see. . .what OF just said is very similar to what I said and were just plain sick at football. I mean, I know OF is nasty, and me in 2002 CFB season at OSB in a field over a 100 I was dead last at the end of september -60 units in CFB. but I finished at +245 a good 20 untis over everyone else. . .rules were 1-10 unit max no ML dogs bigger than +200. .and to me it really is all about looking at what these teams will do in relation to a posted line to me that is talent, of course amoung other factors but it is talent first. I mean the book uses that first, so why not the capper?!
thats BS! who the hell can come up with a line before the book?! they are up sunday night at olympic before the damn sunday game has finished. ok, you can make a line before you see the books line but that isnt the same thing. you have to throw out everything and see which team is actually better, thats how you arrive at the "wrong team is favored here" or even with totals "these offenses much better than that, total set way too low"
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Judge Wapner:
I'm with Blue,fading the public.Second most important,fading Shrink.I also look for let down games.but those always coincide with fading the public. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I agree with Judge..though "fading shrink" might be the answer Shrink will tell us
...I still think its coaching
I'm with Blue,fading the public.Second most important,fading Shrink.I also look for let down games.but those always coincide with fading the public. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I agree with Judge..though "fading shrink" might be the answer Shrink will tell us
I know a few years back the straight up winner in college and pro football took home the money at about a 3 to 1 clip...
I don't know how that figure relates to todays games, as I have pretty much stuck with totals.....I did chart the straight up winner covering the spread a while back and the numbers were about the same....pick the straight up winner, forget about the pointspread (of course get the best number that supports your position)....and get paid about 75% of the time....
If you don't believe me, look at your bookie sheet after a weekend, and circle all the games where the team who won the game also covered the pointspread....do this for a few weeks...
This is pretty general and doesn't go into specifics about injuries, o-lines, d-lines,home field, and all those things that help determine who is actually going to win.....
If I had to guess anything specific it would be rushing yards and the play of the offensive line....good rushing game opens up the passing game and also allows the opposing defense to be worn down and consequently caves in....nice to eat clock and protect a lead with the running game....
I don't know how that figure relates to todays games, as I have pretty much stuck with totals.....I did chart the straight up winner covering the spread a while back and the numbers were about the same....pick the straight up winner, forget about the pointspread (of course get the best number that supports your position)....and get paid about 75% of the time....
If you don't believe me, look at your bookie sheet after a weekend, and circle all the games where the team who won the game also covered the pointspread....do this for a few weeks...
This is pretty general and doesn't go into specifics about injuries, o-lines, d-lines,home field, and all those things that help determine who is actually going to win.....
If I had to guess anything specific it would be rushing yards and the play of the offensive line....good rushing game opens up the passing game and also allows the opposing defense to be worn down and consequently caves in....nice to eat clock and protect a lead with the running game....
