a CUSA team, the QB situation might scare me off it -- oh yeah, that and the defense which was horrible last year and still doesn't rate to make any great improvements this year. Can ODU outgun it's way to Bowl eligibility this year? More importantly (for now), how certain are they to clear 5+ wins?
@EMU and vs. Norfolk State in the first two games should net them two wins to start the season. After that they'll be hoping to steal one at home from APP in the next month, with losses to NCST and @MRSH looking highly likely. After a bye they get Charlotte at home, which should be good for another win. That's 3, let's say. After that I project ODU to be involved in one score games against conference opponent's for the remainder of the season. I project them to win many of those, but the sum ML projection for those 6 games is 3.57 wins. I'm really tempted to take the Over here, but I think any variance in the statistical output from last year to this year will be downward, especially on offense, meaning I could easily be flirting with losing a highly juiced line at -185 if the squad doesn't gel. I'm already 3 bets into CUSA and I'm trying to limit myself to 4 bets per conference, so I'm going to reluctantly pass. STRONG LEAN OVER
Current line for season wins: 5Dimes 4.5 (-185 Over +145 Under)
Rice
The Owls are poised to solidify the gains they made in the passing game last year. They lose some play makers and experience on the line, but they've got a solid, if unspectacular stable of RBs returning. QB Driphus Jackson had a breakout season last year. He has the ability to make things happen with his arm or legs, plus solid decision making equaling a low turnover rate. I had Rice with the 3rd best passing game in the CUSA last year, behind only the offensive juggernauts of MRSH and WKU. Rice's defense was sub-top 100, though, and graduated a lot of players. On the plus side, they have both kickers returning.
Looking at the schedule there's just too much unpredictability with a fairly high number of closely contested games to venture a wager on either the Over or Under. If anything, I'd lean with my numbers and the Under. @TEX and @BAY are 2 losses. They get their two toughest con. games at home against WKU and LT. Good news if you're even with those teams, but I project Rice to be behind those teams and lose. Games @ FAU, @UTEP and @UTSA could go either way. They get only their 3rd likely win against ARMY, and that's it (likely meaning any game where I favor them more than a TD). In spite of only 3 "likely" wins, they should nab between 3 or 4 more, and maybe even 5. All in all, still a pass. LEAN UNDER
Current line for season wins: 5Dimes 7.5 (-115 Over -125 Under)
University of North Texas
Last year, The Football Men in Green were only about as Mean as a nasty booger lodged far up in your nasal passage, denying you a pleasurable pick and no success at inhaling backwards into your system. Did I just type that? Gross. Speaking of gross, UNT was bottom 13 or worse in the 4 run and pass offense/defense categories last year. They just plain sucked at everything. Even factoring in regression in their favor this year, it could still end up being a horrible year because of their schedule. Portland State might very well be the only team UNT beats this year. I project 5 losses for UNT of less than one score, 3 of those coming at home. I project 4 losses of more than 20 points for UNT, and a loss of 16.4 points @ MTU and 14.75 points against WKU. That means UNT would have to win every single one of those closely projected losses for an Under 5 games bet to lose. They would have to win these specific games: @SMU (tough), versus Rice (tougher), @USM (tough), versus UTSA (possible!), and versus UTEP (also surprisingly possible). All of them, they'd have to win all of them (*with the don't sue me if I'm wrong assumption they lose all the games in which they are big dogs).
Heavy juice on the Under? Yes. Even heavier chance of a push at worst? Hell yes.
ADDING TO WIN 1/2 UNIT: UNT UNDER 5 WINS
Current line for season wins: 5Dimes 5 (+145 Over -185 Under)
Zoinks! That's already 4 plays I like in the CUSA so far. What's next...
...nothing. That's it. I did a quick look at USM, UTEP, UTSA and WKU and there's nothing there I like.
CUSA is a very tiered conference -- 6 teams on the bottom, 4 teams in the middle (I put WKU as the top of the middling teams, not as the lowest of the top teams) and MRSH and LT at the top. I'm betting on that class division continuing through 2015, with Overs on the two top teams, and Unders on a couple of the bottom tier teams. The standard deviation of the ML projections is even greater in CUSA than in the Sun Belt.
I said once earlier that I was looking forward to the Sun Belt this year (because of the instant impact of APP and GASO who joined last year). After looking at the bottom 3ish conferences I don't hold that position any more. So far it's the MAC that has the most potential for exciting games and upsets every week. Time to delve into the AAC next...
The Sports Cruncher's 2015 American Athletic Conference Team Wins Analysis
Cincinnati
The pieces are in place for the Bearcats to have a monster offensive year in 2015. The return of injured backs plus their QB Kiel and most of their offensive playmakers should have the rest of the AAC shaking in their shoes. The Bearcats' defense was dead middle of the AAC pack last year, but with the solid recruiting Cincy has done they should show improvement in this and upcoming years. They dealt with a lot of injuries on defense last year, too.
I do, in fact, favor CIN to win every AAC game this year, which includes the tough outs of @MEM @ECU and @HOU. The only two raw projection losses I'm showing for CIN are @BYU and vs. MIA. I don't have them as large dogs to BYU, though, just 5.5 points. I project CIN to win a lot of games by between 5.5 and 8.3 points -- 6, as a matter of fact! That's why their ML projection of 8 wins is lower than their raw projection of 10.
Can we safely count on CIN to get 8+ wins and avoid losing a wager with a prohibitive -160 juice? Which games seem the most loseable? In order - MIA, @BYU, @MEM, @ECU and @HOU. Beyond that I favor CIN by more than 7 points in each game. It would take losing all 5 of those contests, plus another like TEM, UCF or @USF to lose the Over. Given that CIN could steal one @BYU I think Over 7.5 wins is worth a small play. With anything near average luck they'll win a minimum of 8 games.
ADDING TO WIN 1/2 UNIT: CIN OVER 7.5 WINS
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (-160 Over +120 Under)
Connecticut
CONN is set for another year of bad offense and decent defense. CONN probably won't be much of a favorite over Villanova in the season opener -- usually it's nice to rely on a D 1-AA win when looking at taking a season Over play. My ML projection should probably rate it a 50% win against Villanova instead of the automatic 100% versus a D 1-AA school that is usually applied. Here are the winnable games for CONN this year: VILL, ARMY, USF, ECU @TULN and HOU. I even project them to lose by less than a TD @UCF and @TEM. It seems from this past year I was more bullish on UCONN than most (with a great upset pick against UCF...and a terrible 2 unit loss to SMU). I mean, crikeys, they only won one game last year. They were super young, and are still relatively so. While I think the potential is there for 4 or 5 win season, the potential is also there for a 1 or 2 win season. LEAN OVER
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 3 (+105 Over -145 Under)
Eastern Carolina
Carden to Hardy is gone, and the pass defense might still be missing. I see 4 games on the Pirates schedule that I really like them to lose, and I think CIN takes them in the home finale as well. Add in additional closely projected games and ECU could not make a Bowl this season. But...they recruit pretty well and will put talent at the missing positions, so they could also be a sleeper that wins its final 6 games of the year to get up to 8 for the season. It's a pass.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7 (-120 Over -120 Under)
Houston
There's plenty to be excited about as Houston fan this year with the hiring of HC Herman and the return of QB Ward. Ward was a receiver at the beginning of last season, so this is his first off season prepping as a QB, and Herman is the man responsible for working with OSU's amazing stable or QBs over the last few years. There is upside here, to say the least. They've got a new DC in Orlando, as well, and they'll be switching up the line formation. Probably not a huge deal as the defensive line was the weakness of the team last year. Asking for 9+ wins still seems like a lot for a team that finished with a TSC Power Ranking of 89th. To the schedule we go...
Can we find enough solid losses for this Cougar squad to make laying -210 juice a good bet on the Under? You know what? You can't. Other than @LOU in week #2, any other projected loss for HOU is by an average of just 4 points, and 4 of those 5 games come at home later in the season. Way too much possible variance here. Pass.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 8.5 (+160 Over -210 Under)
Memphis
Memphis returns most of an emerging offense this season, but loses as much defensive stopping power as any team in the AAC. The Tigers retain the services of the best punter and kicker combo in the AAC, hands down. Some may claim that Memphis' defense was much better than it's offense, but my stats didn't see it that way. I actually ranked their offense ahead of their defense at 41st versus 44th. There was really no other offense within spitting distance of CIN, MEM and ECU last year in the AAC. I have MEM with the #1 defense in the AAC last year, with only UCF within 10 ranks of them in the conference. They project out pretty close to CIN this season, but with one less raw win and 0.3 less ML projected wins. I even project CIN to win a squeaker at MEM this year. There are enough tricky spots on their schedule to stay away from a season play on MEM at 8.5. Pass.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 8.5 (-1.05 Over -1.25 Under)
SMU
SMU with the hiring of HC Chad Morris begins the process of turning a sloooooow, beat horse destined for the glue factory into a sleek, swift pony that is once again competitive. Morris gets the "benefit" of starting at the program when it's at its' absolute lowest point -- I ranked them as both the worst offense and defense in FBS last year.
SMU should get the win against James Madison, which perhaps gratefully comes a month into the season and not right at the onset. I like SMU to beat an equally squalid and less hopeful UNT at home in week #2. Tulsa at home in week #9 looks like an eminently winnable game as well. That would make 3. That -1.75 juice, though...any more wins on the schedule? The outlook is not great -- a possibility vs. Tulane, and a 1/4 chance @USF. Other than that it's a pretty tough schedule for SMU. This number does not appear to be one to flirt with.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 2.5 (-1.75 Over +1.35 Under)
Temple
God that Temple defense could be frustrating to bet against at home last year. The Owls frequently looked like flattened taxidermy on paper last year, only to rise up squawking to improbable covers and/or victories. Did anyone else go large on ECU @ TEM last year, only to have ECU lose outright after outgaining TEM 428 to 135 yards (#!@$##!) because of a 5-0 turnover margin? Filthy.
The Owls defense figures to be even better this year. They return all 11 starters on their defense, and 90% of their total tackles! That's an imposing stat, right there. I had them as the 4th best defense in the AAC last year (and much lower than other name brand ratings out there). They will probably move to the #1 spot this year.
The offense returns a lot of starters, yards and the QB as well. The kicker and punter? Returning, but of course.
That offense, though -- only 103rd best in the FBS last year. Ouch. They were closer to CONN, USF, TLSA and TULN numbers wise than the actually good offenses in the conference. It will be their shortcoming again.
Apparently the market is with me in not rating Temple's defense to be a top 20 squad, because 7 wins would seem pretty low otherwise, given the nature of their schedule. There are 3 likely losses on Temple's schedule, but after that, every game is winnable. I see about 6 highly wins on the schedule. So yeah, the line at 7 wins seems about right, with the small lean on the Over juice. Pass.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7 (-130 Over -110 Under)
Tulsa
Another offensive mastermind takes over as head coach for an AAC team. This time it's Phillip Montgomery, most recently the OC of Baylor's high octane offense. He won't have to start with a roster quite as bereft as SMU's, but it's not that much better. I see Tulsa losing a minimum of 7 games this year, which already puts them on the line on the O/U line of 5. Is their enough optimism for pessimism in Tulsa to lay the -160 juice on the Under?
Tulsa does start off with a couple of winnable games, vs FAU and @UNM. Then again, I project them to lose both by a field goal. Assuming a split, they then go on to lose at OKLA and at home against HOU (more than likely). They beat ULM in a close one at home, then lose at ECU and vs MEM. Let's say they do in fact beat SMU on the road. That brings them to 3 wins. They then lose handily @CIN and vs. Navy. Another disappointing season is capped off by a loss @TULN in week #13. 3 wins. Assuming improvement and a best case scenario that gets them to 5 wins, who would they have to beat for the Under 5 to lose? HOU, MEM, UCF or Navy at home, or ECU or CIN on the road. But that's only in the best case scenario. If they drop even one of those closely contested games, suddenly they have to beat two teams who are a step up in quality over them. And if they drop two close games...you get the picture.
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: TULSA UNDER 5 WINS
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 5 (+120 Over -160 Under)
Tulane
I frequently seem to like Tulane statistically in a match up, only to see them underperform, especially on offense. This number with the juice seems accurate, as the best, best case scenario for Tulane this season will be about 6 wins.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 5 (+145 Over -185 Under)
University of Central Florida
UCF was a squad I consistently found myself fading last year, with what seems like mixed results, if memory serves. They capped off the season with a final cap in my ass after the Hail Mary winner @ECU. It was that kind of season, lol.
This year UCF has to replace most of their starting secondary and linebacking corps. The d-line should still be pretty solid. Still, I ranked UCF's pass defense better than their run defense last year, so we're looking at a team that might find itself mediocre in the 4 match up categories.
The market seems equally unkeen to forecast a season as good as UCF has become accustomed to having over it's last few. 7 wins at -150 Over is not terribly optimistic. Is there any value one way or the other?
@STAN and @SCAR -- there are two probable losses. @CIN is another. I really only see 5 solid wins on their schedule, and that's being a bit generous given some of the spreads I've projected. I will probably be fading UCF in week #1 against FIU, and will keep on doing so if my lines tell me to. Given my raw projection of 8 wins (the optimist's view) and 6.1 projected ML wins (the realist's + my stat's natural pessimism for UCF's view) means I should probably just leave this line alone.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7 (-150 Over +110 Under)
University of South Florida
Nerp, unh-uh, not gonna' do it. In spite of the fact that I project USF to not lose any conference games by double digits, recent history of Willie Taggart's underperforming squad of Bulls indicate that they'll shit the bed on numerous occasions and get blown out anyway. And then...and then they'll win every close game they play meaning they'll probably end up right on the 4 games won after all.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 4 (-105 Over -135 Under)
Navy
Well hello, sailor! Navy joins the AAC this year and is instantly the best team in the conference. Yup, that's what my TSC Power Rankings say. This in spite of the fact that they had 5 losses last year. Why? Because their run offense is So. God. Damn. Good. On top of that, when passes were needed either for obvious passing downs or for any down unpredictability, Keenan Reynolds could deliver. This kind of offense can be deadly, and difficult to shut down. Just ask anyone who played GT last year. Navy's defense last year was a little below average by AAC standards, but the offense more than makes up for it.
