The cnotes college football 2020-2021 season news,trends, picks !

[CNOTES]

College Football Odds Week 16: Opening Lines and Sharp Money
Patrick Everson


Quarterback Ian Book and Notre Dame look to beat Clemson for the second time this season when the two teams meet Saturday in the ACC title game. But with Trevor Lawrence healthy, Clemson is -9.5.


College football odds for Week 16 are up and drawing dollars, with conference championship games dotting the schedule. Clemson gets a shot at revenge against Notre Dame in the ACC title tilt, while COVID issues forced Washington out of, and Oregon into, the Pac-12 finale against USC.


FanDuel Sportsbook provided insights on college football Week 16 opening lines, early line movement, sharp money and public betting for this week's matchups.


UAB at (21) Marshall Odds
Opening line
Marshall -5.5, Over/Under 41.5


Why the line moved
FanDuel opened the Thundering Herd 5.5-point home favorites in the Conference USA championship game, and the number is still Marshall -5.5 Monday night. Marshall is taking 86 percent of early tickets and 74 percent of early money. The total bounced from 41.5 to 42.5 and back to 41.5, but FanDuel's betting splits aren't yet available.


Ball State vs Buffalo Odds
Opening line
Buffalo -11.5, Over/Under 66.5


Why the line moved
Buffalo is already up two points Monday night at Fanduel, sitting at -13.5 for the Mid-American Conference title game at Detroit's Ford Field. The Bulls are drawing 86 percent of tickets and 97 percent of money. The total is steady at 66.5, though practically all the tickets and dollars through Monday night are on the Over.


(23) Oregon at (13) USC Odds
Opening line
Southern Cal -3.5, Over/Under 62.5


Why the line moved
Oregon is a substitute invitee to Friday night's Pac-12 championship game, after Washington had to withdraw Monday due to COVID issues within the program. Host USC opened -3.5 and remains there late Monday evening on some interesting early betting splits: 78 percent of tickets are on the Trojans, while 79 percent of money is on the Ducks.


The total is down a point to 61.5, though the early splits don't reflect that, with 87 percent of tickets and pretty much every dollar on the Over.


(14) Northwestern vs (4) Ohio State Odds
Opening line
Ohio State -20.5, Over/Under 58.5


Why the line moved
FanDuel posted the Big Ten title game on Thursday, and it's bounced around a bit since then. Ohio State first moved to -21.5, then dipped to -19.5, and on Monday night, this line is back to the opener of -20.5. The Buckeyes are attracting 78 percent of early tickets and 89 percent of early dollars on the spread.


The total first ticked up to 59.5, then dialed down to 57.5, though tickets are 3/1 and money 2/1 on the Over for this neutral-site game at Indianapolis' Lucas Oil Stadium.


(10) Oklahoma vs (6) Iowa State Odds
Opening line
Iowa State +4.5, Over/Under 59.5


Why the line moved
Oklahoma gets a shot at revenge in the Big 12 title game, having lost at Iowa State 37-30 on Oct. 3. FanDuel opened the Sooners -4.5 for the rematch, taking place Saturday at AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys. The line jumped to -6.5, then receded to -5.5, and as of Monday night, 53 percent of tickets are on Iowa State and 60 percent of money is on Oklahoma.


The total initially dipped two points to 57.5, and it's at 58.5 Monday night, with 88 percent of tickets/96 percent of cash on the Over.


(19) Louisiana at (12) Coastal Carolina Odds
Opening line
Coastal Carolina -3.5, Over/Under 53.5


Why the line moved
Coastal Carolina opened -3.5 at FanDuel for the Sun Belt championship game and stuck at that number through Monday night, with the exception of 15 minutes Sunday at -4.5. Tickets and money are running 9/1-plus on the host Chanticleers. The total is up a point to 54.5, with practically all the early tickets and money on the Over.


(3) Clemson vs (2) Notre Dame Odds
Opening line
Notre Dame +7.5, Over/Under 61.5


Why the line moved
On Nov. 7, Notre Dame beat visiting Clemson 47-40 in overtime, but the Tigers didn't have star quarterback Trevor Lawrence, due to COVID. Lawrence is good to go for a neutral-site game in Charlotte, N.C., and Clemson rose up to -10.5 from a -7.5 opener at FanDuel and is currently -9.5. However, the Fighting Irish are attracting 69 percent of spread bets and 59 percent of spread money through Monday night.


The total fell from 61.5 to 60.5, though the Over is taking 85 percent of tickets and 78 percent of money.


(23) Tulsa at (9) Cincinnati Odds
Opening line
Cincinnati -14.5, Over/Under 46.5


Why the line moved
Host Cincinnati opened -14.5 in the American Athletic Conference title game, initially fell to -13.5, rose to -15.5 and is back at the opener of -14.5 Monday night at FanDuel. It's two-way action with a lean toward the Bearcats, who are landing 55 percent of tickets and 53 percent of cash through Monday night.


The total went from 46.5 to 47.5 and back to 46.5, though the ticket count is beyond 6/1 and money 5/1 on the Over.


(1) Alabama vs (7) Florida Odds
Opening line
Alabama -13.5, Over/Under 71.5


Why the line moved
A lot of the air went out of the balloon for the SEC championship game when Florida, a 23-point home chalk against LSU last weekend, lost outright 37-34. But the Gators can certainly give the College Football Playoff committee a headache with an upset of Alabama in Saturday's contest in Atlanta.


