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Railbird

Railbird

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Kingdom come

Not trying to embarass you but educate-help. Here is Sports Savant take on teaser arena football


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<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->railbird, we both know it is sheer idiocy, but sometimes people are stubborn....

lets say they hit two or three of these teasers where the "points mattered" they might then blindly conclude that these teasers are the pot of god at the end of the rainbow.....

again, (IMO) teasing anything other than NFL (in some cases) and NCAAF and CFL (in extremly rare cases), is a losing proposition.
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KingdomCome

KingdomCome

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Railbird said:
Kingdom come

Not trying to embarass you but educate-help. Here is Sports Savant take on teaser arena football



<TABLE class=tborder id=post5148870 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #fdde82 0px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #fdde82 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #fdde82 0px solid" width=175>SportSavant<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> vbmenu_register("postmenu_5148870", true); </SCRIPT>
Contest Nazi



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<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->railbird, we both know it is sheer idiocy, but sometimes people are stubborn....

lets say they hit two or three of these teasers where the "points mattered" they might then blindly conclude that these teasers are the pot of god at the end of the rainbow.....

again, (IMO) teasing anything other than NFL (in some cases) and NCAAF and CFL (in extremly rare cases), is a losing proposition.

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Thank you for another opinion..... I think your point is taken and I will stick to what makes me money and yourself and SS can stick to what you guys do. Last time I checked, certain people did not do so well in posted plays in these same sports we are referencing. Thanks for coming by.... Bye :toast:
 
KingdomCome

KingdomCome

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mtx said:
phx is toast
Click to expand...

I literally just woke up. Fell asleep with the Suns up 2. LMAO, only in the National Bullshit League. %^_If I ever bet an NBA game before the playoffs, someone please provide me with the shotgun in advance so I can off myself instead of betting that nonsense league.

Good luck to those on the Col/Columbus game. :toast:
 

Cougar24

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Kingdom Come said:
I literally just woke up. Fell asleep with the Suns up 2. LMAO, only in the National Bullshit League. %^_If I ever bet an NBA game before the playoffs, someone please provide me with the shotgun in advance so I can off myself instead of betting that nonsense league.

Good luck to those on the Col/Columbus game. :toast:
Click to expand...

No SHIT !!! I did the same thing , saw the Suns were up and called it a night !
 
hm2.0

hm2.0

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Teasers don't work with the possible exception of the NFL and even then I wouldn't play them.

:lolBIG:I actually agree with Rail on this matter. :ohno:
 
VoiceofReason101

VoiceofReason101

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The funny thing is nowhere did I read that KC asked for advice as to how he should change his betting style.

Good Day
 
KingdomCome

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VoiceofReason101 said:
The funny thing is nowhere did I read that KC asked for advice as to how he should change his betting style.

Good Day
Click to expand...

Thanks Voice, no point in debating with people that are never wrong. At the end of the day it is my money and I do what I want to do. For HM to say he would never do it in NFL, who gives a shit. I have seen you personally make good money with teasers and I made a boat load in the last year off teasers.

Rail is just on my nuts cause he is in a cold streak like 0-11 in his posted plays and never keeps a real record of his overall record. Plays heavy chalk straight up and trying to advise me...... Okay buddy, us "kids" know it all about our money. See ya for the 5th time. :toast:

H.M: No disrespect but your opinion is taken and you are you and I am me. Hey listen, if you actually teased the only play you played, you would have 6-7.5 points towards another game with the option to play for the middle or just hold your value. You bet TB -2 and they won by 2 :sad3: If you teased it, it would have won instead of pushed and there would have been no stress involved if you were following the game.... Have a good day guys, this topic is a dead one.

Voice I figured I would post one teaser play where I probably made more money then all of these dudes questioning teasers in ONE PLAY below. Good luck to you sir.


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afl 2008 - week 1
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Storm -2



Just gonna post the current consensus line.
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For the teaser non-believers (now stay out of my threads, unless you actually have some good information to contribute with):


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Crown me or protect me, depends on the game....



