The infamous "Pinnacle Lean" thread

[quantumleap]

I've found interesting patterns while doing this exercise. While I am right around the even mark there are significant differences between books. Here is the record for each book:

Centrebet 6-2, +2.46
Interwetten 6-10, -4.70
Eurobet 1-4, -4.30
Ladbrokes 1-0, +0.81
Fonbet 3-1, +3.20
NordicBet 1-0, +0.85

While I think it's too early to start fading Interwetten and Eurobet on this type of bet I think it is wise to continue to break down the books as they seem to be writing the lines consistently to this point.

 

[quantumleap]

Finland Veikkausliga
FC Haka Valkeakoski - IFK Mariehamn over 2.5 -111 Centrebet
(Pinnacle: over 2.75 +103)

FF Jaro - FC Honka Espoo over 2.5 -133 Interwetten
(Pinnacle: over 2.75 -116)

Norway, Tippeligaen
Sandefjord - Odd Grenland over 2.5 -125 Centrebet
(Pinnacle: over 2.75 -111)

 

[quantumleap]

FC Haka Valkeakoski - IFK Mariehamn over 2.5, 1-0, -1.00
FF Jaro - FC Honka Espoo over 2.5, +0.75
Sandefjord - Odd Grenland over 2.5, 1-3, +0.80

Today: +0.55
Pinnacle today: +0.76

I think that's the first time Pinnacle's bets have been better. This was due to a last-minute goal in the Sandefjord - Odd Grenland match that prevented them from pushing.

YTD: -0.33
Pinnacle YTD: -4.67

 

[shivan]

Newb Question

I just saw that "over 2.5 and 3" on Pinnacle. But I dont understand what it means? Then I found this tread on google.

Can someone explain to me whatever it means??

 

[shivan]

oh yes and what does this "over 2.5 and 3 - 110" mean? Sorry for sounding so stupid but im from Europe and we do not use the american bettingsystems.

 

[quantumleap]

oh yes and what does this "over 2.5 and 3 - 110" mean? Sorry for sounding so stupid but im from Europe and we do not use the american bettingsystems.

No problem shivan. "over 2.5 and 3 -110" means that half of the bet is at "over 2.5 -110" and half the bet is at "over 3 -110". The -110 part is American odds. They are equivalent to 1.91 odds in decimal, or European odds.

You could also state this bet as "over 2.75 1.91". The 2.75 is equivalent to "over 2.5 and 3". It's just a shorter way of writing it.

 

[quantumleap]

UEFA Euro Qualification
Estonia - FYR of Macedonia under 2.5 -143 Eurobet
(Pinnacle: under 2.25 -125)

 

[quantumleap]

UEFA Cup
Wisla Plock - Chernomorets Odessa under 2.5-167 Fonbet
(Pinnacle: under 2.25 -146)

 

[peskypup]

it's not too early to fade Interwetten and Eurobet, my granny could set sharper odds than those 2! (and she is dead)

 

[quantumleap]

it's not too early to fade Interwetten and Eurobet, my granny could set sharper odds than those 2! (and she is dead)

I have them at the same price as Fonbet.

 

[quantumleap]

UEFA Cup
Wisla Plock - Chernomorets Odessa under 2.5-167 Fonbet
(Pinnacle: under 2.25 -146)

Final score: 1-1 +0.60
YTD: +0.96

 

[quantumleap]

Holland - Eerstdivisie
Haarlem FC - Stichting Go Ahead Eagles over 2.5 -154 Centrebet
(Pinnacle: over 2.75 -143)

 

[quantumleap]

Holland - Eerstdivisie
Haarlem FC - Stichting Go Ahead Eagles over 2.5 -154 Centrebet
(Pinnacle: over 2.75 -143)

1-1. -1.00
A goal was negated at the 45', otherwise this one should have gone over.

YTD: -0.04

 

[Hooligans]

:hanging:

1-1. -1.00
A goal was negated at the 45', otherwise this one should have gone over.

YTD: -0.04

 

[quantumleap]

Finland - Veikkausliga
MyPa Anjalankoski - Turku PS under 2.5 -125 Centrebet
(Pinnacle: under 2.25 -105)

 

[quantumleap]

Greece - A League
Panionios vs Olympiakos under 2.5 -104 Eurobet
(Pinnacle: under 2.25 -106)

 

[quantumleap]

MyPa 1, Turku 2, Loss -1.00.

Panionios 0, Oly 3 (90th minute goal), Loss -1.00.

YTD: -2.04.

I believe I won't pursue this test any more. There doesn't appear to be any advantage to following Pinnacle's lean. The Fonbet bets did rather well but so did the Centrebet bets until the last 2 matches.

I still have the data so I may try to do an analysis to see if there are any trends such as fading Pinnacle's leans. If I find something I'll report it here.

Until then, arrivederci!

 

[acw]

see if there are any trends such as fading Pinnacle's leans.

That is exactly what you should do, though to make real money out of it, you will need a few Asian accounts, as Pinnacle always seems to be a bit in the middle of what other Asian books are offering and do not lay big amounts. In those situations where they do have the best price, their maximum will at most be US$500 (read a real waste of time).

 

[quantumleap]

That is exactly what you should do, though to make real money out of it, you will need a few Asian accounts, as Pinnacle always seems to be a bit in the middle of what other Asian books are offering and do not lay big amounts. In those situations where they do have the best price, their maximum will at most be US$500 (read a real waste of time).

Thanks for the feedback acw. You know I always value your soccer wisdom.

Hey, have you been to the Ipanema bar lately? I met up with a nice Vietnamese woman there a while back.

 

[acw]

I met up with a nice Vietnamese woman there a while back.

Me too. One that I knew from Macau. They seem to fly back and forth.