The Crimson Tide initially ticked up to -14 at FanDuel, dipped to -12.5, then rocketed up to -17.5, where the line is Monday night. However, FanDuel doesn't yet have betting splits available. The hefty total opened at 71.5, got to 74.5 and is 73.5 late Monday night.


Boise State vs (24) San Jose State Odds
Opening line
San Jose State +7.5, Over/Under 54.5


Why the line moved
San Jose State is the home team for the Mountain West Conference championship game, but the game will be at a neutral site, because local COVID regulations won't allow the game to be played in San Jose, Calif. Rather, the game will be at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas.


Boise State is down a point to -6.5 at FanDuel, where through Monday night, San Jose State is drawing 51 percent of bets and 57 percent of dollar on the spread. The total is stable at 54.5 on what must be light early action, as practically all the tickets and dollars are on the Over.

 

[CNOTES]

Friday, Dec. 18


UAB at Marshall (CBSSN, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Conference USA Title Game
John C Edwards Stadium, Huntington, West Virginia
After recent overachieving vs. the line, UAB tailed off in 2020, just 2-6 vs. spread
Blazers also no covers in their last five


Tech Edge: Slight to Marshall, based on recent trends.


Ball State at Buffalo (ESPN, 7:30 p.m. ET)
MAC Championship
Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
Buffalo covered 4 of 5 while recording an unbeaten 5-0 SU mark this season
Upping head coach Lance Leipold’s spread mark to 30-13-3 the last three+ seasons


Tech Edge: Buffalo, based on team trends.


Oregon at USC (FOX, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Pac-12 Championship
L.A. Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, California
Ducks no covers last three in 2020
USC 3-0 last three games vs. the spread
Trojans “under” 4-1 this season


Tech Edge: Slight to USC and “under,” based on recent team and “totals” trends


Nebraska at Rutgers (Big Ten, 4:00 p.m. ET)
Scarlet Knights an improved 5-3 vs. line this season in head coach Greg Schiano debut.
Huskers 6-13-1 vs. line for Frost since last season


Tech Edge: Rutgers, based on team trends.

 

[CNOTES]

UAB at (21) Marshall Odds
Opening line
Marshall -5.5, Over/Under 41.5


Why the line moved
FanDuel opened the Thundering Herd 5.5-point home favorites in the Conference USA championship game, and the number is still Marshall -5.5 Monday night. Marshall is taking 86 percent of early tickets and 74 percent of early money. The total bounced from 41.5 to 42.5 and back to 41.5, but FanDuel's betting splits aren't yet available.


Ball State vs Buffalo Odds
Opening line
Buffalo -11.5, Over/Under 66.5


Why the line moved
Buffalo is already up two points Monday night at Fanduel, sitting at -13.5 for the Mid-American Conference title game at Detroit's Ford Field. The Bulls are drawing 86 percent of tickets and 97 percent of money. The total is steady at 66.5, though practically all the tickets and dollars through Monday night are on the Over.


(23) Oregon at (13) USC Odds
Opening line
Southern Cal -3.5, Over/Under 62.5


Why the line moved
Oregon is a substitute invitee to Friday night's Pac-12 championship game, after Washington had to withdraw Monday due to COVID issues within the program. Host USC opened -3.5 and remains there late Monday evening on some interesting early betting splits: 78 percent of tickets are on the Trojans, while 79 percent of money is on the Ducks.


The total is down a point to 61.5, though the early splits don't reflect that, with 87 percent of tickets and pretty much every dollar on the Over.

 

[CNOTES]

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 18


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


UAB at MRSH 07:00 PM
MRSH -4.5
U 42.5

NEB at RUTG 07:30 PM
RUTG +7.0
O 54.0


BALL at BUFF 07:30 PM
BUFF -13.5 *****
U 67.5


ORE at USC 08:00 PM
USC -3.0
O 63.0

 

[CNOTES]

Friday’s 6-pack
Biggest contracts in the NBA:
— Stephen Curry, $201M, five years
— Paul George, $226M, five years
— James Harden, $228M, six years
— Russell Westbrook, $233M, six years
— Giannis Antetokounmpo, $255.6M, six years
— Damian Lillard, $257M, six years


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 309,344
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.


Quote of the Day
“‘If Iowa State were to win the championship game, they would have won six straight games … the same number that Ohio State has played the entire season.’’
Big X commish Bob Bowlsby


Friday’s quiz
Where did Aaron Rodgers play his college football?


Thursday’s quiz
Green Bay beat the Chiefs 35-10 in the first Super Bowl.


Wednesday’s quiz
Oklahoma City Thunder were the Seattle SuperSonics, before moving to Oklahoma.


***************************


Friday’s Den: Random stuff with weekend here……..


13) LA Chargers 30, Las Vegas 27 OT
— Chargers won last two games, both on last play of the game.
— Herbert threw for 314 yards, two TD’s, and scored game-winning TD.
— Chargers converted 7-12 third down plays.
— Bolts had ball nine times; scored four TD’s, tried three FG’s.


