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DAY 6: THREE TO WATCH

There are plenty of featured days each Roland-Garros fortnight: ones that hold special tension for players and fans alike.
The first Friday, Day 6, is one of them. It marks the start of third-round play, and a true pivot of the event into its business end, with coveted spots in the round of 16 on offer in both the men’s and women’s singles draws as the middle weekend gets underway.
This year, Friday is set to deliver again in Paris, with all eyes on the continued potential of a Carlos Alcaraz-Novak Djokovic semi-final showdown; the winners of the three most recent major men's singles titles are both due to play.
Should that final four clash take place it will be a week from Friday – another RG day to look forward to.
 

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Shapovalov offers Alcaraz challenge​

For the world No.1 to keep his campaign alive, he’ll have to get past his stiffest of tests so far this week, taking on the big-hitting Canadian lefty Denis Shapovalov, the No.26 seed.
It’s their first meeting, but the two have practised together in Barcelona at Alcaraz’s training base, and Carlitos is well aware of the dynamite that can come off the Shapo racquet: “Everybody knows his level. He's a really dangerous player.”
Shapovalov has already had his best effort in Paris, having previously made the second round just twice. He’s 0-8 in his career when playing a world No.1, but has a trio of top-five wins to his name. He also loves a big stage, which this match will certainly have as the featured night session battle on Court Philippe-Chatrier.
The attack plan for Shapovalov? Go big and then go bigger. He has the firepower to oust Alcaraz, but can he maintain the consistency?
 

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RG resurrections: Pavlyuchenkova, Fognini and more​

The opening five days have already offered a host of storylines that will be on display on Friday, including the resurgence of 2021 runner-up Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, the 31-year-old who has slipped to No.333 in the singles rankings.
She has looked like her 2021 self so far, however, beating up-and-coming teen Linda Fruhvirtova and then taking out No.15 seed Liudmila Samsonova. She meets another Anastasia – Potapova – for a spot in the fourth round.
Pavlyuchenkova’s fellow 30-something (and crowd favourite) Fabio Fognini has played vintage tennis, too, especially in a three-set stunner over No.10 seed Felix Auger-Aliassime in the first round.
The Italian is looking for just his fourth last-16 run in 16 Roland-Garros appearances, with Austria’s Sebastian Ofner, who took out Australian Open semi-finalist Sebastian Korda, standing in his way.
The throwback stories are aplenty. Also in action on Friday: new mum Elina Svitolina; former semi-finalist Diego Schwartzman; and Sloane Stephens, the 2018 runner-up. All finding some of their best tennis when it matters most.
 

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Djokovic faces ADF test​

It was no easy three-setter for 2015 and 2021 champion Djokovic when he beat Marton Fucsovics in round two, and his passage into the second week doesn’t get easier when he meets feisty Spaniard Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
Davidovich Fokina won their most recent meeting, last year on clay in Monte-Carlo, so the 29th seed will likely draw from that experience, though toppling Nole over five sets is nearly a different sport altogether.
The Spaniard has faced two Frenchmen to open the tournament, but he could have the crowd on his side on Chatrier, where fans are never shy about cheering for the underdog.
Djokovic, astoundingly, is into his 18th consecutive third round, having only failed to get past this point once, in 2005. He’s looking for an 88th RG victory on Friday, while Davidovich Fokina, a quarter-finalist here in 2021, is after his eighth.
 

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HUGE, HUGE FAN' SHAPOVALOV PREPARES FOR ALCARAZ.
The former world No.10 is thrilled to have landed a third-round battle with the top seed.
It's a mission only Jannik Sinner, Cameron Norrie and Fabian Marozsan have accomplished in 2023. That is: to defeat world No.1 Carlos Alcaraz.
The 20-year-old Spanish sensation has a pretty spectacular 32-3 record this season, including his first two matches at Roland-Garros. Step forward Denis Shapovalov, the Canadian world No.32 who faces the Spaniard in the third round.
Speaking to the media following his second-round victory over Italy's Matteo Arnaldi, Shapovalov had some high praise for his next opponent.
"First of all, I'm a huge, huge fan of his... I think he's a great guy. He's super humble for achieving what he has at such a young age," he said.
You can see how much he enjoys being on the court and the situations that are coming forward to him. He's not in an easy spot being No.1 and so young and so much noise around him.
"I really look up to him. I think he is also just a nice guy. In the locker rooms he's always saying hi. He's always been polite since he came onto the scene. I think he has a great team around him."

Mutual respect​

That is some pretty high praise, which Alcaraz returned in kind.
"I have never played against him. But I practised in Barcelona with him. But everybody knows his level," said the top seed. "He's a really dangerous player. He has great shots.
"It's going to be really difficult, really difficult match."
Shapovalov showed that danger in a 6-2, 3-6, 6-3, 6-3 dismissal of Arnaldi, a step in the right direction after a clay season disrupted by a left knee issue.

