The Cruncher's NCAA Week #7 Plays

[thecruncher]

Louisville @ Clemson

Both teams defenses are playing very well this year, making points a premium and of more value to the team receiving them. Neither team should find any consistency running the ball, so this game will come down to how well Clemson QB Deshaun Watson handles the toughest pass defense he's faced this year. The same goes for LOU's pass defense, as this will be the best pass offense they've faced this year. So far, the correlation between Clemson's pass offense versus the defenses they've faced has been very high, which lends me to believe that after two good games versus two very bad pass defenses they won't find the going so easy this week against LOU. It is highly likely I'll be taking the Under in this game when the line comes out, as well.

Play Louisville +13 (good to +10.5) for 3/5 Unit

 

[thecruncher]

Georgia @ Missouri

The most telling correlation I'm seeing in this match up is that of MIZZ' run defense, where they've had shut down power versus below average run offenses, but have given up almost 5ypc versus above average run offenses (while still being a yard below what those offenses have usually gained). UGA has one of the best run offenses in the country, so they rate to have a pretty solid day on the ground here. UGA also has a solid passing game, which prevents defenses from cheating too much against the run. MIZZ has a solid defense, but they haven't played anyone of UGA's caliber.

MIZZ has a below average pass offense this year, which could give UGA, with their decent pass defense, a chance to cheat against the run a little, neutralizing any offensive consistency for MIZZ. A good run game is a key to winning on the road, and I think UGA handily gets it done here.

Play Georgia -1.5 (-125) good on any number up to 7, really

 

[MotorMouth]

Been reading your posts for years, nice insights.

 

[thecruncher]

Thanks, MM.

Wyoming @ Hawaii

Look, it's not like it's impossible for a main land team to travel to Hawaii and win a football game. It happens, I checked. Heck, Hawaii only won a single game last year, in their final week at home versus Army. Most of Hawaii's losses there last year were competitive, but they were still losses, and now they're laying chalk to a feisty Wyoming squad in the battle for the Paniolo trophy.

Wyoming has had a pretty tough schedule so far, with their two losses coming against then ranked top 10 teams. Wyoming travelled to Michigan State a couple weeks ago and scored 14 points (on full field drives) in the first half, something Nebraska didn't manage to do against MSU until the 4th quarter last week. Sure, Wyoming got smoked in that game, but the take away is that the are capable of moving the ball against very good defenses.

Wyoming's run game has been slowly improving, while their passing game has been consistently good, averaging 7 or more YPP in every game this year. Hawaii has a poor pass defense, making this the most important mismatch of the game. Wyoming will need to have success in the air, because Hawaii's run defense has been pretty decent so far this year.

Wyoming's run defense had a great opener against Air Force, but has been pretty poor since then, but keep in mind two of those games were against Oregon and MSU. Still, they let FAU average 0.8 YPC more than they usually gain, so Hawaii's run oriented offense will live or die on the ground this week, as their passing game is already dead and just gets kicked around lifelessly every week, averaging just 4.3 YPP against D1 schools. Hawaii's run isn't that good though, either, having just one above average game versus Washington. Against Rice they only managed 3.2 YPC and 14 points...yeah, that defensive juggernaut Rice, lol.

Why Hawaii is favored in this game, as far as I can tell:
#1 It took OT for Wyoming to beat Hawaii late last season in Laramie.
#2 Hawaii only lost by a point to Washington early this season (Washington has shown almost nothing this season, really.)
#3 Hawaii beat Northern Iowa earlier this year...well, Northern Iowa is not a bad MVFC team, they almost beat regular Iowa this year.
#4 It's Hawaii, where college aged males are supposed to be heavily distracted, and end up losing games they're supposed to win.

I guess we'll find out if this game is a numbers trap, as the numbers clearly favor Wyoming with their much tougher schedule. The points are a bonus, though I'll doubt they'll be necessary.

1 Unit Play Wyoming +4

 

[thecruncher]

Added another Unit on Syracuse +24, as the number has gone up quite a bit since the original play. I've got to put a little thought into analyzing which numbers might move against the pure data, as I can see why a couple have moved against me this week. Other than that, have picked up a decent amount of value on several plays overnight.

 

[Jupiter333]

Love the write-ups NC. I have a system play on the Cowboys.....and I suppose if we auto-faded the Rainbow Warriors and the Running Rebels each week, we'd have the mansion, all the chicks and the Jag and the Bentley in the front driveway.

Good fortune for you this week and beyond.

 

[thecruncher]

Thx, Jup!