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LSU +3.5 for 32K, need your assistance!!
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Okay so we beat up on the books for the last month and anytime I go on these crazy runs, as you know sometimes I take a shot for the home run. Here is the situation, I had a dream about me winning large one morning and I woke up at 5am and popped a 7 team teaser for 4K to win 32K, 6 have won now I have LSU +3.5 for the final leg. If you were in this situation what would you do?

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="98%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#99cccc><TD width="22%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial]Jan 5 5:12am[/FONT]</TD><TD align=left width="32%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial]7 Team Teaser - Pending[/FONT]</TD><TD width="30%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial]2000.00 to win 16000.00[/FONT]</TD><TD align=right width="15%"></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#99cccc><TD width="100%" colSpan=4>[FONT=Verdana, Arial]1. Football - Seattle Seahawks - spread +3½ (-110)
for the entire game held on Jan 5 at 4:30pm [winner] [/FONT]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#99cccc><TD width="100%" colSpan=4>[FONT=Verdana, Arial]2. Football - Pittsburgh Steelers - spread +10 (-110)
for the entire game held on Jan 5 at 8:00pm [winner] [/FONT]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#99cccc><TD width="100%" colSpan=4>[FONT=Verdana, Arial]3. Football - Rutgers - spread -3½ (-110)
for the entire game held on Jan 5 at 12:00pm [winner] [/FONT]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#99cccc><TD width="100%" colSpan=4>[FONT=Verdana, Arial]4. Football - San Diego Chargers - spread -3 (-110)
for the entire game held on Jan 6 at 4:30pm [winner] [/FONT]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#99cccc><TD width="100%" colSpan=4>[FONT=Verdana, Arial]5. Football - LSU - spread +3½ (-110)
for the entire game held on Jan 7 at 8:00pm [pending] [/FONT]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#99cccc><TD width="100%" colSpan=4>[FONT=Verdana, Arial]6. Football - Jacksonville Jaguars/Pittsburgh Steelers - total Over 32½ (-110)
for the entire game held on Jan 5 at 8:00pm [winner] [/FONT]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#99cccc><TD width="100%" colSpan=4>[FONT=Verdana, Arial]7. Football - New York Giants/Tampa Bay Buccaneers - total Over 32 (-110)
for the entire game held on Jan 6 at 1:00pm [winner] [/FONT]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000 colspan="4"><TD></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#99cccc><TD width="22%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial]Jan 5 5:13am[/FONT]</TD><TD align=left width="32%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial]7 Team Teaser - Pending[/FONT]</TD><TD width="30%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial]2005.29 to win 16042.32[/FONT]</TD><TD align=right width="15%"></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#99cccc><TD width="100%" colSpan=4>[FONT=Verdana, Arial]1. Football - Seattle Seahawks - spread +3½ (-110)
for the entire game held on Jan 5 at 4:30pm [winner] [/FONT]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#99cccc><TD width="100%" colSpan=4>[FONT=Verdana, Arial]2. Football - Pittsburgh Steelers - spread +10 (-110)
for the entire game held on Jan 5 at 8:00pm [winner] [/FONT]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#99cccc><TD width="100%" colSpan=4>[FONT=Verdana, Arial]3. Football - Jacksonville Jaguars/Pittsburgh Steelers - total Over 32½ (-110)
for the entire game held on Jan 5 at 8:00pm [winner] [/FONT]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#99cccc><TD width="100%" colSpan=4>[FONT=Verdana, Arial]4. Football - Rutgers - spread -3½ (-110)
for the entire game held on Jan 5 at 12:00pm [winner] [/FONT]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#99cccc><TD width="100%" colSpan=4>[FONT=Verdana, Arial]5. Football - New York Giants/Tampa Bay Buccaneers - total Over 32 (-110)
for the entire game held on Jan 6 at 1:00pm [winner] [/FONT]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#99cccc><TD width="100%" colSpan=4>[FONT=Verdana, Arial]6. Football - San Diego Chargers - spread -3 (-110)
for the entire game held on Jan 6 at 4:30pm [winner] [/FONT]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#99cccc><TD width="100%" colSpan=4>[FONT=Verdana, Arial]7. Football - LSU - spread +3½ (-110)
for the entire game held on Jan 7 at 8:00pm [pending] [/FONT]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Give me your thoughts, I have about 24 hours to make a serious decision.