Uncharted territory​

The 24-year-old could only compete in Barcelona and Madrid on the road to Roland-Garros, posting a 1-2 match record. He might be underprepared, but the Canadian is relishing the chance to show what he can do when up against the best.
"It's going to be a challenge. It's going to be a tough battle. He's a great player, obviously everywhere, but especially on clay courts. Three out of five is not going to be easy against him, but I'm looking forward to it," he said, looking ahead to a first third-round appearance here in Paris.
"Honestly, going into this tournament I didn't really know what to expect. I was barely playing any tennis, just trying to see how the knee is this week and try to play as much as possible."
Here I am making my best result at the French, so maybe I should practise less. But, I'll give it my all. I'll see how it is. Hopefully the knee is good for the match," he added.
"It's nice to put yourself in these situations."
It's at the other three majors where the Canadian has already showed his potential.
He made the quarter-finals at the 2020 US Open and 2022 Australian Open, book-ending a semi-final showing at Wimbledon in 2021.

Zero expectations'​

Shapovalov is discovering advantages to his time away from the court.
"In general, whenever you have results, then you get expectations and then there's a lot of pressure behind it. That's why I said I respect Alcaraz a lot because he's been able to deal with the noise very well thus far," Shapovalov said.
"It's just something I'm learning still, not to focus too much on the results. For better or for worse, having an injury, it's obviously not great. But having a week like this week where there's zero expectations because I'm just coming to see how I am physically, that's almost when you produce your best tennis.
"That's kind of a lesson to myself and how I have to keep going. I just need to focus on myself and try to do the best. I think the results come on their own."
 

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A couple friday ideas

Yulia Putintseva (+158) over Sloane Stephens​

Sloane Stephens has enjoyed plenty of success at Roland Garros over her career, and she's a -194 favorite to advance past Yulia Putintseva to the next round. But could she be on upset alert in this third-round match?

Per Tennis Abstract, clay is by far Putintseva's best surface. In WTA-level events, she has a 60.5% win percentage on clay (66.7% over the last 52 weeks), whereas she's below .500 on hard courts and grass.

While she went just 6-4 in her spring clay matches, two of her losses came against elite opponents in Caroline Garcia and Coco Gauff, which is certainly nothing to be ashamed of. She's coming off an impressive second-round win over Qinwen Zheng, too, who's top 20 in both the world rankings and Tennis Abstract's surface-adjusted Elo ratings.

As a former major champion and the 30th-ranked player, Stephens is clearly the better all-around player than Putintseva, and she went 7-4 on clay prior to the French Open, which included a WTA 125 title at Saint Malo. However, just one of those wins came against an opponent inside the top 100, so we might want to take that record with a grain of salt.

Stephens has also struggled in big tournaments overall this season, getting bounced in the opening rounds of the Australian Open, Indian Wells, Miami, and Madrid.

In the head-to-head between these two, Putintseva leads 3-2 and won their most recent matchup in 2021 at the Australian Open.

At the end of the day, Tennis Abstract sees this as a toss-up and projects a slight edge to Putintseva at 50.3%. But at +158 odds, that implied a win probability of just 38.8%, so it looks like the Kazakhstani player isn't getting enough credit.

Cameron Norrie (+140) over Lorenzo Musetti​

On the men's side, we have a match between two top-20 players in Cameron Norrie (No. 13) and Lorenzo Musetti (No. 18), but it's the lower-ranked one who's favored.

Admittedly, Norrie didn't have an amazing spring on clay -- which included a loss to Musetti -- but he's gone 16-6 on the surface this calendar year, which included winning the Rio de Janeiro final over Carlos Alcaraz. For those keeping track at home, Alcaraz has lost just three times all year and is the favorite to win this tournament.

Clay is also easily Norrie's best career surface with a 63.8% win percentage.

Musetti had a much stronger run-up to the French Open, which included wins over Novak Djokovic, Norrie, Jannik Sinner, and Frances Tiafoe, and even his losses were against top-tier competition like Stefanos Tsitsipas (twice) and Sinner.

Perhaps that means Musetti is peaking at just the right time, but if we extend the sample to his entire 2023 record on clay, it's just 9-8, and he's also just one match above .500 overall this season.

Going by Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings, Norrie ranks 9th when adjusted for clay, whereas Musettig is 18th. Norrie projects as the winner 62.9% of the time, which compares favorably to his 41.3% implied odds at this price.
 

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I fade all black tennis players
Sloans Stevens is a piece of shit racist
She's a scumbag
 

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