— Carr hurt his leg in first half; backup Mariota threw for 226 yards, ran for 88 more.
— Las Vegas lost four of last five games, giving up 36 ppg.
— Last four games, Las Vegas allowed 19 TD’s on 49 drives.
— Over is 11-3 in Raider games this season.


12) Kansas 58, Texas Tech 57:
— High-quality game between top 10 teams.
— Kansas was 14-15 on foul line, Tech 11-18.
— Tech led by 7 with 8:57 left.


11) Saint Louis 80, NC State 69:
— Billikens are probably best team in A-14.
— State led by 10 just before halftime.
— Billikens won despite turning ball over 21 times (-13).


10) Seton Hall 70, Marquette 63:
— Pirates have played schedule #38; they’re 2-0 in Big East.
— Marquette lost three of five top 100 games.


9) Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 5-year, $228M contract extension works out to $556,585 a game, whether he plays or not.


8) New Jersey Giants’ offensive coordinator Jason Garrett tested positive for COVID, so he won’t be at the Sunday night game with Cleveland. Calling plays in his place will be Freddie Kitchens, the tight end coach, who was Cleveland’s head coach last year.


7) One of America’s best actors turns 84 next week; Hector Elizondo has 155 acting credits on IMDB.com. He’s been all over the place, with roles in these movies:


— Beaches, American Gigolo, Runaway Bride
— Pretty Woman, New Year’s Eve, Necessary Roughness, Frankie & Johnny


He also guested on his share of TV shows, before he made it in the movies:


— West Wing, Without a Trace, Columbo, Kojak
— Hill Street Blues, The Equalizer, Matlock, Rockford Files


Happy birthday!!!


6) Teams are 2-9 ATS this season, the week after playing the Chiefs.


5) When Kansas State won at Iowa State Tuesday, they started three freshmen; it was the first time they had ever done that in conference play.


4) College basketball teams playing some of the fastest tempos:
— Eastern Kentucky, Citadel, Arizona State, Memphis, Gonzaga


3) College basketball teams with the most experience:
— Eastern Illinois, Cal-Bakersfield, Detroit, Georgia Tech, Missouri


2) College basketball teams who take highest %age of their shots as 3’s:
— Wofford, Monmouth, UNLV, Oral Roberts, St Joe’s, Northern Iowa


1) It snowed so much here Thursday, I couldn’t open the front door to my house, and I barely got out the back door. Over two feet of snow, and winter doesn’t start until Monday. Awesome.

 

[CNOTES]

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


12/18/2020 2-5-1 31.25% -1750
12/12/2020 11-11-1 50.00% -550 Detail
12/11/2020 6-0-0 100.00% +3000 Detail
12/10/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/06/2020 2-2-0 100.00% -1.00 Detail
12/05/2020 29-21-0 58.00% +29.50 Detail
12/03/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +9.50 Detail


Totals...........54-43-2.....55.67%....+33.50

 

[CNOTES]

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 19


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


NW at OSU 12:00 PM
NW +18.0
U 56.0


TAM at TENN 12:00 PM
TAM -13.5
U 51.0

OKLA at ISU 12:00 PM
ISU +6.0
O 58.5


WSU at UTAH 01:30 PM
WSU +10.5
U 55.5


AFA at ARMY 03:00 PM
ARMY +2.5
U 38.0


MISS at LSU 03:30 PM
LSU +1.0
U 74.0


MIZZ at MSST 03:30 PM
MIZZ -1.0
U 49.5

MINN at WIS 04:00 PM
WIS -12.5
U 46.5


CLEM at ND 04:00 PM
ND +10.0
O 59.5

BSU at SJSU 04:15 PM
SJSU +6.5
O 56.5


ILL at PSU 05:30 PM
PSU -15.5
U 53.0


STAN at UCLA 07:00 PM
UCLA -6.5
U 59.0


TLSA at CIN 08:00 PM
CIN -14.0
O 44.5


ALA at FLA 08:00 PM
ALA -17.0
O 74.0


ASU at ORST 10:30 PM
ORST +7.0
O 54.5

 

[CNOTES]

Monday’s 6-pack
Interesting Week 16 NFL spreads:
— Minnesota @ New Orleans (-7.5)
— Tampa Bay (-8) @ Detroit
— San Francisco @ Arizona (-3.5)
— Miami (-2.5) @ Las Vegas
— Denver @ LA Chargers (-3)
— Cleveland (-10) @ NJ Jets


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 316,013
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.


Quote of the Day
“This is one of those disappointing wins the way that we played in the second half. So I have a sour taste in my mouth how we played in the second half. We’ve got to get back to the drawing board. That kind of football is not going to beat a lot of teams.”
Aaron Rodgers


Monday’s quiz
When was the last time an NFL team made the playoffs with a losing record?


Sunday’s quiz
Florida State was the last football team other than Clemson to win the ACC title, in 2014.


Saturday’s quiz
Alvin Gentry was coach of the Phoenix Suns last time they made the playoffs, in 2010.


*****************************


Monday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Sunday


Indianapolis 27, Texans 20:
— WR Coutee fumbled on Colts’ 1-yard line in last minute.
— Texans in red zone: 4 drives, 13 points. Indy: 4 drives, 24 points.
— Houston is 0-9 this year when they score fewer than 27 points.
— Texans’ last five drives: 50 plays, 363 yards, 2 TDs, 2 FGs, one fumble.