Video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3-4BR9iTj4

:smoker2:
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chengkeke

chengkeke

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Kingdom Come said:
Yessir, indeed I got in at +1 but posted -1.5 cause that was what was available when I posted so I wanted to be fair to those who might follow. If they happen to lose by 1 or win by 1, I will count it as an L here at the Rx. This was the line I was referring to when I said there is one that is juicy off. Good luck to us, would love to win this one together with you!! Lets kick off the season on a positive note!! :toast:
Click to expand...
:103631605 Thanks for coming Kingdomcome! Easy winner.

This is your style and no defense needed for me. Win is a win doesn't matter to me how it comes! Keep them coming please.

Just put more on sj over and hope to win this one with you too!:toast:
 
Woody0

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Well I wasn't going to weigh in on teasers since I thought KC handled it very well two days ago, but since it has been resurrected I thought I'd give my take on the issue.

I believe Rail's point was that teasers have less value in AFL than NFL since the game totals are far higher and so the extra 6, 7.5 points moves the team total a lower percentage. This is true. I chose to look at it as shifting the team total, rather than focusing on the spread, to emphasize this difference.

However from what little I've seen of AFL it looks more like basketball than football. By this I mean each team has a high percentage of scoring on each possession and the game goes back and forth with the occasional defensive stop being critical.

So it would be more realistic to compare these teasers to those in basketball. So how do 6 and 7.5 point AFL teasers compare with 4.5 and 5.5 basketball teasers? Well basketball typically has scores twice as high as AFL while the highest point value is 3 rather than 7. Considering this I observe that the basketball 5.5 teaser covers 2 scores (provided they are not both 3 pointers) while the 7.5 AFL teaser covers 1 score making them essentially equivalent. Similarly the 4.5 basketball teaser will only cover 2 minor scores while the 6 point AFL teaser will only match two minor scores or an unconverted major.

I have no opinion whether basketball or AFL teasers are worth playing but am willing to learn particularly from any data someone has, rather than all the hand waving, mine and others.

Finally, from the above, I can understand how KC really values the 7.5/-110 teaser over the 6/+100 teaser, available for those who are able to play at Pinnacle.
 

Hustler982

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KC,
I missed the parlay. would you recommend teasing SJ and the over? my local has it at 97.5
Thanks
 

rza

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Railbird said:
Kingdom come

Not trying to embarass you but educate-help. Here is Sports Savant take on teaser arena football



<TABLE class=tborder id=post5148870 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #fdde82 0px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #fdde82 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #fdde82 0px solid" width=175>SportSavant<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> vbmenu_register("postmenu_5148870", true); </SCRIPT>
Contest Nazi



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<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->railbird, we both know it is sheer idiocy, but sometimes people are stubborn....

lets say they hit two or three of these teasers where the "points mattered" they might then blindly conclude that these teasers are the pot of god at the end of the rainbow.....

again, (IMO) teasing anything other than NFL (in some cases) and NCAAF and CFL (in extremly rare cases), is a losing proposition.

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this has to be one of the most condescending posts i’ve seen in a long time. you’ve only succeeded in embarrassing yourself. and you present no facts, no data, just some post from SportSavant to back up your opinion. and who the fuck is sportsSavant?? is his word supposed to carry some weight??
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Jerry Brown in 2008!!!!!!!! Hahahahahaha
<o:p></o:p>
keep doing your thing King. all the winners are greatly appreciated. good luck tonight.
 
KingdomCome

KingdomCome

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Kingdom Come said:
People are hammering the under in the san jose and chicago game. Yes the both have good defenses but they also have great offenses.




Official play:

sj/chi over 98.5 -105 ($315 to win $300)
Click to expand...

Guys I think the total is a 50/50 bet and there is no value either way. This is more of a gut feeling that Bonner and Grieb on national television get back to their SJ/Ari ways and put up some points.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL TONIGHT!! :toast:
 

knowthegame

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KC-
So your two bets for the night in AFL are both OVERS correct?? with the SJ +7 teaser left also??
 
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