I have Navy winning 8 games this season by more than a touchdown. I project close wins @HOU, vs ECU and @MEM. The only raw loss I project is @ND. I'm going to bet on that bottom floor of 8 wins for Navy, and hope they stay healthy, especially at the QB position.
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: NAVY OVER 7.5 WINS
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (-130 Over -110 Under)
The Sports Cruncher's 2015 Mountain West Conference Team Wins Analysis
Here's the fifth and final mid major conference team wins analysis, and the one I've found the most to like, with 5 plays, and some strong leans on top of that.
The MAC and AAC will be the most competitive, in terms of parity, of the mid majors, according to my projections.
Air Force Academy
The Falcons had a solid season last year, and oddly enough had a run defense that was much, much stronger than their run offense. Heck, their pass offense was their best unit of all!
With the loss of their QB, solid place kicker and much of their defensive depth, regression seems highly likely given the unlikely success of a 10 win season last year on the heels of a 2 win season. This is not a program that is going to recruit double digit wins every year. Looking at the schedule and my numbers, splitting the difference of 2 and 10 to land on 6 seems is the right number for Air Force this year. Pass.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 6 (-160 Over +120 Under)
Boise State
The Broncos will have to go with inexperience at QB this year, and don't look to have a formidable group of running backs. That is it, though, for actual weaknesses that might not turn out to be weaknesses given the talent and depth around them. The Broncos are super solid in the trenches and the perimeters. What will probably derail the Broncos from running the table this year is that their 3 toughest games all come in the first month, vs. WASH, @BYU and @UVA. I think those games will all be tougher than their trip to Logan to face USU in week #7. Odds are that BSU will lose one of those September games. After that I think they win the rest, with the only potential testers being the aforementioned USU game and a week #6 games @CSU (who might regress more than predicted this year). Getting any plus juice at all on the Over is a bonus which I'll gladly take as I think 2 losses is the worst case scenario. If the worst worst case scenario of 3+ losses happens, then c'est la vie, and sucks to be me (or a Broncos fan).
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: BSU OVER 10 WINS
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 10 (+110 Over -140 Under)
Colorado State
CSU gets former UGA OC Bobo in his first HC gig after McElwain's departure to FLA. The only other big "?" of the season is replacing the best CSU has had in ages. Still a ton of talent on offense and the defense is set to be even better. The only two really probable losses on the schedule are @MINN and @BSU. CSU has the potential to challenge for the win @USU. SDSU will be another tough game, even at home. That being said, there are also only 3 highly likely wins on the schedule as well, leaving half the games as one score affairs, though I do like CSU to win the bulk of those. With the + juice on the I'd lean Over, but it's a pass.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (+140 Over -180 Under)
Fresno State
The Raisin Runners game shriveled last year after losing some top talent, most notably QB Derek Carr. Rice > Raisins we found out in the Bowls last year, as sharp money backed the winning ingredient all the way to the bank.
Fresno lost a bunch more players heading into this year, and is really in rebuild mode now. A winning record, let alone five hundred, will be a difficult chore for them this year. Other than a week #1 cupcake, they might not find a win on their schedule until week #7 vs. UNLV. After that they rate to pick up a couple of wins in games @AFA, vs. NEV, @HAW and vs. CSU. So the 4 wins of the raw wins projections seems right, and in my opinion closer to the truth than the 5.6 ML projection, in this case. If anything, I'd lean the Under with the +juice here, but it's a pass, as even the slightest unexpected improvement will get them to 4 wins leaving us on the wrong end of a freeroll.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 4 (-190 Over +150 Under)
Hawaii
Not a lot of pride in the Rainbow Warriors parade of losing seasons under Norm Chow at this point. The Over/Under on him lasting the season as HC might be closer to even money than the very lopsided seasons win line. There will be some intrigue if the former Trojan Statue of Inefficiency, Max Wittek, gets the starts at QB this season. New OC Bailey brings his Idaho State Spuds on Steroids speed of play to Spam land this year. If what's good for spuds is good for Spam Hawaii could be an entertaining team that flirts with 4 or 5 wins this season. The Under 6 looks like free money, which is why there's a -270 price tag attached to it. For the bet to lose they'd have to win 4 games which I project them to be an average dog of almost 7 points. So, so unlikely, that I'm willing to tie up over 1% of the season's bankroll on a half unit payoff at the end of the season.
ADDING TO WIN 1/2 UNIT: HAWAII UNDER 6 WINS
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 6 (+190 Over -270 Under)
Nevada
The Wolfpack lose the main ingredient of their Offensive Fajita with Fajardo graduating. Fajardo was their Pistol Power -- will Nevada look like a neutered flower on offense this year?
Nevada's defense was not as good as the final scores would have you believe last year. You can call it a "bend don't break" defense, I call it getting more than your fair share of luck in the red zone. Nevada had the 2nd best yards to points allowed ratio in the MWC last year, giving up 3.8 points per game less than the yards allowed usually surrenders.
While it's entirely possible the floor drops out of Nevada's 2015 season, there are still 7 winnable games on the schedule. But let's look at the ceiling; with games vs. ARIZ, @TA&M, @USU and @SDSU that's a pretty near guaranteed 4 losses. If NEV loses just one more game you're free rolling on the Under. With games @BUFF (I project a close win), vs. UNM (ditto), @WYO (ditto), @FRES (close loss projected) and vs. SJSU (close win projected) it is of course likely they lose 1+ more games. In this shaky floor versus a solid ceiling scenario, I think a shot against a regressing Wolfpack is worth it.
ADDING TO WIN 1/2 UNIT: NEVADA UNDER 7 WINS
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7 (+150 Over -190 Under)
San Diego State University
The Aztecs have the 2nd best return rate of defensive strength from last year in the MWC, behind only BSU. With AFA, CSU and USU due for some normal regression, SDSU is poised to become the actual 2nd best defense in the MWC.
They'll need that defensive solidity, as the Achilles heel located in their quarterback's helmet can only be cautiously upgraded from Greek Tragedy to a parlor mystery. RB Pumphrey is no parlor mystery, however, he's a magnet for defenses that still shows the ability to shrug off defenders with the apparent flip of a polarity switch. SDSU's bottom 10 pass offense will find it impossible to be any worse, which will either allow to Pumphrey to continue piling up yards, or make defenses pay the price with more successful passing plays. All 3 of the Aztecs match up units I ranked in the 50s. If the passing game can leave the triple digits of despair, this will be a very dangerous team this year.
The raw W/L projections reflect that potential, with 10 wins. The ML projections tamp that down to 8.6 wins. Is the Over with the stiff juice worth a shot? Let's look at the ceiling. Games @CAL and @PSU should be losses, but I rate a slightly better than 50% chance that SDSU could steal one of these games, which would create some early season waves. Let's assume them losses for now, as well as @CSU and vs. USU (even though I project SDSU to win both these contests. In this worst case so far scenario, there's the 4 loss buffer, gone. As for the floor, I project SDSU to have 7 double digit wins. That leaves one game to decide this stand off between best case/worst case scenarios -- week #7 at SJSU. I like SDSU to win this game by a touchdown.
Because I'd kick myself if I didn't make a winning bet on the Over here, I'm compelled to play it, but with less exposure risking half a unit, not to win half a unit.
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: SDSU OVER 7.5 GAMES
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7 .5 (-175 Over +135 Under)
San Jose State University
SJSU signed a ridiculously high recruiting class this year, and they could certainly use any immediate return on those signees, as their team stumbled right on back to their pre-David Fales level of offensive ineptitude. The Spartans did a horrific job at converting yards into points, and on defense a near equally lousy job at stopping opponents from converting their yards into points, ranking last in the MWC in both categories by a not even close margin. Speaking of not even close, SJSU's pass defense I rated 9th last year...but their fun defense 95th. Given the choice between facing Jeckyll or Hyde
on defense, teams chose to plow over Hyde with the run over, and over, and over again. 70% of all plays run against SJSU were runs, 15% higher than the FBS average.
I think the Over or Under season wins for SJSU will come down to games vs. Fresno and their trip to Hawaii late in the season. I do project SJSU to win those games against rebuilding Fresno and a mostly hapless Hawaii, but I think I'll pass, as I've already found several wagers I like in the MWC. STRONG LEAN OVER
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 4 (-125 Over -115 Under)
University of Nevada Las Vegas
With nowhere to go but up (or so the thinking goes) UNLV has hired a high school coach to run the Rebel Revue. QB Decker wasn't horrible in trying to shoulder the entire offense last year. It's a plus that he's returning. So while they look to improve offensively with some decent backs and receivers, the offensive line lost more starts than they return, so it's all back up in the air again.
A defensive reset up front as well doesn't guarantee any improvement for a bottom 5 defense, but at least they can't get much worse.
I'm not sure UNLV will even be favored at home versus Idaho State in week #4. That should knock off a full half game from the ML projection and make the raw record win shaky. The only other winnable game, really is at home versus Hawaii. What other games could they win to get more than 2, assuming they win the 2? @WYO in the final week could be close, but late season Wyoming weather and late season "who gives a shit last game on the roaditis" make a UNLV upset seem less likely in reality than on paper. At home against SJSU in the middle of the season? It's possible, but SJSU has way more upside than UNLV this season. Beyond that is a litany of possible and probably blow out losses. Unfortunately for UNLV they have to face the weaker parts of their schedule almost exclusively on the road. No part of your schedule is that weak, though, when you're the weaker team against everyone but a possible FCS squad. I'm so tempted to take the Under here. If the line were 3 games at even -200 juice I'd jump on that, as it seems like a free roll. STRONG LEAN UNDER
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 2.5 (+105 Over -145 Under)
University of New Mexico
The line squares up exactly with my projections, but let's take a quick look.
The Lobos had a running game that threatened to beat many tougher opponents last year, but unfortunately a defense that threatens to forget which side of the field they're defending at times. But about that running game...I rated it tops in the MWC, just edging out BSU and NEV. Jhurell Pressley averaged an insane 9.5 ypc on over 100 carries, making Teriyon Gipson at 5.5 ypc look like the red-headed stepchild of the backfield. QB Jordan was a freshman last year, so there's definite upside there.
Counting on more continuity in the defensive personnel and product, how many games can the Lobos hope to win this season? I think 4 wins is the floor, with a cupcake, Tulsa and their terrible run defense at home in week #2, New Mexico State at home in week 5, and the poor mainland playing Hawaii in week #7. That's 4 home game probable wins. After that, though the remaining home games will be very tough against USU, CSU and AFA in the final month, when roster depth or lack thereof can really take a toll. New Mexico still rates to win one of those games, with their best chance being against Air Force. The -175 juice, however, makes 6 wins the safe number to look at. Can they get another win? They could win at Wyoming in week #4, as well as at Nevada or even SJSU. If UNM's defense improves, as well as the passing game, the Lobos suddenly have the potential to win 10 games, with "for sure" losses only at ASU and BSU. I'm going to bet that that improvement is realized to at least a small degree, which is all that is needed for the Over to cash.
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: UNM OVER 4.5 WINS
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 4.5 (-175 Over +135 Under)
Utah State University
The Aggies are becoming rather accustomed to over-performing versus their recruiting rankings. Can it continue? A tough schedule will make it hard to have a phenomenal season. If USU drops off at all from last year's level of play they'll find themselves walking the razor's edge in game after game this season, as the only double digit win I project them having is in week #1 against FCS Southern Utah. Still, the Aggies seem bullet proof, as they continued to play well last year when even down to their 4th string or so quarterback.
Two new coordinators throw in some question marks this year, even if they run near the same systems. I think it will be hard for their run defense to play at the same level, it's the only squad where I'm projecting some back sliding. QB Keeton and his now bum knees didn't do well last year, and he actually posted the worst numbers of all the QBs who played last year, though having to face TENN was a non-luxury the other QBs enjoyed. But as they proved last year, they can sit him just as easily as not.
My projections square up pretty tightly with the posted line, so it's a pass.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (-110 Over -120 Under)
Wyoming
The passing game was the only bright spot for the Cowboys last year, but WYO loses both its' starting QB but its' top two WR as well. That and other player losses will make it hard for 2nd year coach Pohl to make any real headway this year. With a ML projection of 4.9 wins, this is a pass.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 5 (-120 Over -120 Under)
Thanks, MF...err, MetFan. I guess that's one name that shouldn't be abbreviated, lol.
The Sports Cruncher's 2015 ACC Team Wins Analysis
Boston College
It's hard to predict how hard BC will be hit from the loss of their entire offensive line + QB this season. They had a top 20 rush offense last year, and provided good betting value for most of the season, winning as outright dogs on multiple occasions. I have the loss of starters factored into my regression formulas -- but BC tests the outer boundaries with so much turnover. We'll have to wait and see. LEAN OVER
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 5.5 (-125 Over -105 Under)
Clemson
A lot rides on the health of QB Watson for the Tigers this year. When he's missed with injuries Clemson's offense takes a huge dip. With or without Watson Clemson had a pretty disappointing run offense last year, ranking near the bottom of the ACC (a hair above VT and slightly better than WAKE -- gulp). The lack of a run game (and Watson) made Clemson a good fade at times last year, including one of my favorite scenarios, when I take a big dog and state that they might not even have to score to cover the spread. That's exactly what happened when I took a terrible Georgia State team against the Tigers last year.