— Colts won seven of their last nine games overall.
— Indy/Tennessee are tied for first in AFC South.
— Indianapolis won seven of last nine series games.
— Last five games, Colts outscored opponents 92-33 in 2nd half.


Tennessee 46, Lions 25:
— Lions are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games.
— Detroit allowed 27+ points in seven of its last eight games.
— Detroit scored 27.0 ppg the last four weeks.
— Six of last eight Lion games went over the total.


— Titans converted nine of 11 third down plays.
— Tennessee won four of last five games, is tied for first in AFC South.
— First three drives: 21 plays, 243 yards, three TD’s.
— Last three drives: 25 plays, 160 yards, three TD’s.


Buccaneers 31, Atlanta 27
— Buccaneers trailed this game 17-0 at halftime.
— Bucs’ first three drives in third quarter: 22 plays, 231 yards, three TD’s.
— Last five games, Bucs converted 29-60 third down plays.
— Bucs won last four road games, scoring 37.0 ppg.


— Falcons lost four of their last five games.
— Atlanta lost six of its eight home games.
— Atlanta led seven of its last nine games at halftime.
— Falcons’ last five drives: 19 plays, 33 yards, 3 points.


Miami 22, Patriots 12:
— New England misses playoffs for first time since 2008.
— Last two Patriot games: no TD’s, five FG’s on 19 drives.
— New England lost five of its last seven visits to Miami.
— Under is 9-2 in their last 11 games.


— Dolphins won eight of their last ten games.
— Dolphins covered nine of their last ten games.
— Miami is 9-1-2 ATS in last 12 games as a home favorite.
— Dolphins have 16 takeaways in last seven games (+9)


Seahawks 20, Washington 15:
— Seattle won four of its last five games overall.
— Seahawks take over first place in NFC West.
— Last five games, Seahawks outscored foes 71-21 in first half.
— Last six Seattle games stayed under the total.
— Seahawks won field position by ten yards.


— Backup QB Haskins was 38-55/295 passing; he is 3-9 as an NFL starter.
— Loss snaps Washington’s four-game win streak.
— Washington outscored last seven opponents 120-37 in second half.
— Washington converted 10-17 third down plays, outgained Seattle 353-302.


Bears 33, Minnesota 27
— Bears ran for 199 yards, scored seven of nine times they had ball.
— Last four games, Chicago scored 31.0 ppg.
— Bears won field position by 13 yards in this game.
— Bears won five of their last six games with Minnesota.


— Vikings split last four games, giving up 27 ppg.
— Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in their last four games.
— Vikings won field position in only one game so far this year (1-12-1)
— Minnesota is 1-6 ATS as a home favorite TY.
— Seven of eight Viking home games went over the total.


Baltimore 40, Jaguars 14
— Jaguars lost their last 13 games; they’re now in line for #1 pick in draft.
— Last four weeks, Jacksonville gave up 190 rushing yards/game.
— On first series, Jaguars picked off pass on 1-yard line, then gave up a safety on offense.
— Jacksonville in first half: 5 drives, 61 yards, outscored 2-0 by Ravens’ defense.


— Baltimore won last three games, scoring 34-47-40 points.
— On their first eight drives, Ravens scored 5 TD’s, tried 2 FG’s.
— Ravens lost field position in only one game this season.
— Over is 4-1 in Baltimore’s last five games.


Arizona 33, Eagles 26:
— Eagles lost five of last six games; they’re 1-6 SU on road.
— Philly is 2-7-1 SU outside their division.
— Eagles are 4-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-9-1 if they allow more than 21.
— Eagles trailed 16-0 after first quarter, would’ve led had they not failed on 2-point plays when it was 26-20/26-26.


— Cardinals drove 86 yards for game-winning TD with 7:17 left.
— Arizona has a one-game lead for the #7-seed (last playoff spot)
— Murray threw ball for 406 yards, three TD’s.
— Hopkins caught nine passes for 169 yards.


NJ Jets 23, Rams 20
— Jets scored TD on first drive of each half.
— Jets scored on first drive in their last eight games, best in NFL.
— Jets blocked punt in 2nd quarter, started drives on LA’s 27/22-yard line.
— Third down conversions: Jets 7-17, Rams 2-11.


— Rams fall out of first place in NFC West.
— LA’s first six series: 23 plays, 68 yards, zero points.
— Rams lost three of four games vs AFC East this year.
— LA had only two plays that gained 20+ yards.


Chiefs 32, New Orleans 29:
— Chiefs won their last nine games, are 0-5-1 ATS in last six.
— Kansas City won all eight of its road games this year (3-4-1 ATS)
— Chiefs outgained Saints 411-285; they had 34 first downs, Saints 15.
— Last six games, Kansas City allowed 26.3 ppg.


— New Orleans lost its last two games, both by 3 points.
— Saints ran only 52 plays; Chiefs ran 92 plays.
— Third down conversions: Chiefs 9-18, Saints 1-11.
— Saints scored only once on seven first half drives.


Dallas 41, 49ers 33:
— 49ers lost six of their last seven games SU.
— SF is 5-16 SU in last 21 games Garoppolo didn’t play.
— Last seven games, SF was outscored 101-55 in first half.
— 49ers are 5-7 ATS in last 12 games as a favorite away from home.


