She's +350 to win Wimbledon
| ||||||
| 207251 | Iga Swiatek | +350 | ||||
| 207254 | Elena Rybakina | +375 | ||||
| 207256 | Aryna Sabalenka | +450 |
Iga Swiatek vs. Karolina Muchova
Iga Swiatek -5.5 Games (-144)Honestly, with all due respect to Karolina Muchova, who's coming off a gritty win over Aryna Sabalenka, it's hard to see her keeping pace with Iga Swiatek, who's bulldozed everyone in her path at this tournament.
Swiatek hasn't dropped a set, and this is her third French Open final in the past four years. She's now 27-2 at this event, good for an absurd 93.1% win percentage. She's lost just three times on clay over the last 52 weeks (20-3), with all three losses coming against top-10 opponents -- and one of them was due to her retiring from a mid-match injury.
While Swiatek has barely had to break a sweat, Muchova logged over three hours of court time to complete her semifinal upset of Sabalenka, which cracked the top 20 longest women's matches of 2023. She survived despite facing 13 break points -- Sabalenka only converted four of them -- and faced match point in the third set down 2-5 before winning five straight games to steal the match.
In other words, if a few points go differently, we could very well be seeing Sabalenka in this final instead.
Muchova's played well on clay over the last 52 weeks (10-2), but this is her first time ever making it past the third round at Roland Garros, and this is her first ever major final appearance. She's also won just one WTA singles title in her career, which came on hard courts in 2019.
Ultimately, it just doesn't seem likely that the World No. 43 will be the one to take a set from Swiatek -- let alone two. Iga is a massive -850 favorite, and Tennis Abstract projects her to win this matchup 87.1% of the time. Obviously, that moneyline price is far too steep, so targeting the spread is the better value. Swiatek has covered 5.5 games in four of the five full matches she's played over these past two weeks.
