Some background...lol:
I handicapped the NFL successfully for years here on therx, using a spreadsheet with my own formulas to calculate match ups and set my own lines. I had a service for a couple years, having one decent NFL year, and one break even (or down a unit or two) year. I started handicapping NCAAF during one of my tout years, and didn't do well, posting a solid losing season at my first go at it, lol. The 2nd year I turned it around and posted a solid winning year here at therx: +41.74 units (+49.85 average size bets), while beating the closing lines by a total of 343.5 points on posted plays. Because I create my own lines I attack the early lines, always beating the closing market. Right now there are still not a ton of games on the books from which to set really accurate lines (discarding all games against the smaller division teams), so the market won't always agree with me, but later in the season and in the bowls I'll rarely be on the wrong side of a line move.
I didn't cap last season, focusing on a different business venture, but the siren call of football was too strong this year, so I jumped back in, furiously getting ready to set lines this past week. I did have some lines set by Saturday morning, and the big value plays did really well (on the sides - totals were still a small winner but had some wayyyy off results, lol). Sides are usually my bread and butter, being softer lines historically.
Anyway, I've always had a good time here at therx (15 or so years, really), and will hopefully be glad to rededicate some time to football!
To be a winner you have to bet lines that have value. To know if you are truly recognizing line value you have to have demonstrated over a large sample of games that your handicapping methods do indeed recognize line value. If you aren't sure, you can follow someone who has demonstrated the ability to handicap line value. Never wager too much on any one game. A professional generally bets in the range of 1% of his bankroll on any given play. The idea is to let your small advantages accumulate a winning percentage of plays over a large number of plays, reducing the risk of a bad run seriously depleting your bankroll. If you are a recreational gambler with a small bankroll, well, then there's nothing wrong with putting your entire bankroll on the line each week betting up to 10% of your roll on a play.
I didn't post anything here last week, as I was scrambling to generate some lines right up until Saturday morning kickoffs, and wanted a Saturday to see how my lines fared using stats from this season exclusively. My biggest value lines did really well with Marshall, Miss. St., VT, Buffalo, Akron, Army, Auburn, New Mexico, Kent, Georgia State, UAB, Kansas State, FIU, Virginia, Cal, Kentucky and Utah State being winners. The over valued losers were Houston, UCLA, Georgia Southern, USC, Texas State, NC St., and Eastern Carolina. For the most part, you can see that the winners were underdogs, with a fair number of them winning outright. The losers were mostly double digit favorites. I think the lesson here is that dominance can be a lot harder to gauge than parity from a small number of games.
Thanks, alki! Too much fun to stay away. 
Washington State @ Stanford
WSU doesn't run the ball well, and they don't rate to have much success there against a solid STAN run defense. Their run game has been improving, though, and is no longer completely dead in the water like it was in their first two games against Rutgers and Nevada. What they like to do, clearly, is pass the ball, which they do three times as often as they run it. QB Connor Halliday has improved every year and in this, his senior year, has stepped it up at an even higher rate. STAN has played only one team with an above average passing game, USC -- a game which STAN lost. WSU tends to play to the level of their competition, and they laid a big egg against NEV earlier this year. Facing a superior opponent in STAN, though, means they should step it up, hopefully like they did against ORE.
STAN runs the ball slightly more than they pass it, but they don't have a match up advantage with the run in this game. STAN has had a very average run offense this year, while WSU's run defense has been fairly consistent -- by the numbers this looks like an even match up. WSU's pass defense has been up and down, but considering they've faced a very tough line up of YPP teams they don't rate that poorly, just a little below average. Bad weather last week aside, STAN's passing game has fallen back to average after having a good game in the loss to USC.
Against conference opponents STAN has been involved in close games so far this year. Even if WSU is a step down in quality, STAN has no clear match up advantages and WSU's passing game is always a threat for the back door cover if it comes down to it.