— Dallas was outgained 458-291, but was +4 in turnovers.
— Cowboys won field position by 17 yards.
— Dallas was leading at halftime in five of last seven games.
— Four of last five Dallas games went over the total.

 

[CNOTES]

267NORTH TEXAS -268 APPALACHIAN ST
NORTH TEXAS are 2-15 ATS (-14.5 Units) after playing a game at home in the last 3 seasons.


269TULANE -270 NEVADA
TULANE is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) off a conference game in the current season.


271UCF -272 BYU
UCF is 2-10 ATS (-9 Units) after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored in the last 3 seasons.


273GA SOUTHERN -274 LOUISIANA TECH
LOUISIANA TECH is 6-0 ATS (6 Units) after a bye week in the last 3 seasons.


275FLA ATLANTIC -276 MEMPHIS
MEMPHIS are 21-38 ATS (-20.8 Units) as an favorite of 3.5-10 since 1992.


277HAWAII -278 HOUSTON
HAWAII is 24-47 ATS (-27.7 Units) vs. good offenses (>31 PPG) since 1992.


287W KENTUCKY -288 GEORGIA ST
W KENTUCKY is 14-3 ATS (10.7 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Long Sheet


Monday, December 21


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NORTH TEXAS (4 - 5) vs. APPALACHIAN ST (8 - 3) - 12/21/2020, 2:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NORTH TEXAS is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NORTH TEXAS is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NORTH TEXAS is 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
NORTH TEXAS is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NORTH TEXAS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
NORTH TEXAS is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
APPALACHIAN ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games this season.
APPALACHIAN ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
APPALACHIAN ST is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
APPALACHIAN ST is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Tuesday, December 22


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TULANE (6 - 5) vs. NEVADA (6 - 2) - 12/22/2020, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULANE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
TULANE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after playing a conference game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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UCF (6 - 3) vs. BYU (10 - 1) - 12/22/2020, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Wednesday, December 23


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GA SOUTHERN (7 - 5) vs. LOUISIANA TECH (5 - 4) - 12/23/2020, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISIANA TECH is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after a bye week over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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FLA ATLANTIC (5 - 3) vs. MEMPHIS (7 - 3) - 12/23/2020, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 21-38 ATS (-20.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
MEMPHIS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Thursday, December 24


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HAWAII (4 - 4) vs. HOUSTON (3 - 4) - 12/24/2020, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HAWAII is 93-124 ATS (-43.4 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
HAWAII is 4-21 ATS (-19.1 Units) in road games after a bye week since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Saturday, December 26


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W KENTUCKY (5 - 6) vs. GEORGIA ST (5 - 4) - 12/26/2020, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
W KENTUCKY is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
W KENTUCKY is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NCAAF

Week 17

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Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Monday, December 21


Appalachian State @ North Texas
Appalachian State
Appalachian State is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games
Appalachian State is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
North Texas
North Texas is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
North Texas is 6-19 ATS in its last 25 games




Tuesday, December 22


Tulane @ Nevada
Tulane
Tulane is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Tulane is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Nevada
Nevada is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Nevada's last 7 games


Central Florida @ Brigham Young
Central Florida
Central Florida is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Central Florida's last 10 games
Brigham Young
Brigham Young is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games




Wednesday, December 23


Louisiana Tech @ Georgia Southern
Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games
Louisiana Tech is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Georgia Southern
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Georgia Southern's last 5 games
Georgia Southern is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games


Memphis @ Florida Atlantic
Memphis
Memphis is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Memphis's last 9 games on the road
Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida Atlantic's last 5 games at home




Thursday, December 24


Hawaii @ Houston
Hawaii
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hawaii's last 5 games
Hawaii is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Houston
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games




Saturday, December 26


Western Kentucky @ Georgia State
Western Kentucky
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Western Kentucky's last 5 games
Western Kentucky is 2-8-2 ATS in its last 12 games
Georgia State
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Georgia State's last 10 games
Georgia State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games




-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Dunkel


Week 17

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 17


Bowl Games


Myrtle Beach Bowl
Appalachian State vs North Texas
Appalachian State (8-3)
— App State won seven of its last nine games.
— ASU was minus-6 in turnovers in its three losses, +6 in its wins.
— App State has 8 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— ASU has 115 returning starts on the offensive line.
— App State has a senior QB with 37 career starts.
— ASU is 1-4 ATS this year as a double digit favorite.
— App State won its last five bowls, scoring 31+ points in all five.


North Texas (4-5)
— North Texas allowed 31+ points in eight of its nine games.
— Mean Green allowed 200+ rushing yards in six of last eight games.
— North Texas has 6 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— Mean Green has 38 returning starts on the offensive line.
— North Texas has a soph QB with 9 career starts.
— Mean Green are 4-5 ATS in last 8 games as road underdogs.
— North Texas lost last three bowls, giving up 46.7 ppg.

