The Dollar Is Extremely Strong, Pushing Down the World

[Ricboff]

(weekly candles)got it 2 weeks ago, just remove the two candles to the far right. SHORT fuse on this for me, 1 ATR from the top of said candle. Short fuse cuase the monthly chart has no red flags , ...yet

+ve-- only about a 17% chance Powell raises in Nov ,

was such a beauty bearish candle on the weekly.................. getting severely oversold--gettin' atta dodge

................................................

notably :MCD, HSY, KO, CAG

exited, mcd, ko -buy to close. to hold cag/hsy longer let more time decay

the nutting emotional exaggeration of the potential 'dire' effect of weight loss drugs that led to XLP falling off a cliff did indeed present a buying opportunity



gdx lookin' pretty good, ......eh? ....

 

[Ricboff]

wow

GM initiates $10 billion buyback, boosts dividend and reinstates 2023 guidance after UAW strikes​

The Detroit automaker plans to increase its quarterly dividend next year by 33% to 12 cents per share; initiate an accelerated $10 billion share repurchase; and reinstate its 2023 guidance to include an estimated $1.1 billion in earning before interest and tax, or EBIT-adjusted, impact from roughly six weeks of U.S. labor strikes by the United Auto Workers union.

• Adjusted automotive free cash flow of $10.5 billion to $11.5 billion, compared to the previous outlook of $7 billion to $9 billion.

GM CEO Mary Barra in a statement said the company is finalizing a budget for next year that will “fully offset the incremental costs of our new labor agreements.



(for those unaware, CEO Mary Barra is on record saying GM will not be making any gas powered cars by 2035..less than a decade )

 

[Ricboff]

actually, just past a decade, haha.......big gap up for the iconic American auto company

 

[Ricboff]

Banks hold a shit load of TLT, sitting on MASSIVE paper losses. Call me crazy - the next sizable move on TLT is up . Im patiently waiting for a technical signal (higher time frame for damn surre!!) ...............no one wants this stuff fellas, lol


'The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF has plunged as much as 47% from its 2020 peak, making the collapse worse than the 1981 bond bear market and on par with some of the worst market crashes in history.
"It's the greatest bond bear market in history as stubborn prices and a resilient economy have propelled yields sharply higher," Bank of America said in a Wednesday note.'

1 DECADE monthly chart

look at the volume , red flag-smells of capitulation (that Oct candle will close soon)

'The first day of December began on a positive note after a “remarkable” month of November for the market, said Brian Madden, chief investment officer with First Avenue Investment Counsel.
December is historically positive as well, said Madden, though he isn’t expecting a repeat of November.

However, it was also a significant month for the bond market, he added.

“This was the second best month for bonds since the turn of the century,” he said.'

.................

lol, TLT filled the $92 gap in less than a month..VIOLENT rebound

 

[Ricboff]

uh oh .....the resilient US economy ..despite a remarkable rate rise in such a short period of time

U.S. labour market shows strength amid surge in payrolls gains​

U.S. job growth accelerated in November while the unemployment rate fell to 3.7 per cent, signs of underlying labour market strength that suggested financial market expectations of an interest rate cut early next year were probably premature.

The Labor Department’s closely-watched employment report on Friday, which showed annual wage steady last month, did not change views that the Federal Reserve’s rate hiking cycle was complete. The U.S. central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged next Wednesday. It has raised its policy rate by 525 basis points, to the current 5.25 per cent-5.50 per cent range, since March 2022.

“Those 100 basis points of rate cuts the market is talking about in 2024 will be just a fairy tale if the labour market does not rebalance further in the months ahead,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York. “Fed officials are not going to like this report.”

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 199,000 jobs last month after rising by an unrevised 150,000 in October, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Though employment growth was below the average monthly 240,000 over the past 12 months, the gains are well above the 100,000 jobs per month needed to keep up with growth in the working age population.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 180,000 jobs created. Employment was in part boosted by the return of automobile workers and actors after strikes.

Last month’s almost broad increase in employment was led by the health care sector, which added 77,000 jobs, most of which were in ambulatory services as well as at hospitals, nursing and residential care facilities. Government payrolls jumped by 49,000, boosted by local government hiring.

Manufacturing employment rose by 28,000 job, with motor vehicles and parts jobs rising by 30,000 as members of the United Auto Workers (UAW) union returned to work after striking against Detroit’s “Big Three” car makers.

Leisure and hospitality payrolls advanced 40,000, driven mostly by hiring at restaurants and bars.

Financial markets lowered their bets of a rate cut as soon as next March in the wake of the strong employment report. U.S. stocks opened lower. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices fell.

..........