Looking at the schedule, Clemson has a floor of 5 wins, but virtually no ceiling. I project 8 of their games to be decided by less than one score, and with their toughest games being vs. FSU, vs. ND and @MIA, with a little luck they could make a surprise run at an undefeated regular season. But luck runs both ways, and it hasn't run well for Clemson as of late -- if Watson goes down or plays hurt Clemson could be looking at that floor instead of the perfect ceiling. It's a definite pass on a season wins play for Clemson.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 9 (-105 Over -125 Under)
Duke
Duke is a stats based handicappers enemy. Duke is my enemy. They over perform and cover/win more than they should. Is it hidden special teams talent, superior coaching? A prolonged streak of luck? They are the opposite of SJSU (who I profiled earlier), scoring 5 more points than should each game for the yards gained, while giving up almost a full touchdown less of points for the yards they give up (versus FBS averages). Bend but don't break or beautiful bastards? Duke graduated a lot of offensive "talent." I'm itching to ride the Duke Fade Train once again, even if it leads straight into a mountainside a good portion of the time again.
I'm looking at a floor of 3 wins for Duke, and a ceiling of 7 or 8 games. That's some value I can work with, especially with the +juice line.
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: DUKE UNDER 7 WINS
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7 (-150 Over +120 Under)
Florida State
FSU loses QB Winston and almost all of their career starts on the offensive line. The regression is factored in, and even a bit more manually because Winston is worth quite a bit more than the average graduating QB, like him or not (mostly not, I'm guessing). Even still, because it's a year that finds the better teams in the ACC with their own rebuilding projects, I project FSU to be the favorite in each game they play this year. They recruit at a much higher level than their conference competition, and even much better than the SEC Florida they play in the final week. This recruiting and transfers advantage means FSU has the capability of not dropping off in quality as much as everyone hopes they do. No team was as consistently over valued versus the point spread as the 'Noles last year (like the Patriots in the NFL for so many years) -- it will be interesting to see which way the value goes in their games this year. I definitely lean on the OVER for the season play, but with road games @GT, @CLEM and @FLA in the second half of the season, I'm probably going to pass. MIA and LOU will be tough challenges as well. I wouldn't want to sweat the Over heading into a game against the Gators in week #13. LEAN OVER
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 9.5 (+100 Over -1300 Under)
Georgia Tech
I just wrote about FSU, the most over-valued team versus the spread last year, and now we move right on to possibly the most under-valued, GT. Let's jump back even one more team to another fade-favorite, Duke. Duke managed to upset GT last year in spite of being outgained by 110 yards, being outgained in ypc, and especially in ypp (7.7 to 5.0). Duke was the only team without an excellent offense to beat GT last year (UNC and FSU the other two victors). Yes, the Yellow Jackets defense was clearly not the strength of their team, but they improved in the second half of the year, which helped them crush PITT, UVA, NCST, CLEM and upset UGA in that span. That's pretty impressive. Like everyone else, they let FSU win a close one against them, and then GT handled MSST pretty easily in a Bowl game, a win which yes, I did predict.
GT loses some offensive skill this year, but still keep the most important piece, their QB, as well as most of their offensive line. Their young defense should be better this year, and they return the kicker and punter. In theory, they could be nearly as good as last year. They have, however, a pretty damn tough schedule, meaning there's no value on the season Over play, especially with the juice. Pass.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (-175 Over +145 Under)
Louisville
The Cardinals are ready to challenge Clemson as the best defense in the ACC, but unproven passing chemistry will likely stop LOU from being the best overall team in the conference. With a pretty solid floor of 6 wins I'm looking strongly at the OVER right now. LOU has only game on their schedule projected as a 2+ score loss, and that's AUB in week #1. Still, they've got a 25% chance to steal the upset there. Beyond that I project them to lose at FSU and that's it. I think they beat CLEM at home in a tight one, as well as potentially tough games @PITT, @UK and @NCST. With the line set at 7.5, that's 4 losses to work with. With the success of the team not riding on the health of a star QB, I like LOU's chances for the season to play at pretty close to the projections, nabbing 8 or 9 wins. Even if LOU loses 4 games in the first two months, they have a chance to win out in their last 6 games. I hope it doesn't come down to that, lol.
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: LOU OVER 7.5
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (-135 Over +105 Under)
Miami
The Hurricanes brought in a flood of ticket window cash midway through the season last year, only to see them go from playing like one of the best teams in the country to fall out of even being in the top 25 when the season ended. A decent chunk of that profit got swept right back out to sea with the tide.
QB Kaaya was possibly the best freshman QB in the FBS last year -- it will be exciting to see how his potential unfolds. This year could have it's ups and downs, though. Top RB Johnson, the top receiver, top tight end and 3 top linemen are gone. Looking at the numbers I'm not worried about replacing The Duke, honestly. Dorsett was a good receiver, but a good QB is infinitely more valuable than a good WR. The offensive line wasn't that great last year, really, and they've got a ton of juniors and sophomores to work with. Miami could be a very scary offense in a couple of years, if not immediately.
Taken as a whole, Miami's stats were still pretty impressive last year, and from what I can see they are leading me to be more optimistic than the market (to say the least). Right now I already 7 games that I project as double digit wins for Miami, and there's not a single game on their schedule that they don't have a very good chance of winning. There are a lot of dangerous teams in the ACC, but I'm going to bet that Miami can beat their fair share of them.
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: MIA OVER 6.5
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 6.5 (+100 Over -135 Under)
North Carolina State
The Wolfpack provided some sneaky good value late last year, covering their final 3 including upset wins @ UNC and vs UCF in a Bowl, a game of which I wrote that NCST would emerge as the winner and superior team. Nice to be right on calls like that! lol
NCST gets QB Brissett's senior season in 2015. He's a dual threat who is better at the run, but made good decisions in compiling a 23-5 TD-INT ratio last year. I rated NCST's run offense 2nd best in the ACC, edging out BC for that position (while well behind GT, of course). NCST returns a lot of starters and yards this year, though a couple of surprise transfers hurt their WR depth.
The Wolfpack defense was slightly below average by ACC standards (which are fairly high, with an average defensive ranking of 41 versus 52 for the offenses in the conference last year). A change in defensive alignment this year means it's up in the air as to whether NCST can maintain the defensive improvement they showed in the 2nd half of the season last year. The kicker and punter are both gone, too.
NCST has a soft mid major loaded out of conference schedule this year, giving them a quick floor of 4 wins to open the season. Add Wake to make it 5. And Syracuse to 6? More than likely. That means they need 2 more wins to get the Over. But games vs. LOU, @VT, CLEM, @BC, @FSU and vs UNC means there is no guarantee that they will. Pass.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (-110 Over -120 Under)
Pittsburgh
Given that Pittsburgh gets about the weakest recruit rankings in the ACC, they seem to do a pretty good job of fielding competitive teams capable of beating any other team in the conference on any given Saturday. Or lose to Akron. Or give up 3 scores to Houston, for God's sake, in the final 3 minutes of a Bowl game to yack up the win and cover (that loss still stings).
The strength of the Panther's team, the offense, is set to be even better this year, returning almost everybody. If QB Voytik gets injured, though, it will be a huge blow.
New HC Narduzzi will be trying to imprint his MSU defensive mojo as quickly as possible to shore up Pitt's lackluster defense. They've had depth issues that won't be easy to solve this year.
PITT's schedule is such that I only project them to lose two games by more than one score, @GT and vs. MIA. I know my MIA lines tend to be inflated, I doubt the actual spread will be more than 7 when that game comes in the final week. So while the ceiling for wins has a high, unknowable potential, the same could be said of the floor in the opposite direction. They play a lot of solid teams. After an opening cupcake and revenge match @AKR there are no easy wins on the schedule (except @DUKE with as much as my numbers love to fade those Blue Devils). Too much variance, and too much riding on the health of QB Voytik. Pass.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 6 (-130 Over +100 Under)
Syracuse
Any gains SYR might have had from returning a healthy Hunt at QB will be negated by losing more defensive starters and tackles than any other team in the ACC this year. The Orange should pick up 3 non-conference wins, plus Wake at home -- beyond that they'll be a dog in every other game. Pass.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 4.5 (-105 Over -125 Under)
University of North Carolina
The offense was 70 ranks higher than the defense last year. The offense returns almost everyone. QB Williams is a real dual threat, but any time one player carries such a huge bulk of the offense, exposing themselves to so much risk of injury, you have to worry. Williams had a very high 169 rushes last year, almost 50% more than the tailback with the 2nd most rushes on the team. Williams and the UNC proved they could move the ball and score on any defense last year, but they lacked consistency.
The Tarheels have gone in for a complete defensive overhaul after their abysmal showing last year, bringing in Gene Chizik as DC with all new position coaches. Chizik has been out of the game for a couple of years -- it will be interesting to see how quickly he can get results. There is talent and returning players.
It looks like UNC has a solid floor of 5 wins (of mostly the usual non-con and FCS + Wake variety). Stuck in that log jam of good but not great ACC teams, though, UNC is just another team we'll have to pass on as they fight each other for wins in the 2nd half of the season.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (-145 Over +115 Under)
University of Virginia
The Cavaliers seemed to be exactly that when I wagered for or against them on several occasions last year -- their level of play rarely matching the expectation I'd assigned them beforehand (except for the auto-bet FSU fade, of course). UVA had a surprisingly balanced and strong top 20 defense, in my book, with the offense lagging far behind at 59th. QB Lambert is gone, but his numbers weren't any better than Johns, who had near 1/3 of the play time anyway.
Both the offense and defense lost more than their fair share of starters heading into this year, but we're not talking total decimation here. The units rate to finish closer to each other than they finished last year, but man, what a schedule the Cavs have this year. They've got a 3 win floor, but only about a 6 win ceiling, barring some huge breakthroughs and luck. It's a pass on the season wins total.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 4 (-120 Over -110 Under)
Virginia Tech
Another top 20 VT defense was done in by a dud offense last year. The Hokies were fairly young last year, so the injuries that hit them hurt harder than it might other teams. This year that means more experience and depth across the roster. VT is predicted to have a bounce back year, but I'll trust that offense only after I see it produce for a couple of games. They put up such horrible offensive numbers last year, reflected in my numbers and projections, that it's hard to gauge how big of bounce back that they will have, especially if they can stay healthy and gel (which they couldn't do last year).
Certainly the line makers and market look for a healthy rebound, with O/U of 8 wins. They're dogs in week #1 against OSU, but that line is creeping down toward single digits with OSU player suspensions. A loss there only affords them two more on the season to cash the Over. With game @ MIA and @GT I think their buffer is maxed. PITT and NCST will be tough outs, even at home, as will games vs UNC and @UVA.
Still, this a team who couldn't score in regulation against Wake Forest's 73rd ranked defense, for cry eye! Man, this is a tough call. The truth is, with even a moderately improved offense VT could nab another 3 conference wins, putting them at 9 for the year. Grr, guess I'll have to pass. LEAN UNDER
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 8 (-115 Over -115 Under)
The Sports Cruncher's 2015 ACC Team Wins Analysis
Boston College
It's hard to predict how hard BC will be hit from the loss of their entire offensive line + QB this season. They had a top 20 rush offense last year, and provided good betting value for most of the season, winning as outright dogs on multiple occasions. I have the loss of starters factored into my regression formulas -- but BC tests the outer boundaries with so much turnover. We'll have to wait and see. LEAN OVER
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 5.5 (-125 Over -105 Under)
Clemson
A lot rides on the health of QB Watson for the Tigers this year. When he's missed with injuries Clemson's offense takes a huge dip. With or without Watson Clemson had a pretty disappointing run offense last year, ranking near the bottom of the ACC (a hair above VT and slightly better than WAKE -- gulp). The lack of a run game (and Watson) made Clemson a good fade at times last year, including one of my favorite scenarios, when I take a big dog and state that they might not even have to score to cover the spread. That's exactly what happened when I took a terrible Georgia State team against the Tigers last year.
Looking at the schedule, Clemson has a floor of 5 wins, but virtually no ceiling. I project 8 of their games to be decided by less than one score, and with their toughest games being vs. FSU, vs. ND and @MIA, with a little luck they could make a surprise run at an undefeated regular season. But luck runs both ways, and it hasn't run well for Clemson as of late -- if Watson goes down or plays hurt Clemson could be looking at that floor instead of the perfect ceiling. It's a definite pass on a season wins play for Clemson.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 9 (-105 Over -125 Under)
Duke
Duke is a stats based handicappers enemy. Duke is my enemy. They over perform and cover/win more than they should. Is it hidden special teams talent, superior coaching? A prolonged streak of luck? They are the opposite of SJSU (who I profiled earlier), scoring 5 more points than should each game for the yards gained, while giving up almost a full touchdown less of points for the yards they give up (versus FBS averages). Bend but don't break or beautiful bastards? Duke graduated a lot of offensive "talent." I'm itching to ride the Duke Fade Train once again, even if it leads straight into a mountainside a good portion of the time again.
I'm looking at a floor of 3 wins for Duke, and a ceiling of 7 or 8 games. That's some value I can work with, especially with the +juice line.