 

[CNOTES]

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


12/19/2020 13-16-1 45.00% -2300 Detail
12/18/2020 2-5-1 31.25% -1750
12/12/2020 11-11-1 50.00% -550 Detail
12/11/2020 6-0-0 100.00% +3000 Detail
12/10/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/06/2020 2-2-0 100.00% -1.00 Detail
12/05/2020 29-21-0 58.00% +29.50 Detail
12/03/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +9.50 Detail


Totals...........67-59-3.....53.17%....+10.50

 

[CNOTES]

Tuesday’s 6-pack
Interesting Week 16 NFL spreads:
— Cincinnati @ Houston (-9)
— Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh (-2.5)
— Chicago (-7.5) @ Jacksonville
— Carolina @ Washington (-2.5)
— NJ Giants @ Baltimore (-10)
— Atlanta @ Kansas City (-10.5)


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 319,086
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.


Quote of the Day
“I think I’ve always said that it’s sort of the manifest destiny of the league that you expand at some point. I’d say it’s caused us to maybe dust off some of the analyses on the economic and competitive impacts of expansion. We’ve been putting a little bit more time into it than we were pre-pandemic. But certainly not to the point that expansion is on the front burner.”
NBA commissioner Adam Silver


Tuesday’s quiz
In the baseball movie For Love of the Game, where Kevin Costner is a pitcher for the Tigers, what veteran actor plays his catcher?


Monday’s quiz
2015 was the last time an NFL team made the playoffs with a losing record; Carolina Panthers won the NFC South, with a 7-8-1 record.


Sunday’s quiz
Florida State was the last football team other than Clemson to win the ACC title, in 2014.


**************************


Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but…….


13) Its never fun to lose your job, but losing it four days before Christmas as to be especially bad; Carolina Panthers fired GM Marty Hurney Monday- the teams wants someone who is more analytical and data-driven to be their GM.


12) Detroit Lions fired special teams coach Brayden Coombs Monday; apparently he called a fake punt Sunday without consulting any of the other coaches. When you do that, the play damn well better work, but it did not, and now Coombs is unemployed.


Lions trailed 32-18 when they faked the punt; game ended with Tennessee winning 46-25.


Coombs is son of Ohio State defensive coordinator Kerry Coombs, who was the defensive backs coach for the Titans last year.


11) Kentucky Wildcats are 1-5 so far this basketball season, their worst start since 1927; the last time a team got an at-large bid to the NCAAs after starting a season 1-5 or worse was 1999, when the Texas Longhorns went 19-13 (13-3 in Big X) in Rick Barnes’ first year in Austin.


10) NHL will have a 56-game regular season, starting January 13.


NBA starts its regular season with two games Tuesday, a full slate of games Wednesday.


9) Was interesting to hear how some college teams have opted out of bowl games because their players just want to go home for the holidays. Kids have been in a routine since June/July where they have been tested for COVID three times a week, and isolated from their families.


8) Tennessee Vols’ senior QB Jarrett Guarantano will transfer away from Knoxville; he got benched in favor of younger guys recently. Guarantano winds up with 6,174 yards passing, 38 touchdowns and 17 interceptions in 41 games played for the Vols.


Guarantano has another year to play due to this year being a free year for all the players, it doesn’t count against their eligibility.


Speaking of Tennessee, they opted out of the Liberty Bowl because of COVID issues; Army takes their place and will play West Virginia in Memphis Saturday.


7) RIP to Hall of Fame linebacker Kevin Greene, who passed away Monday at age 58. Greene was a great player for the Steelers/Rams/Panthers. RIP, sir.


6) 9 of the 32 current NFL head coaches grew up in Pennsylvania, which seems like a lot.


5) Eagles coach Doug Pederson baffles me; he loves to go for two points when the Eagles score a TD, but trailing 16-0 in Arizona Sunday, Philly scores a TD and they kick the PAT instead of trying for a 2-point play that would’ve cut the lead in half. Go figure.


4) Anyone who tells you that Randy Moss was a better receiver than Jerry Rice is wrong, and this is coming from a Rams’ fan who has no love for anything 49er-related. Rice was the best wide receiver ever, and he did it quietly. Nothing wrong with that.


3) Washington is only NFL team this season that hasn’t scored a point on their first drive of a game, but with two weeks left in the season, they lead the NFC East.


2) Appalachian State 56, North Texas 28:
— App State ran ball for 502 yards (12.9 yards/carry)
— Cameron Peoples ran ball 22 times for 319 yards.
— Both teams had 100+ yards in penalties.
— App State won its last six bowls, scoring 31+ points in all five.
— North Texas lost last four bowls, giving up 49.0 ppg.


1) Cincinnati 27, Steelers 17:
— Steelers were 11-0 at one point; now they’re 11-3.
— Last four games, Steelers scored 17 ppg.
— Pittsburgh threw ball for only 78 yards.
— Steelers are now one game ahead of Cleveland in AFC North.


— Cincinnati gets its first win over Steelers in last dozen tries.
— Bengals had lost previous five games overall by combined 124-50.
— Total yardage was 244-230 Bengals.
— Cincinnati is 4-1-1 ATS this season as a home underdog.