Play Washington State +18 (good at any line)
Washington State @ Stanford
WSU doesn't run the ball well, and they don't rate to have much success there against a solid STAN run defense. Their run game has been improving, though, and is no longer completely dead in the water like it was in their first two games against Rutgers and Nevada. What they like to do, clearly, is pass the ball, which they do three times as often as they run it. QB Connor Halliday has improved every year and in this, his senior year, has stepped it up at an even higher rate. STAN has played only one team with an above average passing game, USC -- a game which STAN lost. WSU tends to play to the level of their competition, and they laid a big egg against NEV earlier this year. Facing a superior opponent in STAN, though, means they should step it up, hopefully like they did against ORE.
STAN runs the ball slightly more than they pass it, but they don't have a match up advantage with the run in this game. STAN has had a very average run offense this year, while WSU's run defense has been fairly consistent -- by the numbers this looks like an even match up. WSU's pass defense has been up and down, but considering they've faced a very tough line up of YPP teams they don't rate that poorly, just a little below average. Bad weather last week aside, STAN's passing game has fallen back to average after having a good game in the loss to USC.
Against conference opponents STAN has been involved in close games so far this year. Even if WSU is a step down in quality, STAN has no clear match up advantages and WSU's passing game is always a threat for the back door cover if it comes down to it.
Play Washington State +18 (good at any line)
Thanks, Indy, always glad to see you stopping by!
New Mexico vs. San Diego St.
This line is currently down because of an injury to SDST's QB, but I got a play in while the line was still up on Sunday.
UNM had been cruising along with a 1-2 record against D1 schools before playing @ UTSA last week. Beneath that losing record, though, lurked one of the best YPC teams in the country. UNM had amassed these large yards per carry stats against a really soft line up of teams, however. UTSA would be, by far, the toughest run defense they'd faced...and they still shredded them. As a big dog they easily won outright, 21-9. That victory had a lot to do with UTSA's struggling offense, as UNM still has one of the worst defenses in the country.
SDSU has a decent run defense, but this will be its biggest test so far. SDSU has a poor pass defense, but that plays almost no part against a team that only passes the ball eleven times a game. SDSU has had a poor passing game this year, and it fared even worse with an injury to their starting QB who is now "?" for this game. SDSU has been decent running the ball, and no doubt the potential is there for them to have a break out game on the ground versus a terrible UNM defense. All four of SDSU's D1 games have been on the road this year, and this one a back to back job. I see only one team getting up for this game -- UNM. By the way, both of these teams play at an extremely deliberate pace, there's a good chance I'll be taking the Under here. The UNM @ UTSA total was the lowest one on the board my spreadsheet projected last week.
Play University of New Mexico +5.5 (good at any line -- wrong team favored!)
New Mexico vs. San Diego St.
This line is currently down because of an injury to SDST's QB, but I got a play in while the line was still up on Sunday.
UNM had been cruising along with a 1-2 record against D1 schools before playing @ UTSA last week. Beneath that losing record, though, lurked one of the best YPC teams in the country. UNM had amassed these large yards per carry stats against a really soft line up of teams, however. UTSA would be, by far, the toughest run defense they'd faced...and they still shredded them. As a big dog they easily won outright, 21-9. That victory had a lot to do with UTSA's struggling offense, as UNM still has one of the worst defenses in the country.
SDSU has a decent run defense, but this will be its biggest test so far. SDSU has a poor pass defense, but that plays almost no part against a team that only passes the ball eleven times a game. SDSU has had a poor passing game this year, and it fared even worse with an injury to their starting QB who is now "?" for this game. SDSU has been decent running the ball, and no doubt the potential is there for them to have a break out game on the ground versus a terrible UNM defense. All four of SDSU's D1 games have been on the road this year, and this one a back to back job. I see only one team getting up for this game -- UNM. By the way, both of these teams play at an extremely deliberate pace, there's a good chance I'll be taking the Under here. The UNM @ UTSA total was the lowest one on the board my spreadsheet projected last week.
Play University of New Mexico +5.5 (good at any line -- wrong team favored!)