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: DUKE UNDER 7 WINS
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7 (-150 Over +120 Under)
Florida State
FSU loses QB Winston and almost all of their career starts on the offensive line. The regression is factored in, and even a bit more manually because Winston is worth quite a bit more than the average graduating QB, like him or not (mostly not, I'm guessing). Even still, because it's a year that finds the better teams in the ACC with their own rebuilding projects, I project FSU to be the favorite in each game they play this year. They recruit at a much higher level than their conference competition, and even much better than the SEC Florida they play in the final week. This recruiting and transfers advantage means FSU has the capability of not dropping off in quality as much as everyone hopes they do. No team was as consistently over valued versus the point spread as the 'Noles last year (like the Patriots in the NFL for so many years) -- it will be interesting to see which way the value goes in their games this year. I definitely lean on the OVER for the season play, but with road games @GT, @CLEM and @FLA in the second half of the season, I'm probably going to pass. MIA and LOU will be tough challenges as well. I wouldn't want to sweat the Over heading into a game against the Gators in week #13. LEAN OVER
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 9.5 (+100 Over -1300 Under)
Georgia Tech
I just wrote about FSU, the most over-valued team versus the spread last year, and now we move right on to possibly the most under-valued, GT. Let's jump back even one more team to another fade-favorite, Duke. Duke managed to upset GT last year in spite of being outgained by 110 yards, being outgained in ypc, and especially in ypp (7.7 to 5.0). Duke was the only team without an excellent offense to beat GT last year (UNC and FSU the other two victors). Yes, the Yellow Jackets defense was clearly not the strength of their team, but they improved in the second half of the year, which helped them crush PITT, UVA, NCST, CLEM and upset UGA in that span. That's pretty impressive. Like everyone else, they let FSU win a close one against them, and then GT handled MSST pretty easily in a Bowl game, a win which yes, I did predict.
GT loses some offensive skill this year, but still keep the most important piece, their QB, as well as most of their offensive line. Their young defense should be better this year, and they return the kicker and punter. In theory, they could be nearly as good as last year. They have, however, a pretty damn tough schedule, meaning there's no value on the season Over play, especially with the juice. Pass.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (-175 Over +145 Under)
Louisville
The Cardinals are ready to challenge Clemson as the best defense in the ACC, but unproven passing chemistry will likely stop LOU from being the best overall team in the conference. With a pretty solid floor of 6 wins I'm looking strongly at the OVER right now. LOU has only game on their schedule projected as a 2+ score loss, and that's AUB in week #1. Still, they've got a 25% chance to steal the upset there. Beyond that I project them to lose at FSU and that's it. I think they beat CLEM at home in a tight one, as well as potentially tough games @PITT, @UK and @NCST. With the line set at 7.5, that's 4 losses to work with. With the success of the team not riding on the health of a star QB, I like LOU's chances for the season to play at pretty close to the projections, nabbing 8 or 9 wins. Even if LOU loses 4 games in the first two months, they have a chance to win out in their last 6 games. I hope it doesn't come down to that, lol.
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: LOU OVER 7.5
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (-135 Over +105 Under)
Miami
The Hurricanes brought in a flood of ticket window cash midway through the season last year, only to see them go from playing like one of the best teams in the country to fall out of even being in the top 25 when the season ended. A decent chunk of that profit got swept right back out to sea with the tide.
QB Kaaya was possibly the best freshman QB in the FBS last year -- it will be exciting to see how his potential unfolds. This year could have it's ups and downs, though. Top RB Johnson, the top receiver, top tight end and 3 top linemen are gone. Looking at the numbers I'm not worried about replacing The Duke, honestly. Dorsett was a good receiver, but a good QB is infinitely more valuable than a good WR. The offensive line wasn't that great last year, really, and they've got a ton of juniors and sophomores to work with. Miami could be a very scary offense in a couple of years, if not immediately.
Taken as a whole, Miami's stats were still pretty impressive last year, and from what I can see they are leading me to be more optimistic than the market (to say the least). Right now I already 7 games that I project as double digit wins for Miami, and there's not a single game on their schedule that they don't have a very good chance of winning. There are a lot of dangerous teams in the ACC, but I'm going to bet that Miami can beat their fair share of them.
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: MIA OVER 6.5
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 6.5 (+100 Over -135 Under)
North Carolina State
The Wolfpack provided some sneaky good value late last year, covering their final 3 including upset wins @ UNC and vs UCF in a Bowl, a game of which I wrote that NCST would emerge as the winner and superior team. Nice to be right on calls like that! lol
NCST gets QB Brissett's senior season in 2015. He's a dual threat who is better at the run, but made good decisions in compiling a 23-5 TD-INT ratio last year. I rated NCST's run offense 2nd best in the ACC, edging out BC for that position (while well behind GT, of course). NCST returns a lot of starters and yards this year, though a couple of surprise transfers hurt their WR depth.
The Wolfpack defense was slightly below average by ACC standards (which are fairly high, with an average defensive ranking of 41 versus 52 for the offenses in the conference last year). A change in defensive alignment this year means it's up in the air as to whether NCST can maintain the defensive improvement they showed in the 2nd half of the season last year. The kicker and punter are both gone, too.
NCST has a soft mid major loaded out of conference schedule this year, giving them a quick floor of 4 wins to open the season. Add Wake to make it 5. And Syracuse to 6? More than likely. That means they need 2 more wins to get the Over. But games vs. LOU, @VT, CLEM, @BC, @FSU and vs UNC means there is no guarantee that they will. Pass.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (-110 Over -120 Under)
Pittsburgh
Given that Pittsburgh gets about the weakest recruit rankings in the ACC, they seem to do a pretty good job of fielding competitive teams capable of beating any other team in the conference on any given Saturday. Or lose to Akron. Or give up 3 scores to Houston, for God's sake, in the final 3 minutes of a Bowl game to yack up the win and cover (that loss still stings).
The strength of the Panther's team, the offense, is set to be even better this year, returning almost everybody. If QB Voytik gets injured, though, it will be a huge blow.
New HC Narduzzi will be trying to imprint his MSU defensive mojo as quickly as possible to shore up Pitt's lackluster defense. They've had depth issues that won't be easy to solve this year.
PITT's schedule is such that I only project them to lose two games by more than one score, @GT and vs. MIA. I know my MIA lines tend to be inflated, I doubt the actual spread will be more than 7 when that game comes in the final week. So while the ceiling for wins has a high, unknowable potential, the same could be said of the floor in the opposite direction. They play a lot of solid teams. After an opening cupcake and revenge match @AKR there are no easy wins on the schedule (except @DUKE with as much as my numbers love to fade those Blue Devils). Too much variance, and too much riding on the health of QB Voytik. Pass.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 6 (-130 Over +100 Under)
Syracuse
Any gains SYR might have had from returning a healthy Hunt at QB will be negated by losing more defensive starters and tackles than any other team in the ACC this year. The Orange should pick up 3 non-conference wins, plus Wake at home -- beyond that they'll be a dog in every other game. Pass.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 4.5 (-105 Over -125 Under)
University of North Carolina
The offense was 70 ranks higher than the defense last year. The offense returns almost everyone. QB Williams is a real dual threat, but any time one player carries such a huge bulk of the offense, exposing themselves to so much risk of injury, you have to worry. Williams had a very high 169 rushes last year, almost 50% more than the tailback with the 2nd most rushes on the team. Williams and the UNC proved they could move the ball and score on any defense last year, but they lacked consistency.
The Tarheels have gone in for a complete defensive overhaul after their abysmal showing last year, bringing in Gene Chizik as DC with all new position coaches. Chizik has been out of the game for a couple of years -- it will be interesting to see how quickly he can get results. There is talent and returning players.
It looks like UNC has a solid floor of 5 wins (of mostly the usual non-con and FCS + Wake variety). Stuck in that log jam of good but not great ACC teams, though, UNC is just another team we'll have to pass on as they fight each other for wins in the 2nd half of the season.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (-145 Over +115 Under)
University of Virginia
The Cavaliers seemed to be exactly that when I wagered for or against them on several occasions last year -- their level of play rarely matching the expectation I'd assigned them beforehand (except for the auto-bet FSU fade, of course). UVA had a surprisingly balanced and strong top 20 defense, in my book, with the offense lagging far behind at 59th. QB Lambert is gone, but his numbers weren't any better than Johns, who had near 1/3 of the play time anyway.
Both the offense and defense lost more than their fair share of starters heading into this year, but we're not talking total decimation here. The units rate to finish closer to each other than they finished last year, but man, what a schedule the Cavs have this year. They've got a 3 win floor, but only about a 6 win ceiling, barring some huge breakthroughs and luck. It's a pass on the season wins total.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 4 (-120 Over -110 Under)
Virginia Tech
Another top 20 VT defense was done in by a dud offense last year. The Hokies were fairly young last year, so the injuries that hit them hurt harder than it might other teams. This year that means more experience and depth across the roster. VT is predicted to have a bounce back year, but I'll trust that offense only after I see it produce for a couple of games. They put up such horrible offensive numbers last year, reflected in my numbers and projections, that it's hard to gauge how big of bounce back that they will have, especially if they can stay healthy and gel (which they couldn't do last year).
Certainly the line makers and market look for a healthy rebound, with O/U of 8 wins. They're dogs in week #1 against OSU, but that line is creeping down toward single digits with OSU player suspensions. A loss there only affords them two more on the season to cash the Over. With game @ MIA and @GT I think their buffer is maxed. PITT and NCST will be tough outs, even at home, as will games vs UNC and @UVA.
Still, this a team who couldn't score in regulation against Wake Forest's 73rd ranked defense, for cry eye! Man, this is a tough call. The truth is, with even a moderately improved offense VT could nab another 3 conference wins, putting them at 9 for the year. Grr, guess I'll have to pass. LEAN UNDER
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 8 (-115 Over -115 Under)
Did I forget to cover Wake Forest, a 2014 fade favorite? Why it looks like I did, lol. I project them to lose, a lot. They can get 4 wins if they beat Elon, Army, Syracuse and Duke. I don't think they will (beyond the first two), but hey, they're young and return a more mature squad. Nothing but upside for them, really. Pass.
The Sports Cruncher's 2015 Big 10 Team Wins Analysis
Illinois
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 4.5 (+100 Over -130 Under)
Illinois showed progress down the stretch last year, but were still predictably trounced by a Conference USA team, LT, in a Bowl. The Illini defense was fairly weak, across the board, but their offense didn't fare too badly, really, given the tough schedule of Big 10 defenses they faced. Still, when looking at the passing numbers, you can see that the team stocked up on yards in the first month, mostly before conference play began. In their first five games they averaged 342 passing yards, after that against the tougher defenses it dropped all the way down to 152.
Illinois plays the exact same 8 teams in the final 8 weeks as they did last year. This year the difference in home and away games should stop Illinois from bagging the same late season upsets that saw them just qualify for a Bowl last year. While they were able to narrowly beat MINN and PSU at home last year, I don't think they'll do that on the road this year. After the first batch of winnable games this year, Illinois gets NEB, WIS, OSU and NW at home. That's rough. I have the NW game as a toss up, and the other as double digit losses. 4 wins looks like the right number for Illinois this year.
Indiana
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 5.5 (-105 Over -125 Under)
The Hoosiers had a great offense last year until they lost every player to injury remotely capable of playing QB midway through the season. The running game still did pretty well, and that's with defenses knowing it was the only thing they really had to try and stop. Not factoring in the elements of scoring deficits and win % Indiana had a near top ten run offense. QB Sudfield returns, but the man responsible for the Hoosiers amazing run game, Tevin Coleman, is now in the NFL.
Indiana has the chance to hit the ground running with 4 straight wins to open the season. After that they hit that tough Big 10 schedule. Rutgers, Iowa, Maryland and Purdue are winnable games, but more will have to go right for IND than their opponent for the game and the season for that to occur. A split is the most likely scenario, making the offered win total just too tight to bet on. Pass.
Iowa
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (+100 Over -130 Under)
The Hawkeyes were decent at everything but running the ball last year. QB Beathard will get the starts now that Rudock has transferred to Michigan. There is nothing that screams of offensive excellence, or even improvement on defense this year. Iowa has a floor of 4-5 wins this year, but a ceiling that could reach as high as 10 games, as only trips to WIS and NEB are likely definite losses. It adds up to too much variance with my projections landing right on the betting line, anyway. Pass.
Maryland
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 4.5 (-135 Over +105 Under)
The Terps are already in the bottom tier of Big 10 recruiters, and now this year they face high turnover on top of that. Still, they had no glaring weaknesses last year and were really only dominated by the very best teams they faced last year -- OSU, WIS, MSU and STAN, a pretty lethal lineup.
QB C.J. Brown is gone -- he was never a great passer, but he had the most carries and highest ypc on the team. It will be interesting to see how the offensive identity changes this year with a QB that will probably suit the style of offense the Terps have wanted to play, anyway. There's just not enough experience on the offense to predict breakthrough success, though. Defensively they have a lot to replace up front.
Maryland could and should set the win floor at 3 games in the first month, but after that any win will be hard earned. There are 3 winnable games though, that could set them up for Bowl eligibility -- @IOWA, vs. IND and @RUTG. It's hard to see MD doing better than winning 2 of those, though, if that, meaning a week #13 trip to New Jersey will probably be their last game of the season. Pass.
Michigan
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (-120 Over -110 Under)
Harbaugh. Good Defense. Poor offense. Transfer QB Rudock? More wins? Prediction, yes. LEAN OVER
Minnesota
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 6 (-120 Over -110 Under)
The Gophers are a solid squad, playing twice as good as their recruiting rank. But there's no value here, and nothing exciting really to say about the Gophers. Pass.
Michigan State
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 9.5 (-150 Over +120 Under)
QB Connor Cook is the real collegiate deal. His solid play helped MSU to a top 10 ranked offense last year. Throw in an even better defense and my rankings really liked Sparty last year, ranking them 2nd overall. The comeback win against Baylor in the bowl was a nice win for me and even nicer win for the program, lol.
To say that WR Lippett was a favorite target of Cook would be an understatement -- Cook targeted him almost twice as much as any other receiver on the roster. We'll see how Cook spreads it around this year. Also gone is top RB Langford.
Speaking of the bowl game against Baylor, you'll remember how Petty was able to connect on numerous deep balls against the MSU cornerbacks. That will be probably be the Spartans' one defensive weakness again this year.