 

[CNOTES]

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 22


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


TULN at NEV 03:30 PM
TULN -2.5
U 57.5


UCF at BYU 07:00 PM
BYU -6.0
O 76.0

 

[CNOTES]

Tuesday, December 22


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TULANE (6 - 5) vs. NEVADA (6 - 2) - 12/22/2020, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULANE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
TULANE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after playing a conference game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UCF (6 - 3) vs. BYU (10 - 1) - 12/22/2020, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Tuesday, December 22


Tulane @ Nevada
Tulane
Tulane is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Tulane is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games


Nevada
Nevada is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Nevada's last 7 games


Central Florida @ Brigham Young
Central Florida
Central Florida is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Central Florida's last 10 games


Brigham Young
Brigham Young is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games




***************************************


NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up


Bowl Games


Dec 22


Idaho Potato Bowl, Boise
Tulane (6-5) vs Nevada (6-2)
— Tulane won four of last five games, after a 2-4 start.
— Green Wave allowed 24 or fewer points in wins, 38.8 ppg in losses.
— Green Wave has 5 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Tulane has 70 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Green Wave are playing a freshman QB with 18 TD’s, 5 INT’s.
— Tulane is 5-3 ATS this year in games with a single digit spread.
— Tulane won four of last five bowls, winning 41-24/30-13 last two years.


— Nevada lost two of last three games after a 5-0 start.
— Wolf Pack allowed 30-34 points in its losses, 21.5 ppg in wins.
— Nevada has 10 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Wolf Pack has 77 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Nevada’s soph QB has 18 career starts.
— Wolf Pack is 2-2 ATS this year in games with a single digit spread.
— Nevada is 2-3 in its last five bowls; this is their 3rd straight bowl.
— Nevada lost 30-21 to Ohio U in this bowl last year.


Boca Raton Bowl
Central Florida (6-3) vs BYU (10-1)
— Central Florida won four of last five games, after a 2-2 start.
— UCF gained 455+ yards in seven of their nine games.
— Knights have 8 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— UCF has 62 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Knights have a sophomore QB with 21 career starts.
— UCF is 3-1 ATS this year in games with a single digit spread.
— Knights are 2-3 in last five bowls; average total in last three, 68.7.


— BYU had its first loss of year December 5, at Coastal Carolina.
— Eight of BYU’s ten wins are by 17+ points.
— Cougars beat Navy (55-3), Houston (43-26) of AAC.
— Cougars have 8 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— BYU has 110 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Cougars have a junior QB with 28 career starts.
— BYU is 3-0 ATS this year in games with a single digit spread.
— BYU is 2-3 in its last five bowls; this is their 3rd straight bowl.

 

[CNOTES]

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


12/22/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/19/2020 13-16-1 45.00% -2300 Detail
12/18/2020 2-5-1 31.25% -1750
12/12/2020 11-11-1 50.00% -550 Detail
12/11/2020 6-0-0 100.00% +3000 Detail
12/10/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/06/2020 2-2-0 100.00% -1.00 Detail
12/05/2020 29-21-0 58.00% +29.50 Detail
12/03/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +9.50 Detail


Totals...........68-62-3.....52.30%....-1.00

 

[CNOTES]

Wednesday’s 6-pack
Over/under NBA win totals (72-game season):
— Portland Trailblazers 40.5
— Sacramento Kings 28.5
— San Antonio Spurs 28.5
— Toronto Raptors 41.5
— Utah Jazz 41.5
— Washington Wizards 29.5


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 321,968
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.


Quote of the Day
“What we’re really proud of is the first name of our team, which is Cleveland. Regardless of how we felt about it, what was important was how other people who it was affecting felt about it. I don’t think anybody was ever trying to be disrespectful. But that wasn’t a good enough answer anymore.”
Cleveland Indians manager Terry Francona, on the team switching mascots


Wednesday’s quiz
When was last time a team won back-to-back NBA titles?


Tuesday’s quiz
In the baseball movie For Love of the Game, where Kevin Costner is a pitcher for the Tigers, John C. Reilly plays the Tigers’ catcher.


Monday’s quiz
2015 was the last time an NFL team made the playoffs with a losing record; Carolina Panthers won the NFC South, with a 7-8-1 record.


************************


Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings…….


13) Much like the 49ers did in September, Cleveland Browns are playing back/back games in the Meadowlands, playing the Jets this week after beating the Giants last week.


12) Speaking of the 49ers, San Francisco QB Nick Mullens may need Tommy John surgery on his elbow; the 49ers added QB Josh Rosen to their roster, plucking him off Tampa Bay’s practice squad. He will back up CJ Beathard for the 49ers’ last two games.


11) Monday night was first time since 1986 the Steelers didn’t have any first downs in their first five series of a game- they had only two first downs the whole first half.


10) NBA teams have skill development coaches who work with players on improving shooting, passing, all kinds of skills; it makes a huge difference. Take Kawhi Leonard.


In two years at San Diego State, Leonard shot 20.5%/29.1% behind the arc; he shot 49.7% inside the arc in two years as an Aztec. He was the 15th pick in the 2001 pick. Go figure.


In the NBA, Leonard is a 38.3% shooter behind the arc, a longer shot than in college and he is a 53.3% shooter inside the arc. San Antonio had a shooting coach named Chip Engelland- he played for Duke- who worked wonders with Leonard and helped make him really, really rich.


9) NC State 79, North Carolina 76:
— State beat Carolina for only 4th time in last 30 series games.
— Wolfpack led 46-29 in first half.
— State’s freshman G Moore scored 17 points off the bench.


8) Texas Tech 69, Oklahoma 67:
— Tech’s first two Big X games (1-1) were decided by total of three points.
— Oklahoma was 17-27 on the foul line, Tech 9-10.


