Brandon Lang
Saturday ...
50 Dime Villanova
20 Dime Connecticut
FREE - Over Michigan State/Connecticut (See daily video for your analysis)
50 Dime Villanova - Remember when I told you the Wildcats were going to take care of Duke, about a week and a half back? I compared the "chip on the shoulder" theory to Memphis, and told you Villanova could adopt the role the Tigers were supposed to have in the West Region, and here we are in the Final Four, with one of two remaining Big East teams.
And all due respect to Pitt and Louisville, but I wonder how the Selection Committee, TV analysts and so-called experts feel now, knowing Villanova never was mentioned with the 'elite' Big East teams - most notably the three No. 1 seeds - Pitt, Louisville and U Conn. The darlings of the Big East were the Syracuse Orangemen thanks to their incredible conference-tourney run. There was talk of West Virginia and Marquette too ... but maybe, just maybe, someone should have been talking about Jay Wright's troops.
After all, this is the same Wildcats team that beat Pitt during the regular season and was impressive in those back-to-back 100-point performances that resulted in blowout victories. Since the first-round scare against American U., we've seen that true, dominating Big East-style of play surface against UCLA, dominating the Bruins in every facet of the second-round affair. Then there was that swarming effort against Duke - my first 50-Dimer of the tournament - and that huge effort against Pittsburgh.
While 'Nova may be coming into this Final Four as a No. 3 seed out of its regional, believe me this is the Cinderella story you're looking for. It all makes sense. A Philly kid like Jay Wright, who was an assistant to Rollie Massimino and then followed him to UNLV in the same capacity. He went on to resurrect the Hofstra program, and is now on the verge of guiding his hometown Wildcats back to the National Championship ... believe me, this Philly kid is wearing the glass slipper to go with his Armani suits.
Wright will have his Wildcats fired up on defense, as nothing else matters tonight except shutting down Ty Lawson. Because without him, the Heels don't stand a chance against Nova. That's a fact. If he were still injured, this would be a near pick'em game. So what to do? Rotate Dwayne Anderson, Reggie Redding and Corey Stokes on Lawson in an effort to neutralize his offensive efforts.
We isolate on Lawson, and force Hansbrough to play on his own ... and I think he's overrated, so I don't need to get much into what I think about him.
The Wildcats have had a week to prepare for the Heels, and I am expecting the same defensive effort we saw against UCLA and Duke, and that means it'll be a huge advantage for us from the opening tip.
And with the defensive rebounds falling in our hands, you're going to see the 'Cats pushing the ball to the other end of the court, where we have Corey Stokes and Scottie Reynolds setting up the offense for those high-percentage shots, or to simply drain shots from beyond the arc.
Carolina has plenty of talent that will start, but remember this, Villanova will provide much better depth and will get consistent offense from its reserves - another added bonus.
This is too many points to give to Wright, as the dog price is a steal. Take the points and expect to see Villanova challenge for the outright.
20 Dime Connecticut - I know Michigan State was able to win a tempo game against Louisville last weekend, controlling the ball and clock while limiting the Cardinals' transition game; but the Spartans are facing a Connecticut squad that doesn't have an obvious weakness to exploit. Was it any surprise, really? The Huskies did the exact same thing back in February, rolling into Freedom Hall and beating Louisville, 68-51. Heck, UNLV did the same thing ... AT FREEDOM HALL. Big deal ... Michigan State beat Louisville, wow!!!
This is U Conn. From the Beast. The Big East. And we're talking about a Michigan State team that lost to Northwestern - in East Lansing. We're talking about a Michigan State team that lost to Penn State - in East Lansing. We're talking about a Michigan State team that was hammered by North Carolina, which is eerily similar to U Conn, as in they're both dominating freaks of nature.
Connecticut is a better team from a better conference. And we're virtually laying a bucket from beyond the arc, and a free throw. That's it. And I can live with losing that way, rather than taking a Michigan State team that simply does not have enough talent to match wits with the Huskies, who have a little more talent and who have been much more dominant this season. I'll lay the chalk in this one, as the Huskies are the value chalk today.