Powell next week.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

cant see any dovish tone after today's data

 

[Bozzie]

uh oh .....the resilient US economy ..despite a remarkable rate rise in such a short period of time

U.S. labour market shows strength amid surge in payrolls gains​

U.S. job growth accelerated in November while the unemployment rate fell to 3.7 per cent, signs of underlying labour market strength that suggested financial market expectations of an interest rate cut early next year were probably premature.

The Labor Department’s closely-watched employment report on Friday, which showed annual wage steady last month, did not change views that the Federal Reserve’s rate hiking cycle was complete. The U.S. central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged next Wednesday. It has raised its policy rate by 525 basis points, to the current 5.25 per cent-5.50 per cent range, since March 2022.

“Those 100 basis points of rate cuts the market is talking about in 2024 will be just a fairy tale if the labour market does not rebalance further in the months ahead,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York. “Fed officials are not going to like this report.”

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 199,000 jobs last month after rising by an unrevised 150,000 in October, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Though employment growth was below the average monthly 240,000 over the past 12 months, the gains are well above the 100,000 jobs per month needed to keep up with growth in the working age population.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 180,000 jobs created. Employment was in part boosted by the return of automobile workers and actors after strikes.

Last month’s almost broad increase in employment was led by the health care sector, which added 77,000 jobs, most of which were in ambulatory services as well as at hospitals, nursing and residential care facilities. Government payrolls jumped by 49,000, boosted by local government hiring.

Manufacturing employment rose by 28,000 job, with motor vehicles and parts jobs rising by 30,000 as members of the United Auto Workers (UAW) union returned to work after striking against Detroit’s “Big Three” car makers.

Leisure and hospitality payrolls advanced 40,000, driven mostly by hiring at restaurants and bars.

Financial markets lowered their bets of a rate cut as soon as next March in the wake of the strong employment report. U.S. stocks opened lower. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices fell.

..........


Powell next week.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

cant see any dovish tone after today's data

Huge factor in this soft landing after several rate hikes....... "American crude oil production reached a fresh all-time high of 13.2mn barrels a day in September, according to figures released last week, more than any other country and accounting for about one in eight barrels of global output."

Russians and Saudis may see 70 oil.

 

[Ricboff]

pretty awesome given not an oil friendly president AND inflationary environment . NEVER underestimate American ingenuity

U.S. Record-Breaking Oil Output One More Blow to OPEC​

Record crude oil production in the United States is serving a fresh blow to oil bulls and OPEC, just as the cartel was trying to push benchmarks higher by adopting deeper production cuts.

The EIA reported last week that average daily production in September had remained unchanged from August when it hit the record-high rate of 13.24 million barrels. This is happening despite cost inflation and lower international oil prices. And U.S. shale drillers have no plans to drill less.

The situation is perhaps worryingly similar to 2014-2016 when oil prices took a dive, falling by 70% when the Saudi-led OPEC hit back at U.S. shale by boosting production to tank prices and sink as many U.S. producers as possible.

At the same time, however, the situation is markedly different in several ways. U.S. producers have consolidated and this has made many more resilient to price wars. At the same time, Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies are probably more risk-averse than they were back in 2014: that oil price crisis prompted Gulf governments to adopt austerity measures for probably the first time in their history. They did not like it.

One analyst has already suggested that the Saudis’ only move in the current situation is to open the taps and try to kill U.S. shale all over again. However, this is a sort of a nuclear option that would hurt Saudi Arabia and its OPEC friends as well. But they do have another option: keep cutting.

 

[Ricboff]

the straw that stirs the drink is up.............2 pm

 

[Ricboff]

look at that USD move ,......lets see how it plays out after he starts chatting

 

[Ricboff]

US Dollar Index Streaming Chart - Investing.com

In this section you'll find a streaming chart for the US Dollar Index.

www.investing.com

click 1 h , that's the hourly chart (candlestick )..look at that,lol. he hasnt spoken yet

 

[Ricboff]

'Fed holds rates steady, indicates three cuts coming in 2024'​

interest rate sensitive sectors that have been battered went euphoric with the news, specifically : utilities and reits

 

[Ricboff]

few charts following The Pivot (powell threw in the towel and the Saved the banks ...he aint crazy fellas........ ) ;

all weekly charts ;




the russell, IWM

trying to break a top that dates back to Aug 2022...she needed the end of rising rates


KRE (regional banks....remember these guys?))

reits

XLF (financials)

UUP (USD )

.......................