7) Kansas 79, West Virginia 65:
— Jayhawks were 16-37 behind the arc; they’ve won their last eight games.


6) Iowa 70, Purdue 55:
— Hawkeyes bounce back from their Gonzaga loss with strong effort here.
— Iowa was 10-14 on foul line, Purdue 1-3.


5) Wichita State 82, South Florida 77 OT
— Shockers win first two AAC games, by 5-4 points.
— USF jumped out to a 27-14 lead.
— Lot of whistles: Bulls were 27-41 on foul line; Wichita 22-33.


4) Former big league OF Sam Fuld was named general manager of the Phillies; Fuld played in the majors as recently as 2015. 39 years old is young to be a major league GM, but the guy who will make the final decisions in Philly is Dave Dombrowski.


3) College football coaches lead a nomadic existence; LSU had a lousy year, so they’re shuffling lot of their coaches. Same thing at Michigan, where they fired their defensive coordinator, who had been there five years, which is a long time for a college assistant.


2) Nevada 38, Tulane 27:
— Nevada QB Strong threw for 271 yards, five TD’s.
— Wolf Pack had two guys run for 100+ yards each.


1) BYU 49, Central Florida 23:
— Cougars rang up 655 yards, led 35-10 at halftime.
— BYU QB Wilson threw for 425 yards, three TD’s.

 

[CNOTES]

Wednesday, December 23


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


GA SOUTHERN (7 - 5) vs. LOUISIANA TECH (5 - 4) - 12/23/2020, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISIANA TECH is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after a bye week over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


FLA ATLANTIC (5 - 3) vs. MEMPHIS (7 - 3) - 12/23/2020, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 21-38 ATS (-20.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
MEMPHIS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in December games since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Wednesday, December 23


Louisiana Tech @ Georgia Southern
Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games
Louisiana Tech is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games


Georgia Southern
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Georgia Southern's last 5 games
Georgia Southern is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games


Memphis @ Florida Atlantic
Memphis
Memphis is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Memphis's last 9 games on the road


Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida Atlantic's last 5 games at home


-------------------------------------------




LOUISIANA TECH vs. GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Skip Holtz remarkable bowl mark, 6-0 SU with La Tech, and has won seven in a row outright dating to USF tenure.
Skip 2-3 as dog in 2020 but entering this season was 19-8-1 in role with Bulldogs.
GSU no covers last two bowls, also just 2-6 vs. spread last 8 away from Statesboro.


Tech Edge: La Tech, based on team and bowl trends.


MEMPHIS vs. FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Memphis no covers last six as chalk vs. FBS opposition.
Tigers are 2-10 vs. spread last 12 vs. FBS foes.
Also 0-5 SU and vs. line last five bowls.
FAU remarkably 4-0 SU and vs. line all-time in bowls (Schnellenberger 2007-08, Lane Kiffin 2017 & ‘19).
Though Willie Taggart surprisingly yet to covers in a bowl (0-2 with USF; also left WKU & Oregon before bowl dates in 2012 & ‘17, respectively).
Owls no covers last three in 2020 though were 1-0 as dog (Kiffin 2-1 as dog LY).


Tech Edge: FAU, based on bowl and team trends.




------------------------------------




NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up


Bowl Games


Dec 23


New Orleans Bowl
Louisiana Tech (5-4) vs Georgia Southern (7-5)
— Tech is 4-0 when it scores 31+ points, 1-4 when it does not.
— Bulldogs gave up 330+ rushing yards in two of last three games.
— Tech has 6 starters back on offense, 2 starters back on defense.
— Bulldogs have 58 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Tech has a senior QB with 26 career starts.
— Bulldogs are 2-3 ATS this season as an underdog.
— Tech won its last five bowls, allowing total of 24 points in last three.


— Eagles want to run ball; they ran for 200+ yards in 9 of 12 games.
— Georgia Southern lost three of its last four games.
— Eagles have 8 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— Bulldogs have 90 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Tech has a senior QB with 46 career starts.
— Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS this year in games with single digit spread.
— Georgia Southern won two of its three bowl games.


Montgomery Bowl
Memphis (7-3) Florida Atlantic (5-3)
— Memphis won four of its last five games.
— Tigers are 5-0 if they score 34+ points, 2-3 if they don’t.
— Tigers have 6 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Memphis has 57 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Tigers’ senior QB has started 38 games.
— Memphis is 1-4 ATS this season as a favorite.
— Memphis lost its last five bowls, giving up 38.4 ppg.


— FAU lost its last two games, 20-3/45-31, after a 5-1 start.
— Owls gave up 574 rushing yards in their last two games.
— FAU is allowing only 16.5 ppg this season.
— FAU has 6 starters back on offense, 3 starters back on defense.
— Owls have 54 returning starts on the offensive line.
— FAU has a junior QB with 34 career starts.
— Owls are 2-4 ATS in games this year with a single digit spread.
— FAU is 4-0 in bowl games, scoring 50-52 points in last two; they were an underdog in two of the four games.

 

[CNOTES]

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 23


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


LT at GASO 03:00 PM
GASO -7.0
U 47.0


MEM at FAU 07:00 PM
FAU +9.0
O 52.5