While the numbers definitely like MSU to get 10 or 11 wins this season, the -150 juice kind of sucks the value out of the Over. There's not a lot of room for error in a long season when betting on double digit wins. Pass.
Nebraska
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 8 (-140 Over +110 Under)
The Huskers will be living the life of Riley this year, bringing in the ORST HC who brought all of his old coordinators along for the ride as well. What ORST did on offense didn't bear any resemblance to catering to QB Armstrong's nature as a dual threat, so it's a definite wait and see scenario as far as I'm concerned. I'm statistically more bullish on Nebraska than the average handicapper, so maybe my projections for them this year should be taken with a small grain of salt. I think NEB has a solid floor of 7 wins, and will most likely get to 8 or 9 wins. If things go well for them, they could be undefeated when hosting MSU in week #10. If things don't, that game could be their fourth loss of the season. Just a little much uncertainty and juice to pull the trigger on the Over. LEAN OVER
Northwestern
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 6 (-125 Over -105 Under)
I was getting worried that I wasn't going to find any Big 10 team season plays that I liked -- well, worry no more, self, because one has been found. NW did have 3 big wins against pretty good teams last year; PSU, WIS and ND. I think part of that, though, came in the timing. They beat PSU and WIS early in conference play, two teams who were both struggling mightily with components of their offense, PSU the run and WIS the pass. PSU never did improve their run game, and consequently continued to lose more games as favorites. WIS did end up having some good passing games, turning their MELGOR lead offense into one of the most dangerous in football. NW edged ND in a wooly high-scoring game later in the season, round about when ND had defensive injuries that kept pretty much every opponent they played in the game. Other than those 3 wins, NW only beat PUR in FBS games.
They already had one of the worst Big 10 offenses last year, and now NW will be starting a new QB with a shuffled line. I don't see any reason to think this offense will improve more than their conference counterparts. NW was fair on defense last year, but still below average by conference standards. I think 6 wins is a best case scenario for NW this year. 7 wins would mean not being upset by any lesser foes, beating all the similar strength foes, and stealing a game from a superior foe like MINN, MICH, STAN, NEB, PSU or WIS. MINN at home will be their best shot, but I'm going to bet against the best case scenario even coming close to happening. NW with 5 wins this season.
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: NW UNDER 6 WINS
Ohio State
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 11.5 (-125 Over -115 Under)
So the betting line is whether or not OSU loses a single game this year? Yes, and rightfully so. I'm not going to lay -125 on perfection. Pass.
Penn State
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 8 (-145 Over +115 Under)
The Nittany Lions will certainly have figured out some of the offensive woes that plagued them until a Bowl Game victory over BC last year. The recipe for disaster was there, and it was cooked long past burnt. A little older now, maybe they can claw their way back to making QB Hackenberg look like the 5 star recruit he was. The defense was of course, phenomenal, a top 10 unit.
I like a floor of 8 wins for PSU this year, with a strong chance for 9 to 10. That means that PSU can withstand an upset and still push the Over play. While PSU certainly showed the propensity for being upset last year, if health holds, I don't think it will be an issue this year.
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: PSU OVER 8 WINS
Purdue
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 4 (-130 Over +100 Under)
Purdue has some things going for it this year -- it's the third year for HC Hazell, they played decently last year before injuries set in, and they return their entire offensive line. On the down side, they do lose two very good RBs. But the success of running backs is frequently down to the O-line, so there's still room for optimism in the running game. Both QBs were pretty awful last year, but they played a pretty murderously tough schedule of Big 10 defenses. Things can get better in the passing game this year, they almost certainly will. Overall there just seems to be more room for potential than backsliding this year. I like the Boilermakers to get wins vs IND St. and BGSU at home in the first month, and then win very close games against ILL, @NW and IND in the final month. Don't be surprised if they pull off an upset of VT or MINN at home, either. @Iowa is a winnable game, as well. There's a bit slimmer value than usual on this play, but I'm going to make it anyway.
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: PSU OVER 4 WINS
Rutgers
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 5.5 (+100 Over -130 Under)
Rutgers hits the QB reset button after Nova had a very good season last year. That instantly puts any offensive success for Rutgers in limbo this year. Limbo is not a good place to be for your better unit, as the defense has slipped beyond it's glory years, though not too far below Big 10 averages. That means, though, that both sides of the ball could be below Big 10 averages. I'd say Rutgers has a floor of 4 wins, but a ceiling of only 6 games. This number is not to be messed with. Pass.
Wisconsin
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 9.5 (-105 Over -125 Under)
It's hard to not look at the Badgers schedule and see a floor of 9 wins this season. An opening week loss at Alabama is likely, but after that, there's a chance that they win out. @NEB and @MINN are the only non-double digit wins I project for WIS. But will Stave and the passing game continue to show improvement? Will losing Melvin Gordon seriously affect the run game? I'm fairly optimistic on both counts, but there's little room for error with the Over when you've only two losses to work with. Still, with reasonable juice on the play, a defense that could be even better than last year, and a schedule filled with potential blow outs, I'm going to make another slim value play. Wisconsin hasn't been a very good road team, let's hope a split at worst in those two tougher games is good enough to get the 10 wins we need.
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: WIS OVER 9.5 WINS
The Sports Cruncher's 2015 PAC12 Team Wins Analysis
For some reason I grade out the PAC 12 a lot weaker than other raters n' rankers. Is it because they don't play outside of the West that frequently, not creating enough seeded games with the other power conferences? That's my best guess. While others seem to peg the PAC 12 as the 2nd toughest conference, my average team ranking had them as the lowest of the power 5. Odd. Maybe the truth lies somewhere in the middle.
Looking at last season's Bowl games, we saw Oregon beat an over-rated FSU and get whomped by OSU. My computer model predicted an OSU win, and the exact 42 points that they ended up scoring. Outside of Oregon's split, the PAC went 5-2 in the Bowls. That's a good winning record, but I don't the PAC faced very tough opponent's overall. Utah demolishing CSU was the most impressive PAC win, but CSU had lost their head coach and the focus just didn't seem to be there. Still, a hefty blow out. Arizona State survived Duke, as big of an over-achieving team as any in FBS. Duke is not good, folks. USC edged out Nebraska. I did have Nebraska ranked substantially higher than USC last year (15th to 41st), and those ranking do feel over and under placed, respectively. Stanford easily handled Maryland, as they should have. Arizona was rather easily beaten by Boise State, King of the Mid Majors. Arizona, I felt, was the most over-rated of the PAC teams last year, and the Bowl game matched my predictions. UCLA beat KSU by 5, as UCLA's run game was just too strong and KSU QB Jake Waters couldn't quite do it all by himself. UCLA I had in my top 25 most of the year, along with KSU. Finally, Washington was rolled by OK State, a team who had been a Big 12 doormat most of the year because of injuries and zero running game. I think the PAC 12 was favored in every one of those Bowl games. Going 6-3 when favored every time isn't great.
This season the PAC 12 in it's entirety has 8 games against other Big 5 schools, plus two with Notre Dame. It will be interesting to see how the PAC 12 fares against the other big conferences this year. I'm passing on the TA&M vs ASU game, but I'll definitely be taking MICH @ Utah in week #1. I haven't seen a line for ORE & MSU, but I favor MSU to win a close on there.
Arizona
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (-140 Over +110 Under)
The young guns return for the Wildcat's O, but the line rebuilds again. Inconsistency was the price of their youth, so there's reason for offensive optimism this year and in 2016. I see a win floor of pretty damn near 7 games for ARIZ, but even if the floor works out perfectly the 8th win will be hard to come by. The games @WASH and vs ASU will determine if ARIZ has even an outside chance of winning the South again. Pass.
Arizona State
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (-140 Over +110 Under)
Arizona State should be a better team than they were last year...and probably end up with a worse record to show for it. By playing two of their superior conference teams at home (ORE and USC, with one game against a superior UCLA on the road) and weaker conference teams on the road the door is wide open to a big range of results for ASU this year. That the line is set at 7.5 wins tells you that. My projections square up with that, making it a pass on the Sun Devils.
University of California Berkeley
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 5.5 (+105 Over -135 Under)
Time will tell if this year is a repeat of last year for the Bears -- good offense and horrific pass defense. The defense should make some gains. Wins will be hard to come by, though, as their out of conference games after Grambling are against SDSU and TEX. SDSU will be a dangerous team this year, an upset is definitely a possibility. Anything on their schedule that isn't UCLA, USC, ORE or STAN is winnable, though. I think they've got a good shot of going into SLC and beating Utah (I'm really down on Utah this year). Still, no value at 5.5 wins, it's a pass.
Colorado
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 5.5 (+115 Over -145 Under)
The Buffs are another young and improving team that will find themselves less deep and athletic than the majority of the PAC 12, but teams will start to finding them to be less of the automatic win that they used to be. COLO can close to pulling numerous upsets last year, but couldn't seal the deal late in games. Their rush defense was atrocious last year, while their pass defense was decent -- a near mirror image of CAL's defense rankings but flipped in reverse. I think COLO might be a little better than my projections right now. A win against in state rival CSU wouldn't surprise me (though I project a CSU win right now, that could quickly change in the first two weeks), and COLO could end up playing well enough to steal games at ORST and WSU. Beyond that it's murderer's row and the realm of BIG upset. So 6 wins is the ceiling, and 3 or 4 wins the floor. Given the juice on the Under and COLO's upside this year, it's a pass on a season play.
Oregon
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 9.5 (-125 Over -105 Under)
I think Oregon loses in week #2 at MSU, which would only give them one more loss to work with on the Over. I do think they'll cruise through most of their conference play, but from week #7 on they play @WASH, @ASU, vs CAL, @STAN, vs USC and a final home freebie against ORST. There's a solid chance the lose one of those, I'm thinking @ STAN will be their most dangerous game. I lean Over here, but the Duck defense could be a problem for them this year. Pass.
Oregon State
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 4 (-105 Over -125 Under)
ORST got a surprise upgrade in its coaching staff, but they inherit a squad many pieces short of a puzzle solid enough to win in the PAC 12. A freshman quarterback will have to play, whoever they go with. At least they get some returners on offense. Defensively, though, they're looking at mass turnover. The juice leans the Under, as do I. Looking at their schedule, 4 games looks like a free roll on the Under. If they beat Weber St., SJSU, and COLO at home (no gimmie, there, am I right?), their next best chances for a win come @WSU and CAL. I don't see either of those teams with as much of a chance of slipping back even further after mediocre/bad seasons as ORST does. HC Anderson is building for the future, going with freshman and not transfers, for the most part. It may be wise to bet against a rebuilding year.
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: ORST UNDER 4 WINS
Stanford
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 8.5 (-160 Over +130 Under)
STAN returns most of an offensive that improved as the season went along last year -- especially the passing game (with the exception of one humongous egg laid against Utah). Stanford is facing a defensive rebuild up front and in the secondary. STAN does have some question marks and concerns, then, but they've got a favorable schedule, with only one tough road game @USC. UCLA, ORE and ND will be the only other challenges on their schedule, and they get them at home. It makes sense that the juice is heavy on the Over 8.5 wins, as they'll have to lose their only four tough games (as long as they win the others) for it to lose. At -120 I'd take the juice, but it's a pass at -160. LEAN OVER
UCLA
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 9 (+110 Over -140 Under)
The Bruins look to be awesomely solid everywhere but QB this season. That's potentially troubling, as I rated UCLA's pass offense to be even better than their rush offense last year (both top 25 units, though). If 5 star blue chipper Rosen isn't starting in week #1, it will be a distraction as to when he eventually takes over. Still, the running game should be so good this year.
Defensively UCLA was a bit soft against the run last year, with no guarantee that they'll be significantly better this year. Still, with Stanford being the only real defense in the PAC 12, UCLA's unit was still my 2nd rated best in the conference last year.
Looking at UCLA's schedule, they'll probably have one loss (@STAN) heading into the final 2 weeks @UTAH and @USC. I think they handle a Utah squad that played over their heads in several upsets last year, but then fall to USC. I really do see the floor as 10 wins, as long as their QB play is average. I think it's a free roll on 9 with the + juice. It would take one of the Arizona teams beating UCLA for the Over to lose, I think, and UCLA gets the better of the two, ASU, at home.
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: UCLA OVER 9 WINS
USC
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 9 (-140 Over +110 Under)
The Trojans get the same number of 9 as the Bruins, but with the juice reversed, reflecting more optimism on the USC squad this year. They sure as hell have the QB advantage, with Kessler a Heisman candidate. Last year, though, the Trojans didn't even enjoy a passing game supremacy against the Bruins. Hundley and Co. put up far better numbers in a total beat down of USC. USC can improve this year. They were young and are finally getting experience across their two deep. That could easily transform them into one of the top PAC 12 teams this year, which they weren't, last year. Their defense wasn't far behind UCLA's, ranking 3rd best, just ahead of Oregon, ASU, Utah and WASH, respectively. It's that potential that has the Trojans as a strong "sleeper" pick this year. They have 3 losable road games this year, @ASU, @ND and @ORE. I think they'll win one of those. On top of that they've got two tough home games against STAN and UCLA. In comparison to UCLA, I think USC has a higher ceiling, at 11 raw projected wins...but I also have them with a less secure floor with 8.9 ML projected wins. All told, it's a pass.
Utah
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (-120 Over -110 Under)
According to my numbers Utah is a pretty over-rated team. They somehow managed to pull off numerous upsets against better teams in the PAC 12 last year. They don't do anything particularly well, except for kicking the ball. Useful...but. If they're not as lucky as last year and their defense drops off at all under their "new" (72 years old pulled from retirement, I believe), DC, Utah will be a middle of the pack PAC team -- at best. The Arizonas are the upper middle of the PAC teams, Utah is lower middle. Don't be surprised to see CAL upset them on their own turf this year -- callin' it now! lol.
