Continuing this argument. Seahawks are an average redzone team scoring a TD 59% of the time they are in the redzone ( I am sure this number is significantly higher if that their starting field position but for this argument ignore that)
So there is a 59% chance Seattle Scores a TD.. That means chances are Seattle is scoring a TD and then Rams must score a TD to win, again I think around a mintue left with no timeouts if the best they can hope for.
But in reallife, once Seattle gets that first down, they are running that ball 3 times, If they get in the endzone great, if not they kick essentially an extra point with seconds left.
It was never the right call in my opinion - unless it was an option play that they knew if Seattle did this, X would be wide open. But if not you punt the ball. YOU ARE WINNING! And all you need to do is get a stop to seal it. If you miss the first down, they game is over. that 21% is bullshit..
You did not watch this game.
This is what happened.
The Seahawks were behind by 15 points.
Late third quarter, they convert on a 3rd & 17, and when on to score a TD to trail by 8 points, that drive was 82 yards.
The Rams get the ball, a couple of first downs and punt.
The Seahawks pinned back at their 9 yard line goes 91 yards for another TD, keyed by Russell Wilson scrambles and long runs. Miss the 2 pt conversion, a two point game.
The Rams go play action on first down the next two plays, grabbing some momentum back, and they go down field 80 yards to score a TD which seems to be the clinching score.
The Seahawks however, take the ball and goes 80 yards again to make it a two point game.
This lead to the Rams final possession of the game, fake punt, fumble, game over.
Before that, Seattle scored three touchdowns back to back to back, going 80 more yards each time.
If Fischer's players do not convert that fake punt, he loses. If Fischer punts from his 18 yard line, he loses.