(quite a few sectors gettign significantly overextended, good time to sell calls on holdings imo)

 

[Ricboff]

gold is in her seasonality favor zone, see below:

View attachment 78330



GDX

1 decade monthly

View attachment 78331


clearly $27 ish a poweful zone of support. Look to write puts , Dec 29th $27 strike price early next week, wouldbe super sweet if the gap @ $27.10 ish is filled, fingers crossed. As of friday close ,those are paying an AROI of 19%

'clearly $27 ish a poweful zone of support. Look to write puts , Dec 29th $27 strike price early next week, wouldbe super sweet if the gap @ $27.10 ish is filled, fingers crossed. As of friday close ,those are paying an AROI of 19%'



easy peasy ..... . Married seasonality with the technicals (altho TA wasnt ideal) . Can b closed early , i'll hold for it to expire worthless

markets in crazy melt-up....Biden going to be signing SPY charts? lol

 

[Ricboff]

have been fiddling with fundamentals , haha ! next stop on the bus might be a HOME..with orchids....

sectors with the greatest # of value plays (intrinsic value lower than market price by more than 20%!):
-numero UNO- healthcare (Biden crushing the sector fellas?....why?...)
-real estate (reits-like utilities they r interest sensitive , ive posted puts on utilities -love the sector to revert to the mean)
-consumer cyclicals
-financials (Powel -DONT kill the banks, all comes crashing down if u do...)

XLV
(healthcare.......everyone ends up in the hospital ...'doc, can u help?')

decade MONTHLY

View attachment 77263



2 yr weekly

View attachment 77265


$120 CLEAR as sin level of support...lose that and call 911

'sectors with the greatest # of value plays (intrinsic value lower than market price by more than 20%!):
-numero UNO- healthcare (Biden crushing the sector fellas?....why?...)
-real estate (reits-like utilities they r interest sensitive , ive posted puts on utilities -love the sector to revert to the mean)
-consumer cyclicals
-financials (Powel -DONT kill the banks, all comes crashing down if u do...)'


VIOLENT move by healthcare .......


Moderna and Merck’s experimental cancer vaccine, when used in combination with Merck’s blockbuster therapy Keytruda, reduced the risk of death or relapse in patients with the most deadly form of skin cancer by half after roughly three years, according to midstage trial data released Thursday.

The vaccine could win regulatory approvals and launch in some countries as early as 2025, Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday.




Shares of Moderna jumped more than 10% in morning trading Thursday following the data release, while Merck’s stock dipped slightly.

The combination specifically slashed the risk of death or recurrence of the cancer, known as melanoma, by 49% in patients in later stages of the disease compared to those who received Keytruda alone after three years. The cancer vaccine in combination with Keytruda also reduced the risk of melanoma spreading to other parts of the body by 62%.


.............mRNA tech.............


XLV (healthcare) weekly

aalllllllllllllllll the way to the top of the box ...imo, this move aint stable---stale green light ........BUT........... can she break?!?!

 

[carlspackler]

I'm just glad that MMT tells us that debt doesn't matter anymore.

U.S. National debt tops $34 TRILLION for the first time.

MSN

 

[Ricboff]

can't make that shit up

its like we all are in living in La La land.

you liking your Rangers this year?....shit looks wide open to me. Florida will a tough team to knock off , damn

 

[carlspackler]

I was liking them until the third period last night. Just gotta stay healthy until the second season. Sucks that we lost Chytil. Quick is looking good for an old man.

can't make that shit up

its like we all are in living in La La land.

you liking your Rangers this year?....shit looks wide open to me. Florida will a tough team to knock off , damn

 

[Ricboff]

i would take Quick in a heartbeat for The Leafs , lol. The meltdown by Samsonov, i have , candidly, never seen in my lifetime. Goaltenders r a different breed

the way i look at :

East : Florida -best team
(Rangers have an elite goalie, so cant say no).

West - THE Defending Stanley Champions didnt damage that lineup , that 6 dee is so solid
wouldnt want to face Edmonton in the 1st round
not convinced with Vcr/Winn/LA/Dall

but that fuckin Winn team just keeps winning

 

[Ricboff]

just realized the Rangers brought up Othmann. Cool fun fact; in his draft yr to the OHL , played on a stacked incredible team that was threatening to go undefeated including tournament play! (U15 AAA). THREE of the players on that team were drafted in the top 4 at the 2019 OHL draft, 4 in the top 10! haha unheard of: S Wright (Sea), Othmann (NYR), Clarke (LAK), L Arsnby (Flor). Wright, Othmann and Clarke all played together at the World Jr Canadian Team, also unheard of him . That Don MIlls Flyers team ended up 80-2. So crazy, saw them win The Holiday Classic . At the NHL draft , the big 3 were all drafted in the 1st round : Wright drafted 4th overall, Othmann 16th, Clarke 8th

must have been fun coaching that Don MIlls Flyers team!! ha!!

 

[carlspackler]

Yea, a lot of buzz among the fan base. Hopefully we see him tonight against the Hawks. I trust Laviolette will ease him into league like has with our other impressive rookie, Cuylie.