This is one of my favorite season totals this year.
ADDING FOR 1 UNIT: UTAH UNDER 7.5 WINS
University of Washington
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 4.5 (-160 Over +130 Under)
HC Peterson faces a 2nd new start, for all intents and purposes, so the going figures to be a hard pull for the Huskies this year. Scraping by weaker teams worked for a while last year, but the season ended with a dud thud against OKST in the Bowl. Now WASH has to go with inexperience at QB and they're rebuilding both lines.
4.5 games is pretty low, and WASH is favored in 3 of their first 4 games. Home games against ARIZ, Utah, and WSU are opportunities for wins late in the season, as is a trip to Corvallis @ORST. That makes the Over look appealing, and my projections suggest a return to Bowl eligibility, but with so much of a reset we don't really know how low the floor is for WASH this year. While the ceiling could be 7 games, the floor could, potentially, dip as low as 3 or 4 wins. Maybe at even juice we'd take a flier, but -160 is too much to mess with. Pass.
Washington State University
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 5 (+115 Over -145 Under)
In contrast to their cross state rivals, WSU returns pretty much everyone in the trenches. The Cougars are relatively young at the skill positions, though, but they do have some experience. QB Falk looks to have as much upside as Holladay did. But man, does WSU have a pretty tough schedule. It's always gonna' be hard when you're not in the better half of the PAC 12 teams. I see the Cougars with a ceiling of 6 or 7 wins, and that's if they play up to potential and pull some upsets as well. My numbers are dead on with the betting line, but I'm going to go with a slightly positive take on my numbers and say that the 4.5 projected wins gets rounded up to 5. Either way it's a pass on a season wager, but hey, lol. Pass.
Great write ups as always. Wondering what your thoughts if any on OSU going undefeated are?
I played it because compared to 5/2 there seems to be some value.
South Point in Vegas offering 10/1 on 15-0
Buckeyes have most talent & best coach.
Cal is more likely to win at Texas then at Utah. Utes can play bro
I played it because compared to 5/2 there seems to be some value.
South Point in Vegas offering 10/1 on 15-0
Buckeyes have most talent & best coach.
Cal is more likely to win at Texas then at Utah. Utes can play bro
Ha, I saw that you liked Utah Over, MM. I'm hoping without Sitake their defenses mushrooms into great mediocrity.
I think there's a really good shot that OSU goes undefeated -- in the regular season. Michigan State might be the only game they don't win by double digits. As for the playoff, I don't know. 10-1 seems like a decent lay, though, worth a shot. If they can make it into the playoff undefeated you can hedge whatever you think a good balance is, if so inclined.
I think there's a really good shot that OSU goes undefeated -- in the regular season. Michigan State might be the only game they don't win by double digits. As for the playoff, I don't know. 10-1 seems like a decent lay, though, worth a shot. If they can make it into the playoff undefeated you can hedge whatever you think a good balance is, if so inclined.
The Sports Cruncher's 2015 Big12 Team Wins Analysis
Baylor
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 10 (-130 Over +100 Under)
Big things are expected of the Baylor Bears again this season. Here are some reasons they might not win the Big 12: a new QB. QB, however, hasn't been a position problem for Baylor in many years now, so expect a pretty good season from Seth Russell. TSC rankings only had Baylor at #17 last year -- oh wait, those are my rankings, I better explain, lol. It's pretty simple, really, while Baylor had a fantastically fast, balanced offense, and an even better run defense (surprising stat of the day?), their pass defense was second worst in the Big 12. Or maybe this will the surprising stat of the day -- I have the Big 12 as a better passing conference than the PAC 12 last year. Even the perennial doghouse teams like Kansas and Iowa State were near average in the FBS last year, as was Texas. All of the 7 other teams, though, I had ranked 40th or better in pass offense. That being said, issues and injuries kept the Oklahoma schools from matching their Texas' conference mates, though. WVU had the #8 pass offense, but it's running game was not top 25, a fate even more imbalanced for the great passing attack that KSU had last year. It was one thing or another that really kept the Big12 from really having a dominating year as a conference. Only TCU and BAY stayed strong 'til the end, with TCU having an impressive Bowl blowout of an injured Ole Miss team, while BAY coughed up a late lead to MSU -- a game in which both secondaries were exposed as defensive weaknesses. Anyway, this has turned into a bit of a Big12 recap, let's get back to Baylor...
Last year's defensive weakness in the secondary should be better with more experience and depth coming in. They get a ton of players back to from their good defensive line and LB corps. Suffice it to say, I can see why there's optimism for BAY to win the conference this year. Their defensive gains should outpace any drop off they have in QB play, and will have a great running game anyway. I do think that overall they benefitted at catching a lot of teams at the right time last year, they might not be as lucky this year. They will most likely be undefeated through October. Almost all the good games in the Big 12 are in the final 5 weeks of the season -- BAY plays @KSU, OKLA, @OKST, @TCU and TEX in their final 5. That's pretty tough, even as a superior team. I think KSU will regress more than I project (which would agree with the consensus I see) and OKLA may not be quite as strong as I project, either. That being said, I think BAY loses one of those two games, plus @TCU. So even though my actual numbers lean Under, I think the true number for BAY should indeed be at 10 games. Pass.
Iowa State University
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 3 (-135 Over +105 Under)
The Cyclones had a respectable offense last year, staying within 10 rankings of OKST and TEX, even if they were still 2ne worst in the Big 12. Injuries ravaged their defense, though, which also finished 2nd worst, but much further below the 3rd worst Big 12 defense, TTU. It was all down to their rush defense, or lack thereof. Against the pass they were actually pretty near the middle of Big 12 averages. Their secondary should be decent again, they just need to hope for better health and results up front.
With any luck, ISU could field a team that once again pulls off an upset this year. A betting line of 3 is of course not very optimistic for much of an ISU bounce back, and my numbers reflect that as well. They will have to play better than expected and better than last year to get 3 wins in their first 4 games. It's possible. After that, though, Madre de Dios, wins are gonna' be hard to come by. OKST is the most winnable, though OKST is getting a lot of hype for bouncing back strong this year. I mean, 3 games, really, really looks like the ceiling. I'm not going to lay -130 that ISU pulls off two upsets this year. They'll be favored against Northern Iowa and Kansas, that's probably it. Pass.
Kansas State University
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7 (-125 Over -105 Under)
No team in college football may be more hard hit from losing their QB and top receiver than the Wildcats this year. Passing was really all the Wildcats could do last year, and they did it very, very well. It's not just Waters to Lockett (106 catches) that is lost, 2nd leading WR Sexton is gone as well (79 catches). After those two the next leading receiver for the team had just 20 catches. That is just a hell of a lot of offense to suddenly be accounted for. All of my game projections for KSU this year have a -9.2% deduction to their pass numbers from last year. That seems hefty...yet might not be enough.
It will be a medium rebuilding year for the team defensively, so expect the usual, pretty good results. Kickers are back and special teams should continue to be a strength.
KSU, undefeated on the road in 2015...it could happen! With the only toughies being @OKST, @TTU and @TEX, you never know (if the passing game only regresses in the 10% range I mentioned above). If things are drastically worse, though, suddenly they'll be lucky to win one of those games, and then they'd be facing losses vs. TCU, OKLA, BAY and WVU.
With so much up in the air (and not going well in the air, most likely) I have to dampen my enthusiasm for KSU and pass on the Over. I'll lean it, though, lean Over. After all, there will be bodies of some sort running the offensive plays this year, and I'm assuming they'll have practiced, and that the best coach in college football history gets as much out of them as possible.
Kansas
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 1.5 (-160 Over +130 Under)
If you're from Kansas, I'm sorry, and it has nothing to do with the football, lol. Brownbackistan Westboroland is Just. The. Worst.
As for the football, anything the Jayhawks were decent at last year have question marks this year. Ok passing game? Injured QB in the spring. Ok pass defense? Turnover at linebackers and the secondary. Good punter and punt returner? Gone. This is shaping up to be a long, long season, Jayhawks.
KU is given a generous 100% chance of winning the opener against South Dakota State (as it's the default versus FCS schools in my computer), the reality is probably closer to 50%, which knocks the ML projection down to 1.8 games won. That's pretty much right in line with the betting line & juice. Pass.
Oklahoma
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 8.5 (-130 Over +100 Under)
I'm showing 80 cents of value on the Over here, let's take a look...
...back in time, to 2014, when Oklahoma had promising season completely come off the rails after botching what should have been a win @ KSU. To be fair, they came back and crushed ISU the next week, and Kansas a few weeks after that, but they also ended up with hugely embarrassing losses to Baylor and Clemson, as well as a gut-wrenching home loss to OKST. That final week loss just completely deflated them, judging by their Bowl performance against Clemson.
So that's the bad -- the good is that OKLA still just looks really damn good on paper. They return almost all of their skill on offense, plus QB transfer Mayfield. The problem last year for the offense was that the passing game faltered down the stretch. Yes, the game against Kansas was played in a monsoon, which led to only completing 3 of 13 passes, but it did boost the running numbers of a Mr. Perine rather well, you might say.
This year, though, with new coordinators, OKLA is moving to an air raid offense which will probably feature Mayfield (unless there's an update I'm not aware of). That would mean quite a bit less running the ball then OKLA did last year, and they were so much better at running than passing. So while 2015 should be an interesting and exciting year for the Sooner offense, I just don't know how predictable it will be across a season of games, especially with a rebuild on the offensive line.
Defensively OKLA was better against the run than pass, and that's usually a better recipe for winning, but maybe not so much in the Big 12, where passing games have exceeded the running in recent years. The defense could regress this year, especially against the run. It's hard to see them improving overall from last year's solid results. You don't have to fall far as a 20th ranked defense in the Big 12 to suddenly be in the bottom half of defensive squads for the conference.
Looking at that Over, I can see OKLA losing one game prior to week #11, two max. Then, in spite of my spreadsheet's rosy predictions for wins @ BAY (a supremely tough place to win), vs TCU and @ OKST, I think OKLA drops another. I think the worst case scenario is the two early/mid season losses, and two late losses. The medium scenario is the 9 wins, the pretty good scenario 10 wins, and best case scenario an undefeated regular season and trip into the playoffs. Yup, you heard it here first! (I'm guessing, lol).
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: OKLA OVER 8.5 WINS
Oklahoma State
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (-175 Over +145 Under)
Rebuilding last year OKST was vulnerable and if it could go wrong it mostly did once the meat of the season hit. Still they showed gumption at the end finishing with upsets of OKLA and WASH. With QB Rudolph taking over in those games, OKST ended with optimism for 2015 (and beyond). The problem is that they still have no running game until proven otherwise. Certainly they will improve this year. Their offensive line is a year older and are still all juniors or younger.
Defensively, the Pokes need to replace the defensive tackles and that's really their only concern. Still, the run defense was their better defense last year, if the run defense slips this year they run the risk of being defensively mediocre any which way you choose to attack them. But hey, that secondary was super young last year, and injured to boot. I do not doubt they'll jump back to being at least an average secondary by Big 12 standards.
So OKST is looking at some ifs just to get back to league average in half their match ups. To me that means uncertainty. Uncertainty in the Big 12 can mean 6 losses faster than you can say "boo!" That's exactly what was about to happen to them last year until pulling out the miracle at Norman. And this year's schedule is really much tougher than last year's. It's a do-or-die schedule in the extreme. They get all the superior teams at home, and the equal(ish) competition on the road. It's the kind of schedule you really like when you're one of the best teams in the league -- not so much in a rebound year as an average team. Maybe you'd prefer to not call them Big 12 average. I'm willing to bet that they are. Looking at their schedule, it's going to take no slip-ups in games they should win to set the floor at 5 games. I don't project them to win any but those 5 games, even with regression working in their favor. They'll need wins @TTU and vs KSU to get to 7 wins, and then either @TEX or @WVU to get to 8. Having their lone conference win at home be against Kansas wouldn't surprise me in the least. The ball is in your court, Gundy and Company, just please don't prove me wrong, lol.
Adding for 1/2 Unit: OKST Under 7.5 wins
Texas Christian University
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 10 (-135 Over +115 Under)
The offense, certainly, returns the bulk and should be good. While stout against the run, TCU was vulnerable to the pass as times, a la Baylor, though better than the Bears. TCU had a couple of amazing linebackers last year that were the glue of their defense, and now they are gone. Defensive regression is a definite possibility for the squad this year. Special teams will continue to be strong.
Right off the bat I'm showing my true line on the Under 10 to be -160, so there's some value there. The problem for me is that TCU has a pretty high ceiling with their schedule, with 11 wins in my raw projections. That tempers the raw ML value just a little bit. With KSU being probably not as good as my projections this year, I can see TCU racing out to 10-0 start this season. But getting back to the raw ML projections, the floor in those first 10 games is really only 6 games, 8 wins not unrealistic, and 9 wins with a loss almost certain just due to the law of averages facing the medium strength Big 12 teams. Even with a perfect 10-0 run they could lose @OKLA and vs. BAY to push the Under. Hmm.
Shoot, let's call it a LEAN UNDER for now. While the defense will probably not be as good, the offense could make up for it. Boykin had his better games at QB in the second half of the season. If that maturity continues, the TCU offense will be a holy terror. Pass.
Texas
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 6 (-185 Over +160 Under)
I reckon most of the pacifists in Texas live in Austin, which unfortunately also extends to the Longhorns' offense. Their passing game again looks to be one of the worst in the Big12. The run game last year honestly wasn't much better, but the offensive line should be healthier and better this year. Texas has to do better on first and second downs as 3rd and Longhorns was a recipe for disaster last year.