For some reason the injury to Syracuse QB Hunt wasn't showing up in my early feeds, and I wasn't aware of his status until sdf commented in another post with it. Nowwwww all the line movement heading FSU's way makes some sense. I'm not used to lines moving that far away from mine, lol. Okay, there is still value on SYR +24. SYR has had a very good run game this year (though QB Hunt was an integral part of that). The passing game is going to be suspect now with an inexperienced Austin Wilson taking over at QB. Before that the pass game had been above average. FSU hasn't been dominant on defense this year. Sure, they held Wake down, but Wake has a horrible offense. FSU doesn't run the ball particularly well, they rely on Winston and the passing game. The SYR pass defense has been up and down, but have only averaged giving up 167 pass yards per game. FSU will more than likely get more pass yards against SYR than any other team so far this year, but will it be enough to cover such a big number on the road without a dominating defense? I don't think so. SYR has been playing better offense than their scoring indicates. Their total yards gained averages 30 points (using all D1 games as the average), but they've only averaged scoring 20.25 points. What does it mean? Their offense is not as bad as their final scores indicate. Red zone scoring/defense is mostly a myth in that it is not a predictable stat based on past performances.

 

[thecruncher]

FIU @ UTSA

UTSA is on my fade list until something drastic changes on the field for them. There's still healthy line value betting against them in spite of their convincing loss to New Mexico at home last week. UTSA started off the year with what appeared to be a solid win against Houston. Houston is clearly a sub-par team this year with one of the worst pass offenses in the country. UTSA won the turnover battle 6-1 in that game.

UTSA has one of the worst run games in football, and their passing game is just average. FIU matches up really well as they've had a solid pass defense (with a decent run defense as well).

FIU will need to go to the pass more than they're accustomed to in this game, as it's through the air that you want to attack UTSA. UTSA's run defense has been decent and ranks fairly high on my rescored stats, but that's mostly due to the Houston game. So even if FIU stays a little more run oriented like they're used to, there's a chance to move the ball (though they've been poor at running the ball, they've been sticking with it).

Laying 13 points with a such a bad offense is a tall order, especially against an FIU team with only one glaring weakness (running the ball). If FIU can just game plan and pass the ball a little more frequently, they stand a good chance of handing UTSA another loss as a double digit home favorite.

Play FIU +13.5 (any number good, with a little ML sprinkled in)

 

[thecruncher]

And here we go...

1 Unit: BUFF @ EMU Under 58.5

 

[thecruncher]

1 Unit: WVU @ TTU Over 73

 

[tbird]

Great work crunch glad to c u back

 

[thecruncher]

3/5 Unit: TCU @ BAY Over 67

 

[thecruncher]

1 Unit: LOU @ CLEM Under 50.5

 

[thecruncher]

1 Unit: ILL @ WIS Over 55

 

[thecruncher]

1 unit: Fiu @ utsa under 45

 

[thecruncher]

1 Unit: ODU @ UTEP Under 70.5

 

[thecruncher]

3/5 Unit: CSU @ NEV Over 60.5

 

[thecruncher]

3/5 Unit: TEX @ OKLA Over 46.5

 

[thecruncher]

3/5 Unit: IDHO @ GASO Under 66.5

 

[thecruncher]

CAL vs. WASH

WASH is about as poor of a 4-1 major conference team as they come. They've gone to the 4th quarter with one score leads or less against Hawaii, Eastern Washington and Georgia State this year, with the latter two of those games being at home. Speaking of home, I'm not sure WASH remembers what the road is like, not having played there since that opening week 1 point squeaker against the "Mighty" Rainbow Warriors of Hawaii. They were tied with STAN deep into the 4th quarter, but that was a game in which they were outgained 179 to 364 total yards, more than doubled up, so the score is not real reflective of the game.

CAL is also very close to being undefeated, and they've done it against a much tougher schedule. CAL is obviously a surprise team this year, coming off a 2013 campaign that saw them winless, and not even competitive, against all of their D1 opponents. Their only win was a 7 pointer against Portland State, lol.

This year QB Goff has shown some astounding progress. He wasn't horrible in all of those defeats last year, honestly, posting a 123.2 rating. WASH has an okay defense, the only reason for their winning record so far.

Defensively CAL is actually decent against the run, despite some of those obviously high scoring games they've been involved in. Their pass defense? Not so hot, surrendering 734 yards in the air against WSU last week. 734! That's got to be some kind of record, right? They've also given up big yards in the air to ARIZ and COLO. Still, all of those teams, including COLO, have a better passing offense than WASH. WASH has the weakest offense CAL has played this year, I'll be surprised if they're even close to keeping up with The Golden Bears in this contest.

Play CAL (any number)