I've humbled many.
Piggybacking off 22PO's post, the post Super Bowl record for the computer program currently (up to date) is 25-33 or 43.10%.
Overall, the record is 76-57 or 57.14%
It certainly is a tale of two halves. First half was simply stupendous. Then slow and steady erosion so far in the second half.
Just an interesting observation.
!/2016 Top Program Plays
76-57 (+33.25 units) (+$3325)
57.14% Winners
Feb 28
SMU Over 136
$330 to win $300
San Jose (-150) NHL
$450 to win $300
Incubus is correct..
I have a couple things to say about this.
1. The win %%% is exactly where id projected it to be from the start (57.14%).. Did we simply have a regression to the mean, if so,
now is the ideal time to follow this program.
2. Please remember, I will be playing the selections entirely from the profits that I have made in 2016. That is a huge advantage for me.
My opinion is the programs will maintain a 57.14% win rate, against an average (-110) line on the losses.
Good luck with whatever u decide, the thread is merely a way for me to keep a detailed record of my programs performance in 2016. I have no desire in anything else currently. If u play the selections and they lose, that's entirely on you and not me. If you fade the selections and you win, congratulations.
Falcon
76-57 (+33.25 units) (+$3325)
57.14% Winners
Feb 28
SMU Over 136
$330 to win $300
San Jose (-150) NHL
$450 to win $300
Incubus is correct..
I have a couple things to say about this.
1. The win %%% is exactly where id projected it to be from the start (57.14%).. Did we simply have a regression to the mean, if so,
now is the ideal time to follow this program.
2. Please remember, I will be playing the selections entirely from the profits that I have made in 2016. That is a huge advantage for me.
My opinion is the programs will maintain a 57.14% win rate, against an average (-110) line on the losses.
Good luck with whatever u decide, the thread is merely a way for me to keep a detailed record of my programs performance in 2016. I have no desire in anything else currently. If u play the selections and they lose, that's entirely on you and not me. If you fade the selections and you win, congratulations.
Falcon
+1
I wish you the best of luck maintaining the 57.14% win rate despite the current "post" Super Bowl negative trending.
I'm certain everyone knows they must take personal responsibility in either tailing or fading you on these plays you post.
I'd advise people be diligent and do independent research on each selection generated by the computer program from now on.
No more blind tailing at this juncture. One could get away with this risky practice "pre" Super Bowl, but not now.
This only makes sense and is responsible.
Well, let's hope the $3325 profits don't "disappear" and hopefully the current erosion rate can be stemmed/reversed. This has been an extremely entertaining
and more importantly profitable thread to be sure. Especially "pre" Super Bowl. 51-25 ATS or 67.2% was insanely GREAT! I'd be curious to see how if
this program can replicate that level of success "pre" Super Bowl in the next 2016-17 basketball season. Something to ponder and look forward to for next season.
You have a good day as well!
Thanks Mack, I've been around a very longtime and I understand just how hard it is to win consistently in this business. In July 2011 I stopped handicapping completely, I have since devoted 100% of my time to programming. I also created a betting format that I'm going to try and follow in 2016. I don't understand how people do this without a detailed plan.
Falcon
Falcon
Incubus, u are correct. But the fact is streaks or runs will always happen. I'm hoping today is the day that a run of 35-15 begins over the next 50 plays.
In fact let's put the next 50 plays under a microscope. I'll run this thread as long as its profitable, hopefully the profits will last thru the 50 plays.
My programs 2 strongest plays are set to go today.. Let's see what happens next..
Falcon
In fact let's put the next 50 plays under a microscope. I'll run this thread as long as its profitable, hopefully the profits will last thru the 50 plays.
My programs 2 strongest plays are set to go today.. Let's see what happens next..
Falcon
k:1. SMU Over 136.. I have the total at 148.5, a full 12.5pt difference. I wagered $330 to win $300 on this play.
2. San Jose (-150).. I have a rating of +37.20 on this. It is the highest win rate and rating on my board today. And this is with the line included.
I'm out for a couple hours, catch u guys later
Falcon
2. San Jose (-150).. I have a rating of +37.20 on this. It is the highest win rate and rating on my board today. And this is with the line included.
I'm out for a couple hours, catch u guys later
Falcon
if i may, i would like to make 2 points about the after superbowl malaise. if my points were touched upon then i apologize as i have not read the entire thread but merely the last page.
1. give the linemaker credit for tightening up his lines to provide a more accurate projection of the final outcomes of games. we are all looking for "holes" in the line and, as the season progresses, those holes shrink in size and make it more difficult for us to succeed. please remember that there are extremely sharp people making lines and they work as hard as we do.
2. one would have to take into account the wins that are classified as "lucky" and were there many lucky wins before the superbowl and is that regressing to a 50/50 split after the superbowl. i do not know the answer to that question as i have just started to read this thread. back in the 1980's there was a handicapper here in vegas by the name of jim barnes who wrote and published the "journal of handicapping". jim was a fine gentleman and a very creative thinker who returned to iowa in the late 80's, i believe. he mad several statements which i have never forgotten and have guided me throught 30+years of wagering. my point here is that he stated that 50% of the games we wager will be determined by luck and there is nothing that we can do will change that dynamic. we are going to win 25% by luck and we are going to lose 25% by luck !! it is what we do with the other 50% that will "separate the men from the boys".
i hope that these perspectives may help when you consider how difficult it is to consistently win at sports wagering. never underestimate the linemaker.
1. give the linemaker credit for tightening up his lines to provide a more accurate projection of the final outcomes of games. we are all looking for "holes" in the line and, as the season progresses, those holes shrink in size and make it more difficult for us to succeed. please remember that there are extremely sharp people making lines and they work as hard as we do.
2. one would have to take into account the wins that are classified as "lucky" and were there many lucky wins before the superbowl and is that regressing to a 50/50 split after the superbowl. i do not know the answer to that question as i have just started to read this thread. back in the 1980's there was a handicapper here in vegas by the name of jim barnes who wrote and published the "journal of handicapping". jim was a fine gentleman and a very creative thinker who returned to iowa in the late 80's, i believe. he mad several statements which i have never forgotten and have guided me throught 30+years of wagering. my point here is that he stated that 50% of the games we wager will be determined by luck and there is nothing that we can do will change that dynamic. we are going to win 25% by luck and we are going to lose 25% by luck !! it is what we do with the other 50% that will "separate the men from the boys".
i hope that these perspectives may help when you consider how difficult it is to consistently win at sports wagering. never underestimate the linemaker.
Candy, that's about right and I too have been around for 30yrs, made my first wager in Aug 1986. A big part of what I do is trust that my line is better than the oddsmaker, at least 57.14% of the time.
I will say this about my hockey, a rating of (0.00) would indicate a correct line. As for laying juice on the NHL plays, the juice on the losses will even out at (-110) on the losses. Yesterday I had 2 underdog losses..
Let's get the hot streak rolling on the next 50 plays.
Falcon
I will say this about my hockey, a rating of (0.00) would indicate a correct line. As for laying juice on the NHL plays, the juice on the losses will even out at (-110) on the losses. Yesterday I had 2 underdog losses..
Let's get the hot streak rolling on the next 50 plays.
Falcon
Sandman, sorry just now saw your question. Personally I would never lay -1.5 goals, even though SJ covered it today. However u could lay -1 goal and risk a push. I use the -1 line a lot in baseball.
My goal is to maintain a (-110) average on my losses.. Looks like a 1-1 split today. Back tomorrow.
Falcon
My goal is to maintain a (-110) average on my losses.. Looks like a 1-1 split today. Back tomorrow.
Falcon