On the bright side, Texas had and will almost certainly have again the best pass defense in the Big 12, a tool more useful in their conference than in some others. Their rush defense, though, was nothing special, and not as good as any of the top teams in the Big 12. That's a problem when you're trailing in a game and unable to get the ball back. Texas' defense was amazing to start games but faded late.
I see Texas' win floor at 6 games -- does that make it a free roll on the Over? Not quite. First of all, there's the -185 juice, which sets the effect line at 6.85 wins. There's still some value, but I think my current projection of Texas hanging tough with ND in week #1 is probably a bit optimistic with ND's stats fouled by defensive injuries last year. The same goes for the game against OKST. I think that easily shaves a half game off of the ML projection, bringing it down to 7.2. But KSU is projected to slip more than usual, which adds .33 back, or so. At 7.5 it's an ok play. The good thing for the Over is that Texas can push the number with home wins alone vs. RICE, CAL, OKST, KSU, KU and TTU. Even if they slip up and lose one, they'll get it back @ISU. Can they pull an upset @ND, @TCU, vs OKLA, @WVU or @BAY? They should win one of these. Man, this is a close call, I think if you can find the juice at -160 on the Over, it would be a solid play. As is, it's a pass. LEAN OVER. Now watch Texas go out and win 8 games this year, lol.
Texas Tech University
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 5.5 (-120 Over +100 Under)
TTU, with just even luck in the turnovers and injury departments, will be better this year. I'm not going to go into too many details, though, because their schedule makes things pretty cut and dried. Wins vs Sam Houston, UTEP, ISU and KU should be an automatic 4 wins. I think they'll beat OKST at home, as well. If the line were at 5 games I'd jump the Over in a heart beat. However, to get over that half game hump into Bowl eligibility and a winning Over play, they'll have to win one of these games: @ARK, TCU, @OKLA, @WVU, KSU, or @TEX. WVU and KSU are a couple of real wild cards in the Big 12 this year. Last year they were a threat to beat the top teams in the conference, this year they both lose so much of their offense that the threat level will probably be downgraded from red to orange. And will OKST truly be upgraded from green to orange and possibly beyond? These are the things I've been wrangling with in all of these win projections for the Big 12, and here I am at near the last team, lol.
The Red Raiders, though, have the ability to move and score on any defense in the Big 12, and that won't change this year. Their defense was so injured and horrible last year that it's near automatic they'll improve to a certain degree. New DC Gibbs will gamble and either force a turnover of the ball or downs...or potentially long plays and scores. That's not a bad way to play defense when you've got an offense that you want on the field as much as possible wearing down the opponent's defense.
Well, I think I've just about reasoned my way into an Over play, here. I'm going to hope like hell that TTU pulls off an upset at home against TCU or BAY in weeks #4 or #5. I don't think it's as outlandish as it seems. They'll just have to outscore one of those teams in a very high scoring game, lol. While the floor for TTU is the 5 games I mentioned (with the bomb shelter set at 4 wins), 9 wins is not out of the question if the offense is still good and the defense serves it's purpose in not staying on the field for long with at least a decent rate of success. Okay, maybe I did go into a few details, lol.
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: TTU OVER 5.5
West Virginia
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (+110 Over -130 Under)
QB Trickett had his bell rung one too many times last year and tapped out of the football ring for good. WVU's passing game was very good while Trickett was healthy, and a little below average when he wasn't or when his replacement Howard played later in the season. One of the best receivers in college football last year, Kevin White, is also gone, as well as receiver #2 Alford. The Mountaineer run wasn't great last year, but they did face a pretty tough schedule, and returns its key pieces, including most of the offensive line. Any time a team starts a season with unknown quantities at QB and receiver it is, of course, hard to predict their success. I think WVU's offense will be okay, this year, not great, not terrible. What a prediction! I really went out on a limb on that one, lol.
Looking at the broad spectrum of where defenses will be in the Big 12 this year, the ponies are lining up for the Mountaineers' defense to ascend to the top of the Big hill. It really could happen. TCU lost the heart of their d. at linebackers, KSU has some rebuilding to do...Texas -- well, if either of these two teams, WVU or TEX, can improve and distance themselves from the other team in run defense, they'll have a shot at being the best Big 12 defense.
Looking at the win total of 7.5 games, I have about 50 cents of value compared to my line of 7.9 wins. WVU has a pretty solid floor of 6 wins. I think they'll beat TTU at home to get to 7, and then TEX at home to get to 8. So best case scenario, they get Over 7.5 wins without having to beat one of the top teams in the conference. With the "?" on offense, though, it's probably safe to put loss in back in the mix, dropping them to 7. After that, though it's going to take a win @OKLA, @BAY, @TCU or @KSU to get back in the Over win column. I just don't think it's worth betting on that happening. Pass.
The Sports Cruncher's 2015 SEC Team Wins Analysis
The SEC is the strongest conference, get over it.
Alabama
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 9.5 (-155 Over +135 Under)
At the conclusion of the regular season last year I had Alabama as my #1 team. In the playoff game they were basically one Ezekiel Elliott 85 yard touchdown run away from playing OSU to a statistical standstill. Win that game and they, like OSU, are probably going to beat Oregon. So close, Saban.
Sims to Cooper is gone offensively, and that's a blow. The Tide had my 3rd ranked pass offense last year. Cooper had almost as many catches as the rest of the team combined, which is pretty insane. Looking at things optimistically, though, the ALA receivers did have a pretty similar ypc average to Cooper when the ball was actually thrown their way for a catch. Whether it's Coker or Cornwell who win the starting QB job, he'll be 6'5" with enough meat on his bones to take a few hits. Other than skill at RB it's a rebuilding year offensively for ALA. Like any top recruiting program, though, a "rebuilding" year usually isn't going to be far off in quality from a normal year.
A good chunk of the defense is back, as are the kickers. Until the playoff loss, the ALA defense had only had one poor game of run defense, against TENN in week #9. After that game they buckled down again and were very tough against LSU, MSST, AUB and MIZZ. The 'Bama pass defense, which had so good up through week #12, went pear-shaped in the final two games of the regular season, though they still won those two games. It was a warning shot off the bow, though. The pass defense wasn't bad against OSU, holding the Buckeyes to less than their usual ypp, but neither was it good enough to get enough stops and a win. OSU converted on 10-18 3rd downs, ALA just 2-13. That's your ball game, folks.
So ALA finds itself in the same boat as a lot of SEC teams this year -- new QB, maybe some question marks at WR...with a strong defense.
If ALA doesn't regress too much on offense I see their win floor as 9 games. The only games I have as "losable" for them are @UGA, @MSST and @AUB. All of those teams have an issue or two of their own to deal with -- 'Bama should be perfectly capable of reeling off a perfect regular season. But still, it's the SEC West, where any chink in your armor can lead to a full blown chain mail collapse on any given Saturday. My ML projection for ALA is 10, meaning there's just 45 cents of value on the Over. There are enough safer wagers in the conference this year, in my opinion. Pass.
Arkansas
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 8 (-120 Over +100 Under)
We all know that Arkansas was better than their record last year, losing all the close heart-breakers. They closed out the season phenomenally well, totally mauling LSU, Ole Miss and then Texas in the bowl (with just a lone loss on the road to also surging Missouri sandwiched in there). Let's start with their defense -- I rank them as the #1 rush defense last year, and 13th best pass defense, 4th best over all. Though just average through the first 1/3 of the season, the run defense was a revelation after that, giving up 1.7 yards less per carry than opponent's usually gained. Looking at some other metrics and rankings I have for the offensive and defensive units, the Razorbacks pass defense doesn't look nearly as good. In defense of their pass defense, though, they had my 2nd rated hardest schedule of pass offenses faced last year. They only played two teams who averaged less than 7 ypp, NIU and MIZZ. They were inconsistent, though. In the four games with poor pass defense they were very poor, surrendering 3.7 yards more per pass on average than the opponent usually gained. In their six best games (excluding the Bowl) they held opponents to 2.2 yards less per pass than they usually gained (though one of those games came against the reeling Treadwell-less Ole Miss Rebels).
Offensively, ARK is seen as the team with the biggest offensive line in college football, with a slow-paced run heavy attack. All true -- but I still rank it 14th best last year, maybe lower than some might expect. The passing game came in at 37th best. Getting almost everyone back, ARK is in a position to have an even better offense than last year, especially if the new OC can make them a little less predictable.
The ARK defense does have some pieces to replace up front, losing their top tackling DE, DT and MLB. Special teams were a weakness.
Looking at the schedule, I'd set the win floor at 5. The only near certain loss will come @ALA. If ARK continues to play most of it's good ball at home, this season could be a repeat of last year...or worse. Right now I project ARK to win @ TENN and a neutral field game against TA&M. Both of those teams are expected to be better this year, making those games more of a toss up than my lines might indicate.
Even with that high ceiling, the ML win projection is just 7.6. If ARK doesn't improve this year while the other median-SEC teams do, the 5 win floor might be as high as they go, with a bitter Bowl-less Holiday season to enjoy afterward. It's a pass, with a SMALL LEAN UNDER.
Auburn
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 8.5 (-160 Over +140 Under)
I was as high on Auburn's hog as anyway midway through the season last year, ranking them #1 on various weeks, as I recall. And then...the Texas A&M game, where everything that had been threatening to go wrong, plus anything else that possibly could, did. Auburn's defense, which had actually been pretty solid through the first half of the season, had begun to show cracks. They were lulled into a false sense of complacency coming into the A&M game. A&M freshman QB Allen had started his first game the week before against a dreadful UL-Monroe team, and the Aggies barely won that game. The Aggies were looking very, very bad on pretty much all fronts on the heels of the ULM game, with the 59-0 blow out loss to ALA 2 weeks before that.
Auburn actually rebounded with a pretty good defensive game against Georgia, but then had an awful game against Alabama and lost the Bowl to Wisconsin. On the season as a whole, though, they ranked pretty well, especially offensively (#3).
Auburn lost a ton of talent on offense, including QB Nick Marshall. I had Auburn with the #1 pass offense last year. Against 7 of 11 FBS teams they passed for more than 10 yards per pass last year. That's phenomenal, especially when those 7 teams are ARK, LT, LSU, SCAR, MISS, TA&M and ALA! That's a sentence that could easily be punctuated with 7 exclamation points.
In spite of those losses, there's still a fair amount of hype for Auburn this year. Junior QB J. Johnson is not a dual-threat QB like Marshall was (and Marshall was a better runner than MSST QB Prescott), but he's considered to have a better arm. For the top recruiting teams in the nation like Auburn, turnover generally isn't such a scary thing. There plenty of 4 star and blue chip players waiting in the wings to get their chance to prove that they are just as good, if not better, than the players they are replacing. For Auburn, the combination of high offensive numbers and high recruiting ranks means I project their passing game to slip only a little this year (-3.4%) and their run game even less (-1%). These are formula derived numbers...and I think they might be a little too optimistic. As good as Auburn's offense was last year, it could drop off 10% or more and still be a good offense.
Defensively, the big story for Auburn is the arrival of Will Muschamp as DC. The work that Muschamp did with Florida's defense is sorely needed at Auburn. As always with a new coach or coordinator you wonder how long it will take before you get results. I think there's reason to be optimistic for the Auburn defense this year, though, as they return a lot of players, their high level of recruiting, and now DC Muschamp to craft a better on the field product. I project the Tigers' run and pass defenses to both be about 5% better, which could mean they'd be flirting with a top ten defense this year.
Looking at the schedule, Auburn only has a win floor of 6 games. Probable home wins against MSST and MISS brings it up to 8. Road games @LSU and @ARK I project as very close wins for Auburn, as well as a home game against UGA. The raw projections are quite nice for Auburn, as they have them going undefeated until a final week home loss against Alabama. The ML projection of 8.9 wins, though, is almost right in sync with the betting line, making it a pass on the season play. As last season proved for Auburn, if you're off your game at all against good SEC competition the losses can start to pile up.
Florida
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7 (-125 Over +105 Under)
I have the Gators with the 10th best defense in the FBS last year...which was only good for 6th best in the SEC and a 5-5 record against FBS schools. Defense shouldn't be a problem this year. The offense though will be raw and probably mistake prone, with new coaches across the board and the apparent likelihood of a true freshman starting at QB, behind a brand new offensive line. There's some talent at the skill positions, time will tell if they can put it together. They frustratingly did not last year except for that rare occasion when you really liked Georgia to win by double digits, lol.
Looking at their schedule this year, there are only two games I'm going to count as losses to the ceiling -- @LSU and @UGA. I won't be surprised if they hang within a score of the Tigers at Baton Rouge, though. Home games against Ole Miss and FSU will be tough, but they're more likely to win one of those then lose both, by my projections. Versus TENN, a close win, @ MIZZ a one point steal, and @SCAR not crapping the bed again with a one score victory. That's what I'm projecting right now -- a raw 8-4 and ML 7.4 wins. That's slim value, ultimately, when looking at that -125 price tag on the Over. Pass, with too much uncertainty on the offense.
Georgia
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 9 (-140 Over +120 Under)
It will be an interesting year for Bulldog fans this year. Some things will remain the same -- the #1 ranked rushing team will continue to plow through opposing teams. Chubb, Michel and Douglas are back to run the rock, and the offensive line returns everyone except center Andrews. That's the certain side of the offense. The passing game is far less certain. New OC Schottenheimer is a good fit for the running game, but it's less certain what he'll be able to do with a trio of unproven in Athens (Lambert did start at Virginia for a good chunk of his time there) and a mostly fresh batch of receivers. I'm slightly optimistic -- QB Mason was okay last year, he certainly had a good completion % and TD-INT ratio, but his yards per pass average were pretty much at the league average. It should not be hard to have success passing the ball when you've got the #1 run offense in football.
On the flip side of the line, the certainty comes in the secondary and the pass defense. They had a weak game against SCAR early, but that was it, and they got downright dominating in the later stages of the season. At the same time, though, the run defense faded, including that "how the eff did that happen?" game against FLA. You can guess who I had in that game, grrr. And just like the offense, the certain side returns a lot of its' strength, while the uncertain side does not, as UGA loses the top 3 tacklers from it's line last year.
-140 juice is a bit stiff on the Over, but both my raw and ML projections like UGA to win 10 games this year. Let's look at the schedule and see if a free roll at 9 wins seems likely. Umm, yes. Vs. ULM, @VAN, SCAR, Southern U. There's 4 wins to start the season, about as guaranteed as you can get. And then...Alabama. It should be close, but I've got ALA winning by a field goal. And then, @TENN, MIZZ, FLA, UK. I like UGA to win all of those, with maybe a 50% chance of losing one of them. And then...@AUB. Another close loss. Georgia Southern and @GT to finish the regular season. I'm pretty sure the Bulldogs will have last year's game against GT on their mind (1 game of many where backing GT paid off). Georgia can go undefeated with their schedule while 2 losses is almost the worst case scenario. If for some reason they lose @TENN there's no guarantee they lose the ALA and AUB games anyway. If they lose all 3 they'll just have to get past GT at the end to push the bet. I like those chances.
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: UGA OVER 9 WINS
University of Kentucky
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 5.5 (-135 Over +115 Under)
Kentucky staggered to the finish line last season, falling dead just short of Bowl eligibility after a promising start. It's hard to say that they'll do anything but flirt with Bowl eligibility once again this season. They return a lot of players but took a hit on their defensive front.
UK has a pretty solid floor of 3 wins with games against non P5 and FCS teams. I have them as a 4.8 favorite @ VAN in week #11. In weeks #2-#4 they play @SCAR, FLA & MIZZ. The sum of their chances in those games equals one win. I think that's best case scenario. So best case so far has them at 5 wins. Games against AUB, @MSST and @UGA are losses. I'm taking those off the board right now, lol. That leaves having to get a win vs TENN or LOU to hit the Over. The problem is, both of those teams are expected to just as improved, and probably more so, than Kentucky. From my perspective, the Wildcats best case scenario only puts them in a position to have to pull an upset for the Under 5.5 to lose.
LSU
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 8.5 (+100 Over -120 Under)
With a raw wins projection of 8 and a ML projection of 8.4 I'm not interested in this line. Still, let's take a look a bit at things. LSU was a top 20 team in 3 of the 4 matchup categories, and you can probably guess which of the 4 units didn't qualify -- the passing offense. That remains the question mark this season as well, and it's all down to the QB, as the team has a lot of explosive receivers. QB Jennings was a total dud against the good SEC defenses in the latter half of the season. It's not a lock that he'll start ahead of sophomore Harris this year. If one of the QBs shows marked improvement this year LSU can make a run at the playoff. The running game should be solid, though 1st Team All-SEC LT Collins is gone.
Defensively the Tigers have a new DC for the first time in a long time, which is cause for just a little bit of doubt. Expect the Tigers to be more aggressive going after the QB than they've been in the past, which may or may not work for them. Last year they had my #1 rated pass defense in spite of being pretty poor at pressuring the QB. With the talent the Tigers have on the field, it will take some horrendous scheming for them not to do well, I figure.
Looking at LSU's schedule, the only loss I'd apply to their ceiling comes @ALA. The other 3 raw losses are projected to be very close games: @MSST (+3.3), AUB (+1.8) and @MISS (+1.7). An eleven win season is not out of reach. LSU has a solid win floor of 6 (double digit + win projections). A home win against FLA should make it 7. Another home win in a revenge game against ARK should make it 8. So really, taking LSU on either the Over or Under 8.5 this year comes down to how well you feel the Mississippi schools will do this year. I think Ole Miss drops off a bit more than MSST, but I think they'll both still be pretty good. It's a pass.
Mississippi State
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7 (-130 Over +110 Under)
7 wins, that's it? You're one of the few SEC teams returning a good QB and a lot of your skill players and you get this kind of disrespect? I guess it depends on if you think the Bulldogs are a team representative of their overall statistics last year, or just the 2nd half of the season when they faded. Even if the truth lies somewhere in between I don't understand the predictions that put MSST at the bottom of the SEC-West this year.
QB Prescott put up good numbers against the slew of top ten SEC defenses he faced last year, which is really impressive given he's a dual threat QB who had 189 rush attempts last year (for a decent 5.0 ypc). Not once last year did MSST have a game where they qualified for a "worst" performance either passing or running. Georgia matched that feat in the weaker SEC-East, while Ole Miss never had a "worst" game passing. And that's it -- no other SEC team avoided a "worst" game passing or running. It will have to be considered a rebuilding year for the offensive line, getting just two starters back, but MSST has a lot of big bodies ready to plug into the line.
MSST had the worst of the good SEC defenses last year (if that makes sense, lol), I ranked them 25th, 10th best in the conference. After them the 11th best defense is a plummet all the way to 63rd best (TA&M).
MSST goes with an old, new DC this year, Diaz. I project MSST to be about the same as they were last year against the pass, but a little weaker against the run. If their offense can give them leads to work with, though, their new more aggressive defense will be able to play to their strengths.
Look, don't read too much into the Bowl loss to GT last year. GT had possibly the best offense in college football last year (yes, they did!), and MSST didn't have much motivation for the game, which shows up more in defensive effort than anything else. I predicted a GT win -- just like I predict a MSST team will once again be a dangerous enough team offensively to flirt with 10 wins. I generally don't like to bet the Over on teams with a QB that is bound to take a lot hits during the season (with inexperience on the bench behind him), but in this case I'm going to have to. Even if MSST were to lose all of the one score or less games I project, they'll still get 7 wins. I think the Over is a free roll.
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: MSST OVER 7 WINS
Ole Miss
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 8.5 (-115 Over +105 Under)
Like Auburn, Ole Miss had a very promising season slide off the rails late, ending with an embarrassing Bowl blow out loss to TCU. Injuries didn't help, especially the loss of star WR Treadwell. The Ole Miss defense was their calling card (I rank them 2nd overall), but I think their pass defense might be a little over-rated. They started the season off really strong but then had some total clunkers against LSU, AUB, and ARK. They actually did a pretty good job defensively in the Bowl loss, it was the offense that turned in what surely must be one of the worst offensive performances in Bowl history.
Make no mistake, the Bowl loss to TCU was by far the worst passing day Bo Wallace had last year. Post-Treadwell he had a fair day against ARK and a really good day against MSST (thanks to some short runs and/or passes that went for huge gains/scores, from what I remember). It was the running game that Ole Miss could never consistently excel at. Other than that big play game against Ole Miss, they never had any excellent games versus other P-5 schools. Boise St. held them to 2.1 ypc in the season opener.
Wallace is gone, but almost everybody else is back. Their offensive line hasn't been that good, really, but now they're almost all seniors and they've got depth off the bench. Good talent at WR, one explosive RB. If the Rebels can get consistent QB and O-line play they'll be a tough team again.
My ML wins projection is 8.5, right on the betting line, so I'm not even going to take a look at the schedule, lol, it's a pass. If anything, I'd lean Over because Ole Miss should have an improved running game (+5% I project) this year, which should give their new QB some more manageable downs.
Missouri
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 8 (+125 Over -145 Under)
I'm not showing any initial value on this line either. Like TENN are going to be Dobbs and Hurd dependent, MIZZ will be Mauk and Hansbrough dependent for the offense to stay competitive. They'll need that run game to be the meat of the offense, as the Tigers have almost no starting experience at WR and Mauk not being an efficiency type QB to begin with.
The offense wasn't very good last year overall, honestly, they just seemed to be lucky enough to get the plays they needed late to win some close games. The defense was the foundation of their success. Their DC is gone now, as well as many great players up front. The Tigers coaches historically craft excellent defensive lines with average recruiting talent, and this year will test their ability to quickly mold a solid line out of inexperienced pieces. If the d-line can hold down the fort, the linebackers and secondary are rather good and will shine. Still, the run defense was the strength of this team last year.
So both the offense and defense have a questionable unit coming into this season. With HC Pinkel's ability to win with question marks, I'm not going to be the one to shoulder the load of figuring out Missouri ahead of time with a definite prediction. Having my projection the same as the betting number gives me the easiest excuse in the world to pass on a season play for the Tigers.
South Carolina
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 6.5 (-120 Over +100 Under)
The Gamecocks should field a team without such a big gap between their offensive and defensive rankings this year. Last year they were all offense. Spurrier bolstered the defensive front with JUCO transfers, and they return of their players last year, for better or worse. There are no guarantees the offense will match last year's 28th ranking, though. They'll be breaking in a new QB and lost pretty much all of their WR production, outside of the good Pharoh Cooper. The offensive line might regress as well.
To get 7 wins the mostly likely route for the 'Cocks is to win 6 of their 7 home games plus the neutral opener against UNC. The problem is that so many of their games are projected to be fairly close this year, 8 of them being less than 8 point victories for the projected winner. As much as I like the Under here, if SCAR improves dramatically at defense and their offense doesn't drop off too much they could suddenly be looking at a 9 win season. It's not likely, but I'm going to pass on this one. LEAN UNDER.
University of Tennessee
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 8 (-120 Over +100 Under)
Hey UT students -- Being a Volunteer isn't the same thing as giving consent. SMH.
A good defense last year could be even better this year, what with the great recruits they've brought into Knoxville (I'm projecting some minor improvement across the defensive board). Offensively, so much hinges on the health of QB Dobbs and RB Hurd. If the rest of the skill positions develop into reliable threats than the offense will make some good gains this year -- I'm projecting a 10% improvement in the passing game and an 11.5% improvement in the running game. Almost half improvement is due to the Vols high recruit rank -- it may or may not pan out this year, and as I mentioned before, it hinges on the healthy of the key pieces.
Still, even with this upside factored into my lines, I'm not seeing TENN as a prime SEC player yet. I think TENN's floor is 6 games, and a pretty solid one at that, with 5 of those being at home, and the 6th floor piece being @Kentucky. That means TENN could only win one more game for the Under 8 to cash. I have TENN losing enough close games that my ML projection is 7 wins. I'm getting a vibe that they win 8 games, though, with losses against OKLA, UGA, @ALA and ARK, meaning I'll give them a win in the two closest losses I project for them -- @FLA and @MIZZ. Still, it's a pretty strong LEAN UNDER, as the Vols will have to stay healthy and play pretty mistake free for the year for the Under to lose.
Texas A&M
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 8 (+115 Over -135 Under)
Looking at the Aggies success over the past decade, it's pretty obvious to see they peaked with Johnny Manziel at QB. The last two years have seen progressive decline. While QB Allen did have a couple of good games once he took over vs. AUB and WVU, overall his numbers weren't as good as Hill's. Still, with experience and an off-season under his belt, and a good number of weapons returning, the A&M offense has a chance to be pretty good. Their offense line is so/so, and that play up front could be the difference this season.
In the "If you can't beat 'em, have them join you" files, A&M nabbed DC John Chavis in what should be a good move. Chavis has his work cut out for him in trying to mold the SEC's 2nd worst rush defense of last year into a cohesive unit.
I don't see A&M's offense improving that much this year, after all, they were a pretty offense last year even with super dud games against Alabama (the death of Hill) and UL-Monroe (the birth of Allen). They've got a great recruiting rank -- some of that talent and athleticism should be channeled into a better defense this year. But look at that SEC schedule they play. Yeouch. For the Under 8 games to lose, A&M can only have 3 losses max, obviously. They only play 3 true "away" games this year, but with two of those being at Ole Miss and LSU there's a likely 2 losses on the road. So now they can only lose one more game of these -- ASU (neutral field), ARK, MSST, SCAR, and AUB. I project them beating ASU and SCAR, while losing to MSST and AUB. With a floor of 4 wins and a generous ceiling of 9 games (generous because I project them to be double digit+ losers in 5 games), it looks like a no-brainer to take the Under 8 here, and hope that any defensive improvement A&M this year isn't enough to catch up to the many better teams in the SEC this year.
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: TEXAS A&M UNDER 8 WINS
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: KENTUCKY UNDER 5.5 WINS
Vanderbilt
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 3.5 (+125 Over -145 Under)
Football life is rough as clearly the worst team in SEC football. Vandy was rather young last year, so many freshman saw significant playing time. They at least have the benefit of a more experienced roster this year, even if now they're just sophomores.
HC Mason had a rude SEC awakening in his first year last season, going winless in conference play. Mason hit the coordinator reset button after the season, so it's more newness for his young squad again.
I do fondly recall backing them as a big home dog against TENN last year, a winner that seemed to be me against the universe on TENN, lol. It was one of those rare games where I disagreed strongly with the market...and came out ahead. I usually don't like to tangle with the market if we have differing opinions.
I'm showing 75 cents of value on the Over 3.5 for VAN, so let's see what the win floor looks like: Hmm, other than Austin Peay I don't have VAN as a very big favorite in any of their projected wins. I have them winning by less than 3 points vs WKU, @MTU and @HOU. 2 out of those 3 plus Austin gives them 3 wins. So if they don't get their best case scenario their next best chances for a win come vs Kentucky and @ SCAR. While it might be hard to pin point their 4th win, I think they get it. VAN might be the only team where my Raw and ML projected wins are the exact same number , in this case 4. Still, with a true floor of only 1 win, I'm going to have to pass. LEAN OVER.
There it is, my final conference season wins preview! To coincide with my final preview, I've launched a new free website where I'll post all of my content this year. I'll be posting most of my plays most quickly on Twitter, as well. I'm searchable for both. I'll still be here, too. Hard to kick those 15